Multidecadal Time Scales Research Articles

North Atlantic oscillation controls multidecadal changes in the North Tropical Atlantic−Pacific connection

By exciting subtropical teleconnections, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) during boreal spring can trigger El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the following boreal winter, thereby providing a precursor for ENSO predictability. However, this NTA−ENSO connection is not stationary, and it varies considerably over multidecadal timescales, which cannot be directly explained by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation or the global warming trend. Here we show that multidecadal changes in the NTA−ENSO connection are principally controlled by multidecadal variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During the positive phase of the NAO, the amplification of the NTA impact on ENSO mainly arises from strengthening of the boreal spring mean precipitation over the equatorial Atlantic and enhancement of the persistence of NTA SST anomalies, which enhance the NTA influence by exciting stronger and more persistent subtropical teleconnections. Our findings show that multidecadal variability of the NAO is key to understanding the impacts of the NTA SST on the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Climate variability of the southern Amazon inferred by a multi-proxy tree-ring approach using Cedrela fissilis Vell.

The analysis of climate variability and development of reconstructions based on tree-ring records in tropical forests have been increasing in recent decades. In the Amazon region, ring width and stable isotope long-term chronologies have been used for climatic studies, however little is known about the potential of wood traits such as density and chemical concentrations. In this study, we used well-dated rings of Cedrela fissilis Vell. from the drought-prone southern Amazon basin to assess the potential of using inter-annual variations of annually-resolved ring width, wood density, stable oxygen isotope (δ18OTR) measured in tree-ring cellulose and concentration of Sulfur (STR) and Calcium (CaTR) in xylem cells to study climate variability. During wet years, Cedrela fissilis produced wider and denser rings with higher CaTR and lower STR, as well as depleted δ18OTR values. During dry years, a wider range of responses was observed in growth, density and STR, while lower CaTR and enriched δ18OTR values were found. The annual centennial chronologies spanning from 1835 to 2018 showed good calibration skills for reconstructing local precipitation, evapotranspiration (P-PET), Amazon-wide rainfall, as well as climate modes related to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies such as El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO), Tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA), and the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) oscillations. CaTR explained 42 % of the variance of local precipitation (1975–2018), RW explained 30 % of the P-PET variance (1975–2018), while δ18OTR explained 60 % and 57 % of the variance of Amazon rainfall (1960–2018) and El Niño 3.4 (1920–2018), respectively. Our results show that a multi-proxy tropical tree-ring approach can be used for high-reliable reconstructions of climate variability over Amazon basin at inter-annual and multidecadal time scales.

The economic value of a climate service for water irrigation. A case study for Castiglione District, Emilia-Romagna, Italy

The use of climate services to support decision makers in incorporating climate change adaptation in their practices is well established and widely recognized. Their role is particularly relevant in a climate sensitive sector like agriculture where they can provide evidence for the adoption of transformative solutions from seasonal to multi-decadal time scales. Adaptation solutions are often expensive and irreversible in the short/medium run. Accordingly, end users should have a reliable reference to make decisions. Here, we propose and apply a methodology, co-developed with service developers and a representative potential user, to assess the value of the IRRICLIME climate service, whose information is used to support decisions on climate smart irrigation investment by water planners in a sub-irrigation district in Italy. We quantify the value of the information provided by the climate service, that we consider the intrinsic value of the service, or the value of adaptation. We demonstrate that under three different climate change scenarios, the maximum potential value of IRRICLIME could range between 2,985 €/ha and 7,480 €/ha.

An 1800-year oxygen-isotope record of short- and long-term hydroclimate variability in the northern neotropics from a Jamaican marl lake

Hydroclimate variability on multi-decadal timescales has been a prominent feature of the circum-Caribbean region over the common era, with marked dry intervals noted in particular for the period 800–950 CE coinciding with the Terminal Classic Period (the so-called Terminal Classic Drought: TCD) in Mesoamerica, and with the Little Ice Age from about 1500 to 1800 CE, linked to complex ocean-atmosphere interactions. Previous compilations of palaeoclimate reconstructions have revealed a clear precipitation dipole between northern and southern Mesoamerica over the common era, which is consistent with meteorological data and modelling experiments. However, patterns of variability elsewhere within the region are less well understood, although palaeoclimate records do point to spatial complexity. Here, we present a ∼sub-decadal-scale lake-sediment hydroclimate reconstruction based on ostracod-shell stable isotopes from Wallywash Great Pond, Jamaica, covering the past ∼1800 years, which fills a spatial gap in records for the region. Variations in δ18O values at this site are a proxy for changes in effective moisture and they reveal a marked wet phase over the Terminal Classic Period (TCP), suggesting that the precipitation dipole over northern and southern Mesoamerica may have an east to west component. This is supported by some previous studies, although additional sites are required from strategic localities within the region to confirm this. The Little Ice Age interval at Wallywash is drier than the TCP, although the signal is less clear than at some sites within the wider region, suggesting that regional complexity in hydroclimate has characterised this interval as well.

Shoreline modelling on timescales of days to decades

AbstractClimate change is resulting in global changes to sea level and wave climates, which in many locations significantly increase the probability of erosion, flooding and damage to coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. Therefore, there is a pressing societal need to be able to forecast the morphological evolution of our coastlines over a broad range of timescales, spanning days-to-decades, facilitating more focused, appropriate and cost-effective management interventions and data-informed planning to support the development of coastal environments. A wide range of modelling approaches have been used with varying degrees of success to assess both the detailed morphological evolution and/or simplified indicators of coastal erosion/accretion. This paper presents an overview of these modelling approaches, covering the full range of the complexity spectrum and summarising the advantages and disadvantages of each method. A focus is given to reduced-complexity modelling approaches, including models based on equilibrium concepts, which have emerged as a particularly promising methodology for the prediction of coastal change over multi-decadal timescales. The advantages of stable, computationally-efficient, reduced-complexity models must be balanced against the requirement for good generality and skill in diverse and complex coastal settings. Significant obstacles are also identified, limiting the generic application of models at regional and global scales. Challenges include the accurate long-term prediction of model forcing time-series in a changing climate, and accounting for processes that can largely be ignored in the shorter term but increase in importance in the long term. Further complications include coastal complexities, such as the accurate assessment of the impacts of headland bypassing. Additional complexities include complex structures and geology, mixed grain size, limited sediment supply, sources and sinks. It is concluded that with present computational resources, data availability limitations and process knowledge gaps, reduced-complexity modelling approaches currently offer the most promising solution to modelling shoreline evolution on daily-to-decadal timescales.

Revisiting causality using stochastics on atmospheric temperature and CO 2 concentration

Revisiting causality using stochastics on atmospheric temperature and CO ₂ concentration

A chronologically reliable record of 17,000 years of biomass burning in the Lake Victoria area

Fire regimes differ across tropical and subtropical biomes depending on multiple parameters whose interactions and levels of importance are poorly understood, particularly at multidecadal and longer time scales. In the catchment of Lake Victoria, savanna, rainforest, and Afromontane vegetation have interspersed over the last 17,000 years, which may have influenced the fire regime and vice versa. However, climate and humans are most often the primary drivers of fire regime changes, and analysing their respective roles is critical for understanding current and future fire regimes. Besides a handful of radiocarbon dates on grassy charcoal, the timescales of published studies of Lake Victoria sediment chronologies rely mostly on dates of bulk sediment, and chronological disagreements persist, mainly due to variation between estimations of the 14C reservoir effect. Here, we provide independent 14C chronologies for three Late Glacial and Holocene lacustrine sediment cores from various water depths and compare them with the biostratigraphy to establish a new chronological framework. We present the first continuous sedimentary charcoal records from Lake Victoria; these suggest that fire activity varied substantially during the past 17,000 years. Our new pollen records reveal the long-term vegetation dynamics. The available evidence suggests that before human impact increased during the Iron Age (ca. 2400 yr BP), biomass burning was linked to climate and vegetation reorganizations, such as warming, drying, and the expansion of rainforests and savannas. Our results imply that climate can trigger substantial fire regime changes and that vegetation responses to climate change can co-determine the fire regime. For instance, biomass burning decreased significantly when the rainforest expanded in response to increasing temperatures and moisture availability. Such insights into the long-term linkages between climate, vegetation, and the fire regime may help to refine ecosystem management and conservation strategies in a changing global climate.

Mapping Arctic Sea-Ice Surface Roughness with Multi-Angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer

Sea-ice surface roughness (SIR) is a crucial parameter in climate and oceanographic studies, constraining momentum transfer between the atmosphere and ocean, providing preconditioning for summer-melt pond extent, and being related to ice age and thickness. High-resolution roughness estimates from airborne laser measurements are limited in spatial and temporal coverage while pan-Arctic satellite roughness does not extend over multi-decadal timescales. Launched on the Terra satellite in 1999, the NASA Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument acquires optical imagery from nine near-simultaneous camera view zenith angles. Extending on previous work to model surface roughness from specular anisotropy, a training dataset of cloud-free angular reflectance signatures and surface roughness, defined as the standard deviation of the within-pixel lidar elevations, from near-coincident operation IceBridge (OIB) airborne laser data is generated and is modelled using support vector regression (SVR) with a radial basis function (RBF) kernel selected. Blocked k-fold cross-validation is implemented to tune hyperparameters using grid optimisation and to assess model performance, with an R2 (coefficient of determination) of 0.43 and MAE (mean absolute error) of 0.041 m. Product performance is assessed through independent validation by comparison with unseen similarly generated surface-roughness characterisations from pre-IceBridge missions (Pearson’s r averaged over six scenes, r = 0.58, p < 0.005), and with AWI CS2-SMOS sea-ice thickness (Spearman’s rank, rs = 0.66, p < 0.001), a known roughness proxy. We present a derived sea-ice roughness product at 1.1 km resolution (2000–2020) over the seasonal period of OIB operation and a corresponding time-series analysis. Both our instantaneous swaths and pan-Arctic monthly mosaics show considerable potential in detecting surface-ice characteristics such as deformed rough ice, thin refrozen leads, and polynyas.

Sixty years of ice form and flow at Camp Century, Greenland

AbstractThe magnitude and azimuth of horizontal ice flow at Camp Century, Greenland have been measured several times since 1963. Here, we provide a further two independent measurements over the 2017–21 period. Our consensus estimate of horizontal ice flow from four independent satellite-positioning solutions is 3.65 ± 0.13 m a−1at an azimuth of 236 ± 2°. A portion of the small, but significant, differences in ice velocity and azimuth reported between studies likely results from spatial gradients in ice flow. This highlights the importance of restricting inter-study comparisons of ice flow estimates to measurements surveyed within a horizontal distance of one ice thickness from each other. We suggest that ice flow at Camp Century is stable on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales. The airborne and satellite laser altimetry record indicates an ice thickening trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 cm a−1since 1994. This thickening trend is qualitatively consistent with previously inferred ongoing millennial-scale ice thickening at Camp Century. The ice flow divide immediately north of Camp Century may now be migrating southward, although the reasons for this divide migration are poorly understood. The Camp Century flowlines presently terminate in the vicinity of Innaqqissorsuup Oqquani Sermeq (Gade Gletsjer) on the Melville Bay coast.

Spectroscopic Mapping of Io’s Surface with HST/STIS: SO2 Frost, Sulfur Allotropes, and Large-scale Compositional Patterns

Io’s intense volcanic activity results in one of the most colorful surfaces in the solar system. Ultraviolet and visible-wavelength observations of Io are critical to uncovering the chemistry behind its volcanic hues. Here, we present global, spatially resolved ultraviolet-visible spectra of Io from the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph on the Hubble Space Telescope, which bridge the gap between previous highly resolved imagery and disk-integrated spectroscopy, to provide an unprecedented combination of spatial and spectral detail. We use this comprehensive data set to investigate spectral endmembers, map observed spectral features associated with SO2 frost and other sulfur species, and explore possible compositions in the context of Io surface processes. In agreement with past observations, our results are consistent with extensive equatorial SO2 frost deposits that are stable over multidecade timescales, widespread sulfur-rich plains surrounding the SO2 deposits, and the enrichment of Pele’s pyroclastic ring and the high-latitude regions in metastable short-chain sulfur allotropes.

A surface temperature dipole pattern between Eurasia and North America triggered by the Barents–Kara sea-ice retreat in boreal winter

The Arctic has experienced dramatic climate changes, characterized by rapid surface warming and sea-ice loss over the past four decades, with broad implications for climate variability over remote regions. Some studies report that Arctic warming may simultaneously induce a widespread cooling over Eurasia and frequent cold events over North America, especially during boreal winter. In contrast, other studies suggest a seesaw pattern of extreme temperature events with cold weather over East Asia accompanied by warm weather in North America on sub-seasonal time scales. It is unclear whether a systematic linkage in surface air temperature (SAT) exists between the two continents, let alone their interaction with Arctic sea ice. Here, we reveal a dipole pattern of SAT in boreal winter featuring a cooling (warming) in the Eurasian continent accompanied by a warming (cooling) in the North American continent, which is induced by an anomalous Barents–Kara sea-ice decline (increase). The dipole operates on interannual and multidecadal time scales. We find that an anomalous sea-ice loss over the Barents–Kara Seas triggers a wavenumber one atmospheric circulation pattern over the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere, with an anomalous high-pressure center over Siberia and an anomalous low-pressure center over high-latitude North America. The circulation adjustment generates the dipole temperature pattern through thermal advection. Our finding has important implications for Northern Hemisphere climate variability, extreme weather events, and their prediction and projection.

Comparisons of climate change characteristics in typical arid regions of the Northern Hemisphere

In recent years, with the frequent occurrence of severe drought events, climate change in arid regions has become one of the research hotspots. However, previous studies mainly focused on a specific arid region, and the correlations and differences of drought among various arid regions have not been clearly understood. In this study, based on the latest monthly gridded dataset of the CRU, we compare the characteristics of climate change and its relationship with large-scale oceanic oscillation indexes in the three typical arid regions of Pan-Central-Asia (PCA), North America (NAm) and North Africa (NAf) in multiple perspectives. The results show that the precipitation in the PCA and NAm has increased obviously over the past 80 years, while the NAf precipitation has decreased. After the 1980s, the climate in the PCA and NAm show warm-wet types. This type of the former continues to the present, but the latter’s has changed to a warm-dry type since the 21st century. The NAf climate remains the warm-dry type since the 1990s. Nonetheless, the arid and semi-arid climate patterns in the three typical arid regions remain unchanged. The NAm precipitation has an anti-phase variability pattern compared with the NAf precipitation on both interdecadal and multi-decadal time scales. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has a great influence on the precipitation of the PCA and NAm. The temperature of three arid regions is significantly related to the variations in the Arctic oscillation (AO). In the inland arid region, the contribution of strong warming effect during cold season to the whole year is much greater than that during warm season, while the contribution of the coastal arid regions in warm season is greater. The precipitation in the mid-latitude arid regions is dominated by cold-season precipitation regardless of whether these regions are near the sea or not. The precipitation in the low-latitude arid regions has little difference between cold and warm seasons.

Millennial-scale climate variability over land overprinted by ocean temperature fluctuations

Variations in regional temperature have widespread implications for society, but our understanding of the amplitude and origin of long-term natural variability is insufficient for accurate regional projections. This is especially the case for terrestrial temperature variability, which is currently thought to be weak over long timescales. By performing spectral analysis on climate reconstructions, produced using sedimentary pollen records from the Northern Hemisphere over the last 8,000 years, coupled with instrumental data, we provide a comprehensive estimate of regional temperature variability from annual to millennial timescales. We show that short-term random variations are overprinted by strong ocean-driven climate variability on multi-decadal and longer timescales. This may cause substantial and potentially unpredictable regional climatic shifts in the coming century, in contrast to the relatively muted and homogeneous warming projected by climate models. Due to the marine influence, regions characterized by stable oceanic climate at sub-decadal timescales experience stronger long-term variability, and continental regions with higher sub-decadal variability show weaker long-term variability. This fundamental relationship between the timescales provides a unique insight into the emergence of a marine-driven low-frequency regime governing terrestrial climate variability and sets the basis to project the amplitude of temperature fluctuations on multi-decadal timescales and longer.

Dynamics of total phosphate in the greater Everglades

Controlling and reducing excess phosphate is a fundamental objective of Everglades restoration. The immense, complex structural composition of South Florida landscapes and ecosystems, coupled with the multidecadal time scale of restoration, present a challenge to integrated assessment of restoration efforts. We address this with state space based convergent cross mapping to identify drivers and links of phosphate in response to construction and operation of stormwater treatment areas, engineered wetlands designed to sequester phosphate. Results identify drivers of phosphate dynamics, connecting dynamic response to nutrient and water management actions. Convergent cross mapping and state space dimensional reduction provide data-driven, model-free indicators of phosphate dynamics. We also identify low-flow conditions along the Everglades National Park inflow boundary as influential drivers of phosphate concentrations.

Freshwater Flux Variability Lengthens the Period of the Low-Frequency AMOC Variability.

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits interdecadal to multidecadal variability, yet the role of surface freshwater flux (FWF) variability in this AMOC variability remains unclear. This study isolates the contribution of FWF variability in modulating AMOC through a partially coupled experiment, in which the effect of the interactive FWF is disabled. It is demonstrated that the impact of the coupled FWF variability enhances the persistence of density and deep convection anomalies in the Labrador Sea (LS), thus lengthening the period of the AMOC oscillation on multidecadal timescale and suppressing its ∼30-year periodicity. Further lead-lag regressions illuminate that the more persistent LS density anomalies are maintained by two mechanisms: (a) The local temperature-salinity coupling through the evaporation and (b) a downstream propagation along the East Greenland Current of the extra salinity anomaly due to the sea ice melting changes associated with an atmosphere forcing over the southern Greenland tip.

Interdecadal to Multidecadal Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon Over the Past Half Millennium

AbstractThe East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) plays a crucial role for ecosystems and societies in East Asia past, present, and future. However, substantial uncertainties remain regarding EASM variability on interdecadal to multidecadal timescales because of the short length of instrumental data in East Asia. This study extended the EASM circulation index in the modern meteorological studies to the paleoclimate over the past half‐millennium (1470–1998 CE) to reconcile the understanding of the EASM variability in paleoclimate and modern meteorological studies. The EASM index is reconstructed based on the common signal from the three main types of the proxy records (the tree rings, speleothems, and historical documentary data) related to EASM. The reconstructed EASM index captures the simultaneous changes of the “Meiyu precipitation” and the southwesterly anomalies in South China on interdecadal to multidecadal timescales, which is a dynamic pattern visible and well‐documented in the modern meteorology. Analysis of the reconstructed EASM index suggests that the interdecadal to multidecadal EASM variability is closely associated with the Pacific‐Japan teleconnection pattern, which acts as a bridge between the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific. It also indicates that the EASM variability over the recent 30 years (1992–2021 CE) falls within the range of natural variability over the past half‐millennium.

Constraining low-frequency variability in climate projections to predict climate on decadal to multi-decadal timescales – a poor man's initialized prediction system

Abstract. Near-term projections of climate change are subject to substantial uncertainty from internal climate variability. Here we present an approach to reduce this uncertainty by sub-selecting those ensemble members that more closely resemble observed patterns of ocean temperature variability immediately prior to a certain start date. This constraint aligns the observed and simulated variability phases and is conceptually similar to initialization in seasonal to decadal climate predictions. We apply this variability constraint to large multi-model projection ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), consisting of more than 200 ensemble members, and evaluate the skill of the constrained ensemble in predicting the observed near-surface temperature, sea-level pressure, and precipitation on decadal to multi-decadal timescales. We find that the constrained projections show significant skill in predicting the climate of the following 10 to 20 years, and added value over the ensemble of unconstrained projections. For the first decade after applying the constraint, the global patterns of skill are very similar and can even outperform those of the multi-model ensemble mean of initialized decadal hindcasts from the CMIP6 Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP). In particular for temperature, larger areas show added skill in the constrained projections compared to DCPP, mainly in the Pacific and some neighboring land regions. Temperature and sea-level pressure in several regions are predictable multiple decades ahead, and show significant added value over the unconstrained projections for forecasting the first 2 decades and the 20-year averages. We further demonstrate the suitability of regional constraints to attribute predictability to certain ocean regions. On the example of global average temperature changes, we confirm the role of Pacific variability in modulating the reduced rate of global warming in the early 2000s, and demonstrate the predictability of reduced global warming rates over the following 15 years based on the climate conditions leading up to 1998. Our results illustrate that constraining internal variability can significantly improve the accuracy of near-term climate change estimates for the next few decades.

Long-term response of an estuarine ecosystem to drastic nutrients changes in the Changjiang River during the last 59 years: A modeling perspective

The riverine nutrient inputs to the ocean reflects land-use changes and can affect the health of coastal environments over time, especially for a highly-anthropogenically influenced river-estuary-shelf system. To investigate the impact of riverine inputs on the Changjiang Estuary ecosystem at a multi-decadal time scale where long-term observations are limited, we built a three-dimensional physics-biogeochemistry-coupled model system based on the Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) and the European Regional Shelf Ecosystem Model (ERSEM). Our model successfully simulated the temporal and spatial nutrient variabilities in the river-estuary-shelf con7tinuum from 1960 to 2018. The results showed increasing trends of nitrate and phosphate and fluctuating silicate variability, thereby leading to rising nitrogen (N) to phosphorus (P) ratios and decreasing silicon (Si) to N and P ratios. Such changes in the stoichiometric relationship of nutrient species also alter the community structure of the primary producers in estuaries. Our model showed a general increase of diatoms over the 59 years, corresponding to decreased proportions of micro-phytoplankton and pico- phytoplankton. With different backgrounds of light and nutrient limitations in the river and inner shelf, our model suggests that the trend of the diatom proportion in the light-limited river mouth is more associated with silicate variability, with decreased diatom proportions occurring in the 2000s. Our model relates the hydroclimate, nutrient load, and biogeochemical cycling, reproducing estuarine ecosystem variability and clarifying issues such as the causality of the ecosystem interactions.

Inappropriateness of space-for-time and variability-for-time approaches to infer future dryland productivity changes

Drylands are among the most susceptible ecosystems to global climate change. It has been suggested that a future surface drying trend would largely reduce gross primary productivity (GPP) in drylands, given that water is the dominant factor controlling the spatial distributions (i.e., space-for-time analogy) and inter-annual fluctuations (i.e., variability-for-time analogy) of dryland GPP. However, whether these approaches using spatial and inter-annual diagnostics are valid to infer long-term dryland GPP remains unknown. In this study, we evaluate whether space-for-time and variability-for-time approaches, which are based on the empirical scaling between GPP and dryness, are able to capture future changes in dryland GPP as simulated by 18 Earth system models (ESMs). Using observational data during 1958–2014, we identify a strong coupling between dryland GPP and the annual aridity index (AI, the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration) over both spatial and inter-annual scales. This GPP-AI scaling is used to predict future GPP changes throughout the 21st Century based on the future AI changes projected by ESMs. The space-for-time, and variability-for-time approaches predict an overall decrease of dryland GPP by -23.66 ± 10.93 (mean ±1 standard deviation) and -3.86 ± 2.22 gC m−2 yr−1, respectively, in response to future surface drying, however, the ESM projections exhibit a strong dryland GPP increase (+81.42 ± 36.82 gC m−2 yr−1). This inconsistency is because the space- and variability-based approaches, which rely on the spatial or short-term GPP-AI relationships, cannot capture the slowly-evolving but key determinant of dryland GPP changes over multi-decadal or longer timescales, which, in ESMs, is the ecosystem physiological response to rising CO2. Our study questions the validity of “the drier the less productive” hypothesis rooted in the space-for-time and variability-for-time theories, and the implementation of such theories to constrain future ecosystem changes.

Multidecadal Regime Shifts in North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water Formation in a Coupled Atmosphere‐Ocean‐Sea Ice Model

AbstractA regime shift in the formation mechanisms of the North Pacific subtropical mode water (NPSTMW) and its causes were investigated using a 2,000‐year‐long pre‐industrial control simulation of a fully coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐sea ice model. The volume budget analysis revealed that the air‐sea flux and ocean dynamics (OD) were the two primary driving mechanisms for NPSTMW formation, but their relative importance has periodically alternated in multidecadal timescales of approximately 50–70 years. The regime shift of the NPSTMW formation was closely related to the meridional (50 years) and zonal (70 years) movements of the Aleutian Low (AL). When AL shifted to the south or east, it induces the sea surface height anomalies propagating westward from the central North Pacific and preconditions the NPSTMW formation, thus the OD become relatively more important.