Multiparty Elections Research Articles

Democracy and States' Compliance with Regional and Sub-Regional Election Benchmarks in Africa: The 28 November 2011 Elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo in Retrospect

Since the beginning of the century elections have been held regularly in several African countries. Unfortunately, these elections have generally failed to comply with regional and sub-regional electoral norms adopted to promote credible and transparent elections and contribute to democratic consolidation. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is a representative and dramatic case of the region's experience with democracy and multiparty elections. This article reflects on democracy and the 28 November 2011 presidential and parliamentary elections in the DRC. It revisits the concepts of democracy, elections and the rule of law, which are at the heart of this reflection, and the relationship among them. It examines the electoral laws and processes, the social-political and social environment as well as national and international reactions to these elections in the DRC, which is a representative but dramatic case study of Africa's experience with democracy and elections. It then assesses the DRC's compliance with the regional and sub-regional norms and principles governing democratic elections. It concludes that the DRC unfortunately failed to comply and draws some lessons about democratic consolidation in Africa.

Historical dictionary of Benin

Benin, one of Africa's smallest and least viable countries, has always attracted considerable academic attention because of its rich traditions and history, as well as its turbulent political evolution. At one point it held the continental record for the highest number of coups d'D'etat, and since 1972 was ruled by an iron-fisted military junta that formally adopted Marxism and declared a People's Republic. In 1989 Benin once again attracted global attention as the country became the first in Africa to liberalize its political and economic system, hold competitive multi-party elections, and transfer power to a civilian head of state. The dictionary, thoroughly revised for this third edition, traces the dominant historical, social, economic, and political features of the country and outlines the biographies of some of the most important personalities who have played a role in the Beninois public scene. Because much of the literature covering Benin appears in French, the work serves not merely as a basic reference work on Benin, but also as one of only a handful of works on the country in English. The bibliography includes a large body of literature that accumulated since the previous edition. It remains the only such comprehensive multilingual bibliography available today, and a basic guide to the literature for students and experts alike.

Polling Accuracy in a Multiparty Election

Polling Accuracy in a Multiparty Election

Hostages of peace: the politics of radio liberalization in Somaliland

Somaliland has held several competitive and multiparty elections that have been cited by international election monitors as being “free and fair.” While political competition has been tolerated, or even encouraged by the governments in power, there has been a continued reluctance to allow private radio stations. Citing the possibility of destabilizing Somaliland's delicate peace, arguments against the liberalization of the media include concerns of radios used to further political polarization, mobilize groups to escalate simmering conflicts and violence, and the capacity of the government to regulate media outlets. This article locates these arguments against media liberalization in the context of Somaliland's larger nation- and state-building project suggesting that in transitions from war to peace, no matter how prolonged, there are very real concerns about processes of institutionalization and the sequencing of democratic reforms.

Party matters: the institutional origins of competitive hegemony in Tanzania

Electoral authoritarianism has emerged as a primary mode of authoritarian rule in the post-Cold War era. It is also a notably heterogeneous phenomenon, in terms of both its impact upon incumbents and the quality of contestation. This article investigates a specific type of electoral authoritarian outcome, a competitive hegemony. In competitive hegemonies regimes are able to dominate elections by large vote margins, but with comparatively much lower levels of electoral fraud and coercion. Using a case study of Tanzania and its ruling party Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), this article argues that distinct investments made under single-party rule into party institutionalization and the incorporation of subsistence-based peasants provided CCM with additional sources of elite cohesion, strong mobilization capacity, and therefore greater stability. The article shows how during multiparty elections elite defection has in fact been minimal, and voting patterns largely coincide with infrastructural investments made as part of Tanzania's socialist development programme, ujamaa. Moreover, while Tanzania's opposition parties have made important strides in recent years in terms of institutionalization, they are still precluded from competing effectively in large portions of the country where demand for new parties is low.

The Role of Political Ideas in Multi-Party Elections in Tanzania: Refuting Essentialist Explanations of African Political Systems

This article is a contribution to the criticism of neo-patrimonial and 'hybridregime' explanations of the capacity of dominant parties to retain political control in Africa (which rest on essentialist views of African society) and to the broader discussion of the nature of African democracy. It analyses the election manifestoes of Tanzania's dominant party, Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM), from the beginning of the multi-party era in 1995, contextualised in a discussion of political events and external perceptions of the party. The article examines the emphasis that CCM has placed on the use of political ideas and on its responsiveness to public opinion, rather than using the manipulation of elections and other non-democratic political practices, as would be predicted by neo-patrimonial theory. It is argued that CCM used political ideas to hold on to popular support from the beginning of the multi-party era to the 2010 elections, during which period its popularity has fluctuated, while the democratic standards that applied to the running of elections and other aspects of political life in Tanzania have continued to improve.

The Role of Political Ideas in Multi-Party Elections in Tanzania: Refuting Essentialist Explanations of African Political Systems

Negative assessments of African democracy still dominate the literature, and Tanzania has been described as a ‘hybrid regime’—formally a multi-party democracy where the dominant party, Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM), engages in non-democratic practices to ensure that it remains in power, including the manipulation of electoral processes, and in widespread neopatrimonial practices to protect the position of the political elite. This article is a contribution to the criticism of neo-patrimonial and ‘hybrid-regime’ explanations of the capacity of dominant parties to retain political control in Africa (which rest on essentialist views of African society) and to the broader discussion of the nature of African democracy. It uses an analysis of CCM election manifestoes from the beginning of the multi-party era in 1995, contextualised in a discussion of political events and external perceptions of the party, to examine the emphasis that CCM has placed on the use of political ideas and on its responsiveness to public opinion, rather than using the manipulation of elections and other non-democratic political practices, as would be predicted by neo-patrimonial theory. It argues that CCM used political ideas to hold on to popular support from the beginning of the multipartyera to the 2010 elections, during which period its popularity has fluctuated, while the democratic standards that applied to the running of elections and other aspects of political life in Tanzania have continued to improve. During this time the party developed a legitimacy narrative of which the policies of the one-party state formed a key part, as the ideas that they contained continued to underpin concepts of political community in Tanzania.

From Military Rule to Electoral Authoritarianism: The Reconfiguration of Power in Myanmar and its Future

In 2011, after more than 20 years of direct rule, the Tatmadaw transferred formal authority to a nominally civilian government following Myanmar's first multi-party election since 1990 as part of a transformation of the political system to a presidential republic. Within this new arena, though, electoral manipulations and constitutional stipulations have brought to power a government consisting mostly of former military officers who are closely aligned to the Tatmadaw. These reforms, therefore, have changed the nature and organization of the ruling regime from that of a military one to an Electoral Authoritarian form. Elections now have become the main conduit to accessing power. Despite the maintenance of authoritarian rule (and the unclear motivations promoting such system change) the opening of the political realm and civil society creates avenues for new actors, identities, interests, and relationships to be constructed. A number of developments over the past few years are tentatively positive signs that Myanmar is undergoing a fundamental political change distinct from the years of military rule. In particular, the interactions of actors within and across civil-military, central-regional, and foreign relations will come to define the future trajectory of these reforms. Ultimately, the willingness of the Tatmadaw to abandon its praetorian ethos of directing the political process, specifically over security policy areas, will determine whether the system remains primarily in the service of regime maintenance or becomes an arena of increasingly diverse, free, and fair political discord with the possibility of power being assumed by those that are non-military.

Polarization in the Media During an Election Campaign: A Dynamic Network Model Predicting Support and Attack Among Political Actors

In multiparty election campaigns, many political parties and candidates compete for media attention, voters, and a government majority. Negative campaigning, which is often newsworthy, is an attractive strategy in the competition for media attention. However, political support for another party offers an alternative strategy because it signals preferred government coalitions. The research question to be addressed here is: What is prompting a political party to either support or attack another party in a news medium on a specific day in an election campaign? We analyze statements of support and attack among politicians and political parties reported in the news media during the 2006 Dutch national election campaign. Combining hypotheses from research in negative campaigning and the mediatization of politics with concepts from social network analysis, we predict whether a reported statement expresses support or an attack among political actors. Party size, party ideology, and incumbency of the political actors are important static predictors. Dynamic predictors, which indicate how the campaign has evolved thus far, include agreement or disagreement on issues recently raised in the media as well as recent attacks and support statements. The dynamic predictors are needed to explain polarization among political actors in the media during the campaign. The results show that reported statements affect the course of the election campaign.

Aid Dependence in Cambodia: How Foreign Assistance Undermines Democracy

Aid Dependence in Cambodia: How Foreign Assistance Undermines Democracy. By Sophal Ear. New York, NY: Columbia University Press, 2013. Hardcover: 185pp. As this review was being written, Cambodia was preparing for its fourth general election since the historic elections sponsored by the United Nations (UN) in 1993. Those elections helped propel Cambodia from war to peace, and from autarky to global integration. As result, the Cambodian economy has, since the turn of the century, experienced on average near double-digit annual growth, driven mainly by the tourism and garment sectors. Politically, Cambodia has held regular multi-party elections at the national and sub-national levels. Despite these developments, there exist diverse assessments of Cambodia's political and economic trajectory, varying from the image of glass half-full to half-empty. Public opinion surveys conducted by the International Republican Institute--a U.S. based agency that promotes democracy around the world--have consistently shown that over three-quarters of Cambodians shared favourable view that Cambodia headed in the right direction. Sophal Ear, an Assistant Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in California, offers glass half empty diagnosis. He suggests that while on the surface Cambodia appears to be headed in the right direction, closer scrutiny reveals signs for concern and that the country is one broken government away from disaster (p. 133). According to the author, Cambodia has become a kleptocracy cum thugocracy (p. 8) in which the political and economic elites have colluded to exploit the country's natural resources and divert foreign aid for personal gain as well as to perpetuate the country's patronage based politics. In the meantime, the quality of democracy has declined with an absence of inter-institutional accountability, deterioration of the rule of law and tightly restricted civil liberties as the long ruling Prime Minister Hun Sen and his Cambodian People's Party (CPP) monopolize power. Ear postulates that Cambodia's growth has occurred without development, signified by the country's rising inequality, declining freedom and widespread poverty. Growth without development in Cambodia is attributable to the lack of problem closely associated with the generous inflow of development assistance. Foreign aid is hindrance to sustainable development for it enables the government to forgo tax collection, condition that perpetuates the absence of governmental accountability and responsiveness. The author faults the Western donor community for being short sighted and self-serving, basing the continuation of their assistance on Cambodia's political stability and Western interests rather than on promoting governance and democracy. Donors, Ear rightly argues, equate democracy with elections and this equation has perpetuated the facade of democracy in Cambodia. In certain respects, Western governments face dilemma in pushing for genuine democracy and governance due to the emergence of alternative donors--particularly China--whose aid to Cambodia is not linked to improvements in human rights and democracy. Cambodia's linkage to these non-traditional donors serves as countervailing force to Western donors' attempts at promoting democracy and human rights. The book devotes considerable attention to explaining the paradox of economic growth under conditions of weak governance by examining three sectors--garments, rice and livestock. Rather than an outcome of good governance, the garment sector's growth has been made possible by three factors; first, the presence of strong and unified Garment Manufacturing Association with history of working with the Ministry of Commerce to reduce corruption and create predictability; second, the favourable external market under conditions of preferential treatment based on garment sector's labour practices that respect workers' rights; and third, these labour practices are the product of semi-corporatist arrangements involving producers, the government and the International Labour Organization. …

Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution: Causes and Impact

Tunisians were the first in the region to oust a long-time dictator, one who had ruled the country for twenty-three years. It was a genuine popular revolution, started without a leader, and was nonpolitical, nonideological, and nonreligious. After toppling President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali’s regime, new political parties were established and free and fair multiparty elections were held, a giant step forward in the march toward democracy. The economy continues to be a deep source of discontent, however. Youth blame the government’s inaction for continued unemployment. The Ennahda-led coalition needs to get the right mix of resources to make progress in reducing unemployment. Tunisians cannot do it alone; external assistance is badly needed.

A Pacifist in the Pacific

Myanmar, sitting on the border between South and Southeast Asia, reflects a historically oppressive state with internal struggle as surrounding countries compete for influence. In 1990, the government promised multi-party elections only to ignore the results and imprison advocates for democracy, including Aung San Suu Kyi, the face of Myanmar’s democratic movement. Afterwards, the United States adopted economic sanctions and restricted ties with the country. Recently, leaders in Myanmar have reached out to the United States for the first time in decades. With policy towards Myanmar at a crossroads, how can the United States pursue its own interests while influencing Myanmar’s slow transition to political and economic change?

Civil war and democracy in West Africa: conflict resolution, elections and justice in Sierra Leone and Liberia

In the aftermath of explosive civil wars in Africa during the 1990s and 2000s, the establishment of multi-party elections has often been heralded by the West as signaling the culmination of the conflict and the beginning of a period of democratic rule. However, the outcomes of these elections are very rarely uniform, with just as many countries returning to conflict as not. Here, David Harris uses the examples of Sierra Leone and Liberia to examine the nexus of international and domestic politics in these post-conflict elections. In doing so, he comes to the conclusion that it is political, rather than legal, solutions that are more likely to enhance any positive political change that has emerged from the violence. This book is thus of significance to Western and African policy makers, and also to students and scholars who wish to engage with the critical issues of conflict resolution and reconciliation both in Sierra Leone and Liberia in particular and in the wider region in general.

HAS DEMOCRATIZATION REDUCED INFANT MORTALITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA? EVIDENCE FROM MICRO DATA

Does democracy help babies survive in sub-Saharan Africa? By using retrospective fertility surveys conducted in 28 African countries, I compare the survival of infants born to the same mother before and after democratization to disentangle the effect of democracy from that of changes in population characteristics, which is infeasible with country-level statistics on infant mortality. I find that infant mortality falls by 1.2 percentage points, 12% of the sample mean, after democratization in the post-Cold War period. Relevant aspects of democracy appear to be the combination of multiparty elections and leadership change.

Fading Colours? A Synthetic Comparative Case Study of the Impact of “Colour Revolutions”

The “colour revolutions” sparked a wave of optimistic commentaries about democratization in semi-authoritarian states. Today, however, there is considerable debate over whether these “revolutions” produced real reform and what lessons can be drawn for future democratization efforts. We utilize a synthetic control method of comparative case studies to evaluate political and institutional changes following “colour revolutions.” The results show divergent patterns of reform. Serbia experienced the most thorough changes in democratization and control of corruption. Ukraine's revolt increased democratic freedoms, but failed to control corruption. Georgia's protests marginally improved the control of corruption, but did little to improve the political system. Kyrgyzstan appears to have become worse as a result of its revolution. The synthetic comparisons suggest that these divergent outcomes are largely due to influences present well in advance of political upheaval. These findings shed critical light on the sources of cyclical political change in semi-authoritarian countries and the effect of domestic structural factors on democracy promotion. * Paper prepared for presentation at the 2012 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, New Orleans, LA. The author would like to thank Matt Rukavina for his research assistance, and Jeronimo Cortina and Lydia Tiede for reviewing previous drafts. All errors are the author's. The wave of popular revolutions that swept away the semi-authoritarian leadership in Serbia, Ukraine, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan brought with them high expectations. Western politicians rushed to praise the dramatic popular protests, and scholars hastened to explain the success of these states in removing the semi-authoritarian leaders that had become a defining feature of politics in the region. These so-called “colour revolutions” even became a model for popular movements in other postCommunist countries and in the Middle East. Yet, eleven years after the Bulldozer Revolution in Serbia started the colour revolution phenomenon, there is substantial debate about whether these really were “revolutionary” events in terms of producing substantial political change. The optimism that characterized original revolutions has long faded, and most of these countries look much as they did before. Given the widespread influence of these revolutions, questions about the impact of colour revolutions also raise serious concerns for the Arab Spring and other recent popular democratic movements. They also raise broader 1 Semi-authoritarian regimes are political systems that combine multiparty elections with a number of authoritarian patterns, such that they cannot be considered fully democratic. These have been labeled “hybrid,” “semi-democratic,” “electoral democracies,” “competitive authoritarian,” and others. We utilize the term “semi-authoritarian” as an umbrella term for these regimes. See Larry Diamond, “Thinking About Hybrid Regimes,” Journal of Democracy 52(2002): 2135; Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way, “International Linkage and Democracy,” Journal of Democracy 16(2005): 2034; Marc Morje Howard and Philip G. Roessler, “Liberalizing Electoral Outcomes in Competitive Authoritarian Regimes,” American Journal of Political Science 50(2006): 365-381. 2 Valerie J. Bunce and Sharon L. Wolchik, “International Diffusion and Postcommunist Electoral Revolutions,” Communist and Postcommunist Studies 39(2010): 283-304; Joshua A. Tucker, “Enough! Electoral Fraud, Collective Action Problems, and Post-Communist Colored Revolutions,” Perspectives on Politics 5(September 2007): 535-551; Howard and Roessler 2006; Donnacha O Beachain and Abel Polese, “Introduction: What's In a Colour?” in Donnacha O Beachain and Abel Polese (eds.), The Colour Revolutions in the Former Soviet Republics (London: Routledge, 2010); Susan Stewart, “Democracy Promotion Before and After the 'Colour Revolutions,'” Democratization 16(2009): 645-660. 3 Bunce and Wolchik 2006; Mark R. Beissinger, “Structure and Example in Modular Political Phenomena,” Perspectives on Politics 5(2007): 1207-1230. 4 Thomas Carothers, “The 'Jasmine Revolution' in Tunisia,” Carnegie Middle East Center (2011, online at http://carnegiemec.org/publications/?fa=42334).; Willie Lam, “Beijing Worried about 'Color Revolutions' Sweeping Middle East/North Africa,” China Brief 11(2011): 2-5. 5 Henry E. Hale, “Regime Cycles,” World Politics 58(2005): 133-165; Albert Cevallos, 'Whither the Bulldozer?” United States Institute of Peace, Special Report no 72 (2001, online at http://www.usip.org/pubs/specialreports/sr72.pdf); Paul D'Anieri, “What has Changed in Ukrainian Politics?” Problems of Post-Communism 52(2005): 82-91; Geir Flikke, “Pacts, Parties and Elite Struggle,” Europe-Asia Studies 60(2008): 375-396; Alexander J. Motyl, “Three Years After,” Harvard International Review 29(2008): 16-19; Pamela Jawad, “Diversity, Conflict and State Failure,” Cornell Occasional Paper, no 30-3 (2006); Lincoln A. Mitchell, “Democracy in Georgia Since the Rose Revolution,” Orbis 50(2006): 669-676; Katya Kalandadze and Mitchell A. Orenstein, “Electoral Protests and Democratization,” Comparative Political Studies 42(2009): 1403-1425.

Causes and Electoral Consequences of Party Policy Shifts in Multiparty Elections: Theoretical Results and Empirical Evidence

The spatial model of elections identifies factors that motivate party elites to shift their policy positions, including changes in voters' policy preferences, rival parties' policy shifts, past election results, and changes in party elites' valence images with respect to dimensions of evaluation such as competence and integrity. I review empirical studies on multiparty elections, i.e., elections involving three or more major parties, that evaluate party elites' policy responses to these factors, along with empirical studies on the electoral consequences of parties' policy shifts. This review reveals a paradox: on the one hand, empirical studies conclude that parties systematically shift their policy positions in response to the factors that spatial modelers have identified. On the other hand, there is only weak and inconsistent empirical evidence that voters actually perceive parties' policy shifts, and/or that these shifts have significant electoral consequences. Thus the predictions of spatial theory are largely verified, whereas the assumptions that underpin spatial theory are called into question.

The Path of the Former Yugoslav Countries to the European Union: From Integration to Disintegration and Back

The dissolution of the former Yugoslavia took place in a wider context of democratic changes all over Europe. The history of European international relations has been marked by processes of integration, disintegration, divisions, armed conflicts, and so on, caused by various ideological, religious and other reasons. Processes of democratization in many countries led to the organization of the first multiparty elections in multinational countries in Eastern and Middle Europe, which used to be founded on the concept of socialist ideology. At the time of its dissolution, the former Yugoslavia constituted six republics: Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia, and two autonomous provinces: Kosovo and Vojvodina. The authors indicate the basic disintegration movements in the process of the former Yugoslavia's dissolution, highlighting the viewpoint of international law and the aspects of possible reintegration in some other form of union. In light of the latest political aspirations, the question of (re)integration and/or disintegration of the former Yugoslav republics is understandable. However, taking into account the history and the war-related events of the early 1990s, the following question may be posed: Is that particular reunion a historical and political irony? In search of the answer to the latter question the authors emphasize a legal perspective, which recognizes the state as a dominant subject of international law (but not the only one), and analyse the aspect of its constituting the international community, and its recognition within that community.

Why the CCM won't lose: the roots of single-party dominance in Tanzania

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the factors contributing to single-party dominance in Tanzania. Despite the fact that Tanzania has had a multi-party democracy since 1995, the party which governed during single-party rule, the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), has won the vast majority of seats in the National Assembly in the first four multi-party elections. In order to understand the CCM's grip on power, this article analyses the results of a survey conducted amongst subsistence farmers in Tanzania, which provides information on farmers’ livelihood conditions, access to media and political views, and hence provides insight into the preferences underlying voting behaviour. It discusses the dominant reasons for CCM support, as well as the characteristics of farmers who are more likely to support an opposition party. It concludes by discussing possible policy options for enhancing political competition in Tanzania.

ASR Focus: The Political Economy of Democratic Reform in Kenya

Kenya's long quest for democratic reform since the first multiparty elections in 1991 has been inextricably enmeshed in a parallel struggle for fundamental socioeconomic reform. The essays in this special ASR Focus originated with a roundtable at the 2009 annual meetings of the African Studies Association in New Orleans that centered on the problems of and prospects for reform in Kenya-specifically, the efforts to forestall a repetition of the violence that took place in the aftermath of the 2007 elections and posed the most serious threat to the county's stability since independence in 1963. The speakers at the roundtable, whose presentations appear here in slighdy edited form, joined other students of Kenya politics to contemplate the underlying issues and challenges confronting the country in its effort to achieve that goal before the next national elections scheduled for late 2012 or early 2013.

Reform and Political Impunity in Kenya: Transparency without Accountability

Abstract:Kenya has been going through a period of political reform since 1991, when section 2A of the constitution, which had made Kenya a de jure one-party state, was repealed. This reform followed a prolonged struggle on the part of citizens both inside and outside the country, and their call for democracy was one that, after the fall of the Berlin Wall, was embraced by Western countries. Via diplomatic pressure and conditionality on aid, Western donors played an important role in the repeal of section 2A, the return of multiparty elections, and the creation and reform of a number of political institutions and offices via a separation of powers. But although these changes were supported by the political opposition and much of civil society in Kenya, they did not rise organically from the national struggle over political power. Nor did these reforms lead to a determination in the country to hold the political elite accountable for their transgressions. This article argues that modern Kenya's history of economic and political inequality has resulted in a population whose very divisions make it difficult for politicians to be disciplined. Accountability has two dimensions: the horizontal accountability among branches of government that is assured by checks and balances, and the vertical accountability of the state to its citizens. Vertical accountability depends on a constituency of like-minded citizens defending broad national interests, or an electorate with a collective identity or set of identities attached to the Kenyan nation. But in the absence of such shared goals and demands, narrow personal and local interests prevail, and politicians remain unaccountable to the nation as a whole.