Mortality Surveillance Research Articles

Iatrogenic Type A Dissection: Case Series and Surgical Management From a High-Volume Aortic Center

BackgroundIatrogenic type A aortic dissection is a rare complication of surgical and nonsurgical cardiac procedures associated with high morbidity. The purpose of this study was to describe the intraoperative incidence, surgical management, and outcomes of iatrogenic type A dissections at our institution. MethodsRetrospective review of our institution’s adult cardiac surgery database was performed between 2002 and 2018 to identify all iatrogenic type A aortic dissection repairs. Operative reports were reviewed for cause of dissection and repair strategy. Follow-up surveillance for mortality and need for aortic reintervention was queried as available. ResultsOverall, 36 patients undergoing iatrogenic type A repairs were identified (cardiac surgical incidence, 0.1%). Of these, 23 (63.9%) were related to open operation, 5 (13.9%) to percutaneous coronary interventions, 5 (13.9%) to thoracic endovascular repairs, and 3 (8.3%) to other endovascular procedures. Most patients underwent hemiarch repairs under circulatory arrest (28/36 [77.8%]), whereas total arch repair was required in 5 of 36 (13.9%). Among all patients, in-hospital mortality was 36.1% (13/36). Those who survived to discharge had low subsequent mortality, with no differences between endovascular and surgical causes (P = .797). On median follow-up of 3.1 years, need for redo aortic surgery was limited to 4 (11.1%) patients, all successfully treated with endovascular therapy. ConclusionsIatrogenic type A dissections represent a rare but serious complication of cardiac procedures, with high in-hospital mortality for those undergoing surgical repair. A repair strategy involving an open distal anastomosis and proximal root reconstruction ensures durable freedom from need for redo surgery.

Time-Varying Effect of Physical Activity on Mortality Among Myocardial Infarction Survivors: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study.

Physical activity (PA) is an important component of secondary prevention after myocardial infarction (MI). The mortality risk of MI survivors varies at different post-MI periods, yet the time-varying effect of total PA is unclear. We aimed to investigate the association between different volumes and patterns of total PA and mortality at different post-MI periods. Using data from the China Patient-centered Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events Million Persons Project, we divided the screened MI survivors into within-1-year and beyond-1-year groups based on the duration between their baseline interview and MI onset. Total PA was divided into insufficient ( 3000 metabolic equivalent of task [MET] minutes/week) and sufficient PA. Sufficient PA was further categorized as moderate and high (3000-4500 and 4500 MET minutes/week) volumes; leisure ( 50%) and non-leisure ( 50%) patterns. Data on mortality were derived from the National Mortality Surveillance System and Vital Registration of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Restricted cubic spline regression analyses were performed to examine the dose-response association between PA and mortality. During the follow-up (median 3.7 years) of the 20,653 post-MI patients, 751 patients died. In the within-1-year group, moderate (HR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.40 to 0.88) and high (0.63, 0.45 to 0.88) volumes and both patterns (leisure: 0.52, 0.29 to 0.94; non-leisure: 0.64, 0.46 to 0.88) of PA were all associated with significantly lower risk of mortality, compared with insufficient PA. In the beyond-1-year group, the association was observed in high volume (0.69, 0.56 to 0.86) and both patterns (leisure: 0.64, 0.48 to 0.87; non-leisure: 0.79, 0.65 to 0.97). A non-linear relationship between PA and mortality was found in the within-1-year group (p for non-linearity 0.001), while a linear relationship was demonstrated in the beyond-1-year group (p for non-linearity = 0.107). Sufficient total PA was associated with mortality risk reduction after MI, either leisure or non-leisure pattern. Different dose-response associations between PA and mortality were found at different post-MI periods. These results could promote individualized and scientifically derived secondary prevention strategies for MI.

Place of death among individuals with chronic respiratory diseases in China: Trends and associated factors between 2014 and 2020.

Chronic respiratory disease (CRD) is a common cause of mortality in China, but little is known about the place of death (POD) among individuals with CRD. Information about CRD-caused deaths was obtained from the National Mortality Surveillance System (NMSS) in China, covering 605 surveillance points in 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities. Both individual- and provincial-level characteristics were measured. Multilevel logistic regression models were built to evaluate correlates of hospital CRD deaths. From 2014 to 2020, a total of 1,109,895 individuals who died of CRD were collected by the NMSS in China, among which home was the most common POD (82.84%), followed by medical and healthcare institutions (14.94%), nursing homes (0.72%), the way to hospitals (0.90%), and unknown places (0.59%). Being male, unmarried, having a higher level of educational attainment, and being retired personnel were associated with increased odds of hospital death. Distribution of POD differed across the provinces and municipalities with different development levels, also presenting differences between urban and rural. Demographics and individual socioeconomic status (SES) explained a proportion of 23.94% of spatial variations at the provincial level. Home deaths are the most common POD (>80%) among patients with COPD and asthma, which are the two major contributors to CRD deaths. Home was the leading POD among patients with CRD in China in the study period; therefore, more attention should be emphasized to the allocation of health resources and end-of-life care in the home setting to meet the increasing needs among people with CRD.

Value of Verbal Autopsy in a Fragile Setting: Reported versus Estimated Community Deaths Associated with COVID-19, Banadir, Somalia.

Accurate mortality data associated with infectious diseases such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are often unavailable in countries with fragile health systems such as Somalia. We compared officially reported COVID-19 deaths in Somalia with COVID-19 deaths estimated using verbal autopsy. We interviewed relatives of deceased persons to collect information on symptoms, cause, and place of death. We compared these data with officially reported data and estimated the positive and negative predictive values of verbal autopsy. We identified 530 deaths during March-October 2020. We classified 176 (33.2%) as probable COVID-19 deaths. Most deaths (78.5%; 416/530) occurred at home and 144 (34.6%) of these were attributed to COVID-19. The positive predictive value of verbal autopsy was lower for home deaths (22.3%; 95% CI: 15.7-30.1%) than for hospital deaths (32.3%; 95% CI: 16.7-51.4%). The negative predictive value was higher: 97.8% (95% CI: 95.0-99.3%) for home deaths and 98.4% (95% CI: 91.5-100%) for hospital deaths. Conclusions Verbal autopsy has acceptable predictive value to estimate COVID-19 deaths where disease prevalence is high and can provide data on the COVID-19 burden in countries with low testing and weak mortality surveillance where home deaths may be missed.

Reclassification of the Etiology of Infant Mortality With Whole-Genome Sequencing

Understanding the causes of infant mortality shapes public health, surveillance, and research investments. However, the association of single-locus (mendelian) genetic diseases with infant mortality is poorly understood. To determine the association of genetic diseases with infant mortality. This cohort study was conducted at a large pediatric hospital system in San Diego County (California) and included 546 infants (112 infant deaths [20.5%] and 434 infants [79.5%] with acute illness who survived; age, 0 to 1 year) who underwent diagnostic whole-genome sequencing (WGS) between January 2015 and December 2020. Data analysis was conducted between 2015 and 2022. Infants underwent WGS either premortem or postmortem with semiautomated phenotyping and diagnostic interpretation. Proportion of infant deaths associated with single-locus genetic diseases. Among 112 infant deaths (54 girls [48.2%]; 8 [7.1%] African American or Black, 1 [0.9%] American Indian or Alaska Native, 8 [7.1%] Asian, 48 [42.9%] Hispanic, 1 [0.9%] Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, and 34 [30.4%] White infants) in San Diego County between 2015 and 2020, single-locus genetic diseases were the most common identifiable cause of infant mortality, with 47 genetic diseases identified in 46 infants (41%). Thirty-nine (83%) of these diseases had been previously reported to be associated with childhood mortality. Twenty-eight death certificates (62%) for 45 of the 46 infants did not mention a genetic etiology. Treatments that can improve outcomes were available for 14 (30%) of the genetic diseases. In 5 of 7 infants in whom genetic diseases were identified postmortem, death might have been avoided had rapid, diagnostic WGS been performed at time of symptom onset or regional intensive care unit admission. In this cohort study of 112 infant deaths, the association of genetic diseases with infant mortality was higher than previously recognized. Strategies to increase neonatal diagnosis of genetic diseases and immediately implement treatment may decrease infant mortality. Additional study is required to explore the generalizability of these findings and measure reduction in infant mortality.

Automatic electronic reporting improved the completeness of AMI and stroke incident surveillance in Tianjin, China: a modeling study

BackgroundAMI and stroke are the leading causes of premature mortality and hospitalizations in China. Incidence data at the population level for the two diseases is limited and the reliability and completeness of the existing incidence registry have not been investigated. We aim to assess if the completeness of case ascertainment of AMI and stroke incidence has improved since the implementation of electronic reporting and to estimate the incidence of AMI and stroke in Tianjin, China.MethodsWe applied the DisMod II program to model the incidence of AMI and stroke from other epidemiological indicators. Inputs include mortality rates from Tianjin’s mortality surveillance system, and the point prevalence, remission rates and relative risks taken from IHME’s Global Burden of Disease studies. The completeness of AMI and stroke incidence reporting was assessed by comparing the sex and age-specific incidence rates derived from the incidence surveillance system with the modeled incidence rates.ResultsThe age and sex standardized modeled incidence per 100,000 person-year decreased (p < 0.0001) from 138 in 2007 to 119 in 2015 for AMI and increased (p < 0.0001) from 520 in 2007 to 534 in 2015 for stroke. The overall completeness of incidence report was 36% (95% CI 35–38%) for AMI and 54% (95% CI 53–55%) for stroke. The completeness was higher in men than in women for both AMI (42% vs 30%, p < 0.0001) and stroke (55% vs 53%, p < 0.0001) and was higher in residents aged 30–59 than those aged 60 or older for AMI (57% vs 38%, p < 0.0001). The completeness of reporting increased by 7.2 (95% CI 4.6–9.7) and 15.7 (95% CI 14.4–16.9) percentage points for AMI and stroke, respectively, from 2007 to 2015 among those aged 30 or above. The increases were observed in both men and women (p < 0.0001) and were more profound (p < 0.0001) among those aged between 30 and 59 and occurred primarily during the 2010 and 2015 period.ConclusionsCompleteness of AMI and stroke incidence surveillance was low in Tianjin but has improved in recent years primarily owing to the incorporation of an automatic reporting component into the information systems of health facilities.

Better Metrics to Guide Public Health Policy: Lessons Learned From COVID-19 for Data Systems Improvement

As communities adjust COVID-19 policies, objective ‘metrics’ are needed to guide decisions. But metrics are only as good as their inputs. Most COVID-19 data are based on case surveillance. Individuals’ decisions to be tested depend on concerns about exposure and symptoms, as well as the availability of testing. These factors cause drop-offs at every step in the reporting process, so the numbers of actual cases, as well as deaths and hospitalizations, are far higher than reported, varying over time and among population subgroups.Metrics are used to compare among population groups and over time, so consistency in data systems is important. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) must provide leadership to standardize public health, hospital, and other data systems, not just case definitions. Public health emergencies are complex phenomena that cannot be summarized in a single indicator, so CDC should develop a balanced portfolio of metrics that together describe the epidemiologic situation and provide information to guide decision-making. Metrics are intended to inform—not decide—policy decisions that balance epidemiologic benefits and social and economic costs, taking into account the current state of the pandemic. Policymakers should avoid hard triggers and consider trends over weeks to months rather than daily numbers.Going forward, we must complement case counts with population estimation methods such as sampling, excess mortality, and wastewater surveillance. While ‘estimation’ sounds less precise than ‘counting,’ these methods can provide a more comprehensive and accurate assessment of the pandemic’s impact on different populations and as it changes over time.

COVID-19 mortality attenuated during widespread Omicron transmission, Denmark, 2020 to 2022.

BackgroundIt sparked considerable attention from international media when Denmark lifted restrictions against COVID-19 in February 2022 amidst widespread transmission of the new SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and a steep rise in reported COVID-19 mortality based on the 30-day COVID-19 death count.AimOur aim was to investigate how coincidental infections affected COVID-19 mortality estimates following the introduction of the Omicron variant in late 2021.MethodsWe compared the 30-day COVID-19 death count with the observed mortality using three alternative mortality estimation methods; (i) a mathematical model to correct the 30-day COVID-19 death count for coincidental deaths, (ii) the Causes of Death Registry (CDR) and (iii) all-cause excess mortality.ResultsThere was a substantial peak in the 30-day COVID-19 death count following the emergence of the Omicron variant in late 2021. However, there was also a substantial change in the proportion of coincidental deaths, increasing from 10-20% to around 40% of the recorded COVID-19 deaths. The high number of 30-day COVID-19 deaths was not reflected in the number of COVID-19 deaths in the CDR and the all-cause excess mortality surveillance.ConclusionOur analysis showed a distinct change in the mortality pattern following the introduction of Omicron in late 2021 with a markedly higher proportion of people estimated to have died with, rather than of, COVID-19 compared with mortality patterns observed earlier in the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating alternative mortality surveillance methods to more correctly estimate the burden of COVID-19 as the pandemic continues to evolve.

Maternal Mortality in a Rural District of Pakistan and Contributing Factors.

Pakistan is among the ten countries that account for 60% of global maternal mortality. Lack of accurate data on maternal mortality and a complex interrelation of access and quality of healthcare services, healthcare delivery system, and socio-economic and demographic factors contribute significantly to inadequate progress in reducing maternal mortality. A population-based prospective cohort study was conducted in a rural district of Pakistan using data obtained from an enhanced surveillance system. A total of 7572 pregnancies and their outcomes were recorded by 273 Lady Health Workers and 73 Community Health Workers over 2016-2017. Logistic regression was used to calculate the unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios (OR) for maternal mortality for each risk factor. Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) was derived from the ORs and risk factor prevalence. The study recorded 18 maternal deaths. The maternal mortality rate was estimated at 238/100,000 pregnancies (95% CI 141-376), and the maternal mortality ratio was 247/100,000 live births (95% CI 147-391). Half of the maternal deaths (9) were from obstetric hemorrhage, and 28% (5) from puerperal sepsis. Postpartum hemorrhage was associated with a 17-fold higher risk of maternal mortality (PAF = 40%) and puerperal sepsis with a 12-fold higher mortality risk (PAF = 29%) compared to women without these conditions. Women delivered by unskilled birth attendants had a three-fold (PAF = 21%), and women having prolonged labour had a fourfold risk of maternal mortality compared to those with these conditions. Women with leg swelling (47%) and pre-eclampsia (26%) are at seven times the risk of maternal mortality compared to those without these conditions. Mortality in women delivered by unskilled birth attendants was three times higher than with skilled attendants. The study, among a few large-scale prospective cohort studies conducted at the community level in a rural district of Pakistan, provides a better understanding of the risk factors determining maternal mortality in Pakistan. Poverty emerged as a significant risk factor for maternal mortality in the study area and contributes to the underutilization of health facilities and skilled birth attendants. Incorporating poverty reduction strategies across all sectors, including health, is urgently required to address higher maternal mortality in Pakistan. A paradigm shift is required in Maternal and Child health related programs and interventions to include poverty estimation and measuring mortality through linking mortality surveillance with the Civil Registration and Vital Statistics system. Accelerated efforts to expand the coverage and completeness of mortality data with risk factors to address inequalities in access and utilization of health services.

Mortality Surveillance During Winter Storm Uri, United States - 2021.

On February 12, 2021, Winter Storm Uri hit the United States. To understand the disaster-related causes and circumstances of death, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) activated media mortality surveillance. The team searched the internet dailyfor key termsrelated to Uri and compiled the information into a standardized media mortality surveillance database to conduct descriptive statistics. Between February 12 and March 2, 2021, the accessed media reported 136 Uri-related deaths from nine states. Most decedents were male (39%) and adults (62.5%). Exposure to extreme temperatures (47.1%) was the most common cause of death. Among indirect deaths, motor vehicle collision (12.5%), and carbon monoxide poisoning (7.4%) represented the top two circumstances. This was the first time CDC activated media mortality surveillance for a winter storm. Media mortality surveillance is useful in assessing the impact of a disaster and provides timely data for an all-hazards response approach.

Total Excess Mortality Surveillance for Real-Time Decision-Making in Disasters and Crises.

Crises such as Hurricane Maria and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have revealed that untimely reporting of the death toll results in inadequate interventions, impacts communication, and fuels distrust on response agencies. Delays in establishing mortality are due to the contested definition of deaths attributable to a disaster and lack of rapid collection of vital statistics data from inadequate health system infrastructure. Readily available death counts, combined with geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic data, can serve as a baseline to build a continuous mortality surveillance system. In an emergency setting, real-time Total, All-cause, Excess Mortality (TEM) can be a critical tool, granting authorities timely information ensuring a targeted response and reduce disaster impact. TEM measurement can identify spikes in mortality, including geographic disparities and disproportionate deaths in vulnerable populations. This study recommends that measuring total, all-cause, excess mortality as a first line of response should become the global standard for measuring disaster impact.

Comitê de mortalidade materna e a vigilância do óbito em Recife no aprimoramento das informações: avaliação ex-ante e ex-post

Abstract Objectives: to evaluate the contribution of the Maternal Mortality and Death Surveillance Committee for women of childbearing age (WCA) and maternal mortality in the magnitude of maternal mortality and in the qualification of the causes of death in Recife, Brazil. Methods: ex ante/ex post evaluation, ecological, of the annual indicators of mortality of WCA, maternal and case study of declared maternal deaths according to causes of death before and after surveillance. Deaths of WCA (2010 and 2017) were analyzed. The percentage of investigation of deaths of WCA was calculated; their rates and maternal mortality ratio (MMR) were estimated; the groups of causes of death, classification of death, the moment of death, the proportional variation before and after surveillance, and the relocation of the causes after this process were described. Results: 4.327 (97.0%) of deaths of WCA were investigated (increase of 40.7% of maternal deaths) and MMR of 62.9/100 thousand live births. Improved notifications of immediate/late (75.0%) and remote (300.0%) postpartum; there was a difference in direct obstetric causes, total maternal deaths and late maternal death (p&lt;0.001). Conclusion: the surveillance and the Maternal Mortality Committee showed potential in identifying the magnitude and qualification of causes of maternal death in order to propose the interventions directed to obstetric care.

Spatial, temporal and demographic patterns in asthma mortality in China: A systematic analysis from 2014 to 2020

BackgroundAsthma is an important contributor to the burden of non-communicable diseases in China. Understanding spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in asthma mortality is relevant to the design and implementation of targeted interventions. MethodsThis study collected information on asthma deaths occurring across 605 disease surveillance points (DSPs) as recorded in the population-based national mortality surveillance system (NMSS) of China. Asthma was defined according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision code J45-J46. Estimates of age-standardized mortality rates and total national asthma deaths were calculated based on yearly population data. Statistical analysis was performed to investigate the influence of various factors on asthma mortality. ResultsBetween 2014 and 2020, a total of 40 116 asthma deaths occurred in DSPs. Standardized asthma mortality per 100 000 people decreased from 1.79 (95% CI: 1.74–1.83) in 2014 to 1.07 (95% CI: 1.03–1.10) in 2020 in China. In 2020, the overall asthma mortality rate was higher for male patients than for female patients, and asthma mortality rates increased substantially with age. Age-standardized asthma mortality per 100,000 people exhibited significant geographic variation, ranging from 0.93 (95% CI: 0.89–0.98) in Eastern China to 1.04 (95% CI: 0.98–1.10) in Central China and 1.37 (95% CI: 1.29–1.45) in Western China in 2020. Asthma mortality in urban areas appeared to be higher than in rural areas. Socioeconomic factors, including gross domestic product per capita and density of hospital beds per 10,000 population, may be related to asthma mortality. Male asthma patients who lived in rural areas and were aged 65 years and above were generally at high risk of asthma-related mortality. ConclusionsThis study found a spatial and temporal trend for a reduction in asthma deaths over seven years in China; however, there remain important sociodemographic groups that have not secured the same decrease in mortality rates. Trial registrationThis was a purely observational study and thus registration was not required.

Pulmonary Heart Disease Associated Mortality - China, 2014-2021.

Over the latter half of the previous century, pulmonary heart disease (PHD) emerged as a significant public health issue in China. However, the current mortality rate is unknown. Utilizing the Multiple Cause of Death database, the present study aims to investigate the current state and progression of PHD-associated death in China. Data from the China National Mortality Surveillance System were used to analyze progression in mortality rates attributable to PHD from 2014 to 2021. To standardize population structure for each year during the investigation period, demographic information from the 2020 census was employed as the reference population. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were determined based on sex, urban-rural area, and region. To identify trends in ASMR, a joinpoint regression analysis was executed. The ASMR of PHD exhibited a marked decrease, falling from 61.68 per 100,000 in 2014 to 28.53 per 100,000 in 2021. This downward trend was observable in both genders, all regions, and both urban and rural settings. The greatest ASMR values were documented in the western region. Comparative observations revealed a higher ASMR in rural areas versus urban ones and in males versus females. PHD-associated deaths predominantly occurred among older individuals, particularly those aged 80 and above. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) emerged as the principal underlying cause of death PHD-associated mortalities, accounting for between 87.41% and 93.42% of cases throughout the period 2014-2021. There was a declining trend in PHD mortality in China from 2014 to 2021, with COPD accounting for a significant proportion of these deaths. Given the high prevalence of COPD and the escalating population aging in China, PHD remains a significant health concern that warrants further attention.

Unintentional Drowning Mortality Among Individuals Under Age 20 - China, 2013-2021.

This study seeks to elucidate the evolving trend and identify disparities among subgroups in the mortality rate due to unintentional drowning in individuals under the age of 20 from the timeframe of 2013 to 2021 in China. Data retrieved from the National Mortality Surveillance System served as a foundation for estimating the unintentional drowning mortality rate. The inadvertent drowning mortality rate for individuals below the age of 20 was computed, differentiated by categorization groups such as age, gender, areas, and regions within each given year. The linear regression model was employed to calculate the annual percent of change (APC) with its 95% confidence interval (CI), providing a depiction of the mortality rate's shifting trend. In 2021, the inadvertent drowning fatality rate for individuals under 20 years of age in China was recorded at 3.28 per 100,000. A steady reduction was observed in the national drowning mortality rate from 6.60 per 100,000 in 2013 down to 3.28 per 100,000 in 2021, signifying a cumulative decrease of 50.30% [APC=-9.06% (95% CI: -11.31%, -6.76%)]. Across all sexes, regions, age groups, and residential areas, a consistent decline in mortality rates was evident between 2013 and 2021. An analysis of the data from 2013 to 2021 reveals a declining trend in the mortality rate due to unintentional drowning among individuals under 20 years of age in China. However, the rate of decline varied when stratified by sex, urban versus rural locations, age-specific groups, and geographical regions.

Spotlight on… maternal medicine

Spotlight on… maternal medicine

Usefulness of the Hospital Information System for maternal mortality surveillance in Brazil.

To evaluate the capability of hospital records in the Hospital Information System (SIH) to add valuable and complementary information to the Mortality Information System (SIM) in studies on maternal mortality. We calculated and compared the maternal mortality ratio from the SIH and SIM databases, by age group and region, to highlight differences between groups and assess the coverage of maternal deaths using SIH compared with SIM. Obstetric hospitalizations were defined based on three sources (codes ICD-10 in diagnoses; procedures; billing information). Hospital and SIM mortality ratios were calculated by dividing maternal deaths in hospitals affiliated to the Unified Brazilian Health System (SUS) per live births (SINASC) in the same hospitals. In 2019, we identified 2,497,957 obstetric admissions, 0.04% (946) with in-hospital mortality as outcome. The presence of three criteria identified 98% of obstetric hospitalizations and 83% of obstetric hospitalizations with death as outcome. The comparison of mortality ratios between SIH (45.5 MMR; 95%CI 42.7 - 48.5) and SIM (49.7 MMR; 95%CI 46.7 - 52.8) was not statistically significant (p-value: 0.053). The analysis of SIH was able to provide additional information for the monitoring and surveillance of maternal health in Brazil. Although there are differences between the mortality rates, the SIH, as a complementary information system to the SIM, may be valid in studies on maternal mortality and morbidity.

Antimicrobial resistance and mortality following E. coli bacteremia

Global estimates suggest millions of deaths annually are associated with antimicrobial resistance (AMR) but these are generated from scarce data on the relative risk of death attributable to drug-resistant versus drug-sensitive infections. We examined all episodes of E.coli bloodstream infection in Ontario, Canada between 2017 and 2020, and measured 90 day mortality among those with resistant versus sensitive isolates for each of 8 commonly used antibiotic classes and a category of difficult to treat resistance (DTTR). We used multivariable logistic regression to calculate an adjusted odds of mortality associated with AMR, after accounting for patient demographics, comorbidities, and prior healthcare exposure. Among 14,548 eligible episodes of E.coli bloodstream infection, resistance was most common to aminopenicillins (46.8%), followed by first generation cephalosporins (38.8%), fluoroquinolones (26.5%), sulfonamides (24.1%), third generation cephalosporins (13.8%), aminoglycosides (11.7%), beta-lactam-beta-lactamase-inhibitors (9.1%) and carbapenems (0.2%). Only 18 (0.1%) episodes exhibited DTTR. For each antibiotic class, the unadjusted odds of mortality (OR) were higher among resistant isolates, but after accounting for patient characteristics the adjusted odds (aOR) of mortality were attenuated: aminopenicillins (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.12-1.33; aOR 1.09, 95% CI 0.99-1.20), first generation cephalosporins (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.14-1.35; aOR 1.07, 95% CI 0.97-1.18), third generation cephalosporins (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.47-1.82; aOR 1.29, 95% CI 1.15-1.46), beta-lactam-beta-lactamase-inhibitors (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.52-1.89, aOR 1.28, 95% CI 1.13-1.45), carbapenems (OR 3.11, 95% CI 1.52-6.34; aOR 2.06, 95% CI 0.91-4.66), sulfonamides (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.07-1.31, aOR 1.06, 95% CI 0.95-1.18), fluoroquinolones (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.36-1.64, aOR 1.16, 95% CI 1.05-1.29), aminoglycosides (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.27-1.62; aOR 1.27, 95% CI 1.11-1.46), and DTTR (OR 3.71, 95% CI 1.46-9.41; aOR 2.58, 95% CI 0.87-7.66). AMR is associated with substantial increased mortality among patients with E.coli bloodstream infection, particularly for resistance to classes commonly used as empiric treatment. Surveillance for AMR-associated mortality should incorporate adjustment for patient characteristics and prior healthcare utilization. This work was supported by a project grant from CIHR (grant number 159503). This study was also supported by ICES, which is funded by an annual grant from Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care (MOHLTC).

The Forms, Challenges and Strength of the Monkeypox Surveillance System in Nigeria

Monkeypox is now a disease of global public health concern, making it cut across boundaries into different countries, continents and spread worldwide. However, it originated in the Democratic Republic of Congo as a human pathogen in 1970, with the first case reported in Nigeria in 1971. The World Health Organization recently declared Nigeria the country with the highest burden of monkeypox-confirmed cases and deaths in Africa for the current outbreak. This study aimed to identify forms, challenges, strengths, and ways to further strengthen the surveillance system of monkeypox in Nigeria. We conducted a rapid narrative review of articles published in English on monkeypox between January 2018 and October 2022. Google Scholar and PubMed were searched with the following terms: "Monkeypox", "Surveillance system", "Strengthening", "Challenges" "Nigeria" and relevant publications were reviewed. The forms of surveillance systems in Nigeria include Indicator-based and Event-based surveillance, contact tracing, laboratory-based surveillance, sero-surveillance, and mortality surveillance. Shortage of highly skilled staff in public health interventions, insufficient testing capacities, power instability, poor healthcare systems and stigmatization from communities with misinformation, and co-epidemic surveillance burden in Nigeria are some of the challenges contributing to weak surveillance in the country. The Nigerian governments must focus on investing in surveillance systems and bolster preparedness to stem the rapid spread of infectious diseases. Strengthening the surveillance system in the country as a response intervention for monkeypox is no longer a matter of option in Nigeria but of necessity to prevent the forecasted effect the incidence portends.

Leading causes of deaths in the mortality transition in Papua New Guinea: evidence from the Comprehensive Health and Epidemiological Surveillance System.

Changing causes of deaths in the mortality transition in Papua New Guinea (PNG) are poorly understood. This study analysed community-level data to identify leading causes of death in the population and variations across age groups and sexes, urban-rural sectors and provinces. Mortality surveillance data were collected from 2018-20 as part of the Comprehensive Health and Epidemiological Surveillance System (CHESS), using the World Health Organization 2016 verbal autopsy (VA) instrument. Data from 926 VA interviews were analysed, using the InterVA-5 cause of death analytical tool to assign specific causes of death among children (0-14 years), those of working age (15-64 years) and the elderly (65+ years). Nearly 50% of the total deaths were attributed to non-communicable diseases (NCDs), followed by infectious and parasitic diseases (35%), injuries and external causes (11%) and maternal and neonatal deaths (4%). Leading causes of death among children were acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs) and diarrhoeal diseases, each contributing to 13% of total deaths. Among the working population, tuberculosis (TB) contributed to 12% of total deaths, followed by HIV/AIDS (11%). TB- and HIV/AIDS-attributed deaths were highest in the age group 25-34 years, at 20% and 18%, respectively. These diseases killed more females of working age (n = 79, 15%) than males (n = 52, 8%). Among the elderly, the leading causes of death were ARTIs (13%) followed by digestive neoplasms (10%) and acute cardiac diseases (9%). The variations in leading causes of death across the populations in PNG suggest diversity in mortality transition. This requires different strategies to address specific causes of death in particular populations.