This study examines the dynamic relationships among oil prices, monetary conditions, and nominal GDP growth in Saudi Arabia, with particular attention to short-run adjustment and long-run equilibrium patterns in an oil-dependent economy operating under a fixed exchange-rate regime. Rather than identifying structural monetary policy shocks, the study focuses on reduced-form dynamic associations between market-based monetary indicators, oil-price movements, and nominal economic activity. Using a high-frequency monthly dataset covering key macroeconomic variables, the analysis employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework to estimate both short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships. An Error Correction Model (ECM) is used to capture the speed of adjustment toward equilibrium, while Granger causality tests assess short-term predictive linkages. The empirical results reveal that monetary indicators, particularly interest rates and money supply, exhibit lagged and non-monotonic associations with nominal GDP growth, reflecting delayed transmission under exchange-rate constraints. Oil-price movements emerge as a dominant driver, showing strong contemporaneous and lagged associations with growth, whereas inflation and exchange-rate movements display limited short-run predictive relevance. The ECM results indicate relatively rapid convergence toward long-run equilibrium, suggesting efficient adjustment dynamics. Granger causality findings further confirm the short-term predictive content of key macroeconomic variables. By integrating high-frequency data with ARDL–ECM estimation, VAR-based robustness checks, and sensitivity analysis, the study provides evidence on how oil-price movements, liquidity conditions, and interest-rate dynamics jointly shape growth fluctuations in Saudi Arabia.

Introduction: Fluctuations in the USD/IDR exchange rate significantly impact Indonesia’s macroeconomic stability. This study examines the short-term causal links between key macroeconomic variables and the USD/IDR exchange rate to identify the fundamental drivers of currency volatility. Methods: Using a quantitative approach, this research analyzes monthly time-series data from January 2014 to December 2024. Variables include interest rates, inflation, money supply, exports, imports, and global stock indices. The analytical framework employs stationarity testing, optimal lag selection, and Granger causality analysis within a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Results: The findings reveal that imports are the only variable exerting a statistically significant short-run causal influence on the exchange rate. Increased imports elevate foreign currency demand, leading to Rupiah depreciation. Other factors, such as interest rates, inflation, money supply, exports, and global stocks, show no substantial predictive causation, suggesting their impacts are primarily reactive or structural. Conclusion and suggestion: USD/IDR movements are predominantly driven by real-sector trade pressures, specifically import reliance. To strengthen the Rupiah, policies should prioritize managing import growth and boosting domestic productive capacity, with monetary strategies serving a supplementary role in maintaining stability.

This study aims to analyze the dynamics of interdependence between sharia assets, namely the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI) and sukuk, with Indonesian macroeconomic variables using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) approach. The macroeconomic variables analyzed include the BI exchange rate, BI Rate, inflation, export value, money supply (M2), gold price, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price, and the Industrial Production Index (IPI). The data used is a monthly time series for the period July 2011–December 2024 with a sample of 160 observations. The results of the stability test indicate that the VAR(1) model used is stable and suitable for further analysis. The Granger causality test indicates that most variables do not have a significant causal relationship, except for the exchange rate (KURS) which is proven to affect almost all other variables. The Impulse Response Function (IRF) test shows that most shocks to the ISSI, inflation, M2, gold, and WTI variables do not generate significant responses to other variables, while sukuk shows a positive response to shocks from the BI Rate, KURS, and IPI in the short term These findings emphasize the importance of strengthening Islamic financial instruments and exchange rate stability in supporting the integration of Islamic financial markets with the national macroeconomic system.

This study examined the long- and short-term relationships between remittance, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation and interest rates in Nepal. This study used time-series data from 2003 to 2024 from the world bank and Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB). The study applied econometric techniques including the Phillips-Perron unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyse the dynamics among the variables. The Johansen cointegration test indicated three long-run cointegration relationships among the variables. The VECM shows that the GDP, inflation and interest rates in the long run adjust significantly to restore equilibrium when deviations occur. This might suggest a contractionary process of the economy where policies aimed at controlling inflation or excess money supply might restrain the GDP. Meanwhile, remittances tend to increase in response to economic downturns, acting as a buffer for the economy. Short-run analysis showed that past values of GDP, inflation and interest rates strongly influence their current behaviour. This might suggest structural rigidity or gradual policy transmission. Meanwhile, remittance inflow reacts positively to interest rate and negatively to inflation. This means maintaining a stable interest rate and low inflation can ensure sustained remittance flow. The study concludes that maintaining stable interest rates and low inflation ensures sustainable remittance inflows and overall macroeconomic stability in Nepal. It is recommended that policymakers channel remittance into productive sectors to enhance economic growth while minimising inflationary pressures.

This paper uses time-series data from 1996Q1-2021Q4 to examine the determinants of non-performing loans (NPL) in Namibia’s banking industry and test for causality between NPL and its determinants. To accomplish this, the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) and the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) pairwise Granger causality modelling approaches are employed. The findings reveal that in Namibia, NPL is influenced by a host of factors, including its own past values, output gap, unemployment rate, housing prices, return on assets, return on equity, lending behaviour, loan-to-deposit ratio, loan growth, narrow money supply, broad money supply, net foreign assets, repo rate, interest spread, deposit rates, private sector credit extension, oil prices, COVID-19 pandemic crisis, stock market prices, regulatory quality, government effectiveness, and the rule of law. The Granger causality test results indicate strong unidirectional causality running from past values of NPL, unemployment, housing prices, capital adequacy ratio, loan growth, and oil prices to NPL. Additionally, a bidirectional causal relationship exists between the repo rate, lending rate, and NPL. The policy implications emanating from this study need to be addressed in order to ensure the stability of the country’s financial system.

In the first part of the last century, some Italian economists, like Einaudi and Bresciani-Turroni, explained post-WWI inflation and hyperinflation using the quantity theory. As Friedman, they trace inflation to excessive money supply to cover public deficits. However, their explanation of the origins and effects of inflation differs in some key respects from that of Friedman. While Friedman refers to aggregate variables, the Italian quantity theorists, as Condorcet, acknowledge that, during inflation, goods and services prices rise at different rates. Inflation, therefore, has redistributive effects both with respect to wealth and income. Friedman and the Italian quantity theorists reach also different conclusions on the distorting effects of inflation: For Friedman these distortions end with the adjustment of expectations, for the latter inflation distorts the structure of the economy and these distortions can only be reabsorbed in the medium-long run. Nothwithstanding these differences, both Friedman and the Italian quantity theorists share the idea that prerequisite for disinflation is reabsorption of government budget imbalances and that it is necessary to prevent disinflation from degenerating into deflation.

This study explores the relationship between inequality and macroeconomic dynamics in Türkiye from 2004 to 2023, with a particular focus on the role of monetary policy. While the analysis incorporates a range of macroeconomic indicators—including per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), consumer price index (CPI), exchange rate (USD), stock market index (BIST100), and income and consumption Gini coefficients—special attention is given to the growth of the money supply (M1) as a proxy for monetary policy stance. Using Vector Autoregression (VAR) models, we examine how changes in these variables affect income and consumption inequality over time. The results indicate that among the variables studied, M1 has a statistically significant and consistent effect on inequality measures, particularly after 2019, when monetary expansion accelerated. The findings suggest that monetary policy, through its influence on inflation, asset prices, and exchange rates, has notable distributional consequences. While other macroeconomic factors also contribute, the evidence highlights that money supply growth—when not matched by real sector gains—can exacerbate inequality. These results underscore the need to integrate distributional considerations into the design and implementation of monetary policy.

Despite the rapid financial expansion over the past two decades, South Africa’s economic growth has remained sluggish, raising concerns about the disconnect between financial sector development and overall economic performance. This study aims to investigate the relationship between financialization and economic growth in South Africa using three proxy variables, finance, insurance, real estate, and business services as a percentage of GDP; money supply (M3) as a percentage of GDP; and credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP, alongside a composite financialization indicator. Using quarterly time-series data from 1994Q1 to 2025Q2, this study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to examine both short- and long-term dynamics and cointegration between financialization and economic growth. The empirical findings reveal that financialization exerts a positive and statistically significant influence on South Africa’s economic growth. Meanwhile, the estimation results reveal that financialization has a positive and highly significant impact on economic growth in South Africa, demonstrating the need for policies that promote and enhance its effects.

This study investigates the determinants of the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar over the 2010–2024 period, focusing on inflation, money supply, foreign exchange reserves, trade balance, global oil prices, global gold prices, and a COVID-19 dummy variable. The analysis employs a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), complemented by the Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). The short-run results indicate that domestic macroeconomic variables, global commodity prices, and the COVID-19 dummy do not have a statistically significant effect on the exchange rate, suggesting that short-term movements are driven primarily by market adjustment and policy stabilization mechanisms. However, the error correction term is negative and statistically significant, and the lagged exchange rate is also significant, indicating that deviations from long-run equilibrium are gradually corrected over time. In the long run, inflation and money supply exert a negative effect on the exchange rate, whereas the trade balance and global oil prices have a positive effect. By contrast, foreign exchange reserves and global gold prices are not statistically significant, implying that these variables play a stabilizing rather than a determining role in exchange rate movements. The IRF results show that the exchange rate responds gradually and converges following macroeconomic shocks, while the FEVD results indicate that long-run exchange rate fluctuations are influenced mainly by trade balance and oil price shocks, although their relative contributions remain limited.

ABSTRACT This study examines the response of the real effective exchange rate (REER) to monetary and output shocks in Pakistan using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022 and employs the vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The impulse response shows that positive shocks appreciate the home currency, while negative shocks depreciate it, except for the money supply, where positive shocks depreciate it. Variance decomposition emphasizes that monetary policy variables, specifically the supply of money and interest rates, are the key contributors to exchange rates. VECM findings show that the money supply and inflation depreciate the currency, interest rates appreciate it, and output is negatively linked to REER due to high imports. The results of the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model support the robustness of the empirical findings. This study suggests that sound monetary policy and other tools are essential for economic stability.

Understanding the dynamic relationships among major macroeconomic variables is essential for evaluating economic stability and informing policy design in developing economies such as Nigeria. This study aimed to investigate the interrelationships among Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, broad money supply (M2), interest rate, exchange rate, and unemployment in Nigeria over the period 2001–2023. Annual data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, and CEIC databases and analyzed using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) implemented in Python’s statsmodels framework to capture both short-run adjustments and long-run equilibrium dynamics. The findings reveal the presence of three stable long-run cointegrating relationships among the variables. Inflation was found to respond strongly to changes in GDP, interest rates, and exchange-rate movements, whereas the effects of money supply and unemployment were relatively weaker. The results further indicate that economic growth contributes to modest reductions in unemployment, while persistent inflationary pressures and volatile interest rates tend to worsen labor-market outcomes. Exchange-rate depreciation also emerged as a major source of macroeconomic instability. Diagnostic tests suggest that the estimated model is broadly robust, although mild indications of serial correlation and multicollinearity remain. The study concludes that Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment is shaped by deep structural weaknesses that require stronger policy coordination, improved exchange-rate management, and sustained structural reforms to enhance price stability and employment outcomes. These findings contribute empirical evidence on long-run and short-run macroeconomic interactions in Nigeria and provide policy-relevant insights for strengthening economic management.

This study examines the effect of monetary policy on poverty reduction in Nigeria from 1990 to 2023. Despite sustained efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria to implement macroeconomic policies to stabilise the economy, poverty levels remain persistently high, raising questions about the effectiveness of monetary policy interventions. The study specifically investigates the influence of key monetary policy variables- monetary policy rate, money supply, and inflation- on poverty reduction. An ex post facto research design was adopted, utilising secondary data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria, National Bureau of Statistics, and World Bank databases. Econometric analysis, including unit root tests, cointegration tests, ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, and error correction modelling (ECM), was employed to examine both short-run and long-run relationships, while diagnostic tests were conducted to validate the model. The findings indicate that money supply has a significant negative effect on poverty, suggesting that expansionary monetary policy promotes poverty alleviation; conversely, inflation and high interest rates were found to increase poverty, highlighting the negative impact of macroeconomic instability on household welfare. Ultimately, the study concludes that monetary policy significantly influences poverty reduction in Nigeria but requires coordination with fiscal measures, structural reforms, and enhanced financial inclusion for maximum effectiveness. Consequently, the study recommends policy adjustments that prioritise price stability, lower interest rates, and greater access to financial services to strengthen the poverty-reducing impact of monetary interventions.

The research aims to analyze the influence of macroeconomic factors and the price of Bitcoin on the growth of stock market value in Viet Nam. The VN-Index is used to represent the growth of Vietnam's stock market value because the capitalization of the HOSE exchange accounted for over 93.3% of the total market capitalization at the end of 2023. The primary macroeconomic variables examined include Industrial Production Growth, Export Turnover Growth, Inflation, Money Supply Growth, and Foreign Direct Investment. Utilizing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model on a time-series dataset from 2011 to 2023, the estimation results indicated that the Bitcoin price, Export Turnover Growth, Money Supply, and FDI all exert a positive influence on the VN-Index in both the short and long run. Conversely, Industrial Production Growth shows a negative impact across both time horizons. Inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index, positively affects the market in the short run but proves to be statistically insignificant in the long run. Based on these findings, the research proposed several policy implications, such as completing the legal framework for cryptocurrencies, enhancing market transparency to reduce speculation, promoting exports, adhering to targeted inflation control, implementing flexible money supply management, and improving procedures to better attract FDI.

In this research, we disentangled the effects of macroeconomic policies in Morocco under the assumption of monetary dominance. To conduct the empirical analysis, we identified a SVAR framework in which fiscal authorities are constrained by the monetary conditions stemming from central bank’s inflation-targeting policy. In light of our findings, output responds positively to expansionary fiscal policies, which tend to exert upward pressure on prices. Furthermore, the central bank seems unable to impose full monetary dominance and fails to alleviate inflationary pressures through interest rate hikes, which calls into question the effectiveness of inflation-targeting policies in Morocco. Such policies appear to constrain the growth prospects without delivering the expected effects on prices. These results highlight the need for closer coordination of monetary and fiscal authorities’ actions, backing interest rate-based monetary policy with effective money supply management and avoiding any fiscal measures that support economic growth at the expense of price stability.

The money market plays a vital role in the global financial architecture as a provider of short-term liquidity and a primary channel for monetary policy transmission. This research is motivated by the rapid transformation of financial instruments, which now encompass conventional and Sharia-compliant sectors, as well as digital innovations such as e-money and stablecoins. The purpose of this study is to examine the concept of the money market, identify the diversity of modern instruments, and analyze their strategic role in economic stability through a qualitative literature review approach. The analysis shows that the money market is highly effective in managing bank cash reserves and controlling inflation by regulating the money supply. The presence of digital instruments has been proven to accelerate liquidity flows, while Sharia schemes provide transparent and equitable investment alternatives. However, the emergence of digital assets also brings challenges of volatility that require adaptive regulation and professional skepticism from market participants. The implications of this research emphasize the importance of synergy between monetary authorities and financial technology to address global disruption. Strengthening regulations on future instruments is expected to create a more inclusive and stable financial system that can respond precisely to economic shocks.

The inflation rate has shown an upward trend globally, specifically after COVID-19, and the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are not an exception. A heightened inflation in the modern globalized world is indeed undesirable due to its enormous adverse consequences on all sectors of the economy. However, the true determinants of the inflation rate, particularly in the case of GCC economies, are not well-explored. Accordingly, this research paper attempts to see whether the inflation rate in GCC economies is driven by internal factors or global factors. This paper focuses on data for the period 1998 to 2023 and applies the PMG-ARDL methodology for the estimation. The results confirmed that money supply, oil prices, GDP, and global supply chain pressure are the key inflationary drivers in the long run. In contrast, trade openness has reduced the inflation rate in the long run, which is consistent with the prediction of Romer’s hypothesis. In the short run, we found that real GDP and trade openness are the main driving forces behind the heightened inflation rate. Furthermore, the causality findings indicated several unidirectional and bidirectional relationships among the variables under consideration. Our results are robust to alternative econometric estimators and hence offer valuable policy implications for the consideration of policymakers.

Previous studies have reported a positive association between socioeconomic status (SES) and HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This contradicts widespread understandings of how health disparities are created and sustained through socioeconomic disparity. The nature of high HIV prevalence in SSA among wealthier individuals, especially those aged 15–24 who experience wealth and HIV risk differently than other age groups, is less understood. Qualitative investigation can provide contextual “how” and “why” factors into the relationship between wealth and HIV in this population, aiding intervention and policy efforts. We used data from the Adolescent Sexual Health and Economic Study, which comprised of in-depth interviews with 25 adolescents and young adults (AYA) aged 15–24 years residing in Kisumu County, Kenya. AYA were asked to explain their understanding of high and low social standing and describe the social standing of their peers, a measure encompassing socioeconomic status, social image, access to resources, and material possessions. AYA then described their peers’ sexual relationships and what they believed to be the relationship between social standing and sexual behaviors. Data was analyzed using thematic analysis. Transactional sexual relationships were a common experience for all AYA in the study. Notably, wealthy young men and women described engaging in transactional relationships more frequently than their less wealthy counterparts. While wealthy young men engaged in transactional sex to boost or maintain social status, wealthy young women sought money out of their transactional relationships to buy luxury items they could not afford with their current supply of money and lack of financial independence. Although less wealthy women also experienced transactional sex, they often did so to obtain money for food and shelter. Participants reported a high awareness of HIV in the community but few of their peers utilized HIV-preventative measures beyond condoms. Research efforts and interventions cannot overlook groups who traditionally have not been the focus of HIV prevention and management, such as wealthy young men and women. The HIV epidemic in SSA is complex among AYA and cuts across gender and socioeconomic classes.

There is no consensus among economists on the relationship between monetary policy and unemployment. The objective of this study is to determine the nature and extent to which monetary policy is related to unemployment in Nigeria from 1991 to 2022 using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach. The data of the growth rate of gross fixed capital formation and monetary policy rate are obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin. The data of all the other variables are obtained from World Development Indicators. The monetarist view on the influence of monetary policy on unemployment is found in this study. The growth rates of money supply, banks’ credit and gross fixed capital formation had a significant negative relationship with unemployment and population growth rate had a significant positive relationship with unemployment in Nigeria in the short run. The monetary policy rate and exchange rate had no relationship with unemployment in Nigeria in both the short run and long run. The decrease in the growth rates of money supply, banks’ credit and gross fixed capital formation and an increase in population growth rate had led to an increase in unemployment in Nigeria.

The study aims to analyze the factors affecting the probability of bad debt exceeding the threshold at listed joint-stock commercial banks in Vietnam during the period 2012–2024. The study examines the relationship between the probability of bad debt exceeding the threshold (Lyra et al., 2015) and independent variables such as credit growth rate, bank size, business efficiency, liquidity, and macroeconomic variables such as inflation rate, economic growth, and money supply by using a binary logit model. The results show that rapid credit growth, low business efficiency, and poor liquidity are factors that significantly increase the probability of bad debt exceeding the threshold. On the contrary, large size and high profitability have an impact on reducing this probability. The study provides important empirical evidence for bank managers in controlling credit risks and contributing to ensuring the safety of the banking and financial system in Vietnam (Chang et al., 2025). The study contributes to the application of the logit model to predict the possibility of bad debt exceeding the threshold, while clearly identifying key factors to enable banks to enhance early warning and control credit risks more effectively.

This study aims to analyze the influence of the Bitcoin economy on the money supply (M1) in Indonesia, with Bitcoin volatility as an intervening variable. Using a quantitative approach, the data consists of 36 monthly time-series observations from 2022 to 2024. Data analysis techniques include regression analysis adjusted with the Prais-Winsten method to address autocorrelation issues, the Sobel test for mediation analysis, and path analysis. The results indicate that the Bitcoin economy has a direct, positive, and significant effect on the money supply (M1) in Indonesia. However, the Bitcoin economy was found to have a negative and non-significant effect on Bitcoin volatility. Similarly, Bitcoin volatility exerts a negative but non-significant influence on the money supply (M1). The Sobel test results prove that Bitcoin volatility does not function as an intervening variable mediating the relationship between the Bitcoin economy and the money supply (M1). These findings suggest that while the expansion of the Bitcoin ecosystem encourages an increase in domestic monetary liquidity, the price fluctuations of digital assets have not yet become a transmission channel that significantly disrupts the stability of national monetary aggregates.