Monetary Model Research Articles

Panel Analysis of Monetary Model of ASEAN-5 Exchange Rates

In this study, we examined whether the exchange rates in ASEAN-5 countries are driven by monetary fundamentals. We applied the panel unit root tests and found that the United States denominated nominal exchange rates of Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah, Philippines Peso, Singapore Dollar, and Thailand Baht are all integrated of order one. Meanwhile, relative money supply and relative real income are also integrated in the same order. Nonetheless, the relative interest rate is integrated in order zero, and it implies the uncovered interest rate parity held in ASEAN-5. By using a panel cointegration test pioneered by Pedroni (2000, 2004), we found evidence that there is a long-run relationship between nominal exchange rate and its monetary fundamentals. Consistent with the monetary model of the exchange rate, relative money supply is positively related to nominal exchange rates, while relative real income is negatively related to nominal exchange rates. Therefore, this study reveals the importance of relative real money supply and relative income for the exchange rate market players to predict and monitor ASEAN-5 exchange rates.

A NEW MONETARIST MODEL OF FIAT AND E‐MONEY

We develop a dual payment New Monetarist model, where an electronic money (e‐purse) competes with fiat money (cash). The two payment instruments differ in terms of security, cost, and acceptability. Strategic complementarities lead to multiple monetary equilibria. We establish the conditions under which e‐money can coexist with, or replace fiat money, and explain the reasons for the e‐purse failure/success in a few countries. We also compare welfare when one currency or both circulate. When the risk of theft of cash is endogenous, e‐money cannot replace cash entirely; however, low inflation can facilitate the adoption of e‐money in parallel with fiat money. (JEL D83, E40, E50)

Unequal Exchange in the Age of Globalization

Unequal exchange arises when spatial production of value is disjointed from its geographical distribution. A disaggregated monetary model of the world economy is presented on the grounds of Marx’s labor theory of value. All the forms of unequal exchange in international trade are explained, on the basis of a coherent definition of the forms of international value of traded commodities. Estimates of value transfers for recent years show the ongoing relevance of the unequal exchange in the modern capitalist world economy. JEL classifications: B51, D46, F63

Does the long-run monetary model hold for Sub-Saharan Africa? A time series and panel-cointegration study

In this paper, I test the long-run monetary model of exchange rates determination for a collection of 22 Sub-Saharan African countries. My approach is in two phases. First, I perform a country-by-country analysis. Results obtained fail to lend considerable support for the model in most countries analysed. Following this failure, I resort to the second phase and employ panel techniques to test the validity of the monetary model. Interestingly, and in sharp contrast with the country-by-country analysis, I find some convincing partial support for the model, which suggests that relative money supply and relative real output play significant roles in exchange rates determination in Sub-Saharan Africa. The results yield cointegrating coefficients with correct signs and significance as predicted by the theoretical model and are generally robust to an array of estimation techniques, but the estimated elasticity of relative money supply is mostly less than unity – which explains why the support is partial.

Monetary model of exchange rate determination under floating and non-floating regimes

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to empirically analyse how different exchange rate regimes affect the links between monetary fundamentals and exchange rates in Sub-Saharan Africa.Design/methodology/approachUsing the Pedroni method for panel cointegration, mean group and pooled mean group and the panel vector autoregressive technique, this study empirically investigates whether monetary fundamentals impact exchange rates similarly in both regimes. Thus, the author acquires needed and credible empirical data.FindingsThe result suggests that the impact is dissimilar. In the floating regime, an increase in relative money supply and relative real output depreciates and appreciates the nominal exchange rate in the long run whereas in the non-floating regime, the evidence is mixed. Thus, exchange rates bear a theoretically consistent relationship with monetary fundamentals across SSA countries with floating regimes but fails under non-floating regimes. This provides evidence that regime choice is important if the relationship between monetary fundamentals and exchange rates in SSA are to be theoretically consistent.Originality/valueThis study empirically incorporates the dissimilarities in exchange rate regimes in a panel framework and study the links between exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. The focus on how exchange rate regimes might alter the equilibrium relationships between exchange rates and monetary fundamentals in SSA is a pioneering experiment.

What causes business cycles to elongate, or recessions to intensify?

In this paper we use both New Keynesian and Classical monetary models to explain why volatility transfers from high to low frequency cycles occur, causing the business cycle to elongate, and how they could reverse. Our results show that an increase in inflation aversion or a reduction in the commitment to output stabilization would create volatility transfers sufficient to give rise to a great moderation, while a reversal of those commitments would take it away again. In short, the lower frequency cycles become more volatile at the expense of traditional business cycle frequencies, even though there are no reversals in the parameters that govern the economy’s underlying economic behaviour, dynamics or volatility. This implies we should expect less frequent but more severe recessions, with smoother business cycle expansion phases in between. We identify moderate expectations for output or earnings growth to be the key element that under-pins these results.

A Study on the Impact of China’s Monetary Policy on South Korea’s Exchange Rate

Purpose - The adjustment of one country's monetary policy can cause the macroeconomic change of other countries. Due to this, this paper attempts to analyze the impact of China’s monetary policy on South Korea’s exchange rate. Research design, data, and methodology - Based on the flexible-price monetary model, sets of annual time series from 1980 to 2017 are employed to perform an empirical estimation. The vector error correction model is also used to exploit the short-run relationship between both of them. Of course, the South Korea’s real GDP, the China’s real GDP, South Korea’s interest rate, the South Korea’s interest rate and the South Korea’s monetary supply are treated as independent variables in this paper. Result - The long-run findings reveal that the China’s money supply has a negative effect on South Korea’s exchange rate. Respectively, the short-run findings depicts that the China’s money supply has negative a effect on South Korea’s exchange rate. Of course, other variables selected in this paper also have an effect on South Korea’s exchange rate whatever positive or negative. Conclusions - As the empirical evidence shows, the China’s monetary policy has a negative effect on South Korea’s exchange rate whenever in the long run or in the short run.

Does Pak-Rupee Exchange Rate Respond to Monetary Fundamentals? A Structural Analysis

This study empirically examines the contribution of monetary fundamentals in explaining nominal exchange rate movements in the case of Pak-rupee vis-à-vis US-dollar over the period 1982Q2 to 2014Q2. The empirical results support the existence of cointegration relationship between nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals. The results reveal that relative money stocks and real income are the key drivers of exchange rate determination in Pakistan in the long-run. For dynamic interaction, the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) method is applied. Results from the SVAR show that the responses of exchange rate to shocks, originated from money supply, income, interest rate and inflation differentials, are consistent with the predictions of the flexible-price variant of the monetary model of exchange rate in the short-run. More specifically, the results indicate that inflation and interest rate differential explain maximum variations in exchange rate in the short-run. In essence, results suggest that monetary fundamentals are the key drivers of exchange rate fluctuations in Pakistan, especially in the short-run. JEL Classification: F31, F33, C32, F41 Keywords: Monetary Model, Exchange Rate, SVAR, Pakistan

The Impact of Divisia Money on Monetary Model of Exchange Rate in Indonesia

The Impact of Divisia Money on Monetary Model of Exchange Rate in Indonesia

自适应多元货币模型与人民币汇率预测 (Adaptive Multiple Monetary Model With Application in Forecasting the RMB Exchange Rates)

Chinese Abstract: 在人民币国际化不断推进、人民币汇率双向波动加强的背景下，构建具有优良预测能力的人民币汇率预测模型愈发重要。参数模型对汇率预测的能力不仅取决于模型设定是否正确，同时还取决于能否迅速探测模型参数的结构性变化以使用最佳信息估计模型参数。本文构建了自适应多元货币模型，并对2011年1月以后的美元、欧元、英镑和日元兑人民币汇率月度数据进行样本外预测，发现在中长期(3至24个月)的人民币汇率预测中，自适应多元货币模型能显著优于随机游走模型、购买力平价模型、弹性货币模型、利率平价模型、泰勒规则模型与偏移型泰勒规则模型这六种汇率预测主流模型。该模型能准确捕捉模型参数的时变特征，探测汇率动态的结构性变化以实时检测参数同质区间，并寻找最佳参数估计以提高人民币汇率预测精度。 English Abstract: To develop an outstanding Renminbi exchange rates forecasting model based on the background of Renminbi internationalization and the increased two-way volatility becomes much more important. By developing an adaptive multivariable monetary model, we do the out-of-sample forecasting for the Renminbi exchange rates after 01/2011 and compare the forecasting accuracy with the other 6 different widely used competitive models. We find that the forecasting ability of a parameter model depends not only on whether it is correctly specified but also on the efficiency of whether it can detect the structure changes and using the effective observations to estimate the parameters. Our developed model can manage of capturing the parameters’ time-varying properties and significantly outperform the Random Walk, Purchasing Power Parity model, Flexible Price Monetary Model, Interest Rate Parity Model, Taylor Rule Model, and the Taylor Rule Differential Model in the middle and the long run (3- to 24- months ahead). In this paper, we have developed an adaptive multiple monetary regression model which can not only detect the structure changes automatically at every time point but can also detect the parameter homogenous subintervals and identify the longest homogeneous subintervals which are used as the best subinterval to estimate the parameters.

Short-term exchange rate predictability

In this paper, we revisit the monetary model in growth rates in explaining exchange rates. Different with the literature, we consider the cross-sectional dependence when using the panel data to predict exchange rates. By using quarterly and monthly data in 30 countries, we find that the monetary model in growth rates can outperform random walk with and without drift in the prediction.

Trust in the monetary authority

Trust in policy makers fluctuates significantly over the cycle, evaporating during crises and affecting the transmission mechanism. Despite this, it is absent from the literature. We build a monetary model where trust emerges endogenously as an equilibrium of a strategic interaction (moral hazard with uncertainty on policy actions) between betrayal-averse agents and policy makers with stochastic incentives to deviate, conditioned on past policy outcomes as signals. A fall in trust, due to shocks or policy actions, increases the price that agents attach to future contingencies, amplifies fluctuations, and steepens the sacrifice ratio. We test the transmission of shocks through VAR analyses where trust is proxied by answers to the Eurobarometer surveys.

On Money as a Medium of Exchange in Near-Cashless Credit Economies

We study the transmission of monetary policy in credit economies where money serves as a medium of exchange. We find that-in contrast to current conventional wisdom in policy-oriented research in monetary economics-the role of money in transactions can be a powerful conduit to asset prices and ultimately, aggregate consumption, investment, output, and welfare. Theoretically, we show that the cashless limit of the monetary equilibrium (as the cash-and-credit economy converges to a pure-credit economy) need not correspond to the equilibrium of the nonmonetary pure-credit economy. Quantitatively, we find that the magnitudes of the responses of prices and allocations to monetary policy in the monetary economy are sizeable-even in the cashless limit. Hence, as tools to assess the effects of monetary policy, monetary models without money are generically poor approximations- even to idealized highly developed credit economies that are able to accommodate a large volume of transactions with arbitrarily small aggregate real money balances.

Nonlinear policy behavior, multiple equilibria and debt-deflation attractors

This paper analyzes global dynamics in a macroeconomic model where both monetary and fiscal policies are nonlinear, consistent with empirical evidence. Nonlinear monetary policy, in which the nominal interest rate features an increasing marginal reaction to inflation, interacting with nonlinear fiscal policy, in which the primary budget surplus features an increasing marginal reaction to debt, gives rise to four steady-state equilibria. Each steady state exhibits in its neighborhood a pair of ‘active’/‘passive’ monetary/fiscal policies à la Leeper-Woodford, and is typically investigated in isolation within linearized monetary models. We show that, when global nonlinear dynamics are taken into account, such steady states are endogenously connected. In particular, the global dynamics reveals the existence of infinite self-fulfilling paths that originate around the steady states locally displaying either monetary or fiscal ‘dominance’—and thus locally delivering equilibrium determinacy—as well as around the unstable steady state with active monetary-fiscal policies, and that converge into an unintended high-debt/low-inflation (possibly deflation) attractor. Such global trajectories—bounded by two heteroclinic orbits connecting the three out-of-the-trap steady states—are, however, obscured if the four monetary-fiscal policy mixes are studied locally and disjointly.

Keynesian economics without the Phillips curve

We extend Farmer’s 2012b Monetary (FM) model in three ways. First, we derive an analog of the Taylor Principle and we show that it fails in U.S. data. Second, we use the fact that the model displays dynamic indeterminacy to explain the real effects of nominal shocks. Third, we use the fact the model displays steady-state indeterminacy to explain the persistence of unemployment. We show that the FM model outperforms the New-Keynesian model and we argue that its superior performance arises from the fact that the reduced form of the FM model is a VECM as opposed to a VAR.This article is part of a Special Issue entitled Fiscal and Monetary Policies.

Monetary Policy and the Interest Rate: Reflections on Allan Meltzer's Contributions to Monetary Economics

The monetary framework developed by Karl Brunner and Allan Meltzer emphasized the interaction between the supply and demand for money and the supply and demand for credit. In a general equilibrium setting, the money market and the credit market jointly determine the short term interest rate and the price level of real assets. Open market operations change the composition of assets and, in turn, the price level of real assets and the interest rate. The effect of monetary policy on real activity depends on both the change in the interest rate and the change in the price level of real assets. The Brunner-Meltzer model therefore emphasizes the role of changes in relative prices of financial and real assets in response to changes in monetary policy. In recent years, the Federal Reserve has moved to a system that uses the interest rate on reserves as the primary tool of monetary policy. In doing so, the Federal Reserve has implicitly accepted the idea that monetary policy is entirely transmitted through the short term nominal interest rate. In this paper, I present Brunner and Meltzer's view of monetary transmission and their critique of monetary models that exclusively focus on the interest rate. In addition, I argue that the lack of evidence in support of the interest rate channel in conjunction with the change in the Federal Reserve's operating procedures presents an opportune time to revisit the Brunner-Meltzer critique.

Estimating shadow economy in Tanzania: an analysis with the MIMIC approach

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to estimate the Tanzanian shadow economy (SE) from 2003 to 2015 and test the statistical relationships between the SE and its potential causes and indicators.Design/methodology/approachThe econometric analysis is based on a multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) model. To calibrate the SE from the estimates, the authors adopt the value of 55.4 percentage of the SE to official GDP from the literature for the base year 2005.FindingsThe SE ranges from 52 to 61 per cent of official GDP and slightly decreases from 2013 to 2015. Increase in inflation, unemployment and government spending were the main drivers of the SE dynamics.Research limitations/implicationsGiven the challenges facing estimation of the SE (e.g. small sample size, exogenous estimate to calibrate the model, meaning of the latent variable), quantification of SE should be considered to be rough measures.Practical implicationsTo lower the size of the SE, the government needs to keep inflation and unemployment stable over time, to reduce government spending because it creates pressure on tax collection due to the limited tax base.Originality/valueThis is the first study specifically focused on Tanzanian SE based on the MIMIC approach. Existing estimates of Tanzanian SE are calculated by monetary models or apply a common MIMIC specification to the worldwide context.

The Conceptual Flaw in the Microeconomic Foundations of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models

ABSTRACTFirst-generation dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have been criticized for their lack of financial markets but, more perceptively, for their barter properties. This note explains why the second of these criticisms is fundamental. All DSGE models are built on frictionless, perfect barter, Walrasian microeconomic foundations. Introducing money and banks into such models converts them into a ‘friction’ contra the fundamental principle that monetary exchange is more efficient than barter. This insoluble difficulty with the microeconomic foundations of DSGE models arises because theorists ignore the Hahn problem that applies to all monetary models based on Walrasian general equilibrium (GE) microeconomic foundations. The Hahn problem reveals three things. First, a perfect barter GE solution always exists in any ‘monetary’ model erected on Walrasian GE microeconomic foundations. Second, inessential monetary features are easily attached to perfect barter microeconomic foundations but as easily removed, leaving the perfect barter solution intact. Third, attaching such inessential additions leads to logical error; the misuse of language that produces invalid conclusions. A second-generation DSGE model that is intended to increase understanding of financial crises is then examined to show that it suffers from the Hahn problem; it converts banking and financial markets into ‘frictions’, and words and economic concepts take on different meanings. That renders the new DSGE model impossible to interpret or use as a basis for advice on monetary policy.

Monetary Policy with Imperfect Signals: The Target Problem in a New Monetarist Approach

The target problem considers the central bank's use of optimal tools and targets for purposes of stabilization and welfare optimization. In this study, this question is answered anew in a microfounded approach. By adding imperfect information to the model of [Berentsen and Waller, 2011], a divide between an interest rate policy and a money stock policy emerges. Given this, the usefulness of each policy is analyzed, with the ultimate result being the dominance of a pro-cyclical interest rate-based policy. This finding stands in contrast to the well-known macrofounded answer of [Poole, 1970]. The inconsistency is resolved by an examination of some of the axioms underlying New Keynesian and New Monetarist models.

The INR/USD Exchange Rate Determination: An Empirical Investigation of the Flexible Price Monetary Model in a Vector Auto Regression Framework

The current study attempts to examine the importance of the Flexible Price Monetary (FPM) Model in explaining the INR/USD exchange rate movement with macro variables such as relative money stock, relative rates of interest and relative output for the period from April 1995 till December 2016. Prior to estimating the empirical model, an array of non-stationarity tests was employed to identify the time series characteristics of the data. Since all the data series were confirmed to be integrated of order one, the multivariate cointegration methodology was used to verify long-run validity of the model. The empirical results garner support for the FPM model in determining INR/USD exchange rate in the long run. The test on direction of causality confirmed existence of causality from FPM variables to exchange rate. The empirical model was estimated in the Vector Auto regression (VAR) framework and variance decomposition analysis was used to examine fluctuation in INR/USD exchange rate caused by the shocks in FPM model variables. It was found that, the monetary model variables explain the exchange rate patterns over a longer period of time but was found not very effective in the short run and hence cannot be considered as a useful framework in explaining the variations in INR/USD exchange rate.