Deep Convection Research Articles

Expansion of grasslands across glacial Sundaland caused by enhanced precipitation seasonality

The distribution of vegetation across glacial Sundaland and the underlying mechanisms have long been debated. We address this issue by comparing a compilation of vegetation reconstructions with climate simulations from the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). A new n-alkane δ13C record derived from higher plants, covering the period from 21 to 5 cal ka BP in the southern South China Sea, is presented. This record, combined with previous pollen-based reconstructions, indicates that C3 forests dominated the outer-to-mid shelf regions of the northern Sundaland between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Heinrich Stadial 1, while open grasslands occupied the inner shelf region. A compilation of vegetation reconstructions shows a glacial contraction of lowland rainforests in longitudinal extent compared to the Holocene, especially in southern Sundaland. Furthermore, the previously proposed “savannah corridor” or “dry tropical forests” existed in the interior of Sundaland during the LGM, extending from the Malay Peninsula to the Lesser Sunda Islands. Modelling studies suggest that changes in the seasonality of precipitation, rather than mean annual rainfall, are more relevant to vegetation changes between the LGM and the Holocene. The glacial emergence of Sundaland caused an eastward shift of the ascending branch of the Walker Circulation and a substantial reduction in atmospheric convection activity over Southeast Asia, leading to a decrease in water availability during the dry season in both hemispheres. The enhanced water stress thus favors the expansion of open environments.

Evaluating synthetic aperture radar surface winds for convective squalls in the Gulf of Mexico

AbstractThe detection and quantification of strong sea surface winds, reaching up to 25 m·s−1, whether associated with deep convection aloft or not, have been extensively discussed in previous studies. This method involves the combined observation of the same event from both low‐orbit altitude and geostationary (GEO) satellites. Strong surface winds observed by the Sentinel‐1 C‐band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) are robustly associated with deep convective clouds detected by GEO infrared sensors. The current paper aims to generalize the previous assessment of several convective wind events by collecting a larger dataset and comparing these data to in‐situ wind observations. To achieve this, we evaluated wind speeds retrieved from Sentinel‐1 SAR images against corresponding in‐situ wind measurements from all active buoys/stations in the Gulf of Mexico. Significant agreement between satellite‐based winds and in‐situ data was achieved, particularly for wind speeds exceeding 3 m·s−1, with even better agreement for wind speeds over 10 m·s−1. From this dataset, three specific convective cases were extracted to illustrate various stages of convective squall events: before, during, and after the occurrence of a squall peak. In each case, comparison with in‐situ measurements showed that SAR‐estimated wind speeds closely matched observed speeds, including the peak convective winds, which were estimated at 18.90 m·s−1 and measured at 20.69 m·s−1. Furthermore, combining these findings with GOES‐16 sequential images illustrates the temporal and spatial similarity between deep convection areas, estimated strong sea surface wind patterns, and measured wind speeds.

Assessing the impact of climate change on high return levels of peak flows in Bavaria applying the CRCM5 large ensemble

Abstract. ​​​​​​​Severe floods with extreme return periods of 100 years and beyond have been observed in several large rivers in Bavaria in the last 3 decades. Flood protection structures are typically designed based on a 100-year event, relying on statistical extrapolations of relatively short observation time series while ignoring potential temporal non-stationarity. However, future precipitation projections indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events, as well as a shift in seasonality. This study aims to examine the impact of climate change on the 100-year flood (HF100) events of 98 hydrometric gauges within hydrological Bavaria. A hydrological climate change impact (CCI) modeling chain consisting of a regional Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensemble (SMILE) and a single hydrological model was created. The 50 equally probable members of the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 large ensemble (CRCM5-LE) were used to drive the hydrological model WaSiM (Water balance Simulation Model) to create a hydro-SMILE. As a result, a database of 1500 model years (50 members × 30 years) per investigated time period was established for extreme value analysis (EVA) to illustrate the benefit of the hydro-SMILE approach for a robust estimation of HF100 based on annual maxima (AM) and to examine the CCI on the frequency and magnitude of HF100 in different discharge regimes under a strong-emission scenario (RCP8.5). The results demonstrate that the hydro-SMILE approach provides a clear advantage for a robust estimation of HF100 using the empirical probability of 1500 AM compared to its estimation using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution of 1000 samples of typically available time series sizes of 30, 100, and 200 years. Thereby, by applying the hydro-SMILE framework, the uncertainty from statistical estimation can be reduced. The study highlights the added value of using hydrological SMILEs to project future flood return levels. The CCI of HF100 varies for different flow regimes, with snowmelt-driven catchments experiencing severe increases in frequency and magnitude, leading to unseen extremes that impact the distribution. Pluvial regimes show a lower intensification or even decline. The dynamics of HF100 driving mechanisms depict a decline in snowmelt-driven events in favor of rainfall-driven events, an increase in events driven by convective rainfall, and almost no change in the ratio between single-driver and compound events towards the end of the century.

Estimating incident infrared radiation intensity on a horizontal surface

The study aims to characterize external IR heating sources, operating in free convection atmosphere, qualitatively and quantitatively for various applications. It employs non-invasive IR thermography to measure steady-state irradiations from a ceramic IR heater at variable voltages (60–150 V) using the surface energy budget (SEB) method which relies on only two measured parameters (surface and ambient temperature). The free convection heat transfer from the plate is demarcated between the thermal boundary layer (TBL) and buoyant plume-dominated region by temperature histogram tool. Nearly 78 ± 5 % of the plate area is occupied by the hot plume(s) in the studied voltage range. Estimated irradiation agrees fairly well with one another (within ± 10 %). Additionally, the time response of the plate was measured to be ∼ 120 s. This fast response can be made even faster, by reducing the thermal mass, eventually leading to low-cost IR sensors.

Investigating the role of tropical and extratropical waves in the Hadley circulation via present‐day Earth‐like to globally uniform sea‐surface temperature forcing

AbstractThe tropical overturning circulation is examined in a moist aquaplanet general circulation model forced using a non‐interactive sea‐surface temperature (SST) distribution that varies between a present‐day Earth‐like profile and one that is globally uniform. A Hadley cell (HC)‐like flow is observed in all experiments along with the poleward transport of heat and angular momentum. In simulations with non‐zero SST gradients, deep convection near the Equator sets up a deep tropical cell; midlatitude baroclinic Rossby waves flux heat and angular momentum poleward, reinforcing the thermally direct circulation. As the imposed SST gradient is weakened, the HC transitions from a thermally and eddy‐driven regime to one that is completely eddy‐driven. When the SST is globally uniform, equatorial waves concentrate precipitation in the Tropics and facilitate the lower‐level convergence necessary for the ascending branch of the HC. Midlatitude Rossby waves generated near the surface become very weak, but upper‐level baroclinicity generates waves that cause equatorward transport of heat and poleward transport of momentum. Moreover, these upper‐level waves induce a circulation that opposes the time‐mean HC, thus highlighting the role of tropical waves in driving an overturning circulation that looks similar to the present‐day Earth‐like case, even for the case with globally uniform SSTs. In all cases, anomalies associated with the tropical waves closely resemble those that sum to give the upper‐level zonal mean divergent outflow. Through their ability to modulate tropical rainfall and the related latent heating, equatorial waves cause considerable hemispheric asymmetry in the HC and impart synoptic and intraseasonal variability to the tropical overturning circulation.

Global climate modeling of the Jupiter troposphere and effect of dry and moist convection on jets

Aims. The atmosphere of Jupiter is characterized by banded jets, including an equatorial super-rotating jet, by an intense moist con-vective activity, and by perturbations exerted by vortices, waves, and turbulence. Even after space exploration missions to Jupiter and detailed numerical modeling of Jupiter, questions remain about the mechanisms underlying the banded jets and the role played by dry and moist convection in maintaining these jets. Methods. We report three-dimensional simulations of the Jupiter weather layer using a global climate model (GCM) called Jupiter-DYNAMICO, which couples hydrodynamical integrations on an icosahedral grid with detailed radiative transfer computations. We added a thermal plume model for Jupiter that emulates the effect of mixing of heat, momentum, and tracers by dry and moist convec-tive plumes that are left unresolved in the GCM mesh spacing with a physics-based approach. Results. Our Jupiter-DYNAMICO global climate simulations show that the large-scale Jovian flow, in particular the jet structure, could be highly sensitive to the water abundance in the troposphere and that an abundance threshold exists at which equatorial super-rotation develops. In contrast to our dry (or weakly moist) simulations, simulations that include the observed amount of tropospheric water exhibit a clear-cut super-rotating eastward jet at the equator and a dozen eastward mid-latitude jets that do not migrate poleward. The magnitudes agree with the observations. The convective activity simulated by our thermal plume model is weaker in the equatorial regions than in mid to high latitudes, as indicated by lightning observations. Regardless of whether they are dry or moist, our simulations exhibit the observed inverse energy cascade from small (eddies) to large scales (jets) in a zonostrophic regime.

Contrasting aerosol effects on shallow and deep convections during the Mei-yu season in China

Convective clouds during the Mei-yu season contribute significantly to the total rainfall and related disasters over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China. Studying the effects of aerosols on convective clouds is of great importance to weather and climate research. However, there are still many open questions to address. This study investigated the effects of aerosol on convections with different cloud geometrical thickness (CGT) bins during the 2018 Mei-yu season, which lasted for 17 days from 18 June to 5 July. Contrasting aerosol effects on shallow and deep convective clouds were revealed by means of anthropogenic aerosol experiments in the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). Specifically, increased anthropogenic aerosols lead to a 9% reduction in total rainfall and a 7.17% decrease in convection occurrences during the Mei-yu season. After adopting a methodology that stratifies the convective clouds by fixing the CGT, we found that increasing aerosols suppress shallow convections with CGT <4 km and invigorate deep convections with CGT >4 km. Increased aerosols enhance the scattering of shortwave radiation, resulting in cooling of the surface air and increasing the stability of the regional lower atmosphere, potentially suppressing shallow convection. Meanwhile, in deep convection, with its stronger updraft and more latent heat, convective invigoration occurs under polluted conditions due to the aerosol-related microphysical and dynamical responses. Considering the high-humidity environment during the Mei-yu season, additional relative humidity tests show that the competing aerosol effects come from convective core invigoration and convective periphery processes which enhance evaporation and dissipation, demonstrating relative humidity is a critical factor in maintaining the net aerosol effects on convections. These results contribute to a better understanding of the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on convections during the Mei-yu season and the competing effects of aerosols depending on the ambient environmental conditions.

Untangling the Mistral and Seasonal Atmospheric Forcing Driving Deep Convection in the Gulf of Lion: 1993–2013

AbstractDeep convection occurs periodically in the Gulf of Lion, in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, driven by the seasonal atmospheric change and Mistral winds. To determine the variability and drivers of both forcings, multiple 1 year ocean simulations were run, spanning from 1993 to 2013. Two sets of simulations were performed: a control and seasonal set, the first forced by unfiltered atmospheric forcing and the other by filtered forcing. The filtered forcing was bandpass filtered, retaining the seasonal and intraday aspects but removing the high frequency phenomena. Comparing the two sets allows for distinguishing the effects of the high frequency component of the Mistral on the ocean response. During the preconditioning phase, the seasonal forcing was found to be the main destratifying process, removing on average 46% of the stratification needed for deep convection to occur, versus the 28% removed by the Mistral. Despite this, each forcing triggered deep convection in roughly half of the deep‐convection events. Sensible and latent heat fluxes were found to be the main drivers of the seasonal forcing during deep‐convection years, removing 0.17 and 0.43 m2s−2 of stratification, respectively. They were themselves driven by increased wind speeds, believed to be the low frequency signal of the Mistral, as more Mistral events occur during deep‐convection winters (34% vs. 29% of the preconditioning period days). An evolving seasonal forcing in a changing climate may have significant effects on the future deep convection cycle of the western Mediterranean Sea.

Improving the Representation of Moisture and Convective Instability in Baroclinic-Wave Channel Simulations

Abstract We present an improved approach to generating moist baroclinically unstable background states for f-plane-channel simulations via potential vorticity (PV) inversion. Previous studies specified PV distributions with constant values in the troposphere and the stratosphere, but this produces unrealistic static-stability profiles that decrease sharply with height in the troposphere. Adding moisture to such environments can yield unrealistically large values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) even for reasonable relative humidity (RH) distributions. In our modified approach, we specify a PV distribution that increases with height in the troposphere and the stratosphere, yielding background states with more realistic values of static stability and CAPE. This modification produces environments that are better suited for representing moist processes, namely, deep convection, in idealized extratropical-cyclone simulations. Also, we present a method for introducing moisture that preserves a specified RH distribution while maintaining hydrostatic balance. Our approach allows for a large degree of control over the initial conditions, as background states with different jet strengths and shapes, average temperatures, moisture contents, or horizontal shears can easily be obtained without changing the underlying PV formula and inadvertently producing unreasonable values of static stability or CAPE. We demonstrate the characteristics of idealized extratropical cyclones developing in our background states by adding localized perturbations that represent an upper-level trough passing over a low-level frontal zone. In particular, we illustrate the impacts of horizontal shear, moisture, and grid spacing on baroclinic-wave development.

Hydrometeorological controls of and social response to the 22 October 2019 catastrophic flash flood in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain

Abstract. On 22 October 2019, the Francolí River basin in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain, experienced a heavy precipitation event that resulted in a catastrophic flash flood, causing six fatalities. Few studies comprehensively address both the physical and human dimensions and their interrelations during extreme flash flooding. This research takes a step forward towards filling this gap in knowledge by examining the alignment among all these factors. The hydrometeorological factors are investigated using the new Triangle-based Regional Atmospheric Model, radar-derived precipitation estimates, post-flood field and gauge observations, and the Kinematic Local Excess Model. The social dimension is assessed by examining the relationship between catchment dynamics and warning response times and by quantifying human behaviour during the course of the flash flood through a post-event citizen science campaign. Results reveal that a persistent south-easterly airflow brought low-level moisture and established convective instability in the region, while local orography was instrumental to triggering deep moist convection. A convective train promoted intense, copious, and prolonged precipitation over the north-western catchment headwaters. Basin response was significantly modulated by the very dry initial soil moisture conditions. After the long-lasting rainfall, an acute burst of precipitation resulted in extreme flash flooding. Fast and abrupt increases in streamflow affect small spatial scales and leave limited time for the effective implementation of protective measures. The institutional organization–protection–prevention cycle unfolded at the spatial and temporal scales typically dominated by the meteorological rather than hydrological scales. Although the citizen science campaign reveals the effectiveness of the warnings in reaching the population living in the most affected areas, a significant proportion of the respondents expressed a lack of adequate information or were unfamiliar with the intended meaning. In addition, a majority of the interviewees did not perceive any significant threat to life or property. In view of these results, this study identifies potential areas for improving social preparedness for similar natural hazards in the future.

Net Community Production and Inorganic Carbon Cycling in the Central Irminger Sea

AbstractThe subpolar North Atlantic plays an outsized role in the atmosphere‐to‐ocean carbon sink. The central Irminger Sea is home to well‐documented deep winter convection and high phytoplankton production, which drive strong seasonal and interannual variability in regional carbon cycling. We use observational data from moored carbonate chemistry system sensors and annual turn‐around cruise samples at the Ocean Observatories Initiative's Irminger Sea Array to construct a near‐continuous time series of mixed layer total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), pCO2, and total alkalinity from summer 2015 to summer 2022. We use these carbonate chemistry system time series to deconvolve the physical and biological drivers of surface ocean carbon cycling in this region on seasonal, annual, and interannual time scales. We find high annual net community production within the seasonally varying mixed layer, averaging 9.8 ± 1.6 mol m−2 yr−1 with high interannual variability (range of 6.0–13.9 mol m−2 yr−1). The highest daily net community production rates occur during the late winter and early spring, prior to the observed high chlorophyll concentrations associated with the spring phytoplankton bloom. As a result, the winter and early spring play a much larger role in biological carbon export from the mixed layer than traditionally thought.

The Impact of the Explicit Representation of Convection on the Climate of a Tidally Locked Planet in Global Stretched-mesh Simulations

Convective processes are crucial in shaping exoplanetary atmospheres but are computationally expensive to simulate directly. A novel technique of simulating moist convection on tidally locked exoplanets is to use a global 3D model with a stretched mesh. This allows us to locally refine the model resolution to 4.7 km and resolve fine-scale convective processes without relying on parameterizations. We explore the impact of mesh stretching on the climate of a slowly rotating TRAPPIST-1e-like planet, assuming it is 1:1 tidally locked. In the stretched-mesh simulation with explicit convection, the climate is 5 K colder and 25% drier than that in the simulations with parameterized convection(with both stretched and quasi-uniform meshes). This is due to the increased cloud reflectivity—because of an increase in low-level cloudiness—and exacerbated by the diminished greenhouse effect due to less water vapor. At the same time, our stretched-mesh simulations reproduce the key characteristics of the global climate of tidally locked rocky exoplanets, without any noticeable numerical artifacts. Our methodology opens an exciting and computationally feasible avenue for improving our understanding of 3D mixing in exoplanetary atmospheres. Our study also demonstrates the feasibility of a global stretched-mesh configuration for LFRic-Atmosphere, the next-generation Met Office climate and weather model.

Sensitivities of the West Greenland Current to Greenland Ice Sheet Meltwater in a Mesoscale Ocean/Sea Ice Model

Abstract Meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet can alter the continental shelf/slope circulation and cross-shelf freshwater fluxes and limit deep convection in adjacent basins through surface freshening. We explore the impacts on the West Greenland Current and eastern Labrador Sea with different vertical distributions of the meltwater forcing. In this study, we present the results from global coupled ocean/sea ice simulations, forced with atmospheric reanalysis, that are mesoscale eddy-active (∼2–3-km horizontal spacing) and eddy-permitting (∼6–7-km horizontal spacing) in the study region. We compare the West Greenland Current in mesoscale eddy-active and eddy-permitting without meltwater to highlight the role of small-scale features. The mesoscale eddy-active configuration is then used to assess the change in the eastern Labrador Sea when meltwater is added to the surface or vertically distributed to account for mixing within fjords. In both simulations with meltwater, the West Greenland and West Greenland Coastal Currents are faster than in the simulation with no meltwater; their mean surface speeds are the highest in the vertical distribution case. In the latter case, there is enhanced baroclinic conversion at the shelf break compared to the simulation with no meltwater. When meltwater is vertically distributed, there is an increase in baroclinic conversion at the shelf break associated with increased eddy kinetic energy. In addition, in the eastern Labrador Sea, the salinity is lower and the meltwater volume is greater when meltwater is vertically distributed. Therefore, the West Greenland Current is sensitive to how meltwater is added to the ocean with implications for the freshening of the Labrador Sea. Significance Statement Our goal is to understand how the flux of freshwater across the West Greenland continental slope into the Labrador Sea is modified by meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet. We compare the simulations of the ocean that capture key dynamics along the West Greenland continental slope that have no meltwater, meltwater added to the ocean surface, and meltwater distributed vertically to represent the mixing within fjords. When meltwater is added, the currents along the continental slope are faster, with the greatest increase when meltwater is vertically distributed. In that case, there is enhanced freshening of the Labrador Sea because modified density gradients generate more eddies. Proper representation of the vertical structure of meltwater is important for projecting the impact of freshwater on the subpolar North Atlantic.

Land-sea contrast of vertical structure of precipitation over Sumatra revealed by GPM DPR observations

This study examines the land-sea contrast in the vertical structure of precipitation over Sumatra and its surrounding ocean using eight years (2014–2021) of dual-frequency precipitation radar (DPR) data from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. The study area is segmented into Ocean, Coast I (west coast), Land I (west of Barisan Mountains), Land II (east of Barisan Mountains), and Coast II (east coast). The effective reflectivity factor (Ze), rainfall rate (R), and two raindrop size distribution (DSD) parameters, namely the mass-weighted mean diameter (Dm) and the normalized intercept (Nw), were analyzed. Stratiform and deep convective rainfall were the most frequent types in Coast I, followed by Ocean, Land I, Land II, and Coast II. In contrast, shallow convective rainfall was the most common type in Ocean, followed by Coast I, Land I, Land II, and Coast II. The average rain top height (RTH) was found to be higher in Land II and Coast II than in Ocean, Coast I, and Land I, in accordance with the surface rainfall intensity pattern previously reported by other studies. Furthermore, the data on heavy ice precipitation demonstrated an increase from the ocean to the coast and land, with a significant number of instances observed in Land I, Land II, and Coast II, in addition to Coast I. This contrast in heavy ice precipitation and RTH influences DSD. The land-sea contrast of DSD is more pronounced for deep convective rains. Deep convective exhibited a lower frequency of large raindrops over the ocean than over the coast and land, as reflected in the Dm profile. Conversely, raindrop concentration, particularly small drops, was higher at sea. The percentage of Dm > 2 mm at sea was approximately 2%, rising to 4–6% in Land II and Coast II. The land-sea contrast in the vertical structure of precipitation over Sumatra exhibited apparent diurnal variation. Larger Dm and smaller Nw were observed over Land I and Coast I, particularly in the afternoon and evening, correlating with peak rainfall. This pattern aligns with heavy ice precipitation profiles, vertical relative humidity (RH), and wind profiles. This study highlights the complexities and potential discrepancies between vertical precipitation profiles and surface precipitation data, underscoring the nuanced nature of land-sea precipitation migration.

Mechanical and Thermal Forcing for Upslope Flows and Cumulus Convection over the Sierras de Córdoba

Abstract The upslope flow processes affecting the vertical extent of orographic cumulus convection are examined using observations from the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) Field Campaign. Specifically, clear-air returns from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) C-band radar (CSAPR2) are used to characterize the structure and variability of the ridge-normal (i.e., up/downslope) flow components, which transport mass to the crest of Argentina’s Sierras de Córdoba and contribute to convective initiation. Data are compiled for the entire CACTI period (Oct-Apr), including days with clear skies, shallow cumuli, cumulus congestus, and deep convection. To examine shared variability amongst &gt;70,000 radar scans we use (a) a principal component analysis (PCA) to isolate modes of variability in the upslope flow, and (b) composite analysis based on convective outcomes, determined from GOES16 satellite observations. These data are contextualized with observed surface sensible heat fluxes, thermodynamic profiles, and synoptic-scale analysis. Results indicate distinct thermally and mechanically forced upslope flow modes, modulated by diurnal heating and synoptic-scale variations, respectively. In some instances, there is a superposition of thermal and mechanical forcing, yielding either deeper or shallower upslope flow. The composite analyses based on satellite data show that successively deeper convective outcomes are associated with successively deeper upslope flow layers that more readily transport mass to the ridge crest in conjunction with lower lifting condensation levels, facilitating convective initiation. These results help to isolate the forcing mechanisms for orographic convection, and thus provide a foundation for parameterizing orographic convective processes in coarse resolution models.

Diversity of Tropical Cyclones Rapid Intensification

AbstractThe study investigates the rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Northwestern Pacific. We found that rapid changes in the maximum wind speed (Vmax) and the minimum central pressure (Pmin) are not always concurrent. RI cases can be categorized into three types: (a) RIv, only Vmax strengthens rapidly; (b) RIp, only Pmin decreases rapidly; (c) RIpv, rapid changes in Vmax and Pmin occur concurrently. At the onset of RI, RIv‐type TCs exhibit the weakest intensity and the smallest size, with deep convection concentrated in the inner‐core region; RIp‐type TCs are characterized by the strongest cyclone intensity and the largest outer‐core size, with strong convection covering the inner‐ and outer‐core regions; RIpv‐type TCs show moderate intensity, size, and convection distribution. For RIpv, significant strengthening of wind profile is concentrated in the inner‐core region, while for RIp it is more prominent in the outer‐core.

Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Manicaragua city, Cuba

The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are a way to visualize and represent extreme hydrometeorological rainfall events. In this article, an analysis of convective rainfall events recorded at the La Piedra Meteorological Station, Villa Clara, Cuba, was conducted. To develop IDF curves, the 2006- 2019 time series was analyzed. A partial duration series was generated, including intervals from 20 minutes to 4320 minutes, subjected to an outlier detection process. The series was divided into two categories: one for durations ≤ 720 minutes and another for durations &gt; 720 minutes. The resulting series underwent nonparametric tests to assess their independence, randomness, homogeneity, and seasonality. Subsequently, they were fitted to the Generalized Pareto probability distribution and to a parametric equation of the Montana model, and then the curves were plotted for return periods of 10, 50 and 100. The Montana model led to obtaining correlation coefficients greater than 0.90 compared to the other methods used, significantly improving the quality of the fit in both categories. This research provides information to understand and plan the management of intense climatic phenomena and adequate risk management in an area where such studies are lacking, facilitating access to crucial data essential in the design and execution of hydraulic engineering projects in the region.

Synchronous Tropical Andean Hydroclimate Variability During the Last Millennium

AbstractThe impact of latitudinal variations in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) on northern Andean hydroclimate during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 950–1,150 CE) and Little Ice Age (LIA; 1,300–1,850 CE) is uncertain. Synthesis of two new lacustrine paleoclimate records from the Eastern Colombian Andes with existing circum‐Andean records shows that effective moisture anomalies were synchronous and in phase across the tropical Andes during the last millennium. During the MCA, when the ITCZ was shifted northward, topographically controlled responses in the northern Andes to vigorous atmospheric convection resulted in low precipitation and high evaporation, while precipitation was also reduced in the southern tropical Andes. During the LIA, precipitation decreased in the northern Andes as the ITCZ migrated southward but was offset by cooling that lowered evaporation, establishing high effective moisture. In the southern tropical Andes, the southward ITCZ position simultaneously strengthened precipitation, increasing effective moisture. MCA‐like responses to continued warming trends could similarly reduce northern Andean precipitation while increasing evaporation, thereby lowering effective moisture and possibly reducing water resource availability.

U-HRNet+: a real-time precipitation estimation method based on the fusion of temporal and spatial domain features

ABSTRACT The precipitation estimation with high spatial and temporal resolution over Tibet is of great significance for monitoring the stability of the plateau ecosystem and early warning of natural disasters. In response to the problem of the unsatisfactory accuracy in traditional real-time precipitation inversion methods and quantitative accuracy estimation products in this region. This paper adopts deep-learning methods to explore the corresponding relationship between precipitation and multi-band observation data from geostationary satellite imagery. The U-High Resolution Network (U-HRNet) as backbone is fully exploited to generate multi-scale features and fused using attention gates to extract high-resolution spatial representations representing precipitation clouds, thereby achieving precipitation estimation of target clouds at different scales. In addition, in response to the characteristics of high precipitation intensity and drastic cloud cluster changes in summer convective weather within a short period of time, a multi-head attention mechanism is introduced to extract temporal information from time series inputs and fuse it with spatial features to improve the accuracy of real-time precipitation estimation. Compared with the operational precipitation products and baseline deep-learning models, the classification metrics such as Probability of detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR) and Critical success index (CSI) show that the proposed model (U-HRNet+) has better performance in test set and has high generalization ability for estimating short-term heavy rainfall over Tibet and its surrounding areas in summer. Therefore, the proposed model has the potential to serve as a more accurate and reliable satellite-based precipitation estimation product.

A Level 3 monthly gridded ice cloud dataset derived from 12 years of CALIOP measurements

Abstract. Clouds play important roles in weather, climate, and the global water cycle. The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) onboard the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) spacecraft has measured global vertical profiles of clouds and aerosols in the Earth’s atmosphere since June 2006. CALIOP provides vertically resolved information on cloud occurrence, thermodynamic phase, and properties. We describe version 1.0 of a monthly gridded ice cloud product derived from over 12 years of global, near-continuous CALIOP measurements. The primary contents are monthly vertically resolved histograms of ice cloud extinction coefficient and ice water content (IWC) retrievals. The CALIOP Level 3 Ice Cloud product is built from the CALIOP Version 4.20 Level 2 5 km Cloud Profile product that, relative to previous versions, features substantial improvements due to more accurate lidar backscatter calibration, better extinction coefficient retrievals, and a temperature-sensitive parameterization of IWC. The gridded ice cloud data are reported as histograms, which provides data users with the flexibility to compare CALIOP’s retrieved ice cloud properties with those from other instruments with different measurement sensitivities or retrieval capabilities. It is also convenient to aggregate monthly histograms for seasonal, annual, or decadal trend and climate analyses. This CALIOP gridded ice cloud product provides a unique characterization of the global and regional vertical distributions of optically thin ice clouds and deep convection cloud tops, and it should provide significant value for cloud research and model evaluation. A DOI has been issued for the product: https://doi.org/10.5067/CALIOP/CALIPSO/L3_ICE_CLOUD-STANDARD-V1-00 (Winker et al., 2018).