Moderate Wind Research Articles

Compound Extremes Drive the Western Oregon Wildfires of September 2020

AbstractSeveral very large high‐impact fires burned nearly 4,000 km2 of mesic forests in western Oregon during September 7–9, 2020. While infrequent, very large high‐severity fires have occurred historically in western Oregon, the extreme nature of this event warrants analyses of climate and meteorological drivers. A strong blocking pattern led to an intrusion of dry air and strong downslope east winds in the Oregon Cascades following a warm‐dry 60‐day period that promoted widespread fuel flammability. Viewed independently, both the downslope east winds and fuel dryness were extreme, but not unprecedented. However, the concurrence of these drivers resulted in compound extremes and impacts unmatched in the observational record. We additionally find that most large wildfires in western Oregon since 1900 have similarly coincided with warm‐dry summers during at least moderate east wind events. These results reinforce the importance of incorporating a multivariate lens for compound extremes in assessing wildfire hazard risk.

Centennial-scale variability of terrestrial near-surface wind speed over China from reanalysis

AbstractInvestigations of variations and causes of near-surface wind speed (NWS) further understanding of the atmospheric changes and improve the ability of climate analysis and projections. NWS varies on multiple temporal scales; however, the centennial-scale variability in NWS and associated causes over China remains unknown. In this study, we employ the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) twentieth century reanalysis (ERA-20C) to study the centennial-scale changes in NWS from 1900–2010. Meanwhile, a forward stepwise regression algorithm is used to reveal the relationships between NWS and large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulations. The results show three unique periods in annual mean NWS over China from 1900–2010. The annual mean NWS displayed a decreasing trend of -0.87% decade-1 and -11.75% decade-1 from 1900–1925 and 1957–2010, respectively, which were caused by the decreases in the days with strong winds, with trends of -6.64 and -4.66 days decade-1, respectively. The annual mean NWS showed an upward trend of 55.47% decade-1 from 1926–1956, which was caused by increases in the days with moderate (0.43 days decade-1) and strong winds (23.55 days decade-1). The reconstructed wind speeds based on forward stepwise regression algorithm matched well with the original wind speeds; therefore, the decadal changes in NWS over China at centennial-scale were mainly induced by large-scale ocean-atmosphere circulations, with the total explanation power of 66%. The strongest explanation power was found in winter (74%), and the weakest explanation power was found in summer (46%).

Dynamic Analysis of the Optimized Savonius Vertical Axis Wind Turbine Composite Blades

Abstract This article presents a comprehensive study of the dynamic behavior of small vertical-axis wind turbines (VAWTs) based on local fabricated Savonius VAWTs, which is suitable for countries that have a moderate wind speed. The merits of this design are cleanliness, silent, start-up under low wind speed, independent wind directions, adaptability, and ease of manufacturing. Also, this article presents an experimental validation study for the optimized Savonius VAWT. Four verification test configurations of the optimized VAWT composite blades are designed, simulated, and fabricated of Glass—Polyester with different stacking sequence layout for each. Modified mechanical parameters are introduced to improve the scalability, reliability, and accuracy of the developed models. Based on wind energy conversion system basics, aerodynamic characteristics (tip speed ratio (λ) and coefficient of power (Cp)) and dynamic characteristics (natural frequencies and mode shapes) of Savonius rotor models are presented and simulated within solidworks simulation 2020 software. The dynamic characteristics such as frequency, mode shape, and damping factor are extensively investigated using fast Fourier transform (FFT) analyzer. The results show that the role of composite material blades in improving the dynamic performance of a wind turbine is significant.

A Case Study on Pathogen Transport, Deposition, Evaporation and Transmission: Linking High-Fidelity Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulations to Probability of Infection

A high-fidelity, low-Mach computational fluid dynamics simulation tool that includes evaporating droplets and variable-density turbulent flow coupling is well-suited to ascertain transmission probability and supports risk mitigation methods development for airborne infectious diseases such as COVID-19. A multi-physics large-eddy simulation-based paradigm is used to explore droplet and aerosol pathogen transport from a synthetic cough emanating from a kneeling humanoid. For an outdoor configuration that mimics the recent open-space social distance strategy of San Francisco, maximum primary droplet deposition distances are shown to approach 8.1 m in a moderate wind configuration with the aerosol plume transported in excess of 15 m. In quiescent conditions, the aerosol plume extends to approximately 4 m before the emanating pulsed jet becomes neutrally buoyant. A dose–response model, which is based on previous SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) data, is exercised on the high-fidelity aerosol transport database to establish relative risk at eighteen virtual receptor probe locations.

Influence of Wind on Suspended Matter in the Water of the Albufera of Valencia (Spain)

Wind significantly influences suspended matter in lakes, especially in shallow lagoons. To know how wind affects the water in Albufera of Valencia, a shallow coastal lagoon, the measured variables of turbidity and transparency have been correlated with the estimates by processing Sentinel-2 satellite images with the Sen2Cor processor. Data from four years of study of winds show that most of them are light to gentle easterly breezes and moderate to fresh westerly breezes. The obtained results show significant correlations between the measured variables and those obtained from the satellite images for total suspended matter and water transparency, as well as with the average daily wind speed. There is no significant correlation between wind and chlorophyll a. Moderate to fresh breezes resuspend the fine sediment reaching concentration values from 100 to 300 mg L−1 according to satellite data. However, it is necessary to obtain field data for the values of moderate and fresh winds, as for now, there are no experimental data to verify the validity of the satellite estimates.

GOES-16 observations of rapidly-intensifying tropical cyclones: Hurricanes Harvey (2017), Maria (2017), and Michael (2018)

AbstractThis study utilizes brightness temperatures (Tb’s) observed by the infrared longwave window band (Ch 14; 11.2 μm) from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (GOES-16) to examine the structure of Hurricanes Harvey, Maria, and Michael throughout their lifetimes. During the times leading up to their rapid intensifications (RI), two-dimensional inner-core structures are examined to analyze the strength and location of the developing convection. Moderate vertical wind shear in the environments of Harvey and Michael induced a pronounced convective asymmetry prior to RI, followed by a rapid axisymmetrization that occurred essentially in conjunction with RI. The evolutions of the tropical cyclones’ (TCs’) coldest Tb’s indicate that the inner-core convective activity began to increase in the 12 h prior to RI onset, primarily in 2–4-h substantial “bursts”, while substantial convection dominated essentially the entirety of the region within 100 km of the surface center within 12 h of the onset of intensification.Azimuthally averaged Tb evolutions illustrate the development of each TCs’ eye and eyewall, the variability of the radial extent of the central dense overcast associated with the diurnal cycle, as well as details of the evolving convective structures throughout intensification. Hövmoller diagrams of data at constant radii reveal areas of cold Tb’s propagating around the TCs on timescales of 2–3-h. The examination of these features in a deep-layer shear-relative sense reveals that they initiate primarily downshear of the TCs’ surface centers. As RI is reached, these areas of convection are able to propagate into the upshear quadrants, which helps facilitate the onset of more substantial intensification.

Occurrence Regularity of Silt–Clay Minerals in Wind Eroded Deserts of Northwest China

Wind erosion desertification is the most serious type of land degradation in Northwest China, so it is an important task for ecological management in the region. As the core of ecological management, soil quality is mainly affected by the presence of silt–clay content. Therefore, the grasp of its occurrence regularity is the key to controlling wind erosion desertification. At present, research on silt–clay contents is mainly independent in each local area and lacks integrity, which makes it difficult to meet the overall evaluation and planning requirements. To this end, this paper reviewed the related studies on the occurrence and control of wind erosion desertification in recent years and collected nearly 300 relevant silt–clay content data points. We studied the occurrence regularity of silt–clay content during the occurrence and treatment of wind erosion desertification and revealed the mechanism of silt–clay content in different processes. On this basis, the degree of wind erosion desertification in the major areas of Northwest China in the last five years was evaluated by calculations based on soil typing theory, and the fractal dimension interval (2.41–2.53) for the critical discrimination of desertification in these areas was obtained. The results showed that there were obvious distribution intervals of silt–clay content for different degrees of wind erosion desertification. Qualitative changes in soil quality during degradation ranged from light to moderate wind erosion desertification. The occurrence and control of wind erosion desertification were largely affected by the processes of silt–clay particles loss and aggregation. Among the three main treatment measures, biological measures enhanced silt–clay content most significantly. In this study, the occurrence regularity of silt–clay minerals in wind erosion desertification in Northwest China was revealed as a whole. This study provided a preliminary overall judgement of the dynamic evolution of wind erosion desertification, which provided a reference for the overall evaluation and global governance planning of wind erosion desertification in Northwest China.

Meteorological Drivers of Permian Basin Methane Anomalies Derived from TROPOMI

The launch of the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on the Sentinel-5 Precursor (S-5P) satellite has revolutionized pollution observations from space. The purpose of this study was to link spatiotemporal variations in TROPOMI methane (CH4) columns to meteorological flow patterns over the Permian Basin, the largest oil and second-largest natural gas producing region in the United States. Over a two-year period (1 December 2018–1 December 2020), the largest average CH4 enhancements were observed near and to the north and west of the primary emission regions. Four case study periods—two with moderate westerly winds associated with passing weather disturbances (8–15 March 2019 and 1 April–10 May 2019) and two other periods dominated by high pressure and low wind speeds (16–23 March 2019 and 24 September–9 October 2020)—were analyzed to better understand meteorological drivers of the variability in CH4. Meteorological observations and analyses combined with TROPOMI observations suggest that weakened transport out of the Basin during low wind speed periods contributes to CH4 enhancements throughout the Basin, while valley and slope flows may explain the observed western expansion of the Permian Basin CH4 anomaly.

A Novel Sea Surface Roughness Parameterization Based on Wave State and Sea Foam

A wave state related sea surface roughness parameterization scheme that takes into account the impact of sea foam is proposed in this study. Using eight observational datasets, the performances of two most widely used wave state related parameterizations are examined under various wave conditions. Based on the different performances of two wave state related parameterizations under different wave state, and by introducing the effect of sea foam, a new sea surface roughness parameterization suitable for low to extreme wind conditions is proposed. The behaviors of drag coefficient predicted by the proposed parameterization match the field and laboratory measurements well. It is shown that the drag coefficient increases with the increasing wind speed under low and moderate wind speed conditions, and then decreases with increasing wind speed, due to the effect of sea foam under high wind speed conditions. The maximum values of the drag coefficient are reached when the 10 m wind speeds are in the range of 30–35 m/s.

Sustainable Energy: Challenges of Implementing New Technologies

Sudan is an agricultural country with fertile land, plenty of water resources, livestock, forestry resources, and agricultural residues. Energy is one of the key factors for the development of national economies in Sudan. An overview of the energy situation in Sudan is introduced with reference to the end uses and regional distribution. Energy sources are divided into two main types; conventional energy (biomass, petroleum products, and electricity); and non-conventional energy (solar, wind, hydro, etc.). Sudan possesses a relatively high abundance of sunshine, solar radiation, and moderate wind speeds, hydro, and biomass energy resources. Application of new and renewable sources of energy available in Sudan is now a major issue in the future energy strategic planning for the alternative to the fossil conventional energy to provide part of the local energy demand. Sudan is an important case study in the context of renewable energy. It has a long history of meeting its energy needs through renewables. Sudan’s renewables portfolio is broad and diverse, due in part to the country’s wide range of climates and landscapes. Like many of the African leaders in renewable energy utilisation, Sudan has a well-defined commitment to continue research, development, and implementation of new technologies. Sustainable low-carbon energy scenarios for the new century emphasise the untapped potential of renewable resources. Rural areas of Sudan can benefit from this transition. The increased availability of reliable and efficient energy services stimulates new development alternatives. It is concluded that renewable environmentally friendly energy must be encouraged, promoted, implemented, and demonstrated by full-scale plant especially for use in remote rural areas.

Modeling Optical Properties of Non‐Cubical Sea‐Salt Particles

AbstractDry sodium chloride forms cubic crystals, while marine aerosol particles often display more or less irregular deviations from this ideal form. In this study, three non‐ideal cuboidal and octahedral model geometries are investigated. Superellipsoids are tested as a model to simulate the linear backscatter depolarization ratio and the extinction‐to‐backscatter ratio. Gaussian random cubes as well as convex polyhedra are investigated as possible model candidates to quantify the error introduced by simplified model geometries, such as superellipsoids. Uncertainties in the real and imaginary part of the refractive index are studied, and their effect on the optical properties is compared to that caused by morphological variations. Optical calculations were performed at a wavelength of 532 nm using the discrete dipole approximation and the T‐matrix method. The considered size range is representative for marine aerosol generated at low to moderate wind speeds. It is found that cuboidal superellipsoids predict depolarization and extinction‐to‐backscatter ratios that are consistent with observations. On the other hand, octahedral superellipsoids strongly overestimate the depolarization ratio. Gaussian random surface perturbations result in a positive shift of the depolarization ratio compared to cuboidal superellipsoids. By contrast, convex polyhedra yield results that more or less randomly scatter about those of regular cubes. Thus, convex polyhedra are a promising candidate for modeling random errors, while Gaussian random cubes are not. Uncertainties in the refractive index result in perturbations of the depolarization and extinction‐to‐backscatter ratio that are of comparable magnitude as those caused by perturbations of the geometry.

Renewable Power and Electricity Prices: The Impact of Forward Markets

Increasing variable renewable power generation (e.g., wind) is expected to reduce wholesale electricity prices by virtue of its low marginal production cost. This merit-order effect of renewables displacing incumbent conventional (e.g., gas) generation forms the theoretical underpinning for investment decisions and policy in the power industry. This paper uses a game-theoretic market model to investigate how intermittently available wind generation affects electricity prices in the presence of forward markets, which are widely used by power companies to hedge against revenue variability ahead of near-real-time spot trading. We find that in addition to the established merit-order effect, renewable generation affects power prices through forward-market hedging. This forward effect reinforces the merit-order effect in reducing prices for moderate amounts of wind generation capacity but mitigates or even reverses it for higher capacities. For moderate wind capacity, uncertainty over its output increases hedging, and these higher forward sales lead to lower prices. For higher capacities, however, wind variability conversely causes power producers to behave less aggressively in forward trading for fear of unfavorable spot-market positions. The lower sales counteract the merit-order effect, and prices may then paradoxically increase with wind capacity despite its lower production cost. We confirm the potential for such reversals in a numerical study, suggesting new empirical questions while providing potential explanations for previously contradictory observed effects of market fundamentals. We conclude that considering the conventional merit-order effect alone is insufficient for evaluating the price impacts of variable renewable generation in the presence of forward markets. This paper was accepted by Vishal Gaur, operations management.

Self‐organizing map classification of the boundary layer profile: A refinement of Eastern Mediterranean winter synoptic regimes

AbstractThe boundary layer (BL) profile over the coastal plain of Israel, Eastern Mediterranean (EM), varies considerably during winter. Although in the context of air pollution, the characteristics of the BL height (BLH) was intensively investigated, a quantitative classification of the BL profile regimes has not been performed. Here, we seek to reveal the dominant, recurring regimes of the BL profiles, their quantitative characteristics and links to regional synoptic‐scale patterns. An objective unsupervised classification of winter BL radiosonde profiles is performed for the first time by multi‐parameter self‐organizing map (SOM) analysis. The analysis uses high‐resolution, 12:00‐UTC data of wind, temperature, humidity and pressure measurements during December to February 2007–2018, and yields 30 distinct profile regimes. Composite analysis using ERA5 reanalysis suggests strong association between the profile regimes and synoptic weather systems and highlights four groups: (a) Deep winter cyclones with strong westerly wind and precipitation; (b) Strong surface anticyclones and Red Sea troughs (RST) with a mid‐tropospheric ridge, moderate dry easterly wind and extreme temperatures. (c) Moderate pressure gradients under shallow cyclones, anticyclone to the west and RST to the east of Israel. (d) Active RSTs, accompanied by upper‐tropospheric trough/cutoff low and heavy precipitation. For the first time, general objective classification observes the active RST without requiring specific criteria. Consistent with previous knowledge, the new classification exhibits distinct categories of thermal stability, BLH and turbulence. Importantly, we show that the automatic objective classification of profile data from a single station can be a sensitive discriminator of winter synoptic regimes in the EM, and therefore explains the variability of the BL profile. It facilitates the study of the interaction between the BL and the free troposphere and may improve the prediction of air pollution or future BL profile regimes based on long time series from historical data or climate models.

Effects of Architectural Irregularities on the Seismic Behavior of Buildings

Cooperation between the architect and the civil engineer has nowadays become essential in any project for the client’s requests’ sake. This study was made to show this idea’s importance and beneficial consequences. For this purpose, a 40-story dual-system high-rise building has been designed to resist moderate seismic and high wind loads. Three main models were formed: Starting with the net model, which is the regular model, followed by the mass irregularity models that were generated for the luxury floor desires (this irregularity was placed in two different locations, namely at the top and middle position), ending with the soft story irregularity models that were cited in the building’s middle and bottom for the gym floor’s need. The positions for each irregularity were tested and compared to those of the regular model under the effect of seismic load on one hand and under the influence of three different wind loads on the other. The required wind loads studied in this article were assigned from the wind speeds of 80, 100 and 120 mph. For these models’ analysis, RSA using finite element method on ETABS was used.The results exhibited that the peak wind speed this building held was 110 mph for both irregularities. Furthermore, the seismically-designed high-rise buildings might not be safe enough to resist a wind load speed of 120 mph. In addition, the middle location is the most preferable locus for these irregularities to occur regarding wind and seismic loads because of its minor displacement, drift and base shear. Besides, it ensured the economic cost of the mass irregularity ($1,706,380), which is in turn less than that of the top position ($1,790,187). The same applies for the stiffness irregularity cost, requiring a budget of $1,632,310 in the middle position but an expense of $1,676,368 for the bottom locus. Although the irregularity’s perfect location seemed unfamiliar, it pursues the sake of the client, the architect and the civil engineer alike.

Analyses of three-dimensional weather radar data from volcanic eruption clouds

This paper demonstrates the advantages of three-dimensional (3D) analysis and visualization of weather radar data for studies on the inner structure of eruption columns and their 3D ash-fall distributions. The 3D data were collected using an operational X-band polarimetric radar located ~11 km from the Showa vent of Sakurajima, Japan. Three eruption cases were chosen for the analysis to study the effect of environmental wind conditions on the inner structure of an eruption column and horizontal ash-fall distributions at 1000 m height: a 3677-m-high eruption on 13 June 2013 under calm winds (Case 1), a 3982-m-high eruption on 7 October 2013 under strong winds (Case 2), and a 4520-m-high eruption on 18 August 2013 under moderate winds (Case 3). The Analytical Tools for Three-dimensional Weather Radar Data (ANT3D) package was developed and used for the construction of 3D constant altitude plan position indicator (3D CAPPI) data from eruption columns. The quantitative ash-fall analyses of 3D CAPPI data revealed that the total ash-fall amounts of the Case 1, Case 2, and Case 3 eruptions were 6.24 × 107, 9.99 × 107, and 6.71 × 107 kg, respectively, and the total ash-fall areas at the 1000-m height were 29.7, 151.3, and 107.7 km2, respectively. It was shown that the area of the maximum ash-fall amount at the 1000-m height depends on the environmental conditions. The accumulated ash-fall distribution area was limited to over and around the vent in the Case 1 eruption, whereas the ash distribution pattern was elongated to the downwind direction and multiple ash concentration maxima were formed in the Case 2 eruption probably due to the multiple eruptions. The accumulated ash-fall distribution was also elongated to the down wind direction in the Case 3 eruption but a single maximum concentration which was larger than that in the Case 2 eruption was found inland of Sakurajima. The 3D CAPPI data were visualized using techniques such as surface rendering, volume rendering, bird's eye viewing, and cross-sectional analysis. The 3D visualizations suggest that vertical size-sorting and aggregation occurred in the buoyancy-driven regions of the eruption columns in all three cases. The results of this study will contribute to the understanding of volcanic eruption column dynamics and horizontal ash-fall transportation.

Wind Turbine Operation Curves Modelling Techniques

Wind turbines are machines operating in non-stationary conditions and the power of a wind turbine depends non-trivially on environmental conditions and working parameters. For these reasons, wind turbine power monitoring is a complex task which is typically addressed through data-driven methods for constructing a normal behavior model. On these grounds, this study is devoted the analysis of meaningful operation curves, which are rotor speed-power, generator speed-power and blade pitch-power. A key point is that these curves are analyzed in the appropriate operation region of the wind turbines: the rotor and generator curves are considered for moderate wind speed, when the blade pitch is fixed and the rotational speed varies (Region 2); the blade pitch curve is considered for higher wind speed, when the rotational speed is rated (Region 2 12). The selected curves are studied through a multivariate Support Vector Regression with Gaussian Kernel on the Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) data of two wind farms sited in Italy, featuring in total 15 2 MW wind turbines. An innovative aspect of the selected models is that minimum, maximum and standard deviation of the independent variables of interest are fed as input to the models, in addition to the typically employed average values: using the additional covariates proposed in this work, the error metrics decrease of order of one third, with respect to what would be obtained by employing as regressors only the average values of the independent variables. In general it results that, for all the considered curves, the prediction of the power is characterized by error metrics which are competitive with the state of the art in the literature for multivariate wind turbine power curve analysis: in particular, for one test case, a mean absolute percentage error of order of 2.5% is achieved. Furthermore, the approach presented in this study provides a superior capability of interpreting wind turbine performance in terms of the behavior of the main sub-components and eliminates as much as possible the dependence on nacelle anemometer data, whose use is critical because of issues related to the sites complexity.

The effects of drift and winds on the propagation of Galactic cosmic rays

ABSTRACT We study the effects of drift motions and the advection by a Galactic wind on the propagation of cosmic rays in the Galaxy. We employ a simplified magnetic field model, based on (and similar to) the Jansson–Farrar model for the Galactic magnetic field. Diffusion is allowed to be anisotropic. The relevant equations are solved numerically, using a set of stochastic differential equations. Inclusion of drift and a Galactic wind significantly shortens the residence time of cosmic rays, even for moderate wind speeds.

Weather in the Hungarian Lowland from the Point of View of Humans

Weather at different locations in the Hungarian lowland in different seasons (winter, summer) and times of day (morning, noon) is investigated from the human biometeorological point of view. Human thermal load characteristics of weather are described in terms of clothing resistance and operative temperature. Individual human thermal load–thermal sensation relationships have been estimated to study weather variation in the cities of Sopron (cooler part of Hungary) and Szeged (warmer part of Hungary). In the clothing resistance model, the humans are walking at a speed of 1.1 ms−1 in outdoor conditions without sweating. The main findings are as follows. (1) In the early summer mornings, the weather is sensed as “neutral” or “cool”, in these cases the inter-person variation effect is very small. (2) At noon in summer, heat stresses (clothing resistance parameter values less than −2 clo) are registered. In these cases, high temperature and irradiation, as well as low or moderate wind, characterized the atmospheric environment. Then, the inter-person variation effect is clearly visible. (3) The strength of summer heat excess at noon seems to be larger than the strength of winter heat deficit in the early morning. (4) Clothing resistance differences caused by inter-person variations and by weather variations between the cities of Sopron and Szeged are comparable in the majority of cases. When they are not comparable, the site variation effect is much larger than the inter-person variation effect. The clothing resistance model is constructed for individual use and it can be equally applied on both weather and climate data.

Linking variability in early life growth of Sardinella lemuru to changes in habitat conditions in Zamboanga upwelling system, Sulu Sea, the Philippines

The year-class success of small pelagic fish is strongly modulated by the growth and survival of early life stages. Determining how environments control growth is critical to understanding processes influencing annual production. We provide the first measurements of larval growth in Sardinella lemuru, the most abundant and exploited tropical sardine species in the Philippines. Growth rates of larvae were examined across a 2 yr period (2011-2012 and 2012-2013 spawning seasons) using otolith microstructure analysis. Transition to the juvenile stage occurred within 25 to 37 d. Mean growth rate of the 2011 year-class was significantly lower than the 2012 year-class despite significant intra-annual (batch) differences in growth trajectories. In both years, larvae that hatched and developed in the cooler yet prey-rich period in the middle of the spawning season (January) displayed the fastest growth, while those spawned early (September-October 2012) and late (February-March 2012) showed the slowest growth rates. Peak hatch-months (December 2011 and October 2012) were just prior to periods of upwelling, with mean prey concentrations of 0.24 ± 0.13 mg m-3 at 26.35 ± 2.56°C sea surface temperature (SST) and 0.23 ± 0.15 mg m-3 at 26.26 ± 1.79°C, respectively. The SST during upwelling was 0.01 to 1.23°C cooler accompanied by a 0.07 to 0.45 mg m-3 increase in prey concentration. In both years, differences in growth rate were strongly linked to oceanographic conditions. Moderate winds during a ‘neutral’ El Niño-Southern Oscillation year resulted in upwelling conditions favoring faster overall growth in larvae which was associated with stronger recruitment. In contrast, slower growth and weaker recruitment were associated with weak upwelling conditions in the 2011-2012 La Niña year. While temperature may be important, larval growth rates appear to be driven more by prey abundance.

УСЛОВИЯ ВОЗНИКНОВЕНИЯ СИЛЬНЫХ ШКВАЛОВ И СМЕРЧЕЙ, ВЫЗЫВАЮЩИХ КРУПНЫЕ ВЕТРОВАЛЫ В ЛЕСНОЙ ЗОНЕ ЕВРОПЕЙСКОЙ ЧАСТИ РОССИИ И УРАЛА

The environments of 53 severe squalls and tornadoes that caused large-scale windthrows in the forest zone of European Russia and the Ural in 1989–2019 are analyzed. The CFSR and ERA-5 reanalyses and sounding data were used to estimate characteristics of the environments including convective instability indices. It was found that the substantial temperature gradient on the atmospheric front (9.6C/500 km on average) and the jet stream presence in the lower or middle troposphere oriented along the frontal zone are important factors to estimate environments of the formation of severe squalls and tornadoes. In most cases, squalls and tornadoes require a combination of high precipitable water content (40 mm on average), moderate or high convective instability (CAPE >1000 J/kg), and moderate or strong wind shear. High precipitable water content and strong convective instability are important for the formation of squalls, while low-level wind shear plays a principal role for the tornado generation.