Models Of Social Systems Research Articles

The methods of scenario designing for the development of regional systems of vocational education and training

Introduction.Despite the increasing importance of the vocational education and training systems in the developed countries, with rare exceptions, there are no strategic management tools adequate to the present context. The system of vocational education and training (VET), being a complex and multidimensional object, requires adequate approaches to manage its development. The present article demonstrates one of these approaches based on forecasting possible system states in the long term, identifying and comparing alternative development scenarios. The requirements for describing scenarios for the development of regional vocational education and training system, including the possible structure of the description and parameters of the scenarios, are presented and justified. The advantages of an approach to forecasting, based on a comprehensive qualitative description of possible states of the regional ecosystem of VET, are shown.The aimof the present article was to demonstrate a scientific approach to long-term forecasting of the development of vocational education and training.Methodology and research methods. The current research is based on the methodology of system analysis of social objects, using the methods of comparative analysis and modeling of social systems, scenario planning and expert methods.Results and scientific novelty.As a result of the research, a methodology for the scientific description of scenarios for the development of vocational education and training, under the influence of a set of probable factors, was developed. The novelty of the results lies in the possibility of constructing a number of alternative scenarios using relatively stable model modules.Practical significance.The research results can be applied in the process of strategic planning for the development of vocational education and training in the regions of the Russian Federation, as well as for the regional vocational education and training systems of other countries.

Разработка математических моделей для информационной системы принятия решений в процессе управления активами

A long-term priority in the field of social policy in the direction of ensuring social guarantees and increasing the personal responsibility of citizens of the country is a strategy for the development of the state. Having a conscious management trajectory, a person can plan personal finances at a young age without resorting to the help of a credit institution. To ensure the content of decision-making information systems in the field of asset management of individuals, it is required to develop mathematical models of complex functional social systems. This paper examines mathematical models of asset management throughout the life cycle of a family. A mathematical model of the process of achieving several financial goals distributed over time throughout the life cycle of a family has been built. A model for managing the processes of accumulating wealth in order to fulfill its obligations by controlling regular contributions is described. It is shown that when each generation of a family has targeted funds, the risk of default in conditions of volatility in the external environment decreases.

Medidas de enfrentamento à pandemia da COVID-19 e influência dos sistemas de Saúde: uma análise comparativa entre Brasil, Itália e EUA

The COVID-19 pandemic required a great mobilization of the world's health systems, mainly due to the high rate of transmissibility of the disease and the state of uncertainty of the global one. Therefore, this study aimed to compare the structure of the Brazil, Italy, and the United States of America (USA), the measures taken to fight the pandemic, and the results obtained between the period of December/2019 and August/2020 in each country. This is a qualitative study, which used an Evaluation Matrix, with the information organized into Structure, Process, and Result, according to Donabedian's triad. Country characteristics such as the Human Development Index (HDI); demographic density; models of health and social protection systems; OxCGRT algorithm; and disease-related indicators; among others were compared. It was noted that the health systems of the study countries needed to be applied and reorganized to deal with the pandemic. The HDI of the countries did not demonstrate any relationship with the spread of the disease, but they may interfere in the way in which the countries organized themselves to face the problem. Countries that adopted more severe and nationally coordinated measures had better results in combating COVID-19, achieving control over the number of cases in a shorter time span. Screening tests, when present, proved to be cornerstones in governments' decisions in the face of the pandemic. The results found in this study can provide support for other comparisons, using the same methodology, which clarifies the different realities and elucidates which governmental measures were more effective in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Feasibility of Implementing a Secure C2C Credit Scoring Platform

The continuous development of social media and online commerce, which permeates all aspects of our lives, leads to the need for a similar mechanism similar to the financial credit score in traditional business. Also, a realistic classification of users through social media to be used in all aspects of the relation-ships between users and some of them or between them and organizations is needed. In this article a new metrics to classify users according to their creditworthiness of the transactions that take place through the Internet is established. The object from this aricle design a social credit system model (SCSM) based on these new metrics. How to deal on the Internet, attacking people on social media, violating the privacy of people and others. Also Buying and selling operations, executing purchase and sale orders, paying amounts of money easily and quickly, and so on. These data and their degree of importance were determined according to several questionnaires directed to several segments of society. This creditworthiness can be used in banks, Uber, Online transactions and so on.

Information and communication technologies (ICT)-enabled severe moral communities and how the (Covid19) pandemic might bring new ones

In this study we present an autopoietic social systems model based on Collectively Prevalent Interpretants (CPIs). We adapt this model to represent and exemplify how Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) may enable the emergence of severe moral communities. In particular, we argue that ICTs may help severe moral communities promote increasingly polarized, radicalized and even extremist viewpoints. We also discuss our propositions in the context of the current pandemic (caused by Covid19) and warn about the possible emergence of new and related severe moral communities. In an effort to help understand and manage the enabling role of ICTs, the study also presents recommendations for theory and practice, which may prove useful in advancing digital resiliency (by empowering individuals and communities to recognize when this may be occurring).

A costing model for the South African social assistance system

ABSTRACT An effective social assistance system needs to be sustainable and affordable and needs to provide good coverage and adequate benefits. The authors’ model to forecast the cost of the South African social assistance system to 2040 provides insights into key cost drivers. This allows policy-makers to explore the effects of policy levers like benefit levels and coverage. Using assumptions derived from analysis of past experience, the model projects that the cost of grants as a percentage of GDP is expected to remain stable. However, this result is very sensitive to GDP forecasts, coverage, grant increases and changes to the retirement age. The following factors are less significant: changes to age-eligibility requirements for child benefits, proportions of benefits paid, expense inflation and population model.

Pattern formations driven by cyclic interactions: A brief review of recent developments

Lotka's seminal work (Lotka A. J., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 6 (1920) 410) “on certain rhythmic relations” is already one hundred years old, but the research activity about pattern formations due to cyclical dominance is more vibrant than ever. It is because non-transitive interactions have a paramount role on maintaining biodiversity and adequate human intervention into ecological systems requires a deeper understanding of the related dynamical processes. In this Perspective we overview different aspects of biodiversity, with focus on how it can be maintained based on mathematical modeling of the last years. We also briefly discuss the potential links to evolutionary game models of social systems, and finally, give an overview about potential prospects for future research.

The International Society for the Systems Sciences: Contributions to the Future World

The International Society for the System Sciences (ISSS) is a microcosm model of the global human social system (HSS, our species). The unprecedented crisis presented by the COVID-19 pandemic is causing major disruptions to the ‘normal’ processes and has triggered a spasm of self-reflection and self-realization that what had been thought of as “the normal” was not sustainable, both for the larger HSS and for the ISSS. Both the greater HSS and the ISSS have had their capacity for resilience in the face of the crisis challenged. Under the proposition that complex adaptive systems are resilient, and evolvable systems are sustainable, members of the ISSS have set out to use our knowledge of systems theory and practice to renew the society, to make it more systemic in structure and function. We are proposing to create a new core working group that will find purpose in doing a dual level deep systems analysis of the ISSS itself and then, using the insights gained in that process, turn to doing the same for the HSS. Deep systems analysis can expose the dysfunctions in subsystems as well as identify missing subsystems and requisite communications. All societies share certain systemic properties since all involve the interactions among groups of human actors. And all long-term sustainable systems have been shown to operate in specific fashions to be self-sustaining (autopoietic) and produce products or services to the larger embedding supra-system. For the HSS this is the Earth as a whole. For the ISSS this is the HSS. Key questions that the ISSS needs to consider as context for its place in the HSS: What product(s)/service(s) should the HSS produce that would benefit the rest of our planet? How should the HSS be structured/organized? The turning that question on the ISSS, what products/services should the ISSS produce that would benefit the HSS. Since the knowledge that is represented within the ISSS pool of expertise is system knowledge, if follows that how the HSS should be structured/organized after the pandemic crisis is in the rearview mirror could be answered by deep systems analysis of what the HSS should be in the future. Key questions to be addressed in this report: With all humbleness how should the ISSS and system societies in general come together to effectively meet the purpose of system science? Indeed, should they and to what purpose? What product(s)/service(s) would the enterprise of system science produce that would benefit the HSS and broader, life on this planet? We report on the plan and the effort undertaken to find answers to these and related questions. This is part of our mission to bring greater unity to the field of systems science and reach out to the wider field of systems thinkers; it is an invitation to participate.

IMPLEMENTASI DAKWAH RASULULLAH DALAM ERA MILENIUM

Humans as subjects and objects of law cannot live and carry out lawsuits. But instead humans are bound by a rule that applies in the midst of their lives as citizens in their environment. For this reason, awareness is needed in understanding and obeying the rules that apply. But social and cultural changes that occur continuously sometimes bring hope as well as concern. Hope, because change will bring better conditions, and fears will come if the future is worse than the present. The development of science and technology that should have raised hopes and reduced concerns is now also marked by the confrontation of scientists and scholars, namely the separation between the world and the hereafter, making it difficult to control human attitudes as the excesses of the emptiness of the soul.To help the general public, it requires the ability to wage jihad in the field of da'wah. The insistent pressure in the Prophet's preaching in Mecca, then inspired the Prophet to emigrate and temporarily exit from Mecca to Medina. The original name of the city was Yastrib. This Prophet's strategy turned out to be very telling and presents a golden journey in the history of da'wah and the formation of society.With all the intelligence and attitudes of the Prophet Muhammad, when in Medina not only can spread in the sense of tabli, but more than that the Prophet Together the community can build a model of a modern social system even too modern in its time. To help the general public, it requires the ability to wage jihad in the field of da'wah. The insistent pressure in the Prophet's preaching in Mecca, then inspired the Prophet to emigrate and temporarily exit from Mecca to Medina. The original name of the city was Yastrib. This Prophet's strategy turned out to be very telling and presents a golden journey in the history of da'wah and the formation of society. With all the intelligence and attitudes of the Prophet Muhammad, when in Medina not only can spread in the sense of tabli, but more than that the Prophet Together the community can build a model of a modern social system even too modern in its time.

Modeling of variable development indicators social protection systems

Modeling of variable development indicators social protection systems

Multiobjective Genetic Programming Can Improve the Explanatory Capabilities of Mechanism-Based Models of Social Systems.

The generative approach to social science, in which agent-based simulations (or other complex systems models) are executed to reproduce a known social phenomenon, is an important tool for realist explanation. However, a generative model, when suitably calibrated and validated using empirical data, represents just one viable candidate set of entities and mechanisms. The model only partially addresses the needs of an abductive reasoning process - specifically it does not provide insight into other viable sets of entities or mechanisms, nor suggest which of these are fundamentally constitutive for the phenomenon to exist. In this paper, we propose a new model discovery framework that more fully captures the needs of realist explanation. The framework exploits the implicit ontology of an existing human-built generative model to propose and test a plurality of new candidate model structures. Genetic programming is used to automate this search process. A multi-objective approach is used, which enables multiple perspectives on the value of any particular generative model - such as goodness-of-fit, parsimony, and interpretability - to be represented simultaneously. We demonstrate this new framework using a complex systems modeling case study of change and stasis in societal alcohol use patterns in the US over the period 1980-2010. The framework is successful in identifying three competing explanations of these alcohol use patterns, using novel integrations of social role theory not previously considered by the human modeler. Practitioners in complex systems modeling should use model discovery to improve the explanatory utility of the generative approach to realist social science.

Cell-DEVS for Social Phenomena Modeling

Motivated by the need for formal methods as well as supporting tools to model and simulate social systems, we propose cellular discrete-event system specification as a formalism for modeling social systems. We also propose the use of a toolkit that implements the formalism of cellular discrete-event system specifications to implement and visualize models of social systems. We present examples of social system models that are different in sizes, nature, and rules controlling the interactions within those systems. We show that cellular discrete-event system specification with its unique features can successfully deal with the shortcoming of other modeling techniques. In addition, we show that together with its supporting toolkit, cellular discrete-event system specification is suitable for modeling, simulating, implementing, and visualizing social systems.

Toward a Framework for Resilience Assessments: Working Across Cultures, Disciplines, and Scales in Aotearoa/New Zealand

Resilience appears within diverse literatures across the physical and social sciences, pervades social and ecological systems models and has been mobilised in the quest to change environmental practices at local and international levels. Yet common language is needed to enable cross-disciplinary conversations. We discuss a novel interdisciplinary process identifying shared terminology and developing a framework to facilitate the integration of physical and social science understandings of urban infrastructure and resilience in urban systems. Drawing on bicultural knowledge traditions unique to Aotearoa/New Zealand, we reflect on resilience as a system property having ecological, social, economic and technical dimensions that influence wellbeing and sustainability outcomes. .

How to Make the Perfect Citizen? Lessons from China's Model of Social Credit System

The COVID19 crisis has triggered a new wave of digitalization of the lives of citizens. To counter the devastating effects of the virus, states and corporations are experimenting with systems that trace citizens as an integral part of public life. In China, a comprehensive sociotechnical system of citizenship governance has already in force with the implementation of the Social Credit System—a technology-driven project that aims to assess, evaluate, and steer the behavior of Chinese citizens. After presenting social credit systems in China’s public and private sectors (Part I), the article provides normative standards to distinguish the Chinese system from comparable Western systems (Part II). It then shows the manner in which civic virtue is instrumentalized in China, both in content (“what” it is) and in form (“how” to cultivate it) (Part III), and claims that social credit systems represent a new form of citizenship governance, “cybernetic citizenship,” which implements different conceptions of state power, civic virtue, and human rights (Part V). On the whole, the article demonstrates how the Chinese Social Credit System redefines the institution of citizenship and warns against similar patterns that are mushrooming in the West. The article makes three contributions: empirically, it presents China’s Social Credit Systems and reveals their data sources, criteria used, rating methods, and attached sanctions and rewards. Comparatively, it shows that, paradoxically, China’s Social Credit System is not fundamentally different than credit systems in Western societies, yet indicates four points of divergence: scope, authority, regulation, and regime. Normatively, it claims that China’s Social Credit System creates a form of cybernetic citizenship governance, which redefines the essence of citizenship.

STRATEGI KOMUNIKASI PELAYANAN PUBLIK MELALUI E-GOVERNMENT DI PUSAT PENGELOLAAN PENGADUAN MASYARAKAT (P3M) KOTA SEMARANG

<p><em>Public services is a service that provided by the government to the community. In general, the public services deliver the benefit to the people in a particular society or community. Semarang city government contribute the public services in the form of management of public complaints responsible by Community Complaints Management Center (P3M) as a part of Diskominfo. P3M is optimize the various media channels or e-Government such as Instagram, Twitter, WhatsApp, Telegram, Web and SMS. Meanwhile, to advance the media channel to maximize the communication, people tend to use WhatsApp to convey the complaint. According to data on the Diskominfo Semarang city there are 515 complaints which status has not been in the process of the total complaint 2558 in January to August 2019. The aims of this study is to determine the public services communication strategy by e-Government. This research is used a paradigm of constructivism, qualitative research methods with a case study approach. This study uses social systems theory and political system models. The results of the study showed that there was an attachment between the political system in P3M, namely </em><em>“Lapor Hendi” System and the social system theory. Lapor Hendi is a non-bulkhead service that is a public service communication strategy between the government and the community. Communities in the Semarang City area are free to give complaints, suggestions and criticisms to the government directly. The stages of e-Government communication strategies begin with fact finding, namely the filtering of complaints that are followed up. Second, planning based on the legal basis, namely mayor regulations, work plan planning and strategic plans. Third, action and communication e-Government, namely the optimization of media channels by S4PN and the report system system. Finally, the evaluation shows that there are many complaints from the public through media channels or e-Government and become the material for the next City Government policy strategy</em><em></em></p>

Actual Problems of Modeling Social Systems in the Digital Economy

In the scientific and production sphere, components of robotics and sensors, wireless communication technologies, virtual and augmented reality technologies, quantum technologies, neurotechnologies and artificial intelligence, distributed registry systems, new production technologies, industrial Internet are being introduced. Russia has created an infrastructure of science and innovation represented by various development institutions, business incubators, technology parks, which is planned to be used for the development of the digital economy. In the context of globalization, digital technologies are able to perform an important function of the social integration of mankind into a single metasystem, which is possible only with a certain degree of openness of social systems in relation to each other. Being artificially isolated from the external environment, the social system behaves according to the laws of physical systems in thermodynamics: the dissipation (dispersion) of energy is accompanied by an increase in entropy (disorder) in the system. The absence of feedbacks within the system and in relation to the external environment deprives the source of additional energy, leads to the wear, simplification, disorganization of the system. The article analyzes the factors affecting functioning of social systems, features and prospects of their development in the conditions of the digital economy. The author considers some parameters characterizing society as a social system.

Multiscale online media simulation with SocialCube

This paper describes the design, implementation, and early experiences with a novel agent-based simulator of online media streams, developed under DARPA’s SocialSim Program to extract and predict trends in information dissemination on online media. A hallmark of the simulator is its self-configuring property. Instead of requiring initial set-up, the input to the simulator constitutes data traces collected from the medium to be simulated. The simulator automatically learns from the data such elements as the number of agents involved, the number of objects involved, and the rate of introduction of new agents and objects. It also develops behavior models of simulated agents and objects, and their dependencies. These models are then used to run simulations allowing future extrapolation and “what if” analysis. An interesting property of the simulator is its multi-level abstraction capability that allows modeling social systems at various degrees of abstraction by lumping similar agents into larger categories. Preliminary experiences are discussed with using this system to simulate multiple social media platforms, including Twitter, Reddit, and Github.

A conceptual framework for the modelling and simulation of social systems

This paper presents a conceptual framework for the modelling and simulation of properties, interactions and processes of social systems based on computational templates using discrete event system specification (DEVS) formalism and OMG Systems Modelling Language (SysML) diagrams. No antecedents of this combination were found in the literature, and so this is one of the contributions of this paper. Additionally, this article explains how the principles and rules of SysML can be applied to the analysis of social systems. An example of the proposed framework based on a basic Agent_Zero model is shown. The conceptual framework was built based on a critical literature review, and included new additional elements to create a complete but simple conceptual framework. The codes for the simulations were written in Python 3.

Principles for Development of Predictive Stability Models of Social and Economic Systems on the basis of DTW

This paper presents the concept for the development of predictive models of social and economic system evolution providing the necessity of combining solution search optimization algorithms and methods of regressive and clustering analysis for the adequate description of system attribute space. The rationale for the selection of metrics on the basis of a dynamic time-warping algorithm which allows to carry out clustering of the system attribute space. The example of solution of description task for COVID-19 pandemic development attribute for a particular country or region is considered. The developed concept formulates main provisions and indicators that can be used in order to increase the algorithm efficiency for the development of predictive complicated system models.

Financing Problems as a Pretext for a Change in the Spanish Social Security System Model: The Role of Financial Institutions and Their Media

This study summarizes the traditional characteristics of the Spanish Social Security System (generally taken from the European model), the different legal reforms that have come into force in recent years and the degree of penetration of important financial groups in the mass media which increased with the last financial crisis as well as the role developed by the insurance and financial entities benefiting from the change of model. The conclusion is that we are at the beginning of an interesting change in the Social Security model, aimed at the capitalization of social contributions by the private sector, which will obtain significant economic benefits in the management of old-age risk.