Mid-term Future Research Articles

Standards for Treatment and Control Regimens in Therapeutic Trials for Gonorrhea: Lessons From a “Failed” Trial

Standards for Treatment and Control Regimens in Therapeutic Trials for Gonorrhea: Lessons From a “Failed” Trial

No Pain, No Gain? In Defence of Genetically Disenhancing (Most) Research Animals.

Simple SummaryMillions of animals are used for scientific purposes in the EU every year. The procedures they undergo often cause significant pain, suffering and distress. New gene editing technologies now potentially offer a new and feasible way to genetically modify research animals in order to reduce or eliminate their ability to feel pain and to suffer. In this paper, we discuss the ethical concerns this new technology and new possibility raise and evaluate the implications of such genetic modifications with regards to the legal regulations in animal research in Europe.Every year, around 12 million animals are used for the purpose of scientific research in the European Union alone. The procedures performed on them often cause significant pain and suffering. Despite regulations aimed at reducing this suffering, we can expect millions of research animals to continue to suffer in the near to mid-term future. Given this reality, we propose the use of gene editing to create research animals with a reduced capacity for suffering, in particular, from pain. We argue that our proposal would be in line with moral principles embedded in European regulations regarding animal research, and that it would facilitate compliance with these regulations. We also respond to the strongest argument against our proposal—the ‘no pain no gain’ argument.

Pathways to a fully sustainable electricity supply for Nigeria in the mid-term future

Ambitious actions focused on rapid defossilisation of today’s energy systems require greater urgency, in order to avert unmanageable impacts of climate change. Transitioning to a cost-effective and carbon-neutral energy system in Nigeria and across the globe by the second half of this century is vital. This study explores a paradigmatic pathway to a fully sustainable energy system for Nigeria, by 2050. The research approach is to simulate a cost-optimised transition pathway towards 100% renewable energy based power system for Nigeria, using a linear optimisation model. The model is based on hourly resolution for an entire year. The country researched is structured into 6 sub-regions. The optimisation for each of the 5-year time periods is carried out based on assumed costs and technological status until 2050 for all energy technologies involved. The levelised cost of electricity declines from 54 €/MWh in 2015 to 46 €/MWh in 2050 for the power sector in the Best Policy Scenario and further declines to 35 €/MWh with sector coupling. Whereas, the cost of electricity increased to 75 €/MWh in the Current Policy Scenario without greenhouse gas emission cost. The results clearly reveal that integrating a renewable energy technology mix with a wide variety of storage technologies is the most competitive and least cost electricity option for Nigeria in the mid-term future, as indicated by the Best Policy Scenario. In particular, the compatibility and predominant role of solar photovoltaics and batteries is paramount towards a rapid transition of Nigeria’s power sector, due to highly favourable economics. This study concludes with the implications of a stable and supportive policy environment, transitioning to a defossiliated energy system in Nigeria could be achieved in the mid-term future. This study is the first of its kind in full hourly resolution for Nigeria, and demonstrates the need for carrying out detailed analyses in examining gaps in energy transition understanding based on various policy constraints for developing countries in comparable climates.

Online Management Education Present and Future: Assessing the Educator-Learner Gap

This applied research studies the gap identified in the perceptions of educators and learners regarding the present and future of management education, contrasting online with traditional offerings. A first study assesses their perceptions along 15 dimensions of education typically associated with quality outcomes. Amongst individuals with first-hand experience with present day MOOCs: learners (student and industry respondents) find their experience with online education equally good or superior to traditional education along most dimensions, while educators (academic respondents) find traditional education to be superior across all of the same dimensions. Looking towards the mid-term future of management education, a second study unveils a similar paradoxical pattern, whereby learners expect significantly more online offerings at all levels of management education, than educators do. A closer analysis unveils important gender and location explanations for the educator-learner gap identified, which modern online education offerings are exploiting –and traditional business school offerings are seemingly missing out on.

Climatic drivers of genotype–environment interactions in lodgepole pine based on multi-environment trial data and a factor analytic model of additive covariance

The optimum deployment of select material from tree breeding programs is affected by the presence of genotype–environment interactions (G × E) and further complicated by future climate change. Here, we analyzed tree height data from 28 progeny test sites in a multi-environment trial (MET) dataset for two testing cycles of the lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Douglas ex Loudon) breeding program in British Columbia to characterize one approach to investigating the climatic variables influencing G × E and the potential impacts of climate change. Linear mixed model analysis was conducted using an approximate reduced animal model with a factor analytic (FA) variance model to estimate the complex additive (co)variance structure. Test sites were grouped according to patterns of G × E, and climate modelling was employed to project historical and future deployment zones for each group. Based on these findings, it appears that breeding groups with historically wide deployment zones from northern environments will become less important as the climate warms, and therefore investment should be directed toward southern breeding groups, which will be useful across a very wide geographic range in the near to mid-term future.

Seasonality matters—The effects of past and projected seasonal climate change on the growth of native and exotic conifer species in Central Europe

Norway spruce is one of the economically most important tree species in Central European forestry. However, its high susceptibility to droughts poses a strong challenge to its cultivation under future conditions with likely more frequent and prolonged droughts and shifts in the seasonal climate. To compensate for expected losses of forest areas suitable for the cultivation of spruce, more drought-tolerant species are required. Silver fir and Douglas fir are two potential candidates, which promise lower drought susceptibility and equal or even higher yield when compared to Norway spruce.Using the Black Forest as a regional case study, we assessed the effects of seasonal climate change, including drought stress, on tree-ring width formation of these three economically relevant conifer species over the last 60 years. In addition, we projected potential species-specific growth changes under different climate change scenarios until 2100.Our results suggest that both silver fir and Douglas fir will possibly experience growth increases in a warmer future climate, as predicted under the 4.5 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenarios, whereas growth of spruce is expected to decline. Moreover, drought susceptibility in silver fir and Douglas fir is lower than in spruce, as shown for past drought events, and their ability to benefit from milder winters and springs could play a major role in their capacity to compensate for drier summers in the near to mid-term future. This study highlights the need to advance our understanding of the processes that drive drought resistance and resilience in tree species to guide management strategies in the face of climate change.

Evaluation of Core-Continuity-Constrained ROADMs for Flex-Grid/MCF Optical Networks

To effectively keep pace with the global IP traffic growth forecasted in the years to come, flex-grid over multi-core fiber (MCF) networks can bring superior spectrum utilization flexibility, as well as bandwidth scalability far beyond the non-linear Shannon's limit. In such a network scenario, however, full node switching re-configurability will require enormous node complexity, pushing the limits of current optical device technologies with prohibitive capital expenditures. Therefore, cost-effective node solutions will most probably be the key enablers of flex-grid/MCF networks, at least in the short- and mid-term future. In this context, this paper proposes a cost-effective reconfigurable optical add/drop multiplexer (ROADM) architecture for flex-grid/MCF networks, called CCC-ROADM, which reduces technological requirements (and associated costs) in exchange for demanding core continuity along the end-to-end communication. To assess the performance of the proposed CCC-ROADM in comparison with a fully flexible ROADM (i.e., a fully non-blocking ROADM, called FNB-ROADM in this work) in large-scale network scenarios, a novel lightweight heuristic to solve the route, modulation, core, and spectrum assignment problem in flex-grid/MCF networks is presented in this work, whose goodness is successfully validated against optimal ILP formulations previously proposed for the same goal. The obtained numerical results in a significant number of representative network topologies with different MCF configurations of 7, 12, and 19 cores show almost identical network performance in terms of maximum network throughput when deploying CCC-ROADMs versus FNB-ROADMs, while decreasing network capital expenditures to a large extent.

Confronting the Emerging Threat to Public Health in Northern Australia of Neglected Indigenous Arboviruses.

In excess of 75 arboviruses have been identified in Australia, some of which are now well established as causative agents of debilitating diseases. These include Ross River virus, Barmah Forest virus, and Murray Valley encephalitis virus, each of which may be detected by both antibody-based recognition and molecular typing. However, for most of the remaining arboviruses that may be associated with pathology in humans, routine tests are not available to diagnose infection. A number of these so-called ‘neglected’ or ‘orphan’ arboviruses that are indigenous to Australia might have been infecting humans at a regular rate for decades. Some of them may be associated with undifferentiated febrile illness—fever, the cause of which is not obvious—for which around half of all cases each year remain undiagnosed. This is of particular relevance to Northern Australia, given the Commonwealth Government’s transformative vision for the midterm future of massive infrastructure investment in this region. An expansion of the industrial and business development of this previously underpopulated region is predicted. This is set to bring into intimate proximity infection-naïve human hosts, native reservoir animals, and vector mosquitoes, thereby creating a perfect storm for increased prevalence of infection with neglected Australian arboviruses. Moreover, the escalating rate and effects of climate change that are increasingly observed in the tropical north of the country are likely to lead to elevated numbers of arbovirus-transmitting mosquitoes. As a commensurate response, continuing assiduous attention to vector monitoring and control is required. In this overall context, improved epidemiological surveillance and diagnostic screening, including establishing novel, rapid pan-viral tests to facilitate early diagnosis and appropriate treatment of febrile primary care patients, should be considered a public health priority. Investment in a rigorous identification program would reduce the possibility of significant outbreaks of these indigenous arboviruses at a time when population growth accelerates in Northern Australia.

Causal attributions of vineyard executives – A mental model study of vineyard management☆

This article contributes a reference of causal attributions made by vineyard executives in Chile, where increasing costs and stagnating prices challenge the vineyards’ profits. The investigation was motivated by the question how executives interpret the industry's mid term future and how they reflect on steering their companies. Based on in-depth interviews, causal maps were elaborated to represent the executives’ mental models. These are represented as sequences of attributions, connecting variables by causal links. It was found that some mental models guide policies bound to increase the prices, whereas other models suggest taking the prices as givens and control costs. The collection of causal attributions of the vineyard executives (CAVE) has been made publicly available. As a result, CAVE can be used by other management scholars to elicit other executives’ mental models and increase the data base available. Since such research will be cumulative, a minimum size for meaningful statistical analysis can be reached, opening up an avenue for improving the design of business policies. CAVE can also serve executives and consultants in constructing causal argumentations and business policies. Future research and development of supporting software are called for.

A multi-objective model for cleaner production-transportation planning in manufacturing plants via fuzzy goal programming

In traditional supply chain management, manufacturers aim solely to reach a cost-effective way to meet customers’ demands. Nowadays, increased social awareness together with new governmental regulations are forcing manufacturers to reconsider their production and transportation plans with respect to environmental issues. This paper proposes a multi-objective optimization model for a cleaner production-transportation planning (CPTP) problem in manufacturing plants. When a manufacturer is planning for production-transportation of mid-term future, the aim is to determine optimal production level, inventory level, back order level, workforce level, transportation mode, overtime, and subcontracted products, while attempting to minimize production and transportation costs as well as environmental effects (e.g. generated wastes, gas emissions, noise disturbance, workers injuries, and energy consumption). To handle the original optimization problem, fuzzy goal programming is adopted and heuristic algorithms are designed. Moreover, extensive computational experiments as well as real case studies are considered to evaluate the quality of algorithms and applicability of the proposed model.

High‐Throughput Natural Products Discovery in Fungi Using FAC‐MS Technology

Ascomycete fungal genomes typically each contain >50 different secondary metabolite biosynthetic gene clusters (BGCs). With an estimated pool of >500,000 ascomycete fungal species on earth, the corresponding chemical potential that could be harnessed for human technological challenges such as disease and agriculture is truly massive. However, the vast majority of fungal-encoded chemical space is uncharted and difficult to access due to difficulties culturing and genetically manipulating most fungi. We report a high-throughput heterologous expression and metabolomic profiling technology using untargeted liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) with ultrahigh mass accuracy to systematically identify the secondary metabolite (SM) products of heterologously expressed fungal BGCs. This platform uses fungal artificial chromosomes (FACs) to capture full-length BGCs derived from unbiased large-insert libraries of genomic DNA of Aspergillus terreus, A. aculeatus, and A. wenti (Fig. A). Host A. nidulans strains transformed with FACs (Fig. B) are then screened by LC-MS (Fig. C), and FAC-encoded products are identified by a robust scoring system to identify spectral features most likely associated with each FAC (Fig. D). Deletions of specific backbone and tailoring genes within FACs (achieved through facile E. coli genetics) then empirically validate assignment of metabolites to BGCs and facilitate analyses of biosynthesis (Fig. E). We use this “FAC-MS” platform to screen 56 FACs and report detection of 15 completely novel secondary metabolites from 56 FACs, a ~27% “hit rate”, including an A. terreus FAC encoding three distinct metabolites identified as a novel macrolactone, a sesterterpenoid, and the orphan benzodiazepine benzomalvin A, which is 300-fold overexpressed by the FAC-strain. Deletants of benzomalvin A backbone and tailoring genes allow us to propose and test the first biosynthetic model for this molecule, as well as demonstrate the readiness with which such studies can be carried out using the FAC-MS technology. Wide application of the FAC-MS pipeline should have a major impact on fungal natural products research in the mid-term future by greatly increasing the scale and rate at which fungal secondary metabolites can be systematically unearthed and introduced into pharmaceutical and agricultural screening campaigns. Support or Funding InformationThis work was supported in part by an SBIR award from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health under grant R44AI094885 to C.C.W. at Intact Genomics, Inc. and to J.W.B and N.L.K. N.L.K. also acknowledges AT009143 for partial support of this work. A) Fungal artificial chromosomes (FACs) capture full-length biosynthetic gene clusters (BGCs) derived from unbiased large-insert libraries of genomic DNA of Aspergillus terreus, A. aculeatus, and A. wenti. B and C) Host A. nidulans strains transformed with FACs are then screened by LC-MS. D) FAC-encoded products are identified by a robust scoring system. E) Deletions of backbone genes in FACs empirically validate assignment of metabolites to BGCs and dissect biosyntheses.

Turkey's shale gas potential and comparison of its success factors with the US and European developments

Recent shale gas developments has been transforming the USA with repercussions on world economy in general; as well as having a great impact on the formation of short and mid-term global energy future. It is even dubbed as the unexpected energy revolution of the 21st century. The fact that the USA has so far had an outstanding success in shale gas development deserves close attention and therefore, the study of how the same fact could be applicable and replicable in other shale resourceful countries and to what extent the factors leading to this success are utilisable in other countries is very relevant. In this respect, Europe and Turkey are also known to have some considerable shale resources. Due to high dependence on gas imports, the issue gains even more significance for Turkey. In light of the above considerations, such a comparison between the USA and Europe-Turkey, with regards to shale gas developments, might be interesting and necessary. In this paper, it is aimed to analyse the US shale revolution and more importantly to make a comparison between the US and European implementations so far and especially Turkish potential and prospects in that regard.

Well-to-wheels energy consumption and emissions of electric vehicles: Mid-term implications from real-world features and air pollution control progress

Previous well-to-wheels (WTW) analyses on electric vehicles (EVs) have reported tremendous results of potential energy and environmental effects. However, there remains a challenge to lower the uncertainties that were introduced when obtaining life-cycle parameters from a macro perspective (e.g., nationwide or regional scales). This study takes Beijing as a case, because it is an important regional hub for EV promotion and represents megacities with severe urban air pollution issues and congested traffic conditions. We collected up-to-date data concerning the electricity generation mix, fuel transport, end-of-pipe controls, real-world fuel economy and emissions, and estimated the WTW energy consumption and CO2 and air pollutant emissions for various light-duty passenger vehicle technologies currently (2015) and in the mid-term future (2030). Unlike previous results, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are shown to significantly reduce WTW CO2 emissions by 32% for the present model year (MY) 2015 compared with their conventional gasoline counterparts, primarily due to the shift from coal to gas in local power plants in Beijing and the significantly higher real-world fuel consumption of conventional vehicles compared with the type-approval value. By 2030, WTW CO2 emissions by BEVs should approach 100gkm−1 due to the increased importation of non-fossil electricity, even lower than that of hybrid electric vehicles. Furthermore, significant improvements in end-of-pipe controls for coal-fired power plants have effectively lowered WTW emissions of air pollutants. In terms of VOCs and NOX that are of most concerns among all pollutants emitted from passenger vehicles, the WTW emissions of VOCs for MY 2015 BEV are already significantly lower than their conventional counterparts by 95%. Although WTW NOX emissions for BEVs are currently higher by 66% than conventional gasoline vehicles, we expect that BEVs can achieve WTW emission reduction benefit of NOX (41%) by 2030. This study indicates the significance of fine-grained and real-world features when assessing the WTW energy and environmental effects of EVs.

Stereoscopic Video Transmission Over DVB-T2 System Using Future Extension Frame

This paper proposes a complete framework for end-to-end transmission of stereo video for regular services using a digital video broadcasting-terrestrial version 2 (DVB-T2) system. The proposed system incorporates existing services (such as fixed and mobile) to deliver stereoscopic 3-D content in order to maintain backward compatibility without requiring any additional bandwidth. The system is based on a single stream using the future extension frame part of the T2 frame in the DVB-T2 system, which provides the flexibility to carry both (T2-base and T2-lite) profiles of DVB-T2 on a single stream. T2-base and T2-lite are used for left- and right-eye views of stereoscopic video. Finally, a service scenario for the proposed system considering target receivers and the required data rate is analyzed. A case study is given to represent practical applications of the proposed system in scenarios that could be deployed at different times in the mid-term future in high-definition environment.

Educational Action Research to Achieve the Essential Competencies of the Future

Abstract This article analyses the conformity of the educational action research (EAR) process for the improvement of selected competencies that will be necessary in the near future for each active and responsible person. The most requested competencies in the near and midterm future are determined in accordance with near future structural requirements of labour demand, determined by international organoizations. The contribution is based upon the outcomes of the action research carried out in the internet environment, by Bachelor students majoring in information technologies at Riga Technical University, Latvia. Working in groups, they supplemented each other’s ideas, developing living theories. The content analysis of the students’ supplementary submissions and living theories was carried out to identify the features indicating the development of student actions towards the improvement of the most necessary competencies in the near future. To accomplish the objective of action research, at first, the most requested competencies in the near and midterm future were determined. Then the changes of the features, mentioned during the three action research cycles were identified. Finally, the most important features of the students’ actions indicating the development of two of key competencies, namely, Novel and adaptive thinking and Design Mindset, were identified. Perfection of referred competencies is viewed as the substantial part of education for sustainable development (ESD). The conclusions were drawn about the development of students’ competencies according to the future needs identified during the action research process on the internet.

Simulated future changes of extreme nutrient loads in a mesoscale agricultural watershed in Bavaria / Simulierte zukünftige Änderungen der Extremwerte für Nährstofffrachten in einem mesoskaligen landwirtschaftlichen Einzugsgebiet in Bayern

Summary The hydrological model SWAT was applied to the upper Altmühl watershed to examine the simulated 10th and 90th percentiles of streamflow, nitrate nitrogen (NO3 --N), and total phosphorus loads (TP), using an ensemble of reference climate (1975–2000) and future climate (2046–2070) simulations. A comparison between the two periods showed that in the future, the 90th percentiles of the NO3 --N loads increase in all seasons which indicates a trend to increasing diffuse pollution in the mid-term future. Conversely, the 90th percentile TP loads diminished in winter and otherwise remained similar to the reference period. The 10th and 90th percentile changes in the future streamflow followed changes in precipitation, and did not have any apparent influence on extreme nutrient transport events.

Frontiers of robotic endoscopic capsules: a review.

Digestive diseases are a major burden for society and healthcare systems, and with an aging population, the importance of their effective management will become critical. Healthcare systems worldwide already struggle to insure quality and affordability of healthcare delivery and this will be a significant challenge in the midterm future. Wireless capsule endoscopy (WCE), introduced in 2000 by Given Imaging Ltd., is an example of disruptive technology and represents an attractive alternative to traditional diagnostic techniques. WCE overcomes conventional endoscopy enabling inspection of the digestive system without discomfort or the need for sedation. Thus, it has the advantage of encouraging patients to undergo gastrointestinal (GI) tract examinations and of facilitating mass screening programmes. With the integration of further capabilities based on microrobotics, e.g. active locomotion and embedded therapeutic modules, WCE could become the key-technology for GI diagnosis and treatment. This review presents a research update on WCE and describes the state-of-the-art of current endoscopic devices with a focus on research-oriented robotic capsule endoscopes enabled by microsystem technologies. The article also presents a visionary perspective on WCE potential for screening, diagnostic and therapeutic endoscopic procedures.

Emerging infectious disease and fast-track publication: when public health gets priority over the formality of scholarly publishing.

It has long been acknowledged within the scientific community that in the mid-term future the Earth will undergo important changes beyond those deduced from the past behaviour of known physical phenomena. For example, climate change due to rising temperatures is expected to influence several systems, like ocean levels, wind current and rain regimes. Global travel, urbanisation, biomedical manipulation and intensive agriculture are additional factors affecting natural systems which together in turn influence the diversity of plant, animals, and microorganisms in general. As a result, zoonoses represent 60,3% of emerging infectious diseases, more than 70% of which are caused by pathogens of wildlife origin (Jones et al. 2008). Whatever the action suffered by these subsystems (increase or reduction in species number), the fact is that currently we are unable to predict the exact outcomes of these changes. This limitation to forecast the future does not prevent us to sketch scenarios for probable events, such as the emergence of unknown and lethal infectious agents. Advances in research of infectious disease and epidemiology have empowered society to respond quickly to this kind of threat, though not so effective as to the point of controlling or completely eliminating a disease. The Ebola epidemics is an example of such an event and its response. Now we have another threat: the Zika virus (ZIKV) and its vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti. The Director-General of the World Health Organization, on 1 February 2016, declared this to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). We can only speculate that the spread of both this virus and vector might be seen as signs of the changes anticipated by climatologists and ecologists. However, one thing is beyond any question or doubt: we have to start new ways to accelerate scientific collaboration, including access to data and exchange of research findings. Recently, the Forum of Scientific Editors of FIOCRUZ decided collectively to give priority to the publication of papers regarding the Zika epidemic in their journals. In the context of this decision and the declaration of the Director-General of the World Health Organization, we, as the editors of the Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz (MIOC), have decided to create a section on the MIOC website called “Zika Fast Track”, where research manuscripts relevant to the Zika epidemic will be posted. We have also decided to follow the example of the Bulletin of WHO (Dye et al. 2016) and make the data in these papers freely available for unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction provided that the original work is properly cited as indicated by the Creative Commons Attribution license (CC BY). All research manuscripts concerning the Zika epidemic, after submission to the Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, will be evaluated by an Editor and those considered relevant will be assigned a digital object identifier and posted online in the “Zika Fast Track” section of the Web-site within 24 hours. At the same time, manuscripts will be evaluated by peer review. Data in these manuscripts will thus be attributed to the authors while being freely available for reader scrutiny and unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction provided that the original work is properly cited as indicated by the Creative Commons Attribution license (CC BY 3.0). In papers accepted by the MIOC following peer review, this period of open data within the Zika Fast Track will be mentioned in the final publication. In case of rejection after peer review, authors are free to seek publication elsewhere. Manuscripts can be submitted via the MIOC website memorias.ioc.fiocruz.br.

Silicon sensor prototypes for the Phase II upgrade of the CMS tracker

The High-Luminosity LHC (HL-LHC) has been identified as the highest priority program in High Energy Physics in the mid-term future. It will provide the experiments an additional integrated luminosity of about 2500fb−1 over 10years of operation, starting in 2025. In order to meet the experimental challenges of unprecedented p–p luminosity, especially in terms of radiation levels and occupancy, the CMS collaboration will need to replace its entire strip tracker by a new one.In this paper the baseline layout option for this new Phase-II tracker is shown, together with two variants using a tilted barrel geometry or larger modules from 8-inch silicon wafers. Moreover, the two module concepts are discussed, which consist either of two strip sensors (2S) or of one strip and one pixel sensor (PS). These two designs allow pT discrimination at module level enabling the tracker to contribute to the L1 trigger decision. The paper presents testing results of the macro-pixel-light sensor for the PS module and shows the first electrical characterization of unirradiated, full-scale strip sensor prototypes for the 2S module concept, both on 6- and 8-inch wafers.

Anthropogenic fluorine accumulation in the Waikato and Bay of Plenty regions of New Zealand: comparison of field data with projections

Application of phosphate (P) fertilizers to farmland is projected to be causing worldwide accumulation of fluorine (F) in agricultural soils and associated ecosystems, but wide-scale field data have been lacking. We report results of sampling across two large regions of New Zealand involving soils of 298 native and farmed properties. This has enabled the first wide-scale retrospective estimates of anthropogenic F enrichment in pastoral and horticultural soils. Results validate earlier projections: F accumulation in farmed soils has been comparatively rapid (mean increase 2.1 % per year) and widespread. Over 50 years, average total F concentrations in surface soils have doubled from ~220 to 440 mg/kg. Thresholds protective against chronic fluorosis in grazing animals are being substantively passed, indicating that land may be rendered unsuitable for pastoral production in the mid-term future: when sampled 44 % of dairy farm soil samples exceeded 500 mg/kg total F, and 10 % exceeded 650 mg/kg. Potential for F toxicity to plants and wildlife appear to be significant and marginal, respectively, at current soil F concentrations. Relationships between F and other elements suggest P fertilizers are also a source of several elements geochemically linked to F, and that anthropogenic F modifies soil aluminium (Al) chemistry, potentially opening a broad-scale Al exposure pathway to pollinating insects. Findings signal a need for systematic examination of the range of possible affects that may be linked to increasing soil F, which include various types of ecotoxicity, altered Al chemistry, reduced P availability, and potential for increased dietary intakes of F, Al and aluminofluoride (AlFx) species over time.