Prognostic Method Research Articles

A federated data fusion-based prognostic model for applications with multi-stream incomplete signals

Most prognostic methods require a decent amount of data for model training. In reality, however, the amount of historical data owned by a single organization might be small or not large enough to train a reliable prognostic model. To address this challenge, this article proposes a federated prognostic model that allows multiple users to jointly construct a failure time prediction model using their multi-stream, high-dimensional, and incomplete data while keeping each user’s data local and confidential. The prognostic model first employs multivariate functional principal component analysis to fuse the multi-stream degradation signals. Then, the fused features coupled with the times-to-failure are utilized to build a (log)-location-scale regression model for failure prediction. To estimate parameters using distributed datasets and keep the data privacy of all participants, we propose a new federated algorithm for feature extraction. Numerical studies indicate that the performance of the proposed model is the same as that of classic non-federated prognostic models and is better than that of the models constructed by each user itself.

Prognostic prediction of ovarian cancer based on hierarchical sampling & fine-grained recognition convolution neural network

Ovarian cancer ranks among the deadliest gynecological malignancies, with high-grade serous adenocarcinoma (HGSA) constituting 75 % of ovarian cancer cases and accounting for 80 %–90 % of ovarian cancer-related fatalities. Accurate prognosis prediction for ovarian HGSA is of critical clinical significance. However, existing prognostic analysis methods exhibit suboptimal performance in identifying prognostically relevant pathological markers, making it challenging, even for experienced pathologists, to forecast the prognosis of ovarian HGSA patients accurately. Deep learning holds promise in enhancing prognostic prediction accuracy. However, a significant challenge in this field arises from the impracticality of directly inputting histopathology whole-slide images with millions to billions of pixels into existing deep learning networks for training and inference. To address this issue, we propose a prognostic analysis network for ovarian cancer based on hierarchical sampling and fine-grained recognition. This network comprises a two-stage hierarchical sampling sub-network, a fine-grained image recognition sub-network, and a prognostic analysis sub-network. We assess the system's performance using a pathological dataset of 450 cases of ovarian HGSA diagnosed and treated at the Pathology Department of the West China Second University Hospital of Sichuan University. Results indicate that: (1) The proposed prognostic analysis network based on two-stage hierarchical sampling sub-network can effectively analyze the histopathology whole-slide image; (2) the use of fine-grained image recognition and the introduction of clinical information can improve the performance of HGSA prognosis analysis method, with an improvement range of 4.77–10.66%; and (3) the proposed method can be used for the model analysis of pathological datasets of HGSA. Moreover, this method can be used to explore effective characteristics from the multi-modal dataset through automatic learning with prediction recall, accuracy, and precision rates of 80.0%, 81.1%, and 81.8%, respectively, underscoring its clinical potential. This study reveals the reliability and effectiveness of the proposed prognosis evaluation method of HGCA. Conclusions can help clinicians precisely evaluate the recurrence risk of patients, take the initiative to master the diagnosis and treatment, and increase the long-term survival rate of patients.

Improving production and maintenance planning with meta-learning-based failure prediction

Digital manufacturing systems allow for dynamic production and maintenance planning adaptation based on internal and external evolving changes. In this context, data-driven predictive techniques can improve maintenance planning. However, dynamic production environments require the development of novel methods capable of efficiently managing the extensive data generated by manufacturing systems and processes while providing valuable insights for decision-making. Thus, this research proposes an integrated production and maintenance planning (IPMP) approach for digital manufacturing systems featuring a dynamic simulation-based optimization and a meta-learning-based failure prediction, which selects the best prognostic method to predict machine failures in real-time. The proposed model was applied to the Minifab case, in the semiconductor industry, providing a reduction of 20.9 % in lead time and 25.9 % in tardy jobs compared to setups with static dispatching rules and single-prognostic-method failure prediction. Such findings support the pertinence of the proposed novel approach in the area of production planning and control, contributing to the improvement of business performance, reliability, and competitiveness.

Maintenance & failure data analysis of an offshore wind farm

Offshore Wind (OW) continues to grow globally at a rapid pace, with growth estimates of 630GW by 2050. To facilitate this rapid growth, costs must continue to be reduced. Reducing operations and maintenance (O&M) costs, which are estimated at 30% of the lifetime costs of wind farms, offers opportunity. This could be achieved by moving current maintenance strategies to a prescriptive strategy. Prescriptive strategies use the turbine monitoring data to determine component remaining useful lifetimes or predict failure windows and then provide an optimised maintenance plan. The first stage of a framework, that can be applied to operational assets, for improving maintenance schedules with failure predictions is presented. Analysis of the SCADA system and the maintenance logs, at an operational offshore wind farm (OWF), with the purpose of identifying turbine failure rates, availabilities and losses and costs from maintenance and failures has been performed. The analysis has revealed two types of maintenance actions, one is cost of maintenance driven and the other cost of downtime driven. It is proposed that, given different characteristics, they should be approached differently in the context of failure predictions. It is also revealed that electrical components are critical to the failure rate and energy losses due to maintenance at the OWF. Electrical components represent approximately 28% of all failures and nearly 40% of revenue loss due downtimes from failure for the period analysed. The power converters drive most electrical failures and are of key commercial interest to the farm. As a result, the power converters should be the target for future prognostic model development. The analysis also shows that with perfect prediction and maintenance scheduling, this OWF could generate an extra 0.26% revenue and a generic 1GW OWF could generate an extra 0.6% extra energy and approximately £1.4m in revenue. This analysis did not reveal the benefit of taking fewer maintenance actions, which should be assessed in future work. Producing a combined prognostic maintenance scheduling method will generate extra wind farm revenues, reduce the number of maintenance actions taken and facilitate the work of maintenance teams.

#328 Non-invasive assessment of urinary exfoliated proximal tubule cells using multispectral autofluorescence imaging features for early detection of CKD

Abstract Background and Aims Early detection of CKD is important to allow for timely intervention which may reduce adverse clinical outcomes and cost of renal replacement therapies. Histopathological diagnosis of CKD remains the gold standard, but routine kidney biopsy is costly and associated with risks such as pain and bleeding. There is a need to develop accurate non-invasive methods for early diagnosis and prognostication of CKD. Kidney cell exfoliation into urine is an active process, which may generate significant information regarding an individual's kidney status. In particular, proximal tubule cells (PTCs) make up majority of the kidney mass and represents the hallmark of CKD in reflecting the degree of tubulointerstitial fibrosis and atrophy. Multispectral assessment of native cell autofluorescence has been specifically shown to be sensitive to metabolic changes and oxidative stress, which are key factors involved in kidney function decline. Hence, we evaluated whether multispectral autofluorescence signals in urinary exfoliated PTCs reflect kidney function as determined by eGFR. Method Individuals aged 18 or above were included and informed consent was obtained from all participants involved in this study. Spot urine samples were collected and stored at -80°C. On assessment, exfoliated PTCs were extracted from thawed urine using a validated specific immunomagnetic separation method based on anti-CD13 and anti-SGLT2 antibodies. Multispectral autofluorescence imaging was performed using a custom-made autofluorescence microscopy system (standard Olympus iX83™ fluorescence microscope and multispectral excitation lamp from Quantitative™, AU). Images were captured by a Nüvü™ EMCCD camera HNü 1024 cooled to -65°C in our laboratory to reduce sensor-induced noise. For the 34 image channels taken per sample, image acquisition times of up to 5 seconds per channel, with multiple averaging (3 times) was applied to optimize image quality. Image analysis was conducted through a workflow encompassing data preprocessing, data normalization and outlier handling, followed by basic model training and evaluation. An entropy-based image feature selection methodology was initially completed by hand, with results subsequently compared to that generated from the AutoGluon machine-learning framework [1]. The models developed from this process were assessed using ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curves and AUC (Area Under the Curve) values. Two discriminative studies were performed – an overall study between exfoliated PTCs of individuals eGFR≥60 and eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 and a subgroup study between that of individuals eGFR≥90 and eGFR 60-90 ml/min/1.73 m2. Results 40 individuals were included in our study. 20 individuals had eGFR≥60 and 20 had eGFR < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Multispectral assessment of cell autofluorescence features differentiated between exfoliated PTCs of these 2 groups with AUC value of 0.97 (95% CI 0.94-1.00) (Fig. 1), model accuracy being 82%. Subgroup analysis included 20 individuals of which 10 had eGFR≥90 and 10 had eGFR 60-90 ml/min/1.73 m2. Multispectral assessment of cell autofluorescence features differentiated between exfoliated PTCs of these 2 groups with AUC value of 0.99 (95% CI 0.99-1.00) (Fig. 2), model accuracy being 85%. Conclusion An excellent degree of differentiation between urinary PTCs derived from those with normal or high eGFR and mild degrees of CKD is now reliably demonstrated, complementing conclusions from our group's original small pilot study which evaluated between urinary PTCs from CKD and non-CKD cohorts [2]. Further studies are required to determine whether our novel method can be used to non-invasively predict individuals at risk of progressive kidney disease and to monitor whether intervention is effective.

Prognostic score-based methods for estimating center effects based on survival probability: Application to post-kidney transplant survival.

In evaluating the performance of different facilities or centers on survival outcomes, the standardized mortality ratio (SMR), which compares the observed to expected mortality has been widely used, particularly in the evaluation of kidney transplant centers. Despite its utility, the SMR may exaggerate center effects in settings where survival probability is relatively high. An example is one-year graft survival among U.S. kidney transplant recipients. We propose a novel approach to estimate center effects in terms of differences in survival probability (ie, each center versus a reference population). An essential component of the method is a prognostic score weighting technique, which permits accurately evaluating centers without necessarily specifying a correct survival model. Advantages of our approach over existing facility-profiling methods include a metric based on survival probability (greater clinical relevance than ratios of counts/rates); direct standardization (valid to compare between centers, unlike indirect standardization based methods, such as the SMR); and less reliance on correct model specification (since the assumed model is used to generate risk classes as opposed to fitted-value based 'expected' counts). We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed weighted estimator and evaluate its finite-sample performance under a diverse set of simulation settings. The method is then applied to evaluate U.S. kidney transplant centers with respect to graft survival probability.

СОВРЕМЕННЫЙ ПОДХОД К ОЦЕНКЕ ПЕРИНАТАЛЬНОГО РИСКА, ОСНОВАННЫЙ НА ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИИ ПРОГНОСТИЧЕСКИХ КРИТЕРИЕВ АНТЕНАТАЛЬНЫХ, ИНТРАНАТАЛЬНЫХ И РАННИХ НЕОНАТАЛЬНЫХ ПОТЕРЬ

The problem of perinatal losses is still actual in obstetrics today. At the same time there are cases of non-estimation or extra-estimation of perinatal risk in obstetrical practice. The usage of famous prognostic systems gives the opportunity to select pregnant women into groups of high risk and provide the necessary organizational and tactic measures. But to define the character of possible complications, to establish the degree of their severity and time of appearance is really impossible. Objective of the study: to develop a new approach to estimation of perinatal risk based on the determination of prognostic criteria for antepartum and intrapartum fetal death, early neonatal death of a newborn in order to increase the efficacy of predicting of unfavourable perinatal outcomes. Materials and research methods. The retrospective case-control study in patients with antepartum (n=134) and intrapartum (n=41) fetal death, early neonatal death of the newborn (n=61) and favourable perinatal outcome (n=50) was conducted. There was used the Bayes algorhythm with Wald's consecutive analysis in the modification of Genkin-Gubler to determine prognostic criteria. The comparative estimation of the efficacy of the proposed prognostic method and traditional method of determining perinatal risk was performed retrospectively in patients with perinatal losses (n=102) and favourable perinatal outcome (n=100). ROC analysis was performed. Results. There were identified 42 risk factors divided into three groups: universal for all types of perinatal losses, common for two of them and specific for each of them (antepartum and intrapartum fetal death, early neonatal death of a newborn). There was determined the prognostic influence of factors in their presence and absence. It was found that universal and common risk factors had different prognostic influence for each type of perinatal losses. There was presented the method for differential predicting of perinatal losses. The sensitivity of the new and traditional prognostic methods was 95.1% and 69.6%, specificity was 80% and 53%, and the accuracy of predicting of unfavourable outcome was 87.6% and 61.4% respectively. Conclusion. The investigation permitted to propose the new approach to estimation of perinatal risk, based on differential predicting of perinatal losses being is more effective than traditional method in predicting adverse perinatal outcomes.

Construction Price Forecasting Models in the Construction Industry: A Comparative Analysis

Construction prices rose rapidly during 2020 and 2021, making it almost impossible for contractors to adhere to agreed contract prices. For this reason, there was a request from contractors to adjust the contract price after signing a contract for work. During the implementation of the construction contracts, they were unable to comply with the fixed contract price. Forecasting the development of price indices could solve this problem by creating a reserve that would limit the adjustment of the contract price and the contractors’ withdrawal from the contracts. The forecast could be enshrined in the contractual conditions before the start of construction, which would eliminate the risk of changing the agreed contract price for the investor and the possible occurrence of additional work. Data from statistical offices were used to create the price index forecast. In this article, four methods were used in the search for a more accurate forecast: regression analysis, exponential smoothing, the naïve method, and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. From these methods, the most appropriate method was selected by multi-criteria decision-making, which was subsequently verified with actual published price index data. The main goals of this study are to determine the most suitable prognostic method for forecasting the development of the prices of construction materials and work and then comparing the forecasted data with the actual published data of statistical offices in the countries of Central Europe.

Is a Combination of Six Clinical Tests Useful as a Measure to Predict Short-Term Prognosis in Terminal Cancer Patients? A Prospective Observational Study in a Japanese Palliative Care Unit.

To address the need for short-term prognostic methods using objective measures, we developed a method to predict a 2- or 3-week prognosis using only six clinical tests (known as the WPCBAL score). However, the method has not yet been directly compared with globally accepted prognostic methods. This study aimed to clarify the usefulness of the WPCBAL score by comparing it with other prediction methods. A prospective observational study was conducted with patients admitted to the palliative care unit of a Municipal Hospital in Japan between November 2017 and May 2021. The primary endpoint was each prediction method's accuracy-the WPCBAL score, Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI), Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP), Delirium-Palliative Prognostic Score (D-PaP), and Prognosis in Palliative Care Study predictor models (PiPS-A, PiPS-B)-in predicting a prognosis at 2 or 3 weeks. The secondary endpoints were sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and each prediction method's feasibility rate. In total, 181 patients were included in this study. For the 3-week prognosis, the PaP had the highest accuracy (0.746), followed by the D-PaP (0.735), WPCBAL (0.696), PPI (0.652), and GPS (0.575). For the 2-week prognosis, the PiPS-B had the highest accuracy (0.702), followed by the WPCBAL (0.696) and PiPS-A (0.641). The WPCBAL score's accuracy in predicting a 2- or 3-week prognosis was comparable to that of commonly used prognostic methods, thus suggesting its usefulness as a short-term prognostic method.

Conditional survival of patients with primary bone lymphoma of the spine: how survival changes after initial diagnosis.

The current survival prediction methodologies for primary bone lymphoma (PBL) of the spine are deficient. This study represents the inaugural utilization of conditional survival (CS) to assess the outcome of this disease. Moreover, our objective was to devise a CS-based nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS) in real-time for spinal PBL. Patients with PBL of the spine diagnosed between January 2000 and December 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The OS was determined through the Kaplan-Meier method. The CS characteristic of patients with spinal PBL was delineated, with the CS being estimated utilizing the formula: CS(α|β) = OS(α+β)/OS(β). CS(α|β) denotes the probability of additional α-year survivorship, assuming the patient has already survived β years after the time of observation. Three methods including univariate Cox regression, best subset regression (BSR) and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression were used to identify predictors for CS-based nomogram construction. Kaplan-Meier analysis was executed to determine the OS rate for these patients, revealing a survival rate of 68% and subsequently 63% at the 3-year and 5-year mark respectively. We then investigated the CS patterning exhibited by these patients and discovered the survival of PBL in the spine progressively improved with time. Meanwhile, through three different prognostic factor selection methods, we identified the best predicter subset including age, tumor histology, tumor stage, chemotherapy and marital status, for survival prediction model construction. Finally, we successfully established and validated a novel CS-based nomogram model for real-time and dynamic survival estimation. Moreover, we further designed a risk stratification system to facilitate the identification of high-risk patients. This is the first study to analyze the CS pattern of PBL of the spine. And we have also developed a CS-based nomogram that provide dynamic prognostic data in real-time, thereby aiding in the formulation of personalized treatment strategies in clinical practice.

Gas turbine prognostics via Temporal Fusion Transformer

Abstract Gas turbines play a vital role in various industries. Timely and accurately predicting their degradation is essential for efficient operation and optimal maintenance planning. Diagnostic and prognostic outcomes aid in determining the optimal compressor washing intervals. Diagnostics detects compressor fouling and estimates the trend up to the current time. If the forecast indicates fast progress in the fouling trend, scheduling offline washing during the next inspection event or earlier may be crucial to address the fouling deposit comprehensively. This approach ensures that compressor cleaning is performed based on its actual health status, leading to improved operation and maintenance costs. This paper presents a novel prognostic method for gas turbine degradation forecasting through a time-series analysis. The proposed approach uses the Temporal Fusion Transformer model capable of capturing time-series relationships at different scales. It combines encoder and decoder layers to capture temporal dependencies and temporal-attention layers to capture long-range dependencies across the encoded degradation trends. Temporal attention is a self-attention mechanism that enables the model to consider the importance of each time step degradation in the context of the entire degradation profile of the given health parameter. Performance data from multiple two-spool turbofan engines is employed to train and test the method. The test results show promising forecasting ability of the proposed method multiple flight cycles into the future. By leveraging the insights provided by the method, maintenance events and activities can be scheduled in a proactive manner. Future work is to extend the method to estimate remaining useful life.

Single-cell RNA-seq reveals T cell exhaustion and immune response landscape in osteosarcoma.

T cell exhaustion in the tumor microenvironment has been demonstrated as a substantial contributor to tumor immunosuppression and progression. However, the correlation between T cell exhaustion and osteosarcoma (OS) remains unclear. In our present study, single-cell RNA-seq data for OS from the GEO database was analysed to identify CD8+ T cells and discern CD8+ T cell subsets objectively. Subgroup differentiation trajectory was then used to pinpoint genes altered in response to T cell exhaustion. Subsequently, six machine learning algorithms were applied to develop a prognostic model linked with T cell exhaustion. This model was subsequently validated in the TARGETs and Meta cohorts. Finally, we examined disparities in immune cell infiltration, immune checkpoints, immune-related pathways, and the efficacy of immunotherapy between high and low TEX score groups. The findings unveiled differential exhaustion in CD8+ T cells within the OS microenvironment. Three genes related to T cell exhaustion (RAD23A, SAC3D1, PSIP1) were identified and employed to formulate a T cell exhaustion model. This model exhibited robust predictive capabilities for OS prognosis, with patients in the low TEX score group demonstrating a more favorable prognosis, increased immune cell infiltration, and heightened responsiveness to treatment compared to those in the high TEX score group. In summary, our research elucidates the role of T cell exhaustion in the immunotherapy and progression of OS, the prognostic model constructed based on T cell exhaustion-related genes holds promise as a potential method for prognostication in the management and treatment of OS patients.

An adaptive model with dual-dimensional attention for remaining useful life prediction of aero-engine

As an indispensable part in prognostics and health management (PHM) of mechanical systems, the remaining useful life (RUL) estimation has been studied widely and intensively. Recently, with the boom in deep learning, the traditional data-driven prognostic methods like the temporal convolutional neural networks (TCNs), have made remarkable progress in the RUL estimation. However, the conventional TCNs methods do not have a well-established mechanism to parallel weigh the dual-dimensional features of multi-sensory data. Moreover, the conventional TCNs have a fixed network structure which is not flexible to learn deep temporal representations. Here, we propose an adaptive model with dual-dimensional attention for aero-engine RUL prognostics. Specifically, the dual-dimensional multi-head attention (DMHA) module is constructed to assign weights to features in the spatial and temporal dimensions, and then preforms the feature fusion. The mathematical derivations of the DMHA module parameter iterations are performed, which enhances the interpretability of the model. Next, the adaptive TCN (ATCN) is designed to further learn the time correlations of the fused features. Compared with the traditional TCN, the ATCN can adjust the network structure adaptively and extract the deep temporal representations better. Last, the prediction ability of the DMHA-ATCN is verified by conducting experiments on the C-MAPSS dataset.

Cardiomyopathy prediction in patients with permanent ventricular pacing using machine learning methods

Pacing-induced cardiomyopathy is a notable issue in patients needing permanent ventricular pacing. Identifying risk groups early and swiftly preventing the ailment can reduce patient harm. However, current prognostic methods require clarity. We employed machine learning to develop predictive models using medical data. Three algorithms — decision tree, group method of data handling, and logistic regression — formed models that forecast pacing-induced cardiomyopathy. These models displayed high accuracy in predicting development, signifying soundness. Factors like age, paced QRS width, pacing mode, and ventricular index during implantation significantly influenced predictions. Machine learning can enhance pacing-induced cardiomyopathy prediction in ventricular pacing patients, aiding medical practice and preventive strategies.

A Design for Availability Approach for Use with PHM


 
 
 Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) methods are incorporated into systems for the purpose of avoiding unanticipated failures that can impact system safety, result in additional life cycle cost, and/or adversely affect the availability of the system. Availability is the probability that a system will be able to function when called upon to do so. A vailability depends on the system’ s reliability (how often it fails) and its maintainability (how efficiently and frequently it is pro-actively maintained, and how quickly it can be repaired and restored to operation when it does fail). Availability is directly impacted by the success of PHM. Increasingly, customers of critical systems are entering into “availability contracts” in which the customer either buys the availability of the system (rather than actually purchasing the system itself) or the amount that the system developer/manufacturer/supplier is paid for the system is a function of the availability achieved by the customer. Predicting availability based on known or predicted system reliability, operational parameters, logistics, etc., is relatively straightforward and can be accomplished using existing methods. However, while determining the availability that results from a set of events is straightforward, determining the events that result in a desired availability is not, and prediction of a system’s attributes to meet an availability requirement can only be accomplished using “brute force” search-based methods that are not general and become quickly impractical for real systems and when uncertainties are introduced. This paper presents a “design for availability” approach that starts with an availability requirement and uses it to predict the required logistics, design and operation parameters. The method is general and can be applied when the inputs to the problem are uncertain (even the availability requirement can be a probability distribution). The method is demonstrated on several examples with and without PHM.
 
 

Риски адвоката при использовании социальных сетей в профессиональной деятельности

The widespread use of social media in the process of to providing qualified legal assistance by representatives of various legal professions, including advocates, on the one hand, improved citizens’ access to legal infor-mation and receiving qualified legal assistance, but on the other hand, it caused new risks. World practice is replete with examples when unethical and unprofessional behavior of advocates on social media was nega-tively reflected both in law practice and on clients. Having studied such examples, the author of the article for-mulates proposals aimed at minimizing the risks associated with the participation of lawyers in social media. These proposals are aimed at expanding the ability of advocates to use social media in professional activities, comprehensive protection of such communication, as well as the ability of clients to receive up-to-date legal information and, if necessary, qualified legal assistance. The author systematized and summarized Russian and Foreign sources on the problem of this article, used such research methods as analysis and synthesis, and also statistical and prognostic methods.

Matrix- and Surface-Assisted Laser Desorption/Ionization Mass Spectrometry Methods for Urological Cancer Biomarker Discovery-Metabolomics and Lipidomics Approaches.

Urinary tract cancers, including those of the bladder, the kidneys, and the prostate, represent over 12% of all cancers, with significant global incidence and mortality rates. The continuous challenge that these cancers present necessitates the development of innovative diagnostic and prognostic methods, such as identifying specific biomarkers indicative of cancer. Biomarkers, which can be genes, proteins, metabolites, or lipids, are vital for various clinical purposes including early detection and prognosis. Mass spectrometry (MS), particularly soft ionization techniques such as electrospray ionization (ESI) and laser desorption/ionization (LDI), has emerged as a key tool in metabolic profiling for biomarker discovery, due to its high resolution, sensitivity, and ability to analyze complex biological samples. Among the LDI techniques, matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI) and surface-assisted laser desorption/ionization (SALDI) should be mentioned. While MALDI methodology, which uses organic compounds as matrices, is effective for larger molecules, SALDI, based on the various types of nanoparticles and nanostructures, is preferred for smaller metabolites and lipids due to its reduced spectral interference. This study highlights the application of LDI techniques, along with mass spectrometry imaging (MSI), in identifying potential metabolic and lipid biomarkers for urological cancers, focusing on the most common bladder, kidney, and prostate cancers.

Development and Methodological Validation of a Modified Staging System for de Novo Metastatic Breast Cancer

Validation of a new method for prognostication of de novo metastatic breast cancer (dnMBC) to better reflect the heterogenecity of the disease. To perform external methodological validation of the Plichta staging system, a novel prognostic system for de novo metastatic breast cancer (dnMBC). This retrospective cohort study used a multicenter, nationwide, population-based Danish Breast Cancer Group database to validate the new method. Participants were patients with dnMBC diagnosed between 2010 and 2019. Data were analyzed from April to June 2023. A recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was performed, as demonstrated by Plichta and colleagues, to group patients with similar overall survival (OS) based on clinical factors. The main outcome was to group patients into 4 prognostic groups based on 3-year OS as stage IVa, greater than 70%; stage IVb, 50% to 70%; stage IVc, 25% to less than 50%; or stage IVd, less than 25%. Bootstrapping was applied for 1000 iterations, with final stage assignments based on the most commonly occurring assignment. A total of 1859 women were included with a median (IQR) age of 69 (57-77) years. With a median potential follow-up of 89.9 (95% CI, 86.4-95.1) months and a median OS of 31.7 (95% CI, 29.5-34.1) months, the RPA stratified patients into 10 groups, with organ sites, estrogen receptor status, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status as the key clinical factors. Three-year survival rates ranged from 62% (95% CI, 56%-69%) to 8% (95% CI, 3%-21%), which were further combined into 3 stage groups: IVb, 59.4% (95% CI, 56.2%-62.8%); IVc, 39.4% (95% CI, 36.2%-43.0%); and IVd, 15.4% (95% CI, 11.2%-21.3%) (P < .001). Following bootstrapping, an IVa group emerged, resulting in 4 stage groups with separate 3-year OS rates identified as IVa, 75.8% (95% CI, 67.8%-84.7%); IVb, 58.8% (95% CI, 55.5%-62.3%); IVc, 39.2% (95% CI, 35.8%-43.0%); and IVd, 14.4% (95% CI, 10.8%-19.4%) (P < .001). These findings provide external and independent validation of the methods applied in the novel Plichta staging system for dnMBC. This could guide future revisions of the current American Joint Committee on Cancer staging guidelines and may be incorporated as a stratification factor in clinical trials.

Prognostics and Health Management Methods for Reliability Prediction and Predictive Maintenance

Prognostics and Health Management Methods for Reliability Prediction and Predictive Maintenance

A New Automated Prognostic Prediction Method Based on Multi-Sequence Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Hepatic Resection of Colorectal Cancer Liver Metastases.

Colorectal cancer is a prevalent and life-threatening disease, where colorectal cancer liver metastasis (CRLM) exhibits the highest mortality rate. Currently, surgery stands as the most effective curative option for eligible patients. However, due to the insufficient performance of traditional methods and the lack of multi-modality MRI feature complementarity in existing deep learning methods, the prognosis of CRLM surgical resection has not been fully explored. This paper proposes a new method, multi-modal guided complementary network (MGCNet), which employs multi-sequence MRI to predict 1-year recurrence and recurrence-free survival in patients after CRLM resection. In light of the complexity and redundancy of features in the liver region, we designed the multi-modal guided local feature fusion module to utilize the tumor features to guide the dynamic fusion of prognostically relevant local features within the liver. On the other hand, to solve the loss of spatial information during multi-sequence MRI fusion, the cross-modal complementary external attention module designed an external mask branch to establish inter-layer correlation. The results show that the model has accuracy (ACC) of 0.79, the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84, C-Index of 0.73, and hazard ratio (HR) of 4.0, which is a significant improvement over state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, MGCNet exhibits good interpretability.