Mean Average Percentage Error Research Articles

Econometric modeling of electricity consumption in post-war Lebanon

This paper applies econometric models to investigate determinants of electrical energy consumption in post-war Lebanon. The impact of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), proxied by total imports ( TI), and degree days ( DD) on electricity consumption is investigated over different time spans covering the period from 1993 to 1997. The time spans are chosen according to the rationing level of electricity supply. For the 1993–1994 time span, TI is found to be a significant determinant of energy consumption, whereas, DD has a negative correlation. This inconsistency might be attributed to an extensive rationing policy followed during this period. For the 1995–1997 time span which includes reduced rationing period (1995), all electrical energy consumption determinants are found to be significant at the 5% significance level. Analysis results for the rationing free 1996–1997 time span also show the significance of TI and DD at the 5% level. Furthermore, cointegration analysis for the 1995–1997 and 1996–1997 subsets reveals the existence of a long-run relationship between all variables. In addition, error correction models for both subsets are developed to predict short-run dynamics. Finally, statistical performance measures such as mean square error, mean average deviation and mean average percentage error are presented for all models.

Simulating Bus Operations with Enhanced Corridor Simulator: Case Study of New Jersey Transit Bus Route 39

The corridor simulator (CORSIM)-based microscopic program, which can simulate realistic bus operations, has been enhanced with some newly developed features; these are validated. Transit operations-related data for New Jersey Transit Bus Route 39 were collected to assess the reliability of the enhanced CORSIM program. On the basis of the mean average percentage error and the root mean square error, this study demonstrated that simulation output can represent realistic bus operations, such as the disruptions of transit headways caused by ridership fluctuations at bus stops and delays at intersections. The proposed program provides a potential basis for evaluating advanced transit management and control strategies and real-time transit traveler information systems in the advent of advanced public transportation systems.