Mayoral Election Research Articles

Fighting violence against women: The role of female political representation

We investigate the effect of women’s political leadership in local government on domestic violence against women. Using a regression discontinuity design, we compare Brazilian municipalities where a female candidate barely won to those where a female candidate barely lost mayoral elections. We find that the presence of a female mayor leads to a 50% average reduction in both the homicide rate and violence against women over a four-year term. These results are not attributable to pre-existing municipal characteristics or other observable mayor attributes. Collectively, our findings offer compelling evidence that women in office play a significant role in effectively addressing violence against women.

Instagramming the Political Image: Visual Campaigning Strategies of Successful Opposition Candidates in Turkey’s 2019 Mayoral Elections

This study explores how opposition political candidates strategically use Instagram images for their election campaigns in a competitive authoritarian regime. The article focuses on Turkey’s 2019 mayoral elections and reports findings from 452 Instagram posts by the winning candidates in the three biggest cities (İzmir, Ankara, and İstanbul), all of whom are from the opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP). The results from a quantitative content analysis show that all elected mayors mainly applied their traditional media strategies directly to Instagram as part of broadcasting purposes. They rarely extended their campaigning to other media platforms as part of a hybrid campaign strategy. Implications of the role of Instagram in challenging incumbent parties in competitive authoritarian regimes are discussed.

Analysis of Polling Station Supervisor Recruitment (Ptps) in Kecamatan Welcome to The 2020 Samarinda Mayor and Vice Mayor Elections

This study aims to determine the Recruitment and Selection of Polling Station Supervisors in the Welcome District in the 2020 Samarinda Mayor and Vice Mayor Elections and their supporting and inhibiting factors. The type of research used in this study is qualitative research. Sampling technique with purposive sampling technique. For data collection techniques, including 1) In-depth interviews, 2) Observation participation, and 3) Documentation studies. As for data analysis techniques, namely Miles and Huberman's interactive model data analysis techniques. The results of the study showed: 1) The screening carried out by the Panwaslu of the Welcome District for Prospective TPS Supervisors in the Welcome District, in this case, is related to the completeness of administrative files, such as Application Forms, Statement Letters, e-KTP, K.K., Diplomas, and other supporting documents. The screening of TPS Supervisory Candidates is more about the material aspect, where the Recruitment Committee examines the files of TPS Supervisory Candidates in the TWelcome District in more depth. Most of the deaths of polling station supervisory candidates in the TWelcome sub-district are due to ties with fellow election organizers, such as their husbands/wives also being KPPS, being involved as members of political parties, the team of one of the candidates, and the e-KTP concerned has been recorded as supporting independent candidates. In the process of selecting TPS Supervisory Candidates in TWelcome District who will later be assigned as TPS Supervisors at 122 polling stations spread across Sambutan District, some of the essential assessment indicators are experience in elections, understanding of election regulations, and being able to apply for the Siwaslu program. Supporting Factors in the Recruitment of Polling Place Supervisors (PTPS) in the 2020 Samarinda Mayor and Deputy Mayor Elections, namely 1) High public interest and interest to be involved in elections, primarily registering to become a Polling Station Supervisor in Welcome District and 2) The growing use of electronic media facilitates information related to Polling Station Supervisor Recruitment in Sambutan District. The Inhibiting Factors in the Recruitment of Polling Station Supervisors (PTPS) in the 2020 Samarinda Mayor and Deputy Mayor Elections, namely 1) The situation and conditions of Covid-19 make people reluctant to do activities in crowded places, 2) Most people who have an interest in becoming polling station supervisors must be aborted because the e-KTP concerned has been recorded as an independent person supporter, 3) Most people who have an interest in becoming polling station supervisors must be dropped because they do not meet the qualifications in terms of age and education level, and 4) The Welcome District Panwaslu must compete with the Welcome District Election Committee (PPK) and Candidate Pairs, because at the same time, the KDP recruits the Voting Organizing Group (KPPS), even numbering 7 (seven) people per polling station, plus the Prospective Spouse who recruits his Witnesses.

Promising a Greener Paris: Anne Hidalgo’s Framing of Environmental Issues in Her Mayoral Campaigns

ABSTRACT Mayors are increasingly tackling environmental issues. To enact demonstrable change, however, mayors first need to be elected – leading one to question: How can a candidate create cohesive messaging on environmental issues and win? By content analyzing Anne Hidalgo’s successful 2014 and 2020 mayoral elections in Paris, this study seeks to illuminate potential environmental communication strategies for future candidates. Results revealed Hidalgo favored traditional environmental frames over alternate frames, treatment recommendations over blame attributions, and ecological solidarity frames. Further, Hidalgo employed gender adaptive strategies moving between elections, which enabled her to navigate gendered expectations in becoming Paris’s first female mayor.

Political Inclusiveness Degree of State Civil Apparatus and Bureaucracy on Mayor and Deputy Mayor Elections in Palu City 2015

This research is based on the condition of the phenomena of the state civil apparatus and the bureaucracy in the election of the mayor and deputy mayor of Palu which is marked by the political events that occur. Simultaneous regional head elections in the province of Central Sulawesi. The theory used is the participation theory from Michael Rush and Philips Althoff and the bureaucratic theory from Max Weber. The aims to analyze how the participation of the community participates in the implementation of the Mayor and Deputy Mayor Elections in 2015. The research method used is descriptive qualitative. Informants were obtained in a purposive way with the criteria of state civil servants, bureaucracy, totaling 7 informants. The results showed that the degree of political inclusivity of state apparatus in the 2015 mayoral and deputy mayoral elections was as follows: state apparatus in the election of the mayor and deputy mayor of Palu were in a neutral position, However, there are several realities where there are emotional and work relationships that are always under pressure, either directly or indirectly, making it difficult to make political decisions individually and have to be involved in the state apparatus situation itself. The Palu city government bureaucracy, which is inclusive in political decision-making, is marked by intrigue from the mayor and deputy mayor officials because based on the law, they hold power over the SKPD, which should be held by the city secretary.

The Development of General Elections and Regional Head Elections After the Reformasi Era

Indonesia is a constitutional state (Rechtsstaat) that upholds the values of legal norms based on laws. Indonesia has the highest legal norms, namely Pancasila and the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia. Therefore, all forms of legislation that are made must not conflict with the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia. in the Indonesian constitutional system experienced a very significant change. The implementation of direct and simultaneous elections in the post-reform era was held on April 17 2019, which is historical in the electoral process in Indonesia. This is an implication of the Constitutional Court Decision Number 14/PUU-XI/2013 concerning the judicial review case of the Law of the Republic of Indonesia Number 42 of 2008 concerning the General Election of President and Vice President. directly by the people. Simultaneous election implementation which will be held in 2024, this has been stipulated in the Law of the Republic of Indonesia Number 7 of 2017 concerning General Elections and the Law of the Republic of Indonesia Number 10 of 2016 concerning the Second Amendment to Law Number 1 of 2015 Concerning the Stipulation of Government Regulation in Lieu of Law Number 1 of 2014 Concerning the Election of Governors, Regents and Mayors to Become Laws. The two laws mandate that in 2024 elections will be held simultaneously in 1 (one) year, namely presidential and vice-presidential elections, legislative elections and regional head elections. In addition, there is a provision regarding the presidential threshold that has existed since the 2004 election.

Downsian closeness hypothesis under investigation: a study on austrian direct mayoral elections

Does the expectation of a close race drive more people to vote? Despite increasingly intensified electoral competition and hardened fronts at all political levels over the last decades, a decline in turnout rates can be observed representing a puzzling development. Though there are anomalies, previous studies show a clear trend towards a positive association between a close race and an increase in turnout. Based on the idea of the “rational choice” theory, the prospect of a close or undecided race increases the subjective weight of the individual vote, which drives more voters to the ballot box. In fact, ‘expected Closeness’ is one of the most frequently tested independent variables in voter turnout research. However, the factor is only measured ex-post in most cases. Such measurements use the results of the actual election to infer the ‘Closeness’ of the race. However, these measurement methods are less valid because they do not measure ‘Closeness’ in the decisive period before the election takes place. We want to contribute a test of the effect by analysing all runoff elections in Austrian direct mayoral elections since 1991 as they allow for ex-ante measurement. The first ballots and the runoffs are temporally close. Thus, the first vote results serve as a direct indicator of the ‘expected Closeness’ in the second round of voting. The electorate changes, if at all, only insignificantly between the ballots. In addition, socio-economic factors influencing voter turnout can be kept constant, increasing the validity of the test. The results of this study underline the positive and independent effect of ‘Closeness’ on the turnout of the election. The closer a mayoral race in Austria is in the first round, the higher is the turnout in the following runoff elections. The study also presents the independent and strong effects of socioeconomic factors on turnout. Our research not only provides a valid test of the effect of ‘expected Closeness’ on voter turnout, it also constitutes pioneering work in complete data collection on all direct mayoral elections in Austria.

Export side effects of wars on organized crime: The case of Mexico

This paper finds that law enforcement interventions during the Mexican Drug War (MDW) hindered local export growth. We leverage exogenous variation in drug enforcement from the close election of mayors affiliated with the national ruling party during the MDW. Firms servicing the same markets but exogenously exposed to drug enforcement experienced lower export growth. The MDW decreased capital investments, eroding productivity gains in capital-intensive activities.

Citra Politik Kandidat Walikota Semarang dalam Instagram: Analisis Dramaturgi pada Pilwakot Semarang 2020

This article aims to analyze the political image of Hendrar Prihadi (Hendi), incumbent mayoral candidate of Semarang 2020 election shown on Instagram @hendrarprihadi in the midst of covid-19 pandemic. If most candidates concoct political slogans and deliver campaign promises, Hendi’s Instagram portrays more amusing content with a minimum amount of campaign messages. Dramaturgy theory used to analyze framing processes on Instagram as frontstage, and what backstage and offstage factors could affect this single candidate manage to get 91,4% of votes, even though activists consider election in the midst of pandemic as less humane, and single candidate could lower voters’ turnover. Qualitative analysis data collected from interviews and articles shows that amusing content on Hendi’s Instagram designed to pacify the public affected by covid-19, followers are easily extracted by amusing content, and as a method to sheer away from sensitive political issues. Backstage, although Semarang reported as the highest contributor of covid-19 cases in Indonesia, and numbers of rule violation campaigns, candidate characteristic, leadership, incumbent status, and also relation with public and political figure be the several things making candidate’s political image more stable, affecting candidate winning the 2020 Semarang Mayoral Election.

Fajar.co.id Political Reporting: A Study on Editorial Policy Related to the Makassar Mayoral Election

This research explore Fajar.co.id’s editorial policies and editorial management process in political reporting, particularly concerning the 2020 Makassar Mayoral Election. This research uses an inductive qualitative analysis. Inductive analysis is an approach that begins with field facts, analyzes them based on relevant theories and arguments, and ultimately yields a conclusion. The results show that Fajar.co.id’s editorial policy in reporting the 2020 Makassar Mayoral Election prioritizes newsworthiness by ensuring each published news piece is widely discussed, offers interesting perspectives, and uses language easily understood by a broad spectrum of society from various backgrounds. The applied editorial management demonstrates that content control occurs in the initial writing phase, with editors playing a crucial role in editing and gatekeeping functions. Although published news becomes public domain, the editorial team remains responsible for ensuring the accuracy and integrity of content by correcting writing errors without altering the news substance. Therefore, it is recommended that Fajar.co.id’s editors and reporters continue honing their abilities in identifying and processing issues with high news value and social relevance while maintaining a balance between commercially appealing news and the importance of information for public interest. Fajar.co.id must keep its motto ‘wisdom on the unbiased line’. Furthermore, the importance of ongoing training in language skills enhancement to communicate news effectively to a diverse reader while ensuring that every presented news piece adheres to ethical journalism principles is emphasized. Additionally, the already robust control and gatekeeping system should continue to be strengthened to ensure any factual or linguistic errors can be promptly corrected without altering the essence of the news, to uphold and enhance Fajar.co.id’s credibility as a responsible and reliable news media.

Drought‐Reliefs and Partisanship

AbstractWe combine a model of symmetric information with selfish and office‐motivated politicians and a Regression Discontinuity Design analysis based on close municipal elections to study partisan bias in the allocation of drought aid relief in Brazil. We identify a novel pattern of distributive politics whereby partisan bias materialises only before municipal elections, while it disappears before presidential elections. Furthermore, before mayoral elections, it fades for extreme (high or low) aridity levels while persisting for moderate levels. Our empirical results show that in this case alignment increases the probability of receiving aid relief by a factor of two (equivalent to 18.1 percentage points).

Legal Social Justice in Appointment Non-Definitive Regional Heads toward Welfare State

<div><table cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" align="left"><tbody><tr><td align="left" valign="top"><p class="AbstractText">The process of resolving administrative violations in the appointment of non-definitive regional heads that have not been regulated can threaten democratic values. Likewise, there has not been a judicial institution that has been given special authority to try it. This study aims to provide a regulatory model or settlement of administrative violations in the appointment of non-definitive regional heads in the welfare state. This study is a normative legal research that uses legal theory to settle administrative violations, legal protection, the welfare state, and Pancasila democracy. The study results show that the judicial mechanism for appointing non-definitive regional heads has a specificity that cannot be resolved through general State Administrative dispute resolution. In the USA, election disputes were resolved through the courts, whereas, in Australia, the Electoral Management Bodies determine the mayoral elections dispute. A design that can be chosen for the judicial process for appointing a non-definitive regional head is proposed, namely by granting authority to <em>Bawaslu</em> to resolve administrative violations through the Special Court mechanism. The granting of judicial authority can fulfill the basic principles of fast, open, and constitutional non-definitive regional head appointment dispute resolution.</p></td></tr></tbody></table></div>

The inconvenience of convenience voting: Early voting’s turnout effects in local elections

ABSTRACT Much attention is paid to the effect of election reforms in national and state elections. One such election reform is early voting. An ample amount of early voting scholarship focuses on turnout effects of early voting in national and state elections. Yet, little has been done on the turnout effects of early voting in local elections even though localities must adhere to these reforms. Using data from 2,449 mayoral elections in 849 Ohio municipalities from 2001 to 2013, I employ a fixed effects regression to assess the impact of early voting on municipal turnout. I find that early voting depresses local voter turnout.

Towards a predominant party system: the May 2023 election in Greece

ABSTRACT The parliamentary election of May 2023 in Greece is historic because it was the first held with a proportional representation electoral system in decades. Notably, there was an unprecedented 20-point difference between the winner, New Democracy, and the second party, SYRIZA. Thus, the election marks a shift towards a predominant party system, which is accompanied by a decrease in all relevant institutionalisation indices, somewhat reversing a period of stabilisation and a return of two-partyism. Empirical evidence points towards economic voting as the main determinant for New Democracy’s second consecutive win, albeit in a media environment of waning pluralism.

A Costly Commitment: Populism, Economic Performance, and the Quality of Bureaucracy

AbstractWe study the consequences of populism for economic performance and the quality of bureaucracy. When voters lose trust in representative democracy, populists strategically supply unconditional policy commitments that are easier to monitor for voters. When in power, populists try to implement their policy commitments regardless of financial constraints and expert assessment of the feasibility of their policies, worsening government economic performance and dismantling resistance from expert bureaucrats. With novel data on more than 8,000 Italian municipalities covering more than 20 years, we estimate the effect of electing a populist mayor with a close‐election regression discontinuity design. We find that the election of a populist mayor leads to smaller repayments of debts, a larger share of procurement contracts with cost overruns, higher turnover among top bureaucrats—driven by forced rather than voluntary departures—and a sharp decrease in the percentage of postgraduate bureaucrats.

Ask a Political Scientist: A Conversation with Katherine J. Cramer about Listening as a Way of Democratic and Scholarly Life

Ask a Political Scientist: A Conversation with Katherine J. Cramer about Listening as a Way of Democratic and Scholarly Life

Political Recruitment and Party Institutionalization: PDIP's Internal Tension in the 2020 Surakarta Mayoral Election

This article aims to explain the causes of internal tension within the Indonesian Democratic Party—Struggle (PDIP) Party. The internal tension occurred vertically and horizontally due to the party’s central office intervention in the recruitment process for the 2020 Surakarta mayoral candidate. The intervention caused disappointment among Surakarta Branch Leadership Council (DPC) Surakarta cadres towards the PDIP's Central Leadership Council (DPP) policies and deconsolidation within the DPC level prior to the election. The research approach used is descriptive-qualitative, with data collection techniques used are documentary and literature studies. In contrast to the explanation of previous works that emphasize the oligarchy and centralism of decision-making, this article shows that the cause of the internal tension within the PDIP Party is the low degree of party institutionalization, especially in the systemness and decisional autonomy dimensions.

Filipinos’ Preferred Views of Presidential Candidates in the 2022 Election

The right to vote and to stand for the welfare of one’s country, especially in selecting the next leaders is at the core of every democratic government. In the Philippines, a national and local election was held in 2022. A few months before the May 2022 election, this study was conducted to determine the preferred stands of the voters’ presidential candidates in terms of issues in politics, economics, social, environmental, education and health. A total of 1,065 Filipino registered voters all over the country participated in an online survey that was conducted from January 1 to April 30, 2022. The results of the study revealed that the respondents preferred a president and vice president who will push for the automatic removal from office of any appointed official with involvement in corruption issues; while they oppose for a leader who proposed to go on war with China for territorial disputes. They preferred a leader who will continue the 4Ps as social program; while they least preferred a president who will agree in the legalization of abortion in the Philippines. As economic priority programs, they preferred a leader who will improve the condition of the agricultural sectors. As environmental priority program, they prefer a president who will push for: exploration of renewable energy sources; policies on climate change; decongestion of Manila; and mandate the restrictions of mining industries re: land owned by the IPs. In terms of educational programs, leaders must prioritize support for Filipino inventors and scientists; as well improve teachers’ qualifications; uplift the quality of textbooks; amend the K to 12 Law; and re-impose the mandatory ROTC for Senior High School and College students. In general, the respondents voted for Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr., and Sara Duterte-Carpio as president and vice president respectively, which accord to the result of the actual election in May 2022.

The protest voting behaviour among local voters in the 2020 Surakarta mayoral election

This research explores the protest voting phenomenon in the Surakarta, Indonesia, mayoral election in response to political oligarchy. It uses a qualitative method, and the data analysis uses NVivo 12 Plus software. The findings reveal that the protest voting movement in the Surakarta mayoral election occurred as an effort to resist political parties. The protest vote made ballots invalid, showing no trust in candidates. Political parties practiced oligarchy by jointly endorsing the president's active son as a candidate. The parties had no initiative in bringing up alternative candidates due to the pragmatism of powers. Then, this political oligarchy became headline news. This research implies that public trust in political parties as instruments of democracy has increasingly degraded due to the parties’ pragmatic behavior. Moreover, voters have understood that oligarchic practices must be resisted in order to select ideal leaders.

Mayoral elections and partisan dynamics in Africa’s local governments

ABSTRACT Enforcing party loyalty is particularly difficult in settings where parties are not strongly differentiated by policy or ideological platforms, as is the case in many African countries. Instead, the system of party nominations serves an important role in maintaining loyalty and discipline. Yet, direct mayoral elections at the subnational level affect these dynamics by expanding the range of positions that politicians can occupy, thereby creating opportunities for them to forge greater visibility within their party or enabling them to defect and create an independent political identity. Drawing on the case of Zambia, which shifted in 2016 from indirect to direct mayoral elections for its district councils, this article discusses how the change in electoral rules contributed to more independent mayoral candidates and growing intra-party frictions, especially among mayors governing large urban areas. Additional case studies from Senegal, which shifted to direct elections in 2022, and Mozambique, which reverted to indirect elections in 2018, further underscore the external validity of the analysis while refining its scope conditions. The article emphasizes that while political decentralization is often viewed as a mechanism for enhancing downwards accountability to citizens, it can also exert considerable impacts on party loyalty.