Potential Vorticity Maximum Research Articles

Anomaly patterns about strong convective events in the tropics and midlatitudes: Observations from radiosondes and surface weather stations

AbstractWe use 13 years (1998–2010) of rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission to identify high rain events located close to radiosondes. This is done in four regions: the Western Tropical Pacific, Tropical Brazil, Southeast China, and Southeast U.S. We then construct composite anomaly patterns of temperature, relative humidity, surface pressure, convective available potential energy (CAPE), geopotential height, mass divergence, relative vorticity, and potential vorticity about these high rain events. One motivation of this analysis is to identify regional differences in the interaction between strong convective events and the background atmosphere. We find, overall, that the changes in meteorological variables which occur during the evolution of strong convective events in midlatitudes are similar to the changes that occur in the tropics. In midlatitudes, however, strong convective events are associated with stronger anomalies in surface pressure and geopotential height and exhibit a warm anomaly in the lower troposphere prior to peak rainfall. In the Southeast U.S., the near‐surface layer of positive CAPE that occurs prior to high rain events is thicker than in the Western Tropical Pacific. In the two midlatitude regions, the midlevel potential vorticity maximum that develops during the growth stage of high rain events acquires a downward tilt toward the surface during the decay stage, suggesting downward transport toward the surface. A conceptual model previously used to interpret the anomaly patterns of the 2 day equatorial wave is used to interpret the anomaly patterns associated with more general types of high rain events in the tropics.

Comments on “Convectively Generated Potential Vorticity in Rainbands and Formation of the Secondary Eyewall in Hurricane Rita of 2005”

Abstract In a previous paper Judt and Chen propose that secondary eyewall formation can be the result of the accumulation of convectively generated potential vorticity in the rainbands. They argue that secondary potential vorticity maxima precede the development of the secondary wind maximum and conclude that vortex Rossby waves do not contribute to the formation of the secondary eyewall. Amidst examination of their thought-provoking study, some questions arose regarding their methodology, interpretation, and portrayal of previous literature. Here the authors inquire about aspects of the methodology for diagnosing vortex Rossby waves and assessing their impact on their simulation. Inaccuracies in the literature review are noted and further analysis of existing, three-dimensional, full-physics, numerical hurricane integrations that exhibit canonical secondary eyewalls are encouraged.

Coherent Synoptic Disturbances in the Australian Monsoon

Abstract Coherent synoptic-scale weather systems within the Australian monsoon are identified and tracked in the isentropic potential vorticity (PV) field from the ECMWF Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) dataset during the Southern Hemisphere summer. The resulting dataset is then used to compile statistics and synoptic composites of Australian monsoon disturbances. On average, a synoptic system is found in the region every 2.5 days. However, the time interval between consecutive events is highly variable, meaning that the synoptic activity in the Australian monsoon is not well represented by commonly employed spectral techniques. The analysis reveals that most synoptic systems originate within the Australian monsoon, but at the 315-K level (approximately 700 hPa) a significant proportion of systems are first detected near the east coast of the continent where extratropical Rossby waves are observed to frequently break. The average Australian monsoon weather system propagates from east to west at approximately 6 m s−1 and has a characteristic length scale of 2000 km. Synoptic composite structures show some resemblance to African easterly waves; they move along a midtropospheric (approximately 700 hPa) easterly wind maximum and have peak meridional winds at this level. Composite rainfall shows that rainfall is significantly enhanced ahead (west) of the synoptic PV maximum and suppressed behind. It is estimated that in some parts of northwestern Australia 40%–50% of the summertime rainfall occurs with a tracked monsoon disturbance in the vicinity.

The spatial variability of vertical velocity in an Iceland basin eddy dipole

This paper quantitatively assesses the mesoscale spatial variability in vertical velocity associated with an open ocean eddy dipole. High-resolution, in situ data were collected during a research cruise aboard the NERC research ship RRS Discovery to the Iceland Basin in July/August 2007. A quasi-synoptic SeaSoar spatial survey revealed a southeastward flowing jet with counter-rotating eddies on either side. The anti-cyclonic component was identified as a mode water eddy, characterised by a homogenous core (∼35.5psu and 12°C) centred at a depth of ∼600m. Vertical velocities were calculated by inverting the quasi-geostrophic (QG) Omega equation at each point in a three-dimensional grid encompassing the dipole. The strongest vertical velocities (up to 5mday−1) were found primarily in the central jet between the eddies, as fast flowing water was forced over raised isopycnals associated with the large potential vorticity anomaly of the mode water eddy. Weaker upward (downward) vertical velocity was diagnosed ahead of the cyclonic (mode water) eddy in the direction of propagation, reaching 0.5mday−1 (2.5mday−1) at the depth of maximum potential vorticity (PV) anomaly. The results demonstrate that the mesoscale velocity field cannot be accurately reconstructed from analysis of individual isolated eddy features and that detailed three-dimensional maps of potential vorticity are required to quantify the cumulative effects of their interactions. An examination of potential sources of error associated with the vertical velocity diagnosis is presented, including sampling strategy, quasi-synopticity, sensitivity to interpolation length scale and the unquantified effect of lower boundary conditions. The first three of these errors are quantified as potentially reaching 50%, ∼20% and ∼25% of the calculated vertical velocity, respectively, indicating a potential margin of error in the vertical velocity diagnosis of order one.

Synoptic- and Frontal-Scale Influences on Tropical Transition Events in the Atlantic Basin. Part I: A Six-Case Survey

Abstract The process by which a baroclinic, vertically sheared, extratropical cyclone is transformed into a warm-core, vertically stacked tropical cyclone is known as tropical transition. Six recent tropical transitions of strong extratropical precursors in the subtropical North Atlantic are compared to better understand the manner by which some of the canonical structures and dynamical processes of extratropical cyclones serve to precondition the cyclone for transition. All six transitions resulted from the interaction between a surface baroclinic zone and an upper-level trough. During the extratropical cyclogenesis of each storm, a period of intense near-surface frontogenesis along a bent-back warm front occurred to the northwest of each sea level pressure minimum. Within the resultant circulation, diabatic redistribution of potential vorticity (PV) promoted the growth of a low-level PV maximum near the western end of the warm front. Concurrently, the upper-level PV anomaly associated with each trough was deformed into the treble clef structure characteristic of extratropical occlusion. Thus, by the end of the transitioning process and just prior to its becoming fully tropical, each cyclone was directly beneath a weakened upper-level trough in a column with weak vertical shear and weak thermal contrasts. The presence of convection to the west and southwest of the surface cyclone at the time of frontogenesis and upper-level PV deformation suggests that diabatic heating contributes significantly to the process of tropical transition in a manner that is consistent with its role in extratropical occlusion. Thus, it is suggested that tropical transition is encouraged whenever extratropical occlusion occurs over a sufficiently warm ocean surface.

Effects of Trade-Wind Strength and Direction on the Leeside Circulations and Rainfall of the Island of Hawaii

Abstract The leeside circulations and weather of the island of Hawaii were studied from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) land surface model simulations for eight strong (∼7.9 m s−1) and eight weak (∼5.2 m s−1) trade-wind days and for five days with southeasterly trades (∼7.1 m s−1) during summer 2004. The objective is to investigate the effects of trade-wind strength and directions on the leeside circulations and rainfall and the modification of these effects by the land surface thermal forcing. For the small wake on the lee side of the Kohala Mountains (1700 m, lower than the trade-wind inversion at 2000 m) over northern Hawaii, the hydraulic jump is present with stronger downslope winds and warmer and drier conditions on the lee side and a weaker westerly reversed flow offshore when trades are stronger. In contrast, the westerly reversed flow along the large wake axis off the central Kona leeside coast (behind massive mountains with tops >4000 m) is 1–1.5 m s−1 stronger and 200–300 m deeper with higher moisture content when trades are stronger. Over the Kona slopes, the daytime thermally direct circulation cell is more significant when trades are stronger because of descending airflow aloft with less cloudiness. In the evening, the convergence between the westerly reversed flow offshore along the wake axis and the offshore/katabatic flow in the Kona coastal region is more significant with higher evening rainfall when trades are stronger. During the day, the lee side of the Kohala Mountains is characterized by a reversed flow (∼4 m s−1) merging with sea-breeze circulations along the coast. When trades are stronger, the convergence between the anabatic winds and the descending flow from the upper slopes is greater. However, the simulated cloud water there is less under strong trades because of warmer and drier conditions due to significant adiabatic descent in the lee. At night, when trades are stronger, the combined downslope/katabatic flow prevails without a reversed flow offshore. Under a southeasterly trade-wind flow with a lower trade-wind inversion (1.5 km), the westerly reversed flow is shallower; the adiabatic descent aloft on the southwestern leeside areas is more significant with warmer temperatures (0.5 K), a larger negative potential vorticity maximum [0.2 potential vorticity units (PVU), 1 PVU = 10−6 K m2 s−1 kg−1], and a more pronounced anticyclonic vortex offshore. The westerly reversed flow off the Kona coast shifts northward.

On the Instability of the African Easterly Jet and the Generation of African Waves: Reversals of the Potential Vorticity Gradient

Abstract The relationship between the generation of African easterly waves and instability growing in regions with reversed potential vorticity gradients is studied using a regional climate model. Results indicate that the convective generation of potential vorticity (PV) due to the meridional and vertical gradients of diabatic heating in the upper and lower troposphere causes a vertically elongated PV anomaly on the southern flank of the African easterly jet. This PV maximum at 9°N in the midtroposphere, together with a PV minimum near 15°N at lower levels because of dry convection over the Sahara, reverses the meridional PV gradient between 9° and 15°N, which suggests that the zonal flow may be unstable in this region. Analysis of the seasonal mean Eliassen–Palm flux for African waves indicates that wave energy generated convectively through baroclinic overturning in the upper troposphere propagates downward and triggers barotropic conversions south of the jet and baroclinic conversions below and north of the jet. The barotropic conversion of the jet initiates primarily outside of the region of strengthened reversed potential vorticity (q) gradients, suggesting that this barotropic conversion is a result of convectively induced eddies extracting energy from the zonal flow rather than the release of zonal kinetic energy to the waves in the unstable region. In contrast, the residual barotropic conversion occurs inside the region of reversed q gradients during the waves’ decaying stage when ITCZ convection weakens. The baroclinic instability in the unstable region becomes distinguishable from that due to surface temperature gradients when the surface heat flux is weak, a condition under which the African easterly jet better acts as an internal jet. Thus, this analysis indicates that the shear instability of the jet occurs to sustain the waves at the decaying stage rather than to initiate the waves, since it does not appear strong enough to reenergize the waves.

A Vortex-Based Perspective of Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Formation

Abstract Tropical cyclone formation over the eastern Pacific during 2005 and 2006 was examined using primarily global operational analyses from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. This paper represents a “vortex view” of genesis, adding to previous work on tropical cyclone formation associated with tropical waves. Between 1 July and 30 September during 2005 and 2006, vortices at 900 hPa were tracked and vortex-following diagnostic quantities were computed. Vortices were more abundant during periods of an enhanced “Hadley” circulation with monsoon westerlies around 10°N in the lower troposphere. This zonally confined Hadley circulation was significantly stronger during the genesis of developing vortices. Developing vortices were stronger at the outset, with a deeper potential vorticity maximum, compared to nondeveloping vortices. This implies that developing disturbances were selected early on by favorable synoptic-scale features. The characteristic time-mean reversal of the meridional gradient of absolute vorticity in the lower troposphere was found to nearly vanish when the aggregate contribution of strong vortices was removed from the time-mean vorticity. This finding implies that it is difficult to unambiguously attribute development to a preexisting enhancement of vorticity on the synoptic scale. The time-mean enhancement of cyclonic vorticity primarily results from the accumulated effect of vortices. It is suggested that horizontal deformation in the background state helps distinguish developing vortices from nondevelopers, and also biases the latitude of development poleward of the climatological ITCZ axis.

Potential Vorticity Diagnosis of the Severe Convective Regime. Part III: The Hesston Tornado Outbreak

Abstract Nonlinear balance potential vorticity (PV) inversion is used to diagnose the sensitivity of the severe convective parameter space to the amplitude of a subsynoptic-scale PV anomaly on 13 March 1990, a day on which a significant tornado outbreak impacted the Great Plains. PV surgery is used to both amplify and remove the PV anomaly, and the contemporaneous impact on various convective parameters is subsequently quantified by using piecewise PV inversion to compute the changes in those parameters attributable to each PV alteration. It is found that amplifying the anomaly increases the CAPE by amounts typically ranging from 20% to 30% within the atmospheric columns experiencing the maximum PV increase. Ascent is increased slightly downshear of the PV anomaly, consistent with extant conceptual models governing synoptic-scale forcing for vertical motion. Amplifying the PV anomaly increases deep-layer shear over the southern half of the outbreak region and reduces storm-relative helicity over the northern half, primarily through changes in the estimated storm motion vector. Removing the anomaly produces complementary changes of the opposite sign. Thresholds of several commonly used convective parameters are chosen on the basis of prior empirical studies, and the horizontal displacement of these threshold contours produced by the PV alterations reveals that relatively modest subsynoptic-scale PV changes would not likely change the predominant convective mode during the Hesston outbreak.

African Easterly Waves during 2004—Analysis Using Objective Techniques

Abstract African easterly waves (AEWs) are identified in numerical model analyses using an objective technique based on the 700-hPa streamfunction field. This method has been developed to (i) reduce the amount of manual data interpretation, (ii) reduce the likelihood of unrelated phenomena being identified as AEWs, and (iii) facilitate completely objective comparisons between AEWs with different structures on multiple scales, in order to describe their variability. Results show this method performs well when compared to methods of AEW identification used in previous studies. The objective technique is used to analyze all AEWs that originated over tropical North Africa during July–September (JAS) 2004. Results indicate that the “average” AEW in this period bears a close resemblance to composite structures from previous research. However, there is marked variability in the characteristics and ultimate fate of AEWs. Most AEWs of JAS 2004 are first identified east of the Greenwich meridian and develop as they move westward. Mature structures over the African continent varied, ranging from isolated potential vorticity maxima confined equatorward of the objectively defined African easterly jet to broad cross-jet structures symptomatic of both baroclinic and barotropic growth. As many as 80% of the cases fell into the second category. After leaving the West African coast, 45% of the AEWs in JAS 2004 were associated with tropical cyclogenesis in either the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean basins.

Three-Dimensional Ageostrophic Motion in Mesoscale Vortex Dipoles

Abstract The three-dimensional motion of mesoscale baroclinic dipoles is simulated using a nonhydrostatic Boussinesq numerical model. The initial conditions are two ellipsoidal vortices of positive and negative potential vorticity anomalies. The flow is moderately ageostrophic with a maximum absolute Rossby number equal to 0.71. The trajectory of the dipole is related to the maximum potential vorticity anomaly and size of the vortices. Three cases are considered depending on the curvature of the dipole trajectory: negative, close to zero, and positive. The ageostrophic flow strongly depends on the distance between the ellipsoidal vortices d0. For small d0 the vortices move steadily as a compact dipole, and the vertical velocity w has an octupolar three-dimensional pattern. The horizontal ageostrophic velocity is due to the advective acceleration of the flow, particularly the centripetal acceleration. The speed acceleration is only relatively important at the rear and front parts of the dipole axis, where the flow curvature is small but where the flow confluence and diffluence are, respectively, large. The geostrophy is maximal at the dipole center, on the dipole axis, where both curvature and speed acceleration are minimal. As d0 increases, the dipole self-propagating velocity and the extreme values of |w| decrease, and vortex oscillations highly distort the octupolar pattern of w. In all cases, as is typical of balanced mesoscale geophysical flows, the vertical velocity is related to the advection of vertical vorticity by the horizontal shear velocity uhz · ∇hζ.

Observational Diagnosis and Model Forecast Evaluation of Unforecasted Incipient Precipitation during the 24–25 January 2000 East Coast Cyclone

Abstract Previous research has shown that a lower-tropospheric diabatically generated potential vorticity (PV) maximum associated with an area of incipient precipitation (IP) was critical to the moisture transport north of the PV maximum into the Carolinas and Virginia during the 24–25 January 2000 East Coast cyclone. This feature was almost entirely absent in short-term (e.g., 6–12 h) forecasts from the 0000 UTC 24 January 2000 operational runs of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Mesoscale (NAM, formerly Eta) and Global Forecast System (GFS, formerly AVN) models, even though it occurred over land within and downstream of a region of relatively high data density. Observations and model analyses are used to document the forcing for ascent, moisture, and instability (elevated gravitational and/or symmetric) associated with the IP, and the evolution of the IP formation is documented with radar and satellite imagery with the goal of understanding the fundamental nature of this precipitation feature and the models’ inability to predict it. Results show that the IP formed along a zone of lower-tropospheric frontogenesis in a region of strong synoptic-scale forcing for ascent downstream of an approaching upper trough and jet streak. The atmosphere above the frontal inversion was characterized by a mixture of gravitational conditional instability and conditional symmetric instability over a deep layer, and this instability was likely released when air parcels reached saturation as they ascended the frontal surface. The presence of elevated convection is suggested by numerous surface reports of thunder and the cellular nature of radar echoes in the region. Short-term forecasts from the Eta and AVN models failed to capture the magnitude of the frontogenesis, upper forcing, or elevated instability in the region of IP formation. These findings suggest that errors in the initial condition analyses, particularly in the water vapor field, in conjunction with the inability of model physics schemes to generate the precipitation feature, likely played a role in the operational forecast errors related to inland quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) later in the event. A subsequent study will serve to clarify the role of initial conditions and model physics in the representation of the IP by NWP models.

The Influence of Incipient Latent Heat Release on the Precipitation Distribution of the 24–25 January 2000 U.S. East Coast Cyclone

Abstract The role of a diabatically produced lower-tropospheric potential vorticity (PV) maximum in determining the precipitation distribution of the 24–25 January 2000 U.S. East Coast cyclone is investigated. Operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models performed poorly with this storm, even within 24 h of the event, as they were unable to properly forecast the westward extent of heavy precipitation over the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic. The development of an area of incipient precipitation (IP) around 0600 UTC 24 January over the southeastern United States prior to rapid cyclogenesis was also poorly forecasted by the operational NWP models. It is hypothesized that the lower-tropospheric diabatic PV maximum initially produced by the IP was important to subsequent inland moisture transport over the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic. A PV budget confirms that latent heat release in the midtroposphere associated with the IP led to the initial formation of a PV maximum in the lower troposphere that propagated eastward in association with the IP to the Atlantic coast late on 24 January. The impact of this PV maximum on the westward moisture transport was quantified by piecewise Ertel PV inversion. Results from the inversion show that the balanced flow associated with this evolving cyclonic PV maximum contributed substantially to the onshore moisture flux into the Carolinas and Virginia. The balanced flow associated with the PV anomaly also contributed to quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent in the region. These findings suggest that accurate numerical prediction of the precipitation distribution in this event requires adequate representation of the IP and its associated impacts on the PV distribution.

A Multiscale Numerical Study of Hurricane Andrew (1992). Part VI: Small-Scale Inner-Core Structures and Wind Streaks

Abstract The objectives of Part VI of this series of papers are to (a) simulate the finescale features of Hurricane Andrew (1992) using a cloud-resolving grid length of 2 km, (b) diagnose the formation of small-scale wind streaks, and (c) perform sensitivity experiments of varying surface fluxes on changes in storm inner-core structures and intensity. As compared to observations and a previous 6-km model run, the results show that a higher-resolution explicit simulation could produce significant improvements in the structures and evolution of the inner-core eyewall and spiral rainbands, and in the organization of convection. The eyewall becomes much more compact and symmetric with its width decreased by half, and the radius of maximum wind is reduced by ∼10 to 20 km. A zone of deep and intense potential vorticity (PV) is formed at the edge of the eye. A ring of maximum PV is collocated in regions of maximum upward motion in the eyewall and interacts strongly with the eyewall convection. The convective cor...

Analysis of the Algerian severe weather event in November 2001 and its impact on ozone and nitrogen dioxide distributions

An analysis of the severe weather event in November 2001 over the western Mediterranean is presented focusing on satellite-based trace gas measurements from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) on board the European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-2). This study is supplemented by a synoptic analysis and simulations of the three-dimensional stratospheric chemical transport model ROSE. Arctic air masses moved rapidly from Scandinavia to the Iberian peninsula and were mixed with subtropical air over the still warm Mediterranean Sea. This caused severe thunderstorms and extreme rainfall along the coasts of Morocco and Algeria and later on the Balearic Islands. Associated with the meridional transport an intrusion of stratospheric air below 3 km above sea level was observed. The maximum potential vorticity (PV) derived from UK Meteorological Office analysis data was about 9.3 potential vorticity units (pvu) at 330 K at the equatorward position of 35°N. These very high values went along with remarkably enhanced total ozone levels obtained from GOME backscatter measurements of collocated GOME/ERS-2 overpasses. Further investigation of GOME data showed unusually high levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) above the western Mediterranean. We present a new method to derive the tropospheric content of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) from a combination of satellite measurements and results of a chemical transport model. We show that about two-third of the total atmospheric content of nitrogen dioxide in the observed plume is found in the troposphere, due to lightning activity, advection and vertical transport in the thunderstorms from the planetary boundary layer (PBL) to atmospheric levels above clouds. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0889.2003.00078.x

Vertical distribution of ozone at Marambio, Antarctic Peninsula, during 1987–1999

The vertical distribution of ozone at Marambio (64°S, 56°W) has been studied using ozonesonde measurements for 1990–1999. Total ozone has been studied using Dobson spectrophotometer measurements for 1987–1999. Marambio is well placed to study the Antarctic ozone depletion mechanism because it is frequently located inside, outside, and in the edge region of the polar vortex and sees the early return of sunshine in late winter. The ozone data have been classified according to the location of the polar vortex with respect to Marambio. The vortex edge definition based on potential vorticity (PV) and its gradient has been compared to two other methods. The method used here gives better results than the use of predetermined PV limits or the use of maximum PV gradient only. The Marambio total ozone records have been compared to the 11‐year (1957–1967) record of the nearby Argentine Islands (65°S, 64°W) to estimate long‐term ozone changes over the Antarctic Peninsula. The largest decreases of ozone during 1987–1999 were observed in the lower stratosphere in July–August in the polar vortex edge region, as well as inside the vortex in September–October. Our analysis does not give indications of an ozone recovery so far. The Marambio data show that since the mid‐1990s the magnitude of the seasonal ozone decline inside and in the edge region of the vortex has remained at roughly a constant level. Outside the vortex in September–December, as well as from midsummer to midwinter (January–June), ozone levels have remained practically unchanged during the whole period from 1987 until 1999.

Analysis of the Algerian severe weather event in November 2001 and its impact on ozone and nitrogen dioxide distributions

An analysis of the severe weather event in November 2001 over the western Mediterranean is presented focusing on satellite-based trace gas measurements from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) on board the European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-2). This study is supplemented by a synoptic analysis and simulations of the three-dimensional stratospheric chemical transport model ROSE. Arctic air masses moved rapidly from Scandinavia to the Iberian peninsula and were mixed with subtropical air over the still warm Mediterranean Sea. This caused severe thunderstorms and extreme rainfall along the coasts of Morocco and Algeria and later on the Balearic Islands. Associated with the meridional transport an intrusion of stratospheric air below 3 km above sea level was observed. The maximum potential vorticity (PV) derived from UK Meteorological Office analysis data was about 9.3 potential vorticity units (pvu) at 330Kat the equatorward position of 35°N. These very high values went along with remarkably enhanced total ozone levels obtained from GOME backscatter measurements of collocated GOME/ERS-2 overpasses. Further investigation of GOME data showed unusually high levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) above the western Mediterranean.We present a new method to derive the tropospheric content of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) from a combination of satellite measurements and results of a chemical transport model.We show that about two-third of the total atmospheric content of nitrogen dioxide in the observed plume is found in the troposphere, due to lightning activity, advection and vertical transport in the thunderstorms from the planetary boundary layer (PBL) to atmospheric levels above clouds.

Multi‐sensor synthesis of the mesoscale structure of a cold‐air comma cloud system

AbstractA multiscale study of a cold‐air comma cloud that produced an area of heavy rain and locally severe weather has been undertaken by synthesising data from a research microwave Doppler radar and VHF and UHF Doppler wind profilers, along with routinely available radar‐network, satellite, in situ and mesoscale‐model data. The rain area was generated in the exit region of an upper‐level jet characterised by laminated velocity perturbations. Some of the perturbations were attributable to inertia‐gravity wave activity. The rain area itself is shown to have been composed of a well‐organised set of mesoscale rainbands each being due to a mixture of upright and slantwise convection. The existence of the multiple rainbands may have been related to the multi‐layered atmospheric structure upwind. Each of the rainbands had cold‐frontal and warm‐frontal portions, so as to form a series of mini warm sectors stacked along the axis of the comma cloud at roughly 70 km intervals. The multiple rainbands were accompanied by multiple fingers of overrunning low‐θw air from part of a dry intrusion originating from just below a major tropopause fold. The fold contained an intense potential‐vorticity maximum which appeared to be the focus of the overall system. The operational mesoscale version of the Met. Office's Unified Model, with its 12 km grid, is shown to have resolved many but not all of the key features of the rainbands. It is suggested that further improvements in very‐short‐range forecasting of important local detail could be achieved by further increasing its resolution and assimilating more mesoscale observational data. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society

Cold-Frontal Potential Vorticity Maxima, the Low-Level Jet, and Moisture Transport in Extratropical Cyclones

Abstract An elongated cold-frontal maximum in the lower-tropospheric potential vorticity (PV) field accompanies some midlatitude cyclones. These PV maxima are often of diabatic origin, and are hypothesized to contribute substantially to the strength of the low-level jet (LLJ) and moisture transport in the cyclone warm sector. Diagnosis of a representative cyclone event from the central United States during February 1997 is presented with the goals of (i) elucidating the mechanisms of development and propagation of the cold-frontal PV band, and (ii) clarifying the relation between this PV maximum and the LLJ. A confluent upper trough and modest surface cyclone followed a track from the south-central United States northeastward into southern Ontario between 26 and 28 February 1997, accompanied by flooding and widespread straight-line wind damage. A LLJ, with maximum wind speeds in excess of 35 m s−1, was positioned at the western extremity of the cyclone warm sector, immediately east of an elongated PV maxi...

A Composite Study of the Interactions between Tropical Cyclones and Upper-Tropospheric Troughs

The objective of this study is to understand how interactions with upper-tropospheric troughs affect the intensity of tropical cyclones. The study includes all named Atlantic tropical cyclones between 1985 and 1996. To minimize other factors affecting intensity change, times when storms are over subcritical sea surface temperatures (≤26°C) or near landfall are removed from the sample. A trough interaction is defined to occur when the eddy momentum flux convergence calculated over a 300–600-km radial range is greater than 10 (m s−1) day−1. The trough interaction cases are separated into four composites: (i) favorable superposition [tropical cyclone intensifies with an upper-tropospheric potential vorticity (PV) maximum within 400 km of the tropical cyclone center], (ii) unfavorable superposition, (iii) favorable distant interaction (upper PV maximum between 400 and 1000 km from the tropical cyclone center), and (iv) unfavorable distant interaction. For comparison, two additional composites are created: (v) favorable no trough, and (vi) unfavorable no trough. Tropical cyclones over warm water and away from land are more likely to intensify than weaken after an interaction with an upper-level trough; 78% of superposition cases and 61% of distant interaction cases deepened. In the favorable superposition composite, intensification begins soon after a small-scale upper-tropospheric PV maximum approaches the storm center. As in previous studies, the PV maximum subsequently weakens, most likely due to diabatic heating, and never crosses the center and reverses the deepening. In the favorable distant interaction composite, the upper PV maximum remains well to the west of the tropical cyclone center, and intensification is not due to superposition. Strong upper-level divergence occurs downshear of the center, and an upper-level jet is located poleward of the maximum divergence. The center of the intensifying tropical cyclone is located in the right entrance region of the jet, where upward motion is favored. It is argued that the tropical cyclone and upper-level jet develop in a coupled fashion. In the unfavorable distant interaction composite, weakening is attributed to a slightly larger and stronger upper PV maximum than occurs in the favorable distant interaction composite, which induces about 5 m s−1 more vertical wind shear over the tropical cyclone center. The fairly subtle PV changes that bring about this increase in vertical shear may help account for the difficulty in forecasting tropical cyclone intensity change during distant trough interactions. The no-trough composites have dramatically smaller azimuthal asymmetries than those involving trough interactions. The major distinguishing factor between deepening and filling storms in the no-trough composites is the magnitude of the vertical wind shear.