Maturity Curve Research Articles

Role of natural terroir attributes on Barbera grapevine performance and grape quality in Piemonte region (Italy)

The trial was carried out in the Bersano estate (Nizza Monferrato, Piemonte, Italy) in different vineyards (Generala, Cremosina and Monteolivo) devoted to the production of DOCG Nizza, the newest and highly reputed Barbera denomination. For Bersano, this research provided access to scientific information and tools to valorise its Nizza wines and to characterize and select some sub-zones. The study investigated the effect of natural terroir attributes on vine behaviour and grape composition of cv. Barbera. Conducted in 2017, the tests included phenological phases, vegetative growth, chlorophyll and gas exchange measures. Maturation curves were also developed to better understand the time course of berry ripening, from fruit-set to harvest and statistical relationships were studied. The vineyards presented different climatic and soil conditions which influenced bud burst, shoot growth and plant photosynthesis; concerning soil properties, texture was the main differentiating factor. During the growing season, the berries followed the normal growth pattern, but an extreme drop occurred at harvest due to high diurnal temperatures. Ripening curves showed dissimilarities between the three studied vineyards, i.e. TSS, berry mass, total anthocyanins and total phenols. La Generala presented the best viticulture features regarding the vine performance and grape composition.

Reproductive ecology, spawning potential, and breeding season of blue swimming crab (Portunidae: Portunus pelagicus) in Java Sea, Indonesia

Ernawati T, Sumiono B, Madduppa H. 2017. Reproductive ecology, spawning potential, and breeding season of blue swimming crab (Portunidae: Portunus pelagicus) in Java Sea, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 18: 1705-1713. The blue swimming crab (Portunidae: Portunus pelagicus) is one of the most economically important fisheries species in Indonesia. Little is known about their reproductive ecology and key biological characteristics. This study aimed to investigate population biology and reproductive ecology (Carapace’s width to weight relationship, growth, natural mortality, size at first maturity and at first captured, Spawning Potential Ratio (SPR), and breeding season) of P. pelagicus at six important landing sites around the Java Sea (Jakarta, Cirebon, Demak, Rembang, Sumenep, and Sampit) from January 2014 to January 2015. Monthly data were collected by fishers at each landing sites, with a total of 14,408 individuals being measured. The study found that males were heavier than females and the smallest mean of individuals’ height belonged to Jakarta compared to other locations. The growth parameters varied at the different locations. Crabs could grow up to 100 mm in 10 months with the maximum age being less than three years. The growth rate (K) of more than 1 indicated a fast-growing crustacean with a short lifespan. The lowest carapace width at first capture (Lc) for the BSC was obtained from crabs caught using a bottom gillnet landed in Jakarta, followed by dredged crabs in Cirebon. The mean carapace width at first maturity (Lm) in the Java Sea was 10.6 cm, with the lowest Lm of female crabs being landed in Cirebon and the highest in Sampit. The Spawning Potential Ratio (SPR) ranged from 11% to 24% and the selectivity curve for the BSC fishery at each landing sites is positioned well to the right of the generic maturity curve, except in Demak, suggests that the operation enables almost all crabs to mature and spawn before entering the fishery. The collapsible trap was the most selective gear, with an average catch of 112 mm across at all landing sites, and the least selective was in trawls. Therefore consideration needs to be given to the different gear types used to catch crabs to leave smaller crabs in the water longer to grow to maturity. Considering its fast growth and peak season (February-April and August-October), a short-period is recommended at some sites that have been over-exploited to rebuild a broodstock to support the long-term sustainability of this species.

The Longstaff Schwartz Model of Yield Term Structure and its Expansion

The Longstaff – Schwartz model is considered both in the space of latent state variables and in the space of observable (or estimated) state variables. Analytical expressions for yield curves to maturity and forward curves are obtained in both cases. Based on the analysis of the Longstaff – Schwartz model, an extended version is proposed for an arbitrary number of state variables. Within the framework of this expansion, a method is proposed for obtaining analytical solutions of equations with respect to the functions of the yield term structure, when the initial equations for the dynamics of the short-term interest rate lead to non-linear systems of Riccati equations with respect to these functions, which do not allow an analytical solution to be obtained by known methods. This allows you to obtain analytical expressions for yield curves to maturity and forward interest rate curves. At the same time, the obvious principle is used: if the process of a short-term interest rate is specified, then the expressions for yield curves corresponding to this process do not depend on how the space of state variables of the financial market is described. It is shown that the application of this principle to the extension of the Longstaff – Schwartz model allows one to obtain analytical solutions of a system of nonlinear Riccati equations of arbitrary order, whose analytical methods are not described in the literature. The proposed extension of the Longstaff – Schwartz model is free from the drawback inherent in this model, which consists in the fact that in the transition from latent variables to real observable variables, the domain of definition of these real state variables is limited. In the expansion there is no such effect. Numerical examples are given.

Yield Curves in Two-Factor Vasiiek Models

The paper studies the properties of curves of yield to maturity and forward rates curves for multifactorial and three concrete two-factor Vasicek models with two state variables: • The short-term rate and its average local-in-time value; • The short-term rate and its exponentially smoothed average value; • The Shiu – Yao model. Their comparison is given and a numerical example based on the analysis of real data is given.

Sugars levels of four sugarcane genotypes in different stem portions during the maturation phase.

Maturation is a characteristic of sugarcane plant (Saccharum spp.) and even when grown under the same soil and climate conditions the varieties differ on the maturation curve. Thus, studies that allow establishing maturation curves of different sugarcane genotypes in the local soil and climate may indicate the proper harvesting period to ensure better quality of the raw material. This study aimed to analyze the levels of soluble sugars during the maturation phase and assess the technological and productivity indexes of four irrigated sugarcane genotypes in the region of Rio Largo, Alagoas. The experiment was conducted in randomized blocks in a 4 x 2 x 5 factorial: four genotypes (RB92579, RB98710, RB99395 and RB961003), two stem portions (internodes 1-4 and internodes 5-8) and five seasons (82, 49, 25, 13 and 3 days before harvesting), each treatment with three replications. Internodes 1-4 showed the highest levels of reducing sugars, while the largest accumulation of sucrose and total soluble solids occurred in internodes 5-8. RB99395 genotype showed more stability in the sugar levels during sugarcane maturation, which can indicate early maturation and high agricultural yield.

A review on technology maturity of small scale energy storage technologies

This paper reviews the current status of energy storage technologies which have the higher potential to be applied in small scale energy systems. Small scale energy systems can be categorized as ones that are able to supply energy in various forms for a building, or a small area, or a limited community, or an enterprise; typically, they are end-user systems. Energy storage technologies are classified based on their form of energy stored. A two-step evaluation is proposed for selecting suitable storage technologies for small scale energy systems, including identifying possible technical options, and addressing techno-economic aspects. Firstly, a review on energy storage technologies at small scale level is carried out. Secondly, an assessment of technology readiness level (TRL) is conducted. The TRLs are ranked according to information gathered from literature review. Levels of market maturity of the technologies are addressed by taking into account their market development stages through reviewing published materials. The TRLs and the levels of market maturity are then combined into a technology maturity curve. Additionally, market driving factors are identified by using different stages in product life cycle. The results indicate that lead-acid, micro pumped hydro storage, NaS battery, NiCd battery, flywheel, NaNiCl battery, Li-ion battery, and sensible thermal storage are the most mature technologies for small scale energy systems. In the near future, hydrogen fuel cells, thermal storages using phase change materials and thermochemical materials are expected to become more popular in the energy storage market.

VARIACIÓN INTERANUAL DE LA ESTRUCTURA DE TALLAS Y ASPECTOS REPRODUCTIVOS DEL CAMARÓN PINK (FARFANTEPENAEUS BREVIROSTRIS) EN EL PACÍFICO COLOMBIANO

The fishery of the deep water shrimp is a resource of great economic and social importance for the Colombian Pacific Coast. Farfantepenaeus brevirostris (pink shrimp) is the target resource supporting this fishery; however, reproductive information and the fishing effect on size structure with management implications, has not been documented in recent years. The aim of this study was to analyze the variation in size structure and reproductive aspects of F. brevirostris, therefore 45 hauls were sampled in three onboard fishery monitoring of the industrial trawl fleet per year, between 2009 and 2015. In each haul in situ morphometric characteristics and sexual maturity of 20262 individuals were recorded. 56.2% of individuals collected were females, however the ratio female: male of 1:0.8 was not significant. The size range caught by the fishing fleet did differ between sexes and years, showing that females were larger (50 mm and 200 mm in total length) than males (75 mm to 170 mm). In this regards, females showed the highest mean catch size in 2012 (128.04 mm) and the lowest in 2011 (114.9 mm), while males were larger in 2011 (166.6 mm) and smaller in 2015 (106.3 mm). The maturity function had a different pattern between sexes and constant variability in maturity curves among years, which meant estimating the average size at maturity (TMM) for F. brevirostris based on an average curve of seven years (TMM females = 130.6 mm and TMM males = 83.2 mm). The size structure obtained and maturity curves indicated that females are more susceptible to fishing (between 66% and 94% of immature individuals are harvested). However, catches showed that only 1% to 32% of males are immature, which enables a success reproductive strategy of the population to offset the fishing effect. Better control of gear selectivity and implementation of spatial-temporal fishing closures are suggested for the management and conservation of this resource.

From spreadsheets to sugar content modeling: A data mining approach

Sugarcane mills need sugar content estimates in advance to establish their commercial strategy. To obtain these estimates, mills rely on historical averages or maturation curves. Crop models have also been developed to provide those estimates. Leveraging mill data about fields and sugar content at harvest, we developed empirical models using different data mining techniques along with the RReliefF algorithm for feature selection. The best model was attained with Random Forest with features selected by RReliefF, having a mean absolute error of 2.02kgMg−1. This model outperformed Support Vector Regression and Regression Trees with and without feature selection. Models were also evaluated by the Regression Error Characteristic Curves, which showed that the best model was able to predict 90% of the observations within a precision of 5.40kgMg−1.

Maturation curves of sweet sorghum genotypes

ABSTRACT Sweet sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] stands out as a complementary crop to sugarcane Saccharum spp. for the production of ethanol, since it has juicy stems with directly fermentable sugars. Due to this fact, there is a need for the analysis of sweet sorghum properties in order to meet the agro-industry demand. This work aimed to develop and study the maturation curves of seven sweet sorghum cultivars in ten harvest dates. The results showed a significant difference between cultivars and harvest dates for all parameters analysed (p≤0.01). Regarding the sugar content, the cultivars BRS508, XBWS80147 and CMSX629 showed the highest means for the total reducing sugars (TRS) and recoverable sugar (RS). In the production of ethanol per tonne of biomass (EP), the cultivars BRS508 and CMSX629 presented the best results.

Aplicación del método de la madurez para la estimación del plazo de descimbrado de forjados construidos con sistemas industrializados

This article proposes a methodology for estimating the striking time for reinforced concrete slab floors build with industrial systems. For this, a study of maturity of concrete used in such construction is performed. To make the maturity curve in the laboratory, the methodology described in ASTM C1074 is implemented by calculating the activation energy for the three proposed methods and measuring the thermal history of the concrete at a controlled temperature. Finally, a reinforced concrete slab floor is monitored and the striking time is estimated. It has been observed that the final setting time is not recommended for striking slabs floors, as recommended by the manufacturers of concrete in Colombia. Striking time obtained is higher than the final setting time, having a difference of up to 11 hours at the most critical case.

Maturity method to predict the evolution of the properties of sprayed concrete

The maturity method provides a simple approach for assessing the strength evolution of concrete. Although it is already used in the precast industry, no reported applications with sprayed concrete may be found in the literature. Such concrete presents singular characteristics due to the spraying process and, in some cases, due to the introduction of accelerators that modify the kinetics of cement hydration. Consequently, the traditional equations that relate the evolution of mechanical properties and the maturity index might not apply in this case. The objective of this study is to adapt the maturity method to sprayed concrete. An experimental program was conducted with 24 concrete mixes sprayed in laboratory and tested for the evolution of temperature and compressive strength. An alternative equation was proposed to relate the maturity index and the mechanical properties. Subsequently, finite element models were developed to generalize the maturity curves considering the local design parameters.

Reference Curves Estimation Using Conditional Quantile and Radial Basis Function Network with Mass Constraint

This paper focuses on the improvement of reference curves building \(Y=q(X)\) using a fast algorithm, robust against outliers. Our method consists in plugging a radial basis function neural network in the local linear quantile regression estimation proposed by Yu and Jones (QYJ). This neural network (QRBFc) is designed with a constructive algorithm, introducing a constraint on its integral over the input space. After explaining the different models and algorithms, we compare the QYJ and QRBFc estimators with the quantile regression neural network (QRNN) implemented by A. J. Cannon through simulations with a known underlying model using the R software. We observe that the QRBFc estimator reduces the mean absolute deviation error obtained with other estimators by about 16 %, the introduction of the constraint allowing to lower the number of neurons and therefore the computation time. Finally, using a database of 416 electroencephalograms recorded on preterm infants, we compare the QYJ, QRBFc and QRNN models for the building of brain maturation curves which are based on the dependence of the mean duration of interburst intervals (called IBIs—periods of quiescence between periods of normal electrical activity) with the age. The pathological infants represent 12 % of the total population. Denoting by \(S_A\) the set of individuals whose coordinates (age, mean IBI length) are above the \(90~\%\)-quantile curve, the QRBFc network improves by \(16.5~\%\) the number of pathological infants in \(S_A\) compared to QYJ, when QRNN proved to be too unstable.

CANES family health team EMR optimization pilot.

129 Background: While Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) have been widely adopted within primary care, practices are at various stages of maturity in their use. Cancer Care Ontario (CCO) has embarked on an EMR Optimization initiative, in collaboration with primary care providers (PCPs) and OntarioMD. The project is intended to support PCPs in leveraging the functionality in their EMR systems in order to support cancer screening through the development of training guides and tools. Working with the CANES Family Health Team (FHT), CCO is piloting the usefulness and effectiveness of these tools in meeting these objectives and using the results to inform how to support provincial pilots. Methods: The EMR Optimization guides and tools provide practices with training on five key areas: practice workflows, data discipline, searches, reminders and preventative care summary reports. Working with a multi-disciplinary team at the CANES FHT, CCO provided the team with the EMR Optimization tools and training on these five key areas. The training was supplemented with exercises on topics such as data discipline and practice workflow. The practice team then had opportunities to work with the guides and tools and integrate them into their daily workflow. Results: Preliminary results of an EMR maturity survey show that even after a short period of time, the team has developed an awareness of and a focus on improving data quality through standardization. In addition, they have learned how to leverage the functionality of their EMR system for preventative care purposes. Participant feedback indicates that they found the EMR guide and tip-sheets easy to understand and follow. Conclusions: The CANES pilot has resulted in practice staff moving up the EMR maturity curve and has taught the team how to leverage their EMR to support cancer screening. In addition, the pilot has helped inform CCO’s training strategy and refine the guides and tools. The next steps are to develop self-directed training tools and resources that will support a broader scale pilot to be implemented throughout 14 regions in Ontario.

Optimization approaches to support decision making in the production planning of a citrus company: A Brazilian case study

In this study a frozen concentrated orange juice aggregate production planning is modeled using linear programming to support decision making in the production process of a citrus company with multiple products, stages and periods. Then the model is extended to take into account uncertainty in some model parameters using a robust optimization approach. Besides tactical decisions in the production, blending and storage of juices, the nominal and robust models include the orange harvesting plan, which considers orange maturation curves. The models also include the blending process of different types of juices to match product specifications, for example, using orange acidity to calculate the ratio specification. These planning models take into account a large portion of typical supply chains of frozen concentrated orange juice and a case study was developed in a citrus company, which has different facilities and a worldwide distribution system, similar to other companies in this sector. To solve the models, an algebraic modeling language and a state-of-art optimization software of mathematical programming problems were used. The computational results obtained indicate that these optimization approaches can be useful in real situations.

Information Flows in the Term Structure of Commodity Prices

We apply the concepts of conditional entropy, information transfers and directed graphs to investigate empirically the propagation of price fluctuations across a futures term structure. We focus on price relationships for North American crude oil futures because this key market experienced several structural shocks between 2000 and 2014: financialization (starting in 2003), infrastructure limitations (in 2008-2011) and regulatory changes (in 2012-2014). We find large variations over time in the amount of information shared by contracts with different maturities. Although on average short-dated contracts (up to 6 months) emit more information than backdated ones, a dynamic analysis reveals that, after 2012, similar amounts of information flow backward as flow forward along the futures maturity curve. The mutual information share increased substantially starting in 2004 but fell back sharply in 2012-2014. In the crude oil space, our findings point to a possible re-segmentation of the futures market by maturity in 2012-2014. More broadly, they have implications for the Samuelson effect and raise questions about the causes of market segmentation.

Curva de maturação e estimativa do teor de sólidos solúveis e acidez total em função de graus-dia: uva IAC 138-22 'Máximo'

Devido à crescente importância de uvas para vinho no estado de São Paulo realizou-se a caracterização da curva de maturação da IAC 138-22 'Máximo', enxertada sobre o porta-enxerto IAC 766 Campinas e conduzida no sistema de espaldeira alta em safras de verão e de inverno. Os valores do teor de sólidos solúveis (TSS) foram superiores durante as safras de inverno (17,4 ºBrix a 17,5 ºBrix) em comparação às de verão (14,2 ºBrix a 15,6 ºBrix). A acidez titulável total (ATT) também apresentou maiores valores na safra de inverno. Verificou-se que a relação entre TSS e ATT e o acúmulo de graus-dia a partir do início de maturação (pintor) podem ser descritos com base em equações polinomiais de segunda ordem.

Tradeoffs between bias, robustness, and common sense when choosing selectivity forms

Selectivity, as a combination of gear vulnerability and fish availability, can be modeled in age-structured assessment models with simple functions that range from those that employ a small number of parameters to those that use complex and highly parameterized functions. We conducted simulations across two life history types to test whether allowing more complicated selectivity forms is both estimable and justified when compared to simpler selectivity curves with a lower number of parameters. Operating models were constructed with asymptotic and dome-shaped fishery and survey selectivity and estimation models were evaluated that used a range of complexity in fishery selectivity from the 2-parameter logistic to the highly parameterized double normal function. Results indicated that in general, uncertainty and bias in final year spawning biomass was not consistent across the life history types, the parameterizations employed, or fishing to the left or right side of the maturity curve. For instance, estimating a dome shaped selectivity for the survey when the true selectivity was asymptotic did not result in positive bias in all cases, and, estimating asymptotic fishing selectivity was not always conservative. Overall, we find that more complex selectivity functions and even time-dependent parameterizations of selectivity may be robust for short-lived species, but may not be robust when applied to long-lived species.

Harnessing Data for National Security

Since 9/11, the U.S. government has initiated efforts to enhance its information-sharing capabilities and doubled its investment in counterterrorism, spending nearly $80 billion. Sharing data and conducting analyses across the government’s legacy stovepipes of information is challenging but mandatory to reduce redundancy, increase cost efficiency, and improve national security mission performance. The challenges involved in harnessing big data analytics for a more enlightened approach to national security center on striking the optimal balance between complex opposing forces—opportunity versus risk, collective security versus individual privacy, and innovation versus protection. While the government has made progress in identifying existing data sources and sharing high-level metadata, it is still in the early phases of the maturity curve in terms of enabling access across the federal ecosystem to leverage the valuable analytics that inform evidence-driven decision-making. This paper explores the strategies and frameworks to expedite effectively analyzing and using data to drive national security activities.

A comparison of Demirjian's four dental development methods for forensic age estimation in South Australian sub-adults

The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of Demirjian's four dental development methods for forensic age assessment in a South Australian population. The sample comprised orthopantomograms (OPGs) of 408 sub-adult individuals (211 male; 197 female) with an age range of 4.9–14.5 years. The OPGs were obtained from various dental schools and clinics in urban Adelaide. The following Demirjian methods were evaluated: the original 7-tooth technique; the revised 7-tooth system; the 4-tooth method; and the alternate 4-tooth approach. The left mandibular teeth in each OPG were assessed and rated according to the eight stages (A–H) defined and illustrated in Demirjian et al.5 Differences between chronological and estimated ages were calculated for males and females separately; 95% confidence intervals of mean age differences were calculated and ANOVA used to assess the significance of mean differences.When comparing all four methods there were significant differences overall (and in individual age groups) between mean chronological and estimated age in both sexes. In addition, each method consistently overestimated chronological age. We also demonstrate that the accuracy of the dental age methods evaluated varies in different subsets of an Australian population, a finding that parallels previous research in other global populations. Based on our analyses we conclude that population-specific standards based on dental maturity curves, as opposed to estimated ages, would provide more accurate and statistically robust age estimations.

Small-scale spatial structuring of burrowed sandeels and the catching properties of the dredge

Abstract Johnsen, E., and Harbitz, A. 2013. Small-scale spatial structuring of burrowed sandeels and the catching properties of the dredge – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 379–386. The lesser sandeel (Ammodytes marinus) remains burrowed for long periods in the seabed in sandy areas, and its habitat preference is reflected in a large-scale (10 km) patchy distribution in the North Sea. The small-scale spatial structure of sandeels in the seabed is less known. In this study, it was found that sandeel catches in grabs and dredges fit gamma distributions with a common shape parameter on both a 10 m and a 100 m scale. These spatial models were used to examine the catching properties of the dredge, which, in the new ICES sandeel assessment, is used to estimate recruitment and maturity curves. Analyses of the empirical data and simulations of the dredge and grab catch rates show very low dredge catchability (∼5%), but no length-dependent catchability in the dredge was found. However, analyses of the catch rates of parallel dredge hauls indicated increasing dredge catchability with sandeel density. The observed small-scale patchiness and the low and seemingly density-dependent dredge catchability result in biased abundance estimates with low precision. Therefore, we recommend a joint international effort to develop a more catch-efficient sampling dredge, where the effect of density on catchability is further examined.