This paper focuses on how extreme mass flowrate conditions, i.e. T year events, in district heating systems can be estimated by extreme value analysis, namely the method based on annual maximum values and the peaks over threshold (POT) method. Only a few years of mass flowrate data are available, which is far too short a time to be of any practical use for extreme analysis. However, 42 years of climate data are available, which are used to generate daily mass flow data using an autoregressive external (ARX) model. The simulated mass flow contains uncertainty which must be considered in the analysis. This is not possible using a traditional analysis without some modifications. Furthermore, it is also of interest to consider the uncertainty in the climate. A bootstrap technique is applied in order to answer these questions and a comparison is made of the traditional analysis and the bootstrap approach. The results show that when using the bootstrap method the estimated T year events and their uncertainties are always higher compared to traditional methods, whether based on the annual maximum or the POT method. The difference is, however, quite moderate in most cases. The POT method yields somewhat higher estimates than the annual maximum method. It turns out that the predicted load in severe cold spells is not drastically higher compared to, for example, what has been experienced in Reykjavik over the last ten years when the climate has been quite normal. For instance, the 100 year event is estimated to be approximately 20 per cent higher than the average maximum mass flowrate during the last ten years.
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