Market Fluctuations Research Articles

Asset Allocation and Bank Resilience: China Insights

This research is based on the panel data from the annual reports of Chinese commercial banks for the years 2010-2020. A panel data model is constructed to empirically investigate the influence of commercial banks' asset allocation on financial stability. The study innovatively explores the differences between large-scale banks and general-scale banks in this context, as well as the interaction effects between large-scale banks and their methods of capital application. The findings indicate that: firstly, the higher the proportion of corporate loans in commercial banks, the stronger the stability. With the support of national policies, the operating environment for emerging industries has improved, leading to a reduction in bankruptcy risks and further decreasing the credit risk of related banks, which contributes to the enhancement of banks' financial stability. Additionally, compared to securities investments affected by market fluctuations, corporate loans are less susceptible to significant capital changes, and their risks are primarily determined by the operating conditions of the related enterprises, making them relatively controllable. Secondly, the higher the proportion of personal loans in commercial banks, the stronger the stability. The largest part of personal loans consists of housing mortgage loans, which have a low non-performing loan rate and high quality in China. Therefore, an increase in personal loans helps to enhance the financial stability of banks. Thirdly, large-scale banks exhibit lower financial stability. Due to the redundancy in management personnel in large-scale banks, management costs, adjustment costs, and transaction costs are relatively high. Furthermore, it is worth noting that because large-scale banks hold a significant amount of surplus funds, they are prone to excessive securities investments. Fluctuations in the securities market increase external risks and decrease financial stability.

Optimizing biomass supply chains: A probabilistic approach to managing uncertainties in southwest Nigeria

Efficient and sustainable use of biomass resources is crucial to meet the increasing demand for bio-based products and renewable energy. The biomass supply chain, which includes harvesting, collecting, logistics, storage, and pre-treatment, faces challenges due to uncertainties such as market fluctuations, equipment availability, weather conditions, and transportation constraints. These uncertainties often hinder the optimisation of the supply chain. This research work explores the performance of the biomass supply chain by optimizing operations while accounting for these uncertainties. Nigeria is faced with power issues and there are resources to combat the problem through generation of cleaner energy from biomass. Using mathematical modelling, the study evaluates the impact of uncertainty on key performance areas like feedstock supply, inventory management, transportation efficiency, and processing capacity. The research demonstrates the importance of incorporating uncertainty-aware solutions to minimize risks and improve the flexibility of the biomass supply chain. Sensitivity analyses and case studies shows that the proposed probabilistic modelling approach provides valuable insights into system vulnerabilities and effective strategies for optimizing operations under uncertain conditions. The findings highlight the potential of this approach to improve decision making, resource allocation, and promote sustainable practices in the biomass sector. Ultimately, the study contributes to advancing biomass supply chain management, paving the way for a more resilient and efficient use of bioresources.

Factors influencing employees’ job motivation: A case study of small and medium logistics enterprises in Vietnam

The purpose of this research is to explore the factors influencing employee’s work motivation in Vietnamese SMEs. In the era of globalisation, logistics industry plays an indispensable role and offers significant potential development. However, along with the undeniable development opportunities, small and medium-sized logistics enterprises specializing in providing logistics services are also facing various challenges that stem from market fluctuation, international transporter competition, and other competitive transformations in the digital age. Hence, it is an urgent matter for SMEs and logistics enterprises to attract and retain current skilled staff in order to increase organizations’ productivity and competitiveness since success of the organization depends much upon employees effort and contributions. The author collects and analyzes information from books, newspapers, reports, and publications together with other previous scientific research. These collective data act as the theoretical basis for hypothesis development, questionnaire design, and scale measurements. Based on that, the author gathers data from 332 Vietnamese logistics companies by questionnaire surveys; regression analysis is then used for relationship estimations. The article pointed out five main factors, including employees, leadership, rewards, career promotion, and working conditions that create significant influence on employees’ motivation. The author then suggests various strategies for businesses to boost and improve the motivation of workers in Vietnamese logistics SMEs.

Analyzing the Problems of Agricultural Futures Market in China

The agriculture is a fundamental sector for the development of society, and agricultural products play a key role in the economy. The equilibrium of agricultural product supply and demand is intimately linked to societal steadiness and the welfare of individuals. Consequently, the efficient functioning of the market for agricultural products is vital for economic growth. Agricultural product manufacturing and sales face multiple hazards, such as climatic change, natural disasters, market fluctuations, etc. Agricultural futures serve as a financial tool for the agricultural products market, providing essential hedging and risk management functions. The establishment and development of the agriculture futures market enables farmers and agricultural companies to hedge against agricultural product price fluctuations, reducing business operation risks. This promotes market stability and contributes to the healthy development of the economy. Additionally, investors can participate in the agricultural futures market to obtain investment income through price fluctuations. The agricultural futures market plays a significant role for farmers, agricultural companies, and investors. Therefore, researching and exploring this market is of great theoretical and practical importance and necessity.

Foreign Exchange Rates Prediction Based on Comparative Models

With the development of globalization, fluctuations in the foreign exchange market have the huge potential to influence global economy. Machine Learning technology shows great potential in the field of financial forecasting than traditional statistical methods in recent years. This research selected statistical model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and machine learning models Linear Regression and Long- and Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to make training and testing of historical data on the forex market. Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R-Squared were chosen as evaluation indexes to evaluate the performance of each model and compare their performance in forex exchange rate forecasts. The results show that ARIMA and LSTM could make better predictions than Linear Regression, between which LSTM has higher degree of fitting data. This research provides a detailed analysis comparing the performance of different models in forex exchange rate forecasting whose results are beneficial to guide forex market forecast in practical application and provide reference for future research.

The Buffering Effect of Higher Education Expansion on the Okun’s Law in China

This paper studies the short-run relationship between the labor market and economic fluctuations using China’s province-level data and further investigates how higher education expansion policy influences this relationship. Following Okun’s law framework, we show that besides total employment, labor force participation also responds to economic fluctuations, resulting in a low sensitivity in the unemployment rate. Based on the interacted variable analysis, we also find that economic growth tends to have larger impacts on labor market indicators during economic downturns than upturns. Lastly, we provide novel evidence that higher education expansion buffers the relationship between the labor market and aggregate demand conditions during economic downturns. This paper sheds some light on achieving more inclusive economic growth in emerging economies through education policy.

Key Factors for Financial Market Stability and Policy Response

This paper examines the stability of financial markets, emphasizing their importance in economic systems by enabling efficient capital allocation, risk transfer, and information dissemination. It explores the impact of market volatility on the economy, highlighting wealth effects and financing conditions. The study identifies key factors influencing market stability, including robust regulatory frameworks, transparency, and risk management systems. It also evaluates the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies in mitigating market fluctuations. The paper underscores the need for adaptive policies, analyzing historical and international experiences to provide insights for future stability measures. Finally, it stresses the importance of international cooperation in enhancing global financial market resilience, advocating for shared information, unified regulatory standards, and collaborative efforts among international financial institutions.

The Role of Leadership in Transforming Retail Technology Infrastructure with DevOps

In the fast changing retail technology market, DevOps principles are transforming how firms manage and improve their technological infrastructure. This study examines how leadership may use DevOps to improve retail technology and operations. As retail embraces digital transformation, technological strategies must fit with business goals. This change requires leaders to guide their firms through complicated infrastructure upgrade and operational efficiency. DevOps, which emphasizes communication between development and operations teams, continuous integration and delivery, and automation, has become essential for technological infrastructure agility and efficiency. DevOps benefits retail companies in a competitive world with quick customer behavior and market fluctuations. These include increased deployment frequency, time-to-market, dependability, and scalability. DevOps demands a fundamental change in corporate culture and leadership, not simply new technologies and procedures. This article discusses how successful leadership can promote collaboration, transformation, and DevOps alignment with strategic corporate objectives to achieve this cultural transition. Leadership helps overcome change resistance, foster cross-functional cooperation, and incorporate DevOps into the organization's technology and business operations. Leaders must also address talent shortages, resource limits, and outdated systems that might hinder DevOps rollout.

African and international financial markets interdependencies: Does Covid-19 media coverage make any difference?

This study examines the co-movement and time-varying integration between equity, exchange rate, and international market volatility indices across different time–frequency domains using the wavelet and dynamic conditional correlation-generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) model and BEKK GARCH for selected African countries. First, the findings indicate that the co-movement between equity and exchange rates during the pandemic was exacerbated by global COVID-19 media coverage. The findings indicate that there has been a substantial risk transfer between exchange rates and stock returns during the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a decline in domestic stock returns and subsequent capital outflows, which in turn increased the exchange rate. Given the growing difficulties in diversification, specific information on the volatility of financial market connectedness is required to plan hedging strategies. To explore the influence of global market volatility on Africa’s equity and currency markets, it is crucial to analyse the relationship between regional and global market fluctuations, especially given the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our empirical research demonstrates that the VIX and OVXCL indices play a significant role in transmitting spillovers to currency and equity markets in Africa. This suggests that the sentiment indicators provided by the VIX and OVXCL can be useful in predicting the behaviour of Africa’s currency and equity markets

An Economic Insights of Agricultural Sustainability in the Himalayan Districts of Jammu and Kashmir, India

The agriculture scenario has witnessed a tremendous change after the independence of the Indian subcontinent. It had undergone number of reforms to protect both supply and demand side interests. The food security was ensured by increasing its production and the country has emerged as one of the top producers of number of commodities. The commercialization of agriculture shifted subsistence farming to a more market-oriented approach, where agricultural production is primarily aimed at generating income and participating in the market economy which involves increased scale of production, adopting modern technologies and focusing on cash crops and high – value commodities. However the unscientific use of these resources and indispensable application of inputs has led to several drawbacks like labour migration, shift to monoculture practices, decline in the water table, vulnerabilities in terms of food security during market fluctuations. Creating concerns of sustainability needs an immediate attention. Sustainability is to be assured to ensure food supply and for the balanced economic growth. Agricultural sustainability in Jammu and Kashmir is influenced by various factors. It provides production environment to a number of niche crops including apple, walnut, saffron, vegetables, major agriculture products etc., But its agriculture faces the unique environmental, social and economic challenges, despite known for their rich ecological diversity. Though essential, the urbanization results in the shift of productive land to undesirable use which may lead to ecological implications. This background necessitated a comprehensive attempt to examine the sustainability of agriculture in relationship with various economic, ecological and social indicators with an intention to come up with findings having greater policy implications for long term sustenance of agrarian economy in J&K. Shopian(0.604) ranked first among all the districts in terms of Agricultural sustainability, followed by Jammu(0.598) and Kathua(0.564) and least performing districts were found to be Srinagar(0.406), followed by Ramban(0.413) and Kupwara(0.420). The calculated Composite Sustainability Index helps us to differentiate the districts based on their index value under various categories of the sustainability level.

Volatility in the Equity Stock Market in India from 2019 to 2024: An Empirical Analysis

This research investigates the volatility and fluctuations in the Indian equity stock market from 2019 to 2024, a period characterized by unprecedented global and domestic challenges. The Indian stock market, like many emerging markets, experienced heightened volatility due to a confluence of events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical tensions, economic reforms, and shifts in global financial conditions. The study employs advanced econometric models, including GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) and event study analyses, to capture the time-varying nature of market volatility and to identify the key factors driving these fluctuations. Our findings reveal that the COVID-19 pandemic triggered the most significant spikes in volatility, particularly during the early months of 2020, as uncertainty regarding the pandemic's impact on the economy led to sharp market corrections and investor panic. Additionally, the study highlights the influence of macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth, inflation, and monetary policy changes on market behavior. The paper also explores the role of investor sentiment and market liquidity in exacerbating volatility during crisis periods. The results provide valuable insights into the dynamics of the Indian equity market, offering implications for investors seeking to manage risk and for policymakers aiming to enhance market stability. The study underscores the need for robust risk management strategies and proactive regulatory measures to mitigate the adverse effects of such volatility, especially in an increasingly interconnected global financial environment. Keywords: Equity Stock Market, Volatility, India, COVID-19, Economic Reforms, 2019-2024

A Systematic Review on Impact of Political Crisis and Election on Capital Market Returns

The capital markets worldwide are vastly impacted by market sentiments and investors tend to react and rebalance their portfolios time to time due to such changes in market sentiments from political events. This systematic review examines the impact of political crisis and election on the capital market returns worldwide. It employs a systematic review research method and has gone through 4573 articles, out of which 62 articles published in reputed journals between 1970 and 2023 were considered for review. Of the methodology of the studies reviewed, 43.5% is quantitative, 27.4% is mixed, 17.7% is qualitative, and the rest is conceptual. Researches published in the context of Asian countries contributed 40% of this reviewed study, followed by Europe, Africa, and North America, each with 10%, South America with 3%, Australia with 1%, and allied countries within unions or agreements with 26%. The results show that political crises significantly impact capital market returns in Asia. Studies in North American context indicate that before elections and during political crises, the capital market volatility significantly rises with decreased capital market returns. In Australia, political events cause financial market fluctuation. In Africa, political instability hinders long-term capital accumulation. Additionally, informal political instability in South America directly affects economic growth, while formal instability indirectly affects economic vulnerability. The outcomes of such research hold practical implications for policymakers in formulating portfolio strategies and, therefore, delineate avenues for research exploring the integrated effects of political events on capital market returns by amalgamating trading information from stock exchanges worldwide.

Produced Water from the Oil and Gas Industry as a Resource—South Kuwait as a Case Study

Produced Water (PW) represents the largest waste stream in the oil and gas industry. As a water resource and as a source of valuable minerals such as alkali salts, it is has been highly under-valued, especially in hyper-arid regions. The beneficial use of PW ranges from water reinjection to elevated oil recovery from reservoirs with almost instantaneous returns, to the extraction of minerals from PW, which involves a number of different processes and setups. The economic value of PW-derived end products offers alternative revenue sources, with market fluctuations and conditions different from those of the hydrocarbon market. The end products of water and industrial salt support local industries such as agriculture, reflecting positively on the gross domestic product (GDP). Furthermore, resource extraction from PW of the oil and gas industry helps countries augment their circular economy. In this regard, the economic feasibility of three scenarios—the use of PW for oil recovery, the use of PW as an alternate source of water and industrial salt, and a hybrid process of both—is explored. The results show that there is great potential for water reuse in Enhanced Oil Recovery operations, as well as in the reduction in freshwater consumption for oil- and gas-extraction operations in the state of Kuwait by up to 4.8 percent when PW generated by SK oilfields is considered, and by 42 percent if PW from all oilfields in Kuwait is reused in the same manner.

Product refurbishment in an imperfect production inventory system under carbon regulations: An interval type-2 fuzzy environment

This study develops an imperfect production inventory model focusing on the proper handling of imperfect products and addressing carbon emissions in different stages of a production process. The proposed inventory system consists of three stages: production, screening, and refurbishing. The produced products undergo a screening process, with perfect quality items being delivered to the primary market, while imperfect quality products are routed through a refurbishing process, subsequently sold in the secondary market. It is observed that in the existing literature on refurbished products, all such types of products have been sold at the end of the business period, this means that there is no continuous demand of refurbished product at the remaining time points of the business period which does not support the practical situation in a real business system. In this regards, our main objective in this study is consideration of continuous demand of refurbished products along with perfect ones. Again, we incorporate interval type-2 fuzzy uncertainty in both markets’ demand to better reflect market fluctuations introducing a new defuzzification method. In this framework, we evaluate the effectiveness of two emission regulatory strategies: carbon tax and carbon cap and trade policies. The findings of this study offer valuable insights into various aspects. Notably, our analysis reveals that if the difference between the primary and secondary markets’ demands reduces to a large extent, a negative impact on the profit is observed. It is also shown that an increase in demand for refurbished products allows for a higher permissible rate of imperfections in production. Comparing the outcomes under two emission regulations, we find that the cap and trade policy is beneficial from both economic and environmental perspectives. Additionally, it becomes evident that the manufacturer should carefully consider the duration of each inventory stage, as it leads to a significant increase in overall emissions. Regarding the uncertain nature of the market, it is observed that demand volatility in the secondary market negatively affects the profit.

Performance indicators of the red grouper (Epinephelus morio) fishery along the Yucatan coast, Southeast Mexico

This study assesses the Fishery Performance Indicators (FPI) of the red grouper fishery, currently overexploited, aiming to identify factors for sustainable management and economic growth. Evaluation spans commercial and recreational fishing activities and encompasses output indicators focusing on ecology, economy, and community, through 68 metrics, including measures related to stock abundance, ecosystem impacts (e.g., habitat degradation, bycatch rates), and social aspects (e.g., community participation in management). Input indicators assess enabling conditions such as diseases, water quality, air pollution, biodiversity, etc. Scoring involved reviewing fishery data and information from various sources including scientific literature, technical reports from workshops and meetings, journalistic notes, databases, and unpublished data; with each metric scored according to its specific system. The red grouper fishery exhibits strengths in harvest and community involvement but grapples with stock and ecological concerns. Medium-size fleet perform adequately, yet challenges arise from aging vessels and market fluctuations. Artisanal fleet encounter issues like illegal fishing and economic struggles, while recreational fishing faces stock and ecological worries. Persistent environmental and governance challenges underscore deficiencies in management practices and fishing markets. Enhancing the red grouper fishery requires fair pricing, effective stock management, and sustainability efforts in co-management, fisheries management, and post-harvest processes. Improving gear selectivity is crucial for effective stock management, involving minimizing catches of juvenile red grouper and incidental species. Insufficient bargaining power results in an unfair market and disadvantages for fishermen, leading to losses. To address these issues, it is essential to diversify market channels, stabilize prices, and advocate for fair pricing mechanisms. Empowering fishermen through collective bargaining and regulating credit agreements can ensure fairness. Additionally, policy interventions are necessary to support fishermen and foster a more equitable industry.

Assessing the fiscal implications of changes in critical minerals’ demand in the low-carbon energy transition

This study introduces the Fiscal Revenue Risk Index (FRRI), a novel metric designed to assess the impact of market fluctuations in critical minerals due to the materialization of climate-related transition risks on countries highly dependent on these resources. Focusing on minerals essential for renewable energy technologies, such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and rare earth elements, our analysis evaluates how shifts in global demand might influence government revenues, providing crucial insights for policymakers. The FRRI methodology involves several key steps, including assessing fiscal revenue dependency, estimating price volatility, computing minerals’ production changes for future transition scenarios, and integrating these factors into a weighted risk model. This approach allows the computation of aggregate risk scores across various minerals and scenarios, reflecting a country’s exposure to fiscal risks. The study findings indicate that the demand for critical minerals could grow up to sevenfold over the coming decades, significantly impacting fiscal revenues in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). While these countries stand to benefit from increased exports, they also face challenges related to supply reliability and price volatility. Overall, the FRRI is essential for identifying economic risks and opportunities related to the low-carbon transition in EMDEs.

The spillover and leverage effects and trading volume of FinTech Exchange-Traded Funds

ABSTRACT This paper explores the spillover and leverage effects, as well as trading volume dynamics, of Financial, Technology, and FinTech Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) using ARMA-GARCH and ARMA-EGARCH models. The study indicates that these ETF sectors and the stock market index have significant connections and interdependencies, which can transmit shocks and volatility. Market fluctuations significantly impact the ETF sectors, with negative shocks having a more significant impact on volatility. Furthermore, increased volatility is linked to increased trading activity, which indicates active investor adjustments in uncertain periods. The practical implications of these findings for investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers are aimed at supporting portfolio diversification, risk management, and asset allocation decisions. Understanding the effect of market volatility on trading volumes can help improve trading strategies and liquidity management. The paper increases comprehension of spillover and leverage effects and trading volume in ETFs, enabling stakeholders to make well-informed decisions in the financial markets.

Precision forecasting in perilous times: stock market predictions leveraging google trends and momentum indicators during COVID-19

PurposeThis study explores the complex impact of COVID-19 on India's financial sector, moving beyond simplistic public health vs. economy views. We assess market vulnerabilities and analyze how public sentiment, measured through Google Trends, can predict stock market fluctuations. We propose a novel framework using Google Trends for financial sentiment analysis, aiming to improve understanding and preparedness for future crises.Design/methodology/approachHybrid approach leverages Google Trends as sentiment tool, market data, and momentum indicators like Rate of Change, Average Directional Index and Stochastic Oscillator, to deliver accurate, market insights for informed investment decisions during pandemic.FindingsOur study reveals that the pandemic significantly impacted the Indian financial sector, highlighting its vulnerabilities. Capitalizing on this insight, we built a ground-breaking predictive model with an impressive 98.95% maximum accuracy in forecasting stock market values during such events.Originality/valueTo the best of authors knowledge this model's originality lies in its focus on short-term impact, novel data fusion and methodology, and high accuracy.• Focus on short-term impact: Our model uniquely identifies and quantifies the fleeting effects of COVID-19 on market behavior.• Novel data fusion and framework: A novel framework of sentiment analysis was introduced in the form of Trend Popularity Index. Combining trend popularity index with momentum offers a comprehensive and dynamic approach to predicting market movements during volatile periods.• High predictive accuracy: Achieving the prediction accuracy (98.93%) sets this model apart from existing solutions, making it a valuable tool for informed decision-making.

Maize production scales and the impact of commercialization in the futures market on net operating income in Brazil

Maize is the second most cultivated grain in Brazil, and the crucial step for maize growers is when they have to define the right strategy to sell their maize. The challenge is finding a selling scenario that optimizes profits and reduces risks, when maize growers need to use the barter option, selling maize in exchange for agricultural inputs. Is have to find an appropriate balance between the quantities allocated to the barter, direct sales or future markets alternatives. The objective of this paper was to analyze the scale of maize production and calculate net operating revenue as a result of percentage variations in maize futures trading. Using data from maize growers in the State of São Paulo and estimates of their farms’ size, different scales and percentages of maize production sold in the futures market were used to establish the consequences on net revenues obtained from these marketing alternatives. The growth in net revenue is noticeable in all scenarios, however in those cases in which most of the production was negotiated in future markets presented an increased net operating revenue, while scenarios characterized by increased allocation of production in exchange for agricultural inputs showed a decreased net operating revenue. The growth of net revenue in all scenarios suggests that good negotiation strategies for maize sales not only prevent farmers from market fluctuations but also increase the maize grower's operating revenue.

Analysis of the Relationships between Fluctuation of Chinese Stock Market and Global Markets

Analysis of the Relationships between Fluctuation of Chinese Stock Market and Global Markets