Market Capitalization Weights Research Articles

Model Smart Beta dalam Menyusun Portofolio Optimal a Literature Review

The Theory of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) states that market risk (beta) can generate risk premium for investors. So investors only need to invest in a market portfolio or portfolio based on market capitalization weighting. Smart Beta portfolio is an index-based investment strategy that seeks to obtain superior risk-adjusted returns through transparent techniques and rules-based criteria based on specific factors or attributes that generate investment returns. Combining the Fama French Five Model, Variables Tracking Error and Active Share, this study proposes a Smart Beta model that will be selected from Issuers on the LQ 45 Index to 20 Issuers and compare which Return is better between IDX High Dividend Return 20 and Return from Issuer smart Beta portfolio results.

John Bogle Had It Right: The Benefits of International Diversification Are Limited

Stock index research over long-term periods supports a U-shaped relationship of the total risk to the allocation to foreign stocks (adding foreign equities lowers risk at first then increases it). This study constructs mean–variance efficient frontiers using 28 country exchange-traded funds (ETFs) available to US investors over two periods: 1996–2018 (mostly developed countries) and 2010–2018 (many emerging markets) to determine the optimal global allocation. Over both periods, the US-only ETF had the highest Sharpe ratio. For 1996–2018, the empirical mean–variance “market” portfolio of 17 country ETFs had a 94.5% allocation to the United States, and the minimum-variance portfolio had 56.55% in the United States. Over the 2010–2018 period, the empirical tangent portfolio of 28 country ETFs had a 100% allocation to the United States, and the minimum-variance threshold for efficiency was 52.65%. For both periods, global portfolios based on gross domestic product or market capitalization weights were highly inefficient. Home-country bias may not be a bias at all. Perhaps investors just rationally maximize the return-to-risk trade-off. <b>TOPICS:</b>Wealth management, exchange-traded funds and applications, global markets <b>Key Findings</b> • The empirical “market portfolio” of 28 country ETFs over 2010–2018 shows a 100% allocation to the United States. • The empirical “market portfolio” of 17 country ETFs over 1996–2018 shows a 94.5% allocation to the United States. • Strong US home country bias mean-variance dominates cap- or GDP-weighting in building global index portfolios.

Revisiting Fundamental Indexation: A Deep Dive into Revenue

The capital shift to passive investing is among the most important evolutions in investment management in the last four decades. Striking in its magnitude and relative speed of adoption, the significance for asset management, and investors more broadly, is still not well understood. Those switching to passive investing have predominantly turned to indexing, with broad-based market and asset class indices seeing the vast majority of these inflows. Moreover, indexing has been dominated by a simple market-capitalization weighting mechanism. In this study, we bring new evidence to bear on the optimal weighting of indexing strategies for those wanting broad-based exposure to equities in both the U.S. and abroad. In particular, we document three main findings: (1) along with several other methodologies, revenue weighting has outperformed market-capitalization weighting in both absolute returns and return per-unit-risk over the past 40 years in the U.S., (2) revenue weighting provides more stable exposures to industries over this period, and (3) while the international evidence is more mixed, in developed markets and in the largest emerging market economies, revenue weighting appears to dominate market-cap weighting in terms of return and return per-unit-risk over the recent history through present-day. Given the totality of evidence, revenue weighting appears to be a fitting alternative when considering an allocation to broad indexation approaches.

An alternative fundamental weighting scheme based on enterprise value multiple

Fundamental indexing has been proposed as a semi-active strategy that outperforms classical market-capitalization weighting. This paper proposes an alternative weighting scheme based on the enterprise value multiple (EM) that integrates the market value of equity with debt information. Over the period 1972–2017, the EM-weighted index has lower tracking error and a higher information ratio when compared with a composite fundamental index in US equities. The EM index generates an information ratio of 0.71 which is larger than the composite fundamental index. The EM index also generates significant alpha that exceeds the traditional fundamental index using several asset pricing models. Further tests show that debt information plays an important role in the outperformance of the alternative weighting scheme.

Factor risk premiums and invested capital: calculations with stochastic discount factors

Factor portfolios with value, size, momentum, profitability, and low volatility stocks have historically exhibited high returns after adjusting for market risk. As the weights of these portfolios increase in the stochastic discount factor, the excess returns of these factor strategies should decrease. We compare weights of these factor portfolios in the efficient set relative to which there are no factor risk premiums with market capitalization weights.

Evaluating the Shariah-compliance of equity portfolios: The weighting method matters

The choice of weighting method in constructing an equity portfolio affects not only the financial performance, but also its Shariah-compliance. We show how the implicit bets in market capitalization, fundamental value, equal and low risk weights can affect the individual's perception of Shariah compliance of the financial portfolio. For the universe of Shariah-compliant S&P 500 stocks over the period 1986–2014, we find that the risk-adjusted performance is improved when using the alternative weighting methods compared with the traditional use of market capitalization weighting. The choice of weighting method matters for the Shariah-compliant equity investor, both in terms of compliance with the primary objectives of Shariah investing and in terms of the secondary objective of optimizing the financial performance of the portfolio.

An Index Methodology for Diversifying Business Risk

This article introduces a new passive weighting methodology for diversifying business risk: functional information system (FIS)–based stratified weighting. The FIS-based stratified-weight approach effectively diversifies related business risk (RBR), such as supply chain dynamics, customer groups, product types, or other operational attributes that affect groups of companies that share common earnings drivers. The proposed methodology addresses overconcentrations of business risk that regularly occur in capitalization-weighted or equal-weighted indexes. This approach maintains a diversified weighting of an index’s underlying business risks by allocating constituents to specific RBR groupings, defined using FIS classification, and then fixing the weight of each group via stratification. The motivation behind this methodology is the fact that stock performance is the result of business performance and diversifying business performance is the ultimate goal of a diversified equity index. The authors demonstrate the performance benefit of stratified-weighted versions of the S&P 500 and S&P MidCap 400 indexes over traditional market capitalization weighting and equal weighting, especially following periods of economic stress. They find that FIS-based stratified-weight indexes deliver consistent and significantly higher returns relative to standard capitalization-weighted market indexes and equal-weighted indexes (on average, 389 bps per annum for the S&P 500 and 175 bps per annum for the S&P 500 equal weight), while exhibiting comparable beta and volatility. This article proposes that these results are robust and are not related to the choice of the universe or to particular market conditions.

Common Factors, Information, and Holdings Dispersion*

We derive closed-form solutions for asset prices and portfolio holdings when agents have asset-specific information and/or information about common components that affect many assets. Our solutions are general, encompass existing information structures, and are used to analyze new structures. A given investor’s portfolio can exhibit highly disperse holdings—e.g., portfolio weights may vary significantly from market capitalization weights. Our model also generates large ranges of asset prices due to information asymmetries. We help explain why US investors (e.g.) may underweight German stocks (e.g.) on average, but overweight a particular German stock relative to its market capitalization weight.

Fundamental Indexes As Proxies For Mean-Variance Efficient Portfolios

Mean-variance efficiency was first explained by Markowitz (1952) who derived an efficient frontier comprised of portfolios with the highest expected returns for a given level of risk borne by the investor. The assumed mean-variance efficiency of the market portfolio along with the fact that it is capitalization-weighted underlies the rationale for market indexes being constructed by market capitalization weights (Mar, Bird, Casavecchia and Yeung, 2009). The pioneers of the fundamental index approach to investing, Arnott, Hsu and Moore (2005), however differ, and argue that market capitalization-weighted indexes are not mean-variance efficient due to their price-sensitivity, which leads to the overweighting of overvalued stocks and the underweighting of undervalued stocks, creating a return drag. The authors constructed an index weighted by fundamental determinants of firm value such as earnings, book value and revenue, proving that their fundamentally weighted index causes the return drag inherent in capitalization-weighted indexes to disappear. The aim of this paper is to discuss the evidence for and the arguments against fundamentally-weighted indexes as proxies for mean-variance efficient portfolios. We conclude that since the market cap-weighted index is only mean-variance efficient given the efficiency of the market, whilst the fundamental index incurs higher turnover, and may contain a value bias, its resistance to investor overreaction makes it a more valid mean-variance efficient proxy in an inefficient market.

Risk and Concentration of Portfolios on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange after Currency Reform

An article published in British Journal of Economics, Management & Trade 4(8): 1191-1202, by SCIENCEDOMAIN international in 2014. It deals with Risk and Concentration of Portfolios on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange after Currency Reform.,Aims: The objectives of this study are to assess the level and impact of concentration of portfolios on the ZSE and to determine the number of stocks to be held in a concentrated portfolio to achieve effective risk reduction. Study Design: Portfolio Model. Place and Duration of Study: Zimbabwe, Department of Insurance and Actuarial Science and Department of Finance, between February 2013 and March 2013. Methodology: We analysed the level of concentration of portfolios held on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE). The market capitalization weights and the daily closing prices of 62 stocks in the industrial index for the four-year period form 19 February 2009 to 31 December 2012. Results: The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index and the Roll measure of concentration were employed to analyse the level of concentration of portfolios mimicking the industrial index and it was observed that portfolios held on the ZSE are highly un concentrated with an approximate measure of 14% under the HHI measure as at 31 December 2012. The daily returns over the period were calculated and used to estimate the risk of the portfolio. The findings indicates that stocks in the industrial index of the ZSE have relatively low correlation due to the small difference in risk between equally weighted portfolios with no correlation and equally weighted portfolios with historical correlation. Conclusion: The empirical evidence highlights that an optimal portfolio size averaging 20 to 25 stocks of the Industrial Index stocks will have to be included in order to achieve effective risk reduction.

Dynamic Risk-Based Asset Allocation

In asset allocation, the equal risk contribution (ERC) approach has rapidly gained popularity: portfolio weights are dynamically set such that the asset classes contribute equally to the portfolio risk. As such, the portfolio loads automatically less on the more risky asset and, by diversifying across asset classes, portfolio drawdowns are reduced. When the equity subportfolio is allocated based on market capitalization weights, the ERC portfolio allocation tends to be dominated by the bond allocation. While the resulting portfolio has a low risk, it is - in today's market regime of low interest rates - also characterized by only moderate expected returns. For this reason, American fund managers have advocated to overlay the ERC portfolio with leverage. Such a leveraged risk-diversified portfolio is commonly referred to as a risk-parity strategy. This paper explores two leverage-free alternatives to increase tactically the equity allocation and preserve a completely risk-based asset allocation approach, which dynamically adjusts to the changing risk regimes. The first one consists of replacing the market capitalization-weighted equity index with a low-risk equity index. The second suggestion to increase the equity allocation is to deviate from an equal risk contribution objective to a 60/40 risk allocation strategy. We show that these two modifications increase significantly the weight of the equity portion in the portfolio, while still keeping the total risk of the dynamically rebalanced portfolios at a low level.

Fixed-Income Extension: The Long and Short of Expressing Negative Views

Short-extension strategies are rarely used in fixed-income management, yet the market-capitalization weighting of bond indices and the asymmetrical risk–return profile of bond returns make such a strategy a natural fit, particularly in credit portfolios. Implementing the strategy in credit portfolios is facilitated by the widespread use of credit default swaps and the clear-cut regulatory framework. Investors who use short-extension strategies can expand their portfolio’s efficient frontier and information ratio and not simply leverage their returns.

Does home bias affect firm value? Evidence from holdings of mutual funds worldwide

This study finds strong evidence that home bias affects firm valuation at both country and firm levels. At the country level, increasing the bias of domestic investors toward home equity lowers the market valuation of home equity. At the firm level, firm value increases as the compositions of local equities held by domestic and foreign investors tend toward the firms' global market capitalization weights, but decreases as their weights deviate from global weights. Overall, the evidence is consistent with the optimal global risk-sharing hypothesis that the greater risk sharing between domestic and foreign investors in international capital markets reduces the cost of capital and hence enhances market valuation.

Does Home Bias Affect Firm Value? Evidence from Holdings of Mutual Funds Worldwide

This study finds strong evidence that home bias affects firm valuation at both country and firm levels. Results show that, at the country level, domestic investors increasing weights in countries that they have over-weighted produces a negative impact on market valuation, while foreign investors increasing weights in countries that they have underweighted leads to enhanced market valuation. At the firm level, firm value increases as domestic and foreign investors weight local firms toward the firms' global market capitalization weights, but decreases as their weights deviate from global weights. Overall, the evidence is consistent with the optimal global risk-sharing hypothesis that the greater risk sharing between domestic and foreign investors in international capital markets reduces the cost of capital and hence enhances market valuation.

Estimation of an International Capital Asset Pricing Model with Stocks and Government Bonds

The paper investigates whether US, Japanese and European stock and government bond return indices are jointly priced within a conditional multivariate form of the international Capital asset Pricing Model during the period 1993-2001. It also explores the time variation of the price of market risk within this framework, allowing for a structural change in the prices of market and currency risk. The corresponding conditional optimal portfolio weights are compared with the observed market capitalization weights of the assets. The agreement is found to be better for the stock markets than for the bond markets. Finally, out-of-sample performance of the conditional optimal portfolio is measured relative to the market portfolio of stocks and bonds.

Style Migration and Industry Evolution

This paper investigates whether style migration affects industry evolution. The study documents industry evolution in terms of market weights, returns, and risks over the sample period from 1966 to 2000. The study shows that investment styles migrate in different degrees across different industries over time. In addition, the relation between industry evolution and style migration is neither simple nor static. The paper shows that growth‐value migration has predictability about the industries' returns and changes in volatility. Furthermore, style migration in the industry is mainly driven by existing firms changing their investment styles, not by new entrants to the industry causing style shifts. Both investment theory and its application to investment management critically depend on our understanding of stock return persistence anomalies. The ability to outperform buy‐and‐hold strategies by acquiring past winning stocks and selling past losing stocks, commonly referred to as “individual stock momentum,” remains one of the most puzzling of these anomalies. Moskowitz and Grinblatt (1999) attribute the bulk of the observed momentum in individual stock returns to industry momentum—the tendency for stock return patterns at the industry level to persist. It is well known that there are hot and cold IPO markets, and hot and cold sectors of the economy. Investors may simply herd toward (away from) these hot (cold) industries and sectors, causing price pressure that could create return persistence. The recent attraction to internet stocks is perhaps the latest manifestation of such behavior, which is not unlike a similar pattern biotechnology firms and railroad firms witnessed in 1980s and 1900s, respectively. For the active portfolio manager, rotation among different industries may provide opportunities for portfolio performance enhancement. As a result, understanding both the evolution of industries and the style factors causing cyclical variation in industry returns and risk plays an important role in professional portfolio management. Given the fact that a number of researchers have found consistent differences among the returns of various equity classes, investment styles of size and growth‐value are natural candidates for studying what causes cyclical variation in industry returns and risks. Individual investment styles perform differently during various stages of a cycle of bull market and bear market. For example, small cap stocks outperformed large cap stocks in the 1970s, but large cap stocks outperformed small cap stocks in the 1980s. Growth stocks outperformed value stocks in 1998 while the opposite occurred in 1997. Although it is well documented that the cross‐sectional variation in expected returns can be captured by three factors: market, size, and book‐to‐market, it is not yet clear whether cyclical variations in style attributes, not style returns, influence cross‐sectional variation in expected returns and return variance. In the investment industry, cyclical variation in style attributes is commonly called style migration. Perez‐Quiros and Timmermann (2000) provide a rational suggestion that small firms are most strongly affected by tighter credit market conditions in a recession and thus cyclical variations in style performance result from business cycles. As certain equity classes took off and others fell out of favor, investors overreacted, thereby causing cyclical variations in returns and risks of industries where firms are similarly sensitive to the fundamental shocks. In a recent study of behavioral finance, Barberis and Shleifer (2003) argue that in the presence of switchers who can affect asset prices by moving funds across styles, a style‐level momentum strategy could be successful because good performance by a style attracts switcher flows, which then drive the prices even higher. Analyzing the extent of interaction between style migrations and industry evolution may shed light on understanding the sources of predictable components in industry returns and risk. This paper provides such a contribution to the literature. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section I describes the sample data and summarizes industry evolution in terms of market capitalization weights in the entire market over time. Section II analyzes style migration within each industry. Section III examines the effect of style migration on industry evolution. Section IV concludes.