Margin Debt Research Articles

Debt and debt tax benefit: Evidence from Indonesia debt-to-equity cap reform

This study scrutinizes the effects of Indonesia’s 2016 debt-to-equity cap reform (thin capitalization rule) on capital structure, highlighting the role of debt tax benefits. The reform curtails debt tax benefits and furnishes a quasi-experimental setting, allowing a comparison between firms affected by the reform and those unaffected. Focusing on private firms and employing an entropy balancing weighted difference-in-difference approach, we elucidate that the reform results in a substantial 9.7 percentage point reduction in the debt ratio and a 5.3 percentage point increase in the stock ratio. Additionally, utilizing a pseudo tax cut reform framework combined with an isolated impact of the zero marginal debt tax benefit, we identify an implied tax elasticity of debt around 0.88, contributing to the observed decline in the debt ratio. Notably, smaller firms exhibit a more pronounced response, and the stock ratio undergoes a significant metamorphosis, suggesting the need for nuanced policy adjustments. Overall, the study underscores the profound influence of debt tax benefits in shaping corporate financing decisions.

Outliers in financial time series data: Outliers, margin debt, and economic recession

Outliers in financial time series data are different from that in cross-sectional data in terms of the treatment and the detection. First, outliers in time series can be the focus of analysis itself, such as outliers in margin debt to indicate an overheating market. Second, the outlier detection in time series should be accompanied by decomposition to exclude inherent patterns. Unfortunately, there is a lack of consensus on the best decomposition method. Thus, we propose an ensemble model that combines multiple decomposition methods. Using the approach, we found that the outliers in margin debt are strong predictors of a recession.

REASONS FOR THE GROWTH OF THE US STOCK MARKET DURING THE CRISIS

This paper examines the reasons for the growth of the U.S. stock market in the context of the overvaluation of companies shares. Analysis of the S&P 500 Index's fair value assessment parameters shows an overestimation of the stock market's value. To understand the mechanism of asset price growth, three main indicators of market structure were considered - liquidity, volatility and market depth. Analysis of these indicators has led to an understanding of the processes that affect the value of financial sector assets. The growth of margin debt and the increase in the volume of call options trading in conjunction with the prevailing market conditions contribute to an increase of the U.S. stock market indices capitalization. To understand the systemic risks that can result from such a structure, the graph shows the correlation of indicators that show a direct correlation between volatility, liquidity, and market depth. First of all, the underestimation of systemic risks is due to the current Fed monetary policy. Most market participants rely on the alleged retaliatory action of regulators, which will be implemented immediately in case of emergencies. The problem described in this paper is one of understanding systemic risks, which can undermine the stability of the financial sector if they arise.

PENGARUH NET PROFIT MARGIN, DEBT TO EQUITY RATIO DAN TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP NILAI PERUSAHAAN PT. KALBE FARMA TBK TAHUN 2012-2020

The results of this study indicate that partially net profit margin has no effect on firm value, Debt to equity ratio does not have a positive effect on firm value and interest rates have a significant positive effect on firm value. And simultaneously net profit margin, debt to equity ratio, and interst rates simultaneously. Simultaneously the relationship between net profit margin debt to equity ratio, and interest rates is influential on firm value, and the probability value on the test results is smaller than the significance level, this means that Ho is rejected, H1 is accepted.

MEKANISME HAWALAH DENGAN DANA INFAK DALAM PEMBIAYAAN USAHA SYARI’AH KOTA MOJOKERTO

This article aims to find out the debt transfer agreement in the PUSYAR program. PUSYAR is a program to strengthen UMKM where PUSYAR participants get business capital assistance with a murabahah scheme. The margin from the murabahah is paid by the Mojokerto City Baznas using infaq funds. This research is descriptive qualitative with a case study approach to find out the phenomenon and find the meaning of a case. The results of this study are, the contract in the process flow of the transfer of margin debt from the murabahah contract is in the form of a hawalah contract where BAZNAS (muhal 'alaih) pays the margin debt of PUSYAR participants ( muhil) to the BPRS (muhal).

The Signaling Effect of Margin Debt on Stock Market Returns

The use of margin debt to exacerbate returns for investors is widely used during times of economic growth. It is also used as a tool for investors to take short positions on stocks when a decline in expected. This paper examines the relationship between the use of margin debt, labor market participation rates, Put/Call ratios, and Volatility Index as a signal for possible asset bubbles or market bottoms. By analyzing the amount of existing monthly margin debt, labor market participation rates, Put/Call ratio figures, and Volatility Index from 2003 through the present, we hypothesize that an increase in the labor market participation rate, margin debt, Put/Call ratio, Volatility Index (VIX), and Federal Funds rate will reach an equilibrium that can provide correlation to a stock market retracement. Additionally, we hypothesize that a decrease in the monthly labor participation rate, margin debt, Put/Call ratio, monthly VIX, and Federal Funds rate will reach an equilibrium that will correlate to eventual upward stock market movements. The results of our study found a statistically significant correlation between the S and P 500 directional movement change as a percentage and the amount of margin debt change as a percentage and the VIX monthly change as a percentage. There is no statistically significant correlation between the S and P 500 directional movement change as a percentage and the labor market participation rate, the Put/Call ratio, or the Federal Funds rate as percentage changes month over month. The results are consistent with previous literature related to margin debt and the VIX. Further, our results provide new foundations to work for future research related to signaling related to market-wide risks such as labor market rates, option-based analysis, and central bank policy. Finally, labor-market participation rates reflect timely employment data related to market sentiment and corporate hiring practices. As such, it serves as a better variable in this study than unemployment figures, which are not only lagging indicators but also allow for revision after the initial release. This paper will explore the seminal works with a brief, albeit thorough literature review examining several key concepts in finance, accounting, economics, and investment theory. Next, we will examine various methodologies used in the past that have explored the use of margin debt, Put/Call ratios, volatility, and labor-market participation. Then we will explain the methodology we will use in our empirical examination of data, as well as the sources of our data and rationale for its selection. Finally, analysis of our findings will be included along with a discussion of its impact.

MARGIN-TRADING ACTIVITIES AND FUTURE STOCK RETURNS: NEW EVIDENCE FROM NONLINEAR ANALYSIS

Using multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) and nonlinear Granger causality test, this paper examines the return predictability of margin-trading activities. Results show that the predictive power of margin-trading activities on subsequent stock returns varies with respect to the different aspects of margin trading. In line with previous studies, we find no significant correlation between margin-buying amount and subsequent stock returns. However, the margin-covering amount is negatively associated with subsequent stock returns; and margin debt is positively associated with the future stock returns. In general, our findings suggest that margin traders may have no positive information when they conduct a margin-buying position, but may possess negative information when covering their positions.

Earnings-Based Borrowing Constraints & Corporate Investments in 2007-09 Financial Crisis

Recent work on the debt composition of non-financial firms finds that most of the large firms' debt is cash flow-based with earnings-based borrowing constraints (EBCs), limiting the maximum debt relative to firms' EBITDA. During the 2007-09 crisis, EBCs tightened in the syndicate loan market. Consistent with the reduction in the supply of credit, I find that investments and debt issue of firms with binding EBCs reduce significantly compared to control firms. Furthermore, firms with binding EBCs cut their share repurchase and total payout during the crisis, whereas control firms increase it. In the cross-section, the reduction in investments and the payout is concentrated in the subsample of firms whose marginal debt issue is more likely to be cash flow-based debt.

Nash Bargaining Over Margin Loans to Kelly Gamblers

I derive practical formulas for optimal arrangements between sophisticated stock market investors (continuous-time Kelly gamblers or, more generally, CRRA investors) and the brokers who lend them cash for leveraged bets on a high Sharpe asset (i.e., the market portfolio). Rather than, say, the broker posting a monopoly price for margin loans, the gambler agrees to use a greater quantity of margin debt than he otherwise would in exchange for an interest rate that is lower than the broker would otherwise post. The gambler thereby attains a higher asymptotic capital growth rate and the broker enjoys a greater rate of intermediation profit than would be obtained under non-cooperation. If the threat point represents a complete breakdown of negotiations (resulting in zero margin loans), then we get an elegant rule of thumb: r L * = 3 / 4 r + 1 / 4 ν − σ 2 / 2 , where r is the broker’s cost of funds, ν is the compound-annual growth rate of the market index, and σ is the annual volatility. We show that, regardless of the particular threat point, the gambler will negotiate to size his bets as if he himself could borrow at the broker’s call rate.

Betting against correlation: Testing theories of the low-risk effect

We test whether the low-risk effect is driven by leverage constraints and, thus, risk should be measured using beta versus behavioral effects and, thus, risk should be measured by idiosyncratic risk. Beta depends on volatility and correlation, with only volatility related to idiosyncratic risk. We introduce a new betting against correlation (BAC) factor that is particularly suited to differentiate between leverage constraints and behavioral explanations. BAC produces strong performance in the US and internationally, supporting leverage constraint theories. Similarly, we construct the new factor SMAX to isolate lottery demand, which also produces positive returns. Consistent with both leverage and lottery theories contributing to the low-risk effect, we find that BAC is related to margin debt while idiosyncratic risk factors are related to sentiment.

Margin-trading volatility and stock price crash risk

Previous studies rarely discuss the effect of margin trading on future stock price crash risk, though margin trading is often blamed for destabilizing stock market. We propose three possible mechanisms through which margin trading may affect crash risk. Our empirical results show that neither margin-buying activity nor margin debt is associated with future crash risk, rejecting mechanisms of both “liquidity provision” and “fire sales”. In contrasts, stocks with more margin-trading volatility are predicted to have more crash risk, supporting the view of “arbitrage risk mechanism”. Furthermore, we find that higher margin-trading volatility results in higher overpricing and less information content.

Margin-Trading Volatility and Stock Price Crash Risk

Previous studies rarely discuss the effect of margin trading on future stock price crash risk, though margin trading is often blamed for destabilizing stock market. We propose three possible mechanisms through which margin trading may affect crash risk. Our empirical results show that neither margin-buying activity nor margin debt are associated with future crash risk, rejecting mechanisms of both “liquidity provision” and “fire sales”. In contrasts, stocks with more margin-trading volatility are predicted to have more crash risk, supporting the view of “arbitrage risk mechanism”. Furthermore, we find that higher margin-trading volatility results in higher overpricing and less information content.

Short-Termism and Capital Flows

During the period 2005-2014, S&P 500 firms distributed to shareholders more than $3.95 trillion via stock buybacks and $2.45 trillion via dividends — $6.4 trillion in total. These shareholder payouts amounted to over 93% of the firms' net income. Academics, corporate lawyers, asset managers, and politicians point to such shareholder-payout figures as compelling evidence that “short-termism and “quarterly capitalism are impairing firms' ability to invest, innovate, and provide good wages.We explain why S&P 500 shareholder-payout figures provide a misleadingly incomplete picture of corporate capital flows and the financial capacity of U.S. public firms. Most importantly, they fail to account for offsetting equity issuances by firms. We show that, taking into account issuances, net shareholder payouts by all U.S. public firms during the period 2005-2014 were in fact only about $2.50 trillion, or 33% of their net income. Moreover, much of these net shareholder payouts were offset by net debt issuances, and thus effectively recapitalizations rather than firm-shrinking distributions. After excluding marginal debt capital inflows, net shareholder payouts by public firms during the period 2005-2014 were only about 22% of their net income. In short, S&P 500 shareholder-payout figures are not indicative of actual capital flows in public firms, and thus cannot provide much basis for the claim that short-termism is starving public firms of needed capital. We also offer three other reasons why corporate capital flows are unlikely to pose a problem for the economy.A prior version of this paper was circulated under the title “Short-Termism and Shareholder Payouts: Getting Corporate Capital Flows Right.

Riding the Credit Boom

Research on leverage and asset-price fluctuations focuses on the direct effect of lax bank lending enabling financially-constrained investors to take excessive risks. Ignored are unconstrained investors speculating on higher prices during credit booms. To identify these two effects, we utilize China's staggered liberalization of stock-margin lending from 2010-2015—which encouraged a bank/brokerage-credit-fueled stock-market bubble. The direct effect is a 25 cent increase in a stock's market capitalization for each dollar of margin debt. Unconstrained investors led to an even larger increase in valuations of an additional 32 cents as they speculated on stocks likely to qualify for lending.

Investor sentiment: Does it augment the performance of asset pricing models?

This paper examines whether incorporating various investor sentiment measures in conditional asset pricing models can help to capture the impact of size, value, liquidity, and momentum effects on risk-adjusted returns of U.S. individual stocks. Using monthly data for the period January 1980 to December 2014, we determine the significance of equity fund flow, initial public offering (IPO) first day returns, IPO volume, closed-end fund discount, equity put-call ratio, dividend premium, change in margin debt, and sentiment index, by including them as conditioning information in asset pricing models. Our results show that sentiment augmented asset pricing models significantly capture the impacts of size, value, liquidity, and momentum effects on risk-adjusted returns. In particular, we observe that conditioning beta on equity fund flow, IPO first day return, and put-call ratio capture the predictive power of equity characteristics for all the asset pricing models.

How firms borrow in international bond markets

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate how firms from emerging economies choose among different international bond markets: global, US144A and Eurobond markets. The authors explore if the ranking in regulatory stringency –global bonds have the most stringent regulations and Eurobonds have the most lenient regulations – leads to a segmentation of borrowers.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use a novel data set from emerging economy firms, treating them as consolidated entities. The authors also obtain descriptive evidence and perform univariate non-parametric analyses, conditional and multinomial logit analyses to study firms’ marginal debt choice decisions.FindingsThe authors show that firms with poorer credit quality, less ability to absorb flotation costs and more informational asymmetries issue debt in US144A and Eurobond markets. On the contrary, firms issuing global bonds – subject to full Securities and Exchange Commission requirements – are financially sounder and larger. This exercise also shows that following the global crisis, firms from emerging economies are more likely to tap less regulated debt markets.Originality/valueThis is, to the authors’ knowledge, the first study that examines if the ranking in stringency of regulation – global bonds have the most stringent regulations and Eurobonds have the most lenient regulations – is consistent with an ordinal choice by firms. The authors also explore if this ranking is monotonic in all determinants or there are firm-specific features which make firms unlikely to borrow in a given market. Finally, the authors analyze if there are any changes in the debt-choice behavior of firms after the global financial crisis.

Aggregate Margin Debt and the Divergence of Price from Accounting Fundamentals

AbstractWe examine whether, in the aggregate, margin debt is associated with the divergence of price from accounting fundamentals. We find that investors increase their margin debt following upward price movements away from accounting fundamentals, consistent with these investors being extrapolative in aggregate. We also find evidence that margin debt appears to be linked to temporary overpricing in recent periods, as the aggregate ratio of margin debt to price is reliably associated with negative future returns since at least 1992. Our results are consistent with the theoretical literature that predicts extrapolative traders have a destabilizing effect on market prices, and helps explain why prices diverge from accounting fundamentals.

Discussion of “Aggregate Margin Debt and the Divergence of Price from Accounting Fundamentals”

AbstractBurger and Curtis (2017) is an empirical investigation of whether aggregate margin debt correlates with aggregate stock prices and aggregate accounting‐based fundamentals. While the paper convincingly documents a significant relation: aggregate margin debt is higher when aggregate fundamentals‐to‐price ratios are low, it fails to document why. The documented relation could exist because margin traders are the overly exuberant noise traders that push stock prices higher away from fundamental values; or the documented relation could be spurious, and exist because aggregate margin debt rises with aggregate price levels simply because margin loan capacity increases as aggregate price levels increase. With insufficiently granular data (aggregate margin debt measured monthly), the authors are not able to sort out why the relation exists. Thus, interpretation of the findings documented in this paper is difficult.

Short-Termism and Capital Flows

During the period 2005-2014, S&P 500 firms distributed to shareholders more than $3.95 trillion via stock buybacks and $2.45 trillion via dividends — $6.4 trillion in total. These shareholder payouts amounted to over 93% of the firms' net income. Academics, corporate lawyers, asset managers, and politicians point to such shareholder-payout figures as compelling evidence that “short-termism and “quarterly capitalism are impairing firms' ability to invest, innovate, and provide good wages.We explain why S&P 500 shareholder-payout figures provide a misleadingly incomplete picture of corporate capital flows and the financial capacity of U.S. public firms. Most importantly, they fail to account for offsetting equity issuances by firms. We show that, taking into account issuances, net shareholder payouts by all U.S. public firms during the period 2005-2014 were in fact only about $2.50 trillion, or 33% of their net income. Moreover, much of these net shareholder payouts were offset by net debt issuances, and thus effectively recapitalizations rather than firm-shrinking distributions. After excluding marginal debt capital inflows, net shareholder payouts by public firms during the period 2005-2014 were only about 22% of their net income. In short, S&P 500 shareholder-payout figures are not indicative of actual capital flows in public firms, and thus cannot provide much basis for the claim that short-termism is starving public firms of needed capital. We also offer three other reasons why corporate capital flows are unlikely to pose a problem for the economy.A prior version of this paper was circulated under the title “Short-Termism and Shareholder Payouts: Getting Corporate Capital Flows Right.

IS U.S. TECHNOLOGY SECTOR IN A BUBBLE?

The paper is examines the issue if the U.S. technology sector is in the bubble. Our analysis is based on the study of relative indicators, especially on price-to-earnings ratio. We studied the last two historic bubbles and analyzed the current state on the U.S. stock market. We find that U.S. stock market is heavily overvalued, which can be argued with high values of the relative indicators compared to the historical average. Some of them indicate that market was valued higher only during the Great Depression in 1929 and during the technological bubble in 2000. Remarkably high values are the result of low interest rates and quantitative easing. The current expansive monetary policy is encouraging risky businesses and increasing margin debt. With potential abatement of tax rates and other measures of expansive fiscal politics, stock markets could reach even higher values.