March Current Population Survey Research Articles

Race, Family Structure, and Changing Poverty Among American Children

The link between family structure and the changing economic well-being of American children since 1960 is examined using child records from the 1960, 1970, and 1980 Public Use Microdata Sample, andfrom the 1988 March Current Population Survey. We find that: (1) childpoverty rates would have been one-third less in 1988 iffamily structure had not changed since 1960; (2) changingfamily structure accountedfor nearly 50 percent of the increase in child poverty rates since 1980; (3) changing maternal employment patterns placed significant downward pressure on child poverty from 1960 to 1988, but could not prevent the overall rise in child poverty during the 1980s; (4) racial divergence in family structure since 1960 exacerbated the persistent black-white differences in children's economic status; (5) racial differences in parental work patterns since 1960 acted to reduce racial differences in child poverty; and (6) that changing family-size differentials between poor and nonpoor households exerted upward pressure on child poverty rates, especially among whites. Our results reinforce the view that child poverty and racial inequality cannot be separatedfrom the issue of changing family structure in America.

Merger activity and wage levels in U.S. manufacturing

This study uses micro data from the 1981 March Current Population Survey and incorporates industry merger information from the 1979 FTC Large Mergers and Acquisitions Series to examine the relationship between merger activity and wage levels in U.S. manufacturing. These data sources provide the opportunity to control the wage effect of workers’ differing personal qualities and to allow the investigation of wage levels in five merger categories. The findings suggest that in 1980, employees that work in industries composed of firms formed by horizontal, vertical, and product extension mergers received significantly higher wages than other workers. These results indicate that workers should benefit financially from the recent increase in the number of mergers, other than pure conglomerates.

Demographic Cycles, Cohort Size, and Earnings

This article examines whether position in the demographic cycle is an important factor in determining earnings and earnings growth. Earnings equations for white males are estimated by using March Current Population Survey data. Position in the demographic cycle is captured by including both measures of own cohort size and the size of surrounding cohorts in the estimated earnings equations. Position in the demographic cycle matters. Increases in own cohort size lead to flatter earnings profiles, whereas increases in the size of surrounding cohorts are associated with steeper earnings profiles. The net effect is that those who enter the labor market before or after the peak of the demographic cycle start out with lower earnings but experience faster earnings growth. This pattern is uniform across all schooling groups: high school dropouts, high school graduates, those with some college, and college graduates.

Recent Trends in Insured and Uninsured Unemployment: Is There an Explanation?

This paper explores the recent decline in the fraction of unemployed workers who receive unemployment insurance benefits. Using March Current Population Surveys, we compare the fraction who are potentially eligible for benefits with the fraction who receive them. The decline in insured unemployment is almost entirely due to a decline in the early 1980s in the takeup rate for benefits. We analyze the determinants of the takeup rate, using both aggregated state-level data and micro-data. At least half the decline is due to an increasing share of unemployment in states with lower takeup rates.

Youth, Underemployment, and Property Crime: Differential Effects of Job Availability and Job Quality on Juvenile and Young Adult Arrest Rates

This paper examines the relationship between employment conditions and property-crime arrest rates of male juveniles and young adults, using age-specific state-level data from 1977-1980, compiled from raw arrest data of the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports and from the Census Bureau's annual March Current Population Survey. The analysis is disaggregated by age and utilizes dimensions of underemployment to provide more sensitive indicators for labor market conditions, including measures of job availability (such as unemployment) and job quality (such as low hours and low wages). Controls are included for criminal opportunity and other variables related to crime and the labor market. Labor market effects on arrest rates differ for juveniles and young adults. Availability of employment produces strong effects on juvenile arrest rates--full-time employment is associated with low arrest rates, unemployment with high arrest rates. Low quality of employment (e.g., inadequate pay and hours) is associated with high arrest rates for young adults. We discuss theoretical and policy implications of our findings. (abstract Adapted from Source: American Sociological Review, 1989. Copyright © 1989 by the American Sociological Association) 1970s 1980s Property Crime Employment Factors Unemployment-Crime Link Unemployment Effects Unemployment Factors Delinquency Causes Juvenile Offender Juvenile Delinquency Juvenile Crime Juvenile Male Crime Causes Young Adult Male Crime Male Delinquency Male Offender Adult Crime Adult Male Adult Offender Arrest Rates Offender Arrest 07-02

Earnings and Income Inequality in the United States

This article explores the relationship between technological change and income inequality in the United States since the late 1960s. The analysis focuses primarily on patterns and trends in the dispersion of various distributions of earnings and income during this recent period of rapid technological progress. The authors review relevant literature and perform several empirical analyses using microdata from the March Current Population Surveys from 1968 to 1986. They find little empirical evidence that earnings inequality measured across individual workers has increased since the late 1960s and even less evidence that any changes that have occurred have resulted from the effect of technological change on the demand for labor. On the other hand they find evidence of an increase since the late 1960s in the inequality of total family income measured across families. Moreover much of this increase appears to be due to changes in family composition and labor supply behavior suggesting that the main effects of recent technological change on inequality have been supply-side in nature. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)

GENDER DIFFERENCES IN THE EFFECT OF FAMILY STATUS ON UNDEREMPLOYMENT

Family status is often regarded as an important factor determining female labor force participation as well as outcomes of that participation such as wages and occupational standing. Indeed, employment status can be expected to have implications for the work patterns of both men and women, through timing or scheduling conflicts, and other constraints related to the roles of parent and spouse. In this article the relationship between underemployment and family status is examined in a multivariate framework. Underemployment is measured here as a combination of unemployment, involuntary part‐time work, overeducation, and low wages, using data from the 1972 and 1982 March Current Population Survey. The findings suggest that family status is important for both men and women, although the most salient role for men is that of spouse, while for women the parental role has the strongest effect. Both men and women experience negative work outcomes related to single parenthood.

Those ubiquitous fertility trends: United States, 1945–1979

1970-79 US fertility trends among differnet racial, regional, age, educational, parity, and socioeconomic subgroups in the population were examined, using own children data from the 1976 Survey of Income and Education (SIE) and the March Current Population Surveys (CPS) from 1968-80. In addition, cross-sectional differences in fertility for the subgroups were compared for 1970 and 1976, using multiple regression analysis. 1st, the appropriateness of using fertility rates obtained from own children data was assessed by comparing fertility rates obtained from the SIE data with those derived from vital statistic and census data. The comparative analysis confirmed that the SIE data yielded an accurate estimate of period fertility rates for currently married women, provided the subgroup samples were sufficiently large. CPS fertility estimates were also judged to be accurate if data from 3 adjacent survey years was pooled to increase sample size. Fertility trends for 5 educational groups were assessed separately for 1967-73. During this periold, there was a marked decline in fertility for all 5 groups; for the group with 5-8 years of education the decline was only 14%, but for the other 4 groups, which included women with 9-16 or more years of education, the decline in fertility ranged from 26-29%. In assessing the 1970-76 trends, the sample was restricted to own children, aged 3 years or less, of currently married women, under 40 years of age. Among whites, there was an overall 20% decline in fertility between 1970-76 and an overall fertility increase of about 2% between 1976-79. These trends were observed in all 28 white subgroups. A similar pattern was observed for blacks. There was an overall fertility decline of 24% between 1970-76, and this decline was apparent for all subgroups except women with college degrees. Betwen 1976-79, black fertility rates, unlike white rates, continued to decline, but the rate of decline was only 3%. Furthermore, the decline in almost all the black subgroups was markedly less than in the 1970-76 periold, and for many of the subgroups the trend was reversed and fertility increased. In summary, the fertility trends noted for 1970-79 were pervasive for almost all the subgroups for both blacks and whites; i.e., there was a marked decline in fertility between 1970-76 and than a reversal or slowing down of the decline during the 1976-79 for all black and white subgroups. Cross-sectional fertility differences in the subgroups in 1970 and in 1979 were quite similar, and fertility rates differed markedly for the separate subgroups. These differences do not, of course, explain the pervasive trends observed in the analysis of the fertility rates over time. A similar study assessing fertility trends among subgroups for the early 1940's through the late 1960s also revealed the pervasive nature of period fertility trends. Demographers have not as yet been able to explain these shifts in fertility that cut across all subgroups in the US and which also characterize the period fertility rates in other developed countries. Tables provided information on 1) total fertility rates by educational level and by geographical region for 1945-1975; 2) % change in number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, maternal education, initial parity, geographical region, and husband's income; and 3) mean number of own children less than 3 years of age among women under age 40 by maternal age, education, parity, region, and husband's income.

Cohort Analysis of Recent Trends in Labor Force Participation

The age-period-cohort accounting framework is used to describe labor force participation patterns for the sex-color groups over the interval 1969-1979, using data from the March Current Population Survey. A model with a special type of age-period interaction, in addition to main effects of the three indexing variables, is presented as a means of capturing the transitory period "shocks" which differentially influence participation odds for young and old age groups. Findings show that younger cohorts of nonblack men, nonblack women, and black women have greater "intrinsic" tendencies to participate than older cohorts, while younger cohorts of black men have lesser "intrinsic" tendencies to participate than older cohorts. The results are used to decompose across-time change into a part due to cohort effects and a part due to period effects.