National Water Resources Management Research Articles

Spatial and temporal dynamic zoning of crop water consumption under past and future climate and socioeconomic changes in China

The impacts of multiple changes in climatic and socioeconomic conditions within countries and regions are spatially heterogeneous, thus complicating stringent agricultural water management. Here we developed a framework for the dynamic identification of zone types and provided targeted agricultural water management strategies for each zone in response to global change. Considering China as an example, eight zones of typical major grain crop production prefectures were identified based on an analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics at four levels (agricultural, natural, social, and economic) according to the water footprint of major grain crop production at the prefecture-level for the past 15 years (2004–2018). We then presented the response of China's future zoning landscape for 2030, 2050, and 2080 under three representative scenarios by combining shared socioeconomic paths (SSPs) and representative concentration paths (RCPs). Results show that, by 2080, the national water consumption of the major grain crop production will increase under all scenarios. Half of the prefectures facing function shifts are likely to change from low to high water-consuming zones. Different zonal prefectures react differently under global changes, especially those that are prone to functional transformation, and should pay attention to their instability. Consideration of the water footprint in agricultural zoning is of great importance for national sustainable water resources management. This study proposes a more explicit approach to coping with global change, that is, to propose regionalized and prior agricultural water management strategies and measures for China and beyond.

An extensive spatiotemporal water quality dataset covering four decades (1980–2022) in China

Abstract. Water quality data represent a critical resource for evaluation of the well-being of aquatic ecosystems and assurance of clean water sources for human populations. While the availability of water quality datasets is growing, the absence of a publicly accessible national water quality dataset for both inland and the ocean in China has been notable. To address this issue, we utilized R and Python programming languages to collect, tidy, reorganize, curate, and compile three publicly available datasets, thereby creating an extensive spatiotemporal repository of surface water quality data for China. Distinguished as the most expansive, clean, and easily accessible water quality dataset in China to date, this repository comprised over 330 000 observations encompassing daily (3588), weekly (217 751), and monthly (114 954) records of surface water quality covering the period from 1980 to 2022. It spanned 18 distinct indicators, meticulously gathered at 2384 monitoring sites, which were further categorized as daily (244 sites), weekly (149 sites), and monthly (1991 sites), ranging from inland locations to coastal and oceanic areas. This dataset will support studies relevant to the assessment, modeling, and projection of water quality, ocean biomass, and biodiversity in China, and therefore make substantial contributions to both national and global water resources management. This water quality dataset and supplementary metadata are available for download from the figshare repository at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.22584742 (Lin et al., 2023b).

Validation Model of Water Crisis Management Policy in Iran

The present study is applied in nature and employs a quantitative, descriptive cross-sectional survey method for data collection. The statistical population comprises all experts and active managers associated with the water industry (national water resources management). According to the latest human resources statistics in national water resources management, the population includes 20,000 technical, engineering, and managerial personnel across the country. The sample size for this study was calculated using the Morgan table, resulting in a sample of 391 respondents. The research instrument consists of a 47-item questionnaire developed by Mahdavi Far et al. (2024). The reliability of the research instrument was assessed using Cronbach's alpha, yielding a value of 0.724. The findings from the study indicate that the highest path coefficient pertains to the relationship between strategies and outcomes, with a path coefficient of 0.947. The second highest is the relationship between causal conditions and the core category, with a path coefficient of 0.923. The relationship between contextual conditions and strategies follows, with a path coefficient of 0.879. The fourth highest path coefficient is between intervening conditions and strategies at 0.851, and finally, the core category and strategies have a path coefficient of 0.844. The results of the research demonstrate that causal conditions have a significant positive effect on the core phenomenon (β = 0.923, t = 49.568, p < 0.0001). Therefore, an increase in causal conditions leads to an increase in the core phenomenon. Additionally, contextual factors significantly and positively affect strategies (β = 0.879, t = 47.632, p < 0.001), suggesting that an increase in contextual factors leads to an enhancement in strategies. Intervening conditions also have a significant positive effect on strategies (β = 0.851, t = 41.937, p < 0.001), indicating that these conditions contribute to the reduction in strategies. Furthermore, the core phenomenon significantly and positively influences strategies (β = 0.844, t = 45.177, p < 0.001), suggesting that an increase in the core phenomenon enhances strategies. Finally, strategies significantly and positively affect outcomes or results (β = 0.947, t = 53.941, p < 0.001), indicating that an increase in strategies leads to improved outcomes or results.

Mainstreaming Civic Engagement into Water Supply Management in Kondoa District Council, Tanzania

One of the significant changes made by the Government of Tanzania over the last two decades is mainstreaming of civic engagement mechanisms into water supply management. This instigation is motivated by the belief that civic engagement would contribute to greater voice and oversight of government functions through shared decisions, responsibility, transparency, trust and respect of public input. However, little evidence affirms the capability of citizens to articulate their voice in water service decision-making spaces. It is obvious that citizens’ ability to articulate their voice is associated with the extent to which their voices are mainstreamed in water service decision-making spaces. This study, therefore, examined the extent to which citizens’ voices are mainstreamed in water service decision-makings spaces. A mixed-method approach was used to generate data through survey of 376 households, 4 focus group discussions, 14 in-depth interviews, and field observations. The result shows that the spaces for decision making are moderately open for citizens but they are less capable to influence the pre-determined position of the public officials. There is also a lack of citizens’ readiness to engage with government to some provided responsibilities in National Water Policy of 2002 and National Water Resources Management Act of 2009. All these hold-ups are a result of unclear ownership of water infrastructure and, therefore, citizens assumed it the responsibility of the government alone to deliver and maintain water sources. The author recommended for citizen’s empowerment for creating awareness and capacity interventions for effective water supply management.

A quantitative evaluation of water resource management policies in China based on the PMC index model

Abstract Water policies play a critical role in good water governance and sustainable water development. The evaluation of water policies helps improve the quality of water policy systems and water governance. This study quantitatively evaluated water resource management policies through the policy modeling consistency (PMC) index model and a text-mining method based on national water resource management policy texts produced from 2011 to 2019. This study constructed an evaluation index system based on the water resource management policy's high-frequency words, including 9 first-level variables and 43 second-level variables; furthermore, it compared and analyzed key water resource policies based on the PMC index and PMC surface. The results showed that China's water resource management policies are generally applicable, but it needs to be improved. China's water resource management policies are reasonable in terms of policy nature, policy function, policy priority, and function level, and need to be further improved in terms of policy prescriptions, incentive constraints, policy fields, policy evaluations, and policy priorities. This study thus provided a scientific basis for the optimization of water resource management policies and water governance capacities in China.

Cost-effective management measures for coastal aquifers affected by saltwater intrusion and climate change.

Sustainable management of natural water resources and food security in the face of changing climate conditions is critical to the livelihood of coastal communities. Increasing inundation and saltwater intrusion (SWI) will likely adversely affect agricultural production and the associated beach access for tourism. This study uses an integrated surface-ground water model to introduce a new approach for retardation of SWI that consists of placing aquifer fill materials along the existing shoreline using Coastal Land Reclamation (CLR). The modeling results suggest that the artificial aquifer materials could be designed to decrease SWI by increasing the infiltration area of coastal precipitation, collecting runoffs from the catchment area, and applying treated wastewater or desalinated brackish water-using coastal wave energy to reduce water treatment costs. The SEAWAT model was applied to verify that it correctly addressed Henry's problem and then applied to the Biscayne aquifer, Florida, USA. In this study, to better inform Coastal Aquifer Management (CAM), we developed four modeling scenarios, namely, Physical Surface Barriers (PSB), including the artificial aquifer widths, permeability, and side slopes and recharge. In the base case scenario without artificial aquifer placement, results show that seawater levels would increase aquifer salinity and displace large amounts of presently available fresh groundwater. More specifically, for the Biscayne aquifer, approximately 0.50% of available fresh groundwater will be lost (that is, 41,192 m3) per km of the width of the aquifer considering the increasing seawater level. Furthermore, the results suggest that placing the PSB aquifer with a smaller permeability of <100 m per day at a width of approximately 615 m increases the available fresh groundwater by approximately 45.20 and 43.90% per km of shoreline, respectively. Similarly, decreasing the slope on the aquifer-ocean side and increasing the aquifer recharge will increase freshwater availability by about 43.90 and 44.50% per km of the aquifer. Finally, placing an aquifer fill along the shallow shoreline increases net revenues to the coastal community through increased agricultural production and possibly tourism that offset fill placement and water treatment costs. This study is useful for integrated management of coastal zones by delaying aquifer salinity, protecting fresh groundwater bodies, increasing agricultural lands, supporting surface water supplies by harvesting rainfall and flash flooding, and desalinating saline water using wave energy. Also, the feasibility of freshwater storage and costs for CAM is achieved in this study.

Mapping irrigated croplands in China using a synergetic training sample generating method, machine learning classifier, and Google Earth Engine

Agricultural irrigation is an important vehicle for increasing crop yield, but large-scale irrigation has posed great challenges to global and regional water availability and climate change via altering land–atmosphere interactions. The knowledge of irrigation distribution is essential to understand regional water cycles and guide agricultural management decision-making, but such information is scarce in China. We developed a remote sensing-dominated framework to map irrigated croplands in China at 500 m resolution using a synergetic training sample generating method, machine learning classifier, and a cloud computing platform (Google Earth Engine, GEE). To overcome the challenges of lacking nationwide training samples, we first produced two provisional irrigation maps by fusing statistics and MODIS-derived annual peak greenness indices. The two provisional irrigation maps were then spatially filtered with an existing irrigation product (GRIPC) to construct the initial training sample pool. Next, to enhance the robustness and cover more irrigated candidates, we screened and introduced the irrigated croplands in three land use/cover maps (CCI-LC, GLC_FCS, and NLCD) to supplement the training data pool. Afterward, we utilized locally adaptive random forest classifiers and data cubes (MODIS-derived spectral indices, climatic and topographic variables) to generate irrigation maps in each province of China on GEE. The resulting map outperformed other current irrigation maps with an overall accuracy of 79.2% . The map also showed a reasonable consistency with statistical data at the province and prefecture levels, with the determination coefficient (R2) of 0.89 and 0.77, respectively. In total, we identified 87.04 million hectares of irrigated croplands in mainland China in 2015. Using the resulting map and water use statistics, we found a high correlation between irrigation area and agricultural water use in Northwest, Northeast, and South China, and a low correlation in North China Plain. This map is expected to serve national water resource management and assist decision-making in improving agricultural adaption to climate change.

What Governance Failures Reveal about Water Resources Management in a Municipality of Brazil

Humans have historically chosen to develop their cities close to rivers due to the need for water and food security. In Brazil, water security represents a growing challenge, despite advances in the National Water Resources Management System. While municipalities are responsible for integrating the various public policies that impact urban rivers, such as the environment, basic sanitation, and urban planning, only states and the federal government, along with watershed committees, have a formal role in the National Water Resources Management System. The goal of this paper is to assess the Brazilian water governance system from the perspective of municipalities. The OECD water governance framework is applied to a medium-sized Brazilian municipality (c. 200,000 inhabitants), Itabuna, Bahia state, through perception-based and objective data. Studies dealing with water governance do not address this reality, despite representing more than 90% Brazilian municipalities and approximately half of the country’s population. Several water governance failures were identified, such as connections between administrative and political failures, which highlight the tragic consequences of hydrological issues in this region. Developing integrated water resources’ management, as fixed in national and state laws, depends on the effective participation of the municipality. This study discusses the importance of water governance at the municipal scale.

Water Poverty Indices of three rural communities in the southern Caribbean

Abstract The Caribbean region experiences significant water supply challenges, especially for 30% of the population who live in rural areas. Improved water resource management in this region would enhance water availability for its population, but this requires reliable quantitative data to guide relevant policy decisions. The Water Poverty Index (WPI) and its components can be valuable sources of such data but there has not been any recent calculation of this index for countries or communities in the Caribbean. In this study, the WPI was determined for three rural communities in the southern Caribbean: Carriacou, Grenada; Nariva, Trinidad and Tobago; and Speightstown, Barbados. Using data collected from 606 surveys of households as well as published statistics, the overall WPI scores were calculated to be 65/100 for Carriacou, 65/100 for Nariva and 70/100 for Speightstown, which all fell in the ‘medium-low’ and ‘low’ water poverty scale respectively. Resource and Use components had the lowest scores and thus require urgent attention. There were no statistically significant differences across the major components, which demonstrates the common water-related challenges in these Small Island Developing States, despite geographical diversity. This research will aid in defining national water resource management policies in rural communities of the Caribbean.

Groundwater Resources Management in Lake Awassa Catchment, Southern Ethiopia

The study was conducted in Lake Awassa catchment 275 km south of Addis Ababa to assess the problems that arise as a result of improper development and utilization of groundwater resources and to recommend management options by giving particular emphasis to investigate current status of groundwater structures and management practices. The hydrology of the basin was characterized by land use, soil, rainfall, temperature, evapotranspiration, wind speed, sunshine hours, relative humidity and runoff. In order to determine the basic hydrologic parameters, meteorological data was collected from the stations in and around the lake Awassa catchment. The amount of groundwater that is currently being used for domestic and non-domestic purposes in the basin is 17.8 million cubic meter. The net total amount of water that is actually available to recharge the groundwater circulation within the Lake Awassa catchment is 218.79 million cubic meter. Currently, 233 groundwater structures are found developed in different parts of the study area. Out of these 49 are non functional. Among the developed groundwater structures dominantly nonfunctional is hand dug wells, which comprises 29.55% of the total constructed hand dug wells. The hand dug wells are followed by shallow wells (25%), springs (19.75%) and boreholes (10%). Poor management of the constructed schemes, lack of awareness at community level, spare part problems, and construction problems are the major causes of the failure of the groundwater structures. Utilization of groundwater in the functional ones is not conducted on the basis of recommended values that were set based on the hydrogeological parameters during the development of the structures. Discharging hours are increased to satisfy the water demands of different users. Currently, groundwater is developed without groundwater management plan in uncoordinated manner by governmental and nongovernmental organizations and also privately.At present, the amount of natural recharge in the basin is more than the abstraction. The problem is not lack of water; it is rather absence of or poor management. This is mainly due to lack of efficient groundwater management organization at sub-basin level. Management of groundwater resources is crucial for better development and optimum utilization of the groundwater resources of the basin and to avoid any adverse effects. Therefore it is necessary to establish an efficient groundwater management organization that can conduct detailed groundwater management studies of the basin, follow the objectives of the national water resources management policy and also effectively implement. Keywords: Aquifer ; Ethiopia;Groundwater management; Hydrogeology;Lake Awsasa DOI: 10.7176/JRDM/75-02 Publication date: May 31 st 2021

Lei das águas no Estado do Pará, Brasil: avanços, entraves e reflexões

In Brazil, Law No. 9,433/2007 was responsible for establishing the National Water Resources Policy and the National Water Resources Management System, with the aim of maintaining the quality and quantity of water resources, reducing conflicts due to multiple water uses and increasing the participation of civil society in decision-making on issues related to this resource. In 2001, it was the turn of Pará State to institute its own water resources legislation through State Law No. 6,381/2001, in consonance with federal legislation. The main purpose of this study was to analyze the institution of the Water Law in the State of Pará and to investigate how far the State has managed to implement the entities that make up its State Water Resources Management System and its management instruments. For this reason, a documental research was carried out in the record and resolutions of the State Council of Water Resources of Pará, a advisory, normative and deliberative body and occupant of the highest position within the state system, on the SEMAS website that contains in the Management Body of the state's water resources policy and in academic papers related to this subject. The results reveal that, even after almost two decades of this legislation, not all entities in the system are instituted, as well as some management instruments were not elaborated, particularly the State Water Resources Plan given its degree of importance.

Groundwater Development and Management Practices in Lake Awassa Catchment, Southern Ethiopia

The amount of groundwater that is currently being used for domestic and non-domestic purposes in the basin is 17.8 million cubic meter. The net total amount of water that is actually available to recharge the groundwater circulation within the Lake Awassa catchment is 218.79 million cubic meter. Currently, 233 groundwater structures are found developed in different parts of the study area. Out of these 49 are non functional. Among the developed groundwater structures dominantly nonfunctional is hand dug wells, which comprises 29.55% of the total constructed hand dug wells. The hand dug wells are followed by shallow wells (25%), springs (19.75%) and boreholes (10%). Poor management of the constructed schemes, lack of awareness at community level, spare part problems, and construction problems are the major causes of the failure of the groundwater structures. Utilization of groundwater in the functional ones is not conducted on the basis of recommended values that were set based on the hydrogeological parameters during the development of the structures. Discharging hours are increased to satisfy the water demands of different users. Currently, groundwater is developed without groundwater management plan in uncoordinated manner by governmental and nongovernmental organizations and also privately.At present, the amount of natural recharge in the basin is more than the abstraction. The problem is not lack of water; it is rather absence of or poor management. This is mainly due to lack of efficient groundwater management organization at sub-basin level. Management of groundwater resources is crucial for better development and optimum utilization of the groundwater resources of the basin and to avoid any adverse effects. Therefore it is necessary to establish an efficient groundwater management organization that can conduct detailed groundwater management studies of the basin, follow the objectives of the national water resources management policy and also effectively implement. Keywords: Aquifer ; Ethiopia;Groundwater management; Hydrogeology;Lake Awsasa DOI: 10.7176/JEES/10-12-01 Publication date: December 31 st 2020

ACPAR: A framework for linking national water and food security management with global conditions

In this paper, we identify cropping pattern as a major policy variable. A framework for the generation of alternative cropping patterns (ACPs) in arid regions, called ACPAR, is developed for assessing water and food security. ACPAR is applied to the case study of Egypt, for which a simulation-based national water, food, and trade (NWFT) model exists. ACPAR is formulated to minimize the agricultural water demand, food imports, and the economic cost of imports as well as maximize the national gross margin of agriculture. These four objective functions are optimized to generate ACPs that have different tradeoffs. Additional filtering criteria are employed to account for fertilizer use as well as the stability of the set objectives. The ACPs are generated and evaluated for the baseline period (1986-2013) as well as under future conditions up to the year 2050. The results show that ACPAR is useful for proposing ACPs that could have worked better for Egypt during the baseline period, but also ACPs that outperform the historical cropping pattern in each objective function for wide future conditions. Some of the generated future ACPs can perform well regarding irrigation water use and cost of imports, without compromising food self-sufficiency. The quantified tradeoffs between the identified objective functions are the key contributions of this study, representing important information for policymakers to aid in water resources planning. The ACPAR framework connects national water resource management decisions to global food production, consumption, and trade dynamics.

International approaches to solving the water problem in the CIS countries (on the example of the Republic of Azerbaijan)

In conditions when the water factor is increasingly affecting the economic development of the CIS countries, the adoption and implementation of modern technological and organizational and managerial decisions on the most effective use of water become an urgent, imperative necessity. This is all the more so because, on the one hand, the decarbonization recommended by the UN cannot be considered as the main means of solving the water problem in the economies of the Commonwealth States. On the other hand, reducing the water capacity of these economies can both accelerate their technological renewal, and become a factor in reducing the negative climate changes occurring in the post-Soviet-Eurasian area. Starting from these considerations, the authors of the article use the example of Azerbaijan — a country with limited water resources — to identify ways to modernize the water management system. This management reform is designed to address aspects of the water problem related not only to climate change, water pollution and large losses during delivery to consumers, but also to the water management policies of neighboring States located upstream of the main rivers. According to the author’s final conclusion, the experience of Azerbaijan shows a very significant role of various formats of international cooperation in the creation of effective national integrated water resources management systems in the CIS countries.

Assessment of environmental risk of groundwater quality deterioration within Siversky Donets river basin

An adaptation of the national water resources management system in accordance with the requirements of European legislation creates the legislative basis for reforms im- plementation in the field of monitoring and water use. The basin management principle started to be applied, according to which surface and groundwater arrays are the water resources management units. The preliminary groundwater array status assessment (both quantitative and qualitative) is a necessary procedure that enforces the development of appropriate monitoring program and measures elaboration in order to improve groundwater ecological status. This study tested a methodology of groundwater deterioration risk assessment as a tool for previous groundwater array cological status estimation. The research provides an approbation of the methodology in relation to groundwater arrays identified and delineated within Siversky Donets river basin (that covers Kharkiv, Donetsk and Lugansk regions). Surface water and groundwater are affected by significant anthropogenic pressures in form of pollution from point sources of heavy industry facilities. A risk model comprises groundwater vulnerability map and simulated model of anthropogenic pressure magnitude distribution reflecting the impact extent of the main sources of groundwater pollution. Vulnerability map was developed using the tool of input factors weight index estimation. Authors considered the following factors as determining – soils characteristic, aeration zone characteristics, geological environment of groundwater arrays of Cenozoic-Mesozoic group. The pollution load index was calculated. Input data for calculation are concentrations of hazardous substances (metals, semimetals, halogens and nitrates and phenol compounds) measured in groundwater samples during the 2017 monitoring year period. The results of the value interpolation of calculated pollution load index reproduce the focal (point) nature of groundwater pollution and indicates the significant groundwater pollution of Quaternary and Upper Cretaceous, both Carboniferous aquifers and corresponding groundwater arrays. A logical matrix is created on the basis of a combination of pres- sure magnitudes and vulnerability classes. The area of each class of risk is calculated within groundwater arrays with zonal statistic technique. Consequently, each groundwater array is assigned with preliminary estimated risk category. Created model enables to per- form previous groundwater array status assessment. The proposed model expected to be more useful after the data on pollution from diffuse sources obtaining and its validation after the first stage of surveillance monitoring realization.

Analysis and Development Forecast of Water Resources in China

Based on the background of water shortage in Ningxia region, this paper studies the current situation and development prediction of water resources in China and establishes a regression analysis mode. Firstly, the current situation and major problems of water resources development and utilization in China were analyzed with Excel. Secondly, the regression model is established to predict the total national water consumption in 2020 and 2030, the results of the model prediction are compared with the national goals of 2020 and 2030. Finally, the ARIMA model was established by SPSS software to predict the time series and obtain the national and provincial water resource management and control and development trends in 2020 and 2030.

Climate change, water-related disasters, flood control and rainfall forecasting: a case study of the São Francisco River, Brazil

Abstract Because of climate change, the frequency, intensity and/or duration of extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, storms and extreme temperatures is increasing. These events are often related to loss of property, money and life, especially in poor and developing countries where there is no or poor disaster management due to social and financial difficulties or due to a lack of synergy between the mitigation actions taken. Negative impacts can be reduced and losses can be better handled with proper water management techniques. However, these should not be handled solely with traditional management. The actual problem cannot be over simplified as merely a question of coping with resources availability and demand. Therefore, the present paper aims to summarize advances in weather forecasting and reservoir operation in the Upper São Francisco River, strategic to Brazil because it provides water to the semi-arid region and energy for economically thriving Brazilian regions. Moreover, it discusses challenges, opportunities and improvements needed to implement these advances in the current national integrated water resources management. This is mainly focused on water-related disaster mitigation.

Urgensi Perubahan Paradigma Hukum dalam Pengelolaan Sumber Daya Air Nasional

This paper discusses operational and legal paradigm aspects of water resources management in· Indonesia. Principles and concepts of anthropocentrims and holism are presented. Issues discussed are legal idiology and legal paradigm of national water resources management. The paper concludes with an outlook on the needs for development of legal paradigm and community-based water resources management.

Nigerian briefing: how engineers can help secure a sustainable economy

Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, has declining natural resources resulting in an unsustainable loss of personal inclusive wealth driven by exporting gas and crude oil for fuel, a landscape desiccated from the legacy of too many large dams, relentless population growth and culturally determined short-termism. Improving outcomes requires well-focused resources management and physical planning. These tasks require well-directed efforts from engineers informed by analysis of evidence of natural resources, human resources and manufacturing. This analysis, practised by economists developing Dasgupta's Inclusive Wealth Index concept, provides direction for achieving sustainability. Providing this direction is the nexus where the planning and management of Nigerian issues with energy (electricity), water (large dams) and land (agriculture) meet. These tasks require engineering inputs. Measures considered include adding value to mineral oil wealth by investment in petrochemicals production rather than exporting crude oil; management of natural water resources to realise the agricultural value of floodplains rather than wasteful water storage for failed irrigation projects; and success with generating and distributing electricity sufficient for economic activity in urban centres where half the people live. Engineers can provide better outcomes for Nigerian people, but there are some important culturally determined constraints to be addressed.

Navigating the water trilemma: a strategic assessment of long‐term national water resource management options for Great Britain

AbstractPotential increases in water demand, alongside uncertainties in water availability due to climate change, mean that Britain's water supply system could become increasingly stressed over the coming decades. Along with the need for secure water supplies, we must ensure that the supply is affordable and that sufficient water is available to safeguard the natural environment. Meeting these three separate goals of security, affordability and sustainability, with their inevitable trade‐offs, can be termed the ‘water trilemma’. In this novel approach we simulate projections of river flows under population and climate change by using an aggregated national water resource model to test potential policies to manage demand and investments in water supply infrastructure in order to assess Britain's ability to meet its needs into the future. The results indicate that a balanced approach which allows for some inter‐basin water transfers while also engaging local solutions, including water re‐use, combined with scalable actions for demand management and leakage reduction, will best enable Britain to navigate this water trilemma.