Major Asian Research Articles

How Does the Past Shape the Present? The EU Policy towards Myanmar in Inter-Regional Context

The EU is active in Southeast Asia to enhance its profile as a major ASEAN partner. But in order to be perceived as a full-fledged partner, the EU has to convince ASEAN countries of its changing style and tone. This is a difficult endeavour since the ‘Burmese experience’ has produced much unease and a lasting irritation on the ASEAN side.After 20 years of sanctions escalation and clumsy declarations on Burma/Myanmar, the EU diplomacy has produced mixed results: on the one hand, it has enhanced its credentials as a global promoter of democracy and human rights, but on the other hand, it has done so in such a controversial way that its credibility and influence have been challenged. Vis-a-vis both ASEAN and Myanmar, it has produced widespread doubt on the EU capacity to become an actor of political influence in Southeast Asia, a doubt that is often underestimated by European circles.The recent evolution, both from regional and inter-regional angles, offers the EU a window of opportunity for new policy orientations as a path to regain legitimacy in Southeast Asia.

Comment on “Global Financial Crisis and ASEAN: Fiscal Policy Response in the Case of Thailand and Indonesia”

Sangsubhan and Basri (2012) provide a detailed account of fiscal measures implemented by Thailand and Indonesia in response to the global financial crisis (GFC), and analyze the effectiveness of expenditure versus revenue-based measures in delivering GDP growth. They find that while the GFC's impact differed in each country, both countries entered the crisis with sufficient fiscal space, providing room for fiscal support for their respective economies. In Thailand, while targeted measures on expenditure were deemed effective, they were untimely, particularly when compared to quasi-fiscal measures such as credit expansion via specialized financial institutions. In Indonesia, in an environment characterized by lags in disbursement, tax cuts were deemed more effective than expenditure. However, their effectiveness diminishes when the tax cuts are targeted at the highest income earners or corporates. Sangsubhan and Basri conclude by noting the risk of a new normal of ‘stimulus expectations’ built into budgets which prevent fiscal balances from returning to their pre-crisis levels. This phenomenon has not been exclusive to these two countries. Both advanced and emerging markets have pursued expansionary fiscal policies, leading to narrower fiscal space across the board. Public debt-to-GDP ratios in the Eurozone economies have risen to levels well above 60 percent, with limited scope for consolidation in view of the sizeable budget deficits and the likelihood of GDP contraction in some economies. In East Asia, public debt-to-GDP ratios have also risen, with average public debt levels in the ASEAN-5 countries standing at around 46 percent of GDP, and expected to decline only gradually over time.1 In the light of the narrowing fiscal space and increasing fiscal demands, the need for effective policy becomes ever more critical. In tackling the question of effectiveness, Sangsubhan and Basris consider revenue and expenditure-based stimulus measures. In both Indonesia and Thailand, the relatively lower efficacy of expenditure-type measures stems from their longer implementation periods. Delays in the absorption of expenditure are becoming increasingly common among the major ASEAN economies due to delays in absorption, and a greater demand for rigorous public resource management and accountability, as well as tighter regulatory and environmental standards for large investment projects. Despite the importance of strategic fiscal spending in emerging markets in the form of gross fixed capital formation and infrastructure investment, there is a risk that revenue-based stimulus is preferred to expenditure-based stimulus on account of this perceived ineffectiveness. As pointed out by Budina and Tuladhar (2010),these longer-term investments tend to be overlooked in favour of stimulus measures that can be more quickly absorbed into the real economy, but have only short-term effects in boosting consumption. Policy measures such as the improvement of land acquisition laws need to be explored even in peacetime. While the immediate need for fiscal policy support seems to have diminished somewhat, developments in Europe and elsewhere will still need to be monitored carefully. Although conventional indicators do not suggest debt sustainability is an immediate cause for concern, East Asia remains vulnerable to shocks from advanced economies and, therefore, must manage its fiscal space and policy adjustments well. Any departure from fiscal policy support would need to be carefully evaluated with the following three considerations in mind. Firstly, in the short term, fiscal stimulus measures must be rolled back. In practice, however, revenue-based measures (tax cuts) are usually semi-permanent in nature and are difficult to unwind. Expenditure-based measures, in particular, discretionary spending, can be difficult to phase out, particularly if they take the form of pre-committed subsidies. In both Indonesia and Thailand, the removal of these subsidies (for example, fuel subsidies) have implications for inflation and can be politically sensitive. For the major ASEAN countries, however, implementation delays inherent in such expenditure-based measures could turn out to be a blessing in disguise, making exits easier. Secondly, it is important that medium-term plans for strong, sustainable and balanced growth must include prudent public debt management to ensure ample fiscal space for counter-cyclical policy responses to future shocks. A medium-term plan which is well communicated to the public is critical to ensure the credibility of medium-term debt sustainability, and to prevent a deterioration in fundamentals should interest rates or liquidity pressures rise. This will prove crucial as East Asian countries are looking to introduce and improve their social security systems in the near future. Thirdly, as has been highlighted in the case of Greece, the accuracy and credibility of data as well as the transparency of public finances need to be closely monitored and improved. Improved transparency will contribute to a clearer recognition of public liabilities, namely off-budget expenditures, government guarantees and expenditure through state-owned enterprises.

The influence of government intervention on the trajectory of bank performance during the global financial crisis: A comparative study among Asian economies

The global financial crisis that started from 2007 onwards spread around the world and impacted the performance of banks in major economies. Many governments have used a variety of intervention policies to recover their financial systems. By examining the dynamic changes in bank performance before and after government intervention, this study demonstrates the use of the piecewise latent trajectory model. We used the data collected from Bloomberg for banks of five major Asian economies, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan, over the eleven-quarter period from the 4th quarter of 2007 to the 2nd quarter of 2010 on six financial performance indicators reflecting solvency, credit risk and profitability. The change patterns of bank performance before/after government intervention during the global financial crisis have been compared among the five economies. Our empirical results indicate that, on average, the bank performance in terms of solvency, credit risk, and profitability improves after government intervention. Moreover, the influence of government intervention on bank performance depends on the evaluative financial indicator, the economy, and whether banks are internationalized. South Korea and Hong Kong have been identified to be the economies with stronger bank performance after government intervention. Policies demonstrated useful in South Korea and Hong Kong have been summarized and discussed.

The determinants of household energy-saving behavior: Survey and comparison in five major Asian cities

It is difficult to control household energy consumption through regulation. From a policy standpoint, it is particularly challenging to identify the factors that influence people’s actions. Moreover, whatever these factors are, they are unlikely to uniformly span multiple cities in the Asian region. In this paper, we conduct a survey of energy-saving behavior to clarify the differences among such factors across five major Asian cities. The results from these surveys in Dalian, Chongqing, Fukuoka, Bangkok, and Ho Chi Minh indicate that global warming consciousness, environmental behavior, and social interaction significantly affect energy-saving behavior. Income and age also had weak positive effects on energy-saving behaviors. Social interaction was strongly linked to energy-saving behaviors, particularly in the rural areas of Dalian and Chongqing. This result indicates that community-based activities impact energy-saving behaviors.

Global output growth and volatility spillovers

This article examines discernable patterns of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth co-movements across 29 countries, using consistent time series data (1912–2008). Of these countries, only 12 are found to form three statistically significant groupings (i.e. G6-six Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) European countries, G4-four Anglo-Saxon countries, and G2-two major Asian countries). One may then conclude that, inter alia, geographical proximity, cultural ties, and the level of socio-economic and financial ties among countries determine the global systematic co-movements of growth rates. Our results indicate that any recession in the US initially engulfs other Anglo-Saxon countries as well as G6 and G2 countries, before exerting its adverse knock-on effects to the rest of the world. A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model is also used to examine the transmission of GDP growth across these three groups and their corresponding volatility spillovers. We find significant bi-directional cross-mean spillovers between the G4 and G6 blocs. In terms of cross-volatility spillovers, the estimated persistence varies from a maximum 0.959 (G4–G6) to a minimum of 0.832 (G2–G4).

The Major Central Asian River Basins: An Assessment of Vulnerability

Central Asia's hydrological systems and environment have undergone incomparable changes during recent decades. By using various geospatial and national databases, the socio-economic-environmental vulnerability of the region's major river basins with regard to stress factors related to governance, economy, social issues, environment, hazards, and water scarcity was assessed. A vulnerability profile for each basin was produced and compared with those of the Asia-Pacific's 10 major river basins. Each of the factors appeared quite important for the overall vulnerability. It is thus crucial to focus attention holistically on all the analyzed sectors when trying to solve the challenges in Central Asian waters.

Global Health Governance: Analysing China, India and Japan as Global Health Aid Donors

AbstractDevelopment assistance is a significant mechanism by which major countries exercise influence in the global health arena. Of the major Asian powers, Japan has long provided significant funding, while China and India have primarily been recipients but are beginning to increase their funding roles. This article examines the amounts, channels, modes, disease allocations and the geographic focuses of their foreign health aid, and delineates the institutional structures that govern the formulation and implementation of foreign health aid policy in each of these countries, to explore what influence China, India, and Japan have and may develop in the global health arena. The article looks in particular at two focal lenses, sovereignty and institutional diversity, to understand what if anything is different from existing approaches to global health governance and what might be expected from these three key Asian nations vis‐à‐vis global health.Policy Implications Japan’s global health leadership transcends its bilateral initiatives. The critical question that emerges now is whether Japan can sustain its will and capacity without clear policy direction from the current government amid domestic turmoil. What is to be done by Japan, and who will do it? China and India have not engaged extensively with the global processes as donors. Yet, as recipients they have been open to a wide range of types of actors and relatively relaxed about sovereignty concerns, possibly providing a basis for a similar direction in development assistance for health (DAH) as their programs mature. The domestic institutions responsible for external development assistance for health in both China and India would need to be substantially reformed and strengthened for these countries to have the capacity to play leading roles in global health governance in the future. China and India increasingly have the capacity to invest greater resources in their own public health systems, which would redress some of the existing imbalances in allocations of global health finance. Such domestic investment in domestic health care delivery would enhance India and China’s capacity to assume leadership roles and contribute towards innovations within global health and global health governance and augment their status as responsible and responsive global health stakeholders.

Coupled Behavior Analysis with Applications

Coupled behaviors refer to the activities of one to many actors who are associated with each other in terms of certain relationships. With increasing network and community-based events and applications, such as group-based crime and social network interactions, behavior coupling contributes to the causes of eventual business problems. Effective approaches for analyzing coupled behaviors are not available, since existing methods mainly focus on individual behavior analysis. This paper discusses the problem of Coupled Behavior Analysis (CBA) and its challenges. A Coupled Hidden Markov Model (CHMM)-based approach is illustrated to model and detect abnormal group-based trading behaviors. The CHMM models cater for: 1) multiple behaviors from a group of people, 2) behavioral properties, 3) interactions among behaviors, customers, and behavioral properties, and 4) significant changes between coupled behaviors. We demonstrate and evaluate the models on order-book-level stock tick data from a major Asian exchange and demonstrate that the proposed CHMMs outperforms HMM-only for modeling a single sequence or combining multiple single sequences, without considering coupling relationships to detect anomalies. Finally, we discuss interaction relationships and modes between coupled behaviors, which are worthy of substantial study.

Episodes of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations and Reserves Accumulations in Selected Asian Economies: Is Fear of Appreciations Justified?

The objective of our paper is to provide an empirical platform to the debate on the macroeconomic consequences of large currency appreciations. Observing the experiences of six major Asian economies (the ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore) and Korea) during the past two decades, the primary aim of this study is to ascertain the consequences of strong currencies, on the one hand, and reserves accumulation, on the other, for a set of vital macroeconomic indicators, namely, exports, growth and price. We then deal squarely, in retrospect, with the question of whether there is any justification to the so-called fear of appreciation phenomenon among the policy makers of these Asian economies.

Economic analysis of a low carbon path to 2050: A case for China, India and Japan

This article studies the economic implications that different global GHG emission mitigation policies may have in the major Asian economies, namely, China, India, and Japan. The analysis covers the period 2010–2050 and is performed by means of a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model (GEM-E3). Four scenarios are investigated: the three standard AME scenarios, and a fourth scenario with a GHG emission reduction path compatible with the 2°C target, reducing global GHG emissions in 2050 by 50%, relative to 2005. The scenarios are compared with the already adopted and announced policies of the respective countries, in the context of the Copenhagen pledges for 2020 and their long-term objectives in 2050. We further discuss the role of energy efficiency measures and zero-carbon power technologies in order to reach the long-term 2°C target. We find that postponing significant emission reductions may not accrue an economic benefit over time whereas it may increase some risks by possibly overstretching the reliance on zero-carbon technologies.

Differential regulation of pathogenesis and immune reactions in C57BL/6 and CBA/N mice infected with Clonorchis sinensis (164.22)

Abstract The current knowledge of immunological response to clonorchiasis, a major Asian endemic helminthic disease, is insufficient. To develop a mouse model of clonorchiasis, CBA/N and C57BL/6 mice were infected with Clonorchis sinensis metacercariae and analyzed host responses at 2, 4, and 8 weeks post infection. CBA/N mice infected with C. sinensis developed more severe gross and histopathological changes than C57BL/6 mice. In addition, more pronounced inflammatory cell infiltration and hepatocyte necrosis were noticed in CBA/N mice, especially at 2 weeks post-infection. Serum biomarkers of liver injury (ALT and AST) were increased significantly in CBA/N mice after C. sinensis infection as compared with those of C57BL/6 mice. We also analyzed the proliferation of splenocytes stimulated with crude C. sinensis antigen and cytokine production in the culture supernatant of activated splenocytes. We found that splenocytes from CBA/N mice were highly proliferative and the IL-17 level was increased. Additionally, an increased IL-4 level was sustained until 8 weeks post-infection in CBA/N mice. The serum levels of C. sinensis-specific IgG1 and IgG2a were increased in CBA/N mice, whereas IgE was increased in C57BL/6 mice. Furthermore, the level of IL-17 was increased in intrahepatic lymphocytes in CBA/N infected groups. Present study suggest that CBA/N could be a appropriate mouse model for clonorchiasis and might be useful for studying early immune responses in liver fluke infection.

An assessment of the potentials of nuclear power and carbon capture and storage in the long-term global warming mitigation options based on Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios

This paper presents an evaluation of global warming mitigation options based on scenarios from the Asian Modeling Exercise. Using an extended version of the integrated assessment model MARIA-23 (Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation), we analyze nuclear fuel recycling options, carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS), and biomass utilization. To assess the potential implications of decreased social acceptance of nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, additional scenarios including a nuclear power expansion limitation, are analyzed. We also evaluate MARIA-23 model simulation estimates of long-term contributions and interrelationships among nuclear power, biomass, and CCS. Finally, potential costs of nuclear limitation under carbon control policies are assessed.The simulation results in this paper suggest the following: (1) under the reference scenario, global GDP losses in climate limitation scenarios range from 1.3% per year to 3.9% per year in 2060, rising to between 3.5% per year and 4.5% per year in 2100; (2) the use of nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies increase rapidly in all carbon control policy scenarios; (3) under a scenario where the price of CO2 is $30 and nuclear power expansion is strictly limited, GDP losses increase significantly—from 4.5% per year to 6.4% per year by 2100; (4) nuclear power and CCS are substitute mitigation technologies. With nuclear power technology available CCS deployment reaches approximately 15,000Mt-CO2 per year by 2010; without a nuclear power option, CCS deployment rises to more than 80,000Mt-CO2 per year; and (5) biomass utilization cannot fully compensate for limitations to nuclear power expansion in policy scenarios. In addition to examining the role of these three technologies on global scales, we report results for several major Asian regions, namely Japan, China, and India. China tends to deploy nuclear power (if available) in response to rapidly growing power demands, in all scenarios while India tends to rely less on nuclear power. The potential cost of nuclear power limitation under global warming mitigation in Japan is estimated be significantly higher than in China or India.

What's next?: unconventional wisdom on the future of the world economy

The world spins in economic turmoil, and who can tell what will happen next? Cold numbers and simple statistical projections don't take into account social, financial, or political factors that can dramatically alter the economic course of a nation or a region. In this unique book, more than twenty leading economists and experts render thorough, rigorously researched prognoses for the world's major economies over the next five years. Factoring in such varied issues as the price of oil, the strength of the U.S. dollar, geopolitics, tax policies, and new developments in investment decision making, the contributors ground their predictions in the realities of current events, political conditions, and the health of financial institutions in each national economy. The most comprehensive volume on the global economy available today, this book presents up-to-date research on Russia, Australia, Europe, sub-Saharan and South Africa, the major Asian economies, North America, and the largest economies of Latin America. With unsurpassed expertise, the authors explain what's going on in individual countries, how important current global issues will impact them, and what economic scenarios they most likely will face in upcoming years.

Trends and Dimensions of FDI in South Asian Economies — A Comparative Analysis

This paper compares the trends and dimensions of FDI in major South Asian economies, namely Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal. The paper reveals that although South Asia, as a whole, received higher importance in receiving FDI after the post reform period (1990s), India holds lion’s share of FDI in this region. Besides, the equity component has been the largest form of FDI in South Asia, although the share of re-invested earnings in FDI inflows of Bangladesh and Pakistan exceeds than that of India. Likewise, South Asian economies differ substantially on an individual basis when sectoral decomposition of FDI and major source economies are taken into account. The paper highlights that poor FDI utilization efficiency, political risk in investment and cost of doing business are some of the key factors for promoting difference in the South Asian economies in receiving FDI.

Helicobacter pylori Genotyping from American Indigenous Groups Shows Novel Amerindian vacA and cagA Alleles and Asian, African and European Admixture

It is valuable to extend genotyping studies of Helicobacter pylori to strains from indigenous communities across the world to better define adaption, evolution, and associated diseases. We aimed to genetically characterize both human individuals and their infecting H. pylori from indigenous communities of Mexico, and to compare them with those from other human groups. We studied individuals from three indigenous groups, Tarahumaras from the North, Huichols from the West and Nahuas from the center of Mexico. Volunteers were sampled at their community site, DNA was isolated from white blood cells and mtDNA, Y-chromosome, and STR alleles were studied. H. pylori was cultured from gastric juice, and DNA extracted for genotyping of virulence and housekeeping genes. We found Amerindian mtDNA haplogroups (A, B, C, and D), Y-chromosome DYS19T, and Amerindian STRs alleles frequent in the three groups, confirming Amerindian ancestry in these Mexican groups. Concerning H.pylori cagA phylogenetic analyses, although most isolates were of the Western type, a new Amerindian cluster neither Western nor Asian, was formed by some indigenous Mexican, Colombian, Peruvian and Venezuelan isolates. Similarly, vacA phylogenetic analyses showed the existence of a novel Amerindian type in isolates from Alaska, Mexico and Colombia. With hspA strains from Mexico and other American groups clustered within the three major groups, Asian, African or European. Genotyping of housekeeping genes confirmed that Mexican strains formed a novel Asian-related Amerindian group together with strains from remote Amazon Aborigines. This study shows that Mexican indigenous people with Amerindian markers are colonized with H. pylori showing admixture of Asian, European and African strains in genes known to interact with the gastric mucosa. We present evidence of novel Amerindian cagA and vacA alleles in indigenous groups of North and South America.

Changes in Trade Intensity Between Korea and the Five Major ASEAN Countries in the Manufacturing Sector for the Period of 2003-2008

Changes in Trade Intensity Between Korea and the Five Major ASEAN Countries in the Manufacturing Sector for the Period of 2003-2008

An Analysis on the Competitive Structure of Major Asian Countries’ Digital Products in the USA and EU Markets

An Analysis on the Competitive Structure of Major Asian Countries’ Digital Products in the USA and EU Markets

Trace elements and lead isotopic composition of PM10 in Lhasa, Tibet

Abstract This paper presents the first detailed investigation on airborne trace metals and their potential major sources at Lhasa, the largest city in Tibetan Plateau (TP). The whole year PM10 samples were collected during September 2007 and August 2008. The annual average concentration of PM10 in Lhasa was 51.8 ± 42.5 μg m−3, lower than those of major Asian cities. Distinct seasonal patterns were observed in PM10 concentration, with higher concentrations in winter, and lower in summer. The mean elemental concentrations were generally comparable with other urban areas, but significantly higher than those from a remote site in TP (i.e., Nam Co). Crustal elements, including Na, Mg, Al, K, Ca, Sc, Ti, V, Mn, Fe, As and Ba, had similar seasonal patterns in PM10, while other elements, such as Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, and Cd, had less distinct seasonal variations, suggesting more anthropogenic inputs of the latter group. The result of principle component analysis (PCA) on trace elements demonstrated that fugitive dusts, traffic emissions and waste incineration activities were probably the major sources of anthropogenic metals in the atmosphere at Lhasa. The Pb isotopic compositions revealed that the metal was mainly originated from nature background with a minor contribution from the cement factory. The data obtained in this study can be useful for making pollution control strategies in the city, and also valuable for trace element studies in other environmental medium, such as snow, ice core, and lake sediments in the TP region.

The development of China's scholarly publications in library and information science, 1979‐2009

PurposeNo scholarly publications have systematically studied the evolution and growth of China's scientific papers of library and information science published in the English language and covered by ISI during the reform era starting in 1979. It is intended that this paper should fill this gap.Design/methodology/approachThis study surveys ISI library and information science papers authored by researchers of China during 1979‐2009 and quantitatively presents the development of scholarly publications authored by researchers from China. A total of 30 years of data of ISI literature are collected and analyzed, and the paper conducts an international comparison of research productivity among leading Asian countries.FindingsThe paper establishes the patterns and trends of papers authored by Chinese authors, particularly the top subject areas and top journals in which Chinese papers are highly represented. Besides, the paper makes an international comparison between China and other major Asian countries such as India, Japan, and Korea in terms of library and information science research outputs represented in ISI literature. China has become the leader in terms of research productivity of library and information science.Research limitations/implicationsThis study focuses on English‐language journal articles only. Only journals meeting ISI inclusion criteria are reviewed and analyzed. The possible accidentally inaccurate entries in the original ISI data have not been checked for accuracy and consistency for each journal article record.Originality/valueThe paper provided an example of using the powerful ISI databases of citation indexes, particularly ISI SCCI, in a cautious and critical way. It empirically presents the overall upward development of China's scholarship of library and information science. Either the Greater China area as a whole or Mainland China alone has become the leader in the scholarly publications in library and information ahead of India, Korea and Japan.

Recalibration of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score in a multiethnic Asian population

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is a leading cause of mortality in Asia. However, quantitative risk scores to predict mortality after AMI were developed without the participation of Asian countries. We evaluated the performance of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) in-hospital mortality risk score, directly and after recalibration, in a large Singaporean cohort representing 3 major Asian ethnicities. The GRACE cohort included 11,389 patients, predominantly of European descent, hospitalized for AMI or unstable angina from 2002 to 2003. The Singapore cohort included 10,100 Chinese, 3,005 Malay, and 2,046 Indian patients hospitalized for AMI from 2002 to 2005.Using the original GRACE score, predicted in-hospital mortality was 2.4% (Chinese), 2.0% (Malay), and 1.6% (Indian). However, observed in-hospital mortality was much greater at 9.8% (Chinese), 7.6% (Malay), and 6.4% (Indian). The c statistic for Chinese, Malays, and Indians was 0.86, 0.86, and 0.84, respectively, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was 250, 56, and 41, respectively. Recalibration of the GRACE score, using the mean-centered constants derived from the Singapore cohort, did not change the c statistic but substantially improved the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic to 90, 24, and 18, respectively. The recalibrated GRACE score predicted in-hospital mortality as follows: 7.7% (Chinese), 6.0% (Malay), and 5.2% (Indian). In this large cohort of 3 major Asian ethnicities, the original GRACE score, derived from populations outside Asia, underestimated in-hospital mortality after AMI. Recalibration improved risk estimation substantially and may help adapt externally developed risk scores for local practice.