Major Importing Countries Research Articles

Forecasting the export competitiveness of Peruvian coffee in major importing countries usingautoregressive integrated moving average modeling

The study analyzes the export competitiveness of Peruvian coffee in international markets using the ARIMA model to forecast export trends. The objective is to identify factors influencing the sector's profitability and sustainability. Time series of export volumes and prices were evaluated, revealing that the ARIMA model allows for accurate predictions of future trends. The results suggest that the Peruvian coffee sector faces challenges related to international price fluctuations and global competition. Emphasis is placed on the importance of efficiency in production and export processes to maintain and enhance the competitiveness of Peruvian coffee in the global market.

Linder hypothesis and India’s services

This study examines the empirical validity of the Linder hypothesis for India’s service sector exports from 2005 to 2021, focusing on 35 major importing countries. We use a gravity model trade, applying Feasible Generalised Least Squares (FGLS) and two-step system generalised method of moments (GMM), incorporating country- and time-fixed effects. Our results confirm that the Linder hypothesis does not hold for Indian service exports, revealing an increase in trade intensity between countries with dissimilar income levels. The study finds that distance has a positive and significant impact on Indian service exports. Exchange rates have a negative and significant impact on India’s service exports, while the results for the RTA dummy variable are inconclusive. Sharing a common border, a common colony, and a language has a positive and significant effect on Indian service exports.

Direct, Embedded, and Embodied Trade of Arsenic: 1990-2019.

International arsenic trade, physical and virtual, has resulted in considerable transfer of arsenic pollution across regions. However, no study has systematically captured, estimated, and compared physical and virtual arsenic trade and its relevant impacts. This study combines material flow analysis and embodied emission factors to estimate embedded (including direct and indirect trade) and embodied arsenic trade during 1990-2019, encompassing 18 arsenic-containing products among 244 countries. Global embedded arsenic trade increased considerably from 47 ± 7.3 to 450 ± 68 kilotonnes (kt) during this time and was dominated by indirect arsenic trade, contributing 94 and 90% to global arsenic trade in 1990 and 2019, respectively. Since the 1990s, global arsenic trade centers and the main flows have shifted from European and American markets to developing countries. The mass of arsenic involved in embodied trade increased from 87.5 ± 26 kt in 1990 to 800 ± 236 kt in 2019. Direct trade and indirect trade aggravate arsenic environmental emissions in major importing countries, like China, while embodied trade aggravates arsenic environmental emissions in major exporting countries, like Peru and Chile. The trade-related arsenic pollution transfer calls for a rational arsenic emission responsibility-sharing mechanism and corresponding policy recommendations for different trading countries.

Comprehensive Analysis of Production and Import Dependency of Pulses in India

Background: The multifaceted importance of pulses in India’s agricultural landscape is explored along with its implications particularly the surge in pulse exports to regions such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Africa. By highlighting India’s pivotal role as a global pulse producer and exporter, shedding light on its impact on foreign exchange earnings, employment generation, comprehensive analysis and overall economic growth is attempted. Two key objectives, relating to pulse production, import and export trends, the direction of pulse trade from India to major importing countries, through Markov Chain Analysis, market dynamics are uncovered. Methods: The data on pulses production and export in terms of quantity and value in India were collected from secondary sources. Result: Pulse production remained relatively stable with moderate variability, exports experienced significant fluctuations, particularly in pulse quantities and values. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) analysis confirms consistent production growth, with pulses showing positive CAGR figures. Impact of interaction between area and yield was significant as compared to area and yield independently. Pulse exports saw steady growth in both quantity and value. Further, The Markov chain analysis underscored Pakistan’s stability as a primary export destination, while Bangladesh, the UAE and others exhibited varying degrees of export retention probabilities. Overall, the data reflects a stable domestic production environment and an increasingly dynamic international pulse export market for India.

Trade Pattern of Indian Basmati Rice: A Markov Chain Approach

The present study was undertaken to study the trade dynamics of basmati rice using the Markov-Chain approach. The findings indicated that the most unstable market during the first period was Iraq and the USA, and in the second period, was the USA, respectively, with zero probability retention. The projected export share of major importing countries indicated that the UAE, the Yemen Republic, and Saudi Arabia were likely to increase their export share. At the same time, Iran is expected to lose its share in Indian Basmati rice exports in the coming years. However, India has retained its original import markets and explored new markets as a comparative advantage. In order to sustain itself in the global market, the Government should focus on improving export infrastructure facilities.

Effects of Government Price Policies on Major Agricultural Commodities in Andhra Pradesh, India

This study was concerned with analysis of export competitiveness and quantification of impact of price policies in Andhra Pradesh on net social loss in production and consumption, and welfare gain of farmers and consumers and change in Government revenue with respect to major food grains and commercial crops. Policy Analysis Matrix and Partial Equilibrium Model in the Marshallian economic surplus framework are employed in this study. The findings from Policy Analysis Matrix revealed that, on the input side, the farmers are more subsidized for rice and maize, as Nominal Protection coefficient on Tradable Inputs are less than one across all the major importing countries (unlike for chickpea, cotton lint and chilies (dry)). However, from the output side (Nominal Protection coefficient on Tradable output), the farmers producing rice, maize and chilies (dry) are more protective compared to social prices. Considering both input and output policies together, the farmers are simultaneously protective (Effective Protection Coefficient) for rice and maize and hence, the overall transfer from society to farmers is positive (Subsidy Ratio to Producers). The findings from Partial Equilibrium Model showed that total net social loss was found to be positive implying protectionism favoured the farmers across all the selected commodities. Further, the net social loss in production turned out to be positive confirming the main postulate of this study—a price greater than the equilibrium price will reduce the quantity demanded. The protectionist policies further led to a positive effect of trade liberalization on the welfare in the State and an increase in foreign exchange earnings, except for chickpea (in view of its net-importer status). Unlike farmers, consumers in Andhra Pradesh suffered welfare loss due to higher domestic prices over border prices for rice, maize and chilies (dry), However, there is a considerable increase in Government revenue due to pricing policies formulated by the Government of Andhra Pradesh. The welfare gains to farmers are negative for chickpeas and cotton in view of higher domestic prices compared to border prices. So, the key point evident is that due to protectionism, the magnitude of net loss to consumers’ welfare compared to welfare gain of farmers is higher between Rs. 21916 lakh to Rs. 23768 during TE 2020-21 implying welfare transfers from consumers to farmers. Thus, the Government of Andhra Pradesh is spending an enormous amount of money to keep the protection policies going for the benefit of farmers. However, considering the net importer status of chickpeas, the Government should further escalate the subsidy both in production and marketing programs.

Information system related to the phytosanitary condition analysis of territories

The article describes the rationale for the development of an information system in order to perform the tasks of Rosselkhoznadzor on the analysis of phytosanitary status of territories, which includes planning and results of plans for quarantine phytosanitary monitoring of territories, results of phytomonitoring of pests of quarantine importance for major importing countries of Russian grain and analysis of quarantine phytosanitary status of territories. Functions, structure and information objects of this information system, roles of information system users are described. The results of information system implementation in the practice of the Russian Plant Quarantine Service are evaluated, such as increase of efficiency of the Rosselkhoznadzor function on control and supervision in the field of plant quarantine, ensuring compliance with quarantine phytosanitary requirements of importing countries, which significantly increased the export potential of the Russian Federation, significantly reduce the risk of damage caused by the spread of quarantine objects on the territory of the Russian Federation.

Multilevel analysis of copper resource reallocation in the anthroposphere through international trade

International trade forms a crucial component of copper utilization patterns in the anthroposphere and plays a key role in resource reallocation. In response to the gaps in current research, this study details the evolutionary characteristics of copper flows embedded in international trade from 2000 to 2020 at three scales, i.e., global, continental, and national, along the technological life cycle of copper and quantifies the redistribution of copper resource in the anthroposphere through trade. At the global level, the study highlights that copper volume contained in the international trade has risen from 21.9 Mt to 35.8 Mt during 2000–2020, but with a decreasing growth rate against the background of sluggish global economic growth. At the intercontinental level, natural resource endowments and development requirements determine the role in trade played by each region. Accumulatively, Asia imported a total of 134.2 Mt copper resources from other continents while South America met a total of 128.2 Mt copper demand from other continents. North America and Europe played an important role in both import and export of copper resources, but were basically net importers. At the national level, global copper trade was dominated by a few countries including China, the USA, Chile, Peru, etc., and the copper resource endowment of these countries has been greatly changed through international trade. With the possible tightening of global copper resources supply till 2050, resource competition could emerge among the major importing countries.

Impacts of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the global wheat market

The Russian invasion of Ukraine that began in February 2022 has caused significant disruption to global agricultural markets. As Ukraine is the world's ninth largest producer and fifth largest exporter of wheat, the widespread, destructive effects of the war have serious implications for food prices and global food security. We analyze the impacts of this war on production, consumption, trade, and prices of wheat using a global spatial equilibrium model (SEM). Our results suggest that this conflict causes wheat prices to increase in every country (by around 2%) except Ukraine where prices fell by about 27%. Though other wheat exporting countries augment their exports to capture the market share lost by Ukraine in major importing countries, many of these importing countries suffer from reduced wheat consumption. Not surprisingly, Russia benefits by exporting wheat at the expense of Ukraine to importing countries that traditionally relied on Ukrainian wheat. Because of the war, we estimate that Ukraine's wheat producers experience a $1.4 billion loss in producer surplus.

World Forage Import Market: Competitive Structure and Market Forces

Trade market power serves as a significant indicator of pricing power within the trade market. This paper aims to examine the market structure of global forage trade from 1997 to 2020 and assess the market power of forage exporters in major importing countries, namely Japan, China, and South Korea, by utilizing an extended G-K model based on the theory of residual elasticity of demand. The findings of this analysis provide several key insights. Firstly, it is revealed that the United States and Australia hold a monopoly on forage trade, while China has emerged as the most pivotal market for worldwide forage trade. Notably, China’s growing demand for forage imports is profoundly influencing the global forage trade landscape. Secondly, the extent and effectiveness of exporting countries’ market power in forage-importing nations, such as China, varies considerably. Lastly, the market power of forage-exporting countries is determined by various factors, including the demand for forage in importing nations, export monopoly, import structure, demand elasticity, and the level of marketization.

중국 新 화장품감독관리조례에 관한 연구

Purpose – This study aims to analyze the impact based on the latest Technical Barriers to Trade from the Chinese government in the cosmetics industry, which is heavily dependent on exports to China, and discovers estimated difficulties to continue imports under new regulations. Design/Methodology/Approach – This study compared the cosmetic regulations and import standards of three major cosmetic importing countries. It was conducted through a literature review, especially in new regulations, Cosmetics Supervision, and Administration Regulations from China. Findings – First, it highlighted the challenges that Korean exporters face due to the different regulatory standards for cosmetics in different countries. The new ordinances required excessive information disclosure, product efficacy evaluation reports, and localization using only Chinese local laboratories. These requirements could cause duplicate inspections, leak core technology, and hinder the technological development and quality improvement of the cosmetics industry. Lastly, the absence of clarity on the basis and standards for protecting the safety data of cosmetic ingredients adds to the registration burden for companies to continue exporting. Research Implications – Korean cosmetics exporters are firmly positioned in the Chinese market with experience and world-class technology, but new Chinese Cosmetics Supervision and Administration Ordinance may impact export values. However, there is currently insufficient data to measure the impact of the ordinance. To become the world’s top cosmetics exporter, the Korean cosmetics industry needs a gradual approach to resolve China’s import regulations, and close cooperation between exporters and government agencies is essential. Future analysis may be possible with more quantitative data.

Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Permintaan Impor Ikan Hias Indonesia di Negara Importir Utama

Indonesia is one of the world's ornamental fish exporting countries. Demand for Indonesian ornamental fish from major importing countries such as United States, China and Singapore. In terms of meeting the demand of the ornamental fish market in importing country, Indonesia is still inferior to other countries such as Philippines. The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors that influence demand volume of Indonesian ornamental fish imports in United States, China and Singapore. The time period used was from 2000 to 2018. Data sources were taken from UN Comtrade and World Bank. The research method used is descriptive analysis and quantitative analysis using Ordinary Least Square. The results of this study indicate the volume of important demand for Indonesian ornamental fish in United States and Singapore has a negative trend while in Chinese market it has a positive trend. Then factors that influence the demand for Indonesian ornamental fish in United States are price of imported Indonesian ornamental fish, price of imported competence, and exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar. In Chinese market, this is influenced by price of Indonesian ornamental fish and the exchange rate of the rupiah against the yuan. While in the Singapore market this is influenced by price of Indonesian ornamental fish.

How do strategic mineral resources affect clean energy transition? Cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) approach

In the transition to a low carbon economy, minerals are crucial. The demand for the minerals required to create and install green energy technology, such as solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles, and energy storage, is rising along with it. In particular, the countries that hold these mineral reserves should be thought of as thriving economically from the rising demand for essential mineral resources (such as cobalt, lithium, and others). This study uses import demand function analysis to look at how the major mineral importing countries’ mineral import demand changed in response to the clean energy transitions between 2000 and 2021 for selected 14 countries. In the study, the cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) method was used. Findings show that long-term renewable energy production has a largely favorable impact on mineral import demand. Additionally, CO2 emissions have a long-term negative impact on mineral import demands, but energy intensity and exchange rate are favorable for mineral imports. The findings have significant ramifications for using the mineral trade to speed up the transition to sustainable energy around the world. Therefore, the study’s key proposed policy is to emphasize the value of mineral resources in clean energy while maximizing their use in the transition to carbon-free energy.

Evaluating liquefied natural gas export quantities from Egypt using system dynamics approach

Background: Egypt and nearby countries have been discovering new sources of natural gas (NG) leading to proven increased reserves. Egypt has two liquefaction stations for exporting Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), while nearby countries do not have such stations.Aim: Egypt adopted a policy to export LNG to major importing countries in Europe. Hence, this article aims to analyse the dynamics of the factors affecting the LNG export supply chain, and the main elements of adequate policies needed to optimise decisions related to LNG export in Egypt.Settings: The input data for this study were obtained from official national and international reports.Method: A system dynamics simulation model is used as a decision support system model to optimise decisions related to LNG exports in Egypt.Results: The model gives insight into the effect of investment in new discoveries, investment in renewable energy and changes in population, gross domestic product (GDP) and LNG export prices, as well as the quantity of LNG re-export on the dynamics of LNG export Present Value and quantity.Conclusion: The research provides a novel decision support system that can be used in adopting adequate policies along the LNG industry supply chain targets, optimising decisions related to exports of LNG. For Egypt, investments in new discoveries and making a long-term agreement to buy NG to be re-exported, are recommended strategic decisions to consider when targeting the optimisation of decisions related to the export of LNG. Investment in the generation of renewable energy and decreasing the home usage patterns come next in importance.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Topological Evolution of the Global Crude Oil Trade Network

The high separation of crude oil supply and demand markets has led to the formation of a global crude oil trading system. This paper constructs global crude oil trade networks, integrates macro, meso, and micro network analysis methods, combines geospatial visualization techniques, and then portrays the spatiotemporal patterns and topological evolution of the global crude oil trade networks. Thus, it attempts to dig deeper into the world crude oil competition and cooperation links and evolution laws and provides a scientific reference for a comprehensive understanding of the global crude oil market dynamics. The results show that: (1) After three fluctuations of increase and decrease since 2000, the global crude oil trade volume is entering the adjustment period, and the scale of the crude oil market is rising slowly. (2) The international crude oil trade has formed trade network patterns with complex structures, clear hierarchy and unbalanced distribution. The “rich club” phenomenon is significant, with large trading countries dominating the trade network. (3) The scale and density of the global crude oil trade network show a trend of increasing and then decreasing, the network agglomeration pattern becoming more obvious, the inter-nodal links continuously strengthening, and the network connectivity improving. (4) The global crude oil trade networks are characterized by core–periphery structures, and the polarization effect is significant. The US, Russia, China, Japan, the Netherlands, and South Korea hold the core positions in the crude oil trade network, and the major importing countries have become the dominant forces in the trade network. In addition, we present policy suggestions for different types of countries for energy transformation and security in the global trade market system, which can be used as a reference for policymakers.

Evaluating the Performance, Export Competitiveness and Direction of Trade of Indian Banana in the International Market

ABSTRACT The study examined the changing pattern of international trade in bananas globally and in India at a macro level from 2000 to 2020. It analyzed the growth pattern, direction of trade, trade competitiveness, and market access issues like tariff and non-tariff barriers (NTBs) faced by exporters in major markets. The analysis revealed that the export of bananas from India increased from $8.10 thousand to $212 thousand from 2000 to 2020, with an annual growth of 21 per cent. Iran, UAE, Oman, and Saudi Arabia are the major destination markets for Indian bananas, wherein India exports more than 70 per cent of its banana export. Banana exports from India possess export competitiveness as the Nominal Protection Coefficient (NPC) was less than one (ranging between 0.28 to 0.70), and the domestic prices were lower than the international prices. Oman emerged as a stable market for banana imports from India in quantity and value terms. Iran and Nepal were the most important markets for Indian bananas but Kuwait and Saudi Arabia markets were unstable markets for Indian bananas. Among the major importing countries of Banana, Japan has imposed the highest number of notifications (164 Non-tariff Measures (NTMs)) on total imports of India since 1995. The USA imposed 119 NTMs, and the EU imposed 65 notifications. Still, it had imposed more TBT measures (35). Regarding Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) measures, agricultural goods do not involve technological prowess but only consider consumer health and safety issues, which can be harmonized as it is good for trading partners. For Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) measures driven mainly by technology, India must follow the same approach carefully. Future research should concentrate on the impact of NTMs in depth by considering all the stakeholders. Keywords: Banana export, competitiveness, Markov Chain Analysis, NPC. JEL Codes: C88, F13, Q17.

Evaluating the Performance, Export Competitiveness and Direction of Trade of Indian Banana in the International Market

ABSTRACT The study examined the changing pattern of international trade in bananas globally and in India at a macro level from 2000 to 2020. It analyzed the growth pattern, direction of trade, trade competitiveness, and market access issues like tariff and non-tariff barriers (NTBs) faced by exporters in major markets. The analysis revealed that the export of bananas from India increased from $8.10 thousand to $212 thousand from 2000 to 2020, with an annual growth of 21 per cent. Iran, UAE, Oman, and Saudi Arabia are the major destination markets for Indian bananas, wherein India exports more than 70 per cent of its banana export. Banana exports from India possess export competitiveness as the Nominal Protection Coefficient (NPC) was less than one (ranging between 0.28 to 0.70), and the domestic prices were lower than the international prices. Oman emerged as a stable market for banana imports from India in quantity and value terms. Iran and Nepal were the most important markets for Indian bananas but Kuwait and Saudi Arabia markets were unstable markets for Indian bananas. Among the major importing countries of Banana, Japan has imposed the highest number of notifications (164 Non-tariff Measures (NTMs)) on total imports of India since 1995. The USA imposed 119 NTMs, and the EU imposed 65 notifications. Still, it had imposed more TBT measures (35). Regarding Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) measures, agricultural goods do not involve technological prowess but only consider consumer health and safety issues, which can be harmonized as it is good for trading partners. For Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) measures driven mainly by technology, India must follow the same approach carefully. Future research should concentrate on the impact of NTMs in depth by considering all the stakeholders. Keywords: Banana export, competitiveness, Markov Chain Analysis, NPC. JEL Codes: C88, F13, Q17.

Materializing International Trade of Decarbonized Hydrogen Through Optimization in Both Economic and Environmental Aspects

As deviations in H2 production capacity by countries become a considerable barrier to the realization of the global H2 economy, international trade between countries with abundant resources and those with limited resources is required. In line with this trend, numerous supply chains between several countries have been planned, and associated studies have been conducted. However, the study which treats international overseas H2 trade chains considering numerous major importing and exporting countries has rarely been conducted before. In this study, a comprehensive optimization for the overseas H2 supply chain considering the three major importing countries including Korea, Japan, and Germany was conducted with mixed-integer linear programming considering both economic and environmental aspects simultaneously. Through the optimization study, the most feasible H2 supply chains for each importing country could be verified according to years and case scenarios. Blue H2 from Qatar turns out to be the most feasible supply chain for Japan in 2030, while green H2 from South Africa is the most feasible one for other importing countries. In 2040, green H2 from South Africa and Australia becomes the best one for Asian importers, and Australia finally dominates all the supplies after 2050. In the case of Germany, green H2 from Spain is considered the best after 2040. Depending on the scenario, the difference in the selected countries and supply amounts is not significant, though the costs are varied. Ammonia turns out to be the most feasible carrier for H2, and the total cost including the carbon tax ranges from 2.15 to 3.43 $ kgH2–1, which is a range from the current green H2 to the blue H2 price.

Analysis of Competitiveness and Forecasting of Indonesian Tea Exports to Main Destination Countries

<p>Indonesia as a tea exporter in the world has not maximized tea export opportunities as indicated by the decline in the value of tea exports from 2016 to 2020. This study aims to further analyze the competitiveness of Indonesian tea exports to major importing countries and predict the value of exports that will occur until 2025. This study used time series data from 2001-2020 which was analyzed with Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The results of the analysis show that the competitiveness of Indonesian tea exports to the main destination countries, namely Russia, Malaysia, China, Taiwan, and the United States, does not have a comparative advantage (RCA<1). However, based on forecasting results, the value of tea exports to Russia, Malaysia, and China is expected to increase until 2025. This increase in tea export value also has an impact in the form of strengthening the competitiveness of Indonesian tea exports in these countries even though the RCA index value is smaller than one. Thus, although the competitiveness of Indonesian tea exports is still weak in destination countries, Indonesia can optimize tea exports to countries that have increased competitiveness, such as Russia, Malaysia, and China.</p>

U.S. Almond Exports and Retaliatory Trade Tariffs

The U.S. is the top producer, exporter, and consumer of tree nuts in the world. Tree nuts are a significant part of U.S. agricultural exports to the world. In 2019, the U.S. exported about USD 9.1 billion worth of tree nuts, just behind soybean exports at USD 18.7 billion. Tree nuts, such as almonds and pistachios, are mostly produced in the state of California. California produces 100% of U.S. commercial almonds. Globally, almonds are the leading U.S. tree nut export in both value and volume. Almonds are shipped to over 90 countries annually. This study aimed to investigate factors affecting the export demand function for U.S. almonds in major destination countries and evaluate the impact of the retaliatory trade tariffs policy by some of the importing countries on the U.S. almond exports. The currently available literature does not fully address these issues. We identified the top five almond export destinations, which were in Europe and Asia, namely, China/Hong Kong, Germany, India, Japan, and Spain, which account for more than 50% of U.S. almond imports. We used a double-log export demand equation that is well referenced in the literature and economic theory to identify the significant explanatory variables affecting the U.S. almonds export demand function. We also tried to estimate the impact of retaliatory tariffs on almond exports imposed by the major importing countries. Our results showed that U.S. almond and pistachio prices, real exchange rates, and gross domestic products of importing countries were significant factors that affected U.S. almond exports. The results showed that the imposed retaliatory tariffs had no negative effect on U.S. almond exports. This could have been because the study ended in 2019 and did not involve enough data to fully evaluate the impact of the retaliatory trade tariffs policy. U.S. almond exports have market concentration and strong market power in international markets. The efforts toward more sustainable production of almonds to solidify an already established market share in the world almond markets and against substitutes, such as pistachios, seem to be a sound strategy and focus of the U.S. almond agribusinesses and exporters.