Intense Magnetic Storms Research Articles

Mapping geoelectric fields during magnetic storms: Synthetic analysis of empirical United States impedances

AbstractEmpirical impedance tensors obtained from EarthScope magnetotelluric data at sites distributed across the midwestern United States are used to examine the feasibility of mapping magnetic storm induction of geoelectric fields. With these tensors, in order to isolate the effects of Earth conductivity structure, we perform a synthetic analysis—calculating geoelectric field variations induced by a geomagnetic field that is geographically uniform but varying sinusoidally with a chosen set of oscillation frequencies that are characteristic of magnetic storm variations. For north‐south oriented geomagnetic oscillations at a period of T0=100 s, induced geoelectric field vectors show substantial geographically distributed differences in amplitude (approximately a factor of 100), direction (up to 130∘), and phase (over a quarter wavelength). These differences are the result of three‐dimensional Earth conductivity structure, and they highlight a shortcoming of one‐dimensional conductivity models (and other synthetic models not derived from direct geophysical measurement) that are used in the evaluation of storm time geoelectric hazards for the electric power grid industry. A hypothetical extremely intense magnetic storm having 500 nT amplitude at T0=100 s would induce geoelectric fields with an average amplitude across the midwestern United States of about 2.71 V/km, but with a representative site‐to‐site range of 0.15 V/km to 16.77 V/km. Significant improvement in the evaluation of such hazards will require detailed knowledge of the Earth's interior three‐dimensional conductivity structure.

Frequency distributions of magnetic storms and SI+SSC-derived records at Kakioka, Memambetsu, and Kanoya

The Japan Meteorological Agency keeps records of geomagnetic phenomena observed at Kakioka (magnetic latitude, 27.47°), Memambetsu (magnetic latitude, 35.44°), and Kanoya (magnetic latitude, 22.00°). We used these records to examine the cumulative frequency distribution of magnetic storms, sudden impulses, and storm sudden commencements. The distributions of magnetic storms resemble the Gutenberg–Richter relation between earthquake frequency and magnitude used in seismology. The coefficients determined with the maximum likelihood method show that when the H-range of a magnetic storm at Kakioka is doubled, the frequency of the magnetic storm is about one seventh, for example. Intense magnetic storms occur less frequently than calculated by the functions. This statistical analysis proves that there are no significant differences between slopes of the frequency distribution functions of the magnetic phenomena at Kakioka, Memambetsu, and Kanoya.

Association of radiation belt electron enhancements with earthward penetration of Pc5 ULF waves: a case study of intense 2001 magnetic storms

Abstract. Geospace magnetic storms, driven by the solar wind, are associated with increases or decreases in the fluxes of relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt. We examine the response of relativistic electrons to four intense magnetic storms, during which the minimum of the Dst index ranged from −105 to −387 nT, and compare these with concurrent observations of ultra-low-frequency (ULF) waves from the trans-Scandinavian IMAGE magnetometer network and stations from multiple magnetometer arrays available through the worldwide SuperMAG collaboration. The latitudinal and global distribution of Pc5 wave power is examined to determine how deep into the magnetosphere these waves penetrate. We then investigate the role of Pc5 wave activity deep in the magnetosphere in enhancements of radiation belt electrons population observed in the recovery phase of the magnetic storms. We show that, during magnetic storms characterized by increased post-storm electron fluxes as compared to their pre-storm values, the earthward shift of peak and inner boundary of the outer electron radiation belt follows the Pc5 wave activity, reaching L shells as low as 3–4. In contrast, the one magnetic storm characterized by irreversible loss of electrons was related to limited Pc5 wave activity that was not intensified at low L shells. These observations demonstrate that enhanced Pc5 ULF wave activity penetrating deep into the magnetosphere during the main and recovery phase of magnetic storms can, for the cases examined, distinguish storms that resulted in increases in relativistic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belts from those that did not.

The response of the ionosphere to intense geomagnetic storms in 2012 using GPS-TEC data from East Africa longitudinal sector

The response of the ionosphere to intense magnetic storms has been studied using total electron content (TEC). TEC data recorded by a series of GPS receivers at a longitude ∼35°E covering a wide range of latitudes (32°S to 68°N, geographic) is analyzed to study spatio-temporal modifications of the vertical TEC (vTEC) during storms on 07 and 09 March 2012 and on 14 July 2012. We have observed main phase positive response at equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crests and mid latitude regions in all the storms. These main phase positive responses are associated with vertical drift enhancement (intensified equatorial electrojet (EEJ)) and the mechanical effect of equatorward neutral wind after an auroral activity. A daytime substantial depletion of TEC at low latitude region was observed on 08 March 2012. This is due to the combined effects of oversheilding and disturbance dynamo electric field that drive large downward drifts during the day. The low latitude and equatorial ionospheric response in the recovery phase days of March storm is found to be largely associated with the disturbance dynamo field that suppressed the upward E×B drift from EEJ observations. The summer negative and winter positive response in July storm as well as mid latitude positive response in March storm was associated with the composition changes as depicted by the O to N2 ratio from GUVI measurements.

Decrease in SYM-H during a storm main phase without evidence of a ring current injection

Changes in the Dst index, or the similarly constructed high-resolution SYM-H index, are thought to indicate changes in the total energy content of the ring current. However, this is not always the case. In this paper we examine an intense (SYM-H ∼ −435nT) magnetic storm that occurred on March 31, 2001. The arrival at Earth of strongly southward IMF produced an immediate negative response in the SYM-H index. While energetic particle and magnetometer data from geosynchronous orbit and inner magnetosphere energetic neutral atom imaging indicate that two substorm injections took place during the main phase, there was about one hour when the SYM-H decreased more than 200nT with no evidence in the data for ring current enhancement. Instead the near-Earth magnetotail exhibited a growth phase indicative of a strong, growing cross-tail current, with the large substorm expansion phase and the associated injection of energetic particles coming significantly later. Data from the DMSP spacecraft demonstrate that the polar cap flux grew rapidly in response to the strongly southward IMF. We present observations showing that the decrease in SYM-H occurred when polar cap flux was increasing and there was no evidence of injection into the ring current. Our findings strongly support the relationship between Dst and the polar cap flux proposed by theoretical studies that determined that the tail current system could be a significant contributor to Dst.

On the lognormality of historical magnetic storm intensity statistics: Implications for extreme‐event probabilities

AbstractAn examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic storm maximum intensities are the realization of a lognormal stochastic process. Weighted least squares and maximum likelihood methods are used to fit lognormal functions to −Dst storm time maxima for years 1957–2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power‐law function. In general, the maximum likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least squares. From extrapolation of maximum likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, −Dst ≥ 850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42, 2.41] times per century; a 100 year magnetic storm is identified as having a −Dst ≥ 880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490, 1187] nT.

Occurrence of equatorial spread F during intense geomagnetic storms

AbstractEquatorial spread F (ESF) has been observed in response to the prompt penetration of magnetospheric electric field to equatorial latitudes during intense (minimum Dst ≤ −100 nT; Bz ≤ −10 nT for at least 3 h) magnetic storms using global ion density plots of Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) over nearly one solar cycle (1996–2005). Geostationary amplitude scintillation observations from Calcutta at VHF and L band for 1996–2005 and GPS amplitude scintillation measurements during 2004–2005 from the Indian Satellite Based Augmentation System Geostationary and GPS Navigation Outlay (GPS Aided GEO Augmented Navigation) network of stations all over India have been used to corroborate the DMSP observations. Subsequent to the time of southward interplanetary magnetic field Bz crossing −10 nT for an intense storm, it has been observed that within 4 h, ESF is generated at a longitude where the local time is dusk.

What caused the rapid recovery of the Carrington storm?

The geomagnetic storm during the Carrington event, which occurred on 2 September 1859, displayed extremely rapid recovery. The geomagnetic field increased by approximately 650 nT/h at Bombay, India, and by >300 nT/h in 1-h averaged data. Although the rapid recovery is considered due to a sudden increase in the magnetopause current, a sudden decrease of the ring current, or/and a sudden enhancement of the ionospheric currents, this study focuses on the ring current decay. The Carrington rapid recovery had a time constant (approximately 1 h) comparable to the storm development (i.e., decrease in the geomagnetic field), indicating that energy loss from the ring current region is predominantly controlled by E × B convection transport which is responsible for energy input during the storm main phase. This feature has led us to a hypothesis that the flow-out of dense ring current ions and injections of tenuous plasma sheet ions caused the rapid decay of the ring current and in turn the storm rapid recovery. This study examines whether the Carrington rapid recovery can be explained by the flow-out effect. We extend the empirical Burton’s model to a model that takes into consideration a sudden change in solar wind density which is correlated with plasma sheet density. We first apply the extended Burton’s model to previously observed four intense magnetic storms (Dst minimum < −200 nT) for which solar wind data are available. Using the best fit parameters found by forward modeling, the extended model estimates the recovery of the Carrington storm. The estimate indicates that a solar wind structure with a density bump by approximately 100 cm−3 (and southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) of 65 nT and solar wind speed of 1,500 km/s) can cause the rapid recovery under a continuous southward IMF condition. We conclude that the flow-out effect plays a significant role in producing the rapid recovery of the Carrington storm.

Extremely intense (SML ≤–2500 nT) substorms: isolated events that are externally triggered?

Abstract. We examine particularly intense substorms (SML &amp;amp;leq;–2500 nT), hereafter called "supersubstorms" or SSS events, to identify their nature and their magnetic storm dependences. It is found that these intense substorms are typically isolated events and are only loosely related to magnetic storms. SSS events can occur during super (Dst &amp;amp;leq;–250 nT) and intense (−100 nT &amp;amp;geq; Dst &gt;–250) magnetic storms. SSS events can also occur during nonstorm (Dst &amp;amp;geq;–50 nT) intervals. SSSs are important because the strongest ionospheric currents will flow during these events, potentially causing power outages on Earth. Several SSS examples are shown. SSS events appear to be externally triggered by small regions of very high density (~30 to 50 cm−3) solar wind plasma parcels (PPs) impinging upon the magnetosphere. Precursor southward interplanetary magnetic fields are detected prior to the PPs hitting the magnetosphere. Our hypothesis is that these southward fields input energy into the magnetosphere/magnetotail and the PPs trigger the release of the stored energy.

Observatory geoelectric fields induced in a two-layer lithosphere during magnetic storms

We report on the development and validation of an algorithm for estimating geoelectric fields induced in the lithosphere beneath an observatory during a magnetic storm. To accommodate induction in three-dimensional lithospheric electrical conductivity, we analyze a simple nine-parameter model: two horizontal layers, each with uniform electrical conductivity properties given by independent distortion tensors. With Laplace transformation of the induction equations into the complex frequency domain, we obtain a transfer function describing induction of observatory geoelectric fields having frequency-dependent polarization. Upon inverse transformation back to the time domain, the convolution of the corresponding impulse-response function with a geomagnetic time series yields an estimated geoelectric time series. We obtain an optimized set of conductivity parameters using 1-s resolution geomagnetic and geoelectric field data collected at the Kakioka, Japan, observatory for five different intense magnetic storms, including the October 2003 Halloween storm; our estimated geoelectric field accounts for 93% of that measured during the Halloween storm. This work demonstrates the need for detailed modeling of the Earth’s lithospheric conductivity structure and the utility of co-located geomagnetic and geoelectric monitoring.

Ionospheric effects of solar flares and their associated particle ejections in March 2012

Flares of March 4–9, 2012 were accompanied by an intensification of solar electromagnetic and corpuscular radiations and five coronal mass ejections. Bursts of X-rays and increased solar cosmic ray fluxes caused an increase in ionospheric absorption manifesting itself in data from vertical sounding stations as enhancements of the lowest frequency of reflections up to 4–6MHz at the daytime and as the disappearance of reflections in the ionograms of high latitude stations. Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME) generated March 7–8 moderate and March 8–11 intense magnetic storms accompanied by ionospheric disturbances. At the peaks of both magnetic storms there were abrupt afternoon–evening decreases in the ionospheric F2-layer critical frequency (foF2). During the March 7–8 storm, the foF2 decrease concurred with the reversal of the interplanetary magnetic field azimuthal component (IMF By) which initiated restructuring of magnetospheric convection; during the March 8–11 storm, with the abrupt weakening of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component (IMF Bz) which triggered a substorm.

Geomagnetic storm intensity forecast caused by magnetic clouds of solar wind

Method of short-term forecast intensity of geomagnetic storms, expected by effect Solar wind magnetic clouds in the Earth’s magnetosphere is developed. The method is based calculation of the magnetic field clouds distribution, suitable to the Earth, the initial satellite measurements therein components of the interplanetary magnetic field in the solar ecliptic coordinate system. Conclusion about the magnetic storm intensity is expected on the basis of analysis of the dynamics of the reduced magnetic field Bz component clouds and established communication intensity of geomagnetic storms on Dst-index values and Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field vector.

Quantitative estimation of local geomagnetic activity relative to the level of the magnetically quiet period in 2009

A new method for determining geomagnetic activity based on calculation of the hourly amplitudes of geomagnetic field variations at ground-based observatories has been developed. Observations performed in 2009, when unusually low solar and geomagnetic activity was registered, were used as a reference level. The described method was used to estimate the energy of local geomagnetic activity; such energy is estimated for observatories in the Earth’s Northern and Southern hemispheres, and a total estimation is made for both hemispheres and for the entire Earth’s surface during large magnetic storms. These are used to compare characteristics of magnetic storm intensity based on the classical Kp and Dst indices and calculated energy estimate.

Correlation-based characterisation of time-varying dynamical complexity in the Earth's magnetosphere

Abstract. The dynamical behaviour of the magnetosphere is known to be a sensitive indicator for the response of the system to solar wind coupling. Since the solar activity commonly displays very interesting non-stationary and multi-scale dynamics, the magnetospheric response also exhibits a high degree of dynamical complexity associated with fundamentally different characteristics during periods of quiescence and magnetic storms. The resulting temporal complexity profile has been explored using several approaches from applied statistics, dynamical systems theory and statistical mechanics. Here, we propose an alternative way of looking at time-varying dynamical complexity of nonlinear geophysical time series utilising subtle but significant changes in the linear autocorrelation structure of the recorded data. Our approach is demonstrated to sensitively trace the dynamic signatures associated with intense magnetic storms, and to display reasonable skills in distinguishing between quiescence and storm periods. The potentials and methodological limitations of this new viewpoint are discussed in some detail.

Abnormal fb Es enhancements in equatorial Es layers during magnetic storms of solar cycle 23

We have analyzed the behavior of blanketing frequency of the Es layer (fb Es) occurring at an equatorial station covering the days before, during and subsequent to 24 intense and very intense magnetic storms (Dst≤−100nT) that occurred during the solar cycle 23. The fb Es was measured by digital ionosonde over São Luís, Brazil (2.33° S, 44.2° W, dip: −4.5°). Our analysis shows that there are significant changes in the fb Es, mainly during the recovery phase of magnetic storms, characterized by occurrence of peaks that exceed the ambient background values. Also, these peaks are associated to other types of sporadic E layer than the Esq (a non-blanketing layer detected due the plasma irregularities in the equatorial electrojet), which in turn means competing mechanisms. The results are discussed in terms of the statistics of the abnormal enhancement taking into account the phase of the magnetic storm.

Morphology of the G condition occurrence over Irkutsk

Using Irkutsk digisonde data obtained in 2003–2011, a morphological analysis of the G condition occurrence has been made. The G condition was found to occur during daylight hours in summer; in winter, it is extremely rare, and its appearance is associated with intense magnetic storms. In the years of moderate solar activity, the G condition is most frequently registered at Kp⩾4, in the forenoon. During low solar activity, it can be observed under quiet geomagnetic conditions; in most cases, local time of its appearance shifts to afternoon hours. The highest percentage of the G condition occurrence (7.7–6.4%) was recorded in June and July 2008 when the levels of solar and geomagnetic activity were abnormally low.

Wavelet analysis of geomagnetic field data

Variations in geomagnetic field data at different spectral frequencies and with different periods are observed during increased geomagnetic activity. The formed local structures depend on the field disturbance and contain information on the magnetic storm intensity and character of development. Numerical solutions and algorithms based on wavelet transforms, which make it possible to “automatically” detect periods of increased geomagnetic activity and identify and analyze the structures forming this process, have been proposed in order to study the time characteristics of geomagnetic field variations, using the H component as an example. The separated components, characterizing disturbances, make it possible to estimate variations in the field energy characteristics. An analysis of the constructed wavelet images makes it possible to trace the dynamics of variations in the H component the day before and during a magnetic storm.

Interplanetary origins of moderate (−100 nT &lt; Dst ≤ −50 nT) geomagnetic storms during solar cycle 23 (1996–2008)

The interplanetary causes of 213 moderate‐intensity (−100 nT &lt; peak Dst ≤ −50 nT) geomagnetic storms that occurred in solar cycle 23 (1996–2008) are identified. Interplanetary drivers such as corotating interaction regions (CIRs), pure high‐speed streams (HSSs), interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) of two types [those with magnetic clouds (MCs) and those without (nonmagnetic cloud or ICME_nc)], sheaths (compressed and/or draped sheath fields), as well as their combined occurrence were identified as causes of the storms. The annual rate of occurrence of moderate storms had two peaks, one near solar maximum and the other in the descending phase, around 3 years later. The highest rate of moderate storm occurrence was found in the declining phase (25 storms year−1). The lowest occurrence rate was 5.7 storms year−1 and occurred at solar minimum. All moderate‐intensity storms were associated with southward interplanetary magnetic fields, indicating that magnetic reconnection was the main mechanism for solar wind energy transfer to the magnetosphere. Most of these storms were associated with CIRs and pure HSSs (47.9%), followed by MCs and noncloud ICMEs (20.6%), pure sheath fields (10.8%), and sheath and ICME combined occurrence (9.9%). In terms of solar cycle dependence, CIRs and HSSs are the dominant drivers in the declining phase and at solar minimum. CIRs and HSSs combined have about the same level of importance as ICMEs plus their sheaths in the rising and maximum solar cycle phases. Thus, CIRs and HSSs are the main driver of moderate storms throughout a solar cycle but with variable contributions from ICMEs, their shocks (sheaths), and combined occurrence within the solar cycle. This result is significantly different than that for intense (Dst ≤ −100 nT) and superintense (Dst ≤ −250 nT) magnetic storms shown in previous studies. For superintense geomagnetic storms, 100% of the events were due to ICME events, while for intense storms, ICMEs, sheaths, and their combination caused almost 80% of the storms. CIRs caused only 13% of the intense storms. The typical interplanetary electric field (Ey) criteria for moderate magnetic storms were identified. It was found that ~80.1% of the storms follow the criterion of Ey ≥ 2 mV m−1 for intervals longer than 2 h. It is concluded that southward directed interplanetary magnetic fields within CIRs/HSSs may be the main energy source for long‐term averaged geomagnetic activity on Earth.

Great geomagnetic storms in 1841–1870 according to the data from the network of Russian geomagnetic observatories

Great magnetic storms (geomagnetic index C9 is ≥8 for St. Petersburg, which can correspond to Kp ≥ 8 or Dst < −200 nT), registered from 1841 to 1870 at the St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Barnaul, Nerchinsk, Sitka, and Beijing (at the Russian embassy) observatories are analyzed. A catalog of intensive magnetic storms during this period, which includes solar cycles 9–11, has been compiled. The statistical characteristics of great magnetic storms during this historical period have been obtained. These results indicate that high solar activity played a decisive role in the generation of very intense magnetic storms during the considered period. These storms are characterized by only one peak in a solar cycle, which was registered in the years of the cycle minimum (or slightly earlier): the number of great geomagnetic storms near the solar activity maximum was twice as large as the number of such storms during less active periods. A maximum in September–October and an additional maximum in February are observed in the annual distribution of storms. In addition, the storm intensity inversely depends on the storm duration.

Equatorial sporadic E-layer abnormal density enhancement during the recovery phase of the December 2006 magnetic storm: A case study

Sporadic layers appear in the equatorial region (Esq) between 90 and 130 km mainly due to irregularities in the electrojet equatorial (EEJ) current. In the present work, we have analyzed the behavior of the frequency parameters associated with these sporadic layers, covering the days before, during, and subsequent to, the intense magnetic storm that occurred on December 14, 2006. The parameters used in our analyses are the top frequency (ftEs) and blanketing frequency (fbEs) of the Es layer as measured over Sao Luis, Brazil (2.33°S, 44.2°W, dip: −4.5°) by digital ionosonde. A tentative association between these parameters and X-ray data measured by sensors on board the GOES satellite was carried out. Also, we investigated the effects on the dynamics of the equatorial electrojet using magnetometer data related to the presence of these Es layers. Our analyses show that there are notable changes in the fbEs, which are characterized by the occurrence of peaks that exceed the ambient background values.