Macroeconomic Perspective Research Articles

Microfinance et pauvreté multidimensionnelle dans la Communauté économique des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest (CEDEAO) : une perspective macro-économique

Cet article étudie, dans une perspective macro-économique, l’impact de la microfinance sur la pauvreté, sous l’angle du développement humain et des privations multidimensionnelles. Les estimations sur un panel de pays de la CEDEAO montrent que la microfinance est positivement et significativement associée aux indices dimensionnels du développement humain de santé et de revenu. Les résultats révèlent également qu’elle contribue aux objectifs de lutte contre la pauvreté en termes de privation dans les pays de la CEDEAO.

Writing Labor History Today: A Critical Note on The Case of the Roman Empire

Three recently published books raise the question of labor in the Roman Empire. The present article aims to investigate the sources privileged by historians, the scale of observation on which their analysis is situated, and the theoretical assumptions that guide them. These reflections show that there are multiple ways of writing labor history, currently divided into different subfields which do not always communicate with one another. Thanks to new readings of ancient literature and epigraphy, and the contribution of papyri and archaeology, the traditional history of work and trades has been widely renewed. An important line of questioning examines the reasons for the high degree of trade specialization in the Roman Empire, as well as the existence of a true division of labor. Archaeology helps us understand the technologies and processes of production, making it possible to establish a typology of the socioprofessional identities, from employers to employees, that existed in the shops and workshops of the Roman world. A quite different approach investigates the organization of labor from a macroeconomic perspective, seeing it as a force mobilized by employers: comparisons between the productivity of slaves and that of free workers have been replaced by analyses of the transaction costs of free hired labor versus servile manpower. Finally, debate continues between historians who consider that the labor market of the Roman Empire was limited by clientelist networks and servile labor, and those who describe a free-market economy where labor had become a commodity.

TAXATION OF EMPLOYEES IN ROMANIA IN 2018. CHANGES AND ITS RESULTS ON THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMY

The politico-economic context has a significant influence on the development of a country and the visions of the decision-makers together with the economic policies implemented are key elements in a country’s economic welfare. A decisive aspect of the economic policy is the fiscal framework, and when it is not at least stable, the entire economy suffers. In the recent period, in Romania, there have been various tax changes. The present paper analyses perhaps the most controversial tax change, namely, the shifting of social security contributions from the employer’s burden to the employee, along with the reduction of their rate and the reduction of the income tax rate. Implementation of such measures should be examined in terms of economic impact. One can notice that these changes have impact on three stakeholder categories: employees, employers and the state budget. Moreover, these changes must be correlated with other measures that are not directly related to the fiscal framework. At the same time, seeing an overview, one can analyze whether these changes could actually represent a starting point for moving from proportional taxation to progressive taxation. Through several impact assessments, this paper aims to analyze both from a micro and macroeconomic perspectives this tax changes and to offer a clear overview of the economic issues arisen. Such analyses will demonstrate the economic instability created through these measures.

University building: Energy diagnosis and refurbishment design with cost-optimal approach. Discussion about the effect of numerical modelling assumptions

The paper discusses a methodological approach for designing energy refurbishment measures basing on a deep energy diagnosis with in-situ measurements that allow the complete characterizations of building /HVAC system and the indoor conditions. Then, the Cost-Optimal approach is applied to compare several retrofit scenarios considering interventions both on the building envelope and on plant systems. The case study is a University building in heating dominated climate of South Italy. According to a macroeconomic perspective, with a discount rate of 3%, the package of energy efficiency measures that combines installation of heat recovery systems, regulation dispositive for HVAC and LED lamps with automatic control induces considerable energy saving and reduction of polluting emissions (−33%) as well as the largest reduction in the overall cost (−35%).Moreover, the importance to use validated models is examined exhaustively by proposing a sensitivity analysis on uncertainties due to modelling assumptions mainly referring to the adoption of stochastic schedules for occupant behaviour and equipment or lighting usage. First of all, this analysis shows that the calibration indexes are always dissatisfied; besides it is demonstrated that refurbishment design can appear more convenient, with wrong assumptions. For instance, one of proposed scenario brings to energy saving of −41% and reduction of global cost of around −36%.

Maximizing the sustainability net present value of renewable energy supply networks

This study presents an extension of a recently proposed concept and metric by the authors named “Sustainability profit” to “Sustainability net present value” for the purpose of synthesizing more sustainable large-scale energy supply networks. The concept and metric are based on a composite sustainability measurement considering economic, environmental and social pillars and expressed in monetary terms from a wider macro-economic perspective that combines both the governmental and the industrial view. By using the proposed metric, it is possible to obtain answers regarding the advisability of a particular investment in terms of sustainability. The concept is illustrated by two examples: (i) a smaller case study presenting an electricity supply network consuming fossil and/or renewable energy sources, and (ii) a larger-scale renewable energy supply network considering biomass, waste, solar, wind and geothermal energies on an EU continental scale. Solutions obtained to problems regarding maximizing Sustainability net present value occur at the trade-off between economic profitability, environmental (un)burdening, and new jobs created, considering the time value of the money involved.

WAKAF DAN PEMBANGUNAN EKONOMI

Waqf is one of Islam’s teachings that contain spiritual and material elements. Waqf is defined as something that is given for the usefulness of the people (as a charity) or for purposes related to Islam. This article aims to embrace the concept of waqf from the perspective of history, fiqh, and also macroeconomic perspective. The results show that waqf is one of Islamic teachings and also pre-Islamic teachings in providing their places of worship. From the fiqh perspective, fiqh scholars have explained the concept of waqf in the books of fiqh based on the al-Quran, the hadith and also their ijtihad. The concept of fiqh always undergoes development following the development of human reason. This is because the majority of waqf concepts are based on ijtihad which can change time and place. From the macroeconomic perspective, waqf property plays a role in building the necessary facilities of the community such as places of worship, educational institutions and also health centers. These facilities are believed to improve the quality of Human Resources (Sumber Daya Insani).

Financial stress and farm bankruptcies in US agriculture

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to evaluate farm financial stress within the USA over the past 20 years and the agricultural and economic factors which have impacted farm businesses. The effect of the 2005 Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act (BAPCPA) on farm financial stress is further evaluated. In particular, Chapter 12 bankruptcies – which can only be filed by farmers – were only a temporary measure until BAPCPA made Chapter 12 a permanent fixture in bankruptcy law.Design/methodology/approachChapter 12 bankruptcy filings from 1997 until 2016 are used as a proxy for farm financial stress. Panel fixed effects models are used to determine relevant factors affecting financial stress for farmers from agricultural and macroeconomic perspectives. Further, models incorporating pre- and post-BAPCPA regimes are utilized.FindingsThe results show that macroeconomic factors (interest and unemployment rates) are strong predictors of farm bankruptcies for farms while agricultural land values are the only consistent strong predictor among the agricultural factors. When evaluating the post-BAPCPA regime, only agricultural land values continue to be a significant predictor of farm bankruptcies. The findings also indicate a dynamic relationship with agricultural land values, where current year values are negatively related but previous year land values are positively related to bankruptcies.Originality/valueThe authors provide an analysis of the post-BAPCPA regime on farm bankruptcies that has not been evaluated within the literature yet. Further, the findings illuminate discussion on a potentially dynamic relationship with financial stress and agricultural land values.

Reserves for All? Central Bank Digital Currency, Deposits, and their (Non)-Equivalence

I offer a macroeconomic perspective on the Reserves for All (RFA) proposal to let the general public use electronic central bank money. After distinguishing RFA from cryptocurrencies and relating the proposal to discussions about narrow banking and the abolition of cash I propose an equivalence result according to which a marginal substitution of outside for inside money does not affect macroeconomic outcomes. I identify key conditions on bank and government (central bank) incentives for equivalence and argue that these conditions likely are violated, implying that RFA would change macroeconomic outcomes. I also relate my analysis to common arguments in the discussion about RFA and point to inconsistencies and open questions.

Monetary Policy and Long-Run Systemic Risk-Taking

As an extension to the literature on the risk-taking channel of monetary policy, this paper studies the existence of a systemic risk-taking channel (SRTC) in the Eurozone, through an original macroeconomic perspective based on causality measures. Because the SRTC is effective after an “incubation period”, we make a distinction between short and long-term causality, following the methodology proposed by Dufour and Taamouti (2010). We find that causality from monetary policy to systemic risk, while not significant in the very short term, robustly represents 75 to 100% of the total dependence between the two variables in the long run. Reverse causality is rejected: systemic risk did not influence the policy of the European Central Bank before the global financial crisis. However, central banks must be aware that a too loose monetary policy stance may be conducive to a build-up of systemic risk.

PPP – kein relevanter Beitrag zur Lösung der Infrastrukturprobleme in Deutschland

Abstract:Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) are the cooperation between the state and the private sector in the planning, realization, financing and operation of traditionally public services. In the area of road infrastructure, they are implemented as F-, A- or V-models. Statements on the profitability of PPP projects are always subject to case studies. As a rule, financing costs for PPPs will be higher than for conventional procurement. Cost savings in PPP, on the other hand, are empirically relatively low, since independent and transparent studies hardly exist. Finally, there are considerable doubts as to whether PPP projects contribute to an increase in efficiency from a macroeconomic perspective and deliver a relevant contribution to the solution of infrastructure problems in Germany. This seems especially to be true with respect to the intended establishment of a federal infrastructure company for motorways.

How Technological Efficiency Improvements Change Consumer Preferences: Towards a Psychological Theory of Rebound Effects

The use of technologies can influence consumer preferences and demand and hence, impact on environmental sustainability. This article contributes to research on ‘rebound effects’, which focus on how energy efficiency improvements (EEI) increase energy service demand. Most of 35years of rebound research has been analyzed from micro- and macro-economic perspectives. Yet, micro-economic rebound research has so far investigated human behavior only on grounds of simple rational choice models and static assumptions about consumer preferences. This article exposes the existing rebound discourse to psychological theories. Building on considerations of how EEI can interfere with processes of decision-making, it develops a model of how EEI – via psychological processes – may lead to ‘motivational rebound effects’ as well as to ‘beneficial effects’, which countervail rebounds. The article then advances a typology of such rebound and beneficial effects that not only integrates the typology currently used in the micro-economic rebound literature, but goes beyond it. Model and typology explain how economic rebound research could benefit from psychological theory, provide the basis for empirically investigating rebound effects on more solid theoretical grounds, and empower a comprehensive discussion about policies and measures that aim at a sustainable use of technologies.

Personal Bankruptcies from Macroeconomic Perspective

Abstract Personal bankruptcies are traditionally discussed from legal, microeconomic or social point of view. This paper focuses on the development of personal bankruptcies in the Czech Republic during the time period 2008-2016 and aims to connect performance of economy and the development of personal bankruptcies. As statistical tools there are used descriptive statistics and regression and correlation analysis. For the economy performance are used the measures of GDP, unemployment rate, household indebtedness and share of debts in default. Based on the results of the analysis there shall be said that lower economic performance influences increasing number of personal bankruptcies. This conclusion has significant consequences for the government and its politics, banks and other financial institutions.

The Tale of Two Cities: Institutional Evolution and Economic Upgrading in Shenzhen and Dongguan

This paper adds to the contribution by existing scholarly works about divergence in institutional evolution and its impact on economic and industrial upgrading in Shenzhen and Dongguan. The two cities, located in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, have long been known as both ‘workshop of the world’ and Hong Kong’s ‘back-door factory’. However, the divergence in terms of the two cities’ development trajectory has become very considerable. In this paper, instead of analyzing only a sector-specific case, this paper analyzes the performance trajectories of the two cities from a macroeconomic perspective. Using statistical data from China Data Online, I found that although gaps between the two cities remain large, Dongguan has begun to outperform Shenzhen in terms of its growth rate, particularly in research and development (R&D), high-technology industries, as well as advanced manufacturing. The findings support the argument by Fu et al. (2012, 2013) that Shenzhen’s development has been primarily driven by combined top-down and bottom-up initiatives, while that of Dongguan has largely relied only on bottom-up initiatives alone. Moreover, the leadership factor is similarly pivotal in determining the trajectories of the two cities.

Chetan Ghate and Ken Kletzer (eds.): Monetary policy in India: A modern macroeconomic perspective

Chetan Ghate and Ken Kletzer (eds.): Monetary policy in India: A modern macroeconomic perspective

Multiple Regression-Based Calculation of Iron Ore Resource Royalty Rate and Analytical Study of Its Influencing Factors: Example from Anhui Province of China

Mineral resource royalty is the economic manifestation of mineral resource ownership benefits. In the context of globalized mineral resource allocation, it is inevitable to research the royalty evaluation in order to improve the marketized allocation efficiency of mineral resources. Current studies mostly include theoretical discussions on connotations of royalty and discussions on royalty levy criteria from the macroeconomic perspective. Studies of royalty calculation and application from the microeconomic perspective are not very common. Based on defining the connotations of equity value, a theoretical royalty calculation formula is suggested first in this paper and then a royalty evaluation model is constructed from the perspective of mineral resource endowment conditions with the methods of multiple regression-based analysis and dummy variables. The feasibility and scientific justification of the evaluation model were verified through empirical analysis of iron mines in Anhui Province of China. Compared to previous studies, this paper better interprets the linear relationship between mineral resource endowment conditions and royalty through simulation analysis of their corresponding relation, making up for the inadequacy of macroeconomic royalty studies. Empirical results indicate the following. (1) Endowment conditions of mineral resources are the key influencing factors of royalty rate, and five of these factors (average geological grade, average mining depth, average ore body thickness, hydrogeological condition and beneficial and harmful elements) are important indices in royalty evaluation. (2) Royalty increases with the price rise in the market of mineral products, but the royalty rate will infinitely approach a constant (60.1%). Based on endowment conditions of mineral resources, the royalty evaluation model constructed in this paper can accurately and objectively evaluate mineral resource royalty in different endowment conditions and provide a convenient and practical evaluation method for establishing royalty levy criteria.

Monetary policy and long-run systemic risk-taking

As an extension to the literature on the risk-taking channel of monetary policy, this paper studies the existence of a systemic risk-taking channel (SRTC) in the Eurozone, through an original macroeconomic perspective based on causality measures. Because the SRTC is effective after an “incubation period”, we make a distinction between short and long-term causality, following the methodology proposed by Dufour and Taamouti (2010). We find that causality from monetary policy to systemic risk, while not significant in the very short term, robustly represents 75 to 100% of the total dependence between the two variables in the long run. Reverse causality is rejected: systemic risk did not influence the policy of the European Central Bank before the global financial crisis. However, central banks must be aware that a too loose monetary policy stance may be conducive to a build-up of systemic risk.

Social Justice and Capitalism: An Assessment of the Teachings of Pope Francis from a Law and Macroeconomics Perspective

Pope Francis’s application and extension of longstanding Catholic social teachings to compelling contemporary problems helps to focus attention on such problems. Global economic inequality and growing economic inequality in the United States has already imposed trillions in excess costs on the economy for the enhanced wealth of a relative handful of global elites. Now global warming promises another massive wealth transfer of trillions of dollars from the global economy and the poorest among us for the benefit of a small number of energy industry elites. This article puts the teachings of Pope Francis on inequality and the environment in macroeconomic perspective.

The effect of ICT adoption on labour demand: A cross‐region comparison

AbstractThis paper assesses the information and communications technologies (ICT)‐labour relationship from a macroeconomic perspective to clarify some ambiguity regarding the overall employment effect of ICT adoption in the short and long term. For that, we use two panel data techniques, generalized method of moments (GMM) and the pooled mean group model (PMG), on a large sample of developing and developed countries, covering five regions, during the period from 1990–2015. Our findings provide evidence that the overall impact of ICT adoption is labour saving in the short term, and this adverse effect still carries on in the long run, inducing higher structural unemployment. The displacement of the labour market induced by ICT adoption is real, persistent, and universal. Policy‐makers should facilitate the transition of labour from old to new jobs and reduce the period of adaptability.

Reflection Paper on the Deepening of the Economic and Monetary Union — Evaluation from a Macroeconomic Perspective

In ihrem Reflexionspapier zur Vertiefung der Wirtschafts- und Währungsunion legt die EU-Kommission auch Vorschläge für eine stärkere Integration der Wirtschafts- und Fiskalunion vor. Während einige Vorschläge eindeutig positiv zu werten sind, bleibt die entscheidende Interaktion zwischen zielführenden strukturellen Reformen, makroökonomischer Stabilisierung und einer dynamischen gesamtwirtschaftlichen Politikausrichtung, basierend auf wissenschaftlicher Expertise und Kooperation aller politischen Akteure, ausgeblendet.

A ROBUST ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NATURAL DISASTERS, ELECTRICITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN 41 COUNTRIES

(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. INTRODUCTIONNatural disasters are now better known. They are well investigated and mapped both locally and global scale. Natural disasters are liable to cause serious economic and social disruption. The immediate damage is decrease production, expenditures and the number of hours worked. According to the data reported by EM-DAT, Americas suffered in 2014 from 76 natural disasters and the damage reached US$ 25.8 billion. On the other side, Africa suffered from 39 natural disasters, a number far below its 2004-2013 annual average. According to EM-DAT (2014), the damages from natural disasters in European countries represent approximately US$ 7.8 billion.The occurrence of natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, storms and volcanic eruptions have negative effects on the electrical system operation. The earthquakes that have hit several countries such as China, Italy, Japan and the United States have severe impact economic, environmental and human. In addition, they destroyed their power system equipment.The response of the authorities has led in practice by the implementation of prevention and risk management systems evolving since the 1980s, resulting in an abundance of tools and acronyms that thwarts their ownership all players. In the period immediately following the event, reconstruction efforts are offset these losses and, paradoxically, create a net stimulatory effect on economic growth. To achieve this objective, it is necessary to measure or estimate economic costs of such disasters. In this sense, many studies have examined the debate in a macro-economic perspective by exploring how disasters affect real GDP per capita.In general, economic effects due to disasters can be classified into two categories: direct damage and indirect damage. The main findings shown that the direct effects of natural disasters depend on the level of development of the affected countries (Kahn, 2005).Most empirical studies have shown that natural disasters have a negative indirect damage in short-term, such as effects on economic growth (Noy, 2009; Fomby et al., 2013). Although long-term studies are still relatively rare and yet failed to provide consistent results (Skidmore and Toya, 2002; Noy and Nualsri, 2007; Jaramillo, 2009.).The contribution of this article is to assess the effects of natural disaster on economic growth, physical capital, labor and electricity. Furthermore, our study of literature suggests that few studies have examined the impact of natural disaster on the electricity. For this purpose, we use a Panel data and Granger causality-VECM model, including four types of disasters (earthquakes, storms, floods and droughts) in about 41 countries over the period 1990 to 2014.The sections of this paper presented as follows. The literature review section presents a brief literature review. The data section details the data used in the empirical part. The descriptive statistics and correlation matrix section summarizes the key statistics and correlation of the total variables. The model specification section describes the econometric method. The estimation methods and empirical results section discusses the empirical findings. Finally, conclusion and policy implications section.2. REVIEW OF THE RELEVANT LITERATURE2.1.Natural Disaster and Economic GrowthThere is a considerable attention in literature about the impact of natural disaster on economic growth. For instance, Albala-Bertrand (1993) investigated the effects of natural disaster on the economy and society in developing countries. He concluded that in reality disasters do not represent a problem for development. Benson (1997a, b, and c), Benson and Clay (1998, 2001) evaluated the impact of natural disasters on economic growth in some countries such as Fiji, Vietnam, Philippines, and Dominica. The findings showed that disasters shocks have a severe negative short-run economic consequence, with increase of property, and worsening inequalities. …