Abstract The current study used a longitudinal multi-country cohort survey (N = 8013 at baseline; age (M) = 40.3, SD = 15; female 76%) to investigate whether psychological distress assessed at five waves (May-June 2020; September-October 2020; December 2020-January 2021; March-April 2021 and March-May 2022) during the COVID-19 outbreak can be forecasted by a variety of socio-demographic and psychological- and COVID-related factors assessed at baseline. Psychological distress was defined by elevated depression and/or anxiety scores (PHQ-9 and GAD-7 > = 10). Predictors included demographic characteristics (e.g., gender, age, education), infections with COVID-19, loss of income, substance abuse, domestic violence, contamination fear, basic value orientations, social support and coping strategies. A Random Forest (RF) prediction model within a machine learning context was used to estimate the association between the independent variables and the presence of psychological distress among respondents completing all waves (N = 1052). Preliminary RF results showed that psychological distress at multiple waves, both during the initial phases (2020) as well as the more protracted phases (2021 and 2022), was adequately forecasted by scores on a number of basic value orientations (e.g., lower tradition and conformity, higher security and predictability), by demographic characteristics (e.g., younger age), by the fear of being contaminated, and by lower levels of social support and higher levels of loneliness. It is concluded that during a pandemic, certain personal values may elicit more vulnerability for psychological distress than others. Effective psychological intervention strategies should encompass personal traits and values and factors such as low social support levels and feelings of loneliness to mitigate distress. These insights can help in accurately pinpointing high-risk groups for heightened distress in future public health crises.
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