INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Despite optimal imaging, occult lymph node (LN) metastases are found in 25% of patients with muscle invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) undergoing radical cystectomy (RC). These patients are at high risk for subsequent disease recurrence and death. Better prediction of LN metastases is warranted to improve patient management. METHODS: Transcriptome expression profiles of 199 RC samples were generated using a 1.4 million feature Human Exon microarray. All patients underwent RC and extended pelvic LN dissection (1998-2004) at the University of Southern California. The patient cohort was divided into a discovery set (n1⁄4133) and a validation set (n1⁄466). In the discovery set, features were identified using a Wilcoxon test and modeled into a K-nearest neighbor (KNN) classifier for LN metastases prediction. Two additional gene signatures, the 15 gene cancer recurrence signature (Mitra2014) and 20 gene LN signature (Smith2011) were also modeled in the discovery set for comparison. Area under the curve (AUC) and odds ratios (OR) were used to compare the performance of these signatures in the validation set. RESULTS: The KNN51 model was developed from 133 radical cystectomy patients to predict LN metastases. In the validation set, this model achieved an AUC of 0.82 [0.71 e 0.93] for predicting LN positive patients, significantly outperforming Mitra2014 and Smith2011 which had AUCs of 0.62 [0.47 e 0.76] and 0.46 [0.32 e 0.60], respectively. Only KNN51hadsignificantodds for predictingLNmetastasiswith anORof2.65 [1.68 4.67] for every 10% increase in score (p1⁄4 0.0002). Both Mitra2011 and Smith2011 were not found to have significant odds ratios of 1.21 [0.97 e 1.54, p 1⁄4 0.09] and 1.39 [0.52 e 3.77, p 1⁄4 0.5], respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The integrated expression of 51 genes in primary MIBC was successfully used to predict LN metastases and was superior to previously described gene signatures. If validated in TURBT samples, KNN51 could be used to guide the extent of pelvic LN dissection and to direct high risk patients towards treatment intensification, for example with neoadjuvant chemotherapy.
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