Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks Research Articles

LUMPY SKIN DISEASE: AN ENCROACHING RISK IN CATTLE FARMING

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a vector-borne disease of cattle and water buffalo caused by the lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) of the Capripoxvirus genus. LSD mainly affects the skin and the lymphatics of animals, and manifests as firm skin nodules, low feed intake, and a drop in milk production. Animal-to-animal contact, blood-feeding insects, animal products, stable flies, and mosquitoes can facilitate the transmission of LSD across herds and borders. The first case of LSD was reported in 1929 in Zambia. It was endemic to Africa until 1985 and later spread to Eastern Europe and Asia. The latest outbreak of LSD was reported in the Asia-Pacific region. At present, biosafety measures (control of animal movement, vectors, and animal products) are being devised by authorities to tackle LSD. Vaccines are also being developed for LSDV in recent decades. Live attenuated vaccines of both homologous and heterologous (of the Capripoxvirus genus) virus strains were utilized. A few side effects of the live vaccines were observed, such as skin nodules, low feed intake, and a drop in milk production. Inactivated LSDV vaccines were produced, showing a higher safety profile than live vaccines, yet offering only partial protection and lacks cross-protection. Recombinant LSDV vaccines are also under development; however, challenges remain in terms of the best vaccine delivery methods and antigen selection from the large poxvirus genome. Overall, mass vaccination with an effective vaccine may play a central role in the control of LSDV.

The impact of mass vaccination policy and control measures on lumpy skin disease cases in Thailand: insights from a Bayesian structural time series analysis.

In 2021, Thailand reported the highest incidence of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks in Asia. In response to the widespread outbreaks in cattle herds, the government's livestock authorities initiated comprehensive intervention measures, encompassing control strategies and a national vaccination program. Yet, the efficacy of these interventions remained unevaluated. This research sought to assess the nationwide intervention's impact on the incidence of new LSD cases through causal impact analysis. Data on weekly new LSD cases in Thailand from March to September 2021 was analyzed. The Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) analysis was employed to evaluate the causal relationship between new LSD cases in the pre-intervention phase (prior to the vaccination campaign) and the post-intervention phase (following the vaccination campaign). The assessment involved two distinct scenarios, each determined by the estimated effective intervention dates. In both scenarios, a consistent decline in new LSD cases was observed after the mass vaccination initiative, while other control measures such as the restriction of animal movement, insect control, and the enhancement of the active surveillance approach remained operational throughout the pre-intervention and the post-intervention phases. According to the relative effect results obtained from scenario A and B, it was observed that the incidence of LSD cases exhibited reductions of 119% (95% Credible interval [CrI]: -121%, -38%) and 78% (95% CrI: -126, -41%), respectively. The BSTS results underscored the significant influence of these interventions, with a Bayesian one-sided tail-area probability of p < 0.05. This model-based study provides insight into the application of BSTS in evaluating the impact of nationwide LSD vaccination based on the national-level data. The present study is groundbreaking in two respects: it is the first study to quantify the causal effects of a mass vaccination intervention on the LSD outbreak in Thailand, and it stands as the only endeavor of its kind in the Asian context. The insights collected from this study hold potential value for policymakers in Thailand and other countries at risk of LSD outbreaks.

A new variant of lumpy skin disease virus circulating in Vietnam based on sequencing analysis of GPCR gene.

In 2021, Vietnam experienced an outbreak of Lumpy skin disease (LSD), which infected 207,687 cattle and buffaloes, as officially reported, and resulted in the culling of 29,182 animals. In this study, samples from cattle that died and showed typical signs of LSD in the Ha Tinh province of Vietnam were confirmed by three World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH)-recommended methods and further studied to compare the Vietnam and China reference strains to the new clinical cases. Three methods recommended by WOAH for agent detection (PCR, virus isolation, and transmission electron microscopy) were used to confirm this clinical LSD case. The sequence analysis of three well-known markers (P32, RPO30, and GPCR genes) has been utilized in Vietnam to understand this circulating pathogen better. Our findings showed that the CX01 LSDV strain is 100% identical to the Vietnam reference strain HL01 and China reference strains based on P32 and RPO30 genes. Interestingly, analysis of the nucleotide sequence of the GPCR gene showed that the CX01 strain belongs to the same cluster as the reference strains, but it has branches different from those of both the HL01 and China LSDV strains. The nucleotide identification between the CX01 strain and these reference virus strains ranked 99.65%-99.91%, suggesting that it is a new variant of LSDV. This finding is new and indicates that at least two variants of the LSD virus were circulating in Vietnam based on analysis of the GPCR gene. Additionally, these results suggest that the sequence analysis of the GPCR gene is a great tool for subgrouping LSDV circulating in Vietnam.

Epidemiological Characteristics of the Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreak in Nawalpur, Nepal, 2022

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an economically important and notifiable transboundary viral disease of cattle and water buffalo, predominantly transmitted by arthropod vectors. In recent times, LSD has emerged as a notable concern in Nepal, with the first outbreak reported in June 2020, in Morang district. In 2022, outbreaks of LSD were observed in several districts with Nawalpur district being the hard‐hit district. The objective of this study is to provide insights into the epidemiological characteristics of LSD, to identify potential sources and associated risk factors for LSD outbreak in Nawalpur, and its financial impact. The overall morbidity rate was observed to be 28.02% (n = 431/1,538) and the mortality rate was 3.06% (n = 47/1,538), resulting in a case fatality rate of 10.90% (n = 47/431). The predominant clinical symptoms were skin nodules, lameness, and decreased milk production in milking animals. Dry cattle, including pregnant cows and cattle heifers were the most affected. Univariable logistic regression analysis identified factors linked to disease outbreaks, such as importing animals from disease prevalent regions, sharing feed and water, herd size, and the presence of clinical signs in neighboring farms. Multivariable analysis highlighted the significance of neighboring farms having sick animals in resulting disease outbreaks. Because of the substantial economic impact due to LSD, it is imperative to implement effective control and preventive measures. These include animal movement control and quarantine, following biosecurity protocols during nearby outbreaks, and targeted vaccination of susceptible populations to prevent further disease spread.

Prevalence and risk factor analysis of lumpy skin disease in cattle population of Banskhali Upazila, Chattogram, Bangladesh

Objective: This investigation aimed at assessing the outbreak scenario of the disease in Banskhali Upazila, Chattogram district, Bangladesh. The epidemic was recorded in several areas of Bangladesh, but Banskhali Upazila was rarely mentioned in references. The study evaluated clinical features, and treatment protocol and identified risk factors associated with lumpy skin disease (LSD) in the cattle population of the study area. Materials and Methods: In the four months leading up to December 2020, 53 incidents involving cattle of four different ages and two different breeds were observed in Upazila Veterinary Hospital (UVH), Banskhali, Chattogram. 19 of them had been presumptively diagnosed with LSD based on the owners’ complaints, clinical histories, skin lesions unique to LSD, and associated risk factors. Results: The overall clinical prevalence of LSD was 35.85%, with a mortality rate of 1.88%. Fever and distinctive skin nodules were consistently noted at the highest frequency in affected cattle. Male (39.39%), crossbred (19.35%), and non-vaccinated (40%) cattle showed a significantly higher prevalence of the disease compared to their counterparts. Autohemotherapy, coupled with the administration of the antiviral drug acyclovir, systemic antibiotics such as streptopenicillin (36.84%), and the use of analgesics, anti-inflammatory agents, and antihistamines, were routinely utilized as supportive treatments for the disease. Conclusion: Strict quarantine, vector control, recording of outbreak pattern recording, and prophylactic vaccination may be the best treatments for lowering the disease’s risk factors for the disease. These findings may provide essential groundwork for further investigations to prevent further relapses or outbreaks of LSD in the future.

Prevalence and progression of Lumpy Skin Disease cases in cattle over the six months leading up to Eid al-Adha in 2023 in the Cirebon District of West Java Province, Indonesia

Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) is a disease of ruminant caused by virus of Capripox genus Poxviridae family which result in skin damage up to leave deep holes in the muscle of cattle and even death. The morbidity rate of LSD is quite high but the mortality rate is low. The LSD outbreak was quite disturbing for the people, especially leading up to Eid al-Adha because the legal requirements for sacrificial animals are that they are healthy and without defects. The aim of this paper was to determine prevalence and progression of LSD in cattle in Cirebon District from January to June 2023 or over the six months leading up to Eid al-Adha in 2023. Data on LSD infected, recovered, forcibly slaughtered and killed cattle due to LSD were needed. During this period, LSD has spread to 82 villages in 32 sub-districts with 454 cases out of a total cattle population of 4373 (prevalence was 10.83%). Meanwhile, the progression of LSD cases have improved with a significant cure rate of 137 cattle in response to LSD treatment.

Epidemiological Study of Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Egypt Based on Viral Isolation and Molecular Detection

Epidemiological Study of Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Egypt Based on Viral Isolation and Molecular Detection

A Systematic Review on Lumpy Skin Disease

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) results in significant financial setbacks for the livestock sector. This condition is instigated by the Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV), a member of the Poxviridae family, and the Neethling strain serves as its reference or prototype. LSDV is a member of the Capripoxvirus genus, which also includes the sheep pox and goat pox viruses. LSD is an enzootic, contagious, eruptive, and seldom lethal illness of cattle defined by skin nodules. The only impacted animal species are cattle and water buffalo, which have significant morbidity rates but minimal death. But calf mortality rates are greater. LSD impairs the production of milk and beef, results in female miscarriages, and makes males sterile. The initial outbreaks of Lumpy skin disease (LSD) were first documented in Zambia in the year 1929. LSD's origins date back to 1929 in Zambia. In Africa, LSD is seen as an endemic illness. In 1984, the illness was spread outside of Africa. It has been documented in Madagascar and a few Middle Eastern and Arab Gulf countries. Recent reports of the sickness in LSD-free nations (Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Turkey, Iran and Iraq) with possible financial harm to the cattle sector. Both the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) have issued warnings regarding the potential for the transmission of diseases to result in substantial economic repercussions. This disease diminishes the milk production of cows due to the presence of oral ulcers, which weaken the animals and cause a loss of appetite. The objective of this review article is to examine Lumpy skin disease (LSD) in the context of the current situation, particularly in relation to the growing concern about the disease spreading to countries that have thus far remained LSD-free.

The first outbreak of lumpy skin disease in Jeollabuk-do, Korea

The first outbreak of lumpy skin disease in Jeollabuk-do, Korea

Review on the Economic Impacts of Lumpy Skin Disease of Cattle and Its Prevention and Control Strategies in Ethiopia

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an infectious disease of cattle, caused by a Lumpy Skin Disease Virus. It is an economically important viral disease of cattle affecting all ages and breeds that can be prevented by vaccination in endemic regions including Ethiopia. LSD is an OIE listed disease because of considerable financial losses and in Ethiopia due to the endemic nature of LSD; the country is facing serious difficulties in exporting live cattle and their products. In addition, this situation contributes a negative impact on the national economic growth through the loss of meat and milk production and poor quality of skin and hides. Serious economic losses can follow outbreaks that have a high morbidity and high mortality rates of 40 percent or more have been encountered. There is no specific antiviral treatment available for LSD-infected cattle. The disease is now the problem of almost all the regions and agro ecological zones of Ethiopia. Major outbreaks of LSD have been occurred in different regions of Ethiopia. Two vaccines, however, Neethling and Kenya sheep and goat pox virus, have been used widely in Africa with success. Preventing movement the diseased animals along with vector control, regular annual vaccinations and awareness creation for cattle owners play great role in disease prevention and control. The disease outbreak was observed in the cattle regardless of previous vaccination with Kenyan sheep- and goat pox vaccine the occurrence of LSD outbreak scale, despite the use of a vaccination regime, is suggestive of vaccine failure. Apparent emerging vaccine failure is a serious problem for efficient control of LSD, as the disease has been manifested by high morbidity and mortality rates, regardless of vaccination status. Consequently continuous surveillance on the status of the disease and genetic information on circulating field viruses is mandatory in order to take effective measures for the control of the disease in the country.

The first lumpy skin disease outbreak in cattle in Kazakhstan

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an emerging trans-boundary viral disease of cattle originating from the African continent. Here, we describe the first LSD outbreak reported in the Republic of Kazakhstan in July 2016, as well as associated clinical manifestations of the disease, diagnostic methods, and control measures taken to combat further spread of the pathogen. To determine the cause of the disease, samples were taken from sick and dead animals, as well as from insects and ticks. LSDV DNA was detected by PCR in all samples from dead animals and ticks (Dermacentor marginatus and Hyalomma asiaticum), in 14.29% of samples from horseflies (Tabanus bromius), and in one of the samples from two Stomoxys calcitrans flies. The reproductive LSD virus was isolated from organs of dead cattle and insects in the culture of LT and MDBK cells. The virus accumulated in cell cultures of LT and MDBK at the level of the third passage with titers in the range of 5.5–5.75 log 10 TCID50/cm3.During the outbreak, the number of affected cattle within an epidemiological unit reached 459 cattle out of 3557 registered susceptible cattle, with 12.90% morbidity and 0.96% mortality. This manuscript presents the epidemiological situation; the diagnosis; the control measures, including mass vaccination; and the stamping out campaign.

Epidemiological and economic consequences of lumpy skin disease outbreaks on farm households in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.

The livestock sector plays a crucial role in sustaining the livelihoods of millions of families across the world, especially in developing countries. However, farming households that rely on agriculture and livestock are particularly susceptible to the impacts of various infectious diseases and natural disasters. This study focuses on estimating the economic burden imposed on households by lumpy skin disease (LSD) in Pakistan and explores the effect of various socioeconomic factors on mortality ratio. Data were collected through a questionnaire survey from 406 farmers and were analyzed through descriptive statistics to calculate the monetary losses. In addition, the study employed fractional probit regression to identify factors affecting mortality ratio. The results demonstrate significant economic impacts of LSD on farm households in Pakistan, leading to direct and indirect losses and reduced milk productivity. Exotic cows were found to be more susceptible to mortality compared to indigenous cows. The study also found that farmers' education, experience, household income per month, vaccination, domestic-commercial, commercial animals, and access to information were negatively associated with mortality. The findings of this study emphasize the need for preventative measures such as affordable vaccines, treatment, and improved livestock health and welfare to mitigate the negative effects of LSD on farmers' income and the local economy.

Identifying the patterns and sizes of the first lumpy skin disease outbreak clusters in Northern Thailand with a high degree of dairy farm aggregation using spatio-temporal models

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is one of the most important notifiable transboundary diseases affecting cattle in many parts of the world. In Thailand, LSD outbreaks in cattle farming areas have been reported in 69 out of 77 provinces, indicating a serious nationwide situation. Understanding the dynamics of spatial and temporal LSD epidemic patterns can provide important information on disease transmission and control. This study aims to identify spatial and temporal clusters in the first LSD outbreaks in dairy farming areas with a high degree of aggregation in Northern Thailand using spatio-temporal models. The data were obtained from an official LSD outbreak investigation conducted between June and August 2021 on dairy farms (n = 202). The outbreak of LSD was confirmed by employing clinical observations and laboratory analysis. The spatio-temporal models including space-time permutation (STP), Poisson, and Bernoulli were applied to the outbreak data with the settings of 10%, 25%, and 50%, respectively, for the maximum reported cluster size (MRCS). Overall, the number of most likely and secondary clusters varied depending on the model and MRCS settings. All MRCS settings in the STP model detected the most likely clusters in the same area and the Poisson models in different areas, with the largest being defined by a 50% MRCS. Although the sizes of the most likely clusters identified by the Bernoulli models were different, they all had the same cluster period. Based on the sizes of the detected clusters, strict LSD insect-vector control should be undertaken within one kilometer of the outbreak farm in areas where no LSD vaccination has been administered. This study determines the sizes and patterns of LSD outbreak clusters in the dairy farming area with a high degree of farm aggregation. The spatio-temporal study models used in this study, along with multiple adjusted MRCS, provide critical epidemiological information. These models also expand the options for assisting livestock authorities in facilitating effective LSD prevention and control programs. By prioritizing areas for resource allocation, these models can help improve the efficiency of such programs.

Estimating the Transmission Kernel for Lumpy Skin Disease Virus from Data on Outbreaks in Thailand in 2021.

Nationwide outbreaks of lumpy skin disease (LSD) were observed in Thailand in 2021. A better understanding of its disease transmission is crucial. This study utilized a kernel-based approach to characterize the transmission of LSD between cattle herds. Outbreak data from the Khon Kaen and Lamphun provinces in Thailand were used to estimate transmission kernels for each province. The results showed that the majority of herd-to-herd transmission occurs over short distances. For Khon Kaen, the median transmission distance from the donor herd was estimated to be between 0.3 and 0.8 km, while for Lamphun, it ranged from 0.2 to 0.6 km. The results imply the critical role that insects may play as vectors in the transmission of LSD within the two study areas. This is the first study to estimate transmission kernels from data on LSD outbreaks in Thailand. The findings from this study offer valuable insights into the spatial transmission of this disease, which will be useful in developing prevention and control strategies.

Global Burden of Lumpy Skin Disease, Outbreaks, and Future Challenges.

Lumpy skin disease (LSD), a current global concern, causes economic devastation in livestock industries, with cattle and water buffalo reported to have higher morbidity and lower mortality rates. LSD is caused by lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV), a member of the Poxviridae family. It is an enzootic, rapidly explorative and sometimes fatal infection, characterized by multiple raised nodules on the skin of infected animals. It was first reported in Zambia in 1929 and is considered endemic in Africa south of the Sahara desert. It has gradually spread beyond Africa into the Middle East, with periodic occurrences in Asian and East European countries. Recently, it has been spreading in most Asian countries including far East Asia and threatens incursion to LSD-free countries. Rapid and accurate diagnostic capabilities, virus identification, vaccine development, vector control, regional and international collaborations and effective biosecurity policies are important for the control, prevention, and eradication of LSD infections. This review critically evaluates the global burden of LSD, the chronological historical outbreaks of LSD, and future directions for collaborative global actions.

Assessment of Humoral Immune Response in Pre- and Post-Vaccinated Cattle Against Lumpy Skin Disease.

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is viral disease affecting cattle production and productivity in Ethiopia. As a prevention method, vaccinations have been used for a long period with a questionable output due to the existence of LSD outbreaks in vaccinated herds in different parts of Ethiopia. A longitudinal study was performed from October 2019 to April 2020 with the objective of assessing the humoral immune response of cattle with a serum neutralization test (SNT) from different management systems in central Ethiopia. In this study, theserum was collected from 113 cattle (extensive (60/113) and intensive (53/113) management systems) before and after vaccination. From collected sera, a limited number of cattle had seroconversion before vaccination (7.08%). On the other hand, it is obvious the seroconversion rises post vaccination. Accordingly, seroconversion starts to increase after a week (8.85% at 7 dpv) post-vaccination which proceeds to significantly increase at 30 days post vaccination (dpv) (41.65% (25/60)). Furthermore, the risk factor study before and after vaccination showed intensively managed cattle with significantly higher levels of antibody titer at 7 dpv (OR = 1.17; 95% CI = 0.22, 6.2; p = 0.016) and 30 dpv (OR = 3.67; 95% CI = 1.1, 12.29; p = 0.035) compared with that of extensively managed cattle. The other animal-related risk factor that showed a significant difference was breeds and a specific age group ([4½, 7] years) at 15 dpv (OR = 6.69; 95% CI = 2.02, 22.08; p = 0.002) and 30 dpv (OR = 4.24; 95% CI = 1.22, 14.71; p = 0.023); respectively. This study showed an overall lower antibody detection across the study, posing a question on the current LSD-vaccine efficacy. Therefore, a circulating strain of LSDV should be cross-checked with the vaccine strain and adaptations should be made from it.

Global Risk Assessment of the Occurrence of Bovine Lumpy Skin Disease: Based on an Ecological Niche Model

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a highly contagious disease in bovine animals. An outbreak of LSD can cause devastating economic losses to the cattle industry. To investigate the distribution characteristics of historical LSD epidemics, LSD was divided into four phases for directional distribution analysis based on trends in epidemic prevalence. Ecological niche models were developed for LSD as well as for two vectors (Stomoxys calcitrans and Aedes aegypti), and global predictive maps were generated for the probability of LSD occurrence and the potential distribution of the two LSD vectors. The models had good predictive performance (the AUC values were 0.894 for the LSD model, 0.911 for the S. calcitrans model, and 0.950 for the A. aegypti model). The LSD combined vector prediction map was generated by combining the distribution maps of Stomoxys calcitrans and Aedes aegyptiwith fuzzy overlay tool in ArcGIS. The LSD combined vector prediction map was combined with the LSD prediction map to generate the LSD vector transmission risk map. The eastern and northwestern regions of North America, the eastern and northern regions of South America, the central and southern regions of Africa, the southern region of Europe, the northwestern and southeastern regions of Asia, and the eastern region of Australia were predicted to provide suitable environmental conditions for the occurrence of LSD. Cattle density, buffalo density, and bio2 (mean diurnal range) were identified as key variables for the occurrence of LSD. The findings of this study can be useful to policymakers in developing and implementing preventive measures of LSD for the health of cattle and the cattle industry.

The Spread of Lumpy Skin Disease Virus across Southeast Asia: Insights from Surveillance

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a notifiable, transboundary disease, causing substantial economic and welfare impacts in cattle. Prior to October 2020, LSD had not been reported in Southeast Asia; however, on 5 October 2020, Vietnam reported the first case in the region. This study aimed to investigate the initial spread of LSD virus (LSDV) in cattle across Southeast Asia between October 2020 and October 2021. LSD outbreak data were accessed from the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) World Animal Health Information System (WAHIS) database and analysed to investigate this spread via epidemic curves, disease maps, clustering, and descriptive statistics. During the epidemic period, 866 LSD outbreaks were reported from six Southeast Asian countries, consisting of 1,758,923 susceptible cattle, 93,465 cases, 5,936 deaths, and 1,117 cattle culled. Analysis revealed a propagated epidemic throughout Southeast Asia, with four major peaks in case numbers across Thailand and Vietnam. Three clusters of reported outbreaks were identified, and Thailand was found to be the epicentre of the outbreak in the region, which could reflect reporting bias and underreporting from other countries in Southeast Asia. High morbidity and mortality rates were reported, particularly in Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia, likely reflective of infection in a naïve population and lack of an effective vaccination program. These findings are in contrast to what has generally been described in other parts of the world. Furthermore, studies should examine the risk factors associated with high morbidity and mortality rates in this region. A greater understanding of LSD epidemiology in Southeast Asia will assist farmers and governments to implement effective control and prevention strategies that reduce the spread of disease to other regions and the potentially devastating impacts of LSD.

The financial toll of lumpy skin disease in Pakistan, and Whether or not vaccination is worth it for preventing Future outbreaks

Farmers may suffer significant financial losses as a result of lumpy skin disease (LSD). It is a major impediment to global commerce. The Capri poxvirus genus includes the lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV). The LSD greatly lowers milk output, which may range from 10% to 85%.&#x0D; Milk and meat consumption in Karachi (Pakistan) has fallen by 60% to 70% as a consequence of LSD use. calves of all kinds and ages are impacted, with nursing cows and young calves being the most vulnerable. Most LSD outbreaks occur in hot, humid areas, where the majority of the flies that serve as vectors are present. Animals may be able to transfer LSD more rapidly. While mortality rates are normally modest (between 0 and 7%), morbidity rates vary from 0.75 to 100%. There are lesions in the reproductive, respiratory, and digestive systems. Mastitis, pneumonia, skin infections, limping, diarrhoea, and myiasis are all potential side effects of severe LSD. It is reliable and safe to consume milk and meat from ill animals. It is critical to choose infection management and prevention methods. The limited movement of infected animals is one of the primary ways that LSD spreads in regions where it is not endemic. Another disease-control strategy is to minimize the quantity of insects and vectors. Furthermore, vaccination or immunization with the homologous strain of the LSDV may be the most efficient approach of disease control. To choose control measures in time for the LSD to be decreased, diagnosis is critical and should be quick and precise, especially in endemic areas.&#x0D; Keywords: Pathology, Lumpy skin disease, vaccination, economic effects, Pakistan

Risk Factors and Spatiotemporal Distribution of Lumpy Skin Disease Occurrence in the Asian Continent during 2012–2022: An Ecological Niche Model

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an emerging transboundary infectious disease of animals with high morbidity and low mortality rates. The infection occurs in cattle, buffalo, and some closely related wild animals, with cattle and buffalo showing higher susceptibility than other species. The primary mode of disease transmission is the mechanical dispersion of bloodsucking insects. The disease symptoms, including animal fur damage, weight loss, decline in milk production, infertility, and miscarriage, lead to huge economic losses in regions and countries with LSD outbreaks. The present study aimed to analyze the incidence data of LSD in the Asian continent from January 2012 to September 2022, identify spatiotemporal clusters and risk factors of the disease, and establish a maximum entropy ecological niche model to predict high-risk areas for disease outbreaks. The studied variables included bioclimatic factors, land type, and population density. Following the screening process, 12 variables were included in the maximum entropy model. Among them, the variable contribution rates of cattle density, land cover, isothermality, buffalo density, and maximum temperature of the warmest month were 53.8%, 10.9%, 9.2%, 8.9%, and 8%, respectively. Accounting for more than 90% of the total variable contribution rate, these five variables were considered to be the important influencing factors of LSD outbreaks. According to the results, nine spatiotemporal clusters approximately matched the high-risk areas predicted by the model. The Caucasus region of Russia; the Russian border areas of Kazakhstan, Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, and Israel; and the western regions of Iran, India, and Southeast Asia were predicted to be high-risk areas. Thus, this study provides the spatiotemporal clusters, risk factors, and high-risk areas of LSD outbreaks in the Asian continent, which can help formulate more effective disease prevention and control policies.