Lower Ionospheric Perturbation Research Articles

Spatial Distribution of Very Low Frequency and Low-Frequency (VLF/LF) Transmitter Signal Amplitude Associated With Lower Ionospheric Perturbations: Numerical Modeling and Observations

Spatial Distribution of Very Low Frequency and Low-Frequency (VLF/LF) Transmitter Signal Amplitude Associated With Lower Ionospheric Perturbations: Numerical Modeling and Observations

Multi-Parameter Observations of Seismogenic Phenomena Related to the Tokyo Earthquake (M = 5.9) on 7 October 2021

Multi-parameter observations, powerful for the study of lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC), have been performed for a recent Tokyo earthquake (EQ) with a moderate magnitude (M = 5.9) and rather larger depth (~70 km) on 7 October 2021, in the hope of predicting the next Kanto (Tokyo) huge EQ, such as the 1923 Great Kanto EQ (with a magnitude greater than 7). Various possible precursors have been searched during the two-month period of 1 September to 31 October 2021, based on different kinds of data sets: (i) ULF (ultra-low frequency) magnetic data from Kakioka, Japan, (ii) ULF/ELF (extremely low frequency) magnetic field data from the Chubu University network, (iii) meteorological data (temperature and humidity) from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), (iv) AGW (atmospheric gravity wave) ERA5 data provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), (v) subionospheric VLF/LF (very low frequency/low frequency) data from Russia and Japan, (vi) ionosonde Japanese data, and (vii) GIM (global ionosphere map) TEC (total electron content) data. After extensive analyses of all of the above data, we have found that there are a few obvious precursors: (i) ULF/ELF electromagnetic radiation in the atmosphere, and (ii) lower ionospheric perturbations (with two independent tools from the ULF depression and subionospheric VLF anomaly) which took place just two days before the EQ. Further, ULF/ELF atmospheric electromagnetic radiation has been observed from approximately one week before the EQ until a few days after the EQ, which seems to be approximately synchronous in time to the anomalous variation in meteorological parameters (a combination of temperature and humidity, atmospheric chemical potential). On the other hand, there have been no clear anomalies detected in the stratospheric AGW activity, and in the NmF2 and TEC data for the upper F region ionosphere. So, it seems that the lithospheric origin is not strong enough to perturb the upper F region. Finally, we discuss the possible hypothesis for the LAIC process, and we can conclude that the AGW hypothesis might be ruled out, but other possible channels such as the chemical channel (radon emanation) and the associated effects might be in operation, at least, for this Tokyo EQ.

Numerical modelling of sub-ionospheric Very Low Frequency radio signal anomalies during the Samos (Greece) earthquake (M = 6.9) on October 30, 2020

Lower ionospheric perturbation during earthquake activity is well recognized by the anomalous behavior of Very Low or Low Frequency (VLF/LF) radio signal. In this study, we present the sub-ionospheric VLF signal modulation during the Samos earthquake that took place on October 30, 2020 (M = 6.9). We use the conventional terminator time method to check the seismogenic impression in the VLF signal during the local sunrise and sunset times. VLF signals from two transmitters ISR (Israel) and TBB (Turkey) are used for this analysis and those are recorded in a receiving station UWA in Greece. Both signals show a strong shift in the sunrise and sunset terminator times. The signal profiles are numerically simulated using the Long Wavelength Propagation Capability (LWPC) program by incorporating Wait’s two-component ionospheric parameters (β and h′). The simulation gives highly satisfactory outcomes. The outputs of LWPC are used to compute the electron density profile of the lower ionosphere. It is found that the electron density gets significantly modulated during the maximum shift in the terminator times. The electron density is found to have both increased and decreased from its normal value before the earthquake. The VLF path dependency is strongly observed in the change in the electron density profile. For ISR-UWA, nighttime reflection height has been computed using the modal conversion technique, and it is found to be similar to the LWPC outcomes. The overall condition was geomagnetically quiet, and the results have no contamination due to solar-terrestrial interaction.

Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling Effects Based on Multiparameter Precursor Observations for February–March 2021 Earthquakes (M~7) in the Offshore of Tohoku Area of Japan

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) effects with the use of multiparameter precursor observations for two successive Japanese earthquakes (EQs) (with a magnitude of around 7) in February and March 2021, respectively, considering a seemingly significant difference in seismological and geological hypocenter conditions for those EQs. The second March EQ is very similar to the famous 2011 Tohoku EQ in the sense that those EQs took place at the seabed of the subducting plate, while the first February EQ happened within the subducting plate, not at the seabed. Multiparameter observation is a powerful tool for the study of the LAIC process, and we studied the following observables over a 3-month period (January to March): (i) ULF data (lithospheric radiation and ULF depression phenomenon); (ii) ULF/ELF atmospheric electromagnetic radiation; (iii) atmospheric gravity wave (AGW) activity in the stratosphere, extracted from satellite temperature data; (iv) subionospheric VLF/LF propagation data; and (v) GPS TECs (total electron contents). In contrast to our initial expectation of different responses of anomalies to the two EQs, we found no such conspicuous differences of electromagnetic anomalies between the two EQs, but showed quite similar anomaly responses for the two EQs. It is definite that atmospheric ULF/ELF radiation and ULF depression as lower ionospheric perturbation are most likely signatures of precursors to both EQs, and most importantly, all electromagnetic anomalies are concentrated in the period of about 1 week–9 days before the EQ to the EQ day. There seems to exist a chain of LAIC process (cause-and-effect relationship) for the first EQ, while all of the observed anomalies seem to occur nearly synchronously in time for the send EQ. Even though we tried to discuss possible LAIC channels, we cannot come to any definite conclusion about which coupling channel is plausible for each EQ.

Gravity Wave Activity in the Stratosphere before the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake as the Mechanism of Lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere Coupling.

The precursory atmospheric gravity wave (AGW) activity in the stratosphere has been investigated in our previous paper by studying an inland Kumamoto earthquake (EQ). We are interested in whether the same phenomenon occurs or not before another major EQ, especially an oceanic EQ. In this study, we have examined the stratospheric AGW activity before the oceanic 2011 Tohoku EQ (Mw 9.0), while using the temperature profiles that were retrieved from ERA5. The potential energy (EP) of AGW has enhanced from 3 to 7 March, 4–8 days before the EQ. The active region of the precursory AGW first appeared around the EQ epicenter, and then expanded omnidirectionally, but mainly toward the east, covering a wide area of 2500 km (in longitude) by 1500 km (in latitude). We also found the influence of the present AGW activity on some stratospheric parameters. The stratopause was heated and descended; the ozone concentration was also reduced and the zonal wind was reversed at the stratopause altitude before the EQ. These abnormalities of the stratospheric AGW and physical/chemical parameters are most significant on 5–6 March, which are found to be consistent in time and spatial distribution with the lower ionospheric perturbation, as detected by our VLF network observations. We have excluded the other probabilities by the processes of elimination and finally concluded that the abnormal phenomena observed in the present study are EQ precursors, although several potential sources can generate AGW activities and chemical variations in the stratosphere. The present paper shows that the abnormal stratospheric AGW activity has also been detected even before an oceanic EQ, and the AGW activity has obliquely propagated upward and further disturbed the lower ionosphere. This case study has provided further support to the AGW hypothesis of the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling process.

One day prediction of nighttime VLF amplitudes using nonlinear autoregression and neural network modeling

AbstractThe electric field amplitude of very low frequency (VLF) transmitter from Hawaii (NPM) has been continuously recorded at Chofu (CHF), Tokyo, Japan. The VLF amplitude variability indicates lower ionospheric perturbation in the D region (60–90 km altitude range) around the NPM‐CHF propagation path. We carried out the prediction of daily nighttime mean VLF amplitude by using Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input Neural Network (NARX NN). The NARX NN model, which was built based on the daily input variables of various physical parameters such as stratospheric temperature, total column ozone, cosmic rays, Dst, and Kp indices possess good accuracy during the model building. The fitted model was constructed within the training period from 1 January 2011 to 4 February 2013 by using three algorithms, namely, Bayesian Neural Network (BRANN), Levenberg Marquardt Neural Network (LMANN), and Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG). The LMANN has the largest Pearson correlation coefficient (r) of 0.94 and smallest root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) of 1.19 dB. The constructed models by using LMANN were applied to predict the VLF amplitude from 5 February 2013 to 31 December 2013. As a result the one step (1 day) ahead predicted nighttime VLF amplitude has the r of 0.93 and RMSE of 2.25 dB. We conclude that the model built according to the proposed methodology provides good predictions of the electric field amplitude of VLF waves for NPM‐CHF (midlatitude) propagation path.

A Study on the Correlation of Milk Yield of Cows with Seismicity and ULF Magnetic Field Variations

A statistical study on the basis of one-year data of 2014 has been performed in order to find whether abnormal animal behavior is related with seismic activity and also whether the ULF (Ultra Low Frequency) electromagnetic radiation might be a possible sensory mechanism of abnormal animal behavior. Abnormal animal behavior has been studied with the use of digitally recorded milk yield of cows at Ibaraki Prefecture Livestock Station, and the ULF magnetic field changes have been studied with the data at a magnetic observatory of Kakioka. As the result of correlation analyses, clear responses are observed for both the milk yield of cows and ULF magnetic field changes (both ULF radiation (ULF emissions from the lithosphere) and ULF depression (as an indicator of lower ionospheric perturbations)) for most powerful and not distant earthquakes (EQs) with magnitude > 6, that is, the milk yield of cows is found to exhibit a conspicuous depletion about 17 - 18 days before an EQ, though the correlation coefficient is not so big. Another important objective in this paper is to identify that ULF radiation is the main agent of abnormal behavior so that we have compared the temporal evolutions of milk yield of cows, ULF radiation and ULF depression for three major EQs. As a result, it is found that ULF radiation happens, at least, during the periods of abnormal depletion of milk yield of cows.

On the ionospheric perturbation for the 1995 Kobe earthquake: revisited

The presence of seismo-lower ionospheric perturbation for the Kobe earthquake (EQ) has been revisited with a relatively new phenomenon of ULF (ultra-low-frequency) magnetic field depression effect. By using the ULF data in Japan only at Kakioka belonging to Japan Meteorological Agency (because data from Memambetsu and Kanoya were not available), we have found that a very clear ULF depression was observed at Kakioka on 14 January 1995. A comparison with our former result on subionospheric VLF (very low frequency) propagation anomaly indicates that the occurrence of ULF depression exhibits a temporal coincidence (synchronization) with that of subionospheric VLF anomaly. This may be acceptable because the ULF depression can be explained in terms of enhanced absorption of magnetospheric ULF waves through the disturbed lower ionosphere prior to an EQ. The result of ULF magnetic field depression in this paper is likely to provide a further support to the presence of the lower ionospheric perturbation before the Kobe EQ.

On the correlation between ionospheric perturbations as detected by subionospheric VLF/LF signals and earthquakes as characterized by seismic intensity

The long-term data during seven years from January 2001 to December 2007, as observed by the Pacific VLF/LF network consisting of several Japanese stations and one station in Kamchatka, are extensively utilized to perform a statistical correlation study between the lower ionospheric perturbations as detected by subionospheric propagation and earthquakes (EQs). In this paper, we adopt a physical parameter, the maximum seismicity intensity observed ( I) to define the strength of an EQ unlike the previously and conventionally used EQ magnitude and depth, which is a combined effect of EQ magnitude and depth, together with the Earth’s surface information and geological condition around the EQ epicenter. After considering EQs only take place on the land because of the use of seismicity and by using the superimposed epoch analysis, it is found for the larger EQs with I from 5 to 7 (we feel serious trembling and we expect serious damage) that the most important VLF/LF parameter, trend (nighttime average amplitude), shows a definite decrease about 10 days before the EQ by exceeding 2 σ ( σ: standard deviation) criterion; the dispersion shows a maximum about 10 days before the EQ but not exceeding 2 σ line and finally the nighttime fluctuation shows an enhancement about 10 days before the EQ (with exceeding the 2 σ level). A definite statistical correlation is confirmed between the ionospheric perturbations and I when I is strong enough in a range from 5 to 7. Whereas, there is no significant correlation between the two when I is in a range from 3 to 4. Finally, together with the corresponding results for EQs in the sea, but close to the land, these results are discussed in the light of lithosphere–ionosphere coupling mechanism.

Ionospheric perturbations related to the Miyagi-oki earthquake on 16 August 2005, as seen from Japanese VLF/LF subionospheric propagation network

A case study has been performed on the lower ionospheric perturbations as seen from the Japanese subionospheric VLF (very low frequency, 3–30 kHz) /LF (low frequency, 30–300 kHz) propagation network for a recent powerful earthquake, i.e., the Miyagi-oki earthquake on 16 August 2005 (magnitude 7.2, and depth 36 km). Different propagation paths were examined and the two paths from a transmitter with call sign of JJY ( f = 40 kHz, in Fukushima prefecture) to both receiving stations of Kamachatka, Russia and Moshiri, Hokkaido, exhibit clear signatures of ionospheric perturbations a few days before and a few days after the earthquake. We have detected a clear nighttime amplitude decrease and an enhancement in nighttime fluctuation, both exceeding the corresponding three standard deviations from the mean. We discuss other seismogenic phenomena in order to study the lithosphere–ionosphere coupling.