Low Negative Likelihood Ratio Research Articles

Meta-analysis on the diagnostic value of laser Doppler imaging for burn depth

Objective: To evaluate the value of laser Doppler imaging (LDI) in diagnosing deep or superficial partial-thickness burn wound with meta-analysis. Methods: Databases including PubMed, Cochrane Library were searched using key words " burn, burns, burn depth, laser Doppler imaging, laser Doppler perfusion imaging, LDI, LDPI" , and Chinese Journals Full-text Database, Wanfang Database, VIP Database were searched using Chinese key words ",,,," to obtain the published trials of LDI in diagnosing deep or superficial partial-thickness burn wound from the establishment of each database to October 2015. The risk of bias and applicability concerns of the included studies were evaluated by Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2. Data were processed with Meta-DiSc 1.4 statistical software. The heterogeneity among the included studies was evaluated. The pooled estimates of LDI in diagnosing deep or superficial partial-thickness burn wound in the included studies, including sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, diagnostic odds ratio, as well as the area under the curve of summary receiver operating characteristic and index of Q(*) were calculated. The stability of results of the overall pooled estimates of the included studies was validated by sensitivity analysis. The sources of heterogeneity among the included studies were sought through subgroup analysis. The publication bias caused by the results of the included studies was evaluated by drawing the Deek's funnel plot. Results: A total of 5 articles conforming to the inclusion criteria, involving 138 patients and 179 burn wounds, were included. One of the included studies had low risk of bias, while the other 4 studies had high/unclear risk of bias. In applicability concern aspect, one of the included studies had high/unclear concerns regarding applicability, while the other 4 studies had low concerns regarding applicability. There was no heterogeneity caused by threshold effects among the included studies (no " shoulder arm" plot of the scattered-point distribution was observed in the space of the receiver operating characteristic, β(s)=0.01, P>0.05). There was a high heterogeneity caused by non-threshold effects among the included studies (sensitivity I(2)=54%). The overall pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, negative likelihood ratio, and diagnostic odds ratio of the included studies on LDI in diagnosing deep or superficial partial-thickness burn wound were 95% (with 95% confidence interval 88%-99%), 96% (with 95% confidence interval 90%-99%), 9.75 (with 95% confidence interval 4.35-21.81), 0.11 (with 95% confidence interval 0.05-0.22), and 257.93 (with 95% confidence interval 58.96-1 128.41), respectively. The area under the curve of summary receiver operating characteristic was 0.98, with index of Q(*) 94%. The results of the overall pooled estimates of the included studies was stable. The risk of bias of the selection of the patients, equipment type of LDI, and the selection of diagnostic method in control might be sources of the heterogeneity of the included studies. The Deek's funnel plot indicated that there was no publication bias caused by the results of the included studies (P>0.05). Conclusions: LDI has high sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, diagnostic odds ratio and index of Q(*,) large area under the curve of summary receiver operating characteristics, and low negative likelihood ratio in diagnosing deep or superficial partial-thickness burn wound, which has relatively high diagnostic value.

Prediction of the severity of obstructive sleep apnea by anthropometric features via support vector machine.

To develop an applicable prediction for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is still a challenge in clinical practice. We apply a modern machine learning method, the support vector machine to establish a predicting model for the severity of OSA. The support vector machine was applied to build up a prediction model based on three anthropometric features (neck circumference, waist circumference, and body mass index) and age on the first database. The established model was then valided independently on the second database. The anthropometric features and age were combined to generate powerful predictors for OSA. Following the common practice, we predict if a subject has the apnea-hypopnea index greater then 15 or not as well as 30 or not. Dividing by genders and age, for the AHI threhosld 15 (respectively 30), the cross validation and testing accuracy for the prediction were 85.3% and 76.7% (respectively 83.7% and 75.5%) in young female, while the negative likelihood ratio for the AHI threhosld 15 (respectively 30) for the cross validation and testing were 0.2 and 0.32 (respectively 0.06 and 0.1) in young female. The more accurate results with lower negative likelihood ratio in the younger patients, especially the female subgroup, reflect the potential of the proposed model for the screening purpose and the importance of approaching by different genders and the effects of aging.

Clinical algorithms for the diagnosis and prognosis of interstitial lung disease in systemic sclerosis.

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is currently the primary cause of death in systemic sclerosis (SSc). Thoracic high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) is considered the gold standard for diagnosis. Recent studies have proposed several clinical algorithms to predict the diagnosis and prognosis of SSc-ILD. To test the clinical algorithms to predict the presence and prognosis of SSc-ILD and to evaluate the association of extent of ILD with mortality in a cohort of SSc patients. Retrospective cohort study, including 177 SSc patients assessed by clinical evaluation, laboratory tests, pulmonary function tests, and HRCT. Three clinical algorithms, combining lung auscultation, chest radiography, and percentage predicted forced vital capacity (FVC), were applied for the diagnosis of different extents of ILD on HRCT. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional models were used to analyze the association of algorithms and the extent of ILD on HRCT with the risk of death using hazard ratios (HR). The prevalence of ILD on HRCT was 57.1% and 79 patients died (44.6%) in a median follow-up of 11.1 years. For identification of ILD with extent ≥10% and ≥20% on HRCT, all algorithms presented a high sensitivity (>89%) and a very low negative likelihood ratio (<0.16). For prognosis, survival was decreased for all algorithms, especially the algorithm C (HR = 3.47, 95% CI: 1.62-7.42), which identified the presence of ILD based on crackles on lung auscultation, findings on chest X-ray, or FVC <80%. Extensive disease as proposed by Goh et al. (extent of ILD > 20% on HRCT or, in indeterminate cases, FVC < 70%) had a significantly higher risk of death (HR = 3.42, 95% CI: 2.12-5.52). Survival was not different between patients with extent of 10% or 20% of ILD on HRCT, and analysis of 10-year mortality suggested that a threshold of 10% may also have a good predictive value for mortality. However, there is no clear cutoff above which mortality is sharply increased. Clinical algorithms had a good diagnostic performance for extents of SSc-ILD on HRCT with clinical and prognostic relevance (≥10% and ≥20%), and were also strongly related to mortality. Non-HRCT-based algorithms could be useful when HRCT is not available. This is the first study to replicate the prognostic algorithm proposed by Goh et al. in a developing country.

Comparison of the prognostic values of inflammation markers in patients with acute pancreatitis: a retrospective cohort study

ObjectivesInflammation-based prognostic markers (neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), red cell distribution width (RDW) and lymphocyte–monocyte ratio (LMR)) are associated with overall survival in some diseases. This study assessed...

Endoscopic imaging modalities for diagnosing invasion depth of superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundDiagnosis of cancer invasion depth is crucial for selecting the optimal treatment strategy in patients with gastrointestinal cancers. We conducted a meta-analysis to determine the utilities of different endoscopic modalities for diagnosing invasion depth of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC).MethodsWe conducted a comprehensive search of MEDLINE, Cochrane Central, and Ichushi databases to identify studies evaluating the use of endoscopic modalities for diagnosing invasion depth of superficial esophageal SCC. We excluded case reports, review articles, and studies in which the total number of patients or lesions was <10.ResultsFourteen studies fulfilled our criteria. Summary receiver operating characteristic curves showed that magnified endoscopy (ME) and endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) performed better than non-ME. ME was associated with high sensitivity and a very low (0.08) negative likelihood ratio (NLR), while EUS had high specificity and a very high (17.6) positive likelihood ratio (PLR) for the diagnosis of epithelial or lamina propria cancers. NLR <0.1 provided strong evidence to rule out disease, and PLR >10 provided strong evidence of a positive diagnosis.ConclusionsEUS and ME perform better than non-ME for diagnosing invasion depth in SCC. ME has a low NLR and is a reliable modality for confirming deep invasion of cancer, while EUS has a high PLR and can reliably confirm that the cancer is limited to the surface. Effective use of these two modalities should be considered in patients with SCC.Trial registrationPROSPERO (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews); number 42015024462.

Performance of classification criteria for Behcet's disease in an Egyptian cohort

Background: The revised Japanese criteria, the International study group (ISG), the International criteria for Behcet's disease (ICBD) 2006, and the revised ICBD 2010 are frequently used for the classification of Behcet's Disease (BD). In this study we evaluated the performance of these criteria sets in Egyptians. Methods: A total of of 461 Egyptian patients over 5 years were studied. It included 256 patients classified as BD based on expert opinion and 205 patients with other autoimmune and/or autoinflammatory diseases with symptoms similar to BD. Performance of the revised Japanese criteria, ISG, ICBD 2006, and the revised ICBD 2010 was evaluated evaluated in terms of sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), positive predictive value (PPV), positive likelihood ratio (PLR), diagnostic odd ratio (DOR), and Youden's index (YI). Results: ICBD 2010 carried the highest sensitivity (98.83%), NPV (98.48%), DOR (1645), and YI (0.94) with lowest NLR (0.01). On the other hand, ICBD 2006 and ISG were very specific (99.51%, 99.41%, respectively) with PPV (99.49%, 99.40%) and PLR (155.35, 126.33), respectively. Conclusions: ICBD 2010 is a very good criteria set to be used in Egyptian BD patients based on its very high sensitivity, accepted specificity, and power of discrimination that enables early patients classification, management, and prognosis.

Evaluation of serum inflammatory biomarkers as predictors of treatment outcome in pulmonary tuberculosis.

To evaluate C-reactive protein (CRP), globulin and white blood cell (WBC) count as predictors of treatment outcome in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB). An observational study of patients with active PTB was conducted at a tertiary centre. All patients had serum CRP, globulin and WBC measured at baseline and at 2 months following commencement of treatment. The outcome of interest was requirement for extension of treatment beyond 6 months. There were 226 patients included in the study. Serum globulin 45 g/l was the only baseline biomarker evaluated that independently predicted requirement for treatment extension (OR 3.42, 95%CI 1.597.32, P 0.001). An elevated globulin level that failed to normalise at 2 months was also associated with increased requirement for treatment extension (63.9% vs. 5.1%, P 0.001), and had a low negative likelihood ratio (0.07) for exclusion of requirement for treatment extension. On multivariable analysis, an elevated globulin that failed to normalise at 2 months was independently associated with requirement for treatment extension (OR 6.13, 95%CI 2.2316.80, P 0.001). Serum globulin independently predicts requirement for treatment extension in PTB and outperforms CRP and WBC as a predictive biomarker. Normalisation of globulin at 2 months following treatment commencement is associated with low risk of requirement for treatment extension.

Use of 18F-FDG PET/CT in the preoperative evaluation of patients diagnosed with peritoneal carcinomatosis of ovarian origin, candidates to cytoreduction and hipec. A pending issue

PurposeTo evaluate the clinical usefulness of the results obtained with 18F-FDG PET/CT in relation to CT in the preoperative staging of patients with peritoneal carcinomatosis secondary to primary or recurrent ovarian cancer candidates to cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraoperative intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC). Material and methodsA retrospective study comparing the results obtained with CT and 18F-FDG PET/CT in the preoperative evaluation of a series of 59 patients was performed. In all patients the peritoneal carcinomatosis index (PCI) was determined by preoperative radiological CT and 18F-FDG PET/CT and compared with surgical PCI, which was considered as reference. ResultsOf the 59 patients studied, in 55 peritoneal carcinomatosis presences were confirmed (4 patients had complete responses to neoadjuvant chemotherapy). The mean surgical, CT and 18F-FDG PET/CT PCI was 9.46±7.70, 3.69±3.96 and 2.25±1.02, respectively. In the global disease detection, CT showed a higher positive likelihood ratio (LR+) than 18F-FDG PET/CT (15.3, 95% CI 8.35–28.04 vs. 3.47, 95% CI 3.36–5.11) and a lower negative likelihood ratio (LR-) than 18F-FDG PET/CT (0.67, 95% CI 0.61–0.73 vs. 0.82, 95% CI 0.76–0.88). In every region of the abdomen the CT showed a greater LR+ than 18F-FDG PET/CT and a lower LR- than 18F-FDG PET/CT. ConclusionsCT showed the best diagnostic results compared to 18F-FDG PET/CT to confirme the presence of peritoneal disease. The lower performance of the 18F-FDG PET/CT suggests that the main utility of 18F-FDG PET/CT is to evaluate a possible metastatic extraperitoneal spread of the disease.

Do serial measurements of cervical length improve the prediction of preterm birth in asymptomatic women with twin gestations?

Cervical length at midtrimester is a powerful predictor of preterm birth in twin gestations. However, given the fact that, in some cases, cervical shortening may become evident only later during the second trimester, it seems reasonable that serial monitoring of cervical length may improve the detection of preterm birth in women with twins. However, data in support of such a practice are limited and conflicting. The contradictory results may be related to the fact that in most of these studies, the analysis of the predictive value of serial measurements of cervical length was limited to data derived from only two sequential measurements of cervical length, while data on the predictive value of multiple (>2) measurements are scarce. We sought to determine whether serial measurements of cervical length can improve the prediction of preterm birth in asymptomatic women with twin gestations compared with a single measurement of cervical length at midgestation. This was a retrospective cohort study of women with twin pregnancies followed up in a tertiary medical center from 2012 through 2014. All participants underwent routine measurement of cervical length at midgestation and every 2-3 weeks thereafter until 28-32 weeks. For each patient, cervical length was determined at the following time periods: 18+0 to 21+6 weeks (period 1, routine exam), 22+0 to 24+6 weeks (period 2), 25+0 to 27+6 weeks (period 3), and 28+0 to 32+0 weeks (period 4). Measurements of cervical length at periods 2-4 were analyzed in the form of either absolute length (in millimeters) or percent shortening relative to cervical length at period 1. The performance of a stepwise algorithm that incorporated serial measurements of cervical length for the prediction of preterm birth was compared to that achieved with a single measurement of cervical length at period1. Overall, 441 women with twin pregnancies who were eligible for the study underwent a total of 2374 cervical length measurements. The association of a short cervix (<10th percentile) with preterm birth at <32 weeks persisted in each of the 4 periods of gestation [odds ratio (95% confidence interval): 7.2 (3.1-16.5), 15.3 (6.4-36.7), 10.3 (4.4-24.3), and 23.1(8.3-64.1), respectively]. Compared with a single measurement of cervical length at midgestation (period 1), a stepwise algorithm integrating serial cervical length measurements from all 4 successive gestational age periods resulted in a significant increase in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.917 vs 0.613, P < .001). Similarly, when a target false-positive rate of 5% was used, the same stepwise algorithm was associated with a higher detection rate (69% vs 28%, P < .001), higher positive likelihood ratio (14.54 vs 5.12), and lower negative likelihood ratio (0.32 vs 0.76) for preterm birth at <32 weeks compared with a single measurement of cervical length at period1. Integration of serial measurements of cervical length using a stepwise algorithm in asymptomatic women with twin gestations can improve the detection of women at risk of preterm birth. Prospective studies are needed to validate these findings, and to investigate whether improved risk assessment performance is sufficient to offset the additional costs associated with serial cervical length measurements.

Meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy of neutrophil CD64 for neonatal sepsis.

sBackgroundThe aim of this study was to systematically evaluate the diagnostic performance of nCD64 for neonatal sepsis.MethodsComputer retrieval was conducted for the databases of PubMed, Embase, and Springer databases up to March 18, 2015 to select the relevant studies on nCD64 and neonatal sepsis. Sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (PLR), negative likelihood ratio (NLR), diagnostic odds ratio (DOR), and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for diagnostic efficiency of nCD64 were pooled. In addition, the summary receiver operating characteristic (SROC) curve was also conducted based on the sensitivity and specificity.ResultsSeventeen studies including 3478 participants were included in this meta-analysis. The overall pooled sensitivity, specificity, PLR, NLR and DOR were 0.77 (95 % CI: 0.74–0.79), 0.74 (95 % CI: 0.72–0.75), 3.58 (95 % CI: 2.85–4.49), 0.29 (95 % CI: 0.22–0.37) and 15.18 (95 % CI: 9.75–23.62), respectively. In addition, the area under the SROC curve (AUC) was 0.8666, and no threshold effect was found based on the Spearman correlation analysis (P = 0.616). Besides, subgroup analysis showed higher sensitivity, specificity and AUC in term infants and proven infection group than those in preterm infants and clinical infection group, respectively.ConclusionsThe n CD64 expression alone is not a satisfactory marker for diagnosing neonatal sepsis with relatively low sensitivity, specificity, PLR and NLR, in spite of relatively high SROC area. Therefore, the n CD64 expression used in diagnosis of neonatal sepsis should be treated with caution.

Diagnosing Acute Heart Failure in the Emergency Department: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

Acute heart failure (AHF) is one of the most common diagnoses assigned to emergency department (ED) patients who are hospitalized. Despite its high prevalence in the emergency setting, the diagnosis of AHF in ED patients with undifferentiated dyspnea can be challenging. The primary objective of this study was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of the operating characteristics of diagnostic elements available to the emergency physician for diagnosing AHF. Secondary objectives were to develop a test-treatment threshold model and to calculate interval likelihood ratios (LRs) for natriuretic peptides (NPs) by pooling patient-level results. PubMed, EMBASE, and selected bibliographies were searched from January 1965 to March 2015 using MeSH terms to address the ability of the following index tests to predict AHF as a cause of dyspnea in adult patients in the ED: history and physical examination, electrocardiogram, chest radiograph (CXR), B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP), N-terminal proB-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), lung ultrasound (US), bedside echocardiography, and bioimpedance. A diagnosis of AHF based on clinical data combined with objective test results served as the criterion standard diagnosis. Data were analyzed using Meta-DiSc software. Authors of all NP studies were contacted to obtain patient-level data. The Quality Assessment Tool for Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) for systematic reviews was utilized to evaluate the quality and applicability of the studies included. Based on the included studies, the prevalence of AHF ranged from 29% to 79%. Index tests with pooled positive LRs ≥ 4 were the auscultation of S3 on physical examination (4.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.7 to 5.9), pulmonary edema on both CXR (4.8, 95% CI = 3.6 to 6.4) and lung US (7.4, 95% CI = 4.2 to 12.8), and reduced ejection fraction observed on bedside echocardiogram (4.1, 95% CI = 2.4 to 7.2). Tests with low negative LRs were BNP < 100 pg/mL (0.11, 95% CI = 0.07 to 0.16), NT-proBNP < 300 pg/mL (0.09, 95% CI = 0.03 to 0.34), and B-line pattern on lung US LR (0.16, 95% CI = 0.05 to 0.51). Interval LRs of BNP concentrations at the low end of "positive" results as defined by a cutoff of 100 pg/mL were substantially lower (100 to 200 pg/mL; 0.29, 95% CI = 0.23 to 0.38) than those associated with higher BNP concentrations (1000 to 1500 pg/mL; 7.12, 95% CI = 4.53 to 11.18). The interval LR of NT-proBNP concentrations even at very high values (30,000 to 200,000 pg/mL) was 3.30 (95% CI = 2.05 to 5.31). Bedside lung US and echocardiography appear to the most useful tests for affirming the presence of AHF while NPs are valuable in excluding the diagnosis.

The Hug-up Test: A New, Sensitive Diagnostic Test for Supraspinatus Tears.

Background:The supraspinatus tendon is the most commonly affected tendon in rotator cuff tears. Early detection of a supraspinatus tear using an accurate physical examination is, therefore, important. However, the currently used physical tests for detecting supraspinatus tears are poor diagnostic indicators and involve a wide range of sensitivity and specificity values. Therefore, the aim of this study was to establish a new physical test for the diagnosis of supraspinatus tears and evaluate its accuracy in comparison with conventional tests.Methods:Between November 2012 and January 2014, 200 consecutive patients undergoing shoulder arthroscopy were prospectively evaluated preoperatively. The hug-up test, empty can (EC) test, full can (FC) test, Neer impingement sign, and Hawkins-Kennedy impingement sign were used and compared statistically for their accuracy in terms of supraspinatus tears, with arthroscopic findings as the gold standard. Muscle strength was precisely quantified using an electronic digital tensiometer.Results:The prevalence of supraspinatus tears was 76.5%. The hug-up test demonstrated the highest sensitivity (94.1%), with a low negative likelihood ratio (NLR, 0.08) and comparable specificity (76.6%) compared with the other four tests. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the hug-up test was 0.854, with no statistical difference compared with the EC test (z = 1.438, P = 0.075) or the FC test (z = 1.498, P = 0.067). The hug-up test showed no statistical difference in terms of detecting different tear patterns according to the position (χ2 = 0.578, P = 0.898) and size (Fisher's exact test, P > 0.999) compared with the arthroscopic examination. The interobserver reproducibility of the hug-up test was high, with a kappa coefficient of 0.823.Conclusions:The hug-up test can accurately detect supraspinatus tears with a high sensitivity, comparable specificity, and low NLR compared with the conventional clinical tests and could, therefore, improve the diagnosis of supraspinatus tears in clinical settings.

Imaging Psoas Sign in Lumbar Spinal Infections: Evaluation of Diagnostic Accuracy and Comparison with Established Imaging Characteristics

Lumbar discitis-osteomyelitis has imaging characteristics than can overlap with noninfectious causes of back pain. Our aim was to determine the added accuracy of psoas musculature T2 hyperintensity (imaging psoas sign) in the MR imaging diagnosis of lumbar discitis-osteomyelitis. This retrospective case-control study evaluated lumbar spine MR imaging examinations, during a 30-month period, that were requested for the evaluation of discitis-osteomyelitis. Of this pool, 50 age-matched control patients were compared with 51 biopsy-proved or clinically diagnosed patients with discitis-osteomyelitis. Two reviewers, blinded to the clinical information, assessed the randomly organized MR imaging examinations for abnormalities of the psoas musculature, vertebral bodies, discs, and epidural space. Psoas T2 hyperintensity demonstrated a high sensitivity (92.1%; 95% CI, 80%-97.4%) and specificity (92%; 95% CI, 80%-97.4%), high positive likelihood ratio (11.5; 95% CI, 4.5-29.6), low negative likelihood ratio (0.09; 95% CI, 0.03-0.20), and individual area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92; 95% CI, 0.87-0.97. Identification of psoas T2 abnormality significantly improved (P = .02) the diagnostic accuracy of discitis-osteomyelitis in noncontrast examinations from an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of the established variables (vertebral body T2 and T1 signal, endplate integrity, disc T2 signal, and disc height) from 0.93 (95% CI, 0.88-0.98) to 0.98 (95% CI, 0.96-1.0). Psoas T2 abnormalities also had the highest interobserver reliability with a κ coefficient of 0.78 (substantial agreement). Psoas T2 hyperintensity, the imaging psoas sign, is highly correlated with discitis-osteomyelitis. T2 hyperintensity in the psoas musculature, particularly when there is clinical suspicion of spinal infection, improves the diagnostic accuracy of discitis-osteomyelitis compared with routine noncontrast variables alone.

Osteoporosis screening in postmenopausal women aged 50–64 years: BMI alone compared with current screening tools

ObjectivesConsensus on when to initiate DXA screening for early postmenopausal women (<65 years of age) is lacking. Low body mass index (BMI) has been proposed as one of the major risk factors for osteoporosis. This study sought to compare the predictive performance of BMI alone with 5 screening modalities (the U.S. Preventive services task force [USPSTF] FRAX threshold of 9.3%, a risk factor based approach [≥1 risk factors], the osteoporosis self-assessment tool [OST <2], the osteoporosis risk assessment instrument [ORAI ≥9], and the simple calculated osteoporosis risk estimation [SCORE ≥6]) in identifying early postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. MethodsPostmenopausal women aged 50–64 years presenting for a DXA test were recruited between January 1, 2007, and March 1, 2009. Demographic data and osteoporosis risk factors were obtained through a telephone survey. The performance of each screening tool in predicting osteoporosis was compared. ResultsOf 445 study participants, 95% were White, 38 had osteoporosis (T-score ≤−2.5). BMI (<28) was associated with the highest Sensitivity (95%), the lowest Negative Likelihood Ratio (LR-) of 0.14, an AUC of 0.73, and the number needed to scan (NNS) of 8. The USPSTF approach had the lowest sensitivity (24%), highest LR- (0.91), lowest AUC (0.62), and highest NNS (9). Among 5 established modalities, SCORE (≥6) appears to be the best (sensitivity: 92%, LR-: 0.24, AUC: 0.75, NNS: 9). ConclusionBMI (<28) had a comparable numerical screening performance overall to the current screening modalities. BMI (<28) could be considered a potential indicator when screening early postmenopausal White women for osteoporosis. However, a better osteoporosis screening tool remains to be developed.

Optimisation of a treat-to-target approach in rheumatoid arthritis: strategies for the 3-month time point

BackgroundTreat-to-target (T2T) is a widely accepted management strategy for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) with a key decision point at 3 months after treatment initiation. At this time point, it remains unclear...

Screening Tests for Cushing's Syndrome: Urinary Free Cortisol Role Measured by LC-MS/MS.

As initial screening for Cushing's syndrome (CS), The Endocrine Society guidelines recommend one of the following: the 1-mg dexamethasone suppression test (DST) or late-night salivary cortisol (LNSC) or urinary free cortisol (UFC) measurement. We examined the diagnostic performance of the above-mentioned tests in a series of patients. We retrospectively analyzed 137 patients with clinical conditions suggestive of hypercortisolism: 38 with confirmed CS diagnosis and 99 without (termed non-CS). UFC was measured by liquid chromatography tandem-mass spectrometry, whereas LNSC by the radioimmunometric method and serum cortisol were measured by a chemiluminescence immunoassay. Comparing CS vs non-CS, a cutoff of 138 nmol/L after 1-mg DST revealed the best specificity (SP; 97%), whereas the 50-nmol/L cutoff confirmed the best sensitivity (SE; 100%); the SE and SP for LNSC greater than 14.46 nmol/L were, respectively, 84% and 89%, whereas the SE and SP for UFC greater than 170 nmol per 24 hours, they were 97% and 91%. Overall, UFC revealed both a combined higher positive and a lower negative likelihood ratio among first-line tests (respectively 10.7 and 0.03). Computing a receiver-operating curve -contrast analysis to compare the power of each single test with that of the others, alone or combined (DST+LNSC, DST+UFC, and LNSC+UFC) or with that of all the tests together (DST+LNSC+UFC), the UFC assay was at least as good as all the other possible combinations. Measuring UFC by liquid chromatography tandem-mass spectrometry achieves the best accuracy in diagnosing CS among patients presenting with suspected hypercortisolism.

Validation of the digital photographic assessment to diagnose traumatic dental injuries.

Alternatives for monitoring dental trauma in epidemiological surveys may be useful, as data collection of epidemiological investigation can be jeopardized due to several conditions. To investigate the validity of standard digital photographs to determine the occurrence of anterior dental trauma compared to the clinical examination in an epidemiological survey. Participants were children aged 8-12 years old attending both private and public schools; children were clinically evaluated for the assessment of dental trauma, and standard photographs were taken from maxillary and mandibular permanent incisors of each child. Validity was determined by calculating the percentages and respective 95% confidence interval of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. Cohen's kappa statistic was also used. A total of 412 children were included, totaling 3296 teeth assessed for dental trauma presence. The prevalence of dental trauma was 11.2% (95% CI 8.29-14.61) and 10.2% (95% CI 7.45-13.53), respectively, for the clinical examination and the photographic method. Agreement between the gold standard and the photographic diagnosis was good: 0.64 for the prevalence of dental trauma and 0.66 for diagnosis of dental trauma on a tooth basis. The diagnosis through the photographic method had higher specificity (96.7%) than sensitivity (65.2%). High positive likelihood ratio and low negative likelihood ratio were also observed. The photographic assessment method of dental trauma was valid and reliable as compared to the oral clinical examination.

The Absence of Gallstones on Point-of-Care Ultrasound Rules Out Acute Cholecystitis

BackgroundCholelithiasis affects an estimated 20 million people in the United States yearly; 20% of symptomatic patients will develop acute cholecystitis (AC). A recent single-center study estimating test characteristics of point-of-care ultrasonography (POCUS) for the detection of AC, as defined by gallstones plus sonographic Murphy’s or pericholecystic fluid or gallbladder wall-thickening, resulted in a sensitivity and specificity of 87% (95% confidence interval [CI] 66–97) and 82% (95% CI 74–88), respectively. No prior studies have been conducted to estimate the test characteristics of POCUS for the purpose of excluding acute calculous cholecystitis. ObjectiveTo determine whether the finding of gallstones alone on POCUS has high sensitivity, high negative predictive value, and low negative likelihood ratio for the exclusion of AC. MethodsWe conducted an analysis using data from a prospective cross-sectional single-center study of POCUS test to estimate the test characteristics using a simplified definition of a positive test – the presence of gallstones alone. Clinical follow-up and pathology reports were used as the reference standard. Test characteristics were calculated and compared to the standard definition, gallstones plus one secondary finding. ResultsThe overall prevalence of AC was 14% (23 pathology-confirmed cases of 164 included patients). The sensitivity of the simplified definition was 100% (95% CI 85.7–100), negative predictive value 100% (95% CI 92.2–100), and negative likelihood ratio was < 0.1, compared to a sensitivity of 87% (95% CI 66–97%), negative predictive value 97% (95% CI 93–99%), and negative likelihood ratio of 0.16 (95% CI 0.06–0.5). ConclusionSimplifying the definition of the test findings on POCUS to gallstones alone has excellent sensitivity and negative predictive value for the exclusion of AC. This finding, if broadly validated prospectively, confirms the practice of excluding acute calculous cholecystitis using POCUS in emergency department patients.

A Clinical Model to Identify Patients With High-Risk Coronary Artery Disease

ObjectivesThis study sought to develop a clinical model that identifies patients with and without high-risk coronary artery disease (CAD). BackgroundAlthough current clinical models help to estimate a patient's pre-test probability of obstructive CAD, they do not accurately identify those patients with and without high-risk coronary anatomy. MethodsRetrospective analysis of a prospectively collected multinational coronary computed tomographic angiography (CTA) cohort was conducted. High-risk anatomy was defined as left main diameter stenosis ≥50%, 3-vessel disease with diameter stenosis ≥70%, or 2-vessel disease involving the proximal left anterior descending artery. Using a cohort of 27,125, patients with a history of CAD, cardiac transplantation, and congenital heart disease were excluded. The model was derived from 24,251 consecutive patients in the derivation cohort and an additional 7,333 nonoverlapping patients in the validation cohort. ResultsThe risk score consisted of 9 variables: age, sex, diabetes, hypertension, current smoking, hyperlipidemia, family history of CAD, history of peripheral vascular disease, and chest pain symptoms. Patients were divided into 3 risk categories: low (≤7 points), intermediate (8 to 17 points) and high (≥18 points). The model was statistically robust with area under the curve of 0.76 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.75 to 0.78) in the derivation cohort and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.69 to 0.74) in the validation cohort. Patients who scored ≤7 points had a low negative likelihood ratio (<0.1), whereas patients who scored ≥18 points had a high specificity of 99.3% and a positive likelihood ratio (8.48). In the validation group, the prevalence of high-risk CAD was 1% in patients with ≤7 points and 16.7% in those with ≥18 points. ConclusionsWe propose a scoring system, based on clinical variables, that can be used to identify patients at high and low pre-test probability of having high-risk CAD. Identification of these populations may detect those who may benefit from a trial of medical therapy and those who may benefit most from an invasive strategy.

Oxidative Markers for Prediction of Transition to Psychosis From the Clinical High-risk State

Introduction Predicting transition from clinical high risk (CHR) to first episode psychosis has proven difficult. Assessment of oxidative stress biomarkers and the niacin skin flush response (NSFR) may improve prediction accuracy. Objectives To predict transition to psychosis based on combined clinical and blood biomarker. Aims To analyse data from patients in placebo group of a 12-week trial of omega-3 fatty acid supplementation in CHR. Transition likelihood ratios (LRs) for baseline historical risks, clinical assessments (PANSS subscales and total, GAF), NSFR and blood markers (nervonic acid, superoxide dismutase, glutathione) were calculated. Variables with the highest positive and lowest negative LRs were included in an odds ratio form of Bayes’ rule transition prediction models. Model accuracy was calculated by area under the receiver operating curves (AUROC) of each model. Results 1-year transition to psychosis was 28% (n=40). Historical data showed no predictability (sensitivity 30%, specificity 100% (AUROC)=0.688, p=0.085). Clinical assessments alone produced a sensitivity of 30% at a specificity of 95% (AUROC=0.83, p Conclusions Probabilistic models combining biomarkers and clinical data are able to target high-risk subgroups within CHR and may help to personalise treatment.