More than two dozen inertial confinement fusion ignition experiments with cryogenic deuterium-tritium layers have now been performed on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) [G. H. Miller et al., Opt. Eng. 443, 2841 (2004)]. Each of these yields a wealth of data including neutron yield, neutron down-scatter fraction, burn-averaged ion temperature, x-ray image shape and size, primary and down-scattered neutron image shape and size, etc. Compared to 2-D radiation-hydrodynamics simulations modeling both the hohlraum and the capsule implosion, however, the measured capsule yield is usually lower by a factor of 5 to 10, and the ion temperature varies from simulations, while most other observables are well matched between experiment and simulation. In an effort to understand this discrepancy, we perform detailed post-shot simulations of a subset of NIF implosion experiments. Using two-dimensional HYDRA simulations [M. M. Marinak, et al., Phys. Plasmas 8, 2275 (2001).] of the capsule only, these simulations represent as accurately as possible the conditions of a given experiment, including the as-shot capsule metrology, capsule surface roughness, and ice layer defects as seeds for the growth of hydrodynamic instabilities. The radiation drive used in these capsule-only simulations can be tuned to reproduce quite well the measured implosion timing, kinematics, and low-mode asymmetry. In order to simulate the experiments as accurately as possible, a limited number of fully three-dimensional implosion simulations are also being performed. Despite detailed efforts to incorporate all of the effects known and believed to be important in determining implosion performance, substantial yield discrepancies remain between experiment and simulation. Some possible alternate scenarios and effects that could resolve this discrepancy are discussed.
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