Low Levels Of Financial Development Research Articles

Does Digital Financial Inclusion Reduce China’s Rural Household Vulnerability to Poverty: An Empirical Analysis From the Perspective of Household Entrepreneurship

This paper evaluates the impact of digital financial inclusion (DFI) powered by digital technologies on rural household vulnerability to poverty based on data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) and DFI data from the Institute of Digital Finance Peking University. The results show that both DFI and its secondary indicators reduce rural household vulnerability to poverty. Household entrepreneurship is an intermediary factor of DFI influencing vulnerability to poverty; that is, DFI stimulates rural households’ entrepreneurial behavior, thereby reducing their vulnerability to poverty. Through the analysis of income heterogeneity, financial development level, and human capital in the region, it is found that DFI is more helpful in reducing the vulnerability to poverty for rural households with low income, a low level of financial development and low human capital. Therefore, the Chinese government should map out the DFI development path, build a DFI control system with internet technologies, and actively play the mutually supporting role of DFI and other influencing factors to boost DFI development, minimize the risk of returning to poverty and thereby reduce rural household vulnerability in China.

Financial reform and innovation: Evidence from China’s Financial Reform Pilot Zones

ABSTRACT Innovation is a channel through which financial reform promotes economic growth. Drawing on the quasi-experiment of China’s Financial Reform Pilot Zones, panel data from 293 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2019, and a difference-in-differences method, this paper evaluates the effect of financial reform on innovation. We find that financial reform significantly motivated innovation by promoting financial development, such as equity market development and credit market development. Moreover, the effect of financial reform on innovation shows diminishing marginal utility: in cities that started with a lower level of financial development, the policy effect on innovation is stronger.

Does Financial Development Contribute to Fertility Decline in Developed and Developing Countries?

The “old-age security” hypotheses propose that financial market can affect individuals’ decision to have less or more children. In previous literature, children are considered an asset and investment at low level of financial development that could bring returns and security during old age. Nevertheless, at higher level of financial development, individuals have more access to fund and opportunity for investment during old age and as a result the demand for children is less. Furthermore, increase in female labour participation rate in the economic sectors will also discourage them to have more children. The development of commercial bank and non-banking financial institutions (NBFIs) has broadened credit accessibility and investment opportunity to household over the last decades. Well-developed financial system facilitates firms to access to the credit market and enhanced production efficiency and promote increases in wages in the modern market. Household have choice to move from traditional market (low wages, high fertility rate) to work in modern sector (high wages, low fertility rate). The purpose of the study is to investigate the impact of financial development on fertility for selected developed and developing countries. We employ generalized method of moment (GMM) model using annual data from 2005 to 2011. Our results found that financial development and fertility has inverse relationship for both developed and developing countries.

Fed tapering announcements: Impact on Middle Eastern and African financial markets

We study the impact of the announcements of “tapering” (exit from the unconventional monetary policies of the Federal Reserve) on a sample of 16 countries of the Middle East and Africa region. The events under study are the announcements of the Federal Open Market Committee in the context of meetings and minutes during the tapering period (2013/01–2015/04). We compare the impact on these countries with that on three emerging and advanced economies control groups. We find that the countries under study, despite a lower level of financial development, are also characterized by significant announcement effects. The dates of significant announcements are more similar to Western Europe than to the other emerging economies, which reflects major economic ties with Europe. Domestic inflation and FDI have the most significant direct and interaction effects. In particular, the direct effect of FDI is favorable, but their indirect effect is unfavorable, as in the literature on emerging countries where financial development frequently increases vulnerabilities to the impact of international monetary policy announcements. More generally, this result points to the macroeconomic issue of the absorptive capacity necessary to achieve the benefits of FDI (Durham, 2004).

Poverty prevalence and negative spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa: a focus on extreme and multidimensional poverty in the region

PurposeThe paper analyses the prevalence of extreme and multidimensional poverty in line with the sustainable development agenda. In addition, the paper examines the drivers of extreme poverty while accounting for the potential spillover effect of poverty in the region.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts the pooled OLS with Discroll-Kraay robust standard errors to control for cross-sectional dependence. In addition, given the strong potential for endogeneity of poverty index, the authors also employ the generalized method of moments (GMM), which accounts for simultaneity and endogeneity problems, and the spatial error and lag models to control for all forms of spatial and temporal dependence since the factors that affect poverty disperse across borders.FindingsThe study finds that in addition to the traditional drivers of poverty (unemployment, low per capita GDP growth and public debt), poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa is a symptom of a deeper structural problem (lack of access to water and sanitation, high level of corruption and low level of financial development, and frequent economic busts). Likewise, the results from the spatial econometric specification show, consistently across all the specifications, that there is a substantial spillover effect of poverty across the region.Originality/valueThe main novelty of the paper is that the authors investigate the “economic shrinkage hypothesis,” and examined the potential negative spillover effect of poverty in the region.

Capital controls and international trade: An industry financial vulnerability perspective

Capital control policies have consequences on economic growth and international trade. Using data on 99 countries from 1995–2014, we find evidence that the effect of capital controls on trade vary across industries that have differing levels of external financing and asset tangibility. For exporter countries that tighten capital controls, industries that rely more heavily on external financing experience a larger decline in exports, while industries that possess more tangible assets experience a smaller decline in exports. For importer countries, tighter capital controls imply a decrease in trade, and this effect is uniform across all industries. The pattern with respect to external financing persists after accounting for availability of domestic credit and the differences in industry shares, and are predominantly found in countries with low levels of financial development. On the other hand, the varying effect related to asset tangibility is mostly absorbed by domestic credit market.

The impact of stock market on enterprise capital structure in ASEAN developing countries

Capital structure is one of the topics in which business managers as well as academics are always interested, because it has many important implications. This problem in developing countries is even more relevant due to the low level of financial development in these countries, leading to uncertain access to external capital by firms. This paper focuses on the impact of stock market development on capital structure in five developing countries in ASEAN, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, for the period 2010 - 2018. Stock market development is measured in four different ways: Stock market capitalization to GDP (MACAP), total value of shares traded to GDP (LIQ1), total value of shares traded to stock market capitalization (LIQ2) and average of the three indexes (STOCK). The results show that development of stock market has different impacts on capital structure, depending on the measures used to reflect the stock market development. Specifically, MACAP, LIQ2 and STOCK do not reach statistical significance, while LIQ1 has a negative effect. In addition, firm size (SIZE), tangible assets (TANG), growth opportunities (TOBINQ), inflation (INF) and GDP growth (GDPGR) positively affect capital structure; while firms' profit (ROA) has negative effect. Based on the research findings, the research offers several implications for relevant stakeholders.

Green Credit Policy and Maturity Mismatch Risk in Polluting and Non-Polluting Companies

A major issue is whether the implementation of China’s green credit policy will affect the coordinated development of corporate sustainable operations and environmental protection. This paper used a propensity score matching—difference-in-differences (PSM-DID) model to analyse the impact of China’s green credit policy implemented in 2012 on the maturity mismatch risk between investment and financing in polluting and non-polluting companies. We found that: (1) green credit policies can help reduce the risk of maturity mismatch between investment and financing for polluting companies; (2) the reduction of short-term bank credit is the main way to curb the risk of maturity mismatch risk between investment and financing; (3) the green credit policy has no obvious mitigation effect on the risk of maturity mismatch between investment and financing among polluting companies with environmental protection investment; (4) the mitigation effect of the green credit policy on the maturity mismatch risk is more significant in state-owned polluting companies and polluting companies in areas with a lower level of financial development. The empirical results show that China’s green credit policy helps stimulate the environmental protection behaviour of companies, as well as helping alleviate the capital chain risk caused by the maturity mismatch between investment and financing. In addition, despite the effect of heterogeneity, it can solve the contradiction between environmental protection and economic development.

Re-Examination of the Relationship between Agricultural Economic Growth and Non-Point Source Pollution in China: Evidence from the Threshold Model of Financial Development

The coordinated development of agricultural economic growth and non-point source (NPS) pollution is an important task in enhancing pollution prevention. Significantly, agricultural economic growth and NPS pollution are interrelated, and their mechanism will be affected by financial development. For this reason, the current study established a panel smooth transformation regression (PSTR) model to reveal the mechanical evolution under different financial development levels. It was found that the impact of agricultural economic growth on NPS pollution was significantly positive in the low level of financial development, which is manifested as an “intensification effect”. Fortunately, when the level of financial development reaches the medium and high thresholds, agricultural economic growth will inhibit agricultural NPS pollution. At the same time it was also found that the impact of agricultural economic growth on NPS pollution is manifested as an “inhibition effect” at the overall level, but presenting significant structural differences. Specifically, the impact on the eastern and central regions of China is manifested as an “inhibition effect”, whereas the impact in the western region of China is characterized as an “intensification effect”. Finally, the elasticity analysis showed that the influence of financial development on agricultural NPS pollution was significantly positive, and that its intensification effect is ubiquitous.

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

What are the economic, political, institutional, socio-cultural, and geographical determinants of financial development in developing countries? This paper uses the two-way fixed effects (with clustered standard errors) and annual panel data from 1980 to 2018 for 69 developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East and North Africa, East and South Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean to address this question. The principal component analysis is employed to construct a financial development index based on three financial development indicators. This study builds on the previous studies by introducing new potential determinants of financial development such as the perception of corruption, and by exploring important quadratic and interaction effects. The results show that national income, trade openness, indices of political stability and Polity2 (a democracy score), perception of corruption, the predominant religion in the countries, and geographical factors such as territorial access to the sea explain the differences in the levels of financial development across countries and regions. A rise in national income leads to a higher level of financial development and countries with a high perceived level of corruption have a lower level of financial development. There is strong evidence of threshold effects as trade openness has a diminishing marginal effect on financial development while the auxiliary growth regressions show that financial development has an increasing marginal effect on national income. Of the five regions studied, East and South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa have the highest and lowest levels of financial development, respectively. Also, fuel-exporting countries, least developed countries, and landlocked countries tend to have lower levels of financial development. These results have relevant policy implications for developing countries in their continued efforts to achieve better financial development and ultimately, sustainable economic development.

DOES THE PROCYCLICALITY OF CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS AFFECT FINANCIAL STABILITY IN CEMAC?

The objective of this article is to analyze the effects of procyclical variations of the capital requirements for risk coverage on financial stability in the CEMAC[1]. In order to achieve this objective, we have specified and estimated a panel VAR model using the structural factorization method on quarterly Central Bank data over the period 2006-2017. Firstly, the results show that procyclical capital adjustments in the CEMAC region lead to short-term financial instability through the contraction of credit to the private sector. Secondly, despite the low level of financial development, the effects maintained by the adjustment of monetary policy instruments in the short term remain significant on price stability. Finally, in the long term, the procyclicality of regulatory capital makes it possible to revive economic activity and guarantee financial stability. These results lead us to recommend the adoption of a more discretionary monetary policy so as to make more procyclical the capital requirement.
 
 
 [1] Economic Community of Central African States comprising Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea.

Bank survival in Central and Eastern Europe

We analyze factors linked to bank survival on large dataset covering 17 CEE markets during the period of 2007–2015 by estimating the Cox proportional hazards model. We group banks across countries and according to their financial soundness. The overall financial development improves survival probabilities and its impact exhibits decreasing marginal returns as it is strongest in countries with lower level of financial development and banking reforms and in banks with low level of solvency. Measures of ownership structure, legal form, and corporate governance are the key economically significant factors that exhibit strongest economic effect on bank survival. Financial performance indicators predict bank survival rate with intuitively expected positive impact but their effect, in terms of economic significance, is smaller in comparison to other factors as well as the impact found in developed markets. Effect of above factors is most pronounced for banks with low financial soundness in term of their solvency. Results also appear to indicate that it makes exit more likely during the global financial crisis, shortly afterwards, and during the initial stage of the European sovereign debt crisis. This result is critical for central banks due to their regulatory and governance mandate. The results are robust with respect to size, age, and alternative assumptions on survival distribution.

Cross-Border Trade Credit and Trade Flows During the Global Financial Crisis

English Abstract: Cross-border trade credit is credit extended by exporters and importers and makes up a considerable share of the trade finance instruments used in global trade. We use quarterly data on cross-border trade credit recorded in the International Investment Position at the International Monetary Fund and examine its effects on trade flows during the 2008-09 global financial crisis. Unlike previous studies, we find not only that the effects of trade credit are positive on average, but also that these effects are more pronounced during the crisis. Specifically, we find that the decrease in trade credit explains 8.9%-10.5% of the trade collapse during the crisis. In addition, we find that the effects of trade credit on trade flows are more pronounced during the crisis for countries with a low level of financial development in the pre-crisis period.

Personal Remittances and Financial Development for Economic Growth in Economic Transition Countries

This study investigates the effect of personal remittance inflows and financial development on the economic growth of 29 economic transition countries for the period of 2000–2015. Dynamic panel system GMM estimation results show that there is a positive relationship between remittance inflows and economic growth. It also shows that remittances and the level of financial development have a substitute relationship in promoting economic growth. So the remittance inflows have a positive effect on economic growth for the countries with low levels of financial development, but they have a negative effect on such growth for countries with moderate to high levels of financial development.

The path to shared prosperity: Leveraging financial services outreach to create decent jobs in developing countries

Understanding the channels through which financial inclusion affects poverty reduction remains a key policy issue in development debates. Considering that labour is the main asset of the poor, this paper investigates the effect of financial outreach on the number of workers living below the poverty line. It also analyses whether this effect may occur through increasing investment, remittances, private credit and the number of rich workers who can provide employment opportunities to the poorest. The study finds that improving financial outreach through additional bank branches reduces the number of poor workers, especially in developing countries hit by macroeconomic instability. In addition, this effect occurs mainly through credit expansion, while other channels substitute financial outreach in countries with a low level of financial development.

Financial development curse in resource-rich countries: The role of commodity price shocks

Why do commodity-dependent developing countries have typically lower levels of financial development than their peers? The literature has proposed many possible explanations, but there is no consensus. In this paper, we explore whether the shocks to commodity prices can lead to lower financial development. We test the hypothesis on 68 commodity-rich developing countries over the period 1980–2014, and we find strong evidence of the financial development curse through the channel of commodity price shocks. We also show that the impact of these shocks can be mitigated through good quality of governance.

Financing R&D in Chinese private firms: Business associations or political connection?

Using a new and unique dataset of Chinese private firms, this paper explores how private firms access bank loans to finance innovative activities. The results reveal that political connection, rather than membership in a government-controlled business association, largely determines private firms' innovations by providing access to bank loans. Furthermore, the “grease-the-wheels” mechanism of political connection is stronger if the firms are more constrained financially, located in regions with low levels of financial development, or located in regions with relatively under-developed institutional environments. Finally, cash flow, used to measure internal financing, and trade credit, used to measure informal financing, are important alternative financing channels and support firms' R&D investments. Our paper implies that China's government needs to continue fostering a good financing environment and supporting innovation activities.

Capital Controls and International Trade: An Industry Financial Vulnerability Perspective

Capital control policies have consequences for economic growth and international trade. Using data on 99 countries from 1995 to 2014, we find evidence that the effect of capital controls on trade vary across industries that have differing levels of external financing and asset tangibility. For exporting countries that tighten capital controls, industries that rely more heavily on external financing experience a larger decline in exports, while industries that possess more tangible assets experience a smaller decline in exports. For importing countries, tighter capital controls imply a decrease in trade, and this effect is uniform across all industries. The pattern with respect to external financing persists after accounting for availability of domestic credit and differences in industry shares and is predominantly found in countries with low levels of financial development. On the other hand, the varying effect related to asset tangibility is mostly absorbed by the domestic credit market.

DOES FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT EXPLAIN THE CYCLICALITY OF MONETARY POLICY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA?

This paper evaluates the influence of financial development on the cyclicality of monetary policy in a sample of 22 Sub Saharan African countries. We use a GMM model to estimate an equation of monetary policy stance based on Taylori¯s rule over the period 1984-2012. We obtain the following results. Monetary policy is pro-cyclical in Sub Saharan African countries. Central Banks implement counter-cyclical monetary policy when the country exhibits high level of financial development and pro-cyclical monetary policy in the presence of low level of financial development. The threshold level at which monetary policy is a-cyclical lies between 15% and 18%.

Remittances, finance and growth: Does financial development foster the impact of remittances on economic growth?

Abstract There is no consensus in the literature regarding the long-run impact of remittances on economic growth. Previous studies have shown that it might be related to financial development in the transfer-receiving country, but the direction of the link remained unclear. I contribute to this literature by using a newly created index of overall financial development and two different estimation methods. I measure the importance of remittances given financial development for economic growth in developing countries. As there is no widely accepted measure of financial sector development, I estimate an index of overall financial conditions. It is created by means of an unobserved components model and used to determine the relevance of the financial sector as a transmission channel for remittances to affect economic growth. I show that the more financially developed a country is, the smaller the impact of remittances on economic growth. Remittances can foster growth, but the effect is significant only at low levels of financial development. This is in line with previous studies, which found remittances and financial development to be substitutes. However, the interaction between the two factors becomes weaker once size, depth and efficiency of the financial sector are taken into account. My results suggest that, while attracting migrants’ transfers can have important short-run poverty-alleviating advantages, in the long-run it might be more beneficial for governments to foster financial sector development.