Low-level Flow Research Articles

Dynamic comparative analysis of different types of precipitation caused by landfalling strong typhoons over South China

Based on multiple datasets, a comparative analysis has investigated the different rainfall distributions and the factors related to strong (weak) rainfall induced by landfalling strong typhoons moving northwest (SR-NWLFSTYs, WR-NWLFSTYs) which are defined from the tracks, the locations, and intensities of the rainfall center of LFSTYs based on a dynamic composite analysis method.The obviously stronger rainfall induced by SR-NWLFSTYs, with the intensive rainfall center presenting a cyclonic rotation in the lifecycle of typhoons, tends to be accompanied by the pronouncedly enhanced low-level jet and a warmer SST before and during landfall. Owing to the enhanced low-level jet, moisture convergence experiences an intensification, resulting in a warmer and more humid circulation. Sufficient water vapor and latent heat is favorable for the enhancement of the mid-troposphere warm core structure with longer maintenance which can prolong the impact period of typhoons, leading to continuous precipitation. Simultaneously, the coupling of low-level convergence and upper-level divergence provides favorable dynamic conditions, thus further promoting the upward transportation of moisture through Ekman pumping, which tends to increase the mid-troposphere moisture through moisture advection. The changes in the mid-troposphere moisture coincide well with the evolution of rainfall over the same region during the lifecycle of typhoons.Comparatively, the asymmetric rainfall features of WR-NWLFSTYs with intense rainfall center mainly placed in the northeast quarter of the TC center during the lifecycle of TCs is likely related to the relatively weaker low-level jet which remains almost constant during and after landfall. The weaker low-level flow transports less moisture into the cyclone, and prohibits the weakening of vertical wind shear after landfall, leading to reduced precipitation with an obvious asymmetric distribution. Concurrently, the configuration of the weakening upper-level divergence and low-level convergence after landfall has been unable to maintain the upward motion for precipitation, resulting in relatively weaker rainfall for WR-NWLFSTYs.

Effects of the Topography of Sumatra on Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Indian Ocean

One-quarter of the world’s tropical cyclones (TCs) occur in the Indian Ocean (IO) basin.The mechanisms for TC initiation in the IO are varied, but one recently discovered process involves the flow around the steep topography of Sumatra. When the low-level flow impinges on Sumatra, it is blocked and the flow splits under typical environmental stratification. As a result, wake vortices commonly develop at northern and southern island tips of the island. For the case of easterly flow, these circulationssubsequently move downstream over the IO. The wake vortices emanating from the island tips are counter-rotating, but since Sumatra straddles the equator, the circulations are cyclonic in both hemispheres and thus have the potential for TC development. Using data from2.5yearsof observations from DYNAMO and YOTC, it is found that approximately 25% of the TCsthat occurred overIO basin during that periodwere initiated by Sumatra-induced wake vortices.Additional analysis of vortex statistics for the period 2008-17 has found that vortex counts are highest near Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase 1 when low-level easterlies are strongest across southern Sumatra. A secondary peak in vortex formation occurs during MJO phase 4 when low-level westerlies exist near the equator west of Sumatra. The latter finding suggests that MJO-related, low-level westerly surges on the equator impinging on Sumatracontribute to an increase in wake vortex development. Numerical simulations have shown that circulations farther upstream such aswestern Pacific remnant TCs and the Borneo vortex can influence the development of Sumatra wake vortices and their growth into TCs over the IO.

Response of Extratropical Transitioning Tropical Cyclone Size to Ocean Warming: A Case Study for Typhoon Songda in 2016

This study attempts to investigate how future sea surface temperature increases will affect the size (radius of gale-force [17 m s−1] wind at 10 m height; i.e., R17) evolution of tropical cyclones that undergo extratropical transition (ET) through sensitivity experiments of sea surface temperature (SST) for Typhoon Songda (2016) in the northwestern Pacific. Two numerical experiments were carried out, including a control simulation (control) and a sensitivity experiment (SST4.5) with SST increased by 4.5 degrees in the entire domain. The results showed that Songda tended to be stronger and larger with projected higher SSTs. Moreover, the momentum equation for tangential wind was utilized to study the mechanism of R17 evolution in different SST scenarios, in which the radial absolute vorticity flux term played a dominant role in generating a positive tendency of tangential wind. The results indicate that before ET, higher SSTs in the entire domain led to more active rainbands in both inner-core and outer-core regions. As a result, stronger secondary circulation and low-level inflow extended outward, and the absolute angular momentum (AAM) importing from the outer region increased, which led to a larger R17 in SST4.5. During the ET, the peripheral baroclinically driven frontal convection induced extensive boundary layer inflow, which accelerated the tangential flow in the outer frontal region through strong inward AAM transport. However, due to the lower latitude of the cyclone and the strong frontolysis at the outer side of the cold pool in SST4.5, the peripheral frontal convection reached the location of R17 later; thus, the increase in the cyclone size lagged behind that in the control.

River delta eco-morphodynamics under changing scenarios: The case of Lake Turkana, Kenya

In this work we explore the impact that changes in local climate and river hydrology have on the morphodynamics of a river delta, particularly focusing on the evolution of the delta generating at the lake inlet. We investigated the case of the delta in the lower reach of the Omo River in Ethiopia, which flows into lake Turkana, Kenya. The lake is the fourth largest lake and the largest desert lake in the world. This case study is of particular interest because within the last decades three dams have been built within the Omo basin. Among these, the Gibe III dam had a huge impact on the river hydrology and the sediment supply. To quantify changes in land use and river morphology and relate these to climate change and river hydrology we collated a historical dataset by combining information from different satellite sources. We observed that the amount of bare sediments progressively diminished and the biomass became denser compared to the existence of sparse biomass in the past. We argue that this is due to the changes in river hydrology and sediment load imposed by the dam, which increased sediment erosion by deepening the channel. The presence of the dam also increased the low flow level and reduced the peak flow during flood season, reducing the natural oscillations of the water table. In consequence, the possibility to plant for the local population was removed during floods. Our findings also indicate that the hydrology and reduced sediment discharge have changed the downstream (e.g. lake level), and upstream (e.g. mouth bar deposition) boundary conditions controlling the evolution of the delta structure, respectively. As a result, the delta morphology became less dynamic and less complex.

Cut-Off Lows over South Africa: A Review

Every year, cut-off low (COL) pressure systems produce severe weather conditions and heavy rainfall, often leading to flooding, devastation and disruption of socio-economic activities in South Africa. COLs are defined as cold-cored synoptic-scale mid-tropospheric low-pressure systems which occur in the mid-latitudes and cause persistent heavy rainfall. As they occur throughout the year, these weather systems are important rainfall producing systems that are also associated with extreme cold conditions and snowfalls. An in-depth review of COLs is critical due to their high impacts which affect some parts of the country regularly, affecting lives and livelihoods. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of the literature on COLs over the South African domain, whilst also comparing them with their Southern Hemisphere counterparts occurring in South America and Australia. We focus on the occurrence, development, propagation, dynamical processes and impacts of COLs on society and the environment. We also seek to understand stratospheric–tropospheric exchanges resulting from tropopause folding during the occurrence of COLs. Sometimes, COLs may extend to the surface, creating conditions conducive to extreme rainfall and high floods over South Africa, especially when impinged on the coastal escarpment. The slow propagation of COLs appears to be largely modulated by a quasi-stationary high-pressure system downstream acting as a blocking system. We also reviewed two severe COL events that occurred over the south and east coasts and found that in both cases, interactions of the low-level flow with the escarpment enhanced lifting and deep convection. It was also determined from the literature that several numerical weather prediction models struggle with placement and amounts of rainfall associated with COLs, both near the coast and on the interior plateau. Our study provides the single most comprehensive treatise that deals with COL characteristics affecting the South African domain.

Objectively Diagnosing Characteristics of Mesoscale Organization from Radar Reflectivity and Ambient Winds

Abstract In the classical model of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), a system generates new convective cells on the downshear side of its cold pool, with the cells fed at low levels from the front, and the stratiform cloud trailing behind the system in the upshear direction, where “front” and “behind” typically refer to the system’s ground-relative velocity. In this study we present an algorithm for identifying and tracking MCSs in radar reflectivity data, and objectively diagnosing organizational characteristics related to the classical model, namely, the offset of stratiform cloud from convective cloud relative to system velocity, the low-level inflow direction, and the shear-relative tilt and propagation directions. When applied to the 15-yr radar record covering the Darwin region of northern Australia, the algorithm indicates that 65%–80% of MCS observations are consistent with the classical model, at least when the four classifications can be made unambiguously. However, these observed characteristics occur almost entirely in the drier phases of the Australian monsoon. During the humid, active monsoon phase, observed characteristics consistent with the classical model are rare, and most systems exhibit nonclassical upshear propagation. Significance Statement In this study we developed a computer program for tracking large storms in radar data. The program tracks storms through time and space, recording their three-dimensional structure. Knowledge of this structure allows our program to automatically put storms into different, commonly used categories. These categories provide clues about the processes that can make storms grow, persist, or decay. Our computer program is useful because the classification process is very time consuming when done by humans. Also, when applied to radar datasets from northern Australia, our program suggests most large storms are consistent with standard theories of what make storms grow and persist. However, when the air is very humid, large storms inconsistent with standard theories become common.

Salamander Movement Propensity Resists Effects of Supraseasonal Drought

Movement can act as an effective strategy used by amphibians to avoid detrimental environmental conditions, particularly drought. However, due to the unpredictable nature of droughts, evaluating the patterns and consequences of movement has rarely been investigated. In 2007–2008, the southeastern United States experienced a supraseasonal drought that resulted in 110 yr low flow levels among the first-order streams. In this study, 61 months of mark–recapture data collected from one first-order stream were used to examine the effects of drought on the movement frequency distribution, survival, and growth rates of adult Desmognathus fuscus (Northern Dusky Salamander). We hypothesized that salamanders would demonstrate a higher propensity to move during supraseasonal drought conditions and that moving salamanders would experience higher survival and growth rates. We found that salamanders were more likely to move immediately after the drought compared to the pre-drought and drought conditions. Although movement frequency was low during the drought, survival was higher for individuals who moved during drought conditions in comparison to individuals who remained in their original capture location. Although our model did not detect a trend, salamanders experienced slightly higher growth in the post-drought conditions compared to drought and pre-drought conditions. In addition, during the post-drought, salamanders that moved had slightly higher growth rates compared to salamanders who remained in their original capture location. Our results suggest that adult salamanders were potentially displaying an adaptive movement strategy to resist drought conditions by moving away from affected (i.e., dry) areas within the study stream. In addition, movement was likely utilized to access replenished resources in other areas after the severe effects of the drought ended. Therefore, both in-stream and riparian barriers that impede movement may inhibit resilience of stream amphibians during severe droughts.

Influence of a cattle access point on temporal changes in stream turbidity

Unrestricted cattle access can have negative impacts on aquatic systems, including increases in stream water turbidity and suspended sediment levels. Many agri-environmental policies require the exclusion of livestock from waterbodies; however, data that quantify these impacts are scarce. This study used sensors measuring turbidity, a proxy for suspended sediment, together with motion-detecting cameras, to examine the influence of cattle in-stream activity on water quality in north-east Ireland. Two nephelometers, which automatically measured and logged turbidity, were placed upstream and downstream of a cattle access point in July 2017, while cameras were used to record cattle behaviour. A second deployment was made during February 2018 when cattle were absent. During low flows, frequent short-lived increases in turbidity were recorded at the downstream nephelometer only. These coincided with cattle accessing the water. There was a significant positive relationship between the longitudinal differences (downstream − upstream) in turbidity and the total number of cattle accessing the stream. There was no relationship between turbidity and stream discharge in July (when cattle were present), although that period was dominated by lower flow levels, with only 2 days in which discharge increased above baseflow. In contrast, there were no similar short-lived increases in turbidity in February 2018 when cattle were absent from the field, but there was a strong significant positive relationship between stream discharge and turbidity. These results highlight the consequences of cattle access for water column turbidity levels, particularly during periods of low streamflow, and therefore inform future agri-environmental policy in Ireland.

Stationary and Transient Asymmetric Features in Tropical Cyclone Eye with Wavenumber-1 Instability: Case Study for Typhoon Haishen (2020) with Atmospheric Motion Vectors from 30-Second Imaging

Abstract Dynamics of low-level flows in the eye of Typhoon Haishen (2020) in its late phase of intensification are investigated with a special rapid-scan observation of the Himawari-8 geosynchronous satellite conducted every 30 s. This is accomplished by deriving storm-relative atmospheric motion vectors at an unprecedentedly high spatiotemporal resolution by tracking clouds across five consecutive visible-light reflectivity. The overall low-level circulation center was situated several kilometers away from the storm center defined in terms of the inner edge of the lower part of eyewall clouds. The shift direction is rearward of the storm translation, consistently with a numerical study of the tropical cyclone (TC) boundary layer. Over the analysis period of 10 h, azimuthal-mean tangential wind around this center was increased at each radius within the eye, and the rotational angular velocity was nearly homogenized. The instantaneous low-level circulation center is found to orbit around the overall circulation center at distances around 5 km. Its orbital angular speed was close to the maximum angular speed of azimuthal-mean tangential winds. This rotating transient disturbance is found to transport angular momentum inward, which explains the tangential wind increase and the angular velocity homogenization in the eye. These features are consistent with an algebraically growing wavenumber-1 barotropic instability, whose impact on TC structures has not been explored. This instability enhances wavenumber-1 asymmetry in ring-shaped vorticity, which can be induced by various processes such as translation, environmental shear, and exponential barotropic instability. Therefore, it may appear broadly in TCs to affect wind distribution in their eyes. Significance Statement Axially asymmetric transient features in the inner cores of tropical storms have been suggested to profoundly affect the structures and the time evolutions of tropical storms. However, the scarcity of observations has hindered studying such processes observationally. By using a specially conducted high-frequency satellite imaging of Typhoon Haishen (2020), we derived atmospheric motion vectors nearly homogeneously at an unprecedentedly high spatiotemporal resolution. Various kinds of asymmetric motions in low-level flows in the eye were found. Of particular interest is a special type of wavenumber-1 instability whose role has not drawn much attention; the instability was found to provide angular momentum transport consistent with the measured homogenization of the rotation.

Orographic Controls over Convection in an Inter-Andean Valley in Northern South America

Abstract Convective processes are critical in the northernmost section of the Andes, where highly complex orography combines with tropical dynamics to produce intense precipitating systems. Data from satellite and ground radar have shown that Colombia’s central Magdalena valley has a marked precipitation diurnal cycle, with high rainfall rates produced by deep convective events that intensify on the foothills of the surrounding valley. This study aims to contribute to the understanding of the orographic controls imposed on the convective activity observed in this important tropical valley. The atmospheric environments associated with convective events are assessed using WRF high-resolution simulations for a two-week period that includes intense rainfall events and marked dry spells. In addition, a simulation with modified orography is evaluated to analyze further the effect of topography in controlling the observed convective systems. The results suggest that northward and southward wind regimes channeled by the valley’s topography and cross-valley flow result in a robust nocturnal convergence zone, which is associated with the strong diurnal cycle and the valley configuration. Furthermore, northerly low-level flow is an important source of moisture for convection in the valley. Additionally, results show midlevel tropospheric heating enhancement during days with more rainfall produced by convective systems in the western slope of the valley. The modified topography simulation suggests that circulation and precipitation in the valley are strongly dependent on the actual terrain features.

Extreme Wildfire Environments and Their Impacts Occurring with Offshore-Directed Winds across the Pacific Coast States

Abstract Wildfires that posed an immediate threat to life and property during the period 1933–2021 were examined across the Pacific Coast states of California, Oregon, and Washington. Such fires were identified in local, state, and federal data archives and other sources that yielded 150 events for analysis. A subset of those fires was sorted into one of two synoptic-scale patterns associated with an autumn-season offshore-directed low-level flow regime and a summer-season non-offshore-directed low-level flow regime. Proximity analysis soundings near the offshore wind-driven wildfires frequently displayed ingredients that supported gap and mountain-wave development, which were responsible for generating fast-moving wildfires, long-distance spotting, and firebrand showers that resulted in loss of life and property. Paradoxically, the most extreme combinations of strong winds and low relative humidity were observed near high-population centers in Southern California, yet the most destructive and deadly fires were in less-populated regions of northern California and western Oregon. Additional analysis of 40 Fire Behavior Fuel Models data, housing development in the wildland–urban interface, and U.S. census demographic information revealed that the northern California and western Oregon wildfires were associated with more devastating outcomes because 1) a higher ratio of communities were intermixed with flammable fuels, 2) fire ignitions of an electrical origin occurred in wind-prone corridors that were upstream from communities, and 3) communities in northern California and western Oregon were composed of a greater percentage of socially vulnerable people such as the elderly who were less capable of perceiving and evading intense rapidly evolving wildfires.

Thermodynamic and kinematic structure of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific based on ACARS/AMDAR

Meteorological variables are often reported by commercial aircraft flying around tropical cyclones (TCs). They are archived in Aircraft Communications, Addressing, and Reporting System/Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (ACARS/AMDAR). Therefore, they are potentially useful for constructing a composite mean structure of TCs based on in-situ measurements. The number of temperature and wind observations are 4.0 × 106 and 1.0 × 104 within the radius of 1,200 km and 100 km from the TC center during 2010–2020, respectively. The warm-core potential temperature anomaly with respect to the climatology is 6.4 K, 9.1 K, and 14.4 K maximized around 300 hPa for weak, moderate, and strong TCs, respectively. The composite of the potential temperature anomaly potentially extends more than 1,000 km from the TC center in the upper troposphere, cautioning the typical definition of the environment. The region of significant upper-level positive potential temperature anomalies extends broadly with increasing TC intensity. Moreover, large TCs tend to have a broad and deep upper-level warm core for a given intensity. In addition, we ensured that a single observation of potential temperature around 300 hPa could be used as a proxy for minimum sea level pressure. Low-level inflow and upper-level outflow were detected in the ACARS/AMDAR data.

Radiative Effects on Tropical Cyclone Development in Different Life Stages

Abstract A tropical cyclone (TC) is a powerful, rotating storm that typically originates over warm tropical oceans and creates strong winds and heavy rain; it is usually a natural disaster with respect to human life and property if it moves over land. This work examines effects of varying radiative forcing on the evolution of two typhoon cases—Typhoon Lionrock (2016) and Typhoon Hagibis (2019)—with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Hagibis was a rapidly intensifying and quickly moving TC, whereas Lionrock gradually developed and was slow moving. Numerous sensitivity experiments in which shortwave and longwave radiative heating rates were modified were conducted. This study examined latent heating and radiative heating for each experiment. Substantial differences between the sensitivity simulation members indicated that radiative effects can strongly influence TC development. The analysis of diabatic heating sources shows that, before eyewall formation, the differential cooling effect, which indicates that longwave cooling rates between cloud clusters and clear sky differ, can promote low-level inflow and increase relative humidity in the cloud clusters. If the initial relative humidity is low, this effect becomes important because, without differential cooling, the relative humidity remains low, which can promote the generation of cold pools that will prevent cyclone development. After eyewall formation, both the change in temperature lapse rate due to a vertical gradient of radiative heating/cooling and the change in the warm core due to radiative heating/cooling can affect the intensity of a TC; however, the net effect may depend on the magnitude of these influences.

Diurnal Cycle and Dipolar Pattern of Precipitation over Borneo during an MJO Event: Lee Convergence and Offshore Propagation

Abstract Surface precipitation anomalies over Maritime Continent islands typically lead oceanic precipitation by a week in the form of dipolar pattern before the arrival of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) convective phase. The authors study this dipolar pattern over Borneo during the boreal winter MJO event in January–February 2017 using cloud-permitting modeling, observation, and reanalysis datasets. The diurnal cycles of precipitation are analyzed during the local growing and decaying stages of this MJO event. Both the observation and simulation show positive precipitation anomaly over southwestern Borneo and negative anomaly over northeastern Borneo associated with the MJO easterly in the growing stage, whereas the pattern reverses in the decaying stage. Due to relatively high terrain, the low-level flows over Borneo split near the topography on the diurnal time scale. During the late afternoon and night (1700–2000 local solar time), the splitting-flow-induced wake vortices and thermally driven sea breezes tend to converge at the leeside, both contributing to leeward convergence and precipitation, which peaks at midnight. Subsequent offshore propagation during midnight and early morning develops from the leeward inland convection, and propagates northwestwards in the growing stage over west Borneo, and eastward in the decaying stage over east Borneo. Offshore propagation lasts until the next noon when sea breezes and island convection initiate. The timing and location of the offshore propagation suggest that it is not an independent convective mode. Instead, it is tied to the dipolar distribution of island precipitation modulated by the MJO.

Orographic Effects on Landfalling Lake-Effect Systems

Abstract Landfalling lake- and sea-effect (hereafter lake-effect) systems often interact with orography, altering the distribution and intensity of precipitation, which frequently falls as snow. In this study, we examine the influence of orography on two modes of lake-effect systems: long-lake-axis-parallel (LLAP) bands and broad-coverage, open-cell convection. Specifically, we generate idealized large-eddy simulations of a LLAP band produced by an oval lake and broad-coverage, open-cell convection produced by an open lake (i.e., without flanking shorelines) with a downstream coastal plain, 500-m peak, and 2000-m ridge. Without terrain, the LLAP band intersects a coastal baroclinic zone over which ascent and hydrometeor mass growth are maximized, with transport and fallout producing an inland precipitation maximum. The 500-m peak does not significantly alter this structure, but slightly enhances precipitation due to orographic ascent, increased hydrometeor mass growth, and reduced subcloud sublimation. In contrast, a 2000-m ridge disrupts the band by blocking the continental flow that flanks the coastlines. This, combined with differential surface heating between the lake and land, leads to low-level flow reversal, shifting the coastal baroclinic zone and precipitation maximum offshore. In contrast, the flow moves over the terrain in open lake, open-cell simulations. Over the 500-m peak, this yields an increase in the frequency of weaker (<1 m s−1) updrafts and weak precipitation enhancement, although stronger updrafts decline. Over the 2000-m ridge, however, buoyancy and convective vigor increase dramatically, contributing to an eightfold increase in precipitation. Overall, these results highlight differences in the influence of orography on two common lake-effect modes. Significance Statement Landfalling lake- and sea-effect snowstorms frequently interact with hills, mountains, and upland regions, altering the distribution and intensity of snowfall. Using high-resolution numerical modeling with simplified lake shapes and terrain features, we illustrate how terrain features affect two common types of lake-effect storms and why long-lake-axis-parallel (LLAP) bands can feature high precipitation rates but weaker orographic enhancement than broad-coverage, open-cell convection.

Dynamical links of convective storms associated with tropospheric biennial oscillation in the Indian monsoon regime

Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO) is characterized by a tendency for a relatively stronger monsoon to be followed by a relatively weaker one (positive) or vice-versa (negative). This study examines the distribution of different convective systems occurring during TBO phases over the Indian monsoon region. During negative TBO phase, convection is preferential over the Arabian Sea (AS), whereas during positive TBO phase, it is favoured over the land areas and Bay of Bengal (BoB). The isolated shallow convection (ISC) is dominated over the AS and Indian west coast during negative TBO years. A relatively stable environment (statically) capped with drier mid-troposphere results in abundant ISC over the AS. Broad stratiform rain (BSR) dominates over the central and east coast of India, BoB and Myanmar coast during positive TBO years and wide convective core (WCC) are present along the orographic regions, i.e., Myanmar coast and Western Ghats during negative TBO phase. The anomalous easterlies induced by the upper-ocean temperature gradient interact with the mean monsoon winds during positive TBO to provide pathways for developing BSR echoes. The deep-wide convection (DWC) are higher along the Himalayan foothills during positive TBO years. The moist low-level flow from the AS is trapped by dry mid-level flow from high latitudes, resulting in orographic lifting along the Himalayan foothills and form DWC.

Environmental Controls on Simulated Deep Moist Convection Initiation Occurring during RELAMPAGO-CACTI

Abstract This study synthesizes the results of 13 high-resolution simulations of deep convective updrafts forming over idealized terrain using environments observed during the RELAMPAGO and CACTI field projects. Using composite soundings from multiple observed cases, and variations upon them, we explore the sensitivity of updraft properties (e.g., size, buoyancy, and vertical pressure gradient forces) to influences of environmental relative humidity, wind shear, and mesoscale orographic forcing that support or suppress deep convection initiation (CI). Emphasis is placed on differentiating physical processes affecting the development of updrafts (e.g., entrainment-driven dilution of updrafts) in environments typifying observed successful and null (i.e., no CI despite affirmative operational forecasts) CI events. Thermally induced mesoscale orographic lift favors the production of deep updrafts originating from ∼1- to 2-km-wide boundary layer thermals. Simulations without terrain forcing required much larger (∼5-km-wide) thermals to yield precipitating convection. CI outcome was quite sensitive to environmental relative humidity; updrafts with increased buoyancy, depth, and intensity thrived in otherwise inhospitable environments by simply increasing the free-tropospheric relative humidity. This implicates the entrainment of free-tropospheric air into updrafts as a prominent governor of CI, consistent with previous studies. Sensitivity of CI to the environmental wind is manifested by 1) low-level flow affecting the strength and depth of mesoscale convergence along the terrain, and 2) clouds encountering updraft-suppressing pressure gradient forces while interacting with vertical wind shear in the free troposphere. Among the ensemble of thermals occurring in each simulation, the widest deep updrafts in each simulation were the most sensitive to environmental influences.

A Climatology of Snow Squalls in Southern New England 1994–2018

Abstract Snow squalls are sudden snow events that last less than 1 h, are characterized by low visibility and gusty winds, and can result in notable societal impacts. This analysis develops a climatology of non-lake-effect snow squall events in southern New England for 1994–2018 and investigates the synoptic environment and mesoscale factors conducive to their formation. National Weather Service surface observations were used to identify events; sea level pressure maps, composite radar charts, and a cell-tracking algorithm were used to determine their organization and movement; and ERA5 hourly reanalysis data were used to analyze the associated synoptic and infer mesoscale features, as well as convective and symmetric instability. A total of 100 events were identified and categorized into four distinct types on the basis of the direction of movement of the associated radar echoes, which is closely linked to characteristic synoptic structures and mesoscale factors. The four types are Classic (squall movement from the northwest; 72 events), Atlantic (from the southwest; 15 events), Northern (from the north; 9 events), and Special (varying; 4 events). All types have a 500-hPa trough over the Northeast but differ in the structure of the trough and its relation to lower-level flow, which accounts for the differences in movement of the squalls. The snow events occur in shallow, convective squall lines, and the ingredients for convection were present in all cases. Both upright and symmetric instability are typically present, all cases had at least one lower-tropospheric layer with cyclonic differential vorticity advection, and many cases were also associated with frontogenesis.

The Dodge City Tornadoes on 24 May 2016: Understanding Cycloidal Marks in Surface Damage Tracks and Further Analysis of the Debris Cloud

Abstract Mobile, polarimetric radar data were collected on a series of tornadoes that occurred near Dodge City, Kansas. A poststorm survey revealed a series of tornadic debris swaths in several dirt fields and high-resolution pictures of the tornado documented the visual characteristics of the tornado and the lofted debris cloud. The main rotational couplet associated with the tornado was identified in the single-Doppler velocities; however, no secondary rotational couplets were resolved in the low-level data performed during two consecutive volume scans. Numerical simulations have suggested that cycloidal damage swaths can result when debris is deposited as the low-level inflow turns upward in the corner region of the updraft annulus of the tornado core. This mechanism can dominate even when suction vortices are present in the simulations and can produce these swaths in the absence of these smaller-scale vortices. It is hypothesized that the observed cycloidal damage swaths were a result of the low-level inflow in the corner region of the tornado and not by the existence of suction vortices. Polarimetric data were combined with photographs of the tornado in order to document the lofted debris cloud and its relationship with the funnel. This analysis provided an opportunity to investigate whether recent findings describing the cross-correlation coefficient ρhv and differential reflectivity ZDR signatures of the lofted debris cloud could be replicated. Regions of low ρhv at the periphery of the funnel cloud suggesting high debris loading and a column of negative ZDR centered on the tornado believed to be produced by common debris alignment were noted. Significance Statement It is well known that some tornadoes produce smaller-scale vortices that rotate around the central axis of the main circulation. In addition, numerous aerial photographs have documented cycloidal debris marks within tornado damage tracks that traverse open fields. The prevailing theory shown in numerous textbooks is that these marks are produced by these vortices. The current study suggests that this widely accepted model for producing these marks may be incorrect. It is suggested that these cycloidal marks are produced by the main tornado circulation and not by the smaller-scale vortices in this case.

WSR-88D Sidelobe Contamination: From a Conceptual Model to Diagnostic Strategies for Improving NWS Warning Performance

Abstract Providing timely warnings for severe and potentially tornadic convection is a critical component of the NWS mission, and owing to the associated large reflectivity gradients, sidelobe contamination is possible. This paper focuses on elevation sidelobe contamination appearing in the low-level inflow region of supercells. A qualitative conceptual model of the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) antenna pattern interacting with supercells is introduced, along with Doppler power spectrum representations of the potential mix of returned power from the main lobe and the sidelobes. These tools inform the multiple ways elevation sidelobe contamination appears in the low levels, primarily below 3 km (10 kft) of radar data. The most common manifestation is somewhat noisy data similar to particulates or biota in clear air. Trained NWS forecasters are accustomed to mentally filtering out noisy clear-air returns as less important. Elevation sidelobe contamination can be mixed with the three-body scatter spike (TBSS) artifact, though the TBSS remains the more salient feature. The most consequential form is the apparent circulation, and when it is incorrectly interpreted as valid, contributes to the false alarm ratio (FAR) for NWS tornado warnings. Quantitative results on the effect of elevation sidelobe contamination on FAR are presented. Diagnostic techniques are emphasized, and with familiarization, can be used in real-time warning operations to identify the apparent circulation as either valid or an imposter. Identification of these contaminated velocity signatures offers a unique opportunity to reduce the NWS tornado warning FAR without also reducing the probability of detection (POD). Significance Statement The WSR-88D weather radars provide overall high-quality data for users. However, with some severe thunderstorms, an artifact called elevation sidelobe contamination can produce what looks like a rotation signature, but it may not be real. These ambiguous velocity signatures can contribute to tornado warnings based on rotation signatures that are false circulations. This paper specifically focuses on elevation sidelobe contamination due to its impact on tornado warning decisions. Diagnostic techniques, including several examples, are presented here to aid the reader in correctly identifying elevation sidelobe contamination and why it may occur. Correct identification of an apparent circulation as an imposter due to contamination is a unique opportunity to improve NWS tornado warning performance by reducing warning false alarms.