Low Emission Scenarios Research Articles

Climate change and the future of the Olympic Winter Games: athlete and coach perspectives

ABSTRACT The International Olympic Committee recognizes the risks climate change pose to the Games and its responsibility to lead on climate action. Winter is changing at the past Olympic Winter Games (OWG) locations and an important perspective to understand climate change risk is that of the athletes who put themselves at risk during these mega-sport events. A survey of 339 elite athletes and coaches from 20 countries was used to define fair and safe conditions for snow sports competitions. The frequency of unfair-unsafe conditions has increased over the last 50 years across the 21 OWG host locations. The probability of unfair-unsafe conditions increases under all future climate change scenarios. In a low emission scenario aligned to the Paris Climate Agreement, the number of climate reliable hosts remains almost unchanged throughout the twenty-first century (nine in mid-century, eight in late century). The geography of the OWG changes radically if global emissions remain on the trajectory of the last two decades, leaving only one reliable host city by the end of the century. Athletes expressed trepidation over the future of their sport and the need for the sporting world to be a powerful force to inspire and accelerate climate action.

Impacts of marine heatwaves on tropical western and central Pacific Island nations and their communities

Marine heatwaves can have devastating impacts on marine species and habitats, often with flow-on effects to human communities and livelihoods. This is of particular importance to Pacific Island countries that rely heavily on coastal and ocean resources, and for which projected increases in future marine heatwave (MHW) frequency, intensity, and duration could be detrimental across the Pacific Island region. In this study, we investigate MHWs in the tropical western and central Pacific Ocean region, focusing on observed MHWs, their associated impacts, and future projections using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations under a low (SSP1–2.6) and a high (SSP5–8.5) greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Documented impacts from “Moderate” mean intensity MHW events in Fiji, Samoa, and Palau, that were categorised as “Strong” at their peak, included fish and invertebrate mortality and coral bleaching. Based on CMIP6 multi-model mean estimates, and relative to current baselines, “Moderate” intensity MHWs are projected to increase from recent historical (1995–2014) values of 10–50 days per year (dpy) across the region to the equivalent of >100 dpy by the year 2050 under the low emissions scenario, and > 200 dpy nearer the equator. Under the high emissions scenario, 200 dpy of Moderate MHW intensities are projected across most of the region by 2050, with >300 dpy nearer the equator. For the most intense “Extreme” category of MHW, estimates range from <1 dpy under the current climate to >50 dpy projected under the high emissions scenario by 2050. In contrast, “Extreme” MHWs are projected to increase to <5 dpy by 2050 under the low emissions scenario, highlighting the importance for Pacific Island nations that global emissions more closely follow the low emissions scenario trajectory. • Marine heatwaves are impacting Pacific Island communities. • Projected increase in marine heatwave metrics in tropical central-western Pacific. • Poses threats to tropical central-western Pacific Island nation food security. • Case studies and impacts in Fiji, Samoa and Palau.

Current and future burdens of heat-related dementia hospital admissions in England.

The impacts of a changing climate on current and future dementia burdens have not been widely explored. Time-series negative binomial regression analysis was used to assess acute associations between daily ambient temperature and counts of emergency admissions for dementia in each Government region of England, adjusting for season and day-of-week. Using the latest climate and dementia projections data, we then estimate future heat-related dementia burdens under a high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), where global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to rise, and a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6), where GHG emissions are sizeably reduced under a strong global mitigation policy. A raised risk associated with high temperatures was observed in all regions. Nationally, a 4.5% (95% Confidence interval (CI) 2.9%-6.1%) increase in risk of dementia admission was observed for every 1°C increase in temperature above 17°C associated with current climate. Under a high emissions scenario, heat-related admissions are projected to increase by almost 300% by 2040 compared to baseline levels. People living with dementia should be considered a high-risk group during hot weather. Our results support arguments for more stringent climate change mitigation policies.

Simulation and analysis of maize (Zea mays L.) yield trend under different emission scenarios in Ludhiana district of Punjab

The study helps us to understand the future scenario of maize yield under current farming practices. The maximum, minimum temperature and rainfall as projected by the four selected global circulation models (GCMs) (CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, FIO-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-MR and Ensemble of seventeen GCMs) were used for yield simulation of maize cultivars (PMH1 and PMH2) in Ludhiana region of Punjab using CERES-Maize. Yield decline was observed under experimental dates of sowing (28th May, 6th June, 15th June and 24th June) for all the GCMs except FIO-ESM which predicted increase in yield for both the cultivars PMH1 (+22.13)) and PMH2 (+14.28) on 24th June. The projections revealed that the region can experience large decrement in maize yield under RCP 8.5 (high emission scenario) and small under RCP 2.6 (low emission scenario). Though the second fortnight of June could be considered as a better sowing date but a single model prediction is not reliable. Thus, further analysis of sowing window is required.

Past and future coastal flooding in Pacific Small-Island Nations: insights from the Pacific Sea Level and Geodetic Monitoring (PSLGM) Project tide gauges

Sea level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding globally, and low-lying communities are particularly vulnerable. We present an assessment of historical and projected changes in coastal flooding in 11 Pacific small-island nations, using tide gauge data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. We derive impact-, event- and percentile-based thresholds to calculate historical exceedance frequencies. Projections of future exceedance frequencies are then made using the recent suite of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) emission scenarios (Sixth Assessment Report). We find that exceedances of the percentile thresholds have increased in the last decade at all locations, with sites seeing exceedances in months where exceedances were previously rare or unseen in the sea level record. In the future, daily threshold exceedances occur after 50–115 cm of sea level rise, depending on location. Such levels are currently projected to be reached between 2080 and 2130 according to high emissions scenario SSP5–8.5. Low emissions scenario, SSP1–1.9, shows sea level rise resulting in 25–75 days of exceedances by 2050 for the 11 locations. This increased frequency of coastal flooding highlights the changing nature of coastal flood risk in the Pacific, with extreme weather and wave events being increasingly unnecessary for inundation to occur. Further, this work highlights how underlying increases in coastal flooding frequency pose a growing risk of exacerbating inundation associated with extreme weather or waves. Better flood monitoring and reporting will improve the accuracy of impact thresholds, strengthening the relevance of the results presented here for coastal emergency and planning managers.

The Physical Climate at Global Warming Thresholds as Seen in the U.K. Earth System Model

AbstractA key goal of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement is to keep global mean temperature change at 2°C and if possible under 1.5°C by the end of the century. To investigate the likelihood of achieving this target, we calculate the year of exceedance of a given global warming threshold (GWT) temperature across 32 CMIP6 models for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and radiative forcing combinations included in the Tier 1 ScenarioMIP simulations. Threshold exceedance year calculations reveal that a majority of CMIP6 models project warming beyond 2°C by the end of the century under every scenario or pathway apart from the lowest emission scenarios considered, SSP1–1.9 and SSP1–2.6, which is largely a function of the ScenarioMIP experiment design. The U.K. Earth System Model (UKESM1) ScenarioMIP projections are analyzed in detail to assess the regional and seasonal variations in climate at different warming levels. The warming signal emerging by midcentury is identified as significant and distinct from internal climate variability in all scenarios considered and includes warming summers in the Mediterranean, drying in the Amazon, and heavier Indian monsoons. Arctic sea ice depletion results in prominent amplification of warming and tropical warming patterns emerge that are distinct from interannual variability. Climate changes projected for a 2°C warmer world are in almost all cases exacerbated with further global warming (e.g., to a 4°C warmer world).

Anthropogenic aerosol and cryosphere changes drive Earth’s strong but transient clear-sky hemispheric albedo asymmetry

A striking feature of the Earth system is that the Northern and Southern Hemispheres reflect identical amounts of sunlight. This hemispheric albedo symmetry comprises two asymmetries: The Northern Hemisphere is more reflective in clear skies, whereas the Southern Hemisphere is cloudier. Here we show that the hemispheric reflection contrast from differences in continental coverage is offset by greater reflection from the Antarctic than the Arctic, allowing the net clear-sky asymmetry to be dominated by aerosol. Climate model simulations suggest that historical anthropogenic aerosol emissions drove a large increase in the clear-sky asymmetry that would reverse in future low-emission scenarios. High-emission scenarios also show decreasing asymmetry, instead driven by declines in Northern Hemisphere ice and snow cover. Strong clear-sky hemispheric albedo asymmetry is therefore a transient feature of Earth’s climate. If all-sky symmetry is maintained, compensating cloud changes would have uncertain but important implications for Earth’s energy balance and hydrological cycle.

Projected Changes in Terrestrial Vegetation and Carbon Fluxes under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Global Warming

The terrestrial ecosystem plays a vital role in regulating the exchange of carbon between land and atmosphere. This study investigates how terrestrial vegetation coverage and carbon fluxes change in a world stabilizing at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer than pre-industrial level. Model results derived from 20 Earth System Models (ESMs) under low, middle, and high greenhouse emission scenarios from CMIP5 and CMIP6 are employed to supply the projected results. Although the ESMs show a large spread of uncertainties, the ensemble means of global LAI are projected to increase by 0.04 ± 0.02 and 0.08 ± 0.04 in the 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming worlds, respectively. Vegetation density is projected to decrease only in the Brazilian Highlands due to the decrease of precipitation there. The high latitudes in Eurasia are projected to have stronger increase of LAI in the 2.0 °C warming world compared to that in 1.5 °C warming level caused by the increase of tree coverage. The largest zonal LAI is projected around 70° N while the largest zonal NPP is projected around 60° N and equator. The zonally inhomogeneous increase of vegetation density and productivity relates to the zonally inhomogeneous increase of temperature, which in turn could amplify the latitudinal gradient of temperature with additional warming. Most of the ESMs show uniform increases of global averaged NPP by 10.68 ± 8.60 and 15.42 ± 10.90 PgC year−1 under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming levels, respectively, except in some sparse vegetation areas. The ensemble averaged NEE is projected to increase by 3.80 ± 7.72 and 4.83 ± 10.13 PgC year−1 in the two warming worlds. The terrestrial ecosystem over most of the world could be a stronger carbon sink than at present. However, some dry areas in Amazon and Central Africa may convert to carbon sources in a world with additional 0.5 °C warming. The start of the growing season in the northern high latitudes is projected to advance by less than one month earlier. Five out of 10 CMIP6 ESMs, which use the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2) dataset or a prescribed potential vegetation distribution to constrain the future change of vegetation types, do not reduce the model uncertainties in projected LAI and terrestrial carbon fluxes. This may suggest the challenge in optimizing the carbon fluxes modeling in the future.

Future Climate Change Impact on the Nyabugogo Catchment Water Balance in Rwanda

Droughts and floods are common in tropical regions, including Rwanda, and are likely to be aggravated by climate change. Consequently, assessing the effects of climate change on hydrological systems has become critical. The goal of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change on the water balance in the Nyabugogo catchment by downscaling 10 global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method. To apply climate change signals under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (low and high emission) scenarios, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used. For the baseline scenario, the period 1950–2014 was employed, whereas the periods 2020–2050 and 2050–2100 were used for future scenario analysis. The streamflow was projected to decrease by 7.2 and 3.49% under SSP126 in the 2020–2050 and 2050–2100 periods, respectively; under SSP585, it showed a 3.26% increase in 2020–2050 and a 4.53% decrease in 2050–2100. The average annual surface runoff was projected to decrease by 11.66 (4.40)% under SSP126 in the 2020–2050 (2050–2100) period, while an increase of 3.25% in 2020–2050 and a decline of 5.42% in 2050–2100 were expected under SSP585. Climate change is expected to have an impact on the components of the hydrological cycle (such as streamflow and surface runoff). This situation may, therefore, lead to an increase in water stress, calling for the integrated management of available water resources in order to match the increasing water demand in the study area. This study’s findings could be useful for the establishment of adaptation plans to climate change, managing water resources, and water engineering.

Will the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China become warmer and wetter based on CMIP6 models?

Abstract Whether there is a transition underway, from a warm-dry climate to a warm-wet climate in Northwest China remains a controversial and scientifically significant issue. Will this trend continue in the future? Another hot issue is whether the climate in Northwest China will continue to be warm and humid over the next few decades. In this paper, eight CMIP6 models were employed to investigate temperature and precipitation changes under five principal Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (from 2015 to 2099) to project the future warming and humidification in Northwest China using the SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) method. The results revealed that (1) the simulated temperature and precipitation of eight CMIP6 models were consistent with that of observed data during 1961–2014, which showed an increase of approximately 28.2 mm, while simulated data revealed an increase of approximately 9.4 mm. The annual precipitation gradually decreased from Eastern Inner Mongolia and the Southern Northwest Mongolia region (&amp;gt;700 mm) to the Central Northwest Mongolia region (&amp;lt;100 mm) from 1961 to 2014; (2) the MME significantly overestimated the temperature and slightly underestimated the precipitation in Northwest Mongolia. The temperature difference between the simulated and observed data was approximately 0.4 °C. The observed data showed an increase of approximately 0.9 °C from 1961 to 2014, whereas the simulated data revealed an increase of approximately 0.7 °C; (3) in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the percentage of precipitation anomalies at 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 °C were 166.64, 190.58, 226.44, and 274.56%, respectively; thus, alleviating the drought situation while facilitating the warm-dry to warm-wet climate transition; (4) the water balance between rising temperatures and increased evapotranspiration resulting from increased precipitation suggested that not all sites will be wet in the future. There was still a drying trend in some areas, where drought was more severe under the high emissions scenario than the low emissions scenario.

Occurrence of crop pests and diseases has largely increased in China since 1970.

Crop pests and diseases (CPDs) are emerging threats to global food security, but trends in the occurrence of pests and diseases remain largely unknown due to the lack of observations for major crop producers. Here, on the basis of a unique historical dataset with more than 5,500 statistical records, we found an increased occurrence of CPDs in every province of China, with the national average rate of CPD occurrence increasing by a factor of four (from 53% to 218%) during 1970-2016. Historical climate change is responsible for more than one-fifth of the observed increment of CPD occurrence (22% ± 17%), ranging from 2% to 79% in different provinces. Among the climatic factors considered, warmer nighttime temperatures contribute most to the increasing occurrence of CPDs (11% ± 9%). Projections of future CPDs show that at the end of this century, climate change will lead to an increase in CPD occurrence by 243% ± 110% under a low-emissions scenario (SSP126) and 460% ± 213% under a high-emissions scenario (SSP585), with the magnitude largely dependent on the impacts of warmer nighttime temperatures and decreasing frost days. This observation-based evidence highlights the urgent need to accurately account for the increasing risk of CPDs in mitigating the impacts of climate change on food production.

Future Changes in δ13C of Dissolved Inorganic Carbon in the Ocean

AbstractEmissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion are reducing the ratio 13C/12C, δ13C, in atmospheric CO2 and in the carbon in the ocean and terrestrial biosphere that exchanges with the atmosphere on timescales of decades to centuries. Future changes to fossil fuel emissions vary across different scenarios and may cause decreases of more than 6% in atmospheric δ13CO2 between 1850 and 2100. The effects of these potential changes on the three‐dimensional distribution of δ13C in the ocean have not yet been investigated. Here, we use an ocean biogeochemical‐circulation model forced with a range of Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)‐based scenarios to simulate δ13C in ocean dissolved inorganic carbon from 1850 to 2100. In the future, vertical and horizontal δ13C gradients characteristic of the biological pump are reduced or reversed, relative to the preindustrial period, with the reversal occurring in higher emission scenarios. For the highest emission scenario, SSP5‐8.5, surface δ13C in the center of Pacific subtropical gyres falls from 2.2% in 1850 to −3.5% by 2100. In lower emission scenarios, δ13C in the surface ocean decreases but then rebounds. The relationship between anthropogenic carbon (Cant) and δ13C in the ocean shows a larger scatter in all scenarios, suggesting that uncertainties in δ13C‐based estimates of Cant may increase in the future. These simulations were run with fixed physical forcing and ocean circulation, providing a baseline of predicted δ13C. Further work is needed to investigate the impact of climate‐carbon cycle feedbacks on ocean δ13C changes.

Climate change and China's coastal zones and seas: Impacts, risks, and adaptation

This article provides an assessment of the changes in marine climate drivers (hazards), associated impacts, risks, and adaptation to the coastal China zones and seas since the mid 20th century. The results show that: ① Marine climate drivers,such as ocean warming,sea level rise, typhoon, storm surges and marine heat waves (MHWs),have increased significantly in strength,frequency and range over the past decades. ② Ocean warming has caused substantial changes in marine phenology,species composition,geographical distribution, and frequent occurrences of ecological disasters such as red tides,green tides,and macro-jellyfish outbreaks,while MHWs have induced degradation in tropical coral reefs and major losses in the marine aquaculture industry in the coastal China seas. ③ Sea level rise threatens the typical habitats of coastal wetlands such as mangrove and estuaries,and exacerbates coastal erosion,seawater intrusion and the impacts of typhoon, storm surges on the coastal flood disasters. ④ Human activities,such as large-scale reclamation,pollutant discharge, and overfishing, have increased the exposure and vulnerability of China's marine and coastal ecosystems, leading to the low-aging and miniaturization of fishery types,decline of offshore fishery resources, reduction of coastal wetland areas,and degradation of biodiversity and ecosystem stability. ⑤ Under different climate scenarios such as low and high greenhouse gases emission scenario (RCP 2.6 and 8.5), as the warming and sea level rise in the coastal China seas continue,extreme sea level (ESL) events will occur more frequently, e.g., by the end of this century, the current once per century ESL events will become annually or even annually less (RCP 8.5) in many coastal areas,such as at Lvsi and Xiamen tidal gauge stations; and the ESL events could pose serious risks on the coastal areas. Finally, the article further discusses the adaptation measures and related uncertain issues to address climate change in the coastal China zones and seas,and puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions in order to reduce its negative impacts on the sustainable development of human community.

Northern Hemisphere drought risk in a warming climate

Drought frequency and severity are projected to increase in the future, but the changes are expected to be unevenly distributed across the globe. Based on multi-model simulations under three different future emissions and shared socioeconomic pathways, we show that a significant drought intensification is expected in dry regions, whereby the severity depends on greenhouse gas emissions and development pathways. The drought hotspots are located in the sub-tropical regions where a moderate to extreme summer drought in today’s climate is expected to become a new normal by the end of the 21st century under the warmest scenario. On average, under the warmest future scenario, the drought occurrence rate is projected to be 100% higher than that of the low emission scenario. Further, for the regions which are currently less affected by long-lasting droughts, such as the European continent, climate models indicate a significant increase in drought occurrence probability under the warmest future scenario.

Statistical Modeling to Predict Climate Change Effects on Watershed Scale Evapotranspiration

Estimation of satellite-based remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) as consumptive use has been an integral part of agricultural water management. However, less attention has been given to future predictions of ET at watershed-scales especially since with a changing climate, there are additional challenges to planning and management of water resources. In this paper, we used nine years of total seasonal ET derived using a satellite-based remote sensing model, Mapping Evapotranspiration at Internalized Calibration (METRIC), to develop a Random Forest machine learning model to predict watershed-scale ET into the future. This statistical model used topographic and climate variables in agricultural areas of Lower Yakima, Washington and had a prediction accuracy of 88% for the region. This model was then used to predict ET into the future with changed climatic conditions under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios expected by 2050s. The model result shows increases in seasonal ET across some areas of the watershed while decreases in other areas. On average, growing seasonal ET across the watershed was estimated to increase by +5.69% under the low emission scenario (RCP4.5) and +6.95% under the high emission scenario (RCP8.5).

Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios

Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios

Crustose coralline algae display sensitivity to near future global ocean change scenarios

Abstract Most research investigating how ocean warming and acidification will impact marine species has focused on visually dominant species, such as kelps and corals, while ignoring visually cryptic species such as crustose coralline algae (CCA). CCA are important keystone species that provide settlement cues for invertebrate larvae and can be highly sensitive to global ocean change. However, few studies have assessed how CCA respond to low emission scenarios or conditions. In a laboratory experiment, we examined the responses of temperate CCA assemblages to combined warming and acidification projected under low, medium, and high emissions. Net calcification and net photosynthesis significantly declined in all emissions scenarios, while significant reductions in relative growth rates and increases in percentage bleaching were observed in the highest emission scenario. The negative responses of CCA to both low and medium emissions suggest that they may be adversely impacted by combined warming and acidification by 2030 if current emissions are sustained. This will have far reaching consequences for commercially important invertebrates that rely on them to induce settlement of larvae. These findings highlight the need to take rapid action to preserve these critical keystone species and the valuable services they provide.

Maize yield projections under different climate change scenarios in different districts of Punjab

The study aimed to find out possible changes in climatic data (temperature and rainfall) from the regional climate model viz. PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies)under different SRES scenarios (A1B, A2 and B2 scenario) by the mid (2021-2050) and end (2071-2100) century at six locations of Punjab representing different agroclimatic zones and to study their impact on maize yield using the crop growth simulation model.The results revealed that the different zones of the state are expected to bewarmer during the mid century and this trend has been projected to continue by the end of century because of increase in maximum and minimum temperature at all the locations.The CERES-Maize simulated significant decrease in duration and grain yield of maize crop under projected climate scenarios. The reduction in the crop duration and grain yield was found to be more under the A1B and A2 scenario (high emission scenario) followed by B2 scenario (low emission scenario)due to adverse effects on crop physiology.

Statistical climate model downscaling for impact projections in the Midwest United States

AbstractFor future climate projections to be useful they must be actionable at the local level. In this study, we develop daily temperature and precipitation climate scenarios suitable for use in projections of drought, energy use, water use, and crop production. We investigate the magnitude of future changes to air temperature and precipitation in the Midwest United States in response to three future climate change scenarios. Results are used to assess changes to incidence of precipitation extremes and human comfort (using heat index) associated with the anticipated climate changes in the region. We use self‐organizing maps and random forest based techniques to generate daily realizations of temperature and precipitation for 279 weather stations in a region centred on Illinois. We determine that the random forest model performs best for maximum and minimum temperatures, while the self‐organizing map performs best for precipitation. Using nine models from the Coupled Model Inter‐Comparison Project Phase 5, downscaled daily temperature and precipitation values are generated for low, moderate, and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for historical and future periods. Based on recent trends, we focus our results on the high emissions scenario, and show an average increase of 4.3°C in maximum daily air temperature across the region for the 2071–2100 period. Precipitation decreases by up to 15% in the southern half of the study region, with a similar percentage increase in the northern half of the region. The regional environmental changes result in an increase of 5.8° in average summer heat index, and increase of 48% in the number of days likely to produce extreme heat, and a decrease in the average value of the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index of 1.9 (indicating increased drought) across the region by 2100.

The fate of the City of Mutare's urban water supply as changing climate impacts on its source in the Pungwe sub‐catchment

AbstractSustaining a steady supply of water to urban communities is of importance in a period that is characterised by rapid urban population growth, a global pandemic, and a changing climate that threatens the availability of the resource from its sources. Water supply to the City of Mutare is from three sources, Small Bridge Dam, Odzani, and the Pungwe River. The Pungwe source provides better quality water resources equivalent to the combined quantity supplied by the other two. It becomes an important source for the city, but climate change threatens the availability of water resources in the southern African region. Thus, it is imperative to quantitatively assess the impacts of a changing climate on water resources to enable the development of sustainable management alternatives. Using two carbon emission scenarios Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, the study assesses the future availability of water resources from the Pungwe River to the City of Mutare using the Pitman hydrological model applied in an uncertainty framework. Available historical streamflow observations at gauging station F14 indicate a Q95 flow of about 2 Mm3/year. Projected future water resources at the end of the 21st century show a slight increase of up to 2.38% under the low carbon emission scenario (RCP4.5) and a decrease of up to 9.73%under the high carbon emission scenario (RCP8.5). These model‐generated results are useful to water managers to plan for catchment management strategies that would ensure continuous urban water supply, and the identification and development of possible future alternative water sources.