Low Emission Development Strategies Research Articles

Aligning NDCs with 1.5°C, Net Zero, and LT-LEDS

Since the Paris Agreement, subsequent COP decisions have increasingly encouraged Parties to align their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) with 1.5°C, building on earlier calls to align NDCs with long-term, low-emissions development strategies (LT-LEDS) “towards just transitions to net zero.” This research examines the characteristics that might constitute alignment of NDCs with national net-zero targets, the mitigation goals in LT-LEDS, and the collective 1.5°C goal, and summarizes the implications and recommendations for those designing NDCs and assessing their alignment.

Pathways towards net zero: Assessment of enablers and barriers in Nepal

Implementing mitigation measures to limit global temperatures to below 2 °C poses several challenges. Even though Nepal's global emission contribution remains minimal, the nation is committed to the net zero targets aligned with the Paris Agreement through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and Long-Term Low greenhouse gas Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS) by 2045, where the biggest emitters like India, China and European Union (EU) aims to achieve net zero by 2070, 2060 and 2050 respectively. In this context, detailed and concrete insights on context specific factors that inhibit or enable Nepal’s mitigation measures to robust climate action are still at its infancy. We assessed the enablers and barriers to implementing mitigation measures across the energy, transport and forestry sectors. For this, an adapted version of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC’s) Feasibility Assessment Framework is used, with data triangulated through an extensive literature review, as well as qualitative data collected through semi-structured interviews with sector-specific experts (n = 25), policymakers (n = 15) and industry managers (n = 10). Our results indicated that geophysical and topographical barriers are relatively less prominent. However, the institutional capacity and governance, and cross-sectional coordination inhibit the implementation of mitigation measures. Addressing institutional barriers, such as policy gaps, regulatory frameworks, capacity building and coordination challenges, is essential for unlocking the full potential of enablers and overcoming obstacles. This research serves as a valuable guide for countries like Nepal, helping them gain insights into the challenges they may encounter on their journey to net zero targets.

Synthesizing Mitigation Ambitions and Implementation of the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) Sector

The Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector is critical in achieving the goal of limiting global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, a knowledge gap remains regarding whether current ambitions can achieve the temperature targets. This study established a 4-step analytical framework to evaluate the mitigation targets, pledged ambitions, and implementation within the AFOLU sector based on the Nationally Determined Contributions and Long-term Low Emissions Development Strategies of the typical 80 countries. The results indicated that 58 countries set quantitative mitigation targets, including emission and activity targets. Twenty-six countries established emission targets for 2030, representing a median emission reduction ambition of 25.5%. AFOLU’s emissions are expected to be reduced by 1,305.26 MtCO 2 -eq year −1 , approximately 16% of total emissions, if unconditional emission targets are met, and 2,230.20 MtCO 2 -eq year −1 , approximately 27% of total emissions, if conditional emission targets are met. Compared to emission targets, activity targets lead to higher ambitions, with a 2.52 GtCO 2 -eq year −1 economic potential, approximately 30% of total emissions, and a 4.41 GtCO 2 -eq year −1 technical potential, approximately 53% of total emissions. The identified finance needs are at least 842.98 billion USD by 2030, far exceeding current investment levels, yet still falls short of achieving the temperature targets. Currently, 51 of the 58 countries have proposed policy instruments to help realize their targets, with regulatory and cognitive instruments playing fundamental roles. However, ambiguous, incoherent, and inadequate policy information leads to uncertainties regarding the feasibility and effectiveness of mitigation ambitions and their implementation.

Evaluating long-term low emission development strategies and implications for the remaining global carbon budget

ABSTRACT The imperative to halt global warming extends beyond human boundaries, intertwining with the urgent need to achieve net-zero emissions. To this end, the Paris Agreement (PA) states that all Parties should strive to formulate their Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS). This article comprehensively reviews the LT-LEDS submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by 53 Parties (representing 75% of global emissions) as of September 23rd, 2022. First, it conducts an analysis of the quality and completeness of the LT-LEDS. The findings of this analysis highlight the need for improvement in the reported information, particularly to improve the clarity of the information presented and the monitoring of progress towards the objective of each LT-LEDS. Furthermore, the study confirms the noticeable absence of reference to the principles of equity, and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in the light of different national circumstances. Yet these principles should frame climate action within the PA. Second, this article estimates the carbon budget to be utilized by the Parties that have integrated net-zero emission (NZE) targets within their LT-LEDS. The analysis reveals that this group of Parties (i.e. those reporting on LT-LEDS and those with NZE targets), currently encompasses 37% of the global population and is responsible for 62% of global emissions. If these NZE targets are met, the group is projected to consume a total of 431 GtCO2. This value notably exceeds the threshold of 400 GtCO2, exceeding the remaining global carbon budget estimated by the IPCC to be compatible with a 67% likelihood to achieve a temperature increase objective of 1.5°C.

From NDC to national long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies compatible with a 2 °C target

From NDC to national long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies compatible with a 2 °C target

Toward a Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy: The Case of Energy Transition in Qatar.

The objective of this paper is to present a comprehensive perspective on the development of a long-term low-emission development strategy for Qatar, in line with the Paris Agreement. The methodology used in this paper takes a holistic approach by analyzing national strategies, structures, and mitigation measures from other countries, and synthesizing these with Qatar's unique context in terms of its economy, energy production, and consumption, as well as its energy-related emission profile and characteristics. The findings of this paper identify key considerations and elements that policymakers would need to take into account when developing a long-term low-emission vision for Qatar, with a particular emphasis on its energy sector. The policy implications of this study are significant for policymakers in Qatar, as well as for other countries facing similar challenges in their transition to a sustainable future. This paper contributes to the discourse on energy transition in Qatar and provides insights that can inform the development of potential routes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Qatar's energy system. It serves as a foundation for further research and analysis and can contribute to the development of more effective and sustainable policies and strategies for low-emission development in Qatar andbeyond.

On the path to net-zero: Establishing a multi-level system to support the complex endeavor of reaching national carbon neutrality

Limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C, as agreed in the 2015 Paris Agreement, requires global carbon neutrality by mid-century at the latest. The corresponding carbon budget is decreasing steadily and significantly. To phase out carbon emissions in line with the specified temperature target, countries are formulating their mitigation efforts in their long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS). However, there are no standardized specifications for preparing these strategies, which is why the reports published to date differ widely in terms of structure and scope. To consider the multiple facets of reaching net-zero from a systemic perspective as comprehensively as possible, the authors propose the Net-Zero-2050 System: A novel, transferrable systems approach that supports the development of national endeavors toward carbon neutrality. The Net-Zero-2050 System is defined by three interconnected components: The Carbon-Emission-Based System, the surrounding Framing System and a set of system boundaries. For both systems levels, IPCC approaches were used as a basis and were then adjusted and supplemented by Net-Zero-2050. We suggest applying the Net-Zero-2050 System—beyond the project environment—in carbon emission based contexts at different levels. Especially at the national level, this would improve the comparability of the different national strategies to achieve carbon neutrality.

Long-term national climate strategies bet on forests and soils to reach net-zero

The deployment of carbon dioxide removal is essential to reach global and national net-zero emissions targets, but little attention has been paid to its practical deployment by countries. Here, we analyse how carbon dioxide removal methods are integrated into 41 of the 50 Long-term Low Emission Development Strategies submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), before 2022. We show that enhancing forest and soil carbon sinks are the most advocated strategies but are only explicitly quantified in 12. Residual emissions by 2050 are only quantified in 20 strategies and most of them use forests to achieve national net-zero targets. Strategies that quantify both residual emissions and carbon dioxide removal identify national constraints, such as wildfire risks to forests and limited geological CO2 storage capacity. These strategies also highlight the need for international cooperation. Taken together, we suggest that the UNFCCC should urgently strengthen its reporting requirements on long-term national climate strategies.

탄소중립을 위한 공공건축물 그린리모델링 에너지 절감 효과 분석 : 국공립 어린이집, 보건소, 공공의료시설을 중심으로

Purpose: As the need for environmental protection was further emphasized after the outbreak of COVID-19, Korea submitted the “2050 Long-term low greenhouse gas Emission Development Strategies” and the “2030 Nationally Determined Contribution” to the UN in October 2021. Accordingly, the greenhouse gas reduction target in the building sector has also been greatly raised, and among them, green remodeling of existing buildings is mainly focused on building energy along with zero energy. To this end, the government adopted the green remodeling project for public buildings as the key project of building NetZero and Korea NewDeal. This is a green remodeling of existing public buildings with a focus on public buildings mainly used by children and the elderly who are vulnerable to infectious diseases. Method: This study analyzes the construction method applied to reduce carbon emissions through energy design consulting, focusing on 1,065 buildings that are the target of the support project. And, the energy saving effect of the design consulting is analyzed, and the development direction of the public building green remodeling project is suggested through this analysis. Results: As a result of regional average energy saving rate analysis through green remodeling, the overall average energy saving rate was analyzed to be 36.8%. By use, the health center showed the highest energy saving rate. In the future, green remodeling of public buildings needs to secure a substantial business plan and quality through business planning and energy design that reflects the characteristics of the building, and it is necessary to expand support in consideration of the urgency and popularity of the project.

Possible Role of NPP in Long Term Low Carbon Development Strategy – Case Study Croatia

The term low – emission development strategies (LEDS) was developed on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2008. LEDS is used to describe a longterm national economic development plans or strategies that include low emissions and economic growth resistant to climate change. The concept of Low Carbon Development Strategies (LCDS) has been introduced by the Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC as a common but differentiated approach to meet the overall emissions reduction objectives: “All countries shall prepare Low Emission Development Strategies …nationally-driven and represent[ing] the aims and objectives of individual Parties in accordance with national circumstances and capacities” (Cancun Agreement). Low Carbon Development Strategies (LCDS) in this way become an overarching framework to design and achieve Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) reflecting the Common but Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) of all countries. For Long-Term National Strategy and Action Plan for Low-Carbon Development the main objective of this programme is the development of a long-term national strategy and action plan for low-carbon development to enable country to fulfil its commitment to carbon obligations. Low-carbon development strategy will become the fundamental for the development of the energy sector with low rate of carbon, but also for the entire economy. European Union is the leader in the effort to reduce emissions especially in the energy sector – sector with the highest rate of emission. With the goal of reducing emissions, necessary measures are accentuated for energy in the EU Countries, as well as in Croatia. The possibilities for realization of Croatian low-carbon development and particularly possible role and barriers for Nuclear power plants for Low carbon emissions development in the electricity sector until 2050 will be presented in this paper.

Framework for Assessing the Feasibility of Carbon Dioxide Removal Options Within the National Context of Germany

Removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere will be required over the next decades to achieve the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C aiming at not exceeding 1.5°C. Technological and ecosystem-based options are considered for generating negative emissions through carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and several nations have already included these in their Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategies. However, strategies for development, implementation, and upscaling of CDR options often remain vague. Considering the scale at which CDR deployment is envisioned in emission pathways for limiting global warming to 1.5°C, significant environmental, social, and institutional implications are to be expected and need to be included in national feasibility assessments of CDR options. Following a multi-disciplinary and comprehensive approach, we created a framework that considers the environmental, technological, economic, social, institutional, and systemic implications of upscaling CDR options. We propose the framework as a tool to help guide decision-relevant feasibility assessments of CDR options, as well as identify challenges and opportunities within the national context. As such, the framework can serve as a means to inform and support decision makers and stakeholders in the iterative science-policy process of determining the role of CDR options in national strategies of achieving net-zero carbon emissions.

Life cycle environmental impact assessment of Taean coal power plant with CO2 capture module

To prevent the generation of pollutants and secondary pollutants owing to the adoption of novel technologies or processes including carbon capture and storage (CCS), it is necessary to characterize the environmental impact more precisely based on actual data. This study established an analysis model utilizing life cycle assessment (LCA) data at the secondary data level, based on the actual data of the Taean coal power plant in the Republic of Korea. The collected data were statistically analyzed to verify the changes in environmental impact according to operation factor, and appropriate life cycle inventories were structured to model the Taean coal power plant. From the created life cycle inventories, the modeled Taean coal power plant was firstly evaluated based on its environmental impacts. It was found that the global warming potential could be reduced by 78%, from 1.04 to 0.23 kgCO2/kWh by applying the CO2 capture module to the Taean model. It was therefore confirmed that applying the CO2 capture facility from a point emission source, such as a thermal power plant, is an effective solution to achieve targeted greenhouse gas reduction from the 2050 Low Emission Development strategy. Also, it was found that upon assessing environmental impact for application of the CO2 capture module to the coal power plant, integrating both the time horizon and country characterization factor should be considered. With the help of the precise LCA methodology, it was confirmed that application of air pollutant control and CO2 capture modules are effective solution to achieve greenhouse gas reduction with environmental regulation standards.

The economic impact of a deep decarbonisation pathway for China: a hybrid model analysis through bottom-up and top-down linking

The development of mid-century low-emission development strategies is critical to guiding national actions on long-term mitigation. One of the key concerns in developing mitigation strategies is the cost of the low-carbon transition. In this study, we estimate the macroeconomic cost of a deep decarbonisation pathway for China, by integrating an energy-systems optimisation model with an economic model through hard linking. Our results indicate that deep decarbonisation increases the energy expenses of Chinese households in the mid-run due to the higher cost of electricity. However, firms will benefit from moderate decarbonisation as a result of a reduction in coal and oil consumption. As a result, energy-efficiency improvements lead to a reduction in firms’ total energy costs, partially compensating the crowding-out effect of low-carbon investments on general productive capital. Our mitigation scenario has therefore a small macroeconomic cost compared to business as usual, equal to a lag in the growth of less than one year in 2050.

The Paradox of the New Great Game: Do Europe and China Need More Pipelines from Eurasia?

ABSTRACT Transition to low-carbon energy is on the political agenda of most developed states, supported by investment in green technologies and legislative initiatives. The EU is actively elaborating the 2050 climate and energy policy framework and has adopted the Long-Term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy to make the EU ‘climate-neutral’ by 2050. Meanwhile, China’s President Xi Jinping announced China’s goal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. These strategic goals are in line with China’s and the EU’s international commitment to ‘global climate action’ under the 2016 Paris Accords. These plans go in stark contrast with rising investment in pipeline projects in Central Asia and the South Caucasus that compete with Russia’s expanding transit capacities and with the dramatic development of LNG markets in Europe and Asia. The New Great Game seems to have been turning 180°—from rivalry among consumers over upstream assets and transportation routes in Central Asia and the South Caucasus towards competition between producers over sales markets in Europe and China, although the recent and sudden global gas supply crisis suggests a more complicated picture. So, what do the net-zero strategies mean for Eurasia? This article attempts to answer this question by exploring the prospects for gas pipeline expansion amid the carbon neutrality pledges of the major net consumers.

COP26 and beyond: long-term climate strategies are key to safeguard health and equity

Greenhouse gas emission reductions are a lifeline for humanity. In the lead up to the COP26 UN Climate Conference, governments worldwide were expected to submit strengthened emission reduction targets for the year 2030 (in the form of nationally determined contributions; NDCs), as well as mid-century, long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (long-term strategies; LTSs). However, as of one week before the conference, countries responsible for just 55% and 32% of global greenhouse gas emissions had submitted NDCs and LTSs, respectively.

Assessment of carbon reduction costs in renewable energy technologies for heat generation in Thailand

Thailand has increased continuously of renewable energy because of the Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP) is targeted at increasing renewable energy use in all sectors. In addition to reducing the use of fossil fuels and energy imports from abroad, it also affects the greenhouse gases (GHG) emission reduction that is a major cause of climate change. In 2019, thermal energy consumption from renewable energy was 60.3% of total final renewable energy consumption. This study aims to assess the marginal abatement costs (MAC) in Thailand renewable energy heat generation which is consisting of (i) the type of natural renewable: solar energy, and (ii) the type of bio-renewable: biomass, biogas, and waste during 2014 to 2018. In 2018, the MAC results range from −18,757.67 to 3,718.38 THB/tCO 2eq. Marginal abatement costs (MAC) are the important tools for prioritizing in GHG reduction strategy which represents the importance and necessity of heat generation from renewable energy that affects to the GHG reduction of the country by expression the form of marginal abatement cost curves (MAC Curve). In addition, it is also a climate change economics indicator that is essential for the Long-term Low Greenhouse Gas Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) of Thailand to affect the operations that will lead to sustainable development in society, economy, and environment to achieve Net-zero targets.

Strategies and Effects of LEDS (Low Emission Development Strategy) in Fortaleza, Brazil

When it comes to climate change, the built environment, together with transport, and waste and water management play a significant role as Greenhouse Gases (GHG) emitting sectors, reflecting the strong need to address such issues by local governments. A notable action that has been taken in this regard is the Urban Low Emission Development Strategies (Urban LEDS), which consists of a project implemented by the UN-Habitat and the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI) that selected eight model cities and twenty-one satellite cities around the world and aims to support integrated and ambitious climate action, encouraging low-carbon efforts in emerging economies through the collaboration among them. In addition, eight European cities also participated in the project in its first phase, contributing with their expertise and experience with climate change mitigation. Since 2012, the city of Fortaleza in Brazil is a model city of the Urban LEDS project and it has sustainably integrated and developed many projects, making it a more resilient city, stimulating its economic growth and improving its quality of life. This paper aims to present the milestones that Fortaleza has already met within Urban LEDS and its main priorities in the next years, identifying best practices in three European cities (Copenhagen, Zagreb and Hannover) that could also be implemented in its geographical, social and cultural context, as well as indicate lessons that other cities can learn from Fortaleza.

Cancel (Out) Emissions? The Envisaged Role of Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies in Long-Term National Climate Strategies

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) increasingly features in climate scenarios that hold global warming well below 2°C by 2100. Given the continuous gap between climate mitigation pledges and the emission pathways that are aligned with achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement, we would expect countries to promote CDR in their long-term planning to achieve mid-century targets. Yet, countries may not consider it their responsibility to contribute to the global response to climate change using CDR. Thus, a study of the respective country's long-term climate plans is both timely and vital. Such a study could reveal the pledged collective ambition, the contribution of CDR to the pledged ambition, and how the envisaged role of CDR is described by the different countries. This paper explores the long-term low emission development strategies (LT-LEDS) of countries in order to map the role of CDR in addressing climate change. We also supplement our examination of strategies with the opinions of climate experts. Based on an inductive coding of the material and a literature review, the analytical focus of the analysis includes CDR targets and planning, types of CDR, barriers and opportunities to CDR implementation, as well as international cooperation. Our study of 25 national LT-LEDS submitted to the UN or to the EU, as well as 23 interviews with climate experts, shows that national plans for CDR vary substantially across countries and are generally lacking in detail. The findings also demonstrate that CDR is perceived to be necessary and desirable for achieving mid-century climate goals, but also reveal variation in the intended role of CDR. We use an interpretive approach to outline three possible visions of CDR in climate action: as a panacea, as a necessary fallback and as a chimera. We conclude by discussing what our findings of the envisaged roles of CDR in addressing climate change mean for climate governance. This research thereby contributes to the literature on governing CDR with new comprehensive insights into the long-term climate strategies of countries.

파리협정 목표에 따른 한국의 온실가스 배출허용량과 총량제한 배출경로 연구

Under the Paris Agreement, which is a bottom-up system, all parties voluntarily establish and implement greenhouse gas reduction goals and strategies such as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and Long-term Low greenhouse gas Emission Development Strategies (LEDS). However, a significant gap is projected between the global total emissions from these bottom-up reduction targets and the global carbon budget in agreeance with the Paris Agreement targets. This study calculates Korea

Strategy involving stakeholders and government to contribute and to implement the ILEDSA

A low emission development strategy (LEDS) is designed to develop action programs and policies to place a country on a development pathway that is resilient to climate change while working towards measurable long-term reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Aceh’s efforts to protect forests have shown a steady rate of reduction in deforestation from 2013-2017. However, the threat still exists, so that an integrated strategy with other sectors is needed to ensure that the goals of tackling climate change and reducing deforestation can be achieved. The data sources for this study are primary and secondary in nature and were carried out by following the basic structure of the ‘SWOT’ analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats). Some of the strategies produced in this study to involve stakeholders and government are: 1) District, Provincial and National level governments implement policies and regulations that are synergistic between institutions; 2) Traders, Exporters / Cooperatives and Collectors monitor the performance of certified coffee and overcome market failures; 3) The Gayo Coffee Protection Society (MPKG), Universities and Research Institutions apply Geographical Indications in every export product and support research funds; and 4) Coffee farmers / planters undertake technological interventions, develop market-based strategies, and develop risk management schemes.