Long-term Stable Relationship Research Articles

The Impact of Public Expenditure on Inflation: An ARDL Approach

The aim of this study is to investigate and evaluate the impact of public spending on inflation in Algeria from 1973 to 2022. The data used are obtained from the official website of world Bank (WDI) and the Finance Ministry of Algeria. This study is conducted by applying the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL)-(bounds testing approach) using eviews13 software. The time series of the data were subjected to statistical tests by applying the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. The cointegration tests were also applied for a common relationship and the Model Stability: The Bounds Test for confirming the existence of a stable long-term relationship, the Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation LM test to test the absence of serial correlation, Test Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey to test the Heteroskedasticity; and the CUSUM and CUSUM Squares test for the stability of the model as well as the estimation of the model’s short- and long-term parameters. The results obtained confirm the hypothesis posed in the introduction on the existence of a cointegration relationship between public expenditure and inflation the indicate that there exists a cointegration relationship between public expenditure and inflation, such that a 1% increase in public spending leads to a 0.23% rise in the inflation rate. It is important to mention that this percentage is relatively low compared to the short term, having reached 2%. As regards the other control variables, we found a positive and statistically significant correlation between the inflation rate and the percentage of broad money to GDP and the percentage of imports to GDP. However, we found an inverse relationship between the inflation rate and GDP per capita at constant 2015 prices, which serves as a measure of inverse economic growth. Based on these results, we can suggest Moving forward, policymakers in Algeria must prioritize measures aimed at curbing inflation while ensuring sustainable economic growth. This may involve reassessing public spending priorities, implementing effective monetary policies, and enhancing fiscal discipline. Furthermore, fostering economic diversification and promoting investment in sectors with high growth potential can contribute to reducing reliance on public expenditure as a driver of inflation.

WITHDRAWN: FCDNet: Frequency-guided complementary dependency modeling for multivariate time-series forecasting

Multivariate time-series (MTS) forecasting is a challenging task in many real-world non-stationary dynamic scenarios. In addition to intra-series temporal signals, the inter-series dependency also plays a crucial role in shaping future trends. How to enable the model’s awareness of dependency information has raised substantial research attention. Previous approaches have either presupposed dependency constraints based on domain knowledge or imposed them using real-time feature similarity. However, MTS data often exhibit both enduring long-term stable relationships and transient short-term interactions, which mutually influence their evolving states. It is necessary to recognize and incorporate the complementary dependencies for more accurate MTS forecasting. The frequency information in time series reflects the evolutionary rules behind complex temporal dynamics, and different frequency components can be used to well construct interactive dependency structures with varying states between variables. To this end, we propose FCDNet, a concise yet effective complementary dependency modeling framework for multivariate time-series forecasting. Specifically, FCDNet overcomes the above limitations by applying two lightweight dependency constructors to help extract stable static and dynamic varying dependency information adaptively from long short-term multi-level frequency patterns. With the growth of input variables, the number of trainable parameters in FCDNet only increases linearly, which is conducive to the model’s scalability and avoids over-fitting. Additionally, adopting a frequency-based perspective can effectively mitigate the influence of noise within MTS data, which helps capture more genuine dependencies. The experimental results on six real-world datasets from multiple fields show that FCDNet significantly exceeds strong baselines, with an average improvement of 6.82% on MAE, 4.98% on RMSE, and 4.91% on MAPE. In addition, the ability of FCDNet to jointly learn high-quality static and dynamic graph structures is demonstrated empirically. Our source codes are publicly available at https://github.com/onceCWJ/FCDNet.

Empirical analysis of the development relationship between Shanghai shipping industry and primary industry based on VAR model

This study employs the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to conduct an in-depth empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between Shanghai’s shipping industry and the development of the primary sector from 2002 to 2022. The findings reveal that, as a globally significant maritime hub, the development of Shanghai’s shipping industry has a notable positive impact on the growth of the primary sector, particularly in agriculture and fisheries. Through ADF unit root tests, cointegration tests, and Granger causality tests, a stable long-term relationship was identified between shipping industry indicators, such as container throughput and total waterborne cargo transport volume, and the output value of the primary sector. Impulse response analysis and variance decomposition further reveal the critical roles and mechanisms through which the shipping industry influences the development of the primary sector. Based on these insights, the paper proposes policy recommendations aimed at strengthening the integrated development of shipping and the primary sector, promoting technological innovation in the shipping industry, optimizing the policy environment, enhancing environmental protection measures, and bolstering international cooperation. These strategies are intended to foster synergistic development between the two sectors and drive sustainable economic growth.

Research of blockchain-embedded agricultural quality credit regulation influencing factors

PurposeThe credit of agricultural product quality and safety reflects the ability of the main actors involved in the supply chain to provide reliable agricultural products to consumers. To fundamentally solve the problem of agricultural product quality and safety, it is worth studying how to make the credit awareness and integrity self-discipline of the supply chain agriculture-related subjects strengthened and the role and value of credit supervision given full play. Starting from the application of blockchain in the agricultural product supply chain, this paper aims to investigate the main factors affecting the credit regulation of agricultural product quality.Design/methodology/approachUsing the DEMATEL-ISM (decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory–interpretative structural modeling) method, we analyze the credit influencing factors of agricultural quality and safety empowered by blockchain technology, find the causal relationship between the crucial influencing factors and deeply explore the hierarchical transmission relationship between the influencing factors. Then, the path analysis in structural equation modeling is utilized to verify and measure the significance and effect value of the transmission relationship among the crucial influencing factors of credit regulation.FindingsThe results show that the quality and safety credit regulation of agricultural products is influenced by a combination of direct and deep influencing factors. Long-term stable cooperative relationship, Quality and safety credit evaluation, Supply chain risk control ability, Quality and safety testing, Constraints of the smart contract are the main influence path of blockchain embedded in agricultural product supply chain quality and safety credit supervision.Originality/valueCredit supervision is an important means to improve the ability and level of social governance and standardize the market order. From the perspective of blockchain embedded in the agricultural supply chain, the regulatory body is transformed from the product body to the supply chain body. Take the credit supervision of supply chain subjects as the basis of agricultural product quality supervision. With the help of blockchain technology to improve the effectiveness of agricultural product quality and safety credit supervision, credit supervision is used to constrain and incentivize the behavior of agricultural subjects.

Quantitative Modeling of Financial Contagion: Unraveling Market Dynamics and Bubble Detection Mechanisms

This study explored the complex interplay and potential risk of financial contagion across major financial indices, focusing on the Bucharest Exchange Trading Investment Funds Index (BET-FI), along with global indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite (IXIC), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Our analysis covered an extensive period from 2012 to 2023, with a particular emphasis on Romania’s financial market. We employed Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling to examine the interrelations among these indices, treating the BET-FI index as our primary variable. Our research also integrated Exponential Curve Fitting (EXCF) and Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) models to identify and scrutinize potential price bubbles in these indices. We analyzed moments of high volatility and deviations from typical market trends, influenced by diverse factors like government policies, presidential elections, tech sector performance, the COVID-19 pandemic, and geopolitical tensions, specifically the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The ARDL model revealed a stable long-term relationship among the variables, indicating their interconnectedness. Our study also highlights the significance of short-term market shifts leading to long-term equilibrium, as shown in the Error Correction Model (ECM). This suggests the existence of contagion effects, where small, short-term incidents can trigger long-term, domino-like impacts on the financial markets. Furthermore, our variance decomposition examined the evolving contributions of different factors over time, shedding light on their changing interactions and impact. The Cholesky factors demonstrated the interdependence between indices, essential for understanding financial contagion effects. Our research thus uncovered the nuanced dynamics of financial contagion, offering insights into market variations, the effectiveness of our models, and strategies for detecting financial bubbles. This study contributes valuable knowledge to the academic field and offers practical insights for investors in turbulent financial environments.

The effects of policy rate announcements on the exchange rates

Purpose- Exchange rate is the value of a country's national currency against foreign national currencies. In this context, the exchange rate is considered an important macroeconomic indicator in evaluating the country's economy. The failure to control the exchange rate may damage economy significantly. It is possible to understand this from the 2001 crisis in Turkey, known as 'Black Wednesday', and the foreign exchange crisis that started in Thailand in 1997 and affected many East Asian countries. Interest rate is one of the critical determinants affecting the exchange rates. Therefore, changes in interest rates are expected to affect the level of exchange rates. When there is an increase in interest rates, foreign capital flow is expected for that particular country. Hence, a decrease in exchange rates is expected for the excess capital flows. This study aims to analyze the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates, considering the last 10 announcements of the interest policy of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkiye. These announcements are between January 19, 2023 and October 26, 2023. The study used the TL/USD exchange rates and 10-year government bond interest rates to measure the relationship in between these two variables. Methodology-The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between the dollar exchange rate and government bond interest rates for Turkiye. For this purpose, data is collected for the days when the last 10 policy rates published by the CBRT were announced. Data is obtained investing.com. Vector Autoregression (VAR) is used to measure the relationship in between two variables. The VAR system is based on empirical regularities embedded in the data. The VAR model may be viewed as a system of reduced form equations in which each of the endogenous variables is regressed on its own lagged values and the lagged values of all other variables in the system. Vector Autoregressive models are widely used in time series research to examine the dynamic relationships exist in between variables that interact with one another. In addition, VAR models are viable forecasting tools used often by macroeconomic or policy-making institutions. . In this study first, the stationary levels of the variables are determined by using Unit Root Test. Second, pre-tests of autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and normality are conducted for the validity of the VAR model. Third, the short-term relationship between variables is tested by using VAR Granger Causality Test. Fourth, VAR analysis is utilized by applying Impulse-Response Analysis and Variance Decomposition Analysis . And finally, the long-term relationship between variables is tested by using Johansen Cointegration Test. Vector Autoregressionmodel is employed in this study. Findings- According to the results of Granger Causality test, government bond interest rates strongly affect the changes of exchange rate. However, there is no causality from exhange rates to interest rates. Therefore, the changes of interest rates are the main determinants of the changes of exchange rates in this short period. The results of Impulse-Response Test show that an unexpected shock (an unexpected increase) in government bond interest rates affects the exchange rates and increases it significantly. More, an unexpected increase in the exchange rates causes the interest rates on government bond to increase. The results of the variance decomposition test show that 50% of the change in the variance of the exchange rates in the first period is explained by changes in bond interest while 30% of the change in the variance of bond interest rates is explained by the changes in exchange rates. The results of Johansen cointegration test support that there is a stable long-term relationship between dollar exchange rates and government bond interest rates. Conclusion-This study focuses on the relationship between government bond interest rates and the dollar exchange rates in Turkiye for the last 10 policy interest rates announcements by Cenral Bank of Turkiye. In summary, the changes in interest rates on bonds affect the changes in exchange rates more. Data for the days that the CBRT issued the last ten policy rates is gathered for this purpose. The association between two variables is measured using Vector Autoregression (VAR). According to overall results, the changes in interest rates on bonds affect the changes in exchange rates more. Keywords: Policy rate, exchange rate, interest rate, Turkiye, Granger Causality, VAR model JEL Codes: E40, E50, C10, C58

Long-term relationships of beef and dairy cattle and greenhouse gas emissions: Application of co-integrated panel models for Latin America

The cattle sector plays a pivotal role in the economies of numerous Latin American and Caribbean countries. However, it also exerts a significant impact on environmental degradation, including substantial contributions to greenhouse gas emissions (accounting for 23.5 % of global livestock emissions) and deforestation (70 % attributed to livestock in South America). This article aims to investigate the complex, long-term, and short-term relationships between population growth, pastureland expansion, deforestation, and the cattle sector in 15 countries across the region, focusing on their effects on greenhouse gas emissions as well as beef and dairy production. Utilizing data from FAOSTAT spanning the period from 1990 to 2019, a cointegrated panel model was developed using the Pooled Mean Group technique, resulting in the estimation of six models. The aggregate-level results for the region reveal the presence of relatively stable long-term relationships. This implies that over time, the influence of population growth, pastureland expansion, and deforestation on greenhouse gas emissions from cattle production tends to diminish in significance. This long-term behavior may be particularly pronounced in countries with more developed cattle sectors, where efforts to mitigate the environmental impacts of cattle production, such as promoting improved forage technologies, silvo-pastoral systems, grazing management practices, and the implementation of policies, regulatory frameworks, and incentives, have gained traction. These progressive countries can serve as regional benchmarks, and the lessons they have learned hold valuable insights for the sustainable intensification of cattle production in countries with less-developed cattle sectors.

A pipeline between producer and consumer prices in Ghana: A Policy Issue

<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-top: 12pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">As prices have grown at their fastest pace in recent times, inflation has become a key concern for the macro-policy environment. In many jurisdictions, consumer prices have typically formed the basis for price stability policies. Notwithstanding, producer prices remain an important channel and must be closely watched. We utilise data on Ghana and investigate the causal links between consumer and producer inflation and assess the necessity to include producer inflation target in the monetary policy rule. Our VECM and Granger causality analyses show that consumer and producer prices exhibit very stable long-term relationship and short-term gaps between the two tend to normalise over time. The relationship between consumer and producer prices has not been a one-sided lag structure, even though producer prices lead more than lag consumer prices. We conclude that Bank of Ghana’s monetary policy design that does not distinguish between consumer and producer inflation is less problematic at the moment.</span></p>

Compliance relationship analysis between environmental governance attention and environmental quality in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region

This study analyzes the changes and allocation characteristics of environmental governance attention in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region based on the government work report from 2002 to 2020 and explores the compliance relationship between environmental governance attention and environmental quality. The results show that the allocation of local government environmental governance attention shows high consistency with that of the central government, and the overall environmental governance attention shows a fluctuating upward trend. There is a long-term stable co-integrated relationship between environmental governance attention and environmental quality in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, as well as a two-way Granger causality relationship in the short term. The non-linear influence of environmental governance attention on the environmental quality in the Beijing–Hebei–Tianjin region can be described using the LSTR2 model. During 2004–2016, environmental governance attention often had non-linear effects on the environmental quality. Since 2016, there has been a stable linear relationship between environmental governance attention and environmental quality. Finally, some policy suggestions on improving the local performance evaluation system and establishing a collaborative environment system for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region have been put forward for the government.

The impact of marine industrial structure rationalization on marine economic growth

As an important part of the world economy today, the marine economy is of great significance for promoting economic growth and sustainable development. To better promote the development of marine economy, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test was first used to test the stationarity of marine economy related variables to ensure the reliability of the model. Then, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is used to analyze the long-term stable relationship and short-term dynamic adjustment relationship between the marine industrial structure rationalization and the marine economic growth. These results reveal the mechanism of the influence of the rationalization of marine industrial structure on the growth of marine economy. It is found that among the eastern coastal provinces and cities, the rationalization level of marine industrial structure in Shanghai is up to 0.163 points, which is higher than other cities. The main reasons are the low specialization index of marine labor force, the comprehensive utilization amount of industrial waste in 10,000 yuan of gross marine product, the low environmental protection index, and the large gap between the benefits of each index. In addition, the study also found that the Granger causality test values of the delayed combination of variables Gross Ocean Product (GOP), ts, GOP, and ts were 5.531, 14.672, and 15.069, respectively. Finally, it is found that the upgrading of marine industrial structure and the output of marine economy will correct the deviation of industry rationalization below the equilibrium value in the short term at a rate of 0.1675. According to the above results, the study puts forward the following suggestions. First, it needs to strengthen the planning and layout of the marine industry, rationally guide the allocation of resources and industrial development. Second, it needs to increase support for scientific and technological innovation, and promote technological progress and industrial upgrading. The third is to strengthen the government's policy support and supervision to provide a stable policy environment and market environment for industrial development. The innovation lies in the systematic study of the relationship between the rationalization of marine industrial structure and the growth of marine economy.

The Impact of the Age Structure of the Population and the Price of Housing on the Savings of the Population: An Empirical Study from China

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between housing prices, population age structure and savings rate by analyzing the variables of housing prices, population age structure and savings rate, which is of great theoretical and practical significance for the formulation of policies to alleviate the aging population and childlessness in China. Theoretical framework: Most of the studies on the relationship among the consumer price of commercial housing, the old-age dependency ratio, the child dependency ratio, and the savings rate of the residents in China are based on the GMM model, while this study constructs a quadratic VAR model to empirically analyze and test the four variables of the consumer price of commercial housing, the old-age dependency ratio, the child dependency ratio, and the savings rate of the residents, and to study whether there is a long-term stable relationship among these four variables and other general patterns that exist among these four variables. other general laws that exist among these four variables. Design/Methodology/Approach: This study decides to start from the perspective of residents' saving rates. It conducts descriptive statistical analysis and empirical analysis by using 33 macroeconomic data (samples) from 1990-2022, official data of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and housing price data from Jurassic Data Network (JDN). The hypotheses are initially set up by descriptive analysis, and then the VAR function model is constructed to analyze and test the hypotheses empirically. Findings: It is found that the sales price of commercial housing is positively correlated with the savings rate of residents; the child dependency ratio is positively correlated with the savings rate of residents; the old-age dependency ratio is insignificantly correlated with the savings rate of residents; and there is a long-term and stable correlation among the four variables of the sales price of commercial housing, the child dependency ratio, the old age dependency ratio and the savings rate of residents. Research, Practical & Social implications: This study improves the relevant theoretical research of economics, demography, sociology and other interdisciplinary disciplines, complements the existing research paths and methods of empirical analysis, and obtains relevant empirical research conclusions. The significance of the study is to provide assistance to the formulation of national macroeconomic and monetary policies, and to contribute to the adjustment of population policies, the reform of the pension security system, and the revision of the medical security system. It also contributes to the adjustment of the population policy, the reform of the pension security system, and the revision of the medical security system. Originality/Value: The study is able to enrich the research practices on the sales price of commercial properties, the dependency ratio of young children, the dependency ratio of the elderly and the savings rate of the population, and make a new contribution to the improvement of people's livelihood, the development of the real estate industry's transformation and upgrading, and the formulation of rational population and economic policies.

Natural resources exploration, efficiency of energy resources and financial development: Resources sector analysis via least square with structural breaks

The financial system in a country is strengthened and reinforced by the presence of natural resources, which serve as a vital catalyst for economic growth and contribute to the overall progress of the financial sector. Therefore, we have examined the interconnections between resource finance, energy efficiency, and economic growth in the context of OECD economies from 1984 to 2021. To analyze these relationships, we have employed various time series methods. To begin with, we used the ADF-GLS test to check for unit roots in the occurrence of structural breaks. This helped us determine the stationarity of the modeled variables. The Bayer-Hanck test was also employed to investigate long-term equillibrium among the variables. We utilized the FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR approaches to examine the elasticities between the variables in the long run. These methods enabled us to accurately estimate the linkage between resource finance, energy efficiency, and economic expansion. To ensure the robustness of our estimates, we employed parametric approaches such as least squares with structural breaks for GDP and robust least squares without structural breaks. These tests helped validate the stability of our findings under different conditions. The results of our analysis revealed that the modeled variables, along with structural breaks, exhibited stationarity at D(1), indicating a stable long-term relationship. We also initiate indication of long-term cointegration among the variables. The outcomes obtained from our primary methods revealed asymmetric results. Specifically, we discovered that mineral rents contribute positively to financial development, while natural gas rents have a negative influence. Moreover, economic growth was found to have a significant and positive influence on financial development, while energy efficiency have an unfavorable effect. Both parametric tests yielded similar robustness checks, further strengthening the validity of our findings. Based on these results, we recommend that natural resource policies, especially those related to natural gas rents, should prioritize promoting energy efficiency, mineral rents, and economic expansion to foster financial development.

Correlation analysis between sleep quality and the mental health status of female sex workers during the COVID-19 pandemic in Hubei Province.

Female sex workers (FSWs) in entertainment venues are subject to condemnation and rejection by their families and the outside world. As a result, they are prone to psychological problems, including anxiety and even suicidal tendencies. The aim of the current study was to understand the sleep and mental health status of local FSWs and to identify associated risk factors, so as to provide a scientific basis for improving the social recognition of FSWs and establishing effective psychological interventions. A stratified cluster random sampling method was used to select women engaged in commercial sex in bathing, sauna, karaoke halls and other entertainment venues. A self-designed questionnaire assessing mental health-related factors was administered face-to-face with the respondents. 90 participants were randomly selected for blood tests to analyze the relationship between biological indicators and sleep quality. The rates of depression, anxiety and somnipathy among FSWs were 32.7%, 43.1% and 8.6%, respectively. The correlation coefficients (r) between sleep quality and depression, anxiety and social support were 0.07, 0.09 and -0.09, respectively. Divorce or widowhood, technical secondary school education, alcohol consumption and exercise were independent risk factors for depression in FSWs (p< 0.05) while living in urban areas and counties and having a sense of social support were protective factors (P< 0.05). Quarantining due to the pandemic and exercise were independent risk factors for anxiety in FSWs (P< 0.05) while living in counties and having a sense of social support were protective factors (P< 0.05). Quarantining due to the pandemic was an independent risk factor for somnipathy in FSWs (P< 0.05) while being married was a protective factor (P< 0.05). NE/NA was a protective factor for sleep disorders (OR=0.042, P=0.05), with an AUC of 0.87. FSWs should appropriately adjust their work form during the pandemic period, maintain a positive and optimistic attitude, establish long-term stable social relationships, and seek a greater sense of social support. The government should provide comprehensive bio-psycho-social interventions to address the mental and physical health status of this population.

Beyond Energy Cooperation: People-to-people Exchanges Between China and Saudi Arabia

Abstract People-to-people and cultural exchanges shape political mutual trust based on value recognition, which constitutes the premise and foundation for the establishment of a long-term stable cooperative relationship between China and Saudi Arabia, and has become a significant driving force for China and Saudi Arabia to surpass their traditional energy partnership and build an all-round cooperation pattern. While consolidating cooperation in traditional fields, China and Saudi Arabia are also constantly developing new areas of cooperation and growth points. People-to-people exchanges between the two sides are witnessing new trends in the rise of youth exchanges, the heating up of “Chinese fever”, the exploration of joint archaeology and digital transformation, while still facing a series of challenges such as periodic turmoil in the Middle East, differences in national conditions, discourse interference, lagging software and hardware construction, limited supply of cultural products, and low accuracy of cultural communication. In the future, China and Saudi Arabia need deepen their people-to-people and cultural exchanges by improving the strategic layout, strengthening resource allocation, innovating communication forms and achieving the integration of culture and tourism, thus these exchanges can play a more prominent role in promoting a new pattern of China-Saudi relations that goes beyond traditional energy partnership to further enrich their comprehensive strategic partnership.

(067) False Positive Pap Smear as The First Sign of Genitourinary Syndrome of Menopause

Abstract Introduction Around 2010, we started to realize in our centers that we were receiving an increasing number of perimenopausal women with abnormal Pap smears (cervical dysplasia), going from ASCUS to low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions or high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions with or without positive HPV. With no previous history of cervical abnormality and almost all of them in a long-term stable sexual relationship with a maximum of 1 or 2 sexual partners. After talking with our pathologist, we asked if vaginal atrophy could produce such results. He answered affirmatively and provided us with a few recent articles that describe such findings. As an advocate for hormone replacement therapy, we decided to start using local vaginal estrogen for several months and then repeat the Pap smears. We were able to confirm that inclusively with those cases diagnosed with high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions, the next Pap smear after the treatment with local estrogens was totally normal. The situation has been repeated in more than 96% of cases in around 1500 patients in the same conditions for the last 12 years. Objective Describe these new findings confirmed by a few articles in the pathology field and two articles on estrogen use, in women ranging between the ages of 30-70 years. Methods Prospective follow-up of perimenopausal patients with positive Pap smears and very low risk for STDs placed on local and/or systemic vaginal estrogen. A Pap smear was conducted at 4 months and then 1 year after, which was followed by the regular scheme of Pap smear follow-ups. Results 96.7% of all those patients with the described characteristics were successfully treated with local estrogens. During the study, we realized that the high number of patients who entered after the initial diagnosis of cervical dysplasia in the regular guidelines of colposcopies, biopsies, LEEP excisions, cryotherapy, and due to the persistence of the findings in more than 50% of those cases (because of the persistence of cervicovaginal atrophy) they finished having cone biopsies and/or hysterectomies. Conclusions We describe the early finding of another sign of genitourinary syndrome of menopause: false positive cervical dysplasias, secondary to cervicovaginal atrophy, due to the decrease in the level of estrogens that characterized the perimenopause. Also, how the management of local estrogens prevents a great number of interventions and patient procedures, saving billions of dollars per year, taking into account that the number of Pap smears in the named population is around 50-60% of all Pap smears practiced in the total population of women. Disclosure No

Natural Gas–Electricity Price Linkage Analysis Method Based on Benefit–Cost and Attention–VECM Model

In recent years, frequent linkage events of natural gas and electricity prices have seriously affected the stability of the energy supply market. In view of the increasingly close linkage relationship between gas and electricity prices, a gas–electricity price linkage analysis method considering the benefit–cost and price transmission of gas units is proposed. Firstly, a benefit–cost model of gas units based on risk premium theory is constructed to reflect the willingness of gas units to offer prices in different market environments. Secondly, a vector error correction model (VECM)-based gas–electricity price conduction analysis method was proposed to study the long-term co-integration relationship between gas–electricity prices and the short-term fluctuation conduction process. Then, aiming at the problem of delay in price transmission, a time-delay analysis method of gas–electricity price based on the attention mechanism is proposed. Finally, the gas price index and average gas power price data of China from August 2020 to November 2022 are used to verify the validity of the proposed model; the numerical results show that the proposed method can determine the long-term stable fitting relationship between gas and electricity prices, and can also analyze and judge the conduction direction of gas and electricity price fluctuations in different time periods.

Scientists’ attitudes about citizen science at Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites

A profound transformation, in recent decades, is promoting shifts in the ways ecological science is produced and shared; as such, ecologists are increasingly encouraged to engage in dialogues with multiple stakeholders and in transdisciplinary research. Among the different forms of public engagement, citizen science (CS) has significant potential to support science-society interactions with mutual benefits. While many studies have focused on the experience and motivations of CS volunteers, scarce literature investigating the perspectives of researchers is available. The main purpose of this paper is to better understand scientists’ attitudes about CS in the context of its potential to support outcomes that extent beyond more traditional ones focused on promoting science knowledge and interest. We surveyed the scientific community belonging to the International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network because ILTER is of interest to multiple stakeholders and occurs over long time scales. Via an online questionnaire, we asked ILTER scientists about their willingness to participate in different types of public engagement, their reasons for participating in CS, the associated barriers, and any impacts of these efforts on them. Our findings show that many ILTER scientists are open to participating in CS for a wide range of reasons; the dominant ones involve deeper public engagement and collaboration. The barriers of greatest concern of these respondents were the lack of institutional support to start and run a CS project and the difficulty of establishing long-term stable relationships with the public. They reported impacts of CS activities on how they pursue their work and acknowledged the benefit of opportunities to learn from the public. The emerging picture from this research is of a community willing and actively involved in many CS projects for both traditional reasons, such as data gathering and public education, and expanded reasons that activate a real two-way cooperation with the public. In the ILTER community, CS may thus become an opportunity to promote and develop partnerships with citizens, helping to advance the science-society interface and to rediscover and enhance the human and social dimension of the scientific work.

Spatial-temporal evaluation of urban resilience in the Yangtze River Delta from the perspective of the coupling coordination degree.

Scientific evaluation of urban resilience will help to improve the ability of self-prevention and self-recovery when facing internal and external pressure. However, existing studies are on basis of the overall perspective of the urban resilience evaluation index system to measure urban resilience, often ignoring the coupling and coordination degree among indicators. Therefore, an empirical analysis is developed, which is used to measure the urban resilience of eight cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2010 to 2019 from the perspective of coupling coordination degree based on the urban resilience evaluation index system. The empirical results show that (1) In time, the eight cities' resilience fluctuated dynamically and varied to different degrees. It presents the spatial distribution characteristics of "high in the center and low in the periphery" in space. (2) In time, the coupling coordination degree in the eight cities fluctuated slightly. The spatial distribution pattern of "high in the center and low in the periphery" was formed in terms of space. (3) There is a long-term stable relationship between urban resilience and the coupling coordination degree among all indicators. In a certain sense, the higher the coupling coordination degree is, the higher the urban resilience is. These results can improve urban resilience to some extent and make cities more resilient in the future collaborative development process, and provide a way to evaluate urban resilience at different spatial-temporal scales.

Relationship resilience and exogenous events: The role of relational dynamics

The paper investigates the main relational dynamics induced by an exogenous event and to what extent these dynamics contribute to relationship resilience. The paper also discusses the pre-existing conditions at the relationship level that favour relationship resilience. Methodologically, this exploratory study relies on in-depth interviews and content analysis, taking the Italian fashion industry as the empirical context under study. The paper conceptualizes relationship resilience in the case of a disruptive exogenous event as the combined effect of pre-existing conditions at the buyer-supplier relationship level and relational dynamics emerging in response to exogenous events. It identifies five pre-existing conditions: stable long-term relationships, with the supplier being irreplaceable for the know-how possessed and the importance of the buyer in terms of purchase, interdependencies generated by specific investments in technologies and innovations in production processes, relational proximity related to the geographical proximity, social bonds as a relevant part of business relationships, adoption of digital tools for the digitalization of the relationship. Theoretical and managerial contributions are also provided.

Exploring the Dynamics between Gold and Crude Oil: An Empirical Study of Their Interrelationship on the Commodity Market

Gold and crude oil are classified as raw materials. The shaping of their prices results, on the one hand, from their use in the economy, and, on the other, from the investment demand for these assets. The purpose of this article is to indicate the reasons for the existence of a relationship between gold and crude oil on the commodity market, as well as to empirically determine whether there is a long-term stable relationship between these assets.