Long-term Historical Trends Research Articles

Changes in Anthropogenic Aerosols during the First Wave of COVID-19 Lockdowns in the Context of Long-Term Historical Trends at 51 AERONET Stations

A quasi-consensus has steadily formed in the scientific literature on the fact that the prevention measures implemented by most countries to curb the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic have led to significant reductions in pollution levels around the world, especially in urban environments. Fewer studies have looked at how these reductions at the ground level translate into variations in the whole atmosphere. In this study, we examine the columnar values of aerosols at 51 mainland European stations of the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). We show that when considered in the context of the long-term trend over the last decade, the columnar aerosol levels for 2020, at the regional level, do not appear exceptional. Both the yearly means and the number of episodes with extreme values for this period are within one standard deviation of the long-term trends. We conclude that the spatially and temporally localized reductions do not add up to statistically significant reductions at the global levels of aerosols. Furthermore, considering that pandemic lockdowns can be thought of as a simulation of a climate change mitigation scenario, we conclude that such lifestyle-based changes present a very low potential as a global climate change mitigation strategy.

Forecast of Corruption: From Ethical to Pragmatic Considerations

From an ethical standpoint, combating corruption is crucial for promoting justice and equality. The rule of law and ethical governance involves clear standards of behavior for public servants and mechanisms for ensuring these standards are upheld. Corruption undermines public trust in government and democratic institutions and exacerbates social inequality and injustice (disproportionately affects the poor and marginalized groups, denying them access to essential services and opportunities). The fight against corruption during a full-scale war has ethical and purely pragmatic implications for Ukraine, the data of which formed the basis of this study. The lack of tangible progress in the fight against corruption in general, the lack of transparency of many institutional mechanisms in public administration, the revealed corruption schemes in the distribution of international military and humanitarian aid, as well as in the field of public defence procurement, the lack of punishment for corrupt officials in the highest echelons of power threaten the loyalty of international donors and allies, reduce Ukraine’s authority in the international arena, slows down Ukraine’s movement towards the EU, and significantly affects the decisions of foreign partners. The article demonstrates the results of forecasting the future level of corruption in Ukraine (for 2024‒2027) based on the retrospective dynamics of the Corruption Perceptions Index by Transparency International for 1998‒2023. Two economic and mathematical models are used for forecasting: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), which better reflects long-term historical trends and fluctuations, and the exponential smoothing method, which is more sensitive to the latest values of the time series. The statistical analysis package STATISTICA was used for the calculations. The forecasting results are disappointing since both methods showed an expected decrease in the level of corruption in 2024-2027, but in critically low volumes: by 1 point according to the ARIMA model and by 3-4 points according to the exponential smoothing method. The results of this study can serve as a basis for public advocacy campaigns as an argument for the need to radically revise the existing format of anti-corruption policy in Ukraine given its European future.

Assessment of long-term historical trends in winter precipitation in Japan using large-ensemble climate simulations: Changes in the impact of southern coastal cyclones

Assessment of long-term historical trends in winter precipitation in Japan using large-ensemble climate simulations: Changes in the impact of southern coastal cyclones

Historical (1960–2014) lightning and LNOx trends and their controlling factors in a chemistry–climate model

Abstract. Lightning can cause natural hazards that result in human and animal injuries and fatalities, infrastructure destruction, and wildfire ignition. Lightning-produced NOx (LNOx), a major NOx (NOx=NO+NO2) source, plays a vital role in atmospheric chemistry and global climate. The Earth has experienced marked global warming and changes in aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions (AeroPEs) since the 1960s. Investigating long-term historical (1960–2014) lightning and LNOx trends can provide important indicators for all lightning-related phenomena and for LNOx effects on atmospheric chemistry and global climate. Understanding how global warming and changes in AeroPEs influence historical lightning and LNOx trends can be helpful in providing a scientific basis for assessing future lightning and LNOx trends. Moreover, global lightning activities' responses to large volcanic eruptions such as the 1991 Pinatubo eruption are not well elucidated and are worth exploring. This study employed the widely used cloud top height lightning scheme (CTH scheme) and the newly developed ice-based ECMWF-McCAUL lightning scheme to investigate historical (1960–2014) lightning and LNOx trends and variations as well as their influencing factors (global warming, increases in AeroPEs, and the Pinatubo eruption) in the framework of the CHASER (MIROC) chemistry–climate model. The results of the sensitivity experiments indicate that both lightning schemes simulated almost flat global mean lightning flash rate anomaly trends during 1960–2014 in CHASER (the Mann–Kendall trend test (significance inferred as 5 %) shows no trend for the ECMWF-McCAUL scheme, but a 0.03 % yr−1 significant increasing trend is detected for the CTH scheme). Moreover, both lightning schemes suggest that past global warming enhances historical trends for global mean lightning density and global LNOx emissions in a positive direction (around 0.03 % yr−1 or 3 % K−1). However, past increases in AeroPEs exert an opposite effect on the lightning and LNOx trends (−0.07 % to −0.04 % yr−1 for lightning and −0.08 % to −0.03 % yr−1 for LNOx) when one considers only the aerosol radiative effects in the cumulus convection scheme. Additionally, effects of past global warming and increases in AeroPEs in lightning trends were found to be heterogeneous across different regions when analyzing lightning trends on the global map. Lastly, this paper is the first of study results suggesting that global lightning activities were markedly suppressed during the first year after the Pinatubo eruption as shown in both lightning schemes (global lightning activities decreased by as much as 18.10 % as simulated by the ECMWF-McCAUL scheme). Based on the simulated suppressed lightning activities after the Pinatubo eruption, the findings also indicate that global LNOx emissions decreased after the 2- to 3-year Pinatubo eruption (1.99 %–8.47 % for the annual percentage reduction). Model intercomparisons of lightning flash rate trends and variations between our study (CHASER) and other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models indicate great uncertainties in historical (1960–2014) global lightning trend simulations. Such uncertainties must be investigated further.

Long-term historical trends in air pollutant emissions in South Korea (2000–2018)

This study aims to understand the impact of previous air quality improvement policies on historical emission changes by examining long-term emission trends in Korea. Annual emissions from 2000 to 2018 were estimated using Korea’s official emissions inventory, the Clean Air Policy Support System (CAPSS). To ensure a consistent comparison, standardization of the method for calculating emissions and unification of the reported emission sectors were conducted each year. Furthermore, Korea’s emissions history was compared with that of neighboring countries, such as China and Japan. The annual emissions of these countries were acquired from the HTAPv3 emissions inventory, an international long-term emission trend study. For comparison, the emission source classification of Korea was matched with that of HTAPv3. As a result of the analysis, NOx and SOx emissions in Korea have shown decreasing trends, whereas VOCs (volatile organic compounds) have indicated a gradual increasing trend since 2000. Compared to the previous period of implementing South Korea’s air quality improvement policy, changes in NOx and SOx emissions, which are combustion-related pollutants, showed a relationship with the policy’s timeline. However, non-combustion-related pollutants such as VOCs did not exhibit such a relationship. It was concluded that the related policies were not as effective in reducing VOCs as planned in the policy. By comparing the emission trends of Japan, Korea, and China, it was confirmed that Japan was the first country to experience a decrease in combustion-related pollutants emissions, followed by Korea and China. Additionally, combustion-related pollutants decreased in all three countries, whereas VOCs decreased only in Japan. VOC is a precursor material generating secondary PM2.5 and Ozone; considering that, if relevant policies are additionally implemented to control future PM2.5 concentrations, and to reduce emissions efficiently and effectively, Japan’s VOC reduction policies can be applied to Korea’s emission reduction policies. These results are expected to serve as important references when establishing future air quality improvement policies in Korea.

Improving stock price forecasting based on recurrent neural networks

The article is devoted to the study of the application of machine learning for forecasting the stock price in the stock markets in the context of the growing capabilities of artificial intelligence. The article examines the issues and relevance of stock price forecasting, as well as describes current approaches to such forecasting as fundamental and technical analysis. Within technical analysis, widely used methods and algorithms of statistics, pattern recognition, sentiment analysis and machine learning are considered. The article focuses on the advantages of using recurrent neural networks as one of the types of artificial neural networks that work with sequential data or time series. Traditional neural networks treat data inputs and outputs as independent of each other, while recurrent neural networks take into account previous elements in the sequence to generate the output, which allows for better prediction of price trends. The article describes the main architectures of recurrent neural networks that exist at the moment and their features, including bidirectional recurrent neural networks, closed recurrent block, and long short-term memory. The last architecture - long short-term memory - was considered in the most detail. This architecture is one of the most difficult to learn and configure, at the same time, it is the most effective for complex tasks such as forecasting the dynamic course of shares. One of its key advantages is solving the problem of gradient damping, that is, the ability to store the context within which price data is analyzed, which makes it possible to detect long-term historical trends and predict future values with high accuracy.

Debt component of financial stability

Subject. The article considers the debt burden of countries and institutional units within them as part of financial stability. Objectives. The purpose is to analyze the conditions and to trace long-term historical trends in the debt of non-financial sector as a factor of financial stability in relation to some developed and developing nations. Methods. The study rests on the review of counter-positions of various authors on the subject, the cross-country comparative analysis, cluster analysis, trend analysis, and the graphical method. Results. The paper offers a systematization of types of debt of institutional sectors, discloses theoretical foundations of debt analysis as a factor of financial stability, reveals long-term trends in non-financial sector’ debt, based on the Bank for International Settlements data covering information on 31 advanced economies and 13 emerging markets. Conclusions. The findings can be used by the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Russia, when developing fiscal and monetary policy strategies and tools aimed at ensuring conditions for financial stability. The paper identifies countries with leverage (including public debt and private sector debt) exceeding critical thresholds in terms of constraints on economic growth and financial stability.

Meteorological parameters and water balance components of Priyadarshini Lake at the Schirmacher Oasis, East Antarctica

The meteorological parameters and water balance components of Priyadarshini Lake at Schirmacher Oasis, East Antarctica, were studied using meteorological data procured from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) weather station, Maitri and field observations in summer seasons of 2017–2018 and 2018–2019. Meteorological data was analysed (daily temporal and diurnal variation) for 2018, and the water balance components were estimated for January–February of 2018. The present work revealed the status of meteorological parameters (air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and snowfall) at Schirmacher Oasis compared to long-term historical trends at the east and west regions of Antarctica. As Priyadarshini Lake is non-endorheic, it transferred freshwater to the sea at the rate of ∼335 × 103 m3/month during summer season of 2018. The water consumption by Maitri station (term W) is very minimal compared to other terms and does not play a substantial role in the lake's water balance. The limited availability of topographic and historical hydro-meteorological data limits the application of physically based hydrological models to simulate snow melt surface runoff at the inflow and assess the impact of climate change on hydrological regimes of the lake. Thus, long term monitoring of the lake with a permanent gauging network for inflows and outflow will pronounce our understanding and enable the option to assess linkage with changing climate.

Bone mineral density through history: Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry in archaeological populations of Norway

Information regarding bone mineral density (BMD) and related variations through prehistoric and historic time periods in Norway is scarce. We present results of BMD measurements of 222 individuals from four rural and urban burial sites representing the medieval and post-Reformation period using osteological analysis and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Existing BMD data from 137 individuals dating to the Late Iron Age and medieval period were incorporated. Young medieval females have the highest mean BMD of all time periods, including the modern female population, and significant higher mean BMD than young females from the Late Iron Age (p = 0.02; q = 0.093). Mean BMD increased significantly from the Late Iron Age to the medieval period (p = 0.0002) followed by a significant decline from the medieval to the post-Reformation period (p = 0.014). The overall results reveal significant BMD variation through prehistoric and historic time periods in Norway. The patterns of age-related bone loss observed in the archaeological record are diverse with substantial temporal changes suggesting a transition towards a modern pattern. The bone loss often exceeds that observed in the population today. This study sheds light on long-term historical trends and patterns in Norway by examining BMD variation and age-related bone loss in adult life of males and females within three archaeological time periods and compared to present populations.

Long-term historical trends in air pollutant emissions in Asia: Regional Emission inventory in ASia (REAS) version 3

Abstract. A long-term historical emission inventory of air and climate pollutants in East, Southeast, and South Asia during 1950–2015 was developed as the Regional Emission inventory in ASia version 3 (REASv3). REASv3 provides details of emissions from major anthropogenic sources for each country and its sub-regions and also provides monthly gridded data with 0.25∘ × 0.25∘ resolution. The average total emissions in Asia during 1950–1955 and during 2010–2015 (growth rates in these 60 years estimated from the two averages) are as follows: SO2: 3.2 Tg, 42.4 Tg (13.1); NOx: 1.6 Tg, 47.3 Tg (29.1); CO: 56.1 Tg, 303 Tg (5.4); non-methane volatile organic compounds: 7.0 Tg, 57.8 Tg (8.3); NH3: 8.0 Tg, 31.3 Tg (3.9); CO2: 1.1 Pg, 18.6 Pg (16.5) (CO2 excluding biofuel combustion 0.3 Pg, 16.8 Pg (48.6)); PM10: 5.9 Tg, 30.2 Tg (5.1); PM2.5: 4.6 Tg, 21.3 Tg (4.6); black carbon: 0.69 Tg, 3.2 Tg (4.7); and organic carbon: 2.5 Tg, 6.6 Tg (2.7). Clearly, all the air pollutant emissions in Asia increased significantly during these 6 decades, but situations were different among countries and regions. Due to China's rapid economic growth in recent years, its relative contribution to emissions in Asia has been the largest. However, most pollutant species reached their peaks by 2015, and the growth rates of other species were found to be reduced or almost zero. On the other hand, air pollutant emissions from India showed an almost continuous increasing trend. As a result, the relative ratio of emissions of India to that of Asia has increased recently. The trend observed in Japan was different from the rest of Asia. In Japan, emissions increased rapidly during the 1950s–1970s, which reflected the economic situation of the period; however, most emissions decreased from their peak values, which were approximately 40 years ago, due to the introduction of control measures for air pollution. Similar features were found in the Republic of Korea and Taiwan. In the case of other Asian countries, air pollutant emissions generally showed an increase along with economic growth and motorization. Trends and spatial distribution of air pollutants in Asia are becoming complicated. Data sets of REASv3, including table of emissions by countries and sub-regions for major sectors and fuel types, and monthly gridded data with 0.25∘ × 0.25∘ resolution for major source categories are available through the following URL: https://www.nies.go.jp/REAS/index.html (last access: 31 October 2020).

New high-resolution gridded dataset of daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature and relative humidity for Central Europe (HYRAS)

This study presents daily high-resolution (5 km × 5 km) grids of mean, minimum, and maximum temperature and relative humidity for Germany and its catchment areas, from 1951 to 2015. These observational datasets (HYRAS) are based upon measurements gathered for Germany and its neighbouring countries, in total more than 1300 stations, gridded in two steps: first, the generation of a background field, using non-linear vertical temperature profiles, and then an inverse distance weighting scheme to interpolate the residuals, subsequently added onto the background field. The modified Euclidian distances used integrate elevation, distance to the coast, and urban heat island (UHI) effect. A direct station-grid comparison and cross-validation yield low errors for the temperature grids over most of the domain and greater deviations in more complex terrain. The interpolation of relative humidity is more uncertain due to its inherent spatial inhomogeneity and indirect derivation using dew point temperature. Compared with other gridded observational datasets, HYRAS benefits from its high resolution and captures complex topographic effects. HYRAS improves upon its predecessor by providing datasets for additional variables (minimum and maximum temperature), integrating temperature inversions, maritime influence and UHI effect, and representing a larger area. With a long-term observational dataset of multiple meteorological variables also including precipitation, various climatological analyses are possible. We present long-term historical climate trends and relevant indices of climate extremes, pointing towards a significantly warming climate over Germany, with no significant change in total precipitation. We also evaluate extreme events, specifically the summer heat waves of 2003 and 2015.

A Multi-Scalar Approach for Assessing Costs and Benefits of Risk Reduction Alternatives for the People and the City: Cases of Three Resettlements in Visakhapatnam, India

Resettlement undertaken with the objective of reducing disaster risk often narrowly focuses only on reducing hazard exposure. However, when resettlements are analyzed from the perspective of holistic development outcomes, including livelihood conditions, health implications, social cohesion and employment opportunities, they are often found to be lacking. Apart from this contrast between considerations of disaster risk and everyday socio-economic risks at the household or settlement level, resettlement programs also lack a clear focus on achieving wider regional development goals including poverty reduction, economic growth and environmental protection. This relates to the sectorization of attitudes to disaster risk and the lack of integration with development concerns across multiple actors involved. This paper offers an approach: (1) to systematize costs and benefits; and using these (2) to assess policy alternatives that could maximize the beneficial outcomes for the resettlement intervention as well as improve overall sustainability for the urban areas they are set in. This paper first situates “risks” within a larger context of structural risks, and then uses the framework of asset accumulation to recognize the changes experienced by the people as costs or benefits. For this, it goes beyond the resettlement site to a broader regional perspective of the city and reflects on the long-term historical trends as well as future risks created by the intervention in the context of urbanization processes and increasing climate variability. To illustrate the use of this approach in assessing intervention alternatives, the paper analyzes three empirical case studies representing in-situ, voluntary and involuntary resettlements from urban Andhra Pradesh in India.

Comparison of co-located ice-core and tree-ring mercury records indicates potential radial translocation of mercury in whitebark pine

Tree-ring records are a potential archive for reconstructing long-term historical trends in atmospheric mercury (Hg) concentrations. Although Hg preserved in tree rings has been shown to be derived largely from the atmosphere, quantitative relationships linking atmospheric concentrations to those in tree rings are limited. In addition, few tree-ring-based Hg records have been evaluated against co-located proxies of atmospheric Hg deposition or direct atmospheric measurements. Here we develop long-term Hg records extending from 1800 to 2018 CE using cores collected from two stands of whitebark pine located near the Upper Fremont Glacier in the Wind River Range, Wyoming, where a long-term record of atmospheric Hg deposition previously was developed from an ice core. The tree ring record showed that Hg concentrations increased beginning in 1800 CE to a broad peak centered at ~1960 CE, before decreasing to present, generally paralleling the ice-core record of Hg deposition. The exact timing and magnitude of the Hg increases in the trees, however, is offset earlier relative to the ice-core record. These discrepancies potentially arise from biotic processes that impact Hg uptake and preservation in whitebark pine, and results from an advection-diffusion model indicate that the temporal differences are consistent with radial movement of Hg within the trees. The forms of atmospheric Hg and seasonality may also impact the Hg record preserved by each archive, but are less likely to affect long-term trends. Further work is needed to assess radial Hg translocation in more controlled studies with larger sample sizes.

Review of Australian east coast low pressure systems and associated extremes

Intense cyclones often result in severe impacts on mid-latitude coastal regions of southeastern Australia, including those due to associated natural hazards such as extreme winds, ocean waves, storm surges, precipitation, flooding, erosion, lightning and tornadoes in some cases. These low-pressure systems, known as east coast lows (ECLs), have been examined in a wide range of different studies, with considerable variations between such studies in what they consider to be an ECL, and their findings on the characteristics of these storm systems. Here we present reviews of literature and other information such as operational forecasting approaches, which are then used to produce a comprehensive synthesis of knowledge on ECLs and associated weather and ocean extremes. This includes aspects such as their definition, formation, meteorology, climatology and drivers of variability from short-term weather time scales up to long-term historical climate trends and future projections. Australian ECLs are also considered here in relation to similar phenomena from other regions of the world. A definition based on this synthesis of knowledge is as follows: ECLs are cyclones near southeastern Australia that can be caused by both mid-latitude and tropical influences over a range of levels in the atmosphere; Intense ECLs have at least one major hazard associated with their occurrence, including extreme winds, waves, rain or flooding. Knowledge gaps are examined and used to provide recommendations for future research priorities. This study is intended to lead to improved guidance and preparedness in relation to the impacts of these storms.

Exploring temporality in socio-ecological resilience through experiences of the 2015–16 El Niño across the Tropics

In a context of both long-term climatic changes and short-term climatic shocks, temporal dynamics profoundly influence ecosystems and societies. In low income contexts in the Tropics, where both exposure and vulnerability to climatic fluctuations is high, the frequency, duration, and trends in these fluctuations are important determinants of socio-ecological resilience. In this paper, the dynamics of six diverse socio-ecological systems (SES) across the Tropics – ranging from agricultural and horticultural systems in Africa and Oceania to managed forests in South East Asia and coastal systems in South America – are examined in relation to the 2015–16 El Niño, and the longer context of climatic variability in which this short-term ‘event’ occurred. In each case, details of the socio-ecological characteristics of the systems and the climate phenomena experienced during the El Niño event are described and reflections on the observed impacts of, and responses to it are presented. Drawing on these cases, we argue that SES resilience (or lack of) is, in part, a product of both long-term historical trends, as well as short-term shocks within this history. Political and economic lock-ins and dependencies, and the memory and social learning that originates from past experience, all contribute to contemporary system resilience. We propose that the experiences of climate shocks can provide a window of insight into future ecosystem responses and, when combined with historical perspectives and learning from multiple contexts and cases, can be an important foundation for efforts to build appropriate long-term resilience strategies to mediate impacts of changing and uncertain climates.

The electrification of energy: Long-term trends and opportunities

ABSTRACT

The Unlikeliness of an Imminent Sub-2-Hour Marathon: Historical Trends of the Gender Gap in Running Events.

The aim of the current study was to analyze men's and women's world records across the full range of running disciplines to contextualize the recent debate about the possibility of a sub-2-h marathon. The average male-female gap is currently 11.2% ± 1.0% for all running events. However, reducing the marathon time to below 2 h would produce a performance 12.9% (+1.7 SD) faster than the women's marathon record. This gap would be greater than all current world-record differences and would also require a reversal of medium- and long-term historical trends in the men's and women's record differences. We therefore conclude that based on historical trends and known differences between men's and women's performances, the current women's world record is not yet the equivalent of a sub-2-h marathon and, therefore, that an imminent sub-2-h marathon is implausible.

The metabolic transition of a planned economy: Material flows in the USSR and the Russian Federation 1900 to 2010

The study of long-term historical trends in material flows has gained some prominence in Ecological Economics since the first studies for Austria and the United Kingdom were published as part of a special section in 2002. This research expands the existing knowledgebase by presenting material flows for the Russian Federation and its predecessor states employing a standard accounting framework. The study of material flows for the Russian Federation provides an interesting and unique case of a planned economy and its transition to a market based form of economic organization. We show that in spite of considerable differences in the physical economy, the USSR developed material use patterns similar to that of Western industrialized economies. Lower levels of consumption were more than outweighed by inefficient production. The transition towards a market economy drove rapid improvements in resource productivity but also growth in metabolic rates. The results indicate that the transition to an industrial metabolic profile proceeds largely irrespective of economic and political conditions. An improved understanding of the evolution of socio-economic systems and the material flows that fuel them is increasingly relevant for designing new systems of production and consumption and facilitating a transition towards a more sustainable industrial metabolism.

The Long View of World Theatre History

The mere chronicling of events is the barest sort of history, for it makes little effort to understand why those events happened when and as they did. This chapter explores world theatre history’s temporal dimension by using Fernand Braudel’s concept of the longue duree. Given that this concept might seem to render human actions irrelevant, the chapter also takes up the issue of agency, arguing that although people operate within the historical contexts of the longue duree, they are the makers of theatre history. As aspects of the longue duree, the chapter discusses three kinds of structures that provide long-lived contexts in which theatre artists work: theatre forms themselves; theatrical structures within regional theatre complexes; and structures of the societal context such as language, religion, and ethnicity/race. It then discusses three long-term historical trends that have directly and indirectly impacted theatre history: technological expansion; increasing societal interactions; and accelerating urbanization.

Deciphering the desiccation trend of the South Asian monsoon hydroclimate in a warming world

Rising propensity of precipitation extremes and concomitant decline of summer-monsoon rains are amongst the most distinctive hydroclimatic signals that have emerged over South Asia since 1950s. A clear understanding of the underlying causes driving these monsoon hydroclimatic signals has remained elusive. Using a state-of-the-art global climate model with high-resolution zooming over South Asia, we demonstrate that a juxtaposition of regional land-use changes, anthropogenic-aerosol forcing and the rapid warming signal of the equatorial Indian Ocean is crucial to produce the observed monsoon weakening in recent decades. Our findings also show that this monsoonal weakening significantly enhances occurrence of localized intense precipitation events, as compared to the global-warming response. A 21st century climate projection using the same high-resolution model indicates persistent decrease of monsoonal rains and prolongation of soil drying. Critical value-additions from this study include (1) realistic simulation of the mean and long-term historical trends in the Indian monsoon rainfall (2) robust attributions of changes in moderate and heavy precipitation events over Central India (3) a 21st century projection of drying trend of the South Asian monsoon. The present findings have profound bearing on the regional water-security, which is already under severe hydrological-stress.