Debt Levels Research Articles

The Association of Childbirth with Medical Debt in the USA, 2019-2020.

Medical debt affects one in five adults in the USA and may disproportionately burden postpartum women due to pregnancy-related medical costs. To evaluate the association between childbirth and medical debt, and the correlates of medical debt among postpartum women, in the USA. Cross-sectional. We analyzed female "sample adults" 18-49years old in the 2019-2020 National Health Interview Survey, a nationally representative household survey. Our primary exposure was whether the subject gave birth in the past year. We had two family-level debt outcomes: problems paying medical bills and inability to pay medical bills. We examined the association between live birth and medical debt outcomes, unadjusted and adjusted for potential confounders in multivariable logistic regressions. Among postpartum women, we also examined the association between medical debt with maternal asthma, hypertension, and gestational diabetes and several sociodemographic factors. Our sample included n = 12,163 women, n = 645 with a live birth in the past year. Postpartum women were younger, more likely to have Medicaid, and lived in larger families than those not postpartum. 19.8% of postpartum women faced difficulty with medical bills versus 15.1% who were not; in multivariable regression, postpartum women had 48% higher adjusted odds of medical debt problems (95% CI 1.13, 1.92). Results were similar when examining inability to pay medical bills, and similar differences were seen for privately insured women. Among postpartum women, those with lower incomes and with asthma or gestational diabetes, but not hypertension, had significantly higher adjusted odds of medical debt problems. Postpartum women experience higher levels of medical debt than other women; poorer women and those with common chronic diseases may have an even higher burden. Policies to expand and improve health coverage for this population are needed to improve maternal health and the welfare of young families.

Re-Evaluating the Major Factors in the Low Origination Rate of the Reverse Mortgage Market

We reinvestigate the major factors in the low origination rate of home equity conversion mortgages (HECMs) in the United States from 2010 to 2017. We use panel data analysis to consider the variation in time and region and investigate the main determinants of the HECM origination rate. We examine five categories of variables: demographics, home equity, home debt level, retirement income, and taxes. We first filter out key variables and then consider the interactions among these factors. The empirical outcomes confirm the significance of including interactions and provide detailed observations to resolve several disputed issues and make policy recommendations, such as debt priority of mortgage and credit card, applying HECM as a personal or household decision, and the dominance of property tax over inheritance tax.

The macroeconomic effects of endogenous credit and money creation under Basel III regulations

AbstractBank regulations affect the behaviour of credit and money creation; hence, they are essential for economic growth and stability. This paper develops an analytical model of the monetary circuit to show the macroeconomic effects of money creation under bank regulations. It describes the equilibrium in which banks create money in accordance with capital adequacy ratios or net stable funding ratios. This study reveals the equilibrium economic growth rate and debt level. In addition, this paper demonstrates how bank regulations influence firm capital structures, and the conditions for firms using debt and filing for bankruptcy. Results show that bank regulations can transfer risk from banks to firms. In fact, this study identifies a channel through which banks actively influence the macroeconomy through their money creation.

The Effect Of Good Corporate Governance, Company Size, And Leverage On The Integrity Of Financial Statements

The Integrity of financial reports is defined as the extent to which the financial statements presented show true and honest information. Two things become the primary qualities in financial reports, namely relevance, and reliability. This study aims to empirically determine the role of good corporate governance and financial performance on the Integrity of financial statements. The variables used in corporate governance are institutional ownership, managerial ownership, and independent commissioners. Financial performance using company size and leverage. The population in this study are property and real estate companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2018-2021. The samples in this study were 16 property and real estate companies determined based on the purposive sampling method. The analytical tool used to test the hypothesis is multiple linear regression. The results of this study indicate that institutional ownership, managerial ownership, and firm size harm the Integrity of financial statements. The amount of institutional and managerial ownership does not make financial reports more relevant and reliable. The presence of an independent commissioner positively affects the Integrity of financial reports, and it can be considered as overseeing the process of making financial reports. While leverage does not affect the Integrity of financial statements, the low level of corporate debt cannot guarantee that financial statements are presented with high Integrity. Future research can develop this research by observing the effectiveness of the company's internal audit team. The internal audit team has an important role in the Integrity of the entity's financial statements.

The Characteristics of the Financially Vulnerable Groups Impacted by COVID-19 and Other Factors

Businesses have been exposed to various challenges during the global pandemic. Unfortunately, the financially vulnerable groups in society are disproportionately affected by such a difficult time. Therefore, it is important for businesses to recognise this when creating new business models for sustainable corporate management. This paper attempts to (1) identify the factors that affect individual financial vulnerability, (2) develop survey items to assess financial vulnerability and its factors and (3) provide the characteristics of financially vulnerable groups by presenting a complete set of descriptive statistics. The results can help to create more inclusive business models that are better equipped to address the challenges ahead. A questionnaire-based survey was conducted with collaboration with an NGO that provides a financial counselling service in Hong Kong. In total, 338 valid responses were collected and the data were used to characterise financially vulnerable groups in terms of (1) change in financial conditions due to COVID-19; (2) exposure to digitised financial services and related push marketing; (3) financial management ability; (4) changes in four financial behaviours and (5) financial vulnerability as measured according to the debt/service ratio. Results show that the respondents have a median debt/service ratio of 0.513, which represents an unsustainable level of debt. Around ¼ of surveyed respondents reported that their debt/service ratio was 1 or even higher, indicating obvious difficulties in meeting financial obligations. A total of 36.7% of the respondents reported worsening financial conditions since the outbreak of COVID-19. The results presented provide a solid empirical set of data that will help future research work to examine and/or develop a heuristic financial vulnerability model that incorporates the key factors leading to it. Businesses can refer to them when creating new business models that are sustainable, able to meet corporate social responsibility goals and can achieve several targets/goals of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals.

PROFITABILITY IN FARMING-PRESUMPTION FOR DIGITALIZATION. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM BULGARIAN HORTICULTURE

In this article, we investigate the impact of selected factor variables in two directions, on the one hand their impact on the financial performance of firms in the agrarian sector and on the other hand as a prerequisite or barrier to investments related to digitalization in the sector. We use an econometric model with fixed effects of panel data to estimate the dependence between the activity results and the selected variables, taking into account the influence of the individual characteristics of the enterprises. The study is based on 733 companies operating in the "Crop farming" sector (NACE.BG – 2008), and covers a period of 13 years (2007 – 2020). Our dependent variable is the return on assets (ROA), and our assessment aims to analyze the main determinants that form it, such as debt level, size and age, etc.

Public Policy and Economic Misery Nexus: A Comparative Analysis of Developed and Developing World

Minimizing the level of economic misery is one of the prime objectives of all economies for the last couple of decades. It is not individuals who can themselves control it, some public policy options provide roots to minimize economic misery. This article has examined the role of public policy in determining the level of economic misery among developed and developing countries from 1987 to 2019. The empirical findings of the article show level of domestic investment, foreign debt, and government revenue are discouraging economic misery among developing countries. Whereas economic development and the level of the population are encouraging economic misery among developing countries. The level of domestic investment is promoting economic misery in developed countries, but government revenue and economic development are reducing economic misery among developed countries. In the case of the whole sample analysis, the level of domestic investment and government revenues decreases the level of economic misery, but the level of population, foreign debt, and economic development depresses the economic misery. Thus, it is concluded that public policy plays important role in determining economic misery both in developed and developing countries. Developing countries should raise the level of domestic investment and government revenue to depress economic misery. Developed countries should raise government revenue and economic development to depress economic misery. So, for the reduction of economic misery in developed and developing countries, public policy must be strengthened.

How Did Local Debt Burden Impact Governors’ Financing Decisions in Meeting Development Goals?

Since the commencement of the New Budget Law in 2015, China provincial governments was given the legal rights to issue Local Government Bonds, which has played a significant role in revealing local indebtedness that was built up over the years. The rapid infrastructure developments have brought up respective debt levels in various levels of governments, and there exist strong concerns on whether provinces with poor development levels are on the edge of financial distress. In addition, it is also unclear on the relationship between local economic development and high debt levels. This research is an attempt to answer that question, and provide observations and analysis based on past local debt data. In summary, this research used provincial LGB data and fiscal income statistics to establish relationships with local debt burden, governors’ financing decisions, as well as the LGB issuance limit setting process. Compared to existing research, updated provincial level data will be used (2015-2021).

Оновлення системи фіскальних правил в Європейському Союзі та перспективні напрями їх реформування в Україні

Introduction. In 2022 and 2023 fiscal rules in Ukraine were suspended by amendments to the Budget Code, although after the end of war the negotiation process with the EU on its enlargement will put the issue of resumption of the fiscal rules in Ukraine and their alignment with the EU norms on the economic reforms’ agenda in Ukraine. Problem Statement. Restoration of the system of fiscal rules in Ukraine and its new substantive filling on the way of Ukraine’s preparation for the EU accession taking into account the experience of implementation of the supra-national fiscal rules in the EU and challenges for the reforms of the budgetary framework in the EU member states. Purpose – drawing lessons of functioning of the numerical fiscal rules in the EU, reviewing the components of transformation of the budgetary framework and mechanisms of the fiscal policy surveillance from the side of the EU supra-national bodies and eventually, on their basis, specifying the core directions of reforming fiscal rules in Ukraine for their approximation to the EU standards. Methods. General scientific and special methods are applied: analysis and synthesis, description and comparison, historical method, method of theoretical generalization and abstract-logical method. Results. The article highlights the essence of fiscal rules as important constituents of modern fiscal institutions, shows the quantitative indicators of extension of the fiscal rules across the world and their common combinations. It reveals the main trends in modification of the fiscal rules and validation of the escape clauses in the course of corona-crisis. The author summarizes the mechanisms of budget deficit regulation, containment of public expenditure growth and limiting public debt level in the EU member states with a focus on the provisions of the Stability and Growth Pact and of the EU Regulations, which specify the tools of application of the Pact and Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. The author synthetizes the key dimensions of current transformation of the EU fiscal rules with an emphasize on the instruments of fiscal policy surveillance in the EU member states and targeting fiscal policy at achieving green and digital transition by their economies with simultaneous debt sustainability goal. Policy proposals are devised for upgrading the system of fiscal rules in Ukraine and their validation after finishing the war. Conclusions. Incorporation of debt limit and budget balance ceiling across the sector of general government into the budgetary legislation of Ukraine, as well as of net primary expenditure rule aimed at restoration of the debt sustainability, as well as mechanisms of implementation of the fiscal rules and independent monitoring of the fiscal rules observance in line with the EU standards (over the medium run) would contribute to securing macro-financial stability in Ukraine and accelerate the economic and political integration of Ukraine with the EU.

A New Look at the Effects of the Interest Rate Ceiling in Arkansas

Arkansas has been a popular place to study the effects of rate ceilings because of its exceptionally low interest rate ceiling. This paper examines the effects of the Arkansas rate ceiling on credit use by nonprime consumers in Arkansas, who are especially vulnerable to credit rationing because of the low ceiling. We compare the level and composition of consumer debt of nonprime consumers in Arkansas with that of prime Arkansas consumers and also non-prime consumers in the neighboring states. We find that nonprime consumers in Arkansas are less likely to have consumer debt and, conditional on having debt, have slightly lower levels of consumer debt than prime Arkansas consumers and nonprime consumers in neighboring states. Types of credit used by nonprime consumers in Arkansas tend to differ from those of the comparison groups. Notable is much lower use of consumer finance loans, traditionally an important source of credit for higher risk consumers. This finding suggests rate-based rationing of risky consumers. Also notable is lower use of bank credit despite federal preemption of the rate ceiling for banks. This result is consistent with banks’ traditional avoidance of risky lending.

The Incarceration Penalty and Black-White Economic Inequality: The Case of Baltimore

This paper investigates income and wealth gaps by household incarceration history within and across racial groups using the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition. We study this in the context of 2017 Baltimore. We find that households exposed to incarceration have lower levels of income and wealth and that these differences are largest for White households. Additionally, we find that Black households without incarceration exposure fare no better in household income than White households with exposure but have higher levels of wealth (driven by lower debt levels). These results highlight the importance of studying the relationship between the criminal legal system and economic inequality.

Board gender diversity and capital structure: Evidence from the Portuguese listed firms

This investigation analyzes the impact of board gender diversity on the financial policies of non-financial Portuguese listed firms between 2010-2019. The study applies the two-step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) for econometric analysis. The results show that board gender diversity affects firms’ capital structure. While female directors have no determinant role in defining firm indebtedness levels, they significantly contribute to its structure. Our results demonstrate that female directors, particularly those with executive roles, consistently contribute to reducing firms’ long-term debt and prefer to issue short-term debt. Moreover, female directors tend to manage trade over financial debt, especially in older firms. Independent female directors play a significant role in smaller firms by decreasing long-term and financial debt. The study supports the notion that gender diversity on the board contributes differently to the firms’ financial policies. Additionally, the findings are in line with the assumptions of agency, resource dependence, and pecking order theories. This study shows that gender diversity promotes short-term debt as a substitute for bank loans to avoid increasing firms’ risk, which ultimately impacts the definition of financial debt levels.

ENSURING THE SUSTAINABILITY OF PUBLIC FINANCES IN THE CONDITIONS OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC INSTABILITY

The purpose of the article is research and assessment of the stability of public finances as a component of the financial system of the state in conditions of instability. Early detection of threats to the stability of economic development and timely prevention of crisis situations is one of the most important long-term goals of the economic policy of the government of any country. The theoretical aspects of the public finance system are considered, namely: their essence, functions and structure, as well as the modern public finance system of Ukraine, its structure and component links. Public finance is a key component of the financial system of Ukraine, which owns more than half of all financial resources and includes various financial institutions that implement the functions of the state. Ensuring public finances is an institutional process, which consists in the implementation of structural transformations of their components to ensure the effective accumulation and distribution of public financial resources in accordance with the priorities of the country’s socio-economic development. The practical aspects of the application of modern tools for assessing the sustainability of public finances in the conditions of Ukraine are revealed. The evolution of approaches to defining the concept of “sustainability” is presented. The multi-functionality of public finances determines their extensive structure, the main component of which is the State budget. The article analyzes the implementation of the State Budget of Ukraine for nine years (2013-2021), as a key component of public finances and one of the criteria for their sustainability, and determines the level of the budget deficit and its share in GDP. It is shown that the budget indicators almost correspond to the European criteria for the sustainability of the public finance system. A manifestation of the instability of the state’s financial position is, as a rule, an unlimited increase in the relative value of the state debt (no more than 60% of GDP). An inevitable consequence of the instability of public finances is hyperinflation and/or the state’s refusal to service its obligations (default). Based on calculations, it was found that the level of the state debt met these requirements only in 2019 and 2021. The need to maintain the ratio of public debt to GDP at a constant level to ensure financial stability is argued by the fact that the amount of public debt, which is constantly growing, may soon reach a certain limit, which will be perceived as the solvency threshold.

GEOECONOMIC FRAGMENTATION: LIKELIHOOD OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL RECESSION AND ANALYSIS OF BANKING RISKS IN UKRAINE

The article was prepared as part of the scientific research “Accounting and financial mechanism of innovative interaction of business entities in the context of the transformation of the knowledge economy and socio-behavioral restrictions.” The article provides a systematization of the concerns of leading economists and financiers regarding the probability of a global financial recession. Current high inflation, low growth rates, high debt and high levels of fragmentation have been proven to reduce the incentives for investment needed to restore growth and improve living standards for the world’s most vulnerable. Both weak demand and high borrowing costs will put pressure on global financial companies, which in turn will force multinationals to cut costs, from cutting operating costs to laying off workers, it said. The author’s vision of methodological configurations and models of innovative interaction of business entities in accordance with the conditions of global challenges is given. The types of trade restrictions and barriers to technology diffusion are characterized, as well as the nature of geo-economic fragmentation that can be felt through cross-industry restrictions, namely cross-border migration, reduced capital flows and a sharp decline in international cooperation, which will make the world even more prone to upheavals. It is emphasized that the export-oriented economies especially suffer from fragmentation. Lower-income consumers in advanced economies will lose access to cheaper imported goods. Small open market economies will suffer greatly due to their heavy reliance on open trade. Supply chain disruptions are projected to have no impact on business activity in 2023, and the cost-of-living crisis may also be nearing its peak, with most. It is proposed to carry out an effective policy in the field of providing the financial market with banking regulation instruments and attracting new investment resources with a guarantee for investors to return their own funds. Scenarios for adapting the accounting and financial mechanism of innovative interaction of business entities to global challenges have been developed.

Accounting and control of indebtedness according to electronic payments of food industry enterprises using information and communication technologies

Introduction. Digitization of socio-economic processes and the implementation of modern information and communication technologies in the currency and banking sphere have led to the evolution of the methodology of electronic settlements with counterparties. The latest stage in the development of electronic transaction systems is the information integration of counterparties into a single information environment of business relationships based on the principles of blockchain technology.Purpose. The purpose of the article is to research the peculiarities of the organization of accounting and control of electronic payments and improvement of their methodology in the context of debt repayment in the conditions of the use of information and communication technologies.Methods. Systemic, innovative, functional approaches and methods of generalization, bibliographic and comparative analysis were used in the process of realizing the established goal of scientific research.Results. It is proved that the fundamental basis of the system of electronic transactions are electronic contracts, which form a database for the digitization of accounting and control processes. A list of permanent and variable accounting data provided by the electronic payment system and the company’s divisions for the digitization of accounting for the occurrence and repayment of receivables and payables is proposed. The procedure for internal control of payment discipline and external independent control (confirmation) of business reliability and solvency has been improved with the notification of all counterparties interested in cooperation. A methodology for rating counterparties based on the reliability criterion has been developed to automate accounting for the formation and use of the reserve of doubtful debts. The possibility and expediency of alternate automatic mutual offsetting of receivables and payables between all counterparties of food industry enterprises based on accounting information based on previously executed smart contracts is substantiated. Mutual repayment of debt in the system of electronic transactions contributes to the minimization of the overall level of debt in the economic systems of the association of enterprises of food industry, cities, regions, etc.Discussion. The automatic offsetting of indebtedness ensures the formation of the phenomenon of debt-free (minimally debt) activity of food industry enterprises, which is an important element of the formation of a post-industrial economy and an optimization society, in which all socio-economic processes are adapted to the needs of people, which is the subject of subsequent scientific research.

Empirická verifikace vztahu mezi saldem hospodaření sektoru vládních institucí a běžného účtu platební bilance: Případ zemí Evropské unie

The article focuses on the relationship between the general government balance and the current account of the balance of payments. The aim is to summarize the existing knowledge about the relationship based on the twin deficit theory and to carry out an empirical verification. As part of the analysis, the Granger causality method is first applied to each EU country separately, and then the threshold panel regression method is used. For the subsequent estimation of the threshold panel model, the direction of the relationship from the general government balance to the current account is considered based on the results of Granger causality. Within the panel, the dependence of the balances on the level of the general government debt to GDP is tested. First, the relationship and its strength are verified in all EU countries. Due to the diversity of EU countries, the economies are subsequently aggregated into sub-panels. Threshold values for general government debt affecting the strength of the relationship between balances are different for individual panels and depend, among other things, on the perception of these countries by the financial markets and often also on the (high) indebtedness of the private sector, which usually requires a more drastic fiscal policy response.

Judicial system reform and trade credit financing: Evidence from a quasi‐natural experiment

AbstractThis paper examines the impact of judicial system reform on trade credit financing using a quasi‐natural experiment in China. We find that the judicial system reform promotes the trade credit financing. The reform effect is stronger for firms that are non‐state‐owned, advocating trust culture orientation, and with high relationship‐specific investment level, high debt level, and low cash holdings level. Moreover, our results show that the increase in business transaction volume and the improvement of internal control quality are important channels to increase the trade credit financing. The judicial system reform has notably improved the total factor productivity and firm value.

IMPLEMENTATION OF THE HIWALAH ACADEMIC IN SOCIAL ENVIRONMENT AND SHARIA FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS

Debt has become commonplace to meet the needs of human life. However, because it is a loan, it must be returned, and sometimes not everyone can return it at the agreed time. Therefore, Islam offers a solution in the form of the Hiwalah Contract. Hiwalah is the transfer of debt from the person who owes it to someone else who is able to pay it. Hiwalah is a unique system suitable for adaptation by humans, because Hiwalah is part of human life in muamalah. The legal basis for implementing Hiwalah is the Qur'an, Hadith, Ijma' and Qiyas. Hiwalah is not used to solve account payments problems but more than that it also serves as a transfer of funds from one person to another or from one group to another. In this case, the banking system has also practiced the Hiwalah contract. The debt transfer system is a transfer of debt burden from the person who is in debt to the person who is obliged to pay because there are similar debt levels. To transfer debt, you can use collateral which is joint property in the financing, so it can be transferred to those who are able to bear it with the guarantee that the assets are transferred to the guarantor. Even on the other hand it could also be for other people who want to continue the stalled financing with the assets being financed as collateral then there is a transfer of use to the insurer. The debt transfer system is a transfer of debt burden from the person who is in debt to the person who is obliged to pay because there are similar debt levels. To transfer debt, you can use collateral which is joint property in the financing, so it can be transferred to those who are able to bear it with the guarantee that the assets are transferred to the guarantor. Even on the other hand it could also be for other people who want to continue the stalled financing with the assets being financed as collateral then there is a transfer of use to the insurer.

Leverage target and firm innovation

PurposeIn this paper, the author examines how capital structure (relative to target) affects firm innovation.Design/methodology/approachThe author uses cross-sectional OLS regressions (for each year of data) to determine whether a firm is above or below its target debt level (in that year) and then uses fixed effects OLS regressions with panel data to examine the impact of having leverage above or below the firm's target on its innovation activity.FindingsThe author shows that firms with below-target debt innovate more in terms of number of patents granted and have better quality innovations in terms of citation counts of patents and in terms of economic value of patents. The results hold for sample splits based on firm age, firm size and access to external finance. The author also shows that the findings are not driven by the negative correlation between leverage and innovation measures. Overall, the results indicate that it is not the actual level of leverage that impacts innovation; the relevant factor that impacts firm innovation is whether a firm is above or below its leverage target.Originality/valueThe author extends the literature on financing innovation by linking leverage target with firm innovation. Findings of this paper also provide supporting evidence that capital structure plays an important role on firm innovation and supplements prior literature that shows the importance of debt in financing firm innovation.

The Impact of War and Pandemic Crises on the Sovereign Creditworthiness and Solvency. The Position, Role and Decisions of International Rating Agencies

Theoretical background: The sovereign creditworthiness and solvency in the context of the pandemic and war crises is one of the biggest challenges that the modern world and the financial market face. It has a key impact on the basic economic indicators, including the price of debt incurred by individual countries and, thus, the profitability of debt securities. The COVID-19 pandemic, which began at the turn of 2019 and 2020, and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine which started on 24 February 2022, have strongly impacted the level of debt of European states and other countries of the world. The energy crisis, which is currently growing, is also taking its toll on the main economic indicators. International credit rating agencies are institutions that have been analysing the sovereign creditworthiness and solvency and individual business entities for many decades. At times, their activities have been the subject of criticism, but their place in the global financial market seems unthreatened and the results of their work still constitute the basic indicator of creditworthiness and solvency evaluation. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this article is to present issues related to the impact of war and pandemic crises on the sovereign creditworthiness and solvency and also the position, role and decisions of international rating agencies. Due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic, these are very important issues that have a real impact on the economic condition of individual countries as well as the standard of living of citizens. This article focuses on these elements of the contemporary reality. Research methods: The subject matter and purpose of the article have been illustrated against the background of current theoretical knowledge, historical research and the latest analyses of key economic indicators, such as inflation or bond yields. The study of the impact of wars on sovereign ratings was empirical. To visualise the historical scale of the wars and pandemics destruction, in the analytical part of the study, statistical data has been re-scaled to the current global population. Main findings: The research conducted in this article has indicated that crises related to a pandemic and war have a negative impact on the sovereign creditworthiness and solvency. Historical studies of armed conflicts and pandemics have shown that the former had a significantly greater impact on inflation and bond yields. For example, the level of inflation started to drop within one year after the end of the wars and almost immediately after the end of the pandemic. The same applied to bond yields. Of course, this was directly reflected in the evaluations of international rating agencies. The issues discussed in the article are of practical application, because the on-going war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic have had a very large impact on the global economy and the financial condition of individual countries. Our research also shows that the war hit the ratings of sovereign countries directly involved in the war, while other countries’ ratings (possibly threatened by aggression from Russia in the future – e.g. EU countries) remain stable.