Background Echocardiographic predictors for new onset heart failure in patients with ischemic heart disease with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (HFrEF) or with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (HFpEF) in Ethiopian and Sub-Saharan African is not well-known. Methods Two hundred twenty-eight patients with ischemic heart disease were retrospectively recruited and followed. Analysis on baseline clinical and echocardiographic characteristics of patients, and risk factors for new onset HFpEF and new onset HFrEF were done. The exclusion criteria were known heart failure at baseline and those who did not have echocardiography data. Results During the follow up period, heart failure developed in 62.2% (61/98) of ischemic heart disease patients with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction and in 70.1% (92/130) of ischemic heart disease patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. We did not find significant difference between HFrEF and HFpEF in time to new onset heart failure. Systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, diabetes, left atrium and diastolic left ventricular dimension had significant association with new onset HFrEF on univariate regression analysis. Whereas new onset HFpEF was significantly associated with age, sex, presence of hypertension, Systolic blood pressure and diastolic left ventricular dimension. On cox regression analysis diastolic left ventricular dimension was associated with both new onset HFpEF and HFrEF. Age, diabetes, and dimension of left atrium were also associated with HFrEF. Conclusion This cohort study in ischemic heart disease patients suggests a key role for the diastolic left ventricular dimension, left atrium size, diabetes, sex and age as predictors of new onset HFrEF and HFpEF. Strategies directed to prevention and early treatment of diabetes, dilatation of left ventricle and left atrium may prevent a considerable proportion of HFrEF or HFpEF.
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