Left-turn Crash Research Articles

Examining driver injury severity in left-turn crashes using hierarchical ordered probit models

Objective Few existing studies in the literature devoted efforts to examine the driver injury severity in left-turn crashes. To fill this research gap, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive study of the contributing factors of left-turn crashes and the corresponding injury severities. Methods The hierarchical ordered probit (HOPIT) model is first applied to study driver injury severity in left-turn crashes. The HOPIT model can overcome the limitations of traditional ordered probit models since its thresholds are always positive and ordered. It is a function of unique explanatory parameters that do not necessarily affect the ordered probability outcomes directly. Considering the driving condition during the wintertime could be significantly different from other seasons, this study divided the overall crash dataset into “winter” and “other-season” subsets based on the temperature, snowing condition, and other factors. Results With the “other-season” dataset, results demonstrated that contributing factors, such as young drivers, male drivers, clear, light, and ramp intersection with crossroad, are associated with a decrease in injury severity. On the contrary, factors like drug, alcohol, disregard traffic control device, high-speed limit, the protected left-turn signal, etc., are related to an increase in injury severity. In winter, results revealed that only nine contributing factors are significant to the left-turn crash. Alcohol, disregard traffic control device, nighttime, high-speed limit, head-on collision, and state road are associated with an increase in injury severity. Also, two-vehicle involved, snow, ramp intersection with crossroad are related to a decrease in injury severity. Conclusions The HOPIT model is applied to examine contributing factors of left-turn crashes and the corresponding injury severity, based on left-turn crash records from 2010 to 2017 in Utah. Eighteen significant factors of left-turn crash injury severity are identified in the overall dataset. In seasons rather than winter, the significant factors are almost the same as that of the entire year. In the winter, less significant factors and different patterns are found compared with the overall crashes.

Left turn crash risk analysis: Development of a microsimulation modeling approach

The use of traffic simulation to analyze complex transportation issues has become common practice in transportation engineering. The further application of microsimulation to the analysis of traffic safety in a systematic, rigorous, and controlled fashion is becoming increasingly viable as simulation models improve and tools for quantifying surrogate safety measures become readily accessible. Using a calibrated traffic microsimulation model and surrogate safety assessment model analysis, this paper examined how the risk for left-turn crashes varied as traffic conditions changed at a signalized intersection.Safety impacts for 750 unique combinations of intersection geometry, traffic, and signal timing parameters were simulated and the number of left-turn conflicts per hour noted. Results of the simulation analyses were used to develop statistical models that expressed the risk of occurrence of a left-turn crash during a given hour as a function of the left-turn phasing mode and prevailing conditions during that hour. The study was motivated by the recent widespread application of the flashing yellow arrow (FYA) which provides the opportunity to vary left-turn phasing mode by time of day—potentially leading to more efficient traffic operations at signalized intersections. In this regard, the study addresses a basic need for tools that predict how the risk for left-turn crashes might vary at a more disaggregated level than that provided by existing crash prediction models, which typically predict yearly totals of left-turn crashes, often based on annual average daily traffic volumes. Potential application of the model to the implementation of a time-variable safety-based left-turn phasing selection scheme using FYA was successfully demonstrated.

Development of Left-Turn Lane Warrants for Unsignalized Intersections

Left-turn movements at intersections, including driveways—especially movements that are made from lanes that are shared with through traffic—cause delays and adversely affect safety. Although some left-turn warrants have been updated, many agencies still use research performed by M. D. Harmelink in the mid-1960s. Most states use procedures that are based on Harmelink's work, but several limitations have been identified. Economic analysis can provide a useful method for combining traffic operations and safety benefits of left-turn lanes to identify situations in which left-turn lanes either are or are not justified economically. This project used a benefit–cost approach to determine when a left-turn lane would be justified. The steps included simulation to determine delay savings from installing a left-turn lane, crash costs and crash reduction savings determined from safety performance functions and crash modification factors available in the Highway Safety Manual, and construction costs. Left-turn lane warrants were developed for rural two-lane highways, rural four-lane highways, and urban and suburban roadways. In addition, warrants for bypass lanes were developed for rural two-lane highways.

Analysis of left-turn crash injury severity by conflicting pattern using partial proportional odds models

The purpose of this study is to examine left-turn crash injury severity. Left-turning traffic colliding with opposing through traffic and with near-side through traffic are the two most frequently occurring conflicting patterns among left-turn crashes (Patterns 5 and 8 in the paper, respectively), and they are prone to be severe. Ordered probability models with either logit or probit function is commonly applied in crash injury severity analyses; however, its critical assumption that the slope coefficients do not vary over different alternatives except the cut-off points is usually too restrictive. Partial proportional odds models are generalizations of ordered probability models, for which some of the beta coefficients can differ across alternatives, were applied to investigate Patterns 5 and 8, and the total left-turn crash injuries. The results show that partial proportional odds models consistently perform better than ordered probability models. By focusing on specific conflicting patterns, locating crashes to the exact crash sites and relating approach variables to crash injury in the analysis, researchers are able to investigate how these variables affect left-turn crash injuries. For example, opposing through traffic and near-side crossing through traffic in the hour of collision were identified significant for Patterns 5 and 8 crash injuries, respectively. Protected left-turn phasing is significantly correlated with Pattern 5 crash injury. Many other variables in driver attributes, vehicular characteristics, roadway geometry design, environmental factors, and crash characteristics were identified. Specifically, the use of the partial proportional formulation allows a much better identification of the increasing effect of alcohol and/or drug use on crash injury severity, which previously was masked using the conventional ordered probability models.

Impact of Left-Turn Phasing on Older and Younger Drivers at High-Speed Signalized Intersections

The study reports on research that evaluated the impact of different types of left-turn phasing on older and younger drivers at high-speed signalized intersections. Using Poisson regression, the likelihood that a driver in a particular age group would be responsible for a left-turn crash under different types of phasing was evaluated. The induced exposure method was used to estimate exposure by age group. The variable of interest was left-turn crash rate for left-turning drivers who were responsible for circumstances contributing to the crash. Older drivers had higher crash rates than younger or middle-aged drivers for all types of phasing. Younger drivers had higher crash rates than middle-aged drivers for all types of phasing. All three age groups had the highest crash rate under protected/permitted and then permitted phasing within their respective age group.

Modeling left-turn crash occurrence at signalized intersections by conflicting patterns

In order to better understand the underlying crash mechanisms, left-turn crashes occurring at 197 four-legged signalized intersections over 6 years were classified into nine patterns based on vehicle maneuvers and then were assigned to intersection approaches. Crash frequency of each pattern was modeled at the approach level by mainly using Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) with the Negative Binomial as the link function to account for the correlation among the crash data. GEE with a binomial logit link function was also applied for patterns with fewer crashes. The Cumulative Residuals test shows that, for correlated left-turn crashes, GEE models usually outperformed basic Negative Binomial models. The estimation results show that there are obvious differences in the factors that cause the occurrence of different left-turn collision patterns. For example, for each pattern, the traffic flows to which the colliding vehicles belong are identified to be significant. The width of the crossing distance (represented by the number of through lanes on the opposing approach of the left-turning traffic) is associated with more left-turn traffic colliding with opposing through traffic (Pattern 5), but with less left-turning traffic colliding with near-side crossing through traffic (Pattern 8). The safety effectiveness of the left-turning signal is not consistent for different crash patterns; “protected” phasing is correlated with fewer Pattern 5 crashes, but with more Pattern 8 crashes. The study indicates that in order to develop efficient countermeasures for left-turn crashes and improve safety at signalized intersections, left-turn crashes should be considered in different patterns.