Leadership Election Research Articles

The 2011 Scottish Conservative Party Leadership Election: Dilemmas for Statewide Parties in Regional Contexts

The 2011 Scottish Conservative leadership election presented the party with two radically different visions for the future. The Scottish Conservatives rejected Murdo Frasers plan to create a new independent Scottish Party of the centre right and elected Ruth Davidson, who promised to reform the party within the UK Conservative Party. The Conservatives rejection of a radical break with the past suggests they will continue along a path of incremental change and supports an institutionalist analysis of party adaptation to devolution. This article explores why Davidson won and examines some of the implications for the Scottish and UK Conservative parties. The centre-periphery tension played out during the campaign is a dilemma for all territorial branches of statewide parties but poses especially difficult problems for the Conservatives because of the tension between unionist and centre-right agendas.

SPIE Leadership Election 2012

SPIE Leadership Election 2012

Brothers all? The Operation of the Electoral College in the 2010 Labour Leadership Contest

This article analyses the wealth of data released by the Labour Party on its 2010 leadership election. We uncover the way in which the list of candidates was expanded via the initial nomination process in the parliamentary Labour Party and highlight the artificiality of some candidacies. We find little evidence in the voting data to support the belief that the Miliband brothers represented two sides of an ideological divide but highlight the profound importance of union nominations in the overall outcome. In the process, our analysis raises significant questions about the practical viability and normative desirability of the electoral college.

Upcoming leadership elections

Time passes swiftly, and I stand amazed at the continued transformation of AGU. Just under 2 years ago the newly created Board of Directors took office. In that short amount of time members of the Board have established themselves as a highly functioning group of leaders committed to moving the organization forward. They have tackled tough issues as they advance AGU's strategic plan, meet member needs, and bring AGU into the 21st century.

Anonymous quantum network voting scheme

We propose a quantum network voting scheme with anonymity and secrecy in this letter. Using two uncoupled quantum chains, an agent prepares a traveling entangled ballot state and transfers it to each voter for voting. After the completion of voting, the ballot state is sent to another authority called the tallyman to count the number of votes for each. The present scheme may be applied to leadership elections and realized experimentally in a quantum network.

SPIE Leadership Election 2012

SPIE Leadership Election 2012

Fight, Flee or Fulminate: Prime Ministerial Challengers, Strategic Choices and the Rites of Succession

Prime ministers often have to work with prime ministerial aspirants, senior ministers who regard themselves as possible successors. But can these challengers seize the job when the prime ministers are reluctant to stand down? Using evidence from Canada, Britain and Australia, the article explores the conditions in which successions have taken place and the capacity of the prime ministerial aspirants to expedite the process. It identifies three alternative strategies that are shaped by the party rules in the different countries. The aspirants may flee, fight or fulminate. Which strategy will best improve their chances of winning the top job depends on the traditional or developing modes of leadership election that their parties have adopted. Some processes provide the means to assassinate the leader. Others have no opportunity to act; rivals can do nothing but wait, either in or outside parliament. The article finds that the broader the constituency that elects the leaders, the more secure those leaders are when their reputation declines.

Reinventing the block vote? Trade unions and the 2010 Labour party leadership election

Labour's electoral college chose Ed Miliband as the party's new leader on the basis of votes that were influenced by trade union activities. Some trade unions made a number of decisive interventions in the 2010 leadership election contest: they coordinated their nominations, canvassed intensely for their nominees (channelling considerable resources into their campaigns), and distributed ballots with strong recommendations in the same package as the voting slips. Such was the closeness of the election that, we argue, these interventions determined the result. This conclusion is all the more surprising since commentators and academics alike had maintained that the introduction of ‘one member, one vote’ had fundamentally reduced the role of trade unions in Labour party politics. In contrast, our opinion is that having been apparently deprived of control by the introduction of one member one vote, trade union elites developed a strategy to mould the outcome of the Labour leadership contest and so reassert their traditional influence over the party. Such was the extent of the role played by the trade unions that, we believe, the normative legitimacy of the electoral process by which Ed Miliband was elected can be called into question although the rules of the contest were not broken.

‘O, brother, where art thou?’ The Labour Party leadership election of 2010

This article examines the 2010 Labour leadership contest, seeking to explain why Ed Miliband narrowly defeated his brother, and erstwhile favourite, David. The article places this contest in the context of previous Labour leadership contests, and also the historical development of the often controversial electoral college which, on this occasion, meant that the first preferences of the Party's parliamentarians were outweighed by the votes of affiliated bodies, most notably the trade unions. Crucially, though, we argue that while undeniably important, the role of the trade unions in ensuring Ed Miliband's victory has been somewhat exaggerated by his political and media opponents. His success over his brother was also due to the fact that he attracted enough second preference votes cast by MPs/ Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) and members of the constituency Labour parties (CLPs) to increase his share of overall support in the electoral college. David Miliband remained more popular than his brother among Labour parliamentarians and CLPs, but Ed Miliband reduced his brother's lead sufficiently over four rounds to ensure that when added to his share of the votes of individual trade union levy-payers, he secured a narrow victory over David Miliband. The votes of the latter were crucial to Ed Miliband, and ultimately decisive, but would still not have been sufficient to secure victory had he not also increased his support, via second preference votes, among Labour MPs/MEPs and CLP members.

The Significance of the 2005 British Conservative Party Leadership Election

The Significance of the 2005 British Conservative Party Leadership Election

The weakness of opposition parties in Botswana: A justification for more internal-party democracy in the dominant Botswana Democratic Party (BDP)

Botswana’s opposition parties are too weak to unseat the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP). To substitute for weak opposition, this paper advocates for more internal democracy in the BDP for Botswana’s democracy to consolidate. The BDP has leadership elections but few other elements of internal democracy. Policy-making is centralised on the party leadership to the exclusion of party membership. The leadership is also excessively intolerant of dissent and parliamentary backbench. Furthermore, the leadership dominates candidate selection, thus determining the composition of parliament. With membership excluded from policy-making, critics silenced and backbench disciplined, possibilities exist for the BDP government to become unresponsive, unaccountable and authoritarian. For internal democracy to substitute for weak opposition, the paper proposes that BDP factionalism should shift from opportunism to principle. Finally, considering that Botswana’s constitution compounds autocracy in the BDP by centralising power on the president and granting him/her immunity from prosecution, the paper advocates for constitutional amendment. Key words: Botswana, democracy, consolidation, opposition, internal-democracy, party- factionalism.

How Michael Foot Won the Labour Party Leadership

This paper examines the voting motivations of Labour parliamentarians in the final parliamentary ballot of the Labour party leadership election of 1980. By constructing a data set of the voting behaviour of Labour parliamentarians and by determining the ideological disposition of the 1980 parliamentary Labour party (PLP) this paper examines the ideological disposition of the candidates' vis‐à‐vis their electorate, and offers a challenge to traditional interpretations of how and why Foot was elected. The traditional interpretation has sought for explanations as to how a right‐wing dominated PLP elected a left‐wing candidate. Whilst citing the traditional interpretations of the impact of the impending Electoral College, mandatory reselection and the assumed weaknesses of the Healey campaign, this paper argues that there was considerably more left‐wing sentiment within the 1980 PLP in terms of economic management, defence and the Common Market, than previously considered. As such this paper suggests that, taken with the impact of the other factors, the victory of Foot should not be seen as that surprising.

Japan's leader faces hurdles after winning vote

Prime Minister Naoto Kan scored a decisive victory in the Democratic Party of Japan's (DPJ) leadership election on 14 September, thus ensuring that he could remain in office. Kan's presidency of the DPJ, which holds a majority in the lower house of Japan's National Diet (parliament), had been contested by Ichiro Ozawa, leader of the largest grouping among its members of parliament. Having overcome this party wrangle for now, Kan now faces the challenge of restoring stability to Japanese domestic and international policy, in the face of numerous obstacles.

The Labour Party Leadership Election of 1963: Explaining the Unexpected Election of Harold Wilson

The failed attempts that Harold Wilson made to rest the Labour Party leadership from Hugh Gaitskell in 1960, and the Deputy Leadership from George Brown in 1962, had confirmed his reputation for disloyalty and divisiveness, and secured him the hostility of ‘social democratic right’. As they constituted the majority of the parliamentary Labour Party and ideology was assumed to be the dominant influence in any future party leadership contest, this seemed to undermine the chances of the ‘socialist left’ candidate Wilson succeeding Gaitskell. This paper examines how Wilson defied these assumptions and acquired the party leadership in 1963 following the death of Gaitskell. It attributes his success to the following. First, the fact that the minority left only put one candidate forward, ensured that they coalesced around one candidate. Second, the fact that the majority social democratic bloc fractured between Brown and James Callaghan gave Wilson a first ballot lead and second ballot momentum. Third, the naïve campaigning by Brown meant he was perceived to be a divisive candidate whilst Wilson, the devious, disloyal and defeated challenger to Gaitskell, was amazingly the unity candidate.

MEMBERSHIP BALLOTS IN PARTY LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS IN BRITAIN

Given the propensity of party members to be ideologically less centrist than voters, British parties’ shift to membership ballots in leadership elections might have been expected to result in radical leaders. This paper explains why this development has largely not occurred, using data from four recent leadership elections. Following Stark (1996), it argues that members’ selection criteria are unity, electability and competence. The paper shows that members are not blind ideologues but are sensitive to the need for party unity.

LABOUR LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS FROM WILSON TO BROWN: IDEOLOGICAL FACTIONS AND SUCCESSION PLANNING STRATEGIES

This paper examines the succession planning strategies deployed by ideological factions at the level of the parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) in party leadership elections since 1963. The paper seeks to evaluate the short term tactics and long term strategies pursued by the ‘socialist left’ and the ‘social democratic right’ to enhance the prospect of their faction securing the lineage on the party leadership. The analysis will be undertaken by considering two key aspects of party leadership selection: first, ideological factions and the processes within which they determine, or fail to determine, who ‘their’ candidate should be; and, second, the importance of party leadership selection rules and the significance of the left’s commitment to shifting from a PLP ballot to an Electoral College based on their assumption that this would aid their succession planning. Incorporating analysis of each of the leadership contests since 1963, the paper suggests that the inability of the left to pass the threshold for participation in 2007 was a reflection of their tactical and strategic miscalculations in terms of succession planning dating back to 1980.

Ideological alignments within the parliamentary Labour Party and the leadership election of 1976

The orthodox interpretation of Labour Party historical analysis in the 1960s and 1970s has assumed the existence of a ‘majority’ social democratic right within the parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) prevailing over a ‘minority’ socialist left. In the limited academic work that exists on the Labour Party leadership election to determine the successor to Harold Wilson, it has become established that voting behaviour by Labour parliamentarians, and the subsequent election of James Callaghan over Michael Foot, was shaped by ideological alignments and was thus indicative of the enduring numeric strength of the social democratic right vis-a-vis the socialist left. This article offers a narrative of the succession contest and reappraises this traditional explanation. It then challenges the validity of the traditional explanation by questioning the viability of the orthodox one-dimensional left-right ideological divide. The article identifies the cross-cutting nature of ideological alignments within the PLP in 1976, and demonstrates that individual Labour MPs could not necessarily be placed in left wing (that is, economic expansionist, unilateralist and anti-common market) or right wing (that is, economic consolidators, multilateralist and pro-common market) pigeon holes. By analysing the attitudes and behaviour of all Labour parliamentarians across the three dominant ideological policy divides (that is, the economy, defence and the common market), the article will demonstrate that left wing thinking was actually predominant within the PLP on the economy, defence and the common market. Our revisionist account highlights how the candidature of Foot failed to secure the loyalty of ideological bedfellows, while the triumph of Callaghan was due to his capacity to appeal to those who did not necessarily share his ideological commitments.

The Voting Motivations of Conservative Parliamentarians in the Conservative Party Leadership Election of 2001

This article examines the voting motivations of Conservative parliamentarians in the final parliamentary ballot of the Conservative party leadership election of 2001. By constructing a data set of the voting behaviour of Conservative parliamentarians in the final parliamentary party ballot, this article seeks to test a series of hypotheses relating to the ideological disposition and political characteristics of the candidates vis-à-vis their electorate. The article examines how and why the eliminative parliamentary ballot ensured that the party membership was presented with a face-off between the europhile, Kenneth Clarke, and the eurosceptic, Iain Duncan Smith, and why the modernising and socially liberal Michael Portillo was rejected. It will demonstrate that while arguments based on ideological factors are valid, the political characteristics of age and career status were also significant motivational influences that contributed to the rejection of Portillo and the delaying of the modernisation of the Conservative party.

The Lack of Internal Party Democracy in the African National Congress: A Threat to the Consolidation of Democracy in South Africa*

This article argues that the lack of internal democracy within the African National Congress (ANC) is a threat to the consolidation of South African democracy. The ANC has leadership elections but few other elements of internal party democracy. There is a centralised style of leadership in which the National Executive Committee (NEC) or even individual leaders dominate decision-making to the exclusion of the membership and lower party structures, and there is still an adherence to Leninist principles such as ‘democratic centralism’ and the need for ‘absolute party discipline’ on the part of party members. Coupled with an intolerance of debate and dissent by the leadership, these features stifle debate of important issues and policies. Thus, bad decisions by the leadership cannot be checked within the party before becoming public policy. Since lower structures and the general membership are deprived of an opportunity to influence public policies, the government in some instances becomes unresponsive to the people's needs. Democratic centralism and the absolute party discipline required from ANC members deployed in various state institutions, especially parliament, weakens their ability to provide oversight over the executive or influence public policy that contradicts the party line. The executive is thus left unchecked and virtually free to act as it wishes where the institution of accountability is ANC-dominated. Instead of consolidating democracy, these factors could lead, eventually, to the gradual decay of liberal democracy in South Africa. Whilst multiparty democracy might well continue to exist, such democracy could be of low quality, particularly with regard to government responsiveness and accountability, given the overwhelming dominance of the ANC. Thus, internal democracy within the ANC is a prerequisite for the consolidation of South African democracy.

Partisipasi Politik Muslimah dalam Pandangan Yusuf Qardhawi

The role sahabiyyat companions of the Holy Prophet Muhammad PBUH has given many examples in political participation. These political dimensions may be seen from their activities. All political roles of female companions of the Messenger of Allah is considered as the implementation of Muslimah politics at the time being. Yusuf Qardhawi is among vew Muslim scholars who concerns upon the role and participation of Muslimah in politics. In the view of Qardhawi, Islam has practiced democracy to lay on the principle and norms of democracy itself. A Muslimah supports democracy with consideration that democracy is a mechanical authority to actualize the political principles of Islam, such as in the leadership election, organizational consultation, a media of commanding the truth and avoiding the false, against tyrannies and avoiding the vise , particularly at the unbelieving in Allah. Even though, the political participation of a Muslimah has faced many obstacles external as well as internally.