Launch Vehicle Costs Research Articles

Reexamining the Mission Architecture Decision of Project Apollo: A New Parametric Perspective

Although the historical and technical details of Project Apollo have been extensively documented in literature, current records indicate that there is still a lack of an early-design-phase, physics-based, parametric sizing quantification of the engineering decisions that made Apollo a success. Historical texts that explain the design decisions of Apollo do so in a predominantly qualitative manner, leaving out the physics-based Future Projects Office–type calculations, whereas technical texts tend to explain the design details at higher fidelity, overall leading the engineer away from the big picture design understanding. This paper reexamines the critical mission architecture (or mission mode) decision from a holistic and parametric perspective. After parametrically connecting a launch vehicle sizing process with an in-space element sizing process, a generic mission architecture solution space is generated that enables the visualization and comparison of the various Project Apollo architecture options. The mission planner can then consistently compare the competing architecture options like lunar orbit rendezvous or direct flight with each other based on their overall launch mass, launch performance, and launch vehicle cost. It is identified that the lunar orbit rendezvous approach is the clear winner in terms of launch vehicle size and cost.

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Thermomechanical Coupling Analysis and Optimization of Metallic Thermal Protection System

The metallic thermal protection system (MPTS) is a key technology for reducing the cost of reusable launch vehicles, offering the combination of increased durability and competitive weights when compared with other systems. A two‐stage optimization strategy is proposed in this paper to improve thermal and mechanical performance of MTPS while minimizing its weight. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the influence of various design variables, and these variables are classified into two groups according to the results. Three main parameters are optimized in the first‐stage optimization, and others are optimized in the second stage. Combining the response surface method with genetic algorithm ensures the computational efficiency of this strategy. Optimum results show that the thermal insulation capability of MTPS is improved by 20% with little mass cost, validating the feasibility of this optimization strategy.

低成本运载火箭发展与分析

为适应未来军事和商业航天低成本发射需求，世界各航天机构纷纷提出各自的低成本运载火箭设计方案，并采取各种技术措施大幅降低发射成本。对各主要方案和技术进行对比，从美国某型运载火箭各组成部分与其质量和成本估计、猎鹰9R可重复使用运载火箭运载能力损失和总低成本估计两个方面分析了运载火箭成本与性能的关系，并为我国低成本运载火箭研制提出相应发展建议。 By the low cost requirement in military and commerce spacecraft launch tasks, many space institutions in the world have proposed multifarious design schemes of low cost launch vehicles, and all kinds of new technologies and measures have been adapted to reduce the total launch cost. The paper researched the major design schemes and key technologies comparatively. Then the relationship between of cost and performance of the launch vehicles are independently analyzed from mass percents and cost percents of the major components for a certain American launch vehicle and carrying capability loss and total low cost for a reusable launch vehicle. At last, several proposals were presented for the development of low cost launch vehicles in China.

低成本运载火箭总体设计研究

数十年来，高昂的发射成本一直是制约航天业发展的主要因素。随着SpaceX公司成功回收猎鹰9R火箭的一子级，世界各航天机构纷纷提出各自的低成本火箭研制发展计划。通过收集和分析国外低成本火箭发展计划，针对低成本火箭研制难题，主要从结构设计、发动机设计等六个方面进行了总体设计研究，为我国低成本运载火箭研制发展提供借鉴。 Expensive launch cost is a key limitation factor of aerospace technology and application development for decades. With the success recovery of FALCON-9 first stage, many space institutions in the world have proposed their different development schemes of low cost launch vehicles. This paper collected and analyzed abroad development schemes of low cost launch vehicles. Aiming at the difficulty of the design and manufacturing, the overall design researches are presented in six fields, such as structure design, engine design, and so on. The research results can afford us lessons for development of low cost launch vehicles.

Capability and Cost-Effectiveness of Launch Vehicles

Data for space launches and launch vehicles from 2000 to 2013 are analyzed to rate the relative capability and cost-effectiveness of launch vehicles for missions. The masses of mission payloads are used to determine the cost of payload mass delivered to low Earth and geosynchronous transfer orbits. These costs are higher due to wastage of launch vehicle capacity totaling 20.4% for the studied missions. A minimum cost scenario is then studied, where the lowest cost launch vehicle capable of performing a mission is used. In this scenario, the total price over the studied period for launches with complete data would be reduced from $44.2B to $33.4B, a savings of 24.5%. Usage is then compared with this scenario, and it is found that the cheapest launch vehicle capable of performing a mission is only used for 20.4% of studied missions.

A Pathway to Small Satellite Market Growth

The United States is experiencing a renaissance in interest in space due to the advent of new lowercost small spacecraft. New launch entrants, such as Interorbital Systems, promise to lower launch cost levels. Many developers also benefit from free-to-developer launch services from NASA or the ESA. Unfortunately, existing commercial off the shelf (COTS) CubeSat hardware is priced based on amortization of design costs across low-sales volume. A lack of trained staff in any one of the numerous disciplines required for spacecraft design or other resources required for in-house development restricts entry into the small satellite industry to those who can afford expensive COTS hardware or pay for significant design expenses. With entry-level satellite hardware still priced in the six-figure range, limited market growth is expected even as the average CubeSat launch cost continues to decline. A new archetype could lower barriers to entry for building small satellites. A free, public-domain architecture for building a small satellite could allow low-cost, in-house satellite development. Under this paradigm, the expenses for initiating a small satellite program are limited to component and launch vehicle costs. The proposed framework allows for broad access to small satellite hardware, greatly increasing the size of the small satellite developer community. In the context of the small satellite market, freely offering plans to construct an entry-level satellite will court new non-traditional actors into building space hardware for launch on commercial and government small satellite launchers. The low-cost, high flight rate possible with the next generation of launch systems affords operators the freedom to experiment and innovate in a risktolerant environment. Successfully demonstrating products and services utilizing low-risk, publicdomain plans will stimulate demand for mature and more capable flight systems in the retail marketplace. If technical schools, community colleges, universities, small businesses and even amateurs can enter into the small satellite ecosystem, at an affordable entrance price, a positive spiral of increasing demand and decreasing cost may be created over time. A free, public domain satellite architecture may, thus, open the door to sustained growth and commercial opportunity for the small satellite industry.

Launch vehicle multi-objective reliability-redundancy optimization using a hybrid genetic algorithm-particle swarm optimization

This paper focuses on multi-objective reliability optimization of a two-stage launch vehicle using a hybridized Genetic Algorithm-Particle Swarm Optimization with provisions of relative weighting between the objectives. In this respect, the launch vehicle key subsystems as well as their functions are initially introduced. Subsequently, the system reliability block diagram is constructed using the launch vehicle working order of the subsystems augmented with the requirements for a robust fault/failure tolerant design and performance. Next, based on the proposed reliability block diagram arrangement a bi-objective optimization is formulated to maximize the system reliability while minimizing the launch vehicle cost with design variables being the component reliability, system redundancy level, and the type of components. To examine the validity of the proposed algorithm, a benchmark problem in reliability-redundancy optimization is also investigated through the proposed scheme. Benchmark simulation results indicate that neither genetic algorithm nor the particle swarm optimization alone can produce sufficiently accurate optimal results, but their hybrid combination is more efficient and achieves the desired level of accuracy. Thus the proposed hybrid genetic algorithm-particle swarm optimization is applied to the problem of launch vehicle multi-objective reliability optimization that has resulted in a convex Pareto front, out of which many design points could be selected for implementation. Finally, a Monte Carlo simulation is performed against the subsystem reliability uncertainty in order to analyze the effect of uncertainty on the total launch vehicle reliability and cost.

LIFE: Life Investigation For EnceladusA Sample Return Mission Concept in Search for Evidence of Life

Life Investigation For Enceladus (LIFE) presents a low-cost sample return mission to Enceladus, a body with high astrobiological potential. There is ample evidence that liquid water exists under ice coverage in the form of active geysers in the "tiger stripes" area of the southern Enceladus hemisphere. This active plume consists of gas and ice particles and enables the sampling of fresh materials from the interior that may originate from a liquid water source. The particles consist mostly of water ice and are 1-10 μ in diameter. The plume composition shows H(2)O, CO(2), CH(4), NH(3), Ar, and evidence that more complex organic species might be present. Since life on Earth exists whenever liquid water, organics, and energy coexist, understanding the chemical components of the emanating ice particles could indicate whether life is potentially present on Enceladus. The icy worlds of the outer planets are testing grounds for some of the theories for the origin of life on Earth. The LIFE mission concept is envisioned in two parts: first, to orbit Saturn (in order to achieve lower sampling speeds, approaching 2 km/s, and thus enable a softer sample collection impact than Stardust, and to make possible multiple flybys of Enceladus); second, to sample Enceladus' plume, the E ring of Saturn, and the Titan upper atmosphere. With new findings from these samples, NASA could provide detailed chemical and isotopic and, potentially, biological compositional context of the plume. Since the duration of the Enceladus plume is unpredictable, it is imperative that these samples are captured at the earliest flight opportunity. If LIFE is launched before 2019, it could take advantage of a Jupiter gravity assist, which would thus reduce mission lifetimes and launch vehicle costs. The LIFE concept offers science returns comparable to those of a Flagship mission but at the measurably lower sample return costs of a Discovery-class mission.

TRANSCOST를 이용한 한국형발사체의 생산 및 운용 비용 추정

우주발사체 개발은 우주 선진국으로 도약하기 위해 반드시 필요한 중요한 사업이며 막대한 비용과 장기간의 개발기간이 소요되는 만큼 위험이 존재한다. 성공적이고 효율적인 우주발사체 개발을 위해서는 적절한 개발 비용 산정이 중요하다. 또한, 우주발사체를 상업용 발사체로 활용하기 위해서는 다른 우주발사체와의 경쟁력 비교를 위해 생산 및 운용 비용의 추정도 필요하다. 본 논문에서는 한국에서 개발되는 우주발사체의 생산 및 운용 비용을 추정할 수 있도록 한국의 인력 및 기술 수준, 평균 작업시간 등과 같은 요소를 반영할 수 있는 한국화요소에 대해 분석하였다. 또한, 한국화요소를 적용하여 KSLV-II의 생산 및 운용 비용을 추정해보고 해외 발사체의 발사 비용과 비교를 통해 발사체 서비스 시장에서 상업용 발사체로서 경쟁력을 평가하였다. The development of space launch vehicle is an important step to advance to developed countries in the space area. It is also so risky due to necessity of huge costs and longer development period. The accuracy of cost estimation is important to develop a space launch vehicle successfully and efficiently. It is also necessary to estimate production and operation cost in order to develop commercial space launch vehicle possessing competitiveness. In this paper, Korean factors to be able to reflect the current state of workforce, average working hours and technology readiness level in Korea were analyzed to estimate production and operation cost of space launch vehicles that are developed in Korea. Korean factors have been applied to production and operation cost estimation of KSLV-II based on TRANSCOST. We evaluated the competitiveness level of KSLV-II as the commercial launch vehicle in the commercial launch services market by comparing with cost per flight of foreign launch vehicles.

Design Optimization of a Space Launch Vehicle Using a Genetic Algorithm

This paper describes an effort to optimize the design of an entire space launch vehicle to lowEarth (circular) orbit, consisting of multiple stages using a genetic algorithm with the goal of minimizing vehicle weight and ultimately vehicle cost. The entire launch vehicle system is analyzed using various multistage configurations to reach low Earth orbit. Specifically, threeand four-stage solid propellant vehicles have been analyzed. The vehicle performance modeling requires that analysis from four separate disciplines be integrated into the design optimization process. The disciplines of propulsion characteristics, aerodynamics,mass properties, andflight dynamics have been integrated to produce a high-fidelity systemmodel of the entire vehicle. In addition, the systemmodel has been validated using the existing launch vehicle data. The cost model is mass based and uses extensive historical data to produce a cost estimating relationship for a solid propellant vehicle. For the design optimization, the goal is for the genetic algorithm tominimize the differences between thedesired andactual orbital parameters. This ensures that thepayload achieves the desired orbit. One final goal is to minimize the overall vehicle mass, thus minimizing the system cost per launch. This paper will represent the first effort of its kind to minimize the solid propellant launch vehicle cost at the preliminary design level using a genetic algorithm.

Advanced space system concepts and technologies: 2010-2030+

The book presents an imaginative view of what space could well become in the next several decades if new technologies are developed and bold new innovative applications are undertaken. It discusses the following concepts: a future environment for space activities very different from the predominant conditions of the past and present; a dozen critical technologies with the potential for making orders-of-magnitude reductions in spacecraft and launch vehicle weight and cost and orders-of-magnitude increases in their performance; and a large number of space applications that use these technologies to address both established as well as unconventional missions and functions that have revolutionary potential.

Space systems considerations in the design of advanced geostationary operational environmental satellites

Advances in space systems are providing challenging opportunities for the design of smaller, lighter, more efficient and cheaper satellite systems. A review of spacecraft power systems, structural materials, thermal design and cooling systems, electronic modules and advances in detector technology is provided. The science requirements for NOAA's advanced imager are presented. The NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory design trade study for NOAA's 8-channel advanced imager shows that a 30 cm aperture mirror design can meet most of NOAA's requirements; though superior, the 45 cm mirror design option was abandoned due to instrument mass restrictions. The Aerospace Corporation was requested by NOAA to compare consolidated and distributed architectures. There appears to be no significant advantage for NOAA in pursuing distributed architecture for our future systems. A lighter overall mass is the key driver in reducing geostationary launch vehicle costs. Instrument design trade studies and spacecraft architectural studies are helping NOAA to plan for the future GOES systems.

NASA Solar Probe mission and system concepts

Major evolutionary steps have occurred recently and will be reviewed in the design of the Solar Probe mission resulting in a new lightweight and low cost concept that will change the earlier perceptions of this scientifically exciting mission. NASA program guidelines emphasize low life-cycle-costs which include the launch vehicle and mission operations costs. The new Solar Probe concept reflects these guidelines and is consistent with a realistic life-cycle cost of less than four hundred million dollars for a dual spacecraft mission. This has been possible with the inheritance of high technology systems that have been developed for other missions during the past decade. In addition, a proposed scientific instrument payload with significantly reduced mass was accommodated on the smaller spacecraft. New mission design concepts have optimized the encounter (perihelion) trajectory conditions allowing a new parabolic shield concept. The perihelion radius is specified at four solar radii to capture as many of the scientific objectives consistent with the thermal environmental constraints. The trajectory with these perihelion conditions relies on Jupiter to provide the energy change necessary to achieve the final orbit. With the new low mass concept for the Solar Probe, a small launch vehicle such as a Delta can provide the required launch energy. System design concepts consistent with these mission requirements and small and low cost system elements will be discussed in the context of three case studies describing the evolution of the spacecraft and mission design concepts and their accommodation of scientific experiments over the past two decades. Details of some of the principal technology elements of the spacecraft will also be presented.

Nasa's Small Explorer Program

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Office of Space Science and Applications has initiated a new component of the Explorer Program to provide research opportunities characterized by small, quick turn-around, and frequent space missions. The objective is to launch one to two payloads per year, depending on mission cost and availability of funds and launch vehicles. The first Small Explorer Announcement of Opportunity, released in May 1988, invited proposals in Astrophysics, Space Physics, and Upper Atmospheric Science disciplines. From the 51 proposals received, four missions were selected for flight. The initial flight missions described in this paper, in order of tentative launch date, are: the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX); the Submillimeter Wave Astronomy Satellite (SWAS); the Fast Auroral Snapshot Explorer (FAST); and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS). In order to avoid oversubscribing the program, NASA plans to issue an Announcement of Opportunity every few years and to select only the investigations that can be launched within a three year period.

Launch cost analyses for reusable space transportation systems (Sänger II)

With the revival of studies for more economic fully reusable launch vehicles on both sides of the Atlantic, cost estimation analyses become of major importance. This is due to the fact that the essential cost reduction expected by fully reusable launch systems need to be substantiated for the justification of the development effort. The TRANSCOST model developed in the 1970–1983 period for launch vehicle cost analyses dealt mainly with expendable launch vehicles. This paper shows updated material and CERs for launch cost including fabrication and operations cost for future reusable and winged systems, such as Sänger II with the ETHV hypersonic manned winged upper stage.

Potential directions for a second generation Space Shuttle

This paper reports on trends and potentials for advanced rocket vehicles which may be candidates for eventual phased replacement of the Shuttle. Although such a replacement need is not foreseen until 2002 at the earliest, due to the long time to develop a new vehicle, its definition has already begun. The paper discusses the role of such a “Shuttle II” in the architecture of launch vehicles likely to exist in the post-2000 era, leading to its designation as a smaller, primarily passenger-carrying vehicle to complement large, unmanned cargo launch vehicles. While a two-stage glide-back fully reusable configuration is optimum for near-term technology, a single-stage-to-orbit reusable glide-back configuration is optimum for farther-term technology advances. For advanced technology which could be available in the mid 90s, such vehicles could orbit a payload weight equal to their own dry weight—a factor of 10 better than current launch vehicles. Major reductions in launch vehicle costs (and therefore the costs per pound of payload) are more dependent on making radical changes in ground operations than on the gross weight or type of launch vehicles.

Life-cycle-cost considerations for launch vehicle liquid propellant rocket engine

This paper discusses the engine cost contribution to the life cycle cost of launch vehicles and what cost differences exist between engines designed for expendable and reusable vehicles. The cost drivers in the engine development and production phases, and during vehicle flight operation, are delineated. Analysis of historical cost data and parametric cost modeling were used as a basis for the cost observations. Several measures for potential engine cost reduction are discussed. These include the early use of a test bed, and the selection of the Space Shuttle Main Engine reliability and test approach for development; the introduction of multiyear buys for expendable engines to capitalize on the cost advantages of high production quantities and rates through low-cost fabrication method with automation; and the decrease in operation and support costs for reusable engines due to the use of long life and high mean time between replacement components, and by extensively employing condition monitoring and diagnostic instrumentation. The lessons learned from past booster engine programs, e.g., the F-l, J-2, and SSME, with regard to engine life cycle cost, provide some valuable insights for the next generation of launch vehicle booster engines.

Priorities in space for the USA

This article follows the story of Shuttle development, in the context of the history of the US space programme from Apollo to the Space Station. The Shuttle was chosen as one of a series of ‘space spectaculars’ and has proven to be prohibitively expensive and unreliable, practical only for a very limited number of specialized missions. The Space Station, too, cannot be economically supplied, even if the USA could afford to build it. The author concludes that NASA should cancel the Space Station and the replacement orbiter for Challenger , and engage on a major programme of launch vehicle development, independent of the US military. The aim should be a dramatic reduction of launch vehicle costs, making spaceflight practical, and a truly independent NASA which could restore the USA to space preeminence.

The transcost-model for launch vehicle cost estimation and its application to future systems analysis

The first part of the paper describes the structure of the analytical cost estimation model (1982 edition) for launch vehicle development, fabrication and launch operations cost. Especially the new approach for a cost assessment of operations cost including refurbishment (in case of reusable vehicles), direct and indirect operations is presented for discussion and subsequent improvements by introduction of more reference values. The model uses the Man-Year (MY) as cost unit which is independent from inflation and currency exchange rate changes. The second part of the paper deals with its application to future systems analysis and cost comparison with the example of a potential future European launcher (Post-Ariane-4) with 15 tons LEO payload capability: ten different two-stage launch vehicle concepts (expendable, semi-reusable and fully reusable) with storable and cryogenic propellants are analysed with respect to development cost and cost per launch. The key problem for a future European launch vehicle is the optimum solution between the (limited) development effort and the desired minimum launch cost. More advanced (partially) reusable systems could provide an essential reduction in cost per launch, require, however, a higher development effort. In such a case an analytical cost model based on realistic reference data can provide important data for the vehicle concept selection process.