Large-scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects Research Articles

Toward a Better Understanding of the Construction Impacts of a Light Rail System in Montréal, Canada

Large-scale transport infrastructure projects generate long-lasting changes in the built environment and alter the lives of nearby residents. It is crucial to understand public perceptions of public-transit projects and associated construction impacts, as they influence the social acceptance and eventual success of such projects. To characterize the construction-phase experiences of a new light rail in Montréal, Canada—the Réseau express métropolitain (REM)—we analyzed data from 1,236 respondents from the Greater Montréal region who self-reported ongoing construction activities near their homes. This study employs an exploratory factor and k-means cluster analysis to group residents by their different experiences and perceptions of the REM and its associated construction impacts. The analysis returned five clusters with distinct construction experiences: construction-concerned travelers, REM-critical respondents, neutral travelers, REM enthusiasts, and rerouted travelers. Subsequently, the acceptability of the impacts during the construction phase on each cluster is assessed by comparing perceptions of the impact of neighborhood change on their quality of life and their intention to use the REM. Finally, we derive targeted policy recommendations to help promote increased social acceptability of light-rail transit (LRT) projects, including mitigating disruptions in construction zones, public information campaigns, and inclusive decision-making processes. Findings from this study can benefit policymakers and transport planners as they aim to reduce the disruptions associated with the construction of LRT systems and promote increased social acceptability.

Significant risks that trigger cost overruns and delays in urban rail projects: a typical case study of Vietnam

PurposeUrban rail projects are typically large-scale transport infrastructure projects (megaprojects) which have many potential risks that can influence the strategic goals of owners. However, there is a paucity of studies which explore the impact of risks on both “urban rail” project time and cost together considering quantitative assessments. Therefore, this paper focuses on investigating critical risks and quantifying such risk impacts on urban railway project schedule and cost in practice.Design/methodology/approachA combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods comprising semi-interviews with five experts and a questionnaire survey of 132 professional respondents is used. The data were modeled using Monte Carlo Simulation to predict the probability of project schedule and cost.FindingsThe results show that 30 risk variables are categorized into seven main groups which have significant impacts on both project time and cost. Outstanding five risk variables were highlighted as follows: (1) project site clearance and land compensation; (2) design changes; (3) physical project resources; (4) contractors’ competencies and (5) project finance. Such findings were supported by Monte Carlo simulation which predicted in the worst case that the project may suffer 11.03 months’ delays and have cost overrun with a contingency of US$287.68 million.Originality/valueThis study expands our knowledge about time and cost contingency of urban metro railway implementation across developing economies and particularly within the context of Vietnam. Policymakers will not only gain an understanding about risk structure but will also recognize the significant impacts of critical risk through risk impact modeling and simulation. Such an approach provides insights into risk treatment priorities for planners so that they can proactively establish suitable strategies for risk mitigation in practice.

Impacts of Determining Economic Life of Large-Scale Infrastructure Projects on Their Economic Effectiveness

The paper deals with the refinement of the Cost-Benefit Analysis methodological procedure for the assessment of the economic effectiveness of large-scale transport infrastructure projects. The basic input is economic Cash Flow which consists of investment costs, operating income, operating expenses, societal benefits, and harms as well as the investment residual value. According to the methodological guidelines, the currently evaluated project period is considered to be 30 years including the investment phase starting in the first year of the construction, the relevant part of the operational phase, and the residual value of the project in the last year of the assessed period. The evaluation of the economic effectiveness of projects is largely influenced by the determination of the construction economic life. A procedure for calculating the residual value of the project while respecting the gradual implementation of partial constructions was established as part of the research. A case study based on the research sample of several investment construction projects of the highway sections in the Czech Republic demonstrates how this methodological procedure affects the economic effectiveness of the project.

Price Effects in the Evaluation of Investment Projects

In the context of globalisation, there is a need to assess the difference between domestic and world price effects as an im- portant component of the economic analysis of investment projects. We developed an integrated approach to measuring the differences between commercial and public efficien cy (indicati ng pri ce effec ts) and substantiat ing the applicat ion of specific mechanisms for implementing relevant projects based on the principles of public-private partnership. We propose to estimate price effects using three interrelated models: financial and economic model, input-output multi-regional model, and econometric model. The combination of these models allows analysing large investment projects considering their influence on the develop- ment trends of the global, national and regional economy. This methodology was tested on the example of a real regional project for the construction of the Eastern Siberia — Pacific Ocean (ESPO-2) oil pipeline. The results show that the share of price effects amounted to more than 35 % of net present value within the framework of public efficiency, confirming their high significance. Tax price effects have the largest share in the structure of the price effects. Indirect price effects of the considered project are less significant. The research results have confirmed that the identification of indicators of public efficiency and in-depth analysis of price effects increase the validity of the assessment of regional infrastructure projects. In the future, we plan to use the proposed methods as an integral part of a comprehensive assessment of large-scale production, transport and research infrastructure projects.

Curbing Poor-Quality in Large-Scale Transport Infrastructure Projects

Poor-quality remains a pervasive challenge for the delivery of large-scale transport infrastructure projects. Typically, it manifests as nonconformance and often requires rework. If, however, a nonconformance goes unidentified, then an asset's integrity can be jeopardized and put people's lives at risk. Hence, governments should shoulder the responsibility for quality. In practice, however, there has been a proclivity for governments to place fixed-price contracts and high-level quality risks on contractors. Yet, there is a dearth of research that has addressed the issue of poor-quality within large-scale transport infrastructure projects. In this article, we attempt to fill this gap and adopt an illustrative case-study approach to garner an understanding as to why poor-quality manifests during the construction of large-scale transport projects. We examine the issue of poor-quality in three high-profile rail transit projects using the gray literature: 1) Delhi Airport Metro Express (India); 2) Honolulu Rail Transit (United States); and 3) Sydney Skytrain (Australia). Then, drawing on empirical observations from two road projects, a highway corridor and a busway, we bring to the fore the poor-quality issue that pervades practice. To curb poor-quality, we suggest that the public and private sectors work collaboratively and share risks to ensure the benefits and value of an asset can be realized. To facilitate the process of collaboration and sharing of quality risks, we propose a Standard Life-cycle Quality Assessment system that can be used to ensure projects conform to standards and requirements.

Shared leadership, value and risks in large scale transport projects: Re-calibrating procurement policy for post COVID-19

Before the 2019 Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) outbreak, the Australian Commonwealth and State Governments invested significantly in the upgrade and construction of large-scale transport infrastructure projects (>AU$500 million). However, two trends prevail in Australia. Concessionaires/contractors face a requirement for fixed-price contracts, high levels of risk, and low margins. Concomitantly, an increasing number of projects have experienced significant cost blowouts, with adverse impacts on both the public and private sectors. Calls for the public sector to engage with collaborative procurement approaches to deliver large-scale transport projects, however, have gone unheeded. In this paper, we critically review existing policies and practices used to procure large-scale transport projects and examine the challenges they pose in a post-COVID-19 world. We suggest that the public and private sectors need to work in unison to overcome the significant economic hurdles that COVID-19 presents to the nation's infrastructure demands. We then proffer that governments need to re-calibrate their procurement policies to future-proof their large-scale transport infrastructure projects. To facilitate the process of re-calibration, we develop a theoretical procurement framework for consideration based on the concepts of shared leadership, value creation, and risks. It is envisaged that our procurement framework will provide a platform for engendering economic value and accounting for all-important societal costs and benefits in a world post pandemic.

Risk Assessment for Large-Scale Transport Infrastructure Projects

The identification of risks in the planning phase of a project and the arrangement of impact values has become a fundamental basis of today’s various construction projects. Despite robust and well-planned projects, unexpected problems will likely emerge in any stage of the project if possible risks are not identified and assessed beforehand. Therefore, this process has become a requisite in increasing the success as well as minimizing the problems of a project. Large-scale transport infrastructure projects (LSTIPs), technologically equipped projects, meet the essential needs of the recent era but also bring about numerous risks such as financial, technical, managerial, political, economic, natural or legal. Hence, being exposed to such risks in the planning and construction stage of LSTIPs, could lead to negative consequences in the fate of the project. This study aims to develop a conceptual framework which provides a pathway for the planning phase and to offer risk lists and their priority orders that reinforce the construction phase. These aims were achieved by identifying the risk factors that could arise in European and Middle Eastern LSTIPs and detecting significances of the risks according to these types of projects. Data collection was performed through a substantial review of literature and a questionnaire conducted to contracting firms and civil engineering consultancies operating in Europe and the Middle East. According to the findings, the comparison between the leading risks encountered in European and in Middle Eastern LSTIPs revealed that two of the regions were confronted with both similar and different risks. Europe and the Middle East’s foremost common risk factor is the financial strength of the client listed under the financial category. When regions are considered individually, Europe gives prior importance to the resource availability risk factor in the economic category whereas increased material cost located under the same category is the primary risk factor for the Middle East. As a result, the data obtained from this research study could be deployed as a standardized risk list in the planning stage of forthcoming LSTIPs as well as a guideline for the assessment phase of priority orders. Furthermore, this study suggests a further and detailed investigation on mitigating risks that occur in LSTIPs.

An ANP Model for Risk Assessment in Large-Scale Transport Infrastructure Projects

Large-scale transport infrastructure projects (LSTIPs) are developed structures that emerged from the essential necessity of fast-paced and convenient transportation in gradually growing populations. Multiple risks, such as technical, financial, economic, political, construction, managerial, natural and environmental and legal risks, may be encountered in LSTIPs. This study aims to list these possible risks in order of priority for European and Middle Eastern LSTIPs by means of an analytical network process method. The priority orders were obtained separately for Europe and the Middle East, and comparisons were made between these regions. The results highlight that Europe and the Middle East share both common and distinctive risk factors in the orders of priority. “The financial strength of the client” ranked as the foremost common risk factor for Europe and the Middle East received a priority value of 13.37 and 11.54%, respectively. However, salient differences in the findings revealed that “change in scope of work” and “water pollution” ranked as the second leading risk factors have priority values of 5.48% for Europe and 4.55% for the Middle East, respectively. To further support the priority orders achieved in this study, two different case studies were conducted. The priority orders achieved in this study could be used as a guideline for identifying and sequencing the risks in planning stages of similar projects conducted in various countries. Future related studies could be juxtaposed with the results of this study to analyse the alterations of priority orders that will have occurred in the course of time.

Policy on Sustainable Transport in England: The Case of High Speed 2

The achievement of sustainable transport is often a clearly stated objective of government policy, but in England there is no National Sustainable Transport Strategy (NSTS). This paper outlines the nature of sustainable transport arguing for a strategic approach that takes account of the means to reduce travel through substitution and shorter trips, as well as making best use of all modes and reducing reliance on carbon-based energy sources. It reviews the recent austerity phase of UK transport policy (2010-2015) where revenue support has been cut, but capital expenditure has increased, and it comments on the difficulties of making decisions on large scale transport infrastructure projects in the absence of a NSTS. The recent policy statements and initiatives on transport and sustainability are covered, looking backwards and forwards. It then takes the case of High Speed 2 (HS2) and identifies five main narratives in the debates over the arguments in support of this huge investment. It seems that sustainable transport has not been a central part of that debate, and there is a need to reframe the discussion on HS2, as part of a NSTS.

Unbuilding the City: Writing Demolition

Unbuilding the City: Writing Demolition

Theory and background of multi-criteria analysis: Toward a policy-led approach to mega transport infrastructure project appraisal

The aims of this paper are twofold. Firstly, to present a review and critical analysis of the varying forms and functions of Multi-Criteria Analysis presented in the literature, and secondly, drawing from this, to introduce methods and processes by which policy leadership can be introduced into such processes for the appraisal of large-scale transport infrastructure projects to form a policy-led multi-criteria analysis.Following the discussion in the first paper of this Special Issue, ‘Presenting the Case for the Application of Multi-Criteria Analysis to Mega Transport Project Infrastructure Appraisal’, this contribution commences by outlining further the generic features and challenges of multi-criteria analysis approaches to project appraisal whilst emphasizing the difference among various frameworks and attendant processes for such approaches. It also highlights the important role/value of the multi-criteria mapping of stakeholder policies and agendas affecting project decision-making as a means of defining and scoping the boundaries of the project exercise under study and the trade-off decision-spaces for stakeholder dialogues and negotiations in their search to arrive at mutually agreed actions and outcomes. The paper discusses how multi-criteria analysis frameworks can be tailor-designed for particular agencies and stakeholders developed around problems, challenges and issues. This is done in the acknowledgement that such exercises, especially when applied to mega infrastructure project appraisal, typically attract a multiple-institutional response and where ultimately an institutional leader (or partnership of stakeholders) exists/emerges that impose its/their priorities on others. Alternatively, the approach can be tailor-made for specific institutions with its imbedded hierarchy of policies and priorities that frame the stakeholder decision space within which other parties can participate and trade off interests.The first part of the paper highlights the important role of scenarios of policy-making contexts and policy leadership indicating the new risks, uncertainties and opportunities these may offer in multi-criteria analysis exercises, indicating that some/many past processes have been conducted outside of any real reference to such matters. In so doing, such applications have them silently and implicitly adopt scenarios and policy assumptions that are not transparent frequently reflecting, it is alleged, ‘business as usual’ circumstances in contexts when the signs are very much that these trends will not/cannot prevail. The authors contend that without explicit policy leadership there is a danger that certain institutional stakeholder priorities will be imposed over others by the most powerful without adequate dialogue. Understanding that this matters a great deal in contexts when project stakeholder powers shifts occur is very significant. Examples of such circumstances are when national governments become, less or more powerful and economically affluent, when relative legislative and regulation powers become less or more binding and powerful, and when a major private sector investor upon which a project depends goes bankrupt.The second half of the paper builds on these observations to offer a generic multi-criteria analysis framework and attendant processes that imbed policy leadership firmly within multi-stakeholder decision-making (termed Policy-led Multi-criteria Analysis). The framework developed is to be applied to mega transport projects via the use of suitable appraisal criteria in the pursuit of sustainable development goals, which seek to address both quantitative and qualitative dimensions and concerns of multiple stakeholders, with particular emphasis on the processes required to identify and incorporate suitable policy leadership, including feedback between appraisal and policy.

Land use change emission scenarios: anticipating a forest transition process in the Brazilian Amazon.

Following an intense occupation process that was initiated in the 1960s, deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004, stabilizing around 6000 km(2) yr(-1) in the last 5 years. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Nevertheless, other threats remain, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large-scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We propose three updated qualitative and quantitative land-use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, including a normative 'Sustainability' scenario in which we envision major socio-economic, institutional, and environmental achievements in the region. We developed an innovative spatially explicit modelling approach capable of representing alternative pathways of the clear-cut deforestation, secondary vegetation dynamics, and the old-growth forest degradation. We use the computational models to estimate net deforestation-driven carbon emissions for the different scenarios. The region would become a sink of carbon after 2020 in a scenario of residual deforestation (~1000 km(2) yr(-1)) and a change in the current dynamics of the secondary vegetation - in a forest transition scenario. However, our results also show that the continuation of the current situation of relatively low deforestation rates and short life cycle of the secondary vegetation would maintain the region as a source of CO2 - even if a large portion of the deforested area is covered by secondary vegetation. In relation to the old-growth forest degradation process, we estimated average gross emission corresponding to 47% of the clear-cut deforestation from 2007 to 2013 (using the DEGRAD system data), although the aggregate effects of the postdisturbance regeneration can partially offset these emissions. Both processes (secondary vegetation and forest degradation) need to be better understood as they potentially will play a decisive role in the future regional carbon balance.

Evaluating Proposed Transportation Infrastructure Projects in Metro Manila Using the Transport Co-Benefit Analysis

Several large scale transportation infrastructure projects have been proposed, with several already under construction, in Metro Manila by the current Administration such as the elevated expressway above the PNR line also known as the NLEx-SLEx connector, the NAIA expressway, the CALA and Lakeshore expressway projects as well as the proposed light rail transit (LRT) line 1 South Extension, bus rapid transit (BRT) lines, subway, among others. Some of these transportation infrastructure projects are for possible Public-Private Partnership (PPP) funding. Aside from the National Government's proposals, several private groups have also proposed transportation infrastructure projects in Metro Manila. This research analyzed and evaluated the impact of these proposed transport infrastructure projects on urban travel using the Transport Co-Benefit Analysis as developed by the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES). This research provides a macroscopic analysis regarding which proposed infrastructure projects would be beneficial to the people of Metro Manila.

Debate: Multi-criteria framework needed to assess alternative financing methods for large-scale projects

An historical appraisal of large-scale transport infrastructure projects shows that the choice of financing instrument has rarely been the outcome of a formal and systematic economic appraisal proc...

Institutions and the governance of transport infrastructure projects: Some insight from the planning and construction of the CentrePort Canada Way

The paper investigates the dynamics between institutions and the governance of transport infrastructure projects, focusing on the planning and construction process of the CentrePort Canada Way (CCW) project. The CCW is regarded as a pivotal project in helping CentrePort Canada, the major inland port in Winnipeg and the province of Manitoba, to become a major inland transport and logistics hub in catalyzing and promoting international trade between Manitoba, Canada and the world. It focuses on how institutions have caused paradigm shifts in the planning culture of infrastructure projects in Manitoba, notably the Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation (MIT)—how such shifts have transformed its initial idea, financial support, planning and construction of the CCW project. We hypothesize that institutions have influenced in an important manner on the direction of planning and development the CCW project, in both positive and negative ways. The paper offers insight to the roles of institutions on the planning and development process on large-scale transport infrastructure projects.

Breaking Carbon Lock-In: Path Dependencies in Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects

The central focus of this paper is to highlight the ways in which path dependencies and increasing returns (network effects) serve to reinforce carbon lock-in in large-scale road transportation infrastructure projects. Breaking carbon lock-in requires drastic changes in the way we plan future transportation infrastructure projects, and documentary evidence presented here from the metropolitan regions of Copenhagen, Denmark and Portland, USA, indicate that there may be a discontinuity in the system of automobility (Urry, 2004), thereby increasing the likelihood that such drastic measures may in fact be successfully realized.

Territorial cohesion impacts of high-speed rail under different zoning systems

Large-scale transport infrastructure projects such as high-speed rail (HSR) produce significant effects on the spatial distribution of accessibility. These effects, commonly known as territorial cohesion effects, are receiving increasing attention in the research literature. However, there is little empirical research into the sensitivity of these cohesion results to methodological issues such as the definition of the limits of the study area or the zoning system. In a previous paper (Ortega et al., 2012), we investigated the influence of scale issues, comparing the cohesion results obtained at four different planning levels. This paper makes an additional contribution to our research with the investigation of the influence of zoning issues. We analyze the extent to which changes in the size of the units of analysis influence the measurement of spatial inequalities.The methodology is tested by application to the Galician (north-western) HSR corridor, with a length of nearly 670km, included in the Spanish PEIT (Strategic Transport and Infrastructure Plan) 2005–2020. We calculated the accessibility indicators for the Galician HSR corridor and assessed their corresponding territorial distribution. We used five alternative zoning systems depending on the method of data representation used (vector or raster), and the level of detail (cartographic accuracy or cell size). Our results suggest that the choice between a vector-based and raster-based system has important implications. The vector system produces a higher mean accessibility value and a more polarized accessibility distribution than raster systems. The increased pixel size of raster-based systems tends to give rise to higher mean accessibility values and a more balanced accessibility distribution. Our findings strongly encourage spatial analysts to acknowledge that the results of their analyses may vary widely according to the definition of the units of analysis.

A methodology for evaluating environmental co-benefits in the transport sector: application to the Delhi metro

This paper presents a methodology to measure the environmental co-benefits of transport initiatives, defined here as carbon emissions in conjunction with local air pollution. An evaluation tool was developed and then tested on the case of the Delhi metro. The metro is an extensive rail project spanning the Indian capital, which is also the world's first rail based Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project. However, it has also been a flashpoint in urban policy-making in the city in recent years. This analysis identifies the co-benefits based on the current situation as well potential co-benefits based on increased ridership and altering mode share contributions. The paper then discusses the challenges faced in the quantification process and the practical implications of achieving increased co-benefits. The paper highlights issues of data quality as well as data access, whilst identifying that factors peripheral to the project itself can have a critical effect in achieving co-benefits from large scale transport infrastructure projects in developing countries.

Explaining cost overruns of large-scale transportation infrastructure projects using a signalling game

Strategic behaviour is one of the main explanations for cost overruns. It can be theoretically supported by agency theory, in which strategic behaviour is the result of asymmetric information between the principal and agent. This article gives a formal account of this relation by a signalling game. This is a game with incomplete information which considers the way in which parties anticipate upon other parties’ behaviour in choosing a course of action. The game shows how cost overruns are the result of an inappropriate signal. This makes it impossible for the principal to distinguish between the types of agents, and hence, allows for strategic behaviour. It is illustrated how cost overruns can be avoided by means of two policy measures, e.g. an accountability structure and benchmarking.

Characteristics of cost overruns for Dutch transport infrastructure projects and the importance of the decision to build and project phases

Using a methodology similar to that used the in the worldwide research, the cost performance of Dutch large-scale transport infrastructure projects is determined. In the Netherlands, cost overruns are as common as cost underruns but because cost overruns are larger than cost underruns projects on average have a cost overrun of 16.5%. The focus on one country further enabled to consider cost overruns during different project development phases. It turned out that in the Netherlands the majority of the cost overrun occurs in the pre-construction phase (the period between the formal decision to build and the start of construction). The frequency as well as the magnitude of pre-construction cost overrun is significantly higher than in the construction phase. The used methodology of calculating cost overruns does however not take lock-in into account. This phenomenon shows that the real decision to build was taken much earlier in the decision-making process. Since estimated costs are usually lower during these earlier stages, the cost overruns based on this real decision to build are likely to be much higher. Cost overruns presented in studies are therefore often underestimated and the problem of cost overruns is much larger than we think.