Overview: Recovery to pick up again after weak Q3 ▀ We still think the Q3 soft patch for the global recovery was temporary and expect a pick‐up in growth in Q4. As a result, our world GDP growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are unchanged at 5.7% and 4.5% respectively. ▀ But the global recovery remains volatile due to supply‐side problems. The slowdown in q/q GDP growth in Q3 from 1.4% to 0.9% was a response to disruption, especially in Asia, from higher Delta cases as well as ongoing supply‐chain bottlenecks constraining production in some sectors. ▀ With global Covid cases now well below their August peak and the global composite PMI rising further in October from the August low, we see a renewed re‐acceleration in GDP growth in Q4 this year. ▀ Although our forecast for GDP growth in 2022 is lower than the likely 2021 outturn, this year's strength is partly down to favourable base effects. Indeed, the average q/q pace of growth next year is expected to be in line with that in 2021. ▀ Admittedly, the easiest gains from re‐opening economies have already occurred and the exceptional monetary and fiscal policy support provided in 2020 and 2021 is beginning to be reversed. But at the same time, labour income growth is set to be strong and households in the advanced economies continue to sit on a large pile of excess savings that will eventually be partially unwound. ▀ Despite a further upward revision to our world CPI inflation forecast for 2022 to 3.9% from 3.6% last month, we expect it to fall back from the likely 4.2% rise this year as energy prices ease and higher costs associated with supply‐chain bottlenecks dissipate. We forecast inflation will fall from a peak of about 5% in Q4 2021 to 2.8% by end‐2022, below the 2019 average of 3.2%. This will boost households' spending power and will also ease pressure on central banks to tighten policy aggressively.