Land Use Change Research Articles

Evaluation of the natural water vulnerability of watersheds through the integration of GIS and Fuzzy AHP.

Key factors, such as climate change and changes in land use and cover, amplify stress on water resources, making them vulnerable. The need to ensure these resources in sufficient quantity and quality to sustain their multiple uses highlights the relevance of determining their natural vulnerability to reverse extreme scenarios. Within the boundaries of a watershed, its assessment can contribute to addressing the challenges of the region's water security. In this context, this study aims to evaluate the natural water vulnerability in three major watersheds in Brazil, which are essential for supplying water for human consumption and industrial activities: the Doce, Paraíba do Sul, and Tietê river basins. The methodology employed involved the development of a Natural Water Vulnerability Index (NWVI), conceived from a multicriteria decision analysis approach using the Fuzzy AHP method. This index was integrated into Geographic Information Systems (GIS), allowing spatial analysis through five critical environmental factors: precipitation, land use and cover, elevation, slope, and soil texture. The results showed that precipitation is the most relevant factor, followed by land use and cover. The analysis revealed an increase in vulnerability in areas near the outlets of the basins. The Tietê river basin proved to be the most vulnerable, while the Doce river presented many areas with very high levels of vulnerability. This information indicates the need for intensive management strategies in the most vulnerable areas and the importance of continuously monitoring the less vulnerable areas to prevent future increases in vulnerability.

A Century of Water–Socioecological Dynamics and Evolutionary Stages in Lake Victoria Basin, East Africa

Understanding the feedback relationships and evolutionary stages of water–socioecological systems (W-SESs) is crucial for achieving sustainable development in basins. This study focuses on the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) in East Africa, where population growth, rapid urbanization, and developing industrialization have intensified water resource supply–demand conflicts, leading to socioecological issues such as water environmental degradation and ecological conflicts. The objective of this research is to develop a theoretical framework for the Lake Victoria Basin W-SESs (LVB-WSESs) based on the SES framework, identify the main drivers and critical nodes in the evolution of the LVB-WSESs, analyze the root causes of water–society–ecology conflicts, and explore the feedback relationships and evolutionary stages of the LVB-WSESs over the past century. To achieve this, we employed an integrated qualitative and quantitative analysis of historical data combined with tipping point detection to systematically assess the dynamics of the LVB-WSESs. Our findings show that, under the drivers of climate change (with a 1 °C increase in annual temperature since 1920s), population growth (a six-fold increase since 1920s), economic development, land-use change, urbanization, and species invasion, the basin’s demand for water resources, water environments, and aquatic ecosystems has continually increased, leading to the gradual degradation and imbalance of the basin’s ecological functions. The evolution of the LVB-WSESs can be divided into five stages against the historical backdrop of societal transitions from colonial to independent democratic systems: the stable resource utilization period, the slow environmental change period (1920s–1960s), the rapid environmental imbalance period (1960s–1990s), the transition period from environmental imbalance to protection (1990s–2015), and the reconstruction period of socioecological equilibrium. This study not only enhances understanding of the long-term dynamics of the LVB-WSESs but also provides practical implications for sustainable water management in similar basins globally. It enriches the local practice of global sustainable development theories, providing new theoretical perspectives and case references for future watershed sustainable management. By identifying critical drivers and evolutionary stages, our findings can inform policy decisions and interventions to mitigate socioecological conflicts and achieve basin-level sustainability.

Water-Quality Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Their Drivers for Two Urban Streams in Indianapolis

Water quality in urban streams is critical for the health of aquatic and human life, as it impacts both the environment and water availability. The strong impacts of changing climate and land use on water quality necessitate a better understanding of how stream water quality changes over space and time. To this end, four key water-quality parameters—Escherichia coli (E. coli), nitrate (NO3−), sulfate (SO42−), and chloride (Cl−)—were collected at 12 sites along Fall Creek and Pleasant Run streams in Indianapolis, Indiana USA from 2003 to 2021 on a seasonal basis: March, July, and October each year. Two-way ANOVA tests were used to determine the impacts of seasonality and location on these parameters. Correlation and RDA (redundancy analysis) were used to determine the importance of climatic drivers. Linear regressions were used to quantify the impacts of land-use types on water quality integrating buffer zone size and sub-watershed analysis. Strong seasonal variations of the water-quality parameters were found. March had higher levels of NO3−, SO42−, and Cl− than other months. July had the highest E. coli concentrations compared to March and October. Seven-days antecedent snow and precipitation were found to be significantly related to Cl− and log10(E. coli) and can explain up to 53% and 31% of their variations, respectively. Spatially, urban built-up land in a 1000 m buffer around the sampling sites was positively correlated with the log10(E. coli) variation, while lawn cover was positively related to NO3− concentrations within 500 m buffers. Conversely, NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) values were negatively related to all variables. In conclusion, E. coli is more impacted by higher precipitation and urban land coverage, which could be related to more combined sewer overflow events in July. Cl− peaking in March and its relationship with snow indicate salt runoff during snow melting events. NO3− and SO42− increases are likely due to fertilizer input from residential lawns near streams. This suggests that Indianapolis stream water-quality changes are influenced by both changing climate and land-cover/-muse types.

Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Prediction of Habitat Quality Changes in the Poyang Lake Region, China

The terrestrial spatial patterns were affected by human activities, primarily on regional land use (LU) changes, with habitat quality (HQ) serving as a prerequisite for achieving regional sustainable development. Assessing and predicting the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of regional LU changes and HQ is critical for formulating regional LU strategies and enhancing ecosystem service functions. Using the Poyang Lake Region as our research object, this research employs LU data and utilizes the ‘InVEST’ model and hot-spot analysis to quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal changes in HQ during 2000–2020. The PLUS model is then applied to predict LU and HQ trends from 2020 to 2050. The findings are as follows: (1). From 2000 to 2020, the areas of forestland, shrubland, sparse woodland, paddy fields, and dryland in the Poyang Lake Region showed a decreasing trend, with reductions mainly occurring in urban expansion zones such as Nanchang City and largely converted into urban construction land. (2). Since 2000, HQ in the Poyang Lake Region has shown a slight retrogressive evolution, with significant spatial heterogeneity. HQ spatially exhibits a pattern of improvement radiating outward from major cities. (3). Predictions for 2030 to 2050 indicate that HQ in the Poyang Lake Region will continue to decline, with the most significant downward trends occurring in urban built-up areas and their peripheries. The spatiotemporal characteristics reveal an expansion ring around Poyang Lake and an east–west urban expansion corridor linking Pingxiang, Yichun, Xinyu, Nanchang, Fuzhou, Yingtan, and Shangrao. This study provided a research basis for LU direction and urban planning policies in the Poyang Lake Region and its surrounding areas, while also contributing to the construction of agrarian security patterns and the enhancement of ecosystem service levels in the region.

Predicting the spatial pattern of land use change and carbon storage in Xinjiang: A Markov-FLUS-InVEST model approach.

Land-use changes significantly influence carbon storage capacity by altering the structure, layout, and function of terrestrial ecosystems. Predicting the relationship between future land-use changes and carbon storage is essential for optimizing land-use patterns and making rational, ecology-based decisions. Using multi-period land-use data from Xinjiang, we analyzed the spatial pattern of carbon storage. Based on land-use change patterns in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020, we coupled the Markov-Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS)-Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to simulate and predict land-use spatial patterns in Xinjiang for 2035 under two scenarios: natural growth and ecological protection. Carbon storage and its spatiotemporal dynamic changes under these scenarios were evaluated, and the Geodetector was employed to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of carbon storage from a statistical perspective, revealing the influence of various driving factors. The results showed that: (1) From 2000-2020, grassland and unused land were the primary land-use types in Xinjiang, accounting for over 28.85% and 60.17% of the total area, respectively. By 2035, cropland, forest, water, and construction land areas are expected to increase, while grassland and unused land areas are projected to decrease. Under the ecological protection scenario, cropland, forest land, and grassland-major main contributors to carbon storage-will be effectively conserved to some extent. (2) From 2000 to 2020, Xinjiang's carbon storage capacity exhibited an overall increasing trend, with a cumulative increase of 137.515×105 t and a growth rate of 1.58%. However, this capacity is projected to decline by 2035, with an estimated reduction of 168.344×105 t compared to that in 2020. Ecological protection is anticipated to mitigate this decline, increasing carbon storage by 13.227×105 t relative to the natural growth scenario. (3) Geodetector analysis indicated that land-use types had the greatest carbon storage explanatory power for carbon storage (q = 0.80), followed by soil types (q = 0.41), net primary productivity (q = 0.32), and geomorphology (q = 0.22). This highlights land-use types as the most critical environmental factor determining the spatial pattern of carbon storage. These findings provide scientific insights and recommendations for the sustainable development management and the enhancement of carbon storage functions.

Environmental Governance in Handling Flood Problems in Makassar City

Environmental management or Environmental Governance is a comprehensive approach that involves various stakeholders in decision-making, policy formulation, and implementation of strategies to address environmental problems. In the context of Makassar City, this approach is crucial in managing the increasing risk of flooding due to climate change, changes in land use, and population growth. This study highlights the effectiveness of flood management policies based on community participation, information transparency, and coordination between institutions. The survey results show that the majority of the community feels that flood management policies are not yet effective, with low levels of participation. In addition, the lack of transparency and coordination between institutions are major obstacles in the implementation of flood mitigation policies. This study recommends improving the participatory and collaborative approach in Environmental Governance, by integrating ecosystem-based policies, strengthening the role of the community, and increasing the use of sustainable infrastructure to create city resilience to future flood disasters.

Impact of Land Use Change on Road Safety (Case study: Land Use Change in Bonorejo, Salatiga City)

The development of urban areas is seen as quite rapid in line with the development of community demands for public facilities and social facilities for activities and businesses related to offices, shopping centers, education, and so on. The development of the area needs to be measured, namely how much land use changes to traffic violations around locations that experience land use changes, how much influence land use changes have on traffic accidents around locations that experience land use changes and recommendations for improving road safety around locations that have changed land use. land use change on road safety, namely increasing V/C ratio and decreasing LOS (level of service) on road sections around the land use change location and high levels of speed (above the maximum speed limit) on road sections around the land use change location. land. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the implementation of the recommendations at each stage.

The land-use land-cover change–emerging infectious disease nexus reconsidered

The land-use land-cover change–emerging infectious disease nexus reconsidered

Воздействие транспортной системы на землепользование по опыту России и зарубежных стран

The article presents the results of observations of the impact of the development of the transport system on land use based on the experience of Russia, East Asia, Europe and the United States of America. In the modern world, the transport system plays an important role in the socio-economic development of territories, improving the level of road safety, reducing the negative impact of transport on the environment and climate. Three models were considered to assess the impact of the transport system on land use. Each identifies factors that affect both land-use change and the need for new roads and road infrastructure. Studies have shown that transport and land-use planning requires integrated methods that take into account social, economic and environmental factors. The relevance of this study is due to the need to optimize land management with a balance between the needs of the transport system, rational use of land resources and social infrastructure. Currently, Russia has a transport strategy that until 2035 defines key positions, including increasing spatial connectivity and transport accessibility of territories, as well as increasing the mobility of the population. The analysis of the experience of foreign countries makes it possible to identify the most successful practices in the development of transport systems and the factors of their impact on land use, as well as to take them into account in territorial planning, which will contribute to the economic development of regions, the emergence of new industrial centers, without the risk of reducing agricultural land and causing damage to especially valuable fertile soils.

Predicting and simulating urban expansion patterns in the Asan watershed, Uttarakhand, India using the SLEUTH model for sustainable land management

Urban growth monitoring and assessment are crucial for sustainable long-term planning and the efficient utilization of natural resources. Unplanned urbanisation poses risks such as pollution and environmental disruption, emphasizing the need for proactive management. Changes in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) with time indicate ongoing urbanisation trends. This study aims to predict and simulate urban growth in the Asan watershed, Uttarakhand, India, through 2040 using the SLEUTH model. The SLEUTH model (Slope, Land use, Exclusion, Urban, Transportation, Hillshade) grounded in Cellular Automata (CA) principles is applied to analyse and project LULC changes from 2016 to 2040, assessing their impacts on the surrounding areas. The research utilizes primary datasets including the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and LULC maps, to forecast future urban expansion. Recent methodologies prioritize the detection of LULC changes through multispectral satellite images, emphasizing factors like radiometric efficiency, spatial uniformity, and climatic conditions. The predicted urban growth output revealed that the projected increase of urban area by 2040 will be 67.73 km2 from 36.5 km2 in 2016 with an increment of 31.23 km2. Additionally, by 2040, urban settlement is expected to occupy around 9.5% of the total watershed area, an increase of 4.3% from the urban area observed in 2016. The study aims to guide infrastructure planning and promote sustainable development practices by comprehending urban dynamics, growth patterns, and resource management.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Change Along with Ecosystem Service Value for the Lanzhou–Xining Urban Agglomeration

Research on the characteristics of land use change in urban agglomerations and its influences on ecosystem service value has important theoretical significance and practical value for supporting spatial development and guaranteeing ecological security. Located in the upper reaches of China’s Yellow River, the Lanzhou–Xining urban agglomeration is situated in the mosaic of the transition from the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau to the Loess Plateau. It is a substantial industrial base and economic region of western China. It is also the essence of a relatively concentrated population and dense cities. It is not only a key development area but also an essential ecological barrier in western China, shouldering the important responsibility of ensuring a win-win situation for both economic and social development and ecological and environmental protection. This research takes the Lanzhou–Xining urban agglomeration as a case region, investigates the characteristics of changes in land use and ecosystem service value from 2000 to 2020, and applies the PLUS model to emulate land use changes and ecosystem service value in 2030 in three scenarios: the natural development scenario, cultivated land protection scenario, and ecological conservation scenario. The results indicate that: (1) The land use type of the Lanzhou–Xining urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2020 was dominated by grassland, accounting for 60.32~61.25% of the gross area. The reciprocal transfer between cultivated land and grassland was the most significant, and the expansion of construction land mainly took over cultivated land and grassland, accounting for 58.23% and 34.84%. (2) As a result of ecological rehabilitation projects and the continuous increase of water areas, the ecosystem service value of Lanzhou–Xining urban agglomeration continued to increase between 2000 and 2020, with a cumulative total of 56.84 × 108 yuan and a growth rate of 2.67%. Grassland donated the most to the ecosystem service value, constituting 52.56~53.44%. Among the individual ecosystem service values, hydrological regulation and climate regulation contributed the most, and together accounted for 50.86~51.69% of the ecosystem service value. (3) Under the natural development scenario, unrestricted urban sprawl has taken possession of cultivated land and grassland. Under the cultivated land protection scenario, cultivated land has maintained a relatively stable level while construction has been subject to certain constraints. Under the ecological conservation scenario, ecological land has been largely protected and the encroachment of construction onto ecological land has been curbed. (4) Of the three scenarios, only the ecological conservation scenario saw an increase in the ecosystem service values compared to 2020. The reduction in grassland and water area was the main cause for the decrease of the ecosystem service values in the natural development scenario and cultivated land protection scenario. The results can supply a solid foundation for decision-making for future development of the Lanzhou–Xining urban agglomeration and the rational use of land, as well as offer references for the ecological conservation and high-quality development of urban agglomerations in the upper reaches of the Yellow River.

Land Use Pattern, Crop Diversification and Crop Combination Regions: A District-level Study in Rajasthan

Land use is changing in favour of agriculture as the population is growing and dietary preferences are changing. In the agriculture system, crop diversification is a crucial risk management strategy. This article traces Rajasthan’s changing land use pattern from 1966–1967 to 2016–2017, along with changing cropping patterns and intensity. The crop combination regions were also identified in the state using Rafiullah’s ‘Maximum Positive Deviation Method’. Further, this article delves into crop diversification in the state and examines the determinants of diversification through the ‘Generalised Least Square (GLS) technique’. This article shows that in these 50 years, the net cropped area in the state is expanding at the expense of barren and uncultivated land and cultivable wasteland due to the proliferation in groundwater irrigation. The net cropped area increased from 14.5 million hectare (ha) to 18 million hectare (ha)in these 50 years, while the gross cropped area almost doubled in this period. The cropping intensity in the state increased from 100 per cent to nearly 140 per cent. The share of cereals declined in the cropped area, while oilseeds increased by almost four times. The crop combination in the districts is becoming more complex. Interestingly, agricultural diversification is increasing in the districts of Rajasthan. As per the results of GLS, the significant determinants of diversification in the state are landholding size, irrigation and fertiliser consumption.

Advancing vegetation classification of grassland ecosystems across Asia: current status and way forward

This editorial introduces the Special Collection “Grasslands of Asia” in Vegetation Classification and Survey, highlighting the urgent need for systematic vegetation classification across Asia’s diverse grassland ecosystems. Despite their vast ecological, climatic, and cultural significance, Asian grasslands remain underrepresented in global vegetation studies. This gap results from uneven research capacities, methodological fragmentation, limited data accessibility, and complex geopolitical barriers. Grasslands across Asia, which include both natural types like steppes, savannas, and alpine meadows and semi-natural ecosystems, face escalating threats including climate change, overgrazing, land-use changes, habitat fragmentation, and socio-political disruptions. Inspired by discussions at the inaugural Asian Grassland Conference in 2022 and the establishment of the Asian Regional Section of the International Association for Vegetation Science (IAVS), this Special Collection aims to promote standardized vegetation classification methods, enhance cross-regional data sharing, and foster international collaboration. Although only seven contributions from West and Middle Asia were ultimately included, they significantly advance the understanding of grassland typologies in these regions. Moving forward, coordinated efforts at local, regional, and continental scales are essential, supported by platforms such as the Asian Regional Section of IAVS. Strengthening vegetation classification frameworks and regional databases will bridge existing methodological gaps and provide critical support for conservation planning, sustainable management, and biodiversity research in Asia’s grassland ecosystems. Abbreviations: China-VCS = China Vegetation Classification System; EDGG = Eurasian Dry Grassland Group; GIVD = Global Index of Vegetation-Plot Databases; IAVS = International Association for Vegetation Science; IVC = International Vegetation Classification; TWINSPAN = Two Way Indicator Species Analysis.

Distribution and sources of fallout 137Cs and 239+240Pu in equatorial and Southern Hemisphere reference soils

Abstract. Past nuclear weapons testing (NWT) and nuclear power plant (NPP) accidents have resulted in the ubiquitous deposition of radionuclides in the environment. These fallout radionuclides (FRNs) are considered the privileged markers (“golden spikes”) of the Anthropocene stratigraphic layers. Their deposition in the 1950s coincided with the “Great Acceleration”, which is characterized by large-scale shifts in the Earth's systems, including increased land-use change and soil degradation. Among the FRNs deposited globally, 137Cs has been the most commonly used to assess soil erosion and/or the chronology of sediment deposition, while 239+240Pu is an alternative soil erosion tracer and chronological marker that has been increasingly used due to a number of advantages. We compiled 137Cs and 239+240Pu data published from undisturbed (so-called “reference”) soils in the equatorial and Southern Hemisphere regions to build a database within the framework of the AVATAR (A reVised dATing framework for quantifying geomorphological processes during the Anthropocene) project. Using this database, named the AVATAR-Soils Database, we determined the distribution of 137Cs and 239+240Pu inventories in equatorial and Southern Hemisphere soils, along with the relative contributions of different fallout nuclear weapon sources by analyzing their isotopic ratios. Additionally, we demonstrated how the database can be used to identify the environmental factors that influence the distribution of 137Cs and 239+240Pu in reference soils by applying a machine learning algorithm. Our meta-analysis revealed that high 137Cs and 239+240Pu inventories were recorded near the Equator and within the 20–40° S latitudinal bands, which coincide with the location of multiple NWT locations. The 240Pu/239Pu atomic ratios suggest that sources other than the global fallout (primarily from US and USSR weapon testing with a 240Pu/239Pu atomic ratio of ∼ 0.18) contributed to the reference inventories in the Southern Hemisphere. These additional sources have been relatively neglected so far. Based on the 240Pu/239Pu atomic ratios, we have estimated that the French fallout contributed ∼ 20 % to the reference soil 239+240Pu inventories in South America and up to 70 % in French Polynesia. In contrast, the British fallout contributed ∼ 27 % to the reference soil 239+240Pu inventories in the rest of Oceania. Our machine learning algorithm identified the precipitation of the coldest quarter, longitude, and latitude as the strongest predictors of the 137Cs inventory. For the 239+240Pu inventory, the mean diurnal temperature range, the annual temperature range, and the precipitation of the driest quarter were the strongest predictors. Altogether, these findings demonstrate the potential of the AVATAR-Soils Database as a resource for improving our understanding of the distribution and sources of 137Cs and 239+240Pu in equatorial and Southern Hemisphere soils and refining their application as tools in various Earth science research. The AVATAR-Soils Database may be accessed at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14008221 (Dicen et al., 2024).

Variable time lags in genetic response of three temperate forest herbs to 70 years of agricultural landscape change

ContextAgriculture-driven land-use changes over the past decades have not only reduced the amount of habitat for species but also influenced the genetic exchange among the remaining fragmented populations. Many recent studies have found a delayed response in population genetic diversity and differentiation of species in fragmented habitats to past landscape disturbances, a so-called time lag. However, the specific role of species’ individual reproductive traits and the population genetic measures used remain poorly understood.ObjectivesWe examined the impact of past and current agricultural landscape composition in temperate Europe on the population genetic structure of three long-lived, slow-colonizing forest herb species – Anemone nemorosa, Oxalis acetosella and Polygonatum multiflorum, which vary in their reproductive traits.MethodsWe considered four time points in history (mid-1900s, 1985, 2000 and 2017) to identify the potentially different length of time that is needed by each species to respond to landscape change. We also explored the impact of using different genetic measures in quantifying the time lags.ResultsOur findings show that despite substantial landscape alterations about 70 years ago, the mid-1900s landscape composition was not reflected in the current genetic diversity and differentiation of the three species. This indicates a possible unexpected quick genetic adjustment of these species. Nevertheless, by combining the signals of multiple genetic measures, we found that O. acetosella, which reaches sexual maturity earlier than the other two species and is self-compatible, showed signs of faster genetic adjustment to these landscape changes. In contrast, A. nemorosa and P. multiflorum, which take longer to reach sexual maturity, might exhibit longer time lags that were beyond this study’s time frame.ConclusionsThis study underscores the importance of considering the species’ reproductive traits and especially the role of temporal scales of different genetic measures when investigating the impact of landscape history on current population genetic structures.

Estimating the Economic Cost of Land Degradation and Desertification in Morocco

Desertification affects over 90% of Moroccan territory, leading to soil degradation that reduces agricultural productivity, diminishes biodiversity, and alters environmental functions. This study estimates the total economic cost of desertification in Morocco using a zonal approach based on regional sensitivity. The methodology includes two stages: quantifying productivity losses from water and wind erosion, salinization, overgrazing, silting of dams, carbon storage loss, and land-use changes; and monetizing impacts using methods such as productivity change, replacement cost, and the social cost of carbon. The total cost is estimated at USD 2.1 billion per year, with 78.02% from agricultural and grazing land productivity losses, 2.95% from dam silting, 18.47% from carbon storage loss, and 0.56% from land-use changes. These findings underscore the urgency of public policies, including land use planning, sustainable agriculture, irrigation modernization, and community engagement. Drawing on successful initiatives in the MENA region and globally, Morocco can mitigate desertification’s impacts and foster sustainable development.

Impact of Land-Use Change on Vascular Epiphytes: A Review

Human-caused habitat conversion, degradation, and climate change threaten global biodiversity, particularly in tropical forests where vascular epiphytes—non-parasitic plants growing on other plants—may be especially vulnerable. Epiphytes play vital ecological roles, in nutrient cycling and by providing habitat, but are disproportionately affected by land-use changes due to their reliance on host trees and specific microclimatic conditions. While tree species in secondary forests recover relatively quickly, epiphyte recolonization is slower, especially in humid montane regions, where species richness may decline by up to 96% compared to primary or old-growth forests. A review of nearly 300 pertinent studies has revealed a geographic bias toward the Neotropics, with limited research from tropical Asia, Africa, and temperate regions. The studies can be grouped into four main areas: 1. trade, use and conservation, 2. ecological effects of climate and land-use change, 3. diversity in human-modified habitats, and 4. responses to disturbance. In agricultural and timber plantations, particularly those using exotic species like pine and eucalyptus, epiphyte diversity is significantly reduced. In contrast, most native tree species and shade-grown agroforestry systems support higher species richness. Traditional polycultures with dense canopy cover maintain up to 88% of epiphyte diversity, while intensive management practices, such as epiphyte removal in coffee and cacao plantations, cause substantial biodiversity losses. Conservation strategies should prioritize preserving old-growth forests, maintaining forest fragments, and minimizing intensive land management. Active restoration, including the translocation of fallen epiphytes and planting vegetation nuclei, is more effective than passive approaches. Future research should include long-term monitoring to understand epiphyte dynamics and assess the broader impacts of epiphyte loss on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.

Ecological niche modeling of Prosopis africana (Guill., Perrot., and Rich.) Taub in Togo, West Africa under current and future climate conditions

Prosopis africana (Guill., Perrot., and Rich.) Taub. is a multipurpose species of significant socioeconomic value under threat in West Africa due to overexploitation and land-use changes. This study assesses the impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of this species within Togo climate zones. In predicting the distribution of P. africana, we evaluated the performance of five species distribution models (SDMs): Random Forest (RF), General Additive Model (GAM), Boosted Regression Tree (BRT), Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), and General Linear Model (GLM). We employed Kappa and True Skill Statistic (TSS) as evaluation metrics to identify the most accurate model. Future habitat suitability was projected for the periods 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100, based on an average of four general circulation models (CanESM5, CNRM-CM6, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC6) under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Principal Component Analysis was used to discriminate populations of P. africana based on 19 bioclimatic variables and soil data. The results indicate that the RF model demonstrated the highest predictive performance. The analysis revealed two distinct populations of P. africana corresponding to Togo Sudanian (SZ) and Guinean (GZ) climate zones. Currently, both zones provide highly suitable habitats for the species, with 81.7% of the SZ and 88.4% of the GZ identified as suitable areas. However, future projections suggest contrasting outcomes: the SZ zone is expected to become entirely suitable, whereas the GZ zone is projected to experience a decline in suitable habitats. These findings underscore the need for region-specific conservation strategies to safeguard P. africana under changing climatic conditions. This study emphasizes the importance of adaptive, location-specific management to mitigate the impacts of global climate change on vulnerable species.

Geo-Spatial Evolution of Desertification in Cholistan Desert of South Punjab, Pakistan

Satellite remote sensing has become a dependable geospatial technology for accurately evaluating land use and land cover across global, regional or local scales. This research aims to assess changes in land cover and land use in the Cholistan Desert through Supervise classification and NDVI, NDbaI and TGSI indices, which is located in southern Punjab, Pakistan. Landsat data has been a reliable source for historical images of the Earth's surface over the past 25 years due to its consistency and practicality. The present research utilizes satellite data from Landsat 5 TM for the years 1996, 2002, and 2008, along with Landsat 8 OLI for the years 2014 and 2020. To calculate the area percentage, change and annual dynamic rate of change at discrete time intervals, maximum likelihood supervised classification and change detection algorithms are necessary. In this work, the methods employed for change detection utilize remote sensing indices like the normalized difference vegetation index, the top grain soil index, and the normalized difference bareness index. Between 1996 and 2020, the findings show that agricultural land grew at a rate of 2.3%, while uncultivated land diminished at a dynamic rate of 0.5%. The linear regression analysis reveals a significant R2 of 0.99 for the relationship between the population growth rate and agricultural growth rate at the 0.03 significance level, as well as a significant R2 of 0.58 for the relationship between agricultural growth rate and barren land reduction rate. A comparison of the district's vegetation and bareness indices reveals a 16.8% increase in vegetation and a 13.4% decrease in bareness, with the latter change mainly occurring in the south of the district, towards lesser Cholistan Correlation coefficients between vegetation and the bareness index were 0.83 in 1996 and 0.91 in 2020. As a consequence of considerable alterations in land use, the natural environment and arid ecosystem of the study area are deteriorating. This study can act as a template for local stakeholders aiming to enhance land use planning in the district by identifying areas that are most vulnerable to changes in land use.

Multi-Temporal Land Use and Land Cover Change Detection in Northern Nigeria's Frontline States: Geospatial Insights for Sustainable Development and Climate Adaptation

Land use and land cover (LULC) changes driven by anthropogenic activities are key contributors to local, regional, and global environmental transformations. Understanding and monitoring these changes have become essential for addressing environmental challenges. This study analyzed LULC dynamics from 1984 to 2022 in the frontline states of Northern Nigeria using remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Supervised classification algorithms were applied to satellite imagery, achieving an overall classification accuracy of 86.83%. The findings revealed significant trends: dense vegetation, water bodies, and bare land showed marked declines, while light vegetation and built-up areas exhibited substantial growth over the study period. The long-term annual rate of change for dense vegetation decreased from 0.77% ha⁻¹ to 6.25% ha⁻¹ (a reduction of 58% to 4.84%), and water bodies declined from 0.00% ha⁻¹ to 1.47% ha⁻¹. Conversely, light vegetation increased from 0.32% ha⁻¹ to 2.37% ha⁻¹, bare land from 7.8% ha⁻¹ to 6.12% ha⁻¹, and built-up areas from 0.93% ha⁻¹ to 3.36% ha⁻¹. A post-classification comparison using transition matrices revealed that approximately 53.36% of dense vegetation in 1984 transitioned to light vegetation by 2022. Additionally, 50.15% of bare land was converted to light vegetation, while 0.63% of light vegetation was transformed into built-up areas during the same period. These results offer reliable data on the extent and rate of LULC changes in Northern Nigeria, providing valuable insights for land management and policy formulation aimed at sustainable natural resource use. The study underscores the need for integrating these findings into regional planning and decision-making. Future research is recommended to explore the socio-economic and spatial drivers of LULC changes between 1984 and 2022 to better inform sustainable management strategies in Northern Nigeria and similar regions. The Nigerian government should develop and implement sustainable land-use plans that balance economic development with environmental conservation and also establish a robust environmental monitoring system to track land-use changes and enforce regulations.