Lake Thermal Structure Research Articles

Multi‐Model Machine Learning Approach Accurately Predicts Lake Dissolved Oxygen With Multiple Environmental Inputs

AbstractAs a key water quality parameter, dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration, and particularly changes in bottom water DO is fundamental for understanding the biogeochemical processes in lake ecosystems. Based on two machine learning (ML) models, Gradient Boost Regressor (GBR) and long‐short‐term‐memory (LSTM) network, this study developed three ML model approaches: direct GBR; direct LSTM; and a 2‐step mixed ML model workflow combining both GBR and LSTM. They were used to simulate multi‐year surface and bottom DO concentrations in five lakes. All approaches were trained with readily available environmental data as predictors. Indices of lake thermal structure and mixing provided by a one‐dimensional (1‐D) hydrodynamic model were also included as predictors in the ML models. The advantages of each ML approach were not consistent for all the tested lakes, but the best one of them was defined that can estimate DO concentration with coefficient of determination (R2) up to 0.6–0.7 in each lake. All three approaches have normalized mean absolute error (NMAE) under 0.15. In a polymictic lake, the 2‐step mixed model workflow showed better representation of bottom DO concentrations, with a highest true positive rate (TPR) of hypolimnetic hypoxia detection of over 90%, while the other workflows resulted in, TPRs are around 50%. In most of the tested lakes, the predicted surface DO concentrations and variables indicating stratified conditions (i.e., Wedderburn number and the temperature difference between surface and bottom water) are essential for simulating bottom DO. The ML approaches showed promising results and could be used to support short‐ and long‐term water management plans.

Earlier ice melt increases hypolimnetic oxygen despite regional warming in small Arctic lakes

AbstractAlthough trends toward earlier ice‐out have been documented globally, the links between ice‐out timing and lake thermal and biogeochemical structure vary spatially. In high‐latitude lakes where ice‐out occurs close to peak intensity of solar radiation, these links remain unclear. Using a long‐term dataset from 13 lakes in West Greenland, we investigated how changing ice‐out and weather conditions affect lake thermal structure and oxygen concentrations. In early ice‐out years, lakes reach higher temperatures across the water column and have deeper epilimnia. Summer hypolimnia are the warmest (~ 11°C) in years when cooler air temperatures follow early ice‐out, allowing full lake turnover. Due to the higher potential for substantive spring mixing in early ice‐out years, a warmer hypolimnion is associated with higher dissolved oxygen concentrations. By affecting variability in spring mixing, the consequences of shifts in ice phenology for lakes at high latitudes differ from expectations based on temperate regions.

Contribution of gas concentration and transfer velocity to CO2 flux variability in northern lakes

AbstractThe CO2 flux () from lakes to the atmosphere is a large component of the global carbon cycle and depends on the air–water CO2 concentration gradient (ΔCO2) and the gas transfer velocity (k). Both ΔCO2 and k can vary on multiple timescales and understanding their contributions to is important for explaining variability in fluxes and developing optimal sampling designs. We measured and ΔCO2 and derived k for one full ice‐free period in 18 lakes using floating chambers and estimated the contributions of ΔCO2 and k to variability. Generally, k contributed more than ΔCO2 to short‐term (1–9 d) variability. With increased temporal period, the contribution of k to variability decreased, and in some lakes resulted in ΔCO2 contributing more than k to variability over the full ice‐free period. Increased contribution of ΔCO2 to variability over time occurred across all lakes but was most apparent in large‐volume southern‐boreal lakes and in deeper (> 2 m) parts of lakes, whereas k was linked to variability in shallow waters. Accordingly, knowing the variability of both k and ΔCO2 over time and space is needed for accurate modeling of from these variables. We conclude that priority in assessments should be given to direct measurements of at multiple sites when possible, or otherwise from spatially distributed measurements of ΔCO2 combined with k‐models that incorporate spatial variability of lake thermal structure and meteorology.

Planktic diatom responses to spatiotemporal environmental variation in high‐mountain tropical lakes

Abstract Tropical lakes harbour high levels of biodiversity, but the temporal and spatial variability of biological communities are still inadequately characterised, making it difficult to predict the impact of accelerated rates of environmental change in these regions. Our goal was to identify the spatiotemporal dynamics of the planktic diatom community in the Cajas Massif in the tropical Andes. We analysed seasonal diatom and environmental data over a period of 1 year from 10 lakes located in geologically distinct basins and modelled community–environment relationships using multivariate ordination and variation partitioning techniques. Generalised additive models with a full‐subset information theoretic approach also were used to determine which environmental variables explain single‐species abundance. Although the lakes are monomictic and thus have variable thermal structure across the year, seasonal variability of water chemistry conditions was negligible, and seasonal differences in diatom community composition were small. Across space, diatom community composition was correlated primarily with ionic content (divalent cations and alkalinity), related to bedrock composition, and secondly with lake thermal structure and productivity. The ionic gradient overrode the effect of the thermal structure–productivity gradient at the diatom community level, whereas individual diatom species responded more sensitively to variables related to in‐lake and catchment productivity, including chlorophyll‐a and iron, and the proportion of wetlands in the catchment. Our results indicate that the spatiotemporal variability of Cajas lakes and their diatom communities is the result of multiple intertwined environmental factors. The emergence of the ionic and thermal structure–productivity gradients in a rather small tropical lake district suggests segregation of ecological niches for diatoms that also may be important in other high‐elevation lake regions. Future studies that track tropical Andean lakes under natural and anthropogenically mediated change, both in contemporary times and in palaeoenvironmental reconstructions, would benefit from the modelling approach (community and species levels) developed here.

A simple model for predicting oxygen depletion in lakes under climate change

ABSTRACT The advent of climate change has placed aquatic ecosystems at risk for potential declines in water quality, including an increase in the number of lakes experiencing substantial dissolved oxygen (O2) depletion. Through its influence on the thermal structure of lakes via elevated water temperatures and alterations in stratification phenology, climate change intensifies biogeochemical and ecological processes involved in O2 consumption, giving rise to conditions like hypoxia/anoxia. However, predicting O2 dynamics is difficult, with in situ O2 depletion rates showing considerable lake-dependent variability, underpinned by distinct underlying mechanisms. Our study attempts to overcome these lake-specific features and targets distilling key components of O2 depletion into a simple and transferable conceptual model applicable across a diverse array of lakes and at large scales. Using O2 depletion rates from literature reflecting variability in trophic state, we quantified the typical O2 depletion rate ranges for oligotrophic, mesotrophic, and eutrophic lakes and assessed their temperature sensitivity for a broader climate impact assessment. Our model gave reasonable estimates for O2 depletion and risks of anoxia through 3 explanatory variables: trophic state, stratification duration, and hypolimnion temperature. We validated our model predictions using data from 5 German lakes and assessed the relative importance of the 3 influencing factors. This easy-to-use approach has potential for lake management to attain rapid assessments of possible future problems with O2 dynamics in a given lake, even in the absence of in situ data. Moreover, it allows scaling of O2 dynamics continentally/globally without lake-specific hydrological or morphological details.

A 3D numerical modeling of the links between hydrodynamics, dissolved oxygen, and water temperature of a northern rural-urban shallow lake with two distinct basins.

A 3D hydrodynamic model (EFDC) was applied to simulate dissolved oxygen (DO) and temperature (T) (two crucial parameters impacting water quality) throughout Lake St. Charles, a rural-urban shallow lake located North of Quebec City, Canada. Model outputs of T and DO corroborate observations at five monitoring stations within the lake. Simulated results indicated annual cycles of turnovers and stratifications and different behaviors for the deep and shallow basins. For the simulated years, the deep basin was stratified in summer and winter, while the shallow basin was mostly mixed throughout the year. The lake heat budget indicates that during summer with a long retention time, the thermal structure of the lake is principally controlled by net radiation, latent, and sensible heat fluxes. For the rest of the year, the inflow (from the main tributary, the Des Hurons River) and outflow are the main drivers of the lake's thermal structure.

Improvements and Evaluation of the FLake Model in Dagze Co, Central Tibetan Plateau

FLake has been one of the most extensively used lake models in many studies for lake thermal structure simulations. However, due to the scarcity of lake temperature observations, its applicability and performance on lakes over the Tibetan Plateau are still poorly investigated, especially in small- to medium-sized lakes. In this study, based on water profile observations in Dagze Co, a medium-sized lake on the central Tibetan Plateau, the sensitivity of lake thermal features to three key parameters in FLake was investigated. The performance of FLake in reproducing the lake thermal features was evaluated and improved by optimizing these key parameters. The results showed that the FLake model with default parameter settings can generally reproduce the thermal features of Dagze Co, but there are still significant deviations compared to observation. The sensitive experiments demonstrated that the thermal structure of the lake obviously responds to the change in the water extinction coefficient (Kd), friction velocity (u*), and ice albedo (αice). Based on previous studies and sensitive experiments, the three key parameters were set to the optimized value, which substantially improved the performance of FLake. The values of bias and RMSE of simulated lake surface water temperature decreased from 3.08 °C and 3.62 °C to 2.0 °C and 2.48 °C after parameter optimization. The integration of a simple salinity scheme further improved the ability of FLake to reproduce the observed thermal features of Dagze Co. These results will improve our understanding of thermal processes in lakes on the Tibetan Plateau, as well as the applicability of lake models.

Seasonal shifts in diel vertical migrations by lake‐dwelling coastal cutthroat trout, Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii, reflect thermal regimes and prey distributions

AbstractLakes provide important habitat for salmonids that may use them as a primary feeding area between periods of reproduction. The seasonal changes in vertical thermal structure in lakes can affect the distribution of salmonids on seasonal and diel time scales as they search for, consume, and digest prey that also exploits the water column's distribution of food, temperature and light. Our goal was to analyse the vertical distribution of wild, native coastal cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii) in Lake Washington on daily and seasonal time scales. This lake is stratified in the summer and isothermal in winter, allowing us to compare vertical movements between periods with and without thermal structure in water 50 m deep. We predicted that trout would be deeper in the water column during stratified months and shallower during isothermal months, and shallower at night than in the day. Overall, the trout showed these patterns in the depths and temperatures they occupied, tending to be within or below the thermocline in the summer but not in the coolest water available, and closer to the surface when the lake was isothermal. The trout were also closer to the surface at night and deeper during the day. The vertical range of these diel movements shifted with the seasons–deepest in October, as the thermocline deepened and weakened, and shallowest in January when the lake was isothermal. These seasonal and diel vertical distribution patterns by the trout optimise metabolism for growth, and facilitate feeding on planktivorous fishes that also show seasonal and diel vertical distribution changes.

The impacts of climate change on thermal stratification and dissolved oxygen in the temperate, dimictic Mississippi Lake, Ontario

This study investigates and reports the climate change's effects on the Mississippi Lake thermal structure and dissolved oxygen (DO) for baseline (1986–2005) and future (2081–2100) periods. Future meteorological variables were derived from the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) under three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The long-term lake inflow was modelled using the Thornthwaite monthly water balance model (TMWB) coupled with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to simulate the water level in the lake. Several methods were analyzed to assure the above is the best for estimating the water budget in this region. The water quality of Mississippi Lake was analyzed using a calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 model for the years 2017 and 2018. A major challenge in setting up the model was limitations in some essential water quality indicator inputs, which were estimated using reliable experimental relationships. Our results show that the baseline average surface water temperature of 14.6 °C would increase by 1.31 °C, 1.34 °C, and 2.69 °C under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. In contrast, the baseline average hypolimnetic DO of 7.1 mg/L would decrease by 1.4%, 6.2%, and 14.3% in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Such a rise in water temperature and the consequent diminishment of DO in deep waters would threaten the future sustainable growth of warm-water fish species in Mississippi lake.

Numerical simulation of thermal stratification in Lake Qiandaohu using an improved WRF-Lake model

Lake thermal stratification is important for regulating lake environments and ecosystems and is sensitive to climate change and human activity. However, numerical simulation of coupled hydrodynamics and heat transfer processes in deep lakes using one-dimensional lake models remains challenging because of the insufficient representation of key parameters. In this study, Lake Qiandaohu, a deep and warm monomictic reservoir, was used as an example to investigate thermal stratification via an improved parameterization scheme of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF)-Lake. A comparison with in situ observations demonstrated that the default WRF-Lake model was able to simulate well the seasonal variation of the lake thermal structure. However, the simulations exhibited cold biases in lake surface water temperature (LSWT) throughout the year while generating weaker stratification in summer, thereby leading to an earlier cooling period in autumn. With an improved parameterization (i.e., via determination of initial lake water temperature profiles, light extinction coefficients, eddy diffusion coefficients and surface roughness lengths), the modified WRF-Lake model was able to better simulate LSWT and thermal stratification. Critically, employing realistic initial conditions for lake water temperature is essential for producing realistic hypolimnetic water temperatures. The use of time-dependent light extinction coefficients resulted in a deep thermocline and warm LSWT. Enlarging eddy diffusivity led to stronger mixing in summer and further influenced autumn cooling. The parameterized surface roughness lengths mitigated the excessive turbulent heat loss at the lake surface, improved the model performance in simulating LSWT, and generated a warm mixed layer. This study provides guidance on model parameterization for simulating the thermal structure of deep lakes and advances our understanding of the strength and revolution of lake thermal stratification under seasonal changes.

The importance of effective moisture and landscape controls on diatom assemblages and primary production in Roche Lake, British Columbia, Canada over the past ca. 1800 years

AbstractLakes in the semiarid Southern Interior Plateau of British Columbia, Canada are vulnerable to future climate-driven changes in water quantity and quality. However, few long-term monitoring records exist to assess the effects of varying hydroclimate conditions on lake function. We present a high-resolution multiproxy paleolimnological record containing subfossil diatoms, μXRF via ITRAX, and chlorophyll-athat spans the past 1800 years from Roche Lake in south-central British Columbia. Generalized additive models indicate that the diatom assemblages were associated with changes in lake level and the accompanying effects of atmospheric forcing on lake thermal structure, and that these forcing mechanisms had a weak relationship with primary production. We infer two pronounced arid periods between ca. AD 600–950 and ca. AD 1730–1950 that correspond to evidence of reduced lake mixing and enhanced anoxia, but variable patterns in primary production. Synthesis of regional proxy records suggests that inferences of moist but possibly warm conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly may have occurred because of a complex interaction between prolonged La Niña-like conditions and higher radiative forcing. Overall, lakes in this region are sensitive to changes in hydroclimate generated by interactions between external forcing and Pacific Ocean–atmosphere processes, and the resulting changes in aridity may have potentially negative consequences on salmonid habitat.

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Abstract. Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.

Global data set of long-term summertime vertical temperature profiles in 153 lakes

Climate change and other anthropogenic stressors have led to long-term changes in the thermal structure, including surface temperatures, deepwater temperatures, and vertical thermal gradients, in many lakes around the world. Though many studies highlight warming of surface water temperatures in lakes worldwide, less is known about long-term trends in full vertical thermal structure and deepwater temperatures, which have been changing less consistently in both direction and magnitude. Here, we present a globally-expansive data set of summertime in-situ vertical temperature profiles from 153 lakes, with one time series beginning as early as 1894. We also compiled lake geographic, morphometric, and water quality variables that can influence vertical thermal structure through a variety of potential mechanisms in these lakes. These long-term time series of vertical temperature profiles and corresponding lake characteristics serve as valuable data to help understand changes and drivers of lake thermal structure in a time of rapid global and ecological change.

Floating photovoltaics could mitigate climate change impacts on water body temperature and stratification

Floating solar photovoltaics, or floatovoltaics (FPV), are a relatively new form of renewable energy, currently experiencing rapid growth in deployment. FPV decarbonises the energy supply while reducing land-use pressures, offers higher electricity generating efficiencies compared to ground-based systems and reduces water body evaporation. However, the effects on lake temperature and stratification of FPV both sheltering the water’s surface from the wind and limiting the solar radiation reaching the water column are unresolved, despite temperature and stratification being key drivers of the ecosystem response to FPV deployment. These unresolved impacts present a barrier to further deployment, with water body managers concerned of any deleterious effects. To overcome this knowledge gap, here the effects of FPV-induced changes in wind speed and solar radiation on lake thermal structure were modelled utilising the one-dimensional process-based MyLake model. To resolve the effect of FPV arrays of different sizes and designs, observed wind speed and solar radiation were scaled using a factorial approach from 0% to 100% in 1% intervals. The simulations returned a highly non-linear response, dependent on system design and coverage. The responses could be either positive or negative, and were often highly variable, although, most commonly, water temperatures reduce, stratification shortens and mixed depths shallow. Modifications to the thermal dynamics of the water body may subsequently drastically alter biogeochemical processes, with fundamental implications for ecosystem service provision and water treatment costs. The extreme nature of response for particular wind speed and solar radiation combinations results in impacts that could be comparable to, or more significant than, climate change. As such, depending on how they are used, FPV have the potential to mitigate some of the impacts of climate change on water bodies and could be a useful tool for water body managers in dealing with changes to water quality, or, conversely, they could induce deleterious impacts on standing water ecosystems. These simulations provide a starting point to inform the design of future systems that maximise ecosystem service and environmental co-benefits from this growing water body change of use.

Lake thermal structure drives interannual variability in summer anoxia dynamics in a eutrophic lake over 37 years

Abstract. The concentration of oxygen is fundamental to lake water quality and ecosystem functioning through its control over habitat availability for organisms, redox reactions, and recycling of organic material. In many eutrophic lakes, oxygen depletion in the bottom layer (hypolimnion) occurs annually during summer stratification. The temporal and spatial extent of summer hypolimnetic anoxia is determined by interactions between the lake and its external drivers (e.g., catchment characteristics, nutrient loads, meteorology) as well as internal feedback mechanisms (e.g., organic matter recycling, phytoplankton blooms). How these drivers interact to control the evolution of lake anoxia over decadal timescales will determine, in part, the future lake water quality. In this study, we used a vertical one-dimensional hydrodynamic–ecological model (GLM-AED2) coupled with a calibrated hydrological catchment model (PIHM-Lake) to simulate the thermal and water quality dynamics of the eutrophic Lake Mendota (USA) over a 37 year period. The calibration and validation of the lake model consisted of a global sensitivity evaluation as well as the application of an optimization algorithm to improve the fit between observed and simulated data. We calculated stability indices (Schmidt stability, Birgean work, stored internal heat), identified spring mixing and summer stratification periods, and quantified the energy required for stratification and mixing. To qualify which external and internal factors were most important in driving the interannual variation in summer anoxia, we applied a random-forest classifier and multiple linear regressions to modeled ecosystem variables (e.g., stratification onset and offset, ice duration, gross primary production). Lake Mendota exhibited prolonged hypolimnetic anoxia each summer, lasting between 50–60 d. The summer heat budget, the timing of thermal stratification, and the gross primary production in the epilimnion prior to summer stratification were the most important predictors of the spatial and temporal extent of summer anoxia periods in Lake Mendota. Interannual variability in anoxia was largely driven by physical factors: earlier onset of thermal stratification in combination with a higher vertical stability strongly affected the duration and spatial extent of summer anoxia. A measured step change upward in summer anoxia in 2010 was unexplained by the GLM-AED2 model. Although the cause remains unknown, possible factors include invasion by the predacious zooplankton Bythotrephes longimanus. As the heat budget depended primarily on external meteorological conditions, the spatial and temporal extent of summer anoxia in Lake Mendota is likely to increase in the near future as a result of projected climate change in the region.

Thermal stratification and fish thermal preference explain vertical eDNA distributions in lakes.

Significant advances have been made towards surveying animal and plant communities using DNA isolated from environmental samples. Despite rapid progress, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the "ecology" of environmental DNA (eDNA), particularly its temporal and spatial distribution and how this is shaped by abiotic and biotic processes. Here, we tested how seasonal variation in thermal stratification and animal habitat preferences influences the distribution of eDNA in lakes. We sampled eDNA depth profiles of five dimictic lakes during both summer stratification and autumn turnover, each containing warm- and cool-water fishes as well as the cold-water stenotherm, lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush). Habitat use by S. namaycush was validated by acoustic telemetry and was significantly related to eDNA distribution during stratification. Fish eDNA became "stratified" into layers during summer months, reflecting lake stratification and the thermal niches of the species. During summer months, S. namaycush, which rarely ventured into shallow waters, could only be detected at the deepest layers of the lakes, whereas the eDNA of warm-water fishes was much more abundant above the thermocline. By contrast, during autumn lake turnover, the fish species assemblage as detected by eDNA was homogenous throughout the water column. These findings contribute to our overall understanding of the "ecology" of eDNA within lake ecosystems, illustrating how the strong interaction between seasonal thermal structure in lakes and thermal niches of species on very localized spatial scales influences our ability to detect species.

Variability of lake surface water temperature: a case study during El Nino and La Nina events over the Himalayan lake region

ABSTRACT Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is sensitive to long-term changes in thermal structure of lakes. This paper investigates the association of LSWT with meteorological parameters and its impact during El Nino and La Nina events over the Himalayan lake region, using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data from 2001 to 2017. The observed daytime rates of change of LSWT was −0.05°C/year whereas it was +0.01°C/year for nighttime. The cooling of lake during daytime could be attributed to increase in rainfall and decrease in solar radiation, whereas increase in nighttime LSWT is due to increasing lowest temperature. The variability in LSWT with respect to meteorological variables during El Nino Southern Oscillation period was highest for cold phase than warm phase. There was only 1% increase in LSWT in the El Nino years (2002 and 2009), due to decreased rainfall by 95% and 56% respectively. On the other hand, the LSWT decreased in strong La Nina years of 2007 (2%) and 2010 (6%) due to the drastically increased rainfall, decreased maximum temperature and solar radiation. The correlation revealed that, in addition to the increase in temperature, the LSWT warming is consistent with the decrease in rainfall and increase in solar radiation.

13 Years of Storms: An Analysis of the Effects of Storms on Lake Physics on the Atlantic Fringe of Europe

While winter storms are generally common in western Europe, the rarer summer storms may result in more pronounced impacts on lake physics. Using long-term, high frequency datasets of weather and lake thermal structure from the west of Ireland (2005 to 2017), we quantified the effects of storms on the physical conditions in a monomictic, deep lake close to the Atlantic Ocean. We analysed a total of 227 storms during the stratified (May to September, n = 51) and non-stratified (November to March, n = 176) periods. In winter, as might be expected, changes were distributed over the entire water column, whereas in summer, when the lake was stratified, storms only impacted the smaller volume above the thermocline. During an average summer (May–September) storm, the lake number dropped by an order of magnitude, the thermocline deepened by an average of 2.8 m, water column stability decreased by an average of 60.4 j m−2 and the epilimnion temperature decreased by a factor of five compared to the average change in winter (0.5 °C vs. 0.1 °C). Projected increases in summer storm frequency will have important implications for lake physics and biological pathways.

An Arctic watershed observatory at Lake Peters, Alaska: weather–glacier–river–lake system data for 2015–2018

Abstract. Datasets from a 4-year monitoring effort at Lake Peters, a glacier-fed lake in Arctic Alaska, are described and presented with accompanying methods, biases, and corrections. Three meteorological stations documented air temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall at different elevations in the Lake Peters watershed. Data from ablation stake stations on Chamberlin Glacier were used to quantify glacial melt, and measurements from two hydrological stations were used to reconstruct continuous discharge for the primary inflows to Lake Peters, Carnivore and Chamberlin creeks. The lake's thermal structure was monitored using a network of temperature sensors on moorings, the lake's water level was recorded using pressure sensors, and sedimentary inputs to the lake were documented by sediment traps. We demonstrate the utility of these datasets by examining a flood event in July 2015, though other uses include studying intra- and inter-annual trends in this weather–glacier–river–lake system, contextualizing interpretations of lake sediment cores, and providing background for modeling studies. All DOI-referenced datasets described in this paper are archived at the National Science Foundation Arctic Data Center at the following overview web page for the project: https://arcticdata.io/catalog/view/urn:uuid:df1eace5-4dd7-4517-a985-e4113c631044 (last access: 13 October 2019; Kaufman et al., 2019f).

Historical modelling of changes in Lake Erken thermal conditions

Abstract. Historical lake water temperature records are a valuable source of information to assess the influence of climate change on lake thermal structure. However, in most cases such records span a short period of time and/or are incomplete, providing a less credible assessment of change. In this study, the hydrodynamic GOTM (General Ocean Turbulence Model, a hydrodynamic model configured in lake mode) was used to reconstruct daily profiles of water temperature in Lake Erken (Sweden) over the period 1961–2017 using seven climatic parameters as forcing data: wind speed (WS), air temperature (Air T), atmospheric pressure (Air P), relative humidity (RH), cloud cover (CC), precipitation (DP), and shortwave radiation (SWR). The model was calibrated against observed water temperature data collected during the study interval, and the calibrated model revealed a good match between modelled and observed temperature (RMSE =1.089 ∘C). From the long-term simulations of water temperature, this study focused on detecting possible trends in water temperature over the entire study interval 1961–2017 and in the sub-intervals 1961–1988 and 1989–2017, since an abrupt change in air temperature was detected in 1988. The analysis of the simulated temperature showed that epilimnetic temperature increased on average by 0.444 and 0.792 ∘C per decade in spring and autumn in the sub-interval 1989–2017. Summer epilimnetic temperature increased by 0.351 ∘C per decade over the entire interval 1961–2017. Hypolimnetic temperature increased significantly in spring over the entire interval 1961–2017, by 0.148 and by 0.816 ∘C per decade in autumn in the sub-interval 1989–2016. Whole-lake temperature showed a significant increasing trend in the sub-interval 1989–2017 during spring (0.404 ∘C per decade) and autumn (0.789 ∘C per decade, interval 1989–2016), while a significant trend was detected in summer over the entire study interval 1961–2017 (0.239 ∘C per decade). Moreover, this study showed that changes in the phenology of thermal stratification have occurred over the 57-year period of study. Since 1961, the stability of stratification (Schmidt stability) has increased by 5.365 J m−2 per decade. The duration of thermal stratification has increased by 7.297 d per decade, corresponding to an earlier onset of stratification of ∼16 d and to a delay of stratification termination of ∼26 d. The average thermocline depth during stratification became shallower by ∼1.345 m, and surface-bottom temperature difference increased over time by 0.249 ∘C per decade. The creation of a daily time step water temperature dataset not only provided evidence of changes in Erken thermal structure over the last decades, but is also a valuable resource of information that can help in future research on the ecology of Lake Erken. The use of readily available meteorological data to reconstruct Lake Erken's past water temperature is shown to be a useful method to evaluate long-term changes in lake thermal structure, and it is a method that can be extended to other lakes.