Kuznets Curve Research Articles (Page 1)

ABSTRACT This study employs capital, labor, and energy as input variables, with provincial GDP as the desired output and CO2 emissions as the undesired output. Within the total factor productivity framework, two energy efficiency indices – energy economic efficiency and energy-environmental performance – are defined using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method. Utilizing a non-radial, non-angle Slacks-Based Measure (SBM) model, the study calculates these indices and their decomposition for Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2023, analyzing their evolution and regional disparities. Based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) theory, the paper examines the relationship between energy efficiency indices, their decomposition, and regional economic growth. Results indicate that China’s overall energy efficiency indices were relatively low during the sample period, with significant regional disparities and potential for energy conservation and emission reduction. A non-linear relationship (either inverted U-shaped or U-shaped) was observed between these indices and economic growth. Industrial structure, population density, energy structure, and foreign capital utilization significantly affected both energy efficiency indices, though the mechanisms varied.

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, financial development, and economic growth in Oman from 1998 to 2022 within the framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Using time series data from the World Bank, IMF, and Oman’s National Centre for Statistics and Information, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is applied to evaluate both long-run and short-run interactions. Diagnostic tests, including Breusch–Godfrey, Breusch–Pagan–Godfrey, and Ramsey’s RESET, confirm the robustness of the model. The results reveal a cointegrating relationship, with economic growth and financial development exerting significant long-term impacts on CO 2 emissions. The error correction term indicates a 70% annual adjustment towards equilibrium, underscoring the dynamic nature of the linkage. Bidirectional causality is observed between CO 2 emissions, economic growth, and financial development. While economic diversification has contributed to short-term emission reductions, long-term sustainability requires enhanced green investment and renewable energy development. These research data provide fundamental knowledge that Gulf Cooperation Council region governments, along with national decision-makers in Oman, can use to handle economic progress without sacrificing environmental preservation.

This study empirically tests the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for the United States using annual data from 1971 to 2021. The EKC posits an inverted U-shaped relationship where economic growth initially exacerbates environmental degradation before eventually mitigating it after a certain income threshold is reached. This analysis uses ecological footprint per capita to measure environmental degradation and GDP per capita to represent economic growth. The methodology applies Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Generalized Least Squares (GLS) regression techniques to model the non-linear relationship. A key contribution is the incorporation of a structural break analysis to account for the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis, which was confirmed to be statistically significant. The GLS estimation, which corrects for serial correlation present in the OLS model, provides clear evidence supporting the EKC hypothesis for the U.S. The results indicate that while initial economic growth increases the ecological footprint, a turning point is reached after which higher income levels lead to environmental improvement. This finding underscores the critical role of technological advancement, scale effects, and regulatory frameworks in enabling sustainable development pathways in high-income economies.

Background The continuous increase in emissions has exacerbated climate change, which is a concern for everyone on a global scale. In addition, the dynamics of democratic quality and development dimensions have been identified as key determinants that affect environmental quality in various countries. This study aims to analyze how economic growth (GDP), human development index (HDI), and democracy (DM) affect Environmental Degradation (ED), particularly in the form of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Methods This study used panel data from 30 countries, divided into 15 developed and 15 developing countries, over an annual period from 2015 to 2022. The variables used in this study consist of CO2 as the dependent variable, while GDP, HDI, and DM serve as independent variables. Considering the characteristics of larger cross-section data and shorter time-series ranges, we used a dynamic panel model with two-step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation method to achieve the research objectives. Results The results show that HDI has a negative and significant effect on CO 2 emissions in developed countries, but contrasts with developing countries. Democracy is negatively and significantly correlated with CO 2 emissions, with the effect being more pronounced in developed countries. The study also confirms the existence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) with an inverted U-shaped pattern, supporting the hypothesis in both groups of Eurasian countries. Conclusion The results of the study show that there is a significant dynamic relationship that can be measured by comparing econometric results in Eurasian countries with different levels of development. This study is the first of its kind on the subject in this region, making an important contribution to the empirical literature and enhancing the understanding of the impact of socio-economic-political variables on pollution emissions.

Abstract Between 1990 and 2019, primary school enrollment in Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) surged from 62 million to 187 million students. Despite this growth, SSA remains one of the most unequal continents, challenging the notion that educational expansion reduces wealth inequality. This paper investigates the correlation between educational expansion and household wealth inequality in SSA by conceptualizing educational expansion as distinct regimes with varying educational compositions and rates of expansion, rather than a sequential increase in the proportion of educated populations. Utilizing Demographic and Health Surveys from 15 SSA countries, this paper decomposes changes in household wealth inequality across four expansion regimes spanning the 1990s and 2010s. Contrary to predictions that educational expansion and wealth inequality would follow an inverted U‐shaped curve as proposed by the Kuznets hypothesis, evidence reveals considerable cross‐country variation. Decomposition analysis demonstrates that the level of inequality varies by the overall educational composition and the relative pace of expansion between primary and secondary education. These findings highlight the importance of categorizing educational expansion as distinct regimes by revealing how seemingly similar educational expansions have vastly different associations with wealth inequality.

Pakistan, as a developing country, faces an energy crisis that encourages the use of traditional energy sources at both the household and industrial levels. Pakistan aims to achieve the SDG target (2030) as per the UN SDG target. This study aims to examine the impact of energy poverty, poverty, income inequality, energy consumption, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, economic growth, institutional quality, and energy prices on environmental degradation in Pakistan, and verify the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and the pollution haven hypothesis. A dynamic ARDL simulation model is used to predict the impact of independent (Positive and negative shocks) variables on the dependent variable through graphs. The findings of the dynamic ARDL simulation model reveal that energy poverty, globalisation, poverty, economic growth, FDI inflows, and income inequality in Pakistan increase environmental degradation, while the consumption of renewable energy and institutional quality help to reduce environmental degradation. Furthermore, the EKC and pollution-haven hypotheses are valid in Pakistan. This study supports Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7, advocating affordable clean energy policies to combat energy poverty and promote sustainability in Pakistan, as well as SDG 13, emphasising climate action to ensure both environmental protection and continued economic investment. Considering the SDG targets (2030), policy recommendations are proposed for Pakistan to achieve sustainable development.

Towards economic growth and a sustainable future: Insights beyond the Environmental Kuznets Curve

Has the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis become stronger? A comparative analysis for OECD countries and selected late-industrializing Asian economies.

Driving sustainability: The role of renewable energy and foreign direct investment in shaping environmental performance index in BRICS.

This study addresses the pressing challenge of mitigating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions within the top ten emitting countries, which are critical to achieving global climate goals yet often analyzed separately. We investigate the intricate relationships between economic growth (GDP), renewable and non-renewable energy consumption (RE, NRE), financial development (FDI), industrial value-added (IVA), and CO2 emissions from 1990 to 2021, overcoming the limitations of single-country studies and mixed findings in existing literature. Employing a panel-based Pooled Mean Group-Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) model and Granger causality tests, we disentangle short-run and long-run dynamics, revealing that non-renewable energy significantly increases emissions while renewable energy, financial development, and industrial value-added offer mitigating effects. We provide nuanced evidence supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, suggesting a potential pathway toward sustainable growth. Furthermore, Granger causality analysis reveals significant bidirectional relationships, highlighting the interconnectedness of economic and environmental factors. We translate these findings into actionable policy recommendations, emphasizing targeted investments in clean technologies and financial strategies to foster industrial development while simultaneously curbing emissions. By providing a comprehensive analysis of these dynamics within a key group of countries, this research offers critical insights for overcoming the challenges of emissions reduction and achieving sustainable development.

Two centuries of carbon emissions (1800-2022): The role of government spending, economic growth, and population density in the United States.

Carbon footprints and development: Unraveling the puzzle in belt and road economies.

Exploring the relationships of trade globalization and financial inclusion with energy intensity in emerging economies: The role of technological innovation.

Optimal turning points of sustainability: New curves for a green future in BRICS-T countries.

Tourism development has become one of the key drivers of economic growth in many ASEAN countries; however, the adverse environmental impacts of tourism and economic growth have raised significant concerns among policymakers in the region. With that, this study examines the role of tourism development within the context of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis across ten ASEAN countries over 25 years from 1995 to 2019, employing panel estimators robust to cross-sectional dependence. The results confirm that tourism development significantly contributes to environmental degradation, particularly in the baseline estimation and in robustness checks when population size is excluded. Notably, ASEAN countries are found to exhibit an economic growth-environment trajectory that follows an inverted N-shaped EKC. The computed threshold values of GDP per capita, whether in the baseline or robustness estimations, suggest that the current economic development in ASEAN is having an adverse impact on the environment. Still, renewable energy emerges as a crucial mitigating factor. Furthermore, population size plays a key role in driving both CO2 and GHG emissions. These findings underscore the intricate relationships between tourism development, economic growth, and environmental quality in the ASEAN region. Subsequently, several policy implications are discussed.

This study aims to investigate the financial sector's impact on environmental degradation in the Turkic States and Türkiye. The financial industry is an important tool in preventing environmental degradation in almost every field in newly developing economies. For this purpose, three separate models were developed in the study to evaluate the impact of financial development on the ecological footprint as an indicator of environmental degradation between 1998-2020. In the analysis, the cointegration relationship between the variables was first tested, and then parameter estimates were made with the FMOLS method. According to the results obtained, the environmental Kuznets curve is valid. The ecological footprint and financial development are negatively related. It was seen that the relationship between financial development and growth reduced the ecological footprint; however, there was no connection between financial development and renewable energy. This may mean that the renewable energy sector is not yet effective enough.

Purpose: The aim of this paper is to examine and evaluate whether the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis holds in Vietnam and how the expansion of fast fashion exports has influenced the income–environment relationship in Vietnam from 2000 to 2023. Methodology: This paper utilizes annual national data compiled from the World Bank, UN Comtrade, and the Worldwide Governance Indicators, with four indicators of environmental degradation analyzed: CO₂ emissions per capita, total greenhouse gas emissions per capita, PM2.5 concentrations, and industrial CO₂ emissions. Findings: The results of regression analysis show rejection of the EKC hypothesis in the context of Vietnam during the study period of 2000-2023 and highlight that economic growth alone has not led to environmental improvement. Instead, institutional capacity, regulatory enforcement, and targeted industrial and trade policies play a far stronger role in shaping outcomes. More importantly, alongside strengthening governance, it is critical to address high-emission sectors such as fast fashion, aligning with global climate goals. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: This study contributes to the literature by showing how economic growth, industry structure, and institutional context interact to improve environmental conditions in the developing country context. While industry structure can influence the EKC dynamics, as recent findings suggest, the institutional context, such as the quality of environmental regulation, can has a significant impact of environmental improvement.

Education can play a vital role in moderating the Financial Development (FD), Energy Consumption (EC), and the environment nexus as per the Sustainable Development Goals 7 and 13. Thus, the aim of this research is to explore such linkages in the framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in 15 MENA economies for the period 1999-2022. For this purpose, Cross-Sectional Dependence (CD) econometric techniques are applied. The CD is validated in the individual series and in the hypothesized models as well. The cointegration is also validated in the models. Moreover, the EKC is supported in the MENA region in the regression results. In the long and short run, FD and education reduce carbon emissions, and EC raises them. Moreover, education moderates the connection between FD and emissions. Thus, education helps to enhance the environmental benefits of FD. However, education could not moderate the impact of EC on emissions. These results suggest enhancing financial and environmental literacy to support a sustainable environment in the MENA region.

This study investigates the dynamics of environmental sustainability in India, one of the world's major polluters, by examining the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and the Renewable Energy Kuznets Curve (RKC) hypotheses for the period 1990-2022. Utilizing an Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag (A-ARDL) model, supported by Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR) robustness estimators, the research uniquely determines which of the two Kuznets turning points occurs first. The findings provide strong evidence that the RKC turning point precedes the EKC turning point. This indicates that the shift toward renewable energy adoption begins before the peak of environmental degradation is reached. This result offers critical insights by shedding light on the relationship between economic development and environmental sustainability, suggesting that strategic prioritization of renewable energy can serve as a proactive mechanism to accelerate environmental improvement in a rapidly growing economy such as India.

Purpose This study investigates the impact of financial development (FD) on CO2 emissions in five major Asian economies – China, India, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia over the period 1995 to 2020, while controlling for economic growth, human capital (HC) and urbanization. Design/methodology/approach Cross-sectional dependence is tested using the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test, followed by second-generation unit root tests. Pedroni's panel cointegration and Westurlund test confirm long-run relationships. The Panel Mean Group estimator under the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework is used for coefficient estimation, while Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) ensures robustness. Dumitrescu–Hurlin Granger causality test assesses short-run causal links. Findings The study finds that FD reduces CO2 emissions by 1.13% in the long run, with an insignificant short-run effect of 0.16%. Economic growth increases emissions by 11.00%, while the squared term of 0.47% supports the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. HC lowers CO2 emissions by 2.59% in the long run and 12.05% in the short run. Urbanization raises emissions by 3.01% in the long run, with a statistically insignificant short-run effect −3.48%. Granger causality reveals unidirectional links from FD and economic growth to emissions. DOLS estimates confirm the robustness of long-run relationships. Cross-sectional ARDL results show mixed short-run effects across countries. Practical implications The results indicate the importance of financial systems, HC and urbanization in reducing emissions. Green finance, environmental education and sustainable urban planning are key to climate-smart growth in leading Asian economies. Originality/value This study uses multiple estimators to robustly confirm FD's role in reducing CO2 emissions, validates the EKC and highlights the dynamic roles of HC and urbanization in reducing CO2.