Jubilee Line Extension Research Articles

Air quality impacts of new public transport provision: A causal analysis of the Jubilee Line Extension in London

Public transport is commonly associated with benefits such as reducing road traffic congestion and improving air quality. This paper focuses on evaluating the causal impact of a new public transport provision in London, the Jubilee Line Extension (JLE) in 1999, on air quality. Using meteorological normalisation and a regression discontinuity design with time as the forcing variable, we show that the JLE led to only small changes in air pollution at some specific locations; detectable changes in NOx, NO2, and O3 concentrations were found at 63%, 43% and 29% of air pollution monitoring sites, respectively. For those sites where a change in pollution was detected, the responses ranged from −2% to +1% for NO2 and -1% to 0% for O3. We calculate that the long-run effects are greater, ranging from −11% to +3% for NO2 and from −2% to +2% for O3 at sites that showed a response to the JLE. Aggregating across all sites in London for a city-wide effect, both short and long-run effects were less than 1% or insignificant. We find statistically significant increases in NO2 and O3 concentrations at some background sites, but the magnitude of effect is within +1% in the short-run and +3% in the long-run. Our analysis shows that the effect of the JLE on air pollution in some areas was greater than others, however across London the effect was small and this indicates that public transport provision on its own is not an effective strategy to improve air quality.

The net greenhouse gas impact of the Jubilee line extension in London, UK

As cities work to reduce their total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the transportation sector is lagging, accounting for a growing percentage of total emissions in many cities. The provision of public transit, and specifically urban rail transit, is widely seen as a useful tool for reducing urban transportation GHG emissions. More research, however, is needed to understand the net impact of new metro rail infrastructure on urban emissions and guide efforts to maximise the GHG savings through rail investments. This paper examines the net GHG emissions of the Jubilee line extension (JLE) in London, UK. The GHG emissions associated with construction, operation, ridership and changes in urban density associated with the provision of the new metro rail infrastructure are assessed. These components are then combined and compared to calculate the net GHG impact across the study period, which extends from opening in 1999 through 2011. The capital GHG emissions from construction of the JLE are calculated as 530 kilotonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). The initial mode shift from other rail lines and long-term mode change from automobiles result in yearly GHG savings from riders on the JLE. A quasi-experimental analysis of land-use change near the JLE finds no calculable GHG saving from increased residential density. The GHG payback period is calculated between 13 and 19 years.

Urban transport and social inequities in neighbourhoods near underground stations in Greater London

ABSTRACTSocial equity, and the contribution that transport planning can make to social equity, are increasingly attracting the attention of transport planners and researchers. This perhaps reflects the heightened levels of social inequity in cities and the concern over differential access to transport and participation in activities. This paper considers these issues by applying the Capabilities Approach to transport, in order to examine an individual’s opportunities to travel and engage in activities (capabilities) and their actual day to day travel and engagement in activities (functionings). London is selected as a case study using analysis from three Underground stations on the Jubilee Line Extension. The findings show that there are statistically significant differences in terms of capabilities and functionings across the socio-demographic characteristics of individuals, and also across different neighbourhoods in London. It is argued that unless local residents’ potential travel opportunities and actual activities, and the gaps between them, are better understood and responded to, the problem of transport-related social inequity is likely to persist in London. Therefore, we suggest that the findings from this research, including the multi-dimensional social indicators and understanding of the barriers to accessibility, could be used alongside existing approaches such as accessibility planning.

Damage assessment and monitoring for buildings on the Elizabeth line

The Elizabeth line, due to open in December 2018, crosses London from west to east. The Crossrail project to construct the Elizabeth line has seen 21km of twin-bored tunnels constructed under central London, with eight new stations built on this section. The damage assessment and monitoring carried out comprised a significant element of work in terms of the resources involved, both human and financial. The background to this work was the experience from a number of tunnelling projects in London, probably most significantly that from the London Underground Jubilee line extension. While all assets along the alignment were subject to the same process, the impact of the works around the stations and shafts was calculated to be greater than along the bored tunnels, and the extent of instrumentation and monitoring was correspondingly higher. Both automated and manual methods were used, with instrumentation installed and readily visible on many buildings in these areas throughout the duration of the works. This paper looks at the damage assessment and monitoring of buildings around the stations, focusing in particular on the new station at Tottenham Court Road. It also provides an overview of the two very different tunnel construction methods used on the project – the so-called tunnel boring machine (TBM) and sprayed concrete lining (SCL) methods – and describes how these lead to the ground movement that is the principal source of potential damage to the buildings. Finally, the paper considers briefly some of the lessons learned and how these might be applied to future urban tunnelling projects.

Greenhouse gas from ridership on the Jubilee Line Extension

This paper examines changes in travel behaviour associated with ridership on the Jubilee Line Extension in east London, UK and the resulting impacts on greenhouse gas emissions. The paper looks at initial changes in mode choice after the line opened in 1999 and ongoing mode share trends through to 2011. The initial mode shift is assessed through an analysis of published travel survey data and the annual Transport for London Rolling Origin Destination Survey. Longitudinal changes in mode share are assessed using the London Travel Demand Survey and the relationship between metro accessibility and mode choice. From 2000 to 2011 the calculated greenhouse gas savings are 338 ktCO2e; approximately equivalent to the annual average greenhouse gas emissions of 43 000 UK residents.

Revisiting the growth coalition concept to analyse the success of the Crossrail London megaproject

ABSTRACTThere is a common perception that infrastructure megaprojects are difficult to implement, as they face many obstacles (cost overruns, political barriers and time delays). This was particularly the case in the UK where many projects were difficult to develop given a complex, centralized and turbulent financial context (e.g. the jubilee Line extension, the Eurostar project). Despite this complex British system, London is developing the Crossrail mega infrastructure project which is recognized to be on time and built within a planned budget. The paper aims to analyse the reasons for the development of this project in a turbulent political and financial British system. The main argument I defend is that Crossrail benefited from the constitution of a specific and localized growth coalition. Revisiting the notion developed by Logan and Molotch, I show how the aggregation of different interests (political and economic) has been essential in the concretization of this project. Actors motivated by the will to promote the growth of London and to sustain the growth of population and jobs have been at the forefront to defend Crossrail. These elements have put Crossrail on a route of success. The paper concludes by characterizing and analysing such a success.

The use of kinematic hardening models for predicting tunnelling-induced ground movements in London Clay

The use of a kinematic hardening soil model for predicting short- and long-term ground movements due to tunnelling in London Clay is investigated. The model is calibrated against oedometer and triaxial tests on intact samples from different units of the London Clay. The calibrated model is then used in finite-element analysis to simulate the field response at St James's Park during excavation of the Jubilee Line Extension tunnels. The finite-element predictions compare well with the available field monitoring data. The importance of using consistent initial conditions for this complex boundary value problem in conjunction with the model parameters selected is highlighted. The stiffness response of different regions of the finite-element mesh indicates that the rate at which the stiffness degrades and the stiffness response further away from the tunnel boundary affect the short-term predictions significantly. The long-term predictions confirm that the compression characteristics of the soil control the magnitude of the consolidation settlements and its permeability the shape of the long-term settlement profiles.

Natural and Anthropogenic Geohazards in Greater London Observed from Geological and ERS-1/2 and ENVISAT Persistent Scatterers Ground Motion Data: Results from the EC FP7-SPACE PanGeo Project

We combine geological data and ground motion estimates from satellite ERS-1/2 and ENVISAT persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI) to delineate areas of observed natural and anthropogenic geohazards in the administrative area of Greater London (United Kingdom). This analysis was performed within the framework of the EC FP7-SPACE PanGeo project, and by conforming to the interpretation and geohazard mapping methodology extensively described in the Production Manual (cf. http://www.pangeoproject.eu ). We discuss the results of the generation of the PanGeo digital geohazard mapping product for Greater London, and analyse the potential of PSI, geological data and the PanGeo methodology to identify areas of observed geohazards. Based on the analysis of PSI ground motion data sets for the years 1992–2000 and 2002–2010 and geology field campaigns, we identify 25 geohazard polygons, covering a total of ~650 km2. These include not only natural processes such as compaction of deposits on the River Thames flood plain and slope instability, but also anthropogenic instability due to groundwater management and changes in the Chalk aquifer, recent engineering works such as those for the Jubilee Line Extension project and electricity tunnelling in proximity to the River Thames, and the presence of made ground. In many instances, natural and anthropogenic observed geohazards overlap, therefore indicating interaction of different processes over the same areas. In terms of ground area covered, the dominant geohazard is anthropogenic land subsidence caused by groundwater abstraction for a total of ~300 km2, followed by natural compression of River Thames sediments over ~105 km2. Observed ground motions along the satellite line-of-sight are as high as +29.5 and −25.3 mm/year, and indicate a combination of land surface processes comprising ground subsidence and uplift, as well as downslope movements. Across the areas of observed geohazards, urban land cover types from the Copernicus (formerly GMES) EEA European Urban Atlas, e.g., continuous and discontinuous urban fabric and industrial units, show the highest average velocities away from the satellite sensor, and the smallest standard deviations (~0.7–1.0 mm/year). More rural land cover types such as agricultural, semi-natural and green areas reveal the highest spatial variability (up to ~4.4 mm/year), thus suggesting greater heterogeneity of observed motion rates within these land cover types. Areas of observed motion in the PSI data for which a geological interpretation cannot be found with sufficient degree of certainty are also identified, and their possible causes discussed. Although present in Greater London, some geohazard types such as shrink–swell clays and ground dissolution are not highlighted by the interpretation of PSI annual motion rates. Reasons for absence of evidence of the latter in the PSI data are discussed, together with difficulties related to the identification of good radar scatterers in landsliding areas.

Public transport investment and local regeneration: A comparison of London׳s Jubilee Line Extension and the Madrid Metrosur

Despite a long-standing tradition within transport studies research, capturing and assessing the long-term impacts of major transport investment projects is still problematic. This is partly due to the relative paucity of empirical data, as well as the considerable research effort involved in undertaking appropriate data collection for detailed longitudinal evaluations. Past studies suggest that economic impacts can vary significantly depending on the type of interventions, the locations and geographical areas served, pre-existing market conditions and other policy and planning factors. However, another issue for evaluation is the extent to which the different studies that are available are comparable in terms of their methodologies, which makes the synthesis of research findings across different case studies extremely difficult.Whilst we are not able to overcome all of these methodological issues in the context of this paper, our main objective is to construct a typology of the ‘success’ factors for securing economic uplift from such projects. The main aim of our research and this paper is to make key gaps in the evidence-base concerning the economic and development impacts of major transport infrastructure impact investments more transparent. This will allow policymakers and other investors to be better informed about the likely success of these investments for the regeneration of local areas under different pre-existing conditions. It also helps to identify where there are current gaps in the knowledge base and where a lack of adequate data prevents the potential to identify economic uplifts and regeneration outcomes. An important finding of the research is that in the case of the Jubilee Line Extension and the Madrid Metrosur positive economic benefits occurred most frequently around the stations where there were already enforceable land use plans and complementary policies in place to increase urban densities and encourage mixed land uses, alongside restricted car and good walking access to stations.

The Challenges and Opportunities for Mega-Infrastructure Projects and Archaeology

Jay Carver’s paper is very useful in summarising the process that Crossrail has followed and identifing the key factors in managing the risk, and maximising the benefits, associated with archaeology on major infrastructure projects.<br />MOLA (Museum of London Archaeology) has been involved in many of London’s infrastructure projects, at the consultancy, planning, and mitigation stages. Over the past 30 years we have witnessed an evolution in the approach taken when dealing with the historic environment on major projects such as the Jubilee Line Extension, and the recent rail improvements to the East London Line and Thameslink.

Effect of anisotropy in ground movements caused by tunnelling

This paper presents closed-form analytical solutions for estimating far-field ground deformations caused by shallow tunnelling in a linear elastic soil mass with cross-anisotropic stiffness properties. The solutions describe two-dimensional ground deformations for uniform convergence (uε) and ovalisation (uδ) modes of a circular tunnel cavity, based on the complex formulation of planar elasticity and superposition of fundamental singularity solutions. The analyses are used to interpret measurements of ground deformations caused by open-face shield construction of a Jubilee Line Extension (JLE) tunnel in London Clay at a well-instrumented site in St James's Park. Anisotropic stiffness parameters are estimated from hollow-cylinder tests on intact block samples of London Clay (from the Heathrow Airport Terminal 5 project), and the selection of the two input parameters is based on a least-squares optimisation using measurements of ground deformations. The results show consistent agreement with the measured distributions of surface and subsurface, vertical and horizontal displacement components, and anisotropic stiffness properties appear to have little effect on the pattern of ground movements. The results provide an interesting counterpoint to prior studies using finite-element analyses that have reported difficulties in predicting the distribution of ground movements for the instrumented section of the JLE tunnel.

If We Build it, Will They Pay? Predicting Property Price Effects of Transport Innovations

In this study I apply a gravity-type labor-market accessibility model to the Greater London Area to investigate house price capitalization effects. The spatial scope of labor-market effects is found to be about 60 minutes. Doubling accessibility increases the utility of an average household by about 12%. I combine the gravity approach with a transport decision model that takes into account the urban rail network architecture, allows for mode switching, and thus accounts for the effective accessibility offered by a station, to predict the property price effects of the 1999 Jubilee Line and DLR extension. A considerable degree of heterogeneity is predicted both in terms of the magnitude as well as the spatial extent of price effects around new stations. A quasi-experimental property price analysis reveals that the model performs well in predicting the effective capitalization effects, suggesting that the approach might be a viable ingredient in transport planning.

Effect of building stiffness on tunnelling-induced ground movement

The progressive response of two–three storey masonry buildings to bored tunnelling on the Jubilee Line Extension in London is investigated in order to determine the effect of building stiffness on tunnelling-induced ground movement. The masonry buildings, at Moodkee Street and Keetons Estate, were affected by tunnelling with earth pressure balance machines on Contract 105 of the Jubilee Line Extension. Bending deformations and axial strain induced in these structures are compared to greenfield ground deformations and strain in order to infer the effect of building stiffness. The modifying influence of the stiffness of these buildings on ground movement is interpreted using the Potts and Addenbrooke [Potts D.M., Addenbrooke, T.I., 1997. A structure’s influence on tunnelling induced ground movements. Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. Geotech. Eng. 125 (2), 109–125] method, which is based on a series of finite element analyses. The inferred building stiffness that can be used for design purposes with the Potts and Addenbrooke method is compared to an estimation for a Class A [Lambe, T.W., 1973. Predictions in geotechnical engineering. Geotechnique 23 (2), 149–202] prediction exercise by Mair and Taylor [Mair, R.J., Taylor, R.N., 2001. Settlement predictions for Neptune, Murdoch and Clegg Houses and adjacent masonry walls. Building response to tunnelling – case studies from construction of the Jubilee Line Extension, London. In: Burland, J.B., Standing, J.R., Jardine, F.M. (Eds.), Projects and Methods, vol. 1. CIRIA SP200, pp. 217–228 (CIRIA and Thomas Telford, 2001). ISBN: 0 7277 30177] using the same method. As a result an alternative approach is proposed for estimating the relative bending stiffness of masonry structures for future use with the Potts and Addenbrooke method when making simple predictions.

Volume loss experienced on open-face London Clay tunnels

This paper describes the nature of ground movement observed during construction of the Jubilee Line Extension at St James's Park and beneath Elizabeth House for different stages of tunnelling in London Clay, using open-face shield construction and sprayed concrete linings respectively. Volume loss is defined as the volume of ground loss as a proportion of the final tunnel volume and is measured in the plane of the tunnel. Volume losses corresponding to different phases of tunnelling at St James's Park and beneath Elizabeth House are identified in the paper. A companion paper presents a new approach to estimating volume losses for each phase of open-face tunnelling in London Clay.

The Cistercian Abbey of St. Mary Stratford Langthorne, Essex: Archaeological Excavations for the London Underground Limited Jubilee Line Extension Project. Bruno Barber , Steve Chew , Tony Dyson , Bill White

<i>The Cistercian Abbey of St. Mary Stratford Langthorne, Essex: Archaeological Excavations for the London Underground Limited Jubilee Line Extension Project</i>. Bruno Barber , Steve Chew , Tony Dyson , Bill White

Estimating volume loss for open-face tunnels in London Clay

A modification to the load factor approach to estimating undrained volume loss for open-face tunnelling in London Clay is proposed. The modified approach is based on the nature of ground movement observed during construction of the Jubilee Line Extension at St James's Park and Elizabeth House for different stages of open-face shield tunnel construction and tunnelling using sprayed concrete linings, described in a companion paper. The new approach is shown to provide good estimates of the volume loss observed for open-face shield tunnelling in London Clay at Green Park and Regents Park.

Unexpected tunnelling volume losses in the Westminster area, London

During construction of the running tunnels for the Jubilee Line Extension, London, large variations in tunnelling volume loss were measured over about a 2 km distance between Waterloo, south of the Thames, and the area north of St James's Park. At the design stage, a value of volume loss of 2% was adopted, which was thought to be conservative. In practice, volume losses of greater than 3% were measured in Westminster and in St James's Park, south of the lake. North of the St James's Park lake volume losses were less than 2%, as expected. Reliable estimates of volume loss are required for the planning and approval of future tunnelling projects in London, and so a detailed investigation was undertaken to establish the reasons for the observed differences. Two primary and interlinked causes for the large volume losses are identified. First, the method of tunnelling and construction control: south of the lake up to 1·9 m of unsupported tunnel heading was often advanced ahead of the shield, and as a result about 50% of the measured volume loss occurred in front of the shield. Second, the geological conditions: the crown of the westbound tunnel lies just below, and the invert of the eastbound tunnel just above, a division of the London Clay that contains numerous sand and silt partings. There was therefore a considerable potential for loosening and softening, particularly with excavation significantly ahead of the shield. Also, there is less clay cover and lower strengths to the south of the lake owing to past erosion (the study area straddles two of the Thames terraces). This case study highlights the importance of taking the engineering geology into account, even in a city such as London where there are decades of experience of tunnelling and the ground conditions are well characterised. The message is equally applicable to many other cities where large subsurface infrastructure projects are planned.

Wheels of Fortune: Self-Funding Infrastructure and the Free Market Case for a Land Tax

It is often assumed that government intervention is required to bring to fruition large scale infrastructure projects because the large initial capital outlays such projects require must be funded from the public purse. In Wheels of Fortune, Fred Harrison shows that large scale infrastructure projects can be made self-funding. Infrastructure projects almost always bring about a large increase in the value of adjoining land. For example, it is estimated that the London Underground Jubilee Line extension increased adjoining land values by close to GBP3 billion. When such infrastructure projects are funded by government, they therefore involve a substantial transfer of wealth from a large number of taxpayers to a small number of property owners. Harrison argues that a fairer and more efficient means to fund infrastructure projects is to capture and use the increases in land values that they bring.

Fraud Trials: A Brave New World

The management of long fraud trials has come under the spotlight again following the collapse of the Jubilee Line Extension case. Three major changes to fraud trials procedures are in the process of being introduced: the Lord Chief Justice's complex trials management protocol, a new offence of fraud (the Fraud Bill), and the removal of jury trial (implementing s. 43 of the Criminal Justice Act 2003). This article examines these initiatives and debates and considers whether they will improve the quality of justice.

Monitoring ground deformation in tunnelling: Current practice in transportation tunnels

Ground deformation monitoring in tunnelling is a common means for selecting and controlling the excavation and support methods among those predicted in design, ensuring safety during tunnel excavation (including personnel safety inside the tunnel and safety of structures located at ground surface) and construction quality. This paper describes the types of ground deformation measurement often used in tunnelling, the difficulties in obtaining these measurements, the methods most commonly used for their evaluation, and the use of deformation measurements (a) in the selection of tunnel excavation and support systems and (b) in establishing early warning systems against ground collapse or damage to structures at ground surface. Examples of ground deformation monitoring and their application in tunnel design and construction are illustrated by cases from the Jubilee Line Extension of London Underground [ Burland et al., 2001 [Burland, J.B., Standing, J.R. and Jardine, F.M. (2001) “Building Response to Tunnelling” Case studies from construction of the Jubilee Line Extension, London. Thomas Telford publishers, London]; Mair, 2001 [Mair, R.J. (2001) “Research on tunnelling-induced ground movements and their effects on buildings–lessons from the Jubilee Line Extension”, Proc. Int. Conf. on Response of Buildings to Excavation-induced Ground Movements, Imperial College, London, 17–18 July, CIRIA Special Publication 199, London, pp. 3–26], from Lines 2 and 3 of the Athens Metro ( Kavvadas, 1998 [Kavvadas, M. (1998) “Analysis and performance of the NATM excavation of an underground station for the Athens Metro”, Proc. 4th Int. Conf. on Case Histories in Geotechnical Engineering, St. Louis, Missouri USA, March 1998, paper No 6.11]; Kavvadas, 1999 [Kavvadas, M. (1999) “Experiences from the construction of the Athens Metro project”, Proc. 12th European Conference of Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering, Amsterdam, June 1999, Invited lecture, Vol 3, pp. 1665–1676]) and from the 9-km long Kallidromo railway tunnel in Greece. In the first two examples, ground deformation monitoring aims to ensure that structures at ground surface are not harmed by the tunnelling operations. In the third case, the objective is the optimisation of temporary support requirements and early warning against potential collapse.