Istituto Superiore Di Sanità Research Articles

Italian National Surveillance of Alcohol-Based Hand Rub Consumption in a Healthcare Setting-A Three-Year Analysis: 2020-2022.

Background/Objectives: Hand hygiene (HH) is pivotal in mitigating infectious disease transmission and enhancing public health outcomes. This study focuses on detailing the national surveillance system for alcohol-based hand rub (ABHR) consumption in healthcare facilities across Italy, presenting results from a comprehensive three-year evaluation period, from 2020 to 2022. It aims to delineate this surveillance system and report on ABHR consumption trends in various Regions/Autonomous Provinces (Rs/APs). Methods: ABHR consumption data, collected through the ABHR Italian national surveillance system, coordinated by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS), were analyzed. Statistical methods, e.g., the Mann-Whitney test, were used to assess trends in ABHR consumption, expressed in liters per 1000 patient days (L/1000PD). Results: The results show significant variation in ABHR consumption across Rs/APs and over the years studied. National median ABHR consumption decreased from 2020 to 2022, with a significant reduction from a median of 24.5 L/1000PD in 2020 to 20.4 L/1000PD in 2021 and 15.6 L/1000PD in 2022. Conclusions: The decline in ABHR consumption raises concerns about the ongoing adherence to HH practices in Italian healthcare settings. This underscores the essential role that systematic ABHR monitoring and improved surveillance play in enhancing HH compliance, suggesting that sustained and strategic efforts are fundamental to uphold high standards of hygiene and to effectively respond to fluctuating ABHR usage trends over time. Further research is needed to explore barriers to effective ABHR use and to develop targeted strategies to improve HH practices.

Technical and health governance aspects of the external quality assessment system for classical and new psychoactive substances analysis testing in blood

New psychoactive substances (NPS) are uncontrolled analogues of existing drugs or newly synthesized chemicals that exhibit psychopharmacological effects. Due to their diverse nature, composition, and increasing prevalence, they present significant challenges to the healthcare system and drug control policies. In response, healthcare system laboratories have developed analytical methods to detect NPS in biological samples. As a Regional Reference Centre, the Sicilian CRQ Laboratory (Regional Laboratory for Quality Control) developed and conducted an External Quality Assessment (EQA) study to assess, in collaboration with the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS), the ability of different Italian laboratories to identify NPS and traditional drugs of abuse (DOA) in biological matrices.Two blood samples were spiked with substances from various drug classes, including synthetic cannabinoids, cathinones, synthetic opiates, and benzodiazepines, at concentrations ranging from 2 to 10 ng/mL. The blood samples were freeze-dried to ensure the stability of DOA and NPS. Twenty-two laboratories from the Italian healthcare system participated in this assessment. The information provided by the laboratories during the registration in an in-house platform included a general description of the laboratory, analytical technique, and the chosen panels of analytes. The same platform was employed to collect and statistically analyze the data and record laboratory feedback and comments.The evaluation of the results revealed that the participating laboratories employed three different techniques for analyzing the samples: GC-MS, LC-MS, and immunoenzymatic methods. Approximately 90 % of the laboratories utilized LC-MS techniques. Around 40 % of false negative results were obtained, with the worst results in the identification of 5-chloro AB PINACA. The results showed that laboratories that used LC-MS methods obtained better specificity and sensitivity compared to the laboratories using other techniques.The results obtained from this first assessment underscore the importance of external quality control schemes in identifying the most effective analytical techniques for detecting trace molecules in biological matrices. Since the judicial authorities have not yet established cut-off values for NPS, this EQA will enable participating laboratories to share their analytical methods and expertise, aiming to establish common criteria for NPS identification.

Hepatitis C virus screening in Piemonte: an effective strategy to eliminate HCV chronic infections

Abstract In 2016, WHO set the goal of elimination of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) by 2030. Globally, about 58 million people have chronic HCV, which causes cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma and death (around 300000 in 2019), representing a heavy burden for public health. In Italy, the incidence of HCV acute infection is around 0.11 per 100000, and the estimated number of non-diagnosed chronic infections is 280000. In order to reach WHO's goal, the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) and the Ministry of Health implemented a strategy based on the detection of silent chronic infections and their treatment with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), which cure around 95% of HCV infections. Therefore, in 2022, Regione Piemonte started a screening program contacting all residents born between 1969 and 1989. The screening was performed with rapid blood tests (antibodies detection, sensibility and specificity ca. 99%), and in case of a positive result, a HCV-RNA test was offered to confirm chronic infection and the need for treatment with DAAs. The Local Health Authority TO3, invited 36120 out of 158017 eligible residents (temporary and permanent), in the period March 2022 - April 2023 with invitation letters or catch-up strategies on other occasions; 6000 rapid blood tests were used (16.6% of invited population), and 11 (0.19%) tested positive. The RNA test confirmed 5 (0.08%) results. All the positive subjects were referred to 2 hospitals for DAAs treatment. As demonstrated by ISS, HCV screening could represent an effective mean to meet WHO's goal of HCV elimination by 2030 and also allow us to reduce HCV's burden on public health; although, with the current low adhesion rate, these results may not be reachable. Therefore, it is necessary to implement health promotion campaigns, to involve more stakeholders, including social and healthcare associations, General Practitioners and policy-makers, as the entire population's health would benefit from a successful HCV elimination program. Key messages • HCV and viral hepatitis represent a heavy burden for public health, high costs for Health Systems and severely affect the quality of life of subjects with un-diagnosed chronic infections. • The availability of reliable, non-invasive, tests and of extremely effective treatments should move policy-makers to allocate more resources in the implementation of HCV eradication strategies.

Capacity building to boost information and communication skills inside an institute of research

To enhance its visibility, the Library of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) along with the Scientific Communication Unit of the same institution delivered a set of informal online training sessions, or webinars, on their fields of expertise: information retrieval, publication, effective communication, and research evaluation, specifically addressed to internal users. The collaboration was extremely useful in terms of improved knowledge on skills available among the personnel of these two services. It increased trust in the competencies of internal staff and at the same time it contributed to develop awareness of the value of the services rendered. Skills to use available online resources for training were improved as well as ISS staff cohesion favouring the development of new collaborations.

The Rare Book Collection of the Library of the Italian National Institute of Health: from the past to the present

The Library of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS), the Italian National Institute of Health, is the main library for public health and biomedical research in Italy and holds a small but valuable special collection of ancient books. Known as the Rare Book Collection, this fund consists of over 1200 scientific printed volumes published between the XVI and the XIX century. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the challenges and the process undertaken by the Library to share and digitalize this Collection.

The role of analytical pharmacotoxicology in adressing the main functions of the National Early Warning System on NPS

In compliance with the European Council Decision 2005/387/JHA, the Italian AntiDrug Policies Department designated the National Center for Addiction and Doping of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) to organize and manage the National Early Warning System (NEWS) on New Psychoactive Substances (NPS) to promote a rapid exchange of information on NPS within Italy and between Italy and the EU. The analytical pharmacotoxicology Unit of the Center supports NEWS with screening and confirmation of NPS presence in conventional and non-conventional biological matrices from acute and fatal intoxication cases. Furthermore, yearly, pure standards of new NPS are tested and provided to Laboratories from collaborative centres and proficiency testing on NPS in oral fluid and hair are organized. Different analytical technologies, including high-sensitivity gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and tandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS-MS), liquid chromatography-tandem mass spctrometry (LC-MS-MS) and ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-high-resolution mass spectrometry (UHPLC-HRMS) are used for a screening and confirmation analysis of classic drugs, prescription medicines and new psychoactive substances in and their metabolites in blood, plasma, urine, hair and oral fluid from intoxication cases and clinical trials. Sample preparation involves both liquid-liquid or solid phase extraction. Dilute and shoot methodology is also applied. During 2021 and first months of 2022, around 80 different psychoactive substances, including new synthetic opioids and/or metabolites were identified in urine from 296 spanish patients with a history of opioid use disorder; 12 classic drugs and NPS were detected in hair from 300 mexican pregnant women; cocaine, THC, heroin, methadone, ketamine and mephedrone and metabolites were determined in urine from 76 italian prisoners; JWH-122 and JWH-210, UR-144 were quantified in oral fluid from consumers and finally some cases of intoxications with fentanyl, norfentanyl and analogs were also disclosed. Furthermore, two exercises of Proficiency testing for NPS in oral fluid and hair were organized. Samples from both matrices were prepared in cooperation with Comedical (Trento, Italy). For the 2021 round classic drugs together with 5-fluoro CUMYL-PeGACLONE, 5-fluoro MDMB-PICA, AB-FUBINACA,5F-ADB, Ethylone, Euthylone, Furanylfentanyl, Ocfentanyl, Isobutyryl fentanyl, Fentanyl and Isotonitazene were included. For the 2022 round, classic drugs plus 5-MMPA, Methoxpropamine, Brorphine, Butonitazene, Etodesnitazene, Flunitazene, 4-fluoro MDMB-BUTICA, 5-fluoro CUMYL—PICA, 5-fluoro EDMB-PICA, 3-Methylmethcathinone, ADB-4en-PINACA, MDMB-4en-PICA were comprises. About 20 different pharmacotoxicological national laboratories participated in the exercised with very variable quali-quantitative results. Although the NPS phenomenon is not uniform, it is well known as a global problem, concerning all the region of the world. Due to the mutating nature of the phenomenon, we believe that investments in toxicological and forensic analytical data sources are strongly needed. Differently from the past when psychotropic drugs occupied the fingers of two hands, in the 21th century, more than 1000 NPS have been identified. Not all of them found the same diffusion in the illicit market, but many of them are temporary adulterant of substitute of controlled compounds or finally fake drugs. The values of accurate and immediately available toxicological and forensic data are crucial to the implementation of national and international early warning system on NPS. Indeed, the drug related severe intoxications and fatalities are seldom associated with the consumption of one substance alone. Drug consumption patterns are often characterized by polyconsumption of both classical drugs and NPS and laboratories supporting emergency rooms, forensic toxicologies and police forces must be enabled to identify the substance/s causing the acute or chronic intoxication or a fatality.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in adults 2021: A clinical practice guideline of the Italian Association for the Study of the Liver (AISF), the Italian Society of Diabetology (SID) and the Italian Society of Obesity (SIO).

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common and emerging liver disease in adults, paralleling the epidemic of obesity and diabetes, and leading to worrisome events (hepatocellular carcinoma and end-stage liver disease). In the last years, mounting evidence added insights about epidemiology, natural history, diagnosis and lifestyle-based or drug treatment of NAFLD. In this rapidly evolving scenario, members of the Associazione Italiana per lo Studio del Fegato (AISF), the Società Italiana di Diabetologia (SID) and the Società Italiana dell'Obesità (SIO) reviewed current knowledge on NAFLD. The quality of the published evidence is graded, and practical recommendations are made following the rules and the methodology suggested in Italy by the Centro Nazionale per l'Eccellenza delle cure (CNEC) and Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS). Whenever possible, recommendations are placed within the context the Italian Healthcare system, with reference to specific experience and local diagnostic and management resources. Level of evidence: Level of evidence of recommendations for each PICO question were reported according to available evidence.

Technologies to Support Frailty, Disability, and Rare Diseases: Towards a Monitoring Experience during the COVID-19 Pandemic Emergency.

This report illustrates the design and results of an activity of surveillance proposed by the National Centre for Innovative Technologies in Public Health and the National Centre for Rare Diseases of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità with the aim of monitoring the state-of-use of technologies by people with frailty, disabilities, and rare diseases. The results of the surveillance activity reported in this report are as follows: (a) An international Webinar; (b) A Full report published by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS); (c) an electronic survey tool, for periodic monitoring; (d) an initial summary of the survey (15 September–30 November 2020), giving an overall picture relating to the state-of-use of technologies by the interviewed; (e) an understanding of the needs that emerged, causing reflection on the current state-of-the-art and offering important stimuli for all the stakeholders involved.

Comparison of hospitalizations and deaths from COVID-19 2021 versus 2020 in Italy: surprises and implications.

Data from the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) emphasized by the media indicate that COVID-19 vaccination reduces related infections, hospitalizations and deaths. However, a comparison showed significantly more hospitalizations and intensive care unit accesses in the corresponding months and days in 2021 versus 2020and no significant differences in deaths. The combination of non-alternative hypotheses may help explain the discrepancy between the results in the entire population and the vaccination's success claimed by the ISS in reducing infections, serious cases and deaths: a bias: counting as unvaccinated also "those vaccinated with 1 dose in the two weeks following the inoculation", and as incompletely vaccinated also "those vaccinated with 2 doses within two weeks of the 2nd inoculation".a systematic error: counting as unvaccinated also "vaccinated with 1 dose in the two weeks following the inoculation", and as incompletely vaccinated also "vaccinated with 2 doses within two weeks of the 2nd inoculation". Many reports show an increase in COVID-19 cases in these time-windows, and related data should be separated levels of protective effectiveness in vaccinated people, often considered stable, actually show signs of progressive reduction over time, which could contribute to reducing the overall population resultunvaccinated people show more severe disease than in 2020, supporting also in humans the theory of imperfect vaccines, which offer less resistance to the entry of germs than the resistance later encountered inside the human body. This favors the selection of more resistant and virulent mutants, that can be spread by vaccinated people. This damages first the unvaccinated people, but ultimately the whole community. An open scientific debate is needed to discuss these hypotheses, following the available evidence (as well as to discuss the inconsistent theory of unvaccinated young people as reservoirs of viruses/mutants), to assess the long-term and community impact of different vaccination strategies.

An Italy-China Collaboration for Promoting Public Mental Health Recommendations During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

The rapid evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emergency involved Italy as the first European country. Meanwhile, China was the only other country to experience the emergency scenario, implementing public health recommendations and raising concerns about the mental health of the population. The Italian National Institute of Health [Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS)] reviewed relevant scientific literature in mental health to evaluate the best clinical practices and established the collaboration with the WHO, World Psychiatry Association, and China to support the public health system in a phase of acute emergency. This process permitted the definition of organizational and practical-operational Italian guidelines for the protection of the well-being of healthcare workers. These guidelines have been extensively disseminated within the Italian territory for maximum stakeholder utilization.

Obesity as a risk factor for hospitalization in COronaVirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) patients: Analysis of the Tuscany regional database

Background and aimsAim of the present study is to determine the role of obesity as a risk factor for COronaVirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) hospitalization. Methods and resultsThis observational study was performed using Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) Tuscany COVID-19 database by the Agenzia Regionale Sanità (ARS), including all COVID-19 cases registered until April 30th, 2020, with reported information on chronic diseases. The principal outcome was hospitalization. An age and gender-adjusted logistic regression model was used to assess the association of clinical and demographic characteristics with hospitalization. Further multivariate models were applied. Of 4481 included subjects (36.9% aged over 70 years), 1907 (42.6%) were admitted to hospital. Obesity was associated with hospitalization after adjusting for age and gender. The association of obesity with hospitalization retained statistical significance in a fully adjusted model, including possible confounders (OR: 2.99 [IC 95% 2.04–4.37]). The effect of obesity was more evident in younger (<70 years) than in older (≥70 years) subjects. ConclusionsThe present data confirm that obesity is associated with an increased risk of hospitalization in patients with COVID-19. Interestingly, the association of obesity with hospitalization was greater in younger (<70 years) patients.

Rapid scientific update response to public health professions during Phase I of COVID-19 pandemic

IssuePreparedness can be considered the Achilles heel in Western Coutries to adequately fight Sars-CoV-2 pandemy. The Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) has been challenged to give rapid technical and scientific advices to the State and Regions on a huge variety of Sars-CoV-2 aspects related to public health.Description of the problemRapid and timely accumulation of knowledge and empirical evidence is critical for policymakers and emergency managers to maximally inform their decisions through scientific evidence and to better guide and mobilise the expertise of academics and general practitioners towards effective solutions.ResultsAn ad hoc “Scientific Literature working group” at ISS in the period 23/03 - 31/05 screened a total of 4,568 pre-prints and 15,590 peer reviewed papers extracted from PubMed, arXiv.org, medRxiv and bioRxiv, which gave rise to the following deliverables: a) a daily pre-prints alert selection delivered to ISS President for the routine national Scientific Technical Committee meetings on Sars-CoV-2 chaired by Italian Civil Protection (still ongoing), and, b) a weekly open access issue of Covid Contents publications (8 volumes, https://www.iss.it/en/covid-contents), as summary of most interesting peer-reviewed papers for public health professions.LessonsThe needed cross-cutting approach is leading to: interdisciplinarity enhancement within the ISS; coverage of broad expertise areas and interest of health care providers; cross-linkage between the different aspects/disciplines involved in this pandemic and share of experiences.Key messages Committed Institutions have the responsibility to support practitioners and decision makers to understand relevant aspects of medical, physical, occupational and public safety, in case of emergency.The Silos culture has to be overcome. There is nothing more powerful in any Institution than having all researchers rowing fiercely in the same direction.

Profiling biopsychosocial health of cancer-diagnosed elderly in Italy by Passi d’Argento, 2016-2017

Abstract Background PASSI d'Argento (PdA) is an Italian population-based surveillance system, coordinated by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) and carried out by the Local Health Units (LHUs). PdA monitors wide-ranged health related-behaviours in the elderly (65+) living in Italy as per the three pillars of the “Active Healthy Ageing” framework: Health, Participation, Security. Methods The PdA sample is randomly selected from the LHU lists, stratified by sex and age. 22,811 records have been collected in 2016-2017 on a representative sample of residents aged over65, not being hospitalised, in long-term care, in a nursing home or prison. Results 3,019 respondents resulted cancer-diagnosed elderly (CDE) reporting cancer diagnosis or confirmation, leukaemia and lymphomas included (annual average prevalence of 12.8%, Confidence Intervals 95%: 12.1-13.4%; one million and 729 thousand people). CDE refer: poorer health conditions (22%) than Chronic Elderly Patients (CEP; 18%) and Healthy Elderly (HE; 5%), sight impairment (12%), hearing loss (15%) and chewing problems (14%). CDE (10%) and CEP (11%) are more prone to fall than HE do (6%). Disability accounts for 21% in CDE and CEP vs. 12% in HE. A multivariate analysis confirms a compromised psychophysical health profile in CDE vs. HE, and vs. CEP. CDE behave still unhealthily, are insufficiently advised by health professionals, do not comply with the seasonal flu vaccination [Health]. CDE face increased risk for isolation or cognitive decline: they experience lower social connectedness (17%) than CEP (20%) and HE (28%) [Participation], and perceive higher neighbourhood insecurity (19%) than how CEP (17%) and HE (13%) do [Security]. Conclusions PdA data on the poor biopsychosocial health profile of CDE highlight to what extent healthy behaviours and prevention can ameliorate their quality of life PdA calls for global action strategies in Italy, which aim at taking complete charge of CDE and also CEP. Key messages In Italy, elderly cancer survivors show poor biopsychosocial health profile and overall quality of life. By modifying behaviours, elderly suffering from any cancer or chronic disease can age healthily.

How to Obtain an Orthodontic Virtual Patient through Superimposition of Three-Dimensional Data: A Systematic Review

Background: This systematic review summarizes the current knowledge on the superimposition of three-dimensional (3D) diagnostic records to realize an orthodontic virtual patient. The aim of this study is to analyze the accuracy of the state-of-the-art digital workflow. Methods: The research was carried out by an electronic and manual query effectuated from ISS (Istituto Superiore di Sanità in Rome) on three different databases (MEDLINE, Cochrane Library and ISI WEB OF SCIENCE) up to 31st January 2020. The search focused on studies that superimposed at least two different 3D records to build up a 3D virtual patient—information about the devices used to acquire 3D data, the software used to match data and the superimposition method applied have been summarized. Results: 1374 titles were retrieved from the electronic search. After title-abstract screening, 65 studies were selected. After full-text analysis, 21 studies were included in the review. Different 3D datasets were used: facial skeleton (FS), extraoral soft tissues (ST) and dentition (DENT). The information provided by the 3D data was superimposed in four different combinations: FS + DENT (13 papers), FS + ST (5 papers), ST + DENT (2 papers) and all the types (FS + ST + DENT) (1 paper). Conclusions: The surface-based method was most frequently used for 3D objects superimposition (11 papers), followed by the point-based method (6 papers), with or without fiducial markers, and the voxel-based method (1 paper). Most of the papers analyzed the accuracy of the superimposition procedure (15 papers), while the remaining were proof-of-principles (10 papers) or compared different methods (3 papers). Further studies should focus on the definition of a gold standard. The patient is going to have a huge advantage from complete digital planning when more information about the spatial relationship of anatomical structures are needed: ectopic, impacted and supernumerary teeth, root resorption and angulations, cleft lip and palate (CL/P), alveolar boundary conditions, periodontally compromised patients, temporary anchorage devices (TADs), maxillary transverse deficiency, airway analyses, obstructive sleep apnea (OSAS), TMJ disorders and orthognathic and cranio-facial surgery.

Evaluation and Management of Patients with Methomyl Poisoning – A Case Report

The Apulian Poison Centre (PC) of Foggia, Italy, annually manages numerous consultations concerning certain or suspected poisonings from pesticides, starting at the same time a careful activity related to the risk assessment phase. The management of the exposure to pesticides and to other chemicals, and the alerting of the “National center for chemicals, cosmetics and consumer protection” at the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS), actively contributes to the improvement of products quality and safety. Thus, leading to a reduction in the number of intoxications - and therefore of the accesses to the emergency services - allows greater protection for workers, bystanders, residents and consumers. The reported case of methomyl poisoning has been of fundamental importance both from the medical point of view and for the management of the intoxicated patient, both for the risk assessment actions, and for cooperation with the competent authorities, generating discussion points on the regulations in force between PCs and National Competent Authority. It follows that the feedback of intoxication in an emergency can lead to improvements in the management and risk mitigation measures in order to reach a greater protection of human, animal, and environmental health. In addition, the regulatory feedback deriving from these reports is an input to the increase product quality improvement (mixtures, labels, packaging, and risk communication) leading to a greater protection of potential exposed subjects. The importance of creating an information and management network that allows the optimization of the flow of information deriving from PCs arises. The actions taken are therefore described, both relating to the management of the emergency, and relating to the subsequent information flow and to the measures for containing the consequent risks.

Parallel epidemics, or nearly so: Certainties and uncertainties about SARS-CoV-2 in Italy

Parallel epidemics, or nearly so: Certainties and uncertainties about SARS-CoV-2 in Italy

The Italian External Quality Assessment Program for Cystic Fibrosis Sweat Chloride Test: Does Active Participation Improve the Quality?

(1) Background: Diagnostic testing for cystic fibrosis (CF) is based on a sweat chloride test (SCT) considering the appropriate signs and symptoms of the disease and results of a gene mutation analysis. In 2014, the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) established a pilot Italian external quality assessment program for CF SCT (Italian EQA-SCT), which is now a third party service carried out by the ISS. (2) Methods: The ongoing scheme is prospective, enrollment is voluntary, and the payment of a fee is required. Results are shared through a dedicated web-facility. Assessment covers the analysis, interpretation, and reporting of results. (3) Results: Thirteen, fifteen, sixteen, and fifteen different laboratories, respectively, participated from 2015 to 2016 and from 2018 to 2019 in the Italian EQA-SCT scheme. Eleven different laboratories participated each year in all four rounds of the Italian EQA-SCT. (4) Conclusions: The overall results obtained from the laboratories participating constantly clearly show that their qualitative and quantitative performance improved significantly. This is due to the opportunity—after receiving the EQA results—to constantly review their performance and address any inconsistencies. We firmly believe that participation in the EQA program will improve the quality of participating laboratories and that EQA participation should become mandatory as a fundamental requirement for laboratory accreditation.

Commentary: Obesity: The “Achilles heel” for COVID-19?

Commentary: Obesity: The “Achilles heel” for COVID-19?

Predicting disease outbreaks: evaluating measles infection with Wikipedia Trends.

The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the temporal correlation between Wikitrends and conventional surveillance data generated for measles infection reported by bulletin of Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS). The reported cases of measles were selected from July 2015 to October 2018. Wikipedia Trends was used to assess how many times a specific page was read by users, data were extracted as daily data and aggregated on a weekly and monthly basis. The following data were extracted: number of views by users from 1 July 2015 to 31 October 2018 of the Morbillo, Vaccinazione del Morbillo, Vaccinazione MPR and Macchie di Koplik pages (Measles, Measles Vaccination, MPR Vaccination and Koplik's spots in English). Cross-correlation results were obtained as product-moment correlations between the two time series. Regarding the database with monthly data, temporal correlation was observed between the bulletin of ISS and Wikipedia search trends: the strongest correlation was at a lag of 0 for Measles (r=0.9164), Measles Vaccination (r=0.8622), MPR Vaccination (r=0.7852) and Koplik's spots (r=0.8217). Regarding the database with weekly data, both moderate and strong correlation was observed. A possible future application for programming and management interventions of Public Health is proposed.

Digital epidemiology: assessment of measles infection through Google Trends mechanism in Italy.

The primary aim of this study is to evaluate the temporal correlation between Google Trends and the data on measles infection arising from the conventional surveillance system, reported by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità's (ISS) bulletin. Moreover, this study is also aimed at forecasting the trends of the reported infectious diseases cases over time. The reported cases of measles were selected from January 2013 until October 2018. The data on Internet searches have been obtained from Google Trends; the research data referred to the first 48 weeks of year 2017 have been aggregated on a weekly basis. The search volume provided by Google Trends has a relative nature and is calculated as a percentage of query related to a specific term in connection with a determined place and time-frame. The statistical analyses have been performed by using the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (rho). The statistical significance level for such analyses has been fixed in 0.05. We have observed a strong correlation at a lag of 0 to -4 weeks (rho > 0.70) with the cases reported by ISS with the strongest correlation at a lag of -3 weeks (rho > 0.80 both for measles than for the symptoms of the measles). The database containing monthly data has shown a moderate correlation at a lag of -1 to +1 months and a strongest correlation at a lag of -1 (rho = 0.6152 for measles and rho = 0.5039 for symptoms of the measles). The surveillance systems based on Google Trends have a potential role in public health in order to provide near real-time indicators of the spread of infectious diseases. Therefore the huge potential of this approach could be used in the immediate future as a support of the traditional surveillance systems.