Mining Investment Research Articles

Afghanistan's mineral fortune: prospects for fuelling a green transition?

Abstract Research conducted over the last four decades emphasizes the growing importance of Afghanistan's mineral resources as a potential driver for economic growth. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimates this fortune could be worth as much as $900 billion USD in key metals and materials essential for the energy transition. However, a protracted civil war, corruption, absent or deficient infrastructure and extreme water stress prevent the extractive sector from becoming a key pillar of the Afghan economy. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of Afghanistan's mineral fortune and the prospects and obstacles of mining post-US withdrawal under Taliban rule. Five core components are provided in this analysis. First, a historical overview of Afghanistan's mineral resource development will be presented. Tapping into Afghanistan's mineral fortune requires a deep understanding of the Afghan people, and countries should not view investment through only a political risk lens, but rather take a holistic approach that incorporates environmental and social governance by giving a fair portion of the mineral wealth to the Afghan people. Second, a brief overview of the key mineral deposits and research conducted into Afghanistan's reserves will be provided. This paper builds on previous research identifying six specific provinces and deposits with the highest mineral production potential (MPP) from the original 24 areas of interest (AOIs) provided by USGS. Third, the authors emphasize the importance of water for the future of Afghanistan's mining sector and the nexus with water (in)security dynamics that will impact the stability of the country if overlooked. Overlaying various Geographic Information Systems (GIS) maps (watersheds, food insecurity, water stress, geohazards and water depletion) helps identifying which of the six provinces with highest mineral production potential has the highest risk of water (in)security threats from mining. Fourth, we provide a review of the current security and mining landscape under the Taliban regime, and the challenges and opportunities for investment in the country. China's growing interest in Afghanistan and warming relations with the Taliban beg the question what role Beijing will play, if any, as the next intervening power in Afghanistan's history. Finally, this chapter concludes with some general policy recommendations for moving forward in the context of a post-US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Investment in Afghan mining is an investment in the Afghan people.

The Expected Effect of Korea-Mongolia FTA and EPA

On December 30, 2021, the Mongolian government enacted a “New Revitalization Policy” to accelerate economic development and enhance the effectiveness of the long-term development policy “Vision 2050” after the COVID-19. Mongolia is currently a member of the Japan-Mongolia Economic Partnership Agreement and the Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement(APTA). The joint research on the Economic Partnership Agreement with Korea-Mongolia and Mongolia-China are completed. Joint research of a free trade agreement with Mongolia and EEU(Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and Kyrgyzstan) is in progress. Economic cooperation between Korea and Mongolia is not showing good results compared to current political, social, and cultural cooperation. The expected effects of the conclusion of the Economic Partnership Agreement can be summarized as follows. First, if the tariff barriers on Korea-Mongolia trade are gradually resolved through the conclusion of the economic partnership agreement, the volume of trade is expected to increase significantly. Second, the inclusion of special information on investment in the bilateral economic partnership agreement is expected to improve Korea’s FDI environment with Mongolia, and increase investment in mining, agriculture and infrastructure and SMEs. As the tree planting campaign is a nationwide campaign, demand for forestry machines, equipments, and irrigation systems is expected to expand gradually. Korea has become a representative country that has succeeded in foresting project of Mindungsan(bald mountain). Korea’s forest diplomacy also played a major role in fields such as greening projects, desertification prevention projects, carbon emissions, and global warming climate countermeasures on the international stage. The “Planting 1 Billion Trees” campaign to respond to climate change in Mongolia can be an opportunity for Korean companies.

Integrated Responsibility Due to Mining Activities to Environmental Crisis: Capturing Pers Opinion in Environmental Issues

This article was written so that investors could examine the obligations of the central government, territorial legislatures, financial backers, and the general public as a result of mining exercises during natural disasters. To recognize ecological justice, aggregate awareness must be demonstrated and acknowledged. Additionally, a lack of ecological issues can lead to multi-aspect emergencies like an increase in financial disparities and a decline in environmental quality. Ecological security is mandated by the 1945 Republic of Indonesia Constitution in Article 33 Paragraph 4, which takes into account carrying capacity standards and natural knowledge that is proportional to the people's economy. The methodology of this paper is qualitative. It deals with the legal problems that are happening right now. Green businesses have not yet been fully recognized by specific regulations. As a result, achieving a sense of fairness and legal certainty as a legitimate and desirable development will encourage the region to switch to control, long-term investments as a means of addressing the environmental crisis. It is everyone's responsibility to lessen the negative effects of mining investments in Indonesia, particularly on the environment.

Coal Mining Investment Opportunities in Indonesia on Goverenment Regulation Number 3 of The Year 2020 Concerning Mineral and Coal Mining

The coal mining industry has part of the important economic role to support National Budgeting government, therefor need to support haven’t overlapped by the regulation, to support easy in permitted so it will able to feel more the value-added for government, nation, and society. The coal mining industry still has an important role in supporting the State Budget, for that it needs to be supported through non-overlapping regulations, providing convenience in licensing so that the benefits for the nation, state and society can be felt.

Development of Economic Tools for Stabilizing the Regional Economy: the Case of Yaroslavl Oblast

The article deals with the issue of economic sustainability of the subnational economy. The aim of the study is to identify tools for stabilizing the regional economy. The Russian region - the Yaroslavl Oblast - was chosen for the study. To achieve the aim, methods of correlation and regression analysis used applied. A study of the effectiveness of investments in various sectors of the economy of the Yaroslavl region has demonstrated that investments in mining and construction give the greatest profit. Modernization of production in order to increase labor productivity at the present stage will not lead to a significant increase in the profits of the economy of the Yaroslavl Oblast - it is much more efficient to invest in construction and mining.

Large-scale Extractive Industries in Madagascar: Perceived Social-ecological Impacts of Operational and Exploratory Foreign Mining Investments

Large-scale Extractive Industries in Madagascar: Perceived Social-ecological Impacts of Operational and Exploratory Foreign Mining Investments

Performance of different models in iron ore price prediction during the time of commodity price spike

Future prediction of commodity price based on available data is very important for mining investors and operators. Commodity prices cointegrate and show Granger causality to and from one another. This research reviewed five different estimation techniques which are Bivariate Non-Linear Regression (BNLR), Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Multiple Non-Linear Regression (MNLR) as well as logsig and tansig model of Levenberg-Marquardt Artificial Neural Network modelling to simulate the future iron ore price based on 12 other monthly commodity prices and indices including LNG, aluminium, nickel, silver, Australian coal, zinc, gold, oil, tin, copper, lead, and Commodity Price Index (Metals).Six different models were tested in the paper to forecast the iron ore prices from 1 to 6 months over 10 months period. Linear model (purelin) using Levenberg-Marquardt technique was able to exhibit the best forecast result with average accuracy of 5.92% for 1 month ahead, 9.48% for 2 months, 11.21% for 3 months, etc. It is important to highlight that high accuracy is achieved (accuracy under 5% between forecasts and actuals in 40–50% cases) by purelin model for up to 2 months forecast for the period between July 2020 and April 2021. This indicates that prediction of iron ore price for the coming month is possible for up to 2 months period using the purelin model. It can be noted that the period tested was unstable for iron ore prices where rapid surge in iron ore price was observed. Same principle can be applied in the time of next commodity price cycle.

Risk Evaluation of Overseas Mining Investment Based on a Support Vector Machine

Analyzing the general method of establishing a support vector machine evaluation model, this paper discusses the application of this model in the risk assessment of overseas mining investment. Based on the analysis of the risk assessment index system of overseas mining investment, the related parameters of the optimal model were ascertained by training the sample data of 20 countries collected in 2015 and 2016, and the investment risk of 8 test samples was evaluated. All 8 samples were correctly identified, with an error rate of 0. South Africa’s mining investment risk in 2016 was assessed using the risk evaluation model for overseas mining investment based on a support vector machine, and it was rated as grade IV (general investment risk). The results show that the model can provide a new solution for the judgment and deconstruction of the risk of overseas mining investment.

Governance on lithium mining shareholdings: expanding Environment, Social and Governance (ESG) indicators to economic regulation and raw material politics

‘Environment, Social and Governance’ (ESG) considerations have received increasing attention as components that inform responsible investments in mining and global material supply. In ESG, governance variables have been mostly regarded as internal firm structures and broad national institutional strength, neglecting closer observations on economic regulation and national raw material politics. Improved governance data to support ESG evaluations should include historical and current relations between public governance bodies and private-sector firms. This paper examines the role of competition regulation agencies in weighing out and mediating relations between the State and multinational private-sector mining firms to unpack components that affect governance in mining. It does so by commenting on empirical data of the purchase held in 2018 of SQM shares—the world’s second largest lithium raw materials supplier—by Tianqi Lithium—one of the largest lithium materials producers in China. The paper discusses the place of equity markets in politics of nation-making and economic regulation in mining. It argues that beyond internal corporate structures, the governance criteria in the ESG profile of mining companies are largely affected by domestic economic regulation maturity, domestic political geography histories of private equity and imageries of corporate shares and natural resources. Furthermore, this paper argues that the effective governance of lithium supply in Chile is affected by political tensions between economic regulation and contractual regimes in mining.

Chinese firms must sell stakes in Canadian miners

The Canadian government is ordering some Chinese firms to sell their stakes in three small Canadian lithium miners, arguing that the investments pose a threat to national security. Sinomine (Hong Kong) Rare Metals Resources must sell its shares in Power Metals; Chengze Lithium International must divest from Lithium Chile; and Zangge Mining Investment must sell its ownership in Ultra Lithium. Other Chinese investments have passed Canadian government scrutiny in recent years. In February of this year, Zijin Mining Group acquired the Canadian firm Neo Lithium. And in 2018, Canadian fertilizer giant Nutrien sold its 24% stake in Chile’s SQM to China’s Tianqi Lithium. Canada is developing a critical minerals strategy to help it play a larger role in the battery supply chain. But Howard Klein, president of the lithium advisory firm RK Equity, calls the government’s recent decision counterproductive. He’d rather see funding for Canadian mining projects. “There are sticks

Science Education and Bureaucratization of Fieldwork

The establishment of a network of collaborators in nineteenth-century Serbia, dedicated to scientific rock specimen collecting, required ongoing negotiation with the state administration over allocation of resources, including the mobilization of state clerks. In this period, Serbia’s state-building involved, among other things, considerable investments in science education and mining. By appealing to the state’s educational goals, Jovan Žujović managed to organize collecting through the network of schools, whose professors occasionally sent specimens to him. Various other state clerks, officers, and diplomats participated in this network as well, making field collecting practices situated by state administrative networks and contemporary nationalist ideologies. Through the collaborative and competitive intellectual efforts of scientific and non-scientific actors, fieldwork was co-produced as a politically contested space through the interplay of scientific, administrative, political, educational, and diplomatic initiatives that competed and collaborated within state-building projects.

Earning a social licence to operate (SLO): A conflicted praxis in sub-Saharan Africa's mining landscape?

Securing and maintaining a Social Licence to Operate (SLO) is fundamental to safeguarding mining investments, operations and the reputations of companies. This article critically examines the applicability of the concept of SLO to mining in sub-Saharan Africa. Using Ghana as a case study, the article provides a nuanced understanding of the context in which mining occurs in the region, and why the application of SLO to the region's mining environment is so problematic. The findings reveal that there are disagreements regarding the actual role an SLO plays in the region's mining setup’. There is a growing disparity between what mining companies purport to use the SLO for on the one hand, and the actual impact their social responsibility initiatives are having in the countries and communities that host their operations on the other hand. The paper calls for a radical shift in thinking on the precise role of the SLO in sub–Saharan Africa's mining landscape. For the SLO to function effectively, policymakers and mining executives should make conscientious efforts to factor the views of local communities into decisions regarding how it should be operationalised.

Quality control in tailings resource exploration at Havelock Mine, Eswatini

Quality assurance and quality control (or QAQC) plays a key role in safeguarding the level of confidence of the data generated during mineral exploration and mine development, and is also part of the reporting code requirements for resource estimation and reporting, as well as mining investment. Implementation of good policies and working protocols in quality management will result in the generation of reliable information, which is critical for decision-making on the future of the mining project. The use of certified reference materials, i.e., standard, blank, and duplicate samples, proves effective and efficient for ensuring the level of data confidence in terms of precision, accuracy, and sample contamination. This is well demonstrated by the practice of QC in the exploration programme for the chrysotile tailings storage facilities of Havelock Mine, using 1254 samples from 53 drill-holes. Different statistical tools were applied to analyse the assay results from these samples. The outcome substantiates that the QC practice established during the Havelock exploration project is aligned to best practice guidelines in the industry. The resource delineated indicates that the tailings material at Havelock could potentially become a significant source of supply to the global magnesium market.

Similarities and Proximity Symmetries for Decisions of Complex Valuation of Mining Resources in Anthropically Affected Areas

After 1990, when the economic system changed in Romania, the mining industry was the most controversial field from a productive-economic point of view and subject to reforms and transformations for efficiency. Currently (2022), there are nine main mining perimeters in which the production of useful, energetic, and nonenergetic mineral substances is operational, and in others it has decreased or stopped. Still active mining areas need economic and ecological assessments to identify similarities and proximity symmetries for informed exploitation decisions and feasible complex resource utilization. The main objective of our study is to define a framework for the theoretical and practical contribution to the substantiation of decisions and expressions of interest regarding future investments in mining projects for useful and energetic and non-energetic mineral substances in Romania. Investments in the mining industry are expensive, with major risks and subunit success rates for specific geotechnological conditions. The purpose of the research is to provide the methodology for using some variables of similarities from proximity mining deposits in the stage of exploitation or post-exploitation affected by anthropogenic activity in the national geological territory through a case study of Romania. With the help of statistical scales, the research results highlight that in the exploitation and post-mining perimeters in Romania, the states of “affect” and “post-affect” anthropic, respectively, of eco-economic damage are in a maximum proportion of approximately 36% in relation to the ideal situations of no affect. For a mining investment project, knowing similar or symmetrical exploitation and post-exploitation properties and situations, and from the geological deposits in the vicinity, premises are created for optimized strategic and tactical decisions, based on reality and, above all, for the provision of expressions of interest for new investments that have a programmed, expected success rate.

Medium- to long-term nickel price forecasting using LSTM and GRU networks

Recently, nickel is a critical metal for manufacturing stainless steel, rechargeable electric vehicle batteries, and alloys utilized in the state-of-the-art technologies. The use of more environmentally friendly electric vehicles has become widespread and brought tackling climate change to forefront, especially for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, the demand for rechargeable batteries that power electric vehicles and the need for the nickel in the production of these batteries will increase as well. In addition to those, nickel prices significantly impact mine investment decisions, mine planning, economic development of nickel companies, and countries that depend on nickel resources. However, there is uncertainty about how the nickel price will trend in the future, and the solution to this problem attracts the attention of researchers. For forecasting nickel price, this paper proposes recurrent neural networks-based on long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) networks, classified as deep learning algorithms. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used as the performance measure to compute the accuracy of the proposed techniques. As a result, it has been determined that the LSTM and GRU networks are very useful and successful in forecasting the nickel price variations owing to having average MAPE values of 7.060% and 6.986%, respectively. Furthermore, it has been observed that GRU networks surpassed the LSTM networks by 33% in terms of average computational time.

Global Equity Measurement Model

In this paper, we calculate the weight of each index through the entropy weight method and perform a regression analysis to obtain the WRSR value representing the comprehensive strength index (CSI). In addition, based on the salary distribution model, we use the linear asteroid mineral investment model to look forward to the future development trend. Finally, we use the gray prediction model GM(1,1) to predict the proportion of each condition in the next 10 years, and the future change with time is obtained by polynomial fitting.

Crony capitalist deals and investment in South Africa’s platinum belt: a case study of Anglo American Platinum’s scramble for mining rights, 1995–2019

ABSTRACT This article analyses how crony capitalism emerges as a solution to maintaining investment in platinum mining. Using a case study of platinum, the analytic narrative exploits the quasi-experimental design provided by the nationalisation of mineral rights to evaluate the relationship between mining investment and crony capitalism. Does the policy have the effects intended? This article argues that the answer is no because of the cronyism between mining capital and politically connected black elites. The institutionalisation of cronyism, coupled with low economic growth and shrinking market-based black economic empowerment opportunities, bolstered and legitimised capture of the state. The system of cronyism produced limited investment and limited black productive capital. Poor mining communities and mine workers have suffered from this cronyism, but have recently organised their power to control the operating environment, or the ‘social licence’ to operate.

The end of tax incentives in mining? Tax policy and mining foreign direct investment in Africa

AbstractAfrican countries generally cut corporate income tax (CIT) rates in the hopes of attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), whereas the effectiveness of tax rate reductions in attracting extractive industries FDI is controversial. This paper estimates the impact of the statutory CIT rate, as applied to mining companies, on FDI inflows to the gold and silver sectors of African economies. The estimation results indicate that the impact of the mining CIT rate on the host country's gold and silver FDI inflows is negative, but not statistically significant, at the conventional levels of significance. These results suggest that cuts in the CIT rate applied to mining companies will not necessarily attract FDI to gold and silver projects. Moreover, we find a strategic complementarity in gold and silver FDI inflows between countries, suggesting that an increase in the host country's gold and silver FDI inflows may stimulate FDI to gold and silver projects in neighbouring countries. Furthermore, the results show that infrastructure, government stability and gold and silver reserves positively affect gold and silver FDI inflows. The main findings of the paper suggest that, instead of granting corporate tax incentives, governments may consider improving the quality of socio‐economic infrastructure, the availability of geological information and promoting political and economic stability for attracting mining investments.

Data Mining, Non-Stationarity And Entropy Investment Implications

This paper presents a high-level, intuitive, analysis of the relation between data mining, non-stationarity, and entropy. It then turns to a discussion of their implications for practical investment management. The bottom line is that skepticism regarding investment strategies is warranted.

Geological potential of antimony, bauxite, fluorite, and magnesite of the Central Dinarides (Bosnia and Herzegovina): exploration and exploitation perspective

This paper presents the critical raw materials (CRM) potential of antimony, bauxite, fluorite, and magnesite deposits in Bosnia and Herzegovina, discusses their metallogeny and joint geological features, and explains the methodology of the InvestRM application and evaluation criteria for the selected commodities in the following steps: (1) preparation of the geological data templates, (2) evaluation and verification of the geological data, (3) ranking of deposits according to the geological data relating to quality and quantity, and (4) identification of the 10+ perspective deposits. Existing geological datasets show the existence of significant potential in primary CRM such as bauxite (56 Mt), magnesite (4 Mt), and antimony (0.2 Mt) in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). The geological settings of BiH provide favourable metallogenetic conditions primarily for bauxite and magnesite deposits but also for antimony within polymetallic deposits, while fluorspar is rather rare. Our methodology described herein led to the selection of the following fourteen deposits for further geological prospection and investment: the polymetallic antimony deposits Čemernica and Podhrusanj, antimony fields Srebrenica and Rupice; magnesite fields Kladanj, Banja Luka, Teslić and Novi Šeher and bauxite regions Vlasenica-Srebrenica, Grmeč Mountain deposits in Una-Sana region and South Bosnia regions from Posušje to Trebinje. A basic economic calculation based on the world producer ranking and a self-sustainability and economic contribution assessment shows that further investments in geological exploration and mining of antimony, magnesite, and bauxite CRM could place BiH on the list of important producers of these commodities in Europe.