Mining Investment Research Articles

A Resource History of US-China Rapprochement

Abstract Facing the prospect of dual crises in domestic production and international supply of oil in the 1970s, Washington looked to an unlikely new source: The People’s Republic of China. Reputable American analysts at the time assessed that China’s near offshore contained reserves on par with the Persian Gulf region. Three consecutive administrations in Washington seriously considered China one geoeconomic “fix” to pressing concerns about concentrated resource dependency, first for oil then later for metals and minerals. During the Nixon Administration, fears of overdependency on producer nations encouraged this turn. By Carter’s time, officials maintained a more expansive view of China’s mineral potential and were committed to transcending oil dependencies partly via a program of investment in Chinese minerals. Though China now represents Washington’s gravest point of dependency, rather than its soundest escape, the fulcrum of the US-China economic relationship today remains the same as in the 1970s: foreign resource dependency.

Investment Feasibility Analysis Using Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Method (Case Study: Gold Mine in Pit A PT XYZ)

Investment in the mining sector carries a high risk, so a comprehensive financial evaluation is required to ensure project feasibility. This study assesses the financial feasibility of gold mining investment in Pit A, PT XYZ, for the period 2025 to 2036. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the feasibility of the project through the analysis of key financial indicators such as Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Payback Period (PBP) using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method. The DCF method was chosen due to its ability to project future cash flows and incorporate them into a comprehensive assessment of the potential benefits and risks of the project. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted to see the effect of changes in important variables such as revenue, cost of goods sold (COGS), and capital expenditure (capex) on the financial results of the project. The results show that the project is financially viable, with a positive NPV of US$404.16 million, an IRR of 52.10%, and a PBP of 3.32 years, all of which indicate a strong return on investment. Further sensitivity analysis shows that the project remains robust under various scenarios of changes in key variables. This study contributes to the investment evaluation literature in the mining sector by offering a more integrated approach to addressing investment uncertainty and risk through the combined use of the DCF method and sensitivity analysis.

Impact of investments in mining on economic growth of Krasnoyarsk Krai

Aim. To evaluate the impact of investments in mineral extraction on the economic growth of Krasnoyarsk Krai using the dynamics of data for 2004–2021.Objectives. To prepare initial data for modeling in comparable prices; to build statistical models with a time lag; to determine the multiplier and gas pedal coefficients of investment; to demonstrate the possibilities of applying the obtained dependencies.Methods. The authors used the method of economic and mathematical modeling, in particular the calculation of socio-economic indicators using mathematical statistics. The regression model was built using the initial data that meet the requirements of comparability and homogeneity, are relevant and statistically reliable.Results. Dependencies reflecting the investment multiplier effect, i.e. the increase in the gross regional product (GRP) and the volume of shipped products in response to the increase in investment in mining were obtained. Dependencies reflecting the investment gas pedal effect are also obtained, showing how increased income affects the size of investment. The dependencies are applied to solve a number of practical problems.Conclusions. It has been established that investments in mining in Krasnoyarsk Krai have an impact on the growth of GRP and the volume of shipped products. The return on investment has a temporary character. The strongest impact of investments in the current year have on the growth of GRP and shipped products for the next year. The multiplier coefficient is 2.72. Increased income affects the size of investments: the growth of income from mining stimulates the growth of induced investments in the following year with the multiplier coefficient, which is equal to 0.14. The comparison of actual values of investments in mineral resources extraction and volume of shipped products with the target values laid down in the Strategy of socioeconomic development of the region until 2030 has been carried out. The target values, according to the Strategy, are determined with the help of the obtained dependencies. It was established that the actual volume of investments is sufficient to ensure the GRP growth in accordance with the Strategy at the first stage; to ensure growth at the second stage it is necessary to increase investments by 12–15 % annually; to ensure growth at the third stage it is necessary to increase investments by 9–13 % annually from the current state. In order to ensure the values of indicators on the volume of production provided for in the Strategy, it is necessary to increase output by 4–6 % annually compared to 2021.

Why do we argue about risk? The invisibility of worldviews in marine decision-making

The paper asks “why are we always arguing about risk?” It explores what drives risk perception in decision-making processes in Aotearoa New Zealand’s marine environment. The research’s holistic framing shows that the prevailing concern with risk and uncertainty (RU) issues in government and managerial settings deflects attention from and hides the background influences of worldviews. After introducing the invisibilities around RU and outlining worldview-based perceptions of risk, the paper turns to an empirical investigation focusing on deep-seabed mining investment in the context of Aotearoa’s Exclusive Economic Zone and Continental Shelf Act (Environmental Effects) 2012. Enacted as part of neoliberal reforms, the Act seeks to reduce environmental degradation in tandem with economic growth. A situated methodology examines a consenting process within this Act as a strategic site to establish expressions of RU and shaping invisibilities. Three key influences are revealed: the positionality of decision-makers, their disciplinary training, and the largely unknown filtering of environmental and economic options that come from 3 worldviews held in Aotearoa (dominant social paradigm, new environmental paradigm, Te Ao Māori). We contend hidden worldviews impact on economy–environment relations and ensuing economic and environmental practices and outcomes. This arises because they underpin and fuel debates around what RU are acceptable and how benefits should be distributed (public vs. private benefits investment decisions, and economy vs. environment). Unless we recognize and understand these hidden influences, we simply cannot work with them. This insight has major implications for how RU ideas might be framed and navigated in emerging policy settings.

Analyzing the socially sustainable impacts of private investments in the mining sector in rural areas

This study examines the effect of private investment in the mining sector on social sustainability across nine ASEAN countries from 2005 to 2021 using the CS-ARDL panel data approach. The results indicate a negative relationship between private mining investment and social sustainability, with reductions of 0.15% in the short term and 0.59% in the long term, due to environmental degradation, income inequality, and economic volatility. A 1% increase in rural GDP also leads to declines in social sustainability by 0.03% and 0.17% in the short and long term, respectively, underscoring the need for eco-friendly economic activities. Additionally, inflation reduces social sustainability, while rural internet access significantly improves it. To encourage sustainable investment, policies should focus on green finance, sustainable literacy, risk mitigation, and rural economic growth aligned with sustainable development principles.

Advancing mineral-energy nexus for development (MEND) in Africa: A case study of Chinese lithium mining project in Zimbabwe

Providing sustainable energy solutions for critical mineral investments presents significant challenges, particularly in the context of resource-rich but energy-poor countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We developed an analytical framework to understand the role of the mineral-energy nexus in delivering developmental co-benefits (MEND). We identified four criteria of developmental co-benefits, namely (1) local electrification, (2) climate mitigation (via renewable energy technologies), (3) enhanced ‘last mile’ power infrastructures, and (4) re-distributive revenues for power sector reforms. By applying this framework to a case study of Chinese lithium mining investment in Zimbabwe, we illustrated the innovative potentials of the investors on the ground, the urgent need to nurture collaborative networks and risk-sharing mechanisms for local electrification, and the lack of regulatory and financial support for the investments on mineral-energy nexus.

Do bitcoin electricity consumption and carbon footprint exhibit random walk and bubbles? Analysis with policy implications

One of the main current focuses of global economies and decision-makers is the efficiency of energy utilization in cryptocurrency mining and trading, along with the reduction of associated carbon emissions. Understanding the pattern of Bitcoin's energy consumption and its bubble frequency can greatly enhance policy analysis and decision-making for energy efficiency and carbon emission reduction. This research aims to assess the validity of the random walk hypothesis for Bitcoin's electricity consumption and carbon footprint. We employed both traditional methods (ADF and KPSS) and recently proposed unit root techniques that account for structural breaks and non-linearity in the data series. Our analysis covers daily data from July 2010 to December 2021. The empirical results revealed that traditional unit root techniques did not confirm the stationarity of both bitcoin's electricity consumption and carbon footprint. However, novel structural break (SB) and linearity tests conducted enabled us to discover five SB episodes between 2012 and 2020 and non-linearity of the variables, which informed our application of the newly developed non-linear unit root tests with structural breaks. With the new methods, the results indicated stationarity after accommodating the SB and non-linearity. Furthermore, based on Phillips and Shi (2019)'s test, we identified certain bubble episodes in the bitcoin energy and carbon variables between 2013 and 2021. The major drivers of the bubbles in bitcoin energy consumption and carbon footprint are variables relating to the bitcoin and financial markets activities and risks, including the global economic and political risks. The study's conclusion based on the above findings informs several policy implications drawn for energy and environmental management including the encouragement of green investments in cryptocurrency mining and trading.

Contemporary and Future Secondary Copper Reserves of Vietnam

As ASEAN countries, including Vietnam, approach the living standards of developed countries, their copper demand is set to rise. This study investigates Vietnam’s copper stock and flow from 1995 to 2050, employing dynamic material flow analysis and five socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSPs). Based on this, the secondary copper reserves of Vietnam were assessed. The results showed that the domestic copper demand is expected to grow to 526–1062 kt, resulting in a rapid increase in scrap generation. In 2022, Vietnam’s secondary copper reserves stood at 2.2 Mt and are projected to reach 6.8–8.6 Mt by 2050 under the SSP2 scenario. This corresponds to 3.6–4.6 times the 1.8 Mt primary copper reserve of Vietnam. However, these primary and secondary reserves cannot meet the cumulated demand by 2050. On the other hand, a large amount of copper, 8.9 Mt to 10 Mt, will become difficult-to-recover resources, such as waste in landfill sites, dissipated materials, or mixed metal loss. To promote the sustainable use of copper in Vietnam, we recommend increased geological expedition and mining investment, and improved waste management systems related to secondary resources.

Mining in investment arbitration: an analysis of mining companies’ legitimate expectations

Abstract International investment agreements (IIAs) can be ‘obstacles’ to the green transition, but can also serve as potential ‘enablers’ of clean energy. This article analyses the role of IIAs in protecting mining investments, necessary to develop green technologies in the fight against climate change. As a result of increasing mineral extraction, more investment tribunals adjudicate mining disputes. The article provides a sectoral analysis of the legitimate expectations of investors in the mining sector. It argues that domestic norms are central to resolving investment treaty disputes and that investment tribunals must consider environmental and human rights domestic norms which impose limits on investment protection and configure investor’s property rights. Only by doing so can investment tribunals protect investments in accordance with the ethos of IIAs of promoting sustainable development.

Development of an Economic Cost Model for Gold and Associated Minerals Using Economic Analysis and Artificial Intelligence Approach

Limited accuracy due to complex geological processes, insufficient data granularity, and challenges in predicting market dynamics impact mineral forecast models. In order to develop a cost-based model for gold and related minerals in Birnin Gwari (Kaduna State) and Kagara (Niger State), this study is being carried out in Nigeria. The created concept aims to increase the profitability and economic viability of open-pit mines operated by craftsmen and mining investors. By maximizing mine life cycles and preventing the early closure of mining sites, this was intended to encourage the best recovery rates. This study used economic and artificial neural network (ANN) modeling methods to create a cost-based model for ten gold-associated minerals. The coefficient of correlation (R2), root mean square error (RSME), and variance accounting factor (VAF) were used to assess the created model's correctness. The model evaluator demonstrates that the proposed cost-based models are economically viable and the quantitative results are as presented in Equations (14-23). The cost-benefit connection between gold and the ten related minerals was also determined using a least-squares regression analysis. According to geochemical results, the average values of gold and related minerals in the study region range from 4.87 g/t of gold (Au), 1.501 g/t of copper (Cu), and 187.13 g/t of iron (Fe) in Birni Gwari to 2.29 g/t of gold (Au), 1.358 g/t of copper (Cu), and 173.75 g/t of iron (Fe) in Kagara. In Birnin Gwari, the equivalent financial estimations are N876,600 for Au, N60,040,000 for Cu, and N1,129,375 for Fe, and N5,780,000 for Au, N49,500 for Cu, and N363,060,000 for Fe in Kagara. The model's scope demonstrates that running a single mineral can result in low recovery rates and a loss of profit margin; thus, the model's application to all open pit mines is relevant as a reference for profit margin cash flow.

Financial warning for coal mining investments: Evidence from the fruit fly optimisation algorithm with backpropagation neural networks

Venture capital firms may be unable to withstand the high investments and risks associated with coal mining exploration due to limitations in the funding scale. Risk control capability is also a challenge for venture capital companies. Finding a balance between high-risk and high-return coal mining exploration projects is a problem that venture capital companies must face. We propose a financial risk-warning model for coal mining investment enterprises based on the fruit fly optimisation algorithm (FOA) with the backpropagation neural network (BPNN). The fusion of standardised and dimensionless sample data through factor analysis reduces the input dimension of the BPNN and improves its stability. The financial warning algorithm of the model has been effectively validated through experiments. The research results indicate that its accuracy has reached a high level of financial warning, reaching a level of 95%.

Peat mine as a threat to the diversity of aquatic beetles (Coleoptera: Dytiscidae) in the protected area Nature 2000 in Poland.

Peatlands, shaped by centuries of human activities, now face a primary threat from mining activities. Vulnerable to drainage and hydrological instability, peatland areas encounter challenges that compromise their ecological integrity. This study hypothesised that permanent water reservoirs within mines could serve as refugia for water beetles from adjacent areas prone to drying in the summer. Employing standard methods, including entomological scraping and water traps, samples were collected. Results revealed that, in most cases, water beetles exhibited a preference for the Nature 2000 area untouched by mining. Despite unfavourable conditions, the Nature 2000 area showcased a more diverse water beetle fauna. Remarkably, the selected Nature 2000 area, despite its identified degradation based on flora, remained a biodiversity hotspot for peatland water beetle fauna. The study underscores the significance of assessing insects, particularly beetles, as rapid responders to environmental changes. This evaluation holds crucial implications for peatland restoration planning and decision-making regarding mining investments in proximity to peatland areas.

Integrated management of abatement technology investment and resource extraction

As the need for increased renewable energy generation to meet climate goals grows, so does the demand for critical minerals in the industrial sector. This raises concerns about the availability of supply and the reliability of investment in critical minerals. Based on this, the study proposes an analytical framework for the integrated management of mineral extraction and renewable energy investments. Different from the previous strategy of separate management, this study has established an integrated model that utilizes new energy technology as the downstream application of emission reduction technology. It also utilizes copper, zinc, aluminum, rare earth elements, and other materials as the upstream raw material supply. In terms of minimizing costs, the entire supply chain process is optimized to achieve an empirical case. In addition, considering the significant uncertainty in the process of reducing emissions from new energy technologies, this study also incorporated a forward control stochastic programming method to model and solve it. We obtained confidence intervals for optimal technological investment paths and metal mining paths under various scenarios. Our findings indicate that: (1) Biomass, as a renewable energy technology with the lowest resource demand, should be prioritized for development. However, there is significant uncertainty surrounding the installed capacity of photovoltaics. (2) Copper ore reserves have little impact on the development of renewable energy technologies, while zinc ore and aluminum ore have a greater impact on wind energy and photovoltaics, respectively. (3) By optimizing the cut-off ratio of raw ore under a specific amount of ore storage, we can ensure the availability of materials needed for downstream energy technology.

The Influence of Geological Potential and Investment Climate on Botswana’s Competitiveness

Objective: This article's objective is to evaluate Botswana's attractiveness to investors in mineral exploration. Botswana's competitiveness and ability to attract exploration and mining investment have declined in recent years. Method: Questionnaires were used as part of a mixed methodology to collect data that was subjected to empirical analysis. From a possible 231 respondents including exploration and mining companies, mining consultants, a research firm, and a mining association, a representative sample of 100 were chosen and given the survey through a stratified random sampling process. The data was analyzed using SPSS and both descriptive and inferential analyses were utilized. Result: This study finds that Botswana is only moderately successful in luring exploration investment. Botswana's ability to entice exploration investment is influenced by factors including the country's political stability, mining tax, mineral policy, license approval, quality of geological data, availability of skilled labor, adequate infrastructure, a streamlined licensing process, effective relevant institutions, and clear rules and regulations. Conclusion: The study recommends that Botswana regulators should consider improving mining tax incentives and continue removing bureaucratic requirements that delay the licensing process, as this may result in a more favorable mining environment that encourages both domestic and international mining interests.

Nickel Price Projection Using Multivariate Regression Method and Investment Feasibility Analysis of Nickel Mining in Indonesia with Sensitivity Analysis and Monte Carlo

Nickel is one of the metals commonly used in various industries. Indonesia is one of the countries that has the largest nickel reserves in the world. Nickel prices will be formed through an equilibrium mechanism between production supply and nickel demand. This study will analyse the relationship between nickel price formation, supply, and demand. Nickel prices will also affect the feasibility of nickel mining investment in Indonesia. The data used in this study consists of market data derived from historical reports of the last 5 – 12 years (2010 – 2022) and mining plan assumptions derived from benchmarks with similar industries. The methods used in this analysis are multivariate regression, discounted cash flow, sensitivity analysis, and Monte Carlo simulation. The results of the analysis that have been carried out show the relationship between nickel supply and demand with prices, with estimated nickel price projection ranging from $16,750 / Ton – to $18,927 / Ton. The factors that most influence the feasibility of mining investment are nickel price, sales realization, water content, contractor costs, and fuel costs. The risk of nickel mining investment in Indonesia based on Monte Carlo simulations is estimated at around 11.36%. This shows that nickel mining investment in Indonesia is still very attractive.

FinTech revolution in mineral management: Exploring the nexus between technology adoption and sustainable Resource utilization in an industry 4.0 context

This study investigates the impact of FinTech adoption on sustainable mineral management policies in Australia within the context of Industry 4.0, using quarterly data from 1990Q1 to 2022Q4. Employing the ARDL-Bounds testing approach, Granger causality analysis, and innovation accounting matrix, the research finds a short-term positive association between FinTech adoption, technological readiness, and green mineral extraction. However, both in the short and long run, investment in sustainable mining technologies, government support for FinTech in mining, and environmental compliance exhibit a negative relationship with resource management. Bidirectional causality is observed between regulatory support for mining FinTech, technological finance solutions, and environmentally conscious mineral practices, while unidirectional causality exists from FinTech adoption to sustainable mining practices. Impulse response functions offer insights into the future impact of variables on eco-conscious mining policies, indicating positive influences from FinTech adoption, government support for FinTech in mining, and technological adaptability over the next decade. Conversely, eco-friendly mining investments, environmental conformity, and social license to operate will impact sustainable mineral utilization. Variance decomposition analysis highlights the most significant shocks on eco-friendly resource management over the next ten years, emphasizing the role of sustainable mining technologies, FinTech adoption, and public support for mining endeavours. In the transition to Industry 4.0, this research provides crucial insights for responsibly utilizing Australia's natural resources by leveraging financial technology and technological readiness.

Costly Signaling and China's Strategic Engagement in Arctic Regional Governance

In recent years, China has become an increasingly important actor in Arctic regional governance. While Beijing consistently frames its engagement in the region as a strategy of mutually-beneficial cooperation, some Arctic countries have raised significant concerns about its growing economic presence, warning that China may leverage its geopolitical influence to change the existing norms and rules in the polar region. Facing the mounting “China threat” skepticism, what are Beijing’s coping strategies to belie concerns? Based on a review of the existing research and government documents, particularly Chinese-language scholarly works and official reports, this article specifically identifies two types of costly signaling approaches employed by China to reduce Arctic countries’ distrust. First, China has started to curtail its Arctic investment in oil, gas, and mining while engaging more in sectors that chime well with Western societies’ global environmental values, including clean and renewable energy, ecological research that addresses further climatic change associated with global warming, and other environmentally sustainable industries. Second, Beijing has increasingly involved in regional international organizations, such as the Arctic Council, to signal its willingness to exercise state power under institutional constraints. These approaches aim to send a series of costly signals to conventional Arctic states, reassuring them that China is not a revisionist power that pursues hegemony in the region. Taken together, our findings have both scholarly and policymaking implications to understand China’s participation in Arctic regional governance.

Constitutional balance: Synchronizing energy and environmental policies with socio-economic mandates

Article 33 of the 1945 Constitution (UUD 1945) has been a focal topic of normative legal study because of the tension it highlights between the competing goals of economic efficiency and social fairness. Public policy, particularly in the areas of energy and the environment, is impacted by this problem. Article 33 of the 1945 Constitution requires the government to exercise control over natural resources. However, this provision sometimes leads to “constitutional extractivism,” which puts efficiency ahead of social justice and environmental sustainability. This problem is especially noticeable in Indonesia’s mining investments, where a concentration on economic expansion at the expense of environmental and social justice is a real risk. Conventional techniques that place too much emphasis on quantitative data or public engagement need to be abandoned in favour of renegotiating objectives in the socioeconomic agenda from a public policy viewpoint. Indicators of social justice and environmental sustainability should be acknowledged as critical factors in the new paradigm. More study is required to align energy and environmental policy with societal and economic imperatives. The effects on society and the environment must be included in any policy that seeks to promote the use of renewable energy. To ensure that policies are just and lasting, they should be evaluated and revised on a regular basis.

Investment in the Mining Sector: Revisiting the Challenges and Prospects in Tanzania

This article analyses the legal and regulatory frameworks regulating investment in the mining sector. The article notes that the Tanzanian mining sector has undergone various policy and legislative developments geared towards ensuring that the mining sector contributes greatly to national development. This article finds challenges in creating an investment-enabling environment as stipulated in the Mineral Policy 2009. The article advances the argument that Tanzania’s mining legal regime poses various challenges which affect the government’s ability to strike a balance between its interests to maximise revenue and protect the interests of the investors. In that regard, the article concludes that there is a need for amendments to essential laws governing mining investments in Tanzania to ensure that the rules align with Tanzania’s contractual commitments with the investors. As such, it recommends that the legislative changes to ensure the balance between the need to maximise benefits from natural resources and the protection of investors following the obligations that Tanzania has freely agreed to under international agreements cannot be overemphasised.

How are large-scale extractive industries affecting progress toward the sustainable development goals in Madagascar? Perceived social-ecological impacts of mining investments

The rapid worldwide increase in resource extraction is evident in Madagascar—a global biodiversity hotspot. This study examines the localized effects of operational and planned large-scale extractive investments on social-ecological systems in Madagascar and links them to the Sustainable Development Goals. The focus is on sites owned or explored by foreign investors, specifically Ambatovy Moramanga, Ambatovy Tamatave, QIT Madagascar Minerals/Rio Tinto, Ranobe, and Tantalum Rare Earth Malagasy. Employing a counterfactual approach, we gathered survey responses from 459 small-scale farming, agro-pastoral, and artisanal-fisheries-based households. The survey provided information on general household characteristics, land use, land management, livelihoods, well-being, and any perceived changes to these variables, as well as any perceived mining impacts related to the changes. Overall, respondents reported predominantly negative effects on land (and sea) use, livelihoods, well-being, and security. Mining pollution, primarily from operational sites, had reduced access to water and fisheries resources, and natural forest areas had diminished. Reduced productivity due to pollution of soils, water, and air had a negative impact on various land uses and affected people's health, particularly in the surroundings of QIT Madagascar Minerals/Rio Tinto. Although some projects, such as Ambatovy, had eventually improved healthcare and infrastructure, most negative mining impacts had occurred during both the exploratory and the operational phases of the projects. Overall, this study offers a comprehensive view of how large-scale extractive investments affect land (and sea) use and human well-being. In addition, we highlight policy implications that must be considered if large-scale extractive investments are to support progress on the 2030 Agenda.